Cubs 89, Milwaukee 83, St. Louis 82

In Uncategorized by myles427 Comments

 

OSS: The Cubs were a better baseball team than the Brewers or the Cardinals this year.

Three Up

1. Kris Bryant leads the NL in fWAR this year, with 6.7. His .295/.410/.539 line is very close to the trinity slash. When he broke into the league, he was a below average fielder who constantly lead Rizzo up the bag with his throws. He fixed that completely and is now among the second tier of third basemen defensively. He should probably be a repeat MVP, but certainly won't because of inertia and runs batted in.

2. Anthony Rizzo has walked more than he's struck out. He's hit 32 HR, the 4th consecutive year with 31 or 32 (which is sort-of hilarious). His BABIP is basically the only thing keeping him from down-ballot MVP consideration. Leader of men.

3. Acquired at the trade deadline, Jose Quintana has sort-of quietly been the best pitcher on the Cubs roster. In the 2nd half, he went 79.2 IP with a 3.50 ERA (3.38 FIP), with a 22% K-BB. That'll play. The Cubs were tied for the division lead when they acquired Quintana and won the division in no small part due to him. (takes a deep breath) I was probably wrong about advocating selling a month before the trade deadline.

Honorable Mentions: Willson Motherfucking Contreras, Carl Edwards Jr, El Mago, Wade Davis

Three Down (you'll see how much of a stretch you have to make for this)

1. Justin Grimm was a useful reliever for 3 years. He was a part (a small, small part) of a World Series winning team. I'll have fond memories of Justin Grimm. Justin Grimm will and should probably never throw another meaningful pitch for the Cubs again. The spike around baseball in HR is basically 10% accounted for on Justin Grimm appearances alone. Grimm basically traded 1.2 strikeouts per 9 innings for 1.2 home runs per 9 innings. 

2. The Brett Anderson Experience sounds like a really shitty jam band, but in reality it was just a really shitty pitcher for the Cubs. It's hard to fault the Cubs (or Anderson) too much, as all parties knew it was a longshot.

3. Ben Zobrist's days of a useful starting 2B are probably over. There is still some value in his utility, and he's a very serviceable supersub, but the diminution in his skills and value is fairly stark. At the beginning of the year, you probably could have traded him away for just his contract. Now, you would have to eat a pretty sizeable chunk. That's not overly important, but it's a clear demonstration of the type of year he's had.

Dishonorable Mentions: Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, the fact that Eloy Jimenez is going to be fucking incredible (seriously, he might the top prospect in baseball next year)

A Small Collection of Cardinal Tears (c/o Suburban Kid)

"Party on the mound should be a searing image branded in the brains of the Cardinals, who know that their approach is not working — and know that the Cubs clearly aren’t going away.

On Wednesday, the visual was startling. Halting. A piercing, fierce reminder of how bad things have gotten.

It is the first time an opposing team has ever clinched a division title at Busch Stadium III and the first time the Cubs have claimed any kind of title in St. Louis since 1938, the same year Superman debuted in comic books.

'It freaking (stinks),' Wacha said. 'You never want to see anybody celebrating on your own home field.'

The Cubs won all four of Lackey’s starts against his former team.

They built their berth on the Cardinals.

Tied in the standings the day they traded for Quintana, the Cubs have won 10 of their past 12 games against the Cardinals entering the season finale."

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  1. Perkins

    Cardinals Twitter is really not digging that the Cubs celebrated on the field. Seem to think it lacked class. They really have some weird masturbatory fascination with class, as though it’s exclusive to the Cardinals.

    But even if the Cubs were lacking in class, better to be a bit short on class than short on talent.

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  3. dmick89

    If the guy running the Cardinals twitter account doesn’t realize that any team would have celebrated like that (probably even worse), they haven’t watched baseball prior to yesterday.

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  6. SK

    When the Cardinals clinch on the road, they shake hands respectfully with the umpire crew chief and head groundskeeper before walking silently in single file to the showers, where they only use cold water and lye soap.

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  15. BVS

    Question:

    Considering Jake’s hammy is still a little blammy,
    and Lester’s shoulder is complaining ’cause it’s older,
    are you itching so see either one pitching
    in the series with the Reds?
    I’m ok with Tseng and Monty insteads.

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  23. SK

    BVS:
    berselius,

    Cubs Tweeted:
    Martín CF
    La Stella 2b
    Happ RF
    Avila C
    Schwarber LF
    Caratini 1B
    Davis 3B(wow, really dragging the barrel there)
    Freeman SS
    Hendricks

    Poor Kyle.

    This is so much better than beaning Carpenter.

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  26. SK

    My son is calling a Cubs-DBacks NLCS and a Cubs-Indians rematch.

    We’re also wondering who would have home field advantage in Cubs-DBacks since AZ will have a better record.

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  37. Perkins

    If Cubs make it to the NLCS and face the WC team, Cubs would have home field advantage by virtue of being a division winner, as the Mets did in 2015 when they had won fewer games than the Cubs.

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  39. Rizzo the Rat

    As I understand it, World Series HFA is determined by record alone, however. So, here’s hoping for a Cubs-Twins series.

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  40. Perkins

    BVS:
    berselius,

    Cubs Tweeted:
    Martín CF
    La Stella 2b
    Happ RF
    Avila C
    Schwarber LF
    Caratini 1B
    Davis 3B(wow, really dragging the barrel there)
    Freeman SS
    Hendricks

    Poor Kyle.

    Watch this lineup put up 7+ runs.

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  52. Perkins

    I actually was hoping the Cubs would do the same thing for the WC game in 2015, back when Justin Grimm was good. .With the expectation of 1-2 innings from each of (2015) Grimm, Strop, and (2015) Rondon, and the ability to mix in guys like Cahill and Wood, I thought it had a decent chance of succeeding.

    But that Arrieta shutout was pretty sweet, too.

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  56. Perkins

    dmick89,

    Schwarber has been worth 1.3 fWAR this year to Jay’s 1.6, which I find pretty remarkable since he was more than half a win below replacement at one point, and spent three weeks in AAA. Part of that is probably that he’s been protected more since being recalled, but I wouldn’t mind seeing him get more starts.

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  63. cerulean

    Perkins,

    My method for choosing the order of the starters is a complicated algorithm involving two silver dollars:

    Heads/Heads is Hendricks.
    Heads/Tails is Lester.
    Tails/Heads is Quintana.
    Tails/Tails is Arrieta.

    Really complicated.

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  66. Rizzo the Rat

    This game is almost annoying because I think Lynn should be paying more for his mistakes (and would against a normal lineup).

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  71. Perkins

    I’d consider starting Zobrist in RF and Schwarber in LF, then switching Zobrist over and bringing in Heyward if they have a lead. But Heyward has put together a few weeks of decent hitting, so maybe Joe tries to play the hot hand.

    I’d rather see Schwarber in the lineup since he can massacre baseballs, but I’m not sure he’ll get the start against Scherzer or Gonzalez. Maybe not even against Strasburg. Joe has been sitting him against lefties and really good righties. Even against ordinary righties a lot of the time, it seems.

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  74. Rizzo the Rat

    Lynn is pitching badly against a crappy lineup, but he’s mostly getting away with it because it’s a crappy lineup.

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  75. Rizzo the Rat

    No, JD, Ted Williams would not have passed Babe Ruth in home runs if he didn’t miss time due to military service.

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  91. Rizzo the Rat

    Even if the Cubs lose this one, it’s pretty funny that the Cardinals are having so much trouble with the Cubs’ B-squad.

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  132. Rizzo the Rat

    In fact, the Cardinals were 1 game behind the Giants with 4 games left and won all 4 games. But… so did the Giants.

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  133. cerulean

    At the beginning of the season, I thought things would have to go really wrong for them to finish with less than 90 wins. Things did go really wrong—they still got 90 wins.

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  146. Edwin

    The thing about Glennon is, he’s a game manager, he’s a leader. He’s plays smart, makes the right reads, and doesn’t turn the ball over. He might not make the plays to win the game, but he doesn’t lose the game either. Student of the game, very calm attitude, doesn’t get rattled.

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  147. Myles

    Edwin:
    The thing about Glennon is, he’s a game manager, he’s a leader.He’s plays smart, makes the right reads, and doesn’t turn the ball over.He might not make the plays to win the game, but he doesn’t lose the game either.Student of the game, very calm attitude, doesn’t get rattled.

    All I’m hearing is that he DOESN’T it leave it all on the field or give 100 percent out there.

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  148. dmick89

    “It just adds insult to injury,” Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter said. “It was just an ugly way to lose a game like that. The emotional side of that is what makes it tough because you think you’re back in it and the guy makes a great play.”

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  149. dmick89

    “This will be my first active year not participating in the postseason,” Lynn said. “It’s not a great feeling. But it happens sometimes. Hopefully next year I get that opportunity, wherever it may be.”

    I know his home run rate is up, but I’m not sure I’d expect it to stay that high. I wouldn’t mind if Lynn brought his talents to the north side.

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  150. dmick89

    “This is the first time I have to stand up here and say that [reaching the postseason] is just not going to happen. We fell short of what we wanted to do. — Cardinals manager Mike Matheny

    The first time since last season.

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  151. dmick89

    “Any time you don’t achieve what you set out for, it’s hard,” Matt Carpenter said. “You look at what goes into a season — how long it is, the preparation it takes to get ready for it, it doesn’t just start in Spring Training. It starts in the offseason. Really, any time you put on this uniform you have an opportunity to get into October, and to fall short of that is just not a good feeling. That’s what we’re experiencing today.”

    Didn’t Carpenter say just two weeks ago that it was starting to feel special?

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  152. dmick89

    “This month has been very exciting at times and very frustrating at times,” general manager Michael Girsch said. “In some ways, a synopsis of our season has been similar.”

    Said by every mediocre team ever.

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  153. dmick89

    “It’s just a frustrating, disappointing season as a team,” said Tommy Pham, a standout contributor all year. “When it’s all said and done, everyone has to really self-evaluate and find ways to get better for next season. We have to find ways individually and as a team to get better and be more well-rounded.”

    I’d suggest they get better as humans and stop intentionally hitting batters every single time they think something didn’t go their way.

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  154. dmick89

    “I think it’s obvious that this division is getting better,” Carpenter said. “The Cubs are a really good team. The Brewers are a really good team. Pittsburgh is not far away. And Cincinnati. To compete in this division, you have to be ready to play. We all have to do a better job.”

    I think the Cardinals have to worry about Cincinnati too. The Reds might pass the Cardinals next year.

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  156. Edwin

    dmick89,

    I think the Cardinals should still be solid next year. They have some nice depth with their position players, the big thing that sunk them this year was their pitching. I’m not sure what they have in the minors, but if they make a few nice signings this offseason, they could be right back to competing next season.

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  171. Rizzo the Rat

    They’re renaming the World Series MVP award after Willie Mays? Catch aside, his World Series numbers were disappointing.

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  180. dmick89

    I like it when they keep the award names simple. Most Valuable Player. Rookie of the Year. Those are obvious to anyone even if they know nothing about the sport.

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  181. Rizzo the Rat

    I don’t have a problem with honoring former greats in this way. It’s more colorful than simple descriptive titles. I just want them to pick relevant names if they do.

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  185. dmick89

    Rizzo the Rat,

    I don’t either, but we’re always going to end up where you have in this thread. Is the player deserving of that award? Mays was a great player. If they insist on honoring a player, he may not have had the greatest WS career, but it’s better than naming it after David Eckstein. Obviously you aren’t advocating that, but I’m sure someone will. Is Hank Aaron deserving of whatever award is based on him? I’d go with Babe Ruth or Ted Williams or even Barry Bonds over Aaron. Aaron probably isn’t even a top 15 or top 20 hitter all time. I’d take Votto over him.

    What happens in 50 or 100 years? There’s no way those names will change even though Aaron’s ranking will continue to fall. In 100 years he probably won’t even be a top 50 hitter.

    It sounds like I care a lot more than I do. This is more than I’ve discussed any award in baseball in five years so I really don’t give a shit what they call it. I’m perfectly fine if they pick David Eckstein.

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  201. Perkins

    cerulean,

    I wonder how he’d do as a Bosio reclamation project. But then a lot of the guys who did well after goimg to the Cubs were ones whose peripherals indicated positive regression. Harvey just looks awful all over.

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  207. BVS

    dmick89,

    Myles,

    Was talking to my student from UK today and he was commenting how Euro soccer players can force a trade by whining and sitting out. I can think of examples like that for NFL and NBA, but the only current example of an obvious malcontent in MLB I could name was Matt Harvey. Not that there aren’t others (Montero), but they seem far fewer.

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  208. dmick89

    BVS,

    I think teams are content to keep guys who want out as long as it still benefits them. An unhappy player in the nfl or nba may have a greater negative impact on the team or that’s my guess anyway.

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  209. Berselius is too lazy to log in

    dmick89,

    Teams may be warned off by his uncanny ability to look like a serial killer in each year’s official photo.

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  210. BVS

    dmick89,

    Agree. The individual nature of performance in baseball probably makes it more likely that a malcontent has to do well to get another team interested. In other sports, you can hide behind your teammates more.

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  213. Myles

    I’m all for signing Lance Lynn and don’t care about draft pick compensation. We’re getting a first back anyway when the Dodgers sign Arrieta.

    Cubs need to acquire probably 2 starters for next year, and can’t really get them via trade at this point unless they end up spinning off an MLB position player. This year has kindly informed us that would be unwise given how injuries would have taken the chances of any team not as deep as the Cubs this year.

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  214. Myles

    The significant losses for the Cubs in FA are Arrieta, Lackey, and Davis. The minor losses are Jay, Duensing, and Avila. The “who cares” losses are Uehara and Rivera.

    That means the Cubs probably need to replace 2 starters, 2 relievers, a backup outfielder, and a backup catcher. Mark Zagunis probably deserves a shot at being a backup OF, and I can envision Taylor Davis as a backup C in a bad-case scenario. That leaves 4 pitchers to at least compete with whomever the Cubs dredge up from the minors to replace these guys (Maples says hi).

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  216. Smokestack Lightning

    Myles: That means the Cubs probably need to replace 2 starters, 2 relievers, a backup outfielder, and a backup catcher.

    Maybe they can get something for this Chris Brian clown. Though we should probably temper expectations since he can’t drive in runs.

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  217. Myles

    I’m also amenable to giving Montgomery a chance at the #4 or #5 position. Hendricks/Quintana/Lester/Montgomery is workable, though it could obviously go to shit in a hurry.

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  218. dmick89

    Myles,

    I’m fine with that, but Lynn looks like a good option to add regardless. Cute can opt out after the season, which seemed like it was inevitable six months ago. I’m not so sure it is. If he does opt out, the Cubs have to go after him. There’s always Otani, but I think the odds of the Cubs getting him are slim to none.

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  221. Smokestack Lightning

    Myles,

    Yeah, I was thinking next might be the year the Cubs finally commit to Montgomery in the rotation. Then maybe add a Lynn/Cobb type, then spread some dollars around the 2nd/3rd-tier reclamation/refuse pile for depth. Hope Bosio can work some magic.

    One name that stood out for me on the FA list… any interest in Tyler Chatwood? Only 28. Gets tons of groundballs. Swstr higher than Lynn and Arrieta. Will likely go overlooked due to pitching half his games in Hell. Could end up being cheaper than Lynn and more effective. Not to mention 2 years younger.

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  223. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89: I can’t believe anyone is complaining about Bryant. That’s just ridiculous.

    No kidding. Meanwhile, I am more impressed with each passing year.

    Never thought he’d get his K rate under 25% let alone 20 while keeping everything else the same. Defensively, baserunning, all of it. Kid is a monster.

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  225. Myles

    I like Chatwood, but I’m not sure I like him enough to bring him in unless I had an able step-in in case he gets injured/continues to allow a shitload of HR.

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  226. Berselius is too lazy to log in

    I’ve just assumed all along that Monty would be in the rotation next year. Though post-Quintana trade I wonder if they would want that many lefties.

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  227. Smokestack Lightning

    Myles:
    I like Chatwood, but I’m not sure I like him enough to bring him in unless I had an able step-in in case he gets injured/continues to allow a shitload of HR.

    That 1.22 HR/9 is anchored to an unsustainable 22% HR/FB and is still below the league average of 1.28, and I would have moderate optimism that leaving Coors would help him get closer to his sub 1.00 career mark. For my part, I’m more concerned with the walk rate north of 10% and the K rate south of 20%. But then, that’s the same concern with Lynn right now, as are health questions.

    All things considered, unless we’re thinking Lynn returns to his pre-TJ form of 3-3.5 fWAR, Chatwood would be the better value, and perhaps with a little room to grow still.

    Of course, there’s nothing stopping the Cubs getting both.

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  230. dmick89

    I was thinking about the playoff rotation and I initially had this: Quintana, Hendricks, Arrieta, Lester.

    I’ve been giving it more thought and I’d swap Arrieta and Lester. Arrieta said he was still feeling some pain in his hamstring in his last start so the Cubs have to have a game three starter who you aren’t worried about having to lift because of injury. If the Cubs are down 2-0, it would suck to lose Arrieta in the first inning. Arrieta’s health all but guarantees that Lackey will be on the roster so I assume that Joe goes with only two catchers.

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  243. Perkins

    dmick89,

    He was giving up more hard contact than you’d like, and on a warmer day without the wind blowing in, he probably gives up a long ball in there. Overall very good though, and great to see him getting strikeouts.

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  251. cerulean

    I hope the Cubs can get their bats going tonight. I hope Lester has a good outing. I hope Schwarber doesn’t leave a handful of people on the bases.

    I would settle for two out of three…

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  252. cerulean

    Any status on Uehara? He is a great cold weather pitcher—inducing weak flies—that would be an asset in the playoffs. If he is finished for the year, I wouldn’t mind them picking him up again, assuming he isn’t retiring.

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  258. cerulean

    For all the feel good stories about John Lackey’s second half and his start against the Cards that punched the playoff ticket—let’s not forget that the guy is a bonafide asshole. I absolutely do not want a possible Lackey return.

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  259. dmick89

    cerulean,

    According to Theo, he’s one of the most loved players in the clubhouse. I probably wouldn’t re-sign him either, but the guy is only disruptive to the fans and I don’t want the Cubs paying any attention to that.

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  260. Rizzo the Rat

    dmick89,

    Yeah, I’ve never had a problem with Lackey (other than his first-half performance this year). I don’t want him back, but that’s mostly because of his age.

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  265. Rizzo the Rat

    Perkins,

    It’s become increasingly common for people to use the word in that way, but this new usage seems to have arisen by confusing it with “fortunate.” “Fortuitous” traditionally just means random or accidental without any positive (or negative) connotations.

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  266. Berselius is too lazy to log in

    Rizzo the Rat,
    Just don’t mix up rein/reign or dominant/dominate, or you might get a carrier pigeon with a telegram informing you that you are banned.

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  271. dmick89

    SK,

    I don’t know. it didn’t even occur to me until this morning. My guess would be that Trump would not want to throw out a first pitch at an LDS and would wait until the World Series. I’d say if the Nets get there it’s an almost guarantee that Trump throws out a first pitch. I just hope it’s not this series because that will just ruin my day.

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  272. dmick89

    NASCAR takes a lot of shit in this country for being bigoted, but baseball fans are just as white as NASCAR fans. I’m guessing more baseball fans voted for Trump than didn’t.

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  273. SK

    FullCountTommy‏ @FullCountTommy 29m29 minutes ago
    More
    So the Cubs actually ARE playing for something today. Win paired with a Diamondbacks loss would get them home field in a potential NLCS

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  274. dmick89

    SK,

    I think the Cubs get home field even if they lose. The Cubs will be the 3rd seed in the NL. I think record only matters for the World Series.

    Seeding

    1 Dodgers
    2 Nationals
    3 Cubs
    4 Dbacks
    5 Rockies

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  275. SK

    dmick89,

    has Trump ever thrown out a first pitch before? When he was just a celebrity etc? Is he known to attend baseball games? I would doubt he’d go to such a public event now (that isn’t a Trump rally anyway). Even if baseball fans voted more his way, it’s not a crowd that is under his control. And he wouldn’t necessarily get a a great reception. I can see owners asking him not to attend.

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  277. Rizzo the Rat

    The Cubs will still want to win today to stay ahead of the Yankees. The Cubs got swept by the Yankees in the regular season, so the Cubs would be the road team if they wind up tied.

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  278. cerulean

    dmick89:
    I hope Trump doesn’t throw out a first pitch this weekend.

    Unlikely. Expending oneself uses up precious vitality that cannot be regenerated.

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  279. uncle dave

    SK,

    It would be interesting, to say the least. Also, we’d get to watch that jiggling bucket of gravy try to throw a baseball, so there’s that. (I know, he played in high school. That was like during the Truman administration or something.)

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  280. Berselius is too lazy to log in

    SK,

    To be honest, I hope that he does. I doubt that he can even throw a ball sixty feet, let alone a strike. It would be hilarious to see his spin masters try to convince people that it was a good pitch.

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  281. cerulean

    Rizzo the Rat:
    *Pedantic reminder that “fortuitous” properly means “unexpected,” not “fortunate.”

    Are you accusing me of using fortuitous fortuitously? Because the meaning of fortuitous has nonfortuitously changed by conceptual slippage so that it now means fortuitous, fortuitously.

    #theMoreYouDontKnow

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  284. Berselius is too lazy to log in

    Berselius is too lazy to log in:
    Rizzo the Rat,
    Just don’t mix up rein/reign or dominant/dominate, or you might get a carrier pigeon with a telegram informing you that you are banned.

    Update: we have improved our technological abilities. Now you will receive a MySpace message with a .tif of a printed out email.

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  286. cerulean

    Berselius is too lazy to log in: Update: we have improved our technological abilities. Now you will receive a MySpace message with a .tif of a printed out email.

    Do you mean E-mail? I have recently gotten on-line, even have a Web Site with Geocities, but I still find this terminology a bit confusing.

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  292. cerulean

    Kris Bryant has to go 3–3 or 4–5 to bat .300—which would be the difference between a meh season—he hasn’t been a good run producer, a real letdown from last year—and an okay one. Maybe he can hit his 30th homer too. I just hope he doesn’t decide to walk every time at the plate. That’s just passing the buck to the next guy.

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  293. SK

    cerulean: Do you mean E-mail? I have recently gotten on-line, even have a home page on the World Wide Web Site with Geocities, but I still find this terminology a bit confusing.

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  296. dmick89

    Rizzo the Rat,

    He’d have been well rested even if he played in 36 innings today, which is why I don’t understand him playing only one. Why even bother? Save his PA for when it might matter. A win can still be important today.

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  302. berselius

    SK: Lynx is too fancy. Gopher, FTP and telnet FTW.

    I read all of my world wide web pages only using a combination of sed and awk.

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  314. Myles

    I mail ideas for computer searches to my grandson, and then he mails me a camera of the internets pictures he took. Get those babies developed at the drugstore, and I’m surfing the web like Tony Hawk!

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  319. cerulean

    It’s strange to reflect on how terrible the Heyward signing looks two years in while at the same time certain that he would have put up 5.0 WAR every year for the Cardinals. That signing marked the end of their division dominance and they haven’t been to the playoffs since. It’s almost as if Heyward is singlehandedly blocking the devil magic which is sapping all of his power.

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  321. Rizzo the Rat

    When Heyward signed, my biggest worry would be that he would exercise his option and leave the team after three years. I wish I could go back in time and reassure myself that there’s little chance of that happening.

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  325. dmick89

    I think one of the disadvantages the wild card teams should have to deal with is much less time off than the mlb playoffs currently have at the end of the season. I understand why Monday is off. You need a day for tie breakers, but the I don’t think the winner of the wild card game should get that extra travel day after the wild card game.

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  328. dmick89

    What’s the latest word on Cueto? I read a couple months ago he was a sure thing to opt out, but a few weeks ago it wasn’t so certain. I really hope he does. I know Theo and Jed are big fans so they’ll be talking to him if he opts out.

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  331. Myles

    Honestly, I don’t want Darvish, or Arrieta. Lance Lynn is my number 1 target in the offseason. If you are throwing 9 figures at a pitcher, you better be damn sure you are getting 28 starts or more every year in that contract. Since that’s impossible, you have to be as sure as you can be. That’s Lynn.

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  333. Myles

    Last aside: I still hold to “I don’t care about the money” as far as whatever the budgetary concerns of the Cubs are. If the Cubs spend $150MM or $250MM, I’m assuming that this FO knows what their means are and have done homework for and beyond whatever I can do. That said, I still like to speculate as far as what the value plays might be.

    It’s liberating not giving a shit if your team falls between your own arbitrary guidelines for how much money they should spend.

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  334. Edwin

    I wish things in this country would get better. I also understand the sentiment about blaming both sides of the political aisle, but from where I’m kneeling, I see one political party which routinely tries to undermine or oppose issues of racial injustice, social injustice, gun violence, health care, wage inequality, and tax reform. I’m not sure what Democrats are supposed to do better when every attempt at progress is shut down and opposed by Republicans.

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  335. Myles

    Michael Cerami‏
    @Michael_Cerami
    Following
    More
    Cubs have the worst record among divisional winners, but that means they got into October, while avoiding the WC & securing best draft pick.

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  336. dmick89

    i hadn’t thought much about the possibility of Heyward opting out since it since it seems so unlikely, but worse players have ended up having great offensive seasons. I hope he does. It would be great for the Cubs in 2018 and great for the Cubs beyond that assuming he would opt out.

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  337. Myles

    dmick89:
    i hadn’t thought much about the possibility of Heyward opting out since it since it seems so unlikely, but worse players have ended up having great offensive seasons. I hope he does. It would be great for the Cubs in 2018 and great for the Cubs beyond that assuming he would opt out.

    I would snap call a scenario in which Bryant and Heyward traded batting lines for next season.

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  338. dmick89

    Myles,

    Why is that Lynn? He missed all of last year and it will his age 31 season. I want Lynn too, but I don’t think he’s more of a lock to make 28 starts than Arrieta is. Probably Darvish. Probably.

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  339. Myles

    dmick89:
    Myles,

    Why is that Lynn? He missed all of last year and it will his age 31 season. I want Lynn too, but I don’t think he’s more of a lock to make 28 starts than Arrieta is. Probably Darvish. Probably.

    Holy shit, you’re right. I totally missed that. No dinner for me (dying laughing)

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  340. dmick89

    Myles,

    I always have to look to see what non-Cubs have done before I type. I don’t watch enough non-Cubs baseball and read very little about baseball these days so I don’t have any clue what’s happening on other teams. I have some idea with teams in the NL Central, but that’s about it.

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  343. Myles

    Ryno:
    Trubisky time in Chicago.

    I’ll be at Game 3 during MNF, so unfortunately I won’t see the one start people are excited about him for (before he goes 14-31 for 137 yds, 1 TD/3 INT)

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  346. Myles

    Ryno:
    No one thinks O(h)tani is a plug and play starting pitcher worth going for?

    There is almost no chance the Cubs sign Otani because he will want to DH on days he doesn’t pitch.

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  347. dmick89

    Ryno,

    The Cubs will go after him, but with the new way Japanese players are posted and the limitations teams have on spending, almost every team is going to check in on him. I’m guessing Dodgers or Yankees.

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  349. dmick89

    dmick89,

    He may want to, but I don’t think any MLB team is going to allow that. If that’s all it takes to sign him, I hope the Cubs let him do it. I have no problem with someone deserving playing a position on days he’s not pitching. If he’s one of the best hitters and deserves to play, I’m all for it.

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  351. dmick89

    Myles,

    I’d be surprised, but I guess we’ll see. I think Jimmy Nelson’s season ending injury (and perhaps career ending) while running the bases will be fresh enough in these executives minds. I’d be very surprised if he was even the best hitting pitcher in MLB over the last 20 years once he begins focusing almost exclusively on his pitching like pitchers do.

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  352. Myles

    dmick89:
    Myles,

    I’d be surprised, but I guess we’ll see. I think Jimmy Nelson’s season ending injury (and perhaps career ending) while running the bases will be fresh enough in these executives minds. I’d be very surprised if he was even the best hitting pitcher in MLB over the last 20 years once he begins focusing almost exclusively on his pitching like pitchers do.

    For no good reason, I expect Otani to be a 3.00 ERA pitcher with a .275/.375/.475 line for the Angels because of course he would be.

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  355. Edwin

    I look forward to the articles praising Mike Glennon for doing such a good job at not complaining about losing his starting job.

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  356. Edwin

    I wish there was a better option the Bears could have as a backup than Glennon or Sanchez. Preferably a mobile QB, with a few years of experience, hopefully some playoff experience, who hates America.

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  357. dmick89

    Myles,

    I admire your optimism. That’s almost half a run better than what Yu Darvish has done at the MLB level. It’s almost perfectly in between what Kershaw and Darvish have done. I thought I read recently that among active pitchers with at least 75 starts, Kyle Hendricks has the second best ERA at 2.94. If playing both positions at the MLB level was that easy, there’d be more that did it.

    I hope you’re right because it would mean more players would have that chance. It would be really cool to see MLB teams start drafting players out of high school and allowing them to be two-way players.

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  363. dmick89

    I just read an article wondering who would start where in the outfield in the playoffs. The way I see it is you’ve got to have Schwarber’s bat in the lineup. I know he can strikeout 30 times in a row, but he can also hit for a ton of power. I don’t see Zobrist and his experience sitting and I also don’t see him playing at 2nd base. I think the outfield is actually pretty simple to start the games: Schwarber, Heyward, Zobrist. Bryant, Russell, Javy, Rizzo in the infield with Contreras behind the plate and a rotation of Quintana, Hendricks, Lester and Arrieta.

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  365. cerulean

    I bet it will be Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Arrieta—lefty, righty, lefty, righty—a very Joe-thing to do. Lester’s last performance has allayed my fears—I think it was one of those dead arm periods. Arrieta is a question mark though, so a Lackey/Monty start is not out of the question. I don’t mind Lackey pitching three innings in a start and Montgomery adding another three. For this reason alone I bet Lackey makes the roster.

    As for the defense, I think the outfield will be matchup based—Schwarber, Jay, Zobrist, Almora, Happ, and Heyward are all likely to start at least one game in the series and sit at least one other—unless some of them are just mashing, in which case, I am all for riding the hot bat.

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  366. Rizzo the Rat

    Interesting article on FiveThirtyEight: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/madison-bumgarner-rode-a-hot-streak-to-greatness-and-we-know-who-could-be-next/amp/
    If this article’s findings are true, both Lackey and Hendricks have been throwing “hot” lately, and are good bets to continue doing so in the postseason. (Also, Scherzer’s velo was down more than 2 mph. in his last start, which may have NLDS implications.)

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  367. BVS

    Commenting first on pitching…

    Not sure about Lynn. Age 31. He’s good, but a #3 at best, right? I like Alex Cobb and even the aforementioned Tyler Chatwood, who is fortuitously only 28. I also like Mike Minor, whether as a RP or a SP. He has a $10M option by the Royals. They’ll probably pick it up though. Maybe we can trade Bijan Rademacher for Minor. (dying laughing)

    Perhaps Bosio could fix Jaime Garcia. Seems to have an Arrieta profile, but with more dominate numbers when he was younger.

    And of course Thoyer might finally be able to complete their mancrush on Tyson Ross, since his rein in Texas is over.

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  368. BVS

    Now on life…

    I’ve just been in an awful funk all day today. Some of you know I lived in PR for 8+ years and the news there has been both worse and better than you see in the media. Trees will grow back and power will eventually come back too. But meanwhile the logistics on both the fed and commonwealth have been a clusterfk. Then to wake up to Vegas and learn later that a respected colleague died in a climbing accident last weekend in CO.

    So finally tonight my 10 yr old got me to make up some silly songs and the banter here at OV on word usage and the World Wide Web finally got me chuckling. So thanks for that.

    Now back to email. Geez. Can’t they publish an update to Eudora already? The clicking and hissing is giving me a headache.

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  369. cerulean

    BVS,

    I can’t blame the Eudora programmers for not updating the application. Apple is doomed. It took a Bill Gates bailout to keep the company running. Mac OS 9 is old and crufty and this Rhapsody thing is a joke. It’s just a matter of time. They should just license Windows and keep to their core competency: styling computers.

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  370. BVS

    cerulean,

    I think they’ve been wasting their time with something called an iPod that is supposed to be better than a Walkman, but everyone knows it is easier to copy a tape than to figure out how to download a poorly balanced electronic copy of a song. CDs didn’t do well in portable formats, since they skipped all the time, why would this be different? There’s still some drive spinning in there, right? Plus, people like buying albums so they can really experience a musician’s depth of talent.

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  372. Perkins

    SK:
    So, is America finally ready for machine gun control? Silly me. Machine guns don’t kill dozens of people, people do.

    We’ve had that since 1934. Automatic weapons are illegal. Last I saw, the shooter in Vegas had a couple dozen rifles and possibly one automatic weapon, but the audio sounded like cyclic fire. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’d modded the rifles for fully automatic fire. Fucking horrorshow.

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  373. SK

    Perkins,

    Didn’t he shoot more than 500 people in less than 5 minutes (i.e. 300 seconds)? I could be wrong, because all the reporting has been all over the place and I don’t have the stomach to read too much of it. I also know shit all about guns. But whatever. Legal, illegal, nothing stopped that dude from using those weapons that presumably were manufactured legally in the first place. There’s a system or lack of one that allowed this, and it could be changed if people want it to be changed. If they don’t, fine, then it’s going to be hard to care too much the next five times it happens.

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  374. Edwin

    Isn’t the basic work around to get past the “automatic weapons ban” to have easily modded rifles? I assume the NRA works pretty hard at limiting regulation as much as possible.

    There was someone on Twitter who basically said “I’ve seen the “record massacre” headline 3 times in my lifetime. I’m 22″. At some point I hope we can start holding elected officials accountable, and get some real change.

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  377. cerulean

    SK:
    So, is America finally ready for machine gun control? Silly me. Machine guns don’t kill dozens of people, people do.

    Our forefathers were very wise and gave us this thing called the Second Amendment in something known as the Bill of Rights of the Constitution of the United States of America protecting our freedom to have arms. No other part of the Constitution has ever been changed—it ain’t gonna start on my watch. #truth #coldDead

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  379. cerulean

    But seriously—guns kill less people than knives do. How often do you hear of somebody being bludgeoned to death with a gun?

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  380. Edwin

    cerulean:
    But seriously—guns kill less people than knives do. How often do you hear of somebody being bludgeoned to death with a gun?

    I’m not sure what knife violence has to do with gun control. They seem like separate issues.

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  381. dmick89

    Edwin: At some point I hope we can start holding elected officials accountable

    (dying laughing) I’m sorry. You know this won’t happen. DC spends way too much money to ensure they aren’t held accountable.

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  382. Perkins

    SK:
    Perkins,

    Didn’t he shoot more than 500 people in less than 5 minutes (i.e. 300 seconds)?I could be wrong, because all the reporting has been all over the place and I don’t have the stomach to read too much of it. I also know shit all about guns. But whatever. Legal, illegal, nothing stopped that dude from using those weapons that presumably were manufactured legally in the first place. There’s a system or lack of one that allowed this, and it could be changed if people want it to be changed.If they don’t, fine, then it’s going to be hard to care too much the next five times it happens.

    From what I’ve been able to gather, he had about 20 or so semiautomatic rifles lined up and quickly moved from one to another (i.e. limited any time for reloading). Based on the audio, it sounded like cyclic fire (i.e. automatic), which would mean he had one or more purpose-built automatic weapons (broadly illegal under the National Firearms Act of 1934, but allowed under certain circumstances such as for collectors – also extremely expensive to purchase anything grandfathered in).

    Not to sound patronizing at all, as you stated guns aren’t really your thing, but there’s a big difference between semiautomatic and automatic – most weapons are semiautomatic (including basically all handguns – which amount for almost all violent crime), meaning that one squeeze of the trigger fires one bullet, and the chamber reloads as the trigger is released. Automatic weapons discharge multiple rounds with a single squeeze of the trigger. In military use, they are intended to facilitate maneuver around an enemy by keeping his head down with a volume of fire; in civilian use, they could kill a ton of people in short order at close to medium range, depending on the type of weapon. Broadly speaking, there’s not a great self-defense reason to own an automatic weapon, and I believe that’s part of why they’re broadly illegal and heavily restricted (as are explosives, etc).

    One thing that consistently irritates me when one of these (horrifying) events happens, a lot of journalists and bloggers immediately conflate semiautomatic and automatic weapons and ignore that one has been illegal for eight decades. And it makes the discussion of solutions much less productive, as it makes gun people tune out because they realize many in the “just do something” crowd don’t understand anything meaningful about the thing they’re trying to regulate. It’s why I don’t love magazine size restrictions – on face it sounds reasonable, but it only keeps people safer if you assume that in the intervals a shooter is reloading, someone will turn into the fucking Hulk and incapacitate the shooter. Barring several military or law enforcement types on the scene, that’s not terribly likely.

    Personally, I don’t think much will change because there isn’t an appetite for it. Guns are to some extent a culture war issue with too much daylight between the two sides. I like the idea of strict enforcement of existing laws and strengthening the controls to access guns in the first place (e.g., anyone having committed domestic abuse, felons, etc) beyond where they currently are. After all, the second amendment does specify that while a militia (read: irregular forces) is necessary for preserving a free society, it must also be well-regulated. And I’d very much prefer that as many people as possible who are unwilling or unable to uphold the social contract be denied that right, as it strikes what I feel to be an appropriate balance between safety and liberty.

    The sad truth is that by enshrining the right to bear arms as constitutionally protected, and understanding that one cannot be stripped of those rights without due process of law, every now and then someone will slip through that system and murder one or more people. To me it’s probably more dangerous overall to infringe on constitutionally-protected rights because of thoughts of what one might do rather than what he has done. Your mileage may vary.

    And while I am normally apt to political screed on social media, especially as we’re living in the Upside Down at the moment, I tend to sit out the gun stuff that takes place after a mass shooting because it’s all so goddamn predictable. Horrifying event happens, everyone is briefly shocked and horrified, gun control advocates wring their hands and tear their shirts and call for legislators to do something (anything) that feels like it might help, gun proponents repeat their arguments with varying degrees of sensitivity to the tragedy at hand, many gun proponents insist that “now isn’t the time to talk about gun control and we need to unite” (whatever the hell that means), eventually other news stories bubble up, and we all move on having tacitly accepted this as a reality of our world and political system until the next one happens and the cycle starts all over. Rinse. Repeat.

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  383. Perkins

    Edwin:
    Isn’t the basic work around to get past the “automatic weapons ban” to have easily modded rifles?I assume the NRA works pretty hard at limiting regulation as much as possible.

    There was someone on Twitter who basically said “I’ve seen the “record massacre” headline 3 times in my lifetime.I’m 22″.At some point I hope we can start holding elected officials accountable, and get some real change.

    I’m not a gunsmith, so I can’t speak to how easy it is to modify rifles. I will say that from a practical standpoint, these mass shooting events are horrifying and justly motivate people to want to respond, but the bulk of crimes committed with guns (over 95%) are done with weapons almost nobody would want to make illegal (mostly handguns) precisely because they’re much easier to conceal. I tend to focus less on the attributes of weapons themselves (other than certain parameters, such as explosive or automatic) and more on who can access them. Sadly, a great many gun people seem to see any kind of regulation as anathema.

    I’m curious to see the reporting on this event over the next couple of weeks, because this is frankly baffling. Firing automatic weapons from such a height wouldn’t be terribly accurate (semiautomatic would be more accurate), but the intent is obviously indiscriminate killing. The choice of that venue and the amount of planning and coordination necessary to move that many weapons into position implies a cold and rational thought process and likely a long amount of premeditation. It could be that he had a plan to do something like this and waited to select a target. The whole thing is both odd and horrifying, and I wonder what his motivation/desired endstate was. A lot of mass shooters seem to be disaffected white guys, so there’s probably something to that.

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  384. Ryno

    Perkins: From what I’ve been able to gather, he had about 20 or so semiautomatic rifles lined up and quickly moved fromone to another (i.e. limited any time for reloading). Based on the audio, it sounded like cyclic fire (i.e. automatic), which would mean he had one or morepurpose-built automatic weapons (broadly illegal under the National Firearms Act of 1934, but allowed under certain circumstances such as for collectors – also extremely expensive to purchase anything grandfathered in).

    Not to sound patronizing at all, as you stated guns aren’t really your thing, but there’s a big difference between semiautomatic and automatic – most weapons are semiautomatic (including basically all handguns – which amount for almost all violent crime), meaning that one squeeze of the trigger fires one bullet, and the chamber reloads as the trigger is released. Automatic weapons discharge multiple rounds with a single squeeze of the trigger.In military use, they are intended to facilitate maneuver around an enemy by keeping his head down with a volume of fire; in civilian use, they could kill a ton of people in short order at close to medium range, depending on the type of weapon.Broadly speaking, there’s not a great self-defense reason to own an automatic weapon, and I believe that’s part of why they’re broadly illegal and heavily restricted (as are explosives, etc).

    One thing that consistently irritates me when one of these (horrifying) eventshappens,a lot of journalists and bloggers immediately conflate semiautomatic and automatic weapons and ignore that one has been illegal for eightdecades. And it makes the discussion of solutions much less productive, as it makes gun people tune out because they realize many in the “just do something” crowd don’t understand anything meaningful about the thing they’re trying to regulate. It’s why I don’t love magazine size restrictions – on face it soundsreasonable,but it only keeps people safer if you assume that in the intervals a shooter is reloading, someone will turn into the fuckingHulk and incapacitate the shooter. Barring several military or law enforcement types on the scene,that’s not terribly likely.

    Personally, I don’t think much will change because there isn’t an appetite for it. Guns are to some extent a culture war issue with too much daylight between the two sides. I like the idea of strict enforcement of existing laws and strengthening the controls to access guns in the first place (e.g., anyone having committed domestic abuse, felons, etc) beyond where they currently are.After all, the second amendment does specify that while a militia (read: irregular forces) is necessary for preserving a free society, it must also be well-regulated. And I’d very much prefer that as many people as possible who are unwilling or unable to uphold the social contract be denied that right, as it strikes what I feel to be an appropriate balance between safety and liberty.

    The sad truth is that by enshrining the right to bear arms as constitutionally protected, and understanding that one cannot be stripped of those rights without due process of law, every now and then someone will slip through that system and murder one or more people. To me it’s probably more dangerous overall to infringe on constitutionally-protected rights because of thoughts of what one might do rather than what he has done. Your mileage may vary.

    And while I am normally apt to political screed on social media, especially as we’re living in the Upside Down at the moment, I tend to sit out the gun stuff that takes place after a mass shooting because it’s all so goddamn predictable. Horrifying event happens, everyone is briefly shocked and horrified, gun control advocates wring their hands and tear their shirts and call for legislators to do something (anything) that feels like it might help, gun proponents repeat their arguments with varying degrees of sensitivity to the tragedy at hand, many gun proponents insist that “now isn’tthe timeto talk about gun control and we need to unite” (whatever the hell that means), eventually other news stories bubble up, and we all move on having tacitly accepted this as a reality of our world and political system until the next one happens and the cycle starts all over. Rinse. Repeat.

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  386. Ryno

    So TEN could lose Marcus Mariota for a few weeks and they’re looking for a replacement/backup. So they must be looking for a quality quarterback…similar to Mariota would be ideal…

    And who do they “kick the tires” on? Brandon Weeden, Matt Barkley, Matt McGloin and TJ Yates.

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  387. Ryno

    Perkins: A lot of mass shooters seem to be disaffected white guys, so there’s probably something to that.

    Yes, we’re the sociopaths. We’re the serial killers.

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  388. cerulean

    Require expensive yearly licensing/excise tax and proper storage for guns. Tax the fuck out of bullets with limits on the amounts that can be bought tied to the licensing. Limit personal private armories to five firearms. Work with local militia to establish safes for larger private collections requiring three to access that mitigates the lone wolf—paid for with the excise taxes. Work with local ranges to offset the cost of bullets for practice and safety training that diminishes the cost of a license. Allow for one hunting rifle with a scope and one shotgun to be tax free. Offer a state-run buyback program that gives 33% above FMV with the guns to be destroyed.

    And no beat cops should carry a gun. That’s just fucking stupid.

    But alas—the gun lobby makes a shitton of money off of these tragedies so nothing will change until lobbying is capped, cold and dead.

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  389. Perkins

    Ryno: Yes, we’re the sociopaths. We’re the serial killers.

    Well, and there was that disaffected Asian guy at VT back in 2007, and a disaffected black guy in Dallas last year.

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  390. dmick89

    cerulean: And no beat cops should carry a gun. That’s just fucking stupid.

    Not only that, but neither party has a problem selling weapons to countries like Saudi Arabia. The gun control debate ends at the US border apparently.

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  392. Perkins

    cerulean:
    But alas—the gun lobby makes a shitton of money off of these tragedies so nothing will change until lobbying is capped, cold and dead.

    This right here. I think it’s reasonable to say the NRA isn’t acting in the interest of responsible gun owners and is instead wholly behind the gun industry. And at least when the president was from the other party, they could (and did) spin up a lot of fear and resentment after one of these events to the tune of “they’re coming for your guns” to whip up fervor to go buy more.

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  393. Rizzo the Rat

    Francona: Bauer Game 1, Kluber Game 2, Carrasco Game 3, Tomlin Game 4 (subject to change), Kluber Game 5, if needed.

    — Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) October 3, 2017

    Bauer? WTF?

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  395. EnricoPallazzo

    dmick89:
    Len did say that Lester was probably going to pitch one of the games in Washington, but I’m not sure I buy it.

    i’ve read in a couple of different places that games 1-2-3 will be hendricks-lester-arrieta. this seems insane.

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  396. Author
    myles

    Having a license to carry should be about as hard as getting a license to fly.

    And if 1/2/3 is Hendricks/Lester/Arrieta, that would be insane to me.

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  399. Author
    myles

    I’d have Hendricks/Q/Arrieta/Lester, honestly. Lackey is the reliever of first resort for relieving the lefthanders, and Montgomery is the reliever of first resort for relieving the righthanders.

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  401. SK

    Edwin:
    I’d also slot Carlos Zambrano in there somewhere.Probably first option after Monty or Lackey.

    This will work well for when Dusty starts E-Jax for game 3.

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  402. Author
    myles

    Edwin:
    I’d also slot Carlos Zambrano in there somewhere.Probably first option after Monty or Lackey.

    You might be kidding, but it would be the coolest thing ever to see Big Z trot out there on Friday.

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  403. dmick89

    Considering Jake’s injury, and the real possibility that you could have a bullpen game on your hands that day, there’s no way I’d slot Arrieta in the first three games. I don’t think it would be a bad idea to only announce the game 1 starter. If the Cubs win that day, maybe you throw Arrieta out there in game 2 and get lucky. I doubt Joe is willing to do that so the only thing that makes sense to me is saving Arrieta for game 4. I’d even consider bringing back the game 1 starter on short rest if it was an elimination game.

    Quintana, Hendricks, Lester, Arrieta/Quintana, Quintana/Arrieta

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  405. Edwin

    myles: You might be kidding, but it would be the coolest thing ever to see Big Z trot out there on Friday.

    Did he throw out a first pitch at all last playoffs? If not, it’d be cool to have him on hand to do that.

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  411. Berselius

    dmick89:
    Edwin,

    I don’t think so. He threw out a first pitch this year and I’m pretty sure it was his first time doing so since The Event.

    From what I remember, it felt pretty spur of the moment too. I think he just happened to be at the game with his family or something and someone in marketing realized they didn’t have anyone lined up.

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