Thanks the Padres come from behind win last night in a game started by Madison Bumgarner, the Cubs are nearing what was inevitable a month ago: a spot in the postseason. It's been so long that we've known this was coming that the Cubs even moved their rotation around so to ensure that Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta would each face the Pirates in both of the series they had against them (one of them starting today). The hope was they could still catch the Pirates and have that game on October 7th at Wrigley Field.
That's still possible, but 3.5 back (3 in the loss column) and it's probably unlikely at this point. The Cubs are in a position where they almost have to sweep Pittsburgh for that to happen. Even if it does, the Cubs have a home game against the Royals on Monday and then head out for their final 6 games of the season on the road. Pittsburgh heads home for 6, but 3 of them are against St. Louis so there's that I guess.
I've been one all season long who has felt the Cubs were better than the Pirates and that they'd eventually catch them. Even back when the seaosn started when I still pegged this team for 75-78 wins, I felt the Cubs were better than the Pirates. It's still possible they catch them, but it's not likely. I still think they're the better team, but they're younger and more inconsistent. That inconsistency should improve as they get older.
The Cubs are very close to clinching a spot in the playoffs and I'm certainly excited for that, but it's entirely possible they're done after 1 game. I like the way MLB has this set up currently. It puts more emphasis on winning your division, which I think is a good thing, but I wonder if there are too many divisions. Does MLB even need divisions at this point? Could the Wild Card teams play a brief 3 game series? I don't know the answers to these questions, but I think time off is a big concern for teams. They don't want too much of it.
So I like the current setup as much as possible given the three divisions in each league, and am super excited to see what the Cubs can do in the postseason. I'm also hesistant to go all crazy about one game. I'm going to be disappointed if they lose that game to Pittsburgh. One game just doesn't feel like you reached the postseason.
But in the scheme of things, this is year one. This is the first year the Cubs were supposed to be somewhat competitive. They've been a lot more than that and they should be a lot better in the future.
A win today and the Cubs clinch the fucking playoffs. That's something to be excited about even if it could be only one game.
Weren’t 2 or 3 of the runs scored against him either unearned or given up after he’d left? I thought he pitched a great game against the Cubs last time out.
dmick89Quote Reply
My favorite hypothetical scenario is the Pirates tying the Cardinals for the division lead, followed by the Cardinals losing the two one-off games.
berseliusQuote Reply
I approve this sequence of events and wish it godspeed.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
In other news, Nick Vlahos is the asshat to end all asshats.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Even if it’s one game, it’s one game where the Cubs are included in an exclusive, invite-only club of 10 teams that can possibly win the World Series. That’s all I care about.
GBtSQuote Reply
dmick89,
I can’t read a fucking boxscore. They only got 1 run in the 1st which I think was unearned. They did tie it up in the 6th with 3 more runs (against Cole) but Pirates went ahead in the 8th.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Preferably BOTH at Busch
GBtSQuote Reply
He’s in line behind whatever asshat sent death threats to Julie over this Kane stuff.
berseliusQuote Reply
I think you mean ‘Bush’ Stadium my frent.
berseliusQuote Reply
I’d rather face the Cardinals in a 5-game series. I get that it might be a bit easier to beat the Cardinals in a one game series than the Pirates, but I want the Cubs and Cardinals in a playoff series just as I always wanted to see the Yankees and Red Sox play a series together. Also, I think the Cubs will walk all over the Cardinals in that series if it happens so I can’t wait for it.
dmick89Quote Reply
And I’ll take Jake Arrieta over any other starter in baseball so Cubs @ Pirates, advantage Cubs.
dmick89Quote Reply
I tend to agree the Cubs have a slight advantage over whoever in a 1 game playoff with Arrieta, and I also think they would beat the Cards in a 5 game series. I might be being too optimistic though. I do think the Cubs have what it takes beyond just talent to make a deep playoff run. At the same time, I won’t be too crushed if they lose the WC game, given they’re going to win 90+ games in a year I thought they’d win 84.
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time agoQuote Reply
Is Bryant the frontrunner for ROY in everyone’s mind beside us Cubs fans?
JoshQuote Reply
Josh,
Everyone besides the BFIB
berseliusQuote Reply
To day’s base ball squadron
Fowler
Schwarber
Bryant
Rizzo
Coghlan
Russell
Ross
Lester
La Stella
berseliusQuote Reply
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Yes, the Hope Monster will feast well this post season. My favorite part will be if the Cubs lose and the Cardinals win even one series, and then hearing how the Cubs choke again from my Astros and Cardinals friends.
JoshQuote Reply
if the cubs lose today, do you just cede the WC home-filed to the pirates and rest arrietta for the rest of the regular season? or does that fuck up his rhythm?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
*WC home-field
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I think so. I wouldn’t hold Arrieta out at all, but I’d have a much shorter leash. 5 inning starts or so, couple times through the order, just to keep the rhythm there.
mylesQuote Reply
Even Grienke and Kershaw?
JoshQuote Reply
I feel kind of bad about the glee I feel at the possibility of the Astros blowing their playoff berth
berseliusQuote Reply
haha, one of these is IP, one of these is ERA+:
210
216
not a bad season.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Right now yeah. Both of them are great, but Arrieta’s performance over the last few months is insane.
dmick89Quote Reply
I never liked the Astros when they were in the NL Central, but now I just don’t care. It’s hard enough keeping up with the NL West teams.
dmick89Quote Reply
Yeah, I wouldn’t make many changes if they lost today. Assuming they clinch soon, like you, I might not allow any more 120 pitch outings from Arrieta. I’d probably limit him to 100 pitches per start. I wouldn’t want to do too much to take him out of his rhythm though.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I’m still laughing at the sheer amount of back-patting last year over the course of their 70 win season.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
“Great job guys!!! We’re no longer the laughingstock of the league!”
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
Brett and Sahadev talked about this on their podcast this week – I wouldn’t want to mess with his rhythm either. Arrieta’s one of the most focused/intense guys on the team, I don’t think they should take him out of his comfort zone.
berseliusQuote Reply
Speaking of podcasts, Jonah Keri had Len on for a great interview earlier this week
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/grantland/player?id=13719365
berseliusQuote Reply
The Cubs get the home game in the Wild Card if they tie the Pirates because they’ll have the better head-to-head record (currently 10-6 vs. them). The Cubs could conceivably lose one game in this series and realistically still tie them in the remaining 7 games.
aisle424Quote Reply
anyone know if mlb.tv posts today’s game in the archives immediately after the broadcaast ends? or do you have to wait until the next day to watch/listen?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
from what I remember it’s usually a few hours later
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
well that fucking blows. looks like i have no option other than to leave work a few hours early.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
They could, but with the Pirates playing at home and the Cubs on the road, I’d feel a lot better about those odds if the Cubs sweep them. I think the odds of the Cubs hosting the WC game are pretty slim as it is right now, but if they don’t sweep the Pirates, I don’t see it happening. I guess it depends also on what the Cardinals do this weekend. If they get swept and the Cubs take 2 of 3, that Pirates/Cards series becomes important to both teams.
dmick89Quote Reply
I don’t hate the stros per se, but my friend can be kind of annoying. Also, LA is the only team I almost got to see play live this year, so go Angels.
JoshQuote Reply
That was certainly the case several years ago, but haven’t they sped up the process more recently? I don’t know for sure because I almost never watch games I miss on the same day.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I’m not sure if it’s still the case, but I think on Apple TV you can access them right after the game ends. Maybe that was last year that I tried that though. I’m not sure.
dmick89Quote Reply
I wish I could just google things like “what the hell happened to Oakland this season” and get a good response.
JoshQuote Reply
What’s the verdict on Lester? Fangraphs likes him a ton this year, but B-ref is a little more reserved. The outings I’ve watched weren’t so great.
JoshQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/what-the-hell-happened-to-oakland-this-season.html
dmick89Quote Reply
I haven’t seen all his starts either. Some of them he’s looked really good and others he’s looked less than impressive. I’m interested to see what the next couple of years look like. I’m hoping he turns it around a bit next year. Otherwise, it could be a very long contract.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
(dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah. Obviously a sweep is ideal, but my point is the hope of catching them isn’t dead if they lose a game. So I don’t expect them to mess with the rotation or anything they are doing.
The Pirates being 4 back of the Cardinals makes this hard. The Cardinals don’t have a ton to play for anymore. They’ve basically wrapped up home field for the NL side of the playoffs and it might actually help them to lose to the Pirates to keep the Cubs in 3rd.
aisle424Quote Reply
Thank you
JoshQuote Reply
Twice this season I’ve had to do a double-take when I saw Delino Deshields mentioned. No way that guy is still playing. Are we not saying Junior anymore!? Terrible.
JoshQuote Reply
Josh,
Well, they traded one of the best two or three players in the league for Brett Lawrie and Kendall Graveman, so… that’s not great.
GWQuote Reply
Cespedes?
JoshQuote Reply
Oh Donaldson. Yeah, what the hell.
JoshQuote Reply
And they turned Addison Russell into Marcus Semien; also not very promising.
GWQuote Reply
It’s like Billy Beane lost his shit.
JoshQuote Reply
Still got the ghost of Coco Crisp hanging around, haunting them.
JoshQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
Not too promising.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Was that a hit-and-run, or was Schwarber running on his own?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
BLAN of the toot variety there. Don’t like sending Schwarber there with Bryant being the King of K
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Lester also didn’t seem to have great control in that inning.
Why hit and run with Bryant and Schwarber? That’s asking for a double play.
dmick89Quote Reply
JonKneeV,
They all looked like flyouts to me.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
My thought exactly.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Russell is good.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Russell so smooth
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Addison Russell is an okay shortstop, I guess.
berseliusQuote Reply
A tootish blan, as Muddy Waters might say.
uncle daveQuote Reply
#stopbunting
#exceptforhits
berseliusQuote Reply
David Ross’s walkup music is >>>>>>>>>> as always.
berseliusQuote Reply
Hey fellas, listening to the baseball programme on the internet radio system. As of yet, there is no score.
JoshQuote Reply
Josh,
Please keep us informed via carrier pigeon.
berseliusQuote Reply
This is a nice comment.
aisle424Quote Reply
aisle424,
This is an ice comment.
berseliusQuote Reply
He stole it from Bo Diddley’s “I’m a Blan”.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
berselius,
RC had a perfect opening here
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I’ve received an update! The Swashbucklers of Steel Country have bescored a run!
JoshQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
And yet there are millions who still think that the Rolling Stones are the world’s foremost performers of TOOTBLAN-themed songs.
uncle daveQuote Reply
They forged it with a rusty anchor
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Jake for Cy Young or no? Numbers wise, it’s pretty close for the top three, really. It’ll probably come down to post-seanson success.
JoshQuote Reply
Josh,
I think they vote before the playoffs.
berseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing) at that TheriZZO jersey.
berseliusQuote Reply
Well if they go with traditional stats you have to give it to Jake, right? I mean, if you end the season right now he’s got a sub-2.00 ERA and leads in wins.
JoshQuote Reply
Holy shit I just saw Greinke’s ERA
JoshQuote Reply
berselius,
Awesome
JoshQuote Reply
Awesome
berseliusQuote Reply
Josh,
I’d vote for Arrieta, but it’s so close that I’d be fine with any of the three of them.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Yeah, good call.
JoshQuote Reply
Josh,
He just missed a start, so there’s that.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
They should Rochambeau for it.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Who, Grienke?
JoshQuote Reply
Josh,
Yes.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Is he hurt?
JoshQuote Reply
Greinke missed his last start due to a sore right calf.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
They’re just trying to keep his ERA low. Jerks.
JoshQuote Reply
It’s so weird having a left fielder with number 12 diving for stuff
Suburban kidQuote Reply
The fan in the first row staring at their phone will forever piss me off
Suburban kidQuote Reply
It’s also weird having a left fielder wearing number 12 who has thighs
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
That’s me! I’m watching the birth of my child! Jeez.
JoshQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
that doesn’t piss me off quite as much as the fucking shitheads that wave at the camera for the WHOLE FUCKING GAME
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Eh, I don;t know the difference between fangraphs and b-ref’s pitching measures, but my take has been that Lester’s been really good this year as far as things he can control. Got hit hard a couple times, and obviously the running game is a problem, but overall, he’s been really good.
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time agoQuote Reply
If you’re sitting on Al’s bench, I get it, scroll Twitter or map your escape route, because you can’t see the game too good out there anyway and hopefully. But if you’re in the $250 seats right on top of the plate, you shouldn’t even be turning to talk to your neighbors. Look straight ahead for the full nine.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
His K-BB% was really good awhile ago and I assume it still is relative to the rest of the league. He’s probably been a bit unlucky this year, but I’m not sure.
dmick89Quote Reply
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time ago,
I wonder if it’s some kind of difference in park effects or something.
JoshQuote Reply
I saw this and imagined Al writing 140 character thoughts on tiny scrolls.
berseliusQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
We’ll hand out eyelid clips at the door.
I also find Marlins Guy to be kind of distracting.
uncle daveQuote Reply
dmick89,
I feel like if he started holding runners earlier (rather than just starting in September) he would have stranded more runners and he ERA would be 25 points lower.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Harrison should check to see if Schwarber’s hit burned straight through his glove.
berseliusQuote Reply
Maybe they shouldn’t hit and run this time.
dmick89Quote Reply
Big inning here guys
Suburban kidQuote Reply
uncle dave,
Do you mean pink hat guy? Hard to believe that guy tried to buy the team.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Wrigley is playing like The Grand Canyon today. I almost wish Haren were pitching.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
Nah, there’s a cat who shows up to a LOT of games in full orange Marlins regalia, always sitting right behind the plate. Don’t know why, but the guy annoys me. He’s the modern equivalent of the John 3:16 guy.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
Eh, daddy probably gave him/her the tickets to make up for scratching his/her lexus or something.
JoshQuote Reply
Rodrigo is only 6 away from 500 doubles.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
There would have been three homeruns already.
JoshQuote Reply
uncle dave,
I was not aware of Marlins Man. He sounds bad.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
That Strap feller just threw that ball clear in the dirt!
JoshQuote Reply
There’s been a distinct lack of clinching in this game.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Fangraphs looks at FIP (homers, walks, strikeouts) while bref looks at runs allowed.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hey, if only we’d hired Sandberg, right? Be 152-0 right now.
JoshQuote Reply
Not that W-L is a big deal, but Lester has gotten between 0 and 3 runs of support in a little over a third of his starts. That’s going to amplify the perceived struggles.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Joe sure is hesitant to use Baez in a pinch.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
Morse disagrees
JoshQuote Reply
Perkins,
Yeah, even ignoring W-L it seemed like he’d been up and down. More consistent than the record no doubt reflects, as often happens with pitchers.
JoshQuote Reply
Damn, tough hop.
berseliusQuote Reply
There’s no way he makes that play at the plate JD.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Ugh at that slide, Javy.
berseliusQuote Reply
Javy’s slide may have cost him a hit there.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Yeah, I think the fact that the Cubs have lost a good amount of Lester’s games gives the impression that he has been inconsistent or not as good as advertised. That’s not really on him for the most part, though. By fWAR he has been more or less in line with his career norms.
PerkinsQuote Reply
One reason for Lester’s poor record is that he almost always had Ross behind the plate. Also his own poor hitting and fielding have hit him.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
*hurt him. Damn phone posts.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cmon Tony
berseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
https://bleedingbluecubbies.wordpress.com/2015/09/25/guest-post-the-cubs-are-an-abject-failure/
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
Oh my god.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
How can anyone rip on the Samardzija trade? That was the A’s being desperate to win and giving up their most valuable asset.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The Cubs are a failure! They’re only on this place! Fire Theo!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
*third. Dammit.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Not to complain, but this lack of post-editing is driving me crazy.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
just for the record that’s a (totally accurate) parody of The Vlahos.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
NORF
berseliusQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
OK. I was wondering about that.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Castro!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I need to know what the editer-in-chief thinks of this.
berseliusQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
No, that was fine, it meant they were going to have a rough year down the road. Maybe he saw the writing on the wall in terms of what the Astros were doing and knew it would be awhile before he could compete again.
JoshQuote Reply
STARLIN YES
berseliusQuote Reply
FELLOWS! A brown man has apparently made an excellent hitting play!
JoshQuote Reply
Ugh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Yeah.
JoshQuote Reply
Well, if they don’t win this one, it’s only because they didn’t make hitting plays in the appropriate times.
JoshQuote Reply
See previous post.
JoshQuote Reply
This team is incapable of getting a run home from 3rd with less than two outs.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
Old Skool Cubs!
JoshQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m sure they’ve scored at least 1 run in that circumstance. Being serious, that’s what happens when you’ve got a team that strikes out 4000 times.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m not complaining. I didn’t expect one run in the 9th. I’m happy they made a game out of it late when teams in the past would have ended up losing 12-1.
dmick89Quote Reply
JonKneeV,
Correct.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cubs are last in RBI and first in strikeouts in that dubious category.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Of course, Cubs lead the league in strikeouts, so no surprise.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Make that second-to-last in RBI. Didn’t see The Dodgers.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
What about in R+RBI though. Gotta use the modern stats.
berseliusQuote Reply
The last time I got to sit in those seats I was on my phone for 3 straight innings live blogging (to my 3 friends) the conversation between Rickets and George Will that was happening directly to my left. I probably looked like an asshole on TV, but it was worth it.
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
What I’d like to see is a physics person or a math person calculate whether there COULD have been a play based on the running speed of 3B baserunner bearing down on home, distance between Castro & plate at time of first capture of baseball, and Castro’s maximum throwing velocity. I also don’t think he had a play and he took the sure thing at first base.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It think what JD was saying that it was worth a shot given the importance of that run. I disagree with him too. I think there was a near 0% chance he’d have thrown him out, but JD also didn’t think there was a high probability of getting the out. He was wondering that it may have been worth that small chance. It’s a reasonable thing to wonder and it’s one of the reasons why I like JD so much. Even though it was a low probability play, maybe there is a time in which it is the optimal decision.
dmick89Quote Reply
9 outs away from clinching.
dmick89Quote Reply
If this game were taking place on Mars, I’d probably have the tools on hand to figure this out.
berseliusQuote Reply
Time zone difference would make playing on Mars a bitch.
dmick89Quote Reply
3 outs
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube,
So based on this picture and google maps distance calculator, Castro was around 70-80 ft away from home plate and Mercer was about 30-40 feet away from home plate when Castro had the ball in his hand about to throw it.
Assuming Castro throws 85 mph, the ball will get to Ross between 0.56 s (70 ft) to 0.64 s (80 ft).
Mercer is already at full speed. Assuming he runs about 15 mph, he will get to home plate (without sliding which will slow him down) between 1.8 s (@ 40 ft away) to 1.3 s (@30 ft away).
So if it was a force play, I’d say Castro has a good shot of getting him. However, it wasn’t a force play. Castro’s throw has to be accurate and then Ross has to catch it and tag the runner in less than 1s (between 0.7 s and 1.2s based on min/max distances). I’d say he has >0% chance to make the play, but less than 5% chance.
WaLiQuote Reply
Good stuff, Wali. Thanks.
dmick89Quote Reply
new mini shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/cubs-clinch-the-wild-card/
dmick89Quote Reply