So based on this picture and google maps distance calculator, Castro was around 70-80 ft away from home plate and Mercer was about 30-40 feet away from home plate when Castro had the ball in his hand about to throw it.
Assuming Castro throws 85 mph, the ball will get to Ross between 0.56 s (70 ft) to 0.64 s (80 ft).
Mercer is already at full speed. Assuming he runs about 15 mph, he will get to home plate (without sliding which will slow him down) between 1.8 s (@ 40 ft away) to 1.3 s (@30 ft away).
So if it was a force play, I’d say Castro has a good shot of getting him. However, it wasn’t a force play. Castro’s throw has to be accurate and then Ross has to catch it and tag the runner in less than 1s (between 0.7 s and 1.2s based on min/max distances). I’d say he has >0% chance to make the play, but less than 5% chance.
WaLi that was one of the best comments ever I recently enjoyed.
One thing I don’t see addressed in the comment or in the discussion by JD or dm is the time it will take for Castro to get off the throw. Actually, JD did wonder if maybe he didn’t get the handle on it so that’s why he went to first, but that’s not what I mean. See where he’s holding the ball now? By the time he winds up and gets the throw off, even if he got the handle immediately, the runner is another 10 feet closer to the plate.
I do agree there was a shot if it was a force play.
They do. The code just wasn’t right. Noticed it in another one by you that didn’t work out right, but you had a weird end quotation mark at the end. Also, you didn’t have http:// at the beginning of the url.
Suburban kid: WaLi that was one of the best comments ever I recently enjoyed.
One thing I don’t see addressed in the comment or in the discussion by JD or dm is the time it will take for Castro to get off the throw. Actually, JD did wonder if maybe he didn’t get the handle on it so that’s why he went to first, but that’s not what I mean. See where he’s holding the ball now? By the time he winds up and gets the throw off, even if he got the handle immediately, the runner is another 10 feet closer to the plate.
I do agree there was a shot if it was a force play.
Thanks for all the work here, Wali.
For the record, I think Castro should have gone to 1st. He made the right play in my mind. My main point was that even JD knew it was a low probability play, but he wondered if the gain made it worth it. I doubt it did.
Career earnings ~$3.0 million. That’s damn near impossible for someone with an 11-year career over that time span. Maybe he’ll get a few million in flier money this offseason.
I think the Cubs have a better chance of reaching the NLCS with St. Louis winning the division. The Cubs probably have a better chance of beating the Cardinals in 5 than they do the Pirates.
Unfortunately, I’m not sure this is going to work. Noticed that I was able to edit an older comment, which isn’t a big deal in itself, but the timer function isn’t working correctly and that’s going to fill up the database quite quickly. There’s another option I was trying out too and I don’t think we’ll have that problem.
Wouldn’t mind seeing an open audition for the last SP slot now that the die is pretty much cast for the postseason, see what Wood and Cahill might be able to do.
I think it’s way too late for open auditions. I just think that when Hammel and Hendricks start, be ready for a bullpen game. If they pitch good for four innings, great, but if they suck in the first, put in Richard/Cahill/Wood.
I think you need to have a lightning-fast hook regardless of who you put up there, but I’d be inclined to try and figure out who has the hot hand and put them at the front of the line.
Maybe they could just do bullpen games for non Jake/Jon affairs. At the very least, I wouldn’t trust Hammel or Hendricks more than twice through the order.
I was hoping the Cubs would pass the Pirates. Not for home field advantage, but for the extra money that would have come in from the wild card game (and passed on in part to next year’s budget).
McCutcheon just isn’t seeing Arrieta at all lately. Not that anyone else is, but that’s a great hitter who looks clueless against Arrieta the last two games he’s faced him.
I was thinking 78-84 wins at the beginning of the year. They’ve gotten a lot more offensive production from their rookies than I was expecting. Also, Arrieta has been way better than I thought he was. He’s been way better than anyone thought, but I was thinking he was probably closer to an average starter.
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time ago
I was hoping for 87 wins at the beginning, but expecting 82-84. The young players have been great, and obviously Arrieta. I also think they way Maddon has used the roster has really maxed out the talent
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time agoQuoteReply
0
0
Rizzo the Rat
I was pretty optimistic, and The Cubs still outperformed my expectations. Which… hasn’t happened in quite a while.
In my opinion, there isn’t much of a difference in five games—87 wins is comparable to 82 wins on the low end (an average team got lucky) and 92 wins on the high end (a solid team got unlucky). The Cubs may win 95.
I thought 90 was within the realm of possibility if everything went right—that is, they got lucky. But 95 by my metric means a lucky 90-win team or an unlucky 100-win one—in other words, they are at least a 90-win team. That exceeds every expectation that I had.
All this with some key players missing time due to injury and others underperforming and ineffective—particularly Starlin and the revolving door of starters. But youth is amazing—like the Cards, the Cubs have been able to find production from the minors and be *better* when others get hurt.
That’s the mark of a great organization and a perennial contender. And they have an ace who has legitimate claim to the title *best in all of baseball* who looks like he may be getting better.
All this to say, we are actually good, *really*. And this seems like a glimpse of things to come.
Question: How many wins do the Cubs get if Renteria were still the manager?
I feel like Joe and his coaches have been worth several wins—which is crazy, because managers don’t have that kind of impact. Somebody talk me down from this precarious line of thinking.
cerulean: That’s the mark of a great organization and a perennial contender. And they have an ace who has legitimate claim to the title *best in all of baseball* who looks like he may be getting better.
All this to say, we are actually good, *really*. And this seems like a glimpse of things to come.
I think I wrote this exact same thing on the Cubs.com message board… in 2003.
Comments
WaLiQuote Reply
Congrats, jabronis. I hope our patience pays off next month as it did through this entire year.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2015/09/25/carlos-martinez-exits-start-after-seven-pitches/
Carlos Martinez—–>shoulder tightness
Also fuck yeah, playoff clinch.
PerkinsQuote Reply
http://www.arethecubsgoingtothepostseasonthisyear.com
I can post again!
Well done
GiantsCubes! Now the thrill ride beginsfang2415Quote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I guess the gifs don’t work the same way as the jpgs and the pngs
http://www.gifbin.com/bin/062014/1401733348_opening_bottle_of_champagne_with_sword_fail.gif
http://d2rj11yhftc112.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/mojo-9-champagne-celebrate-friends-victory-win.gif
Suburban kidQuote Reply
WaLi that was one of the best comments ever I recently enjoyed.
One thing I don’t see addressed in the comment or in the discussion by JD or dm is the time it will take for Castro to get off the throw. Actually, JD did wonder if maybe he didn’t get the handle on it so that’s why he went to first, but that’s not what I mean. See where he’s holding the ball now? By the time he winds up and gets the throw off, even if he got the handle immediately, the runner is another 10 feet closer to the plate.
I do agree there was a shot if it was a force play.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
via GIPHY
MillertimeQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
They do. The code just wasn’t right. Noticed it in another one by you that didn’t work out right, but you had a weird end quotation mark at the end. Also, you didn’t have http:// at the beginning of the url.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Goddam I suck
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Thanks for all the work here, Wali.
For the record, I think Castro should have gone to 1st. He made the right play in my mind. My main point was that even JD knew it was a low probability play, but he wondered if the gain made it worth it. I doubt it did.
dmick89Quote Reply
Justin Bour has 20 homers this year, may be the best minor league rule V pick of all time.
GWQuote Reply
Rich Hill shut out the O’s last night with 2h, 10k, 1bb.
GWQuote Reply
DJ LeMahieu has been worth approximately 2 WAR this year.
GWQuote Reply
Josh Donaldson hit his 40th, is rounding out an 8.5 WAR season.
GWQuote Reply
Chris Archer has turned into an absolute beast.
GWQuote Reply
2008-2014 fWAR: 1.3
2015 fWAR: 1.2
dmick89Quote Reply
Hill isn’t this good, but that’s still damn impressive.
dmick89Quote Reply
Career earnings ~$3.0 million. That’s damn near impossible for someone with an 11-year career over that time span. Maybe he’ll get a few million in flier money this offseason.
GWQuote Reply
GW,
Someone will sign him with those strikeout numbers.
dmick89Quote Reply
Wow, The Pirates are only 3 games behind The Cardinals. Now I’m torn.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I think the Cubs have a better chance of reaching the NLCS with St. Louis winning the division. The Cubs probably have a better chance of beating the Cardinals in 5 than they do the Pirates.
dmick89Quote Reply
You can now edit comments for a set period of time. Let me know if there are any issues.
dmick89Quote Reply
Test
Edit: It works!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Unfortunately, I’m not sure this is going to work. Noticed that I was able to edit an older comment, which isn’t a big deal in itself, but the timer function isn’t working correctly and that’s going to fill up the database quite quickly. There’s another option I was trying out too and I don’t think we’ll have that problem.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
If it helps, I’m not able to edit an older comment. Maybe you could because you’re the admin.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
It was just a random comment and only one of them. I’ll keep an eye out and see if it happens again.
dmick89Quote Reply
It appears to happen to comments left about an hour earlier. Just took this after my last comment.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m going to work on fixing the default edit comment for registered users, but this should do until I get time to do that.
dmick89Quote Reply
And to think, Hendry nearly traded Trey McNutt instead.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hammel wants to start in the playoffs.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
But Liriano is going to throw a no hitter.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
False.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Starlin is so good going back on tough popups. Even on the right side.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
So they said during an MLB at Bat ad on TV that the number one app for live baseball is MLB At Bat. What other app has live baseball?
Obstructed View is the number one Cubs blog names Obstructed View.
dmick89Quote Reply
Jesus. Hammel kind of sucks anymore.
dmick89Quote Reply
I was wondering where bad Hammel went. He was here all along!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I’d start Hendricks in game 3 if they get that chance.
dmick89Quote Reply
By my calculations, if The Cubs lose this game, their playoff chances will fall down to 100%.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Game 2 I guess.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Who needs a third starter?
My rotation:
Arrieta
Lester
Arrieta
Lester
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hammel can’t not have one shitty inning. Joe should have cut bait after he let two guys on because that was a clear sign it had arrived.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Need some well timed rainouts and that’s possible.
dmick89Quote Reply
Suburban kid,
Good thing the bullpen is so reliable.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Vasgersian says Arrieta isn’t necessarily the Cubs number one SP.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Same thing for Grimm.
dmick89Quote Reply
I heard that and then I muted the TV. If you don’t know who the number one is on the cubs at this point, you shouldn’t be speaking about baseball.
dmick89Quote Reply
Apparently the plan now is to swing at all the first pitches.
dmick89Quote Reply
Wouldn’t mind seeing an open audition for the last SP slot now that the die is pretty much cast for the postseason, see what Wood and Cahill might be able to do.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I like that idea, Dave.
dmick89Quote Reply
So, will the Cubs score today?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think it’s way too late for open auditions. I just think that when Hammel and Hendricks start, be ready for a bullpen game. If they pitch good for four innings, great, but if they suck in the first, put in Richard/Cahill/Wood.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Better question is: will they take a pitch?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
I think you need to have a lightning-fast hook regardless of who you put up there, but I’d be inclined to try and figure out who has the hot hand and put them at the front of the line.
uncle daveQuote Reply
#jaff
uncle daveQuote Reply
Soler guesses the wrong pitches to swing at. He also seems to think that once he has one strike on him, he has to swing at every pitch after that.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Ramirez and Edwards looking a lot better than Grimm and Hunter.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Maybe they could just do bullpen games for non Jake/Jon affairs. At the very least, I wouldn’t trust Hammel or Hendricks more than twice through the order.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Carlos Martinez——->Done deal sealed (shoulder strain)
Now I really hope the Cards hang on and take the division, because that rotation looks awfully thin in a five game series.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
Still want the Pirates and Cardinals to tie so they have to play a tie-break game to determine the division winner.
aisle424Quote Reply
Also,
aisle424Quote Reply
If Carp is out for the playoffs, we absolutely should be cheering for a Cardinals division victory.
mylesQuote Reply
No joke. Their voodoo magic seems to be unraveling all at once. They might be the weakest 100 win team I can remember.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Assuming the Cardinals win that game and the Pirates burn Cole or Liriano, agreed.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Did they honor Aramis yet or is that today? Well, I’m wearing his faded shirsey because I’m a sap.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
The last time The Cubs played the Game of the Week, Arrieta threw a no-hitter. I expect no less from Arrieta today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I was wondering about that. Hope it's tonight.
dmick89Quote Reply
I was hoping the Cubs would pass the Pirates. Not for home field advantage, but for the extra money that would have come in from the wild card game (and passed on in part to next year’s budget).
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
Wait are the Cubs officially honoring him or something? I haven’t seen anything about that
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Yes, I heard something about that a few weeks ago. Ricketts told a beat writer they’d honor him during this series (or something like that).
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Just when I thought things couldn’t get any worse for the Nats…
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
A strikeout and a grounder to the pitcher. That’s so Arrieta.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Is there any way Jake can share that cheat code he discovered with the rest of the staff?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
McCutcheon just isn’t seeing Arrieta at all lately. Not that anyone else is, but that’s a great hitter who looks clueless against Arrieta the last two games he’s faced him.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs win. The rest is just a formality at this point.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Nice hustle by Castro.
dmick89Quote Reply
Another ugly, high-pressure Soler at-bat.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Strike 2 was probably the worst pitch I can remember a Cubs player swinging at all season.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah, he seems to have no idea whether a pitch will be a strike or not.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I feel sorry for MLB hitters who have to face Arrieta right now.
dmick89Quote Reply
Fucking Marlins Guy at the game again. I don’t know why it bothers me as much as it does.
uncle daveQuote Reply
dmick89,
Helps that The Cubs apparently bribed the umpire.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Arrieta!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Arrieta does it all.
WaLiQuote Reply
Holy shit. Wow.
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing) wtf
uncle daveQuote Reply
Abandon hope all ye who face Jake Arrieta
WaLiQuote Reply
This should earn him some pinch hit appearances next year.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Cubs should do that for Hammel and Hendricks. They need the help.
dmick89Quote Reply
This ump is terrible.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Are The Cubs outfielders still awake?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Did Burnett think that first pitch to Castro was a strike? He looked pissed off. Pitch wasn’t too close.
dmick89Quote Reply
Zone seems to be favoring Arrieta to this point, but seems fairly tight overall.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Ump is horrible.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ball 6
dmick89Quote Reply
Okay that Arrieta AB was pretty bullshit.
PerkinsQuote Reply
dmick89Quote Reply
No Cub outfielder has touched a baseball yet.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Good. At. Sports.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Rizzo swung at ball 4
dmick89Quote Reply
Terrible at bat by Castro
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs are still bad at the runner on third, less than 2 out thing.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
This game feels like it should be 5-0.
dmick89Quote Reply
Much better AB by Soler. Too bad he didn’t come up with only one out.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
An outfielder made a play!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
It feels like 10-0 with Jake pitching, so I’m OK.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Didn’t they have a 2-0 lead in his last start against the Pirates? The game he threw the ball over Rizzo’s head.
dmick89Quote Reply
Damn if the Cubs get this Arrieta in the WC game that is gonna be so fun to watch
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time agoQuote Reply
That would have been awesome.
dmick89Quote Reply
I thought it was gone. Nice standing O for a fly out. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Damn it.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Arrieta saw the bullpen up and said “fuck that, I wanna win tonight.”
dmick89Quote Reply
This is weird.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It was 4 balls. Why the confusion?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Longest review for a Ball 4 ever.
mylesQuote Reply
How did it take that long? Kruk figured it out in a fraction of the time and he’s an idiot.
dmick89Quote Reply
Do the Pirates lose their review on that one?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I figured it out just by watching the damn game. That was weird.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Where is The Count when you need him?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cubs should have more runs in this game. It feels like they should have 5-6
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time agoQuote Reply
CASTRO!!!
dmick89Quote Reply
Oh god, this will lead to another lengthy review process.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time ago,
Castro thought so too
WaLiQuote Reply
Jake must be ice cold by now.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
This. Inning. Will. Never. End.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Travis Wood was getting warmed up at the start of the inning.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Hope he doesn’t catch on fire!
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi,
Get it? Because his name is Travis WOOD. And he’s getting WARMED UP.
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi,
And when wood warms up too much it catches on fire.
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi,
mylesQuote Reply
Russell is having a nice defensive game.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
90.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
#WEAREGOOD
WaLiQuote Reply
90 is more than I thought they’d get at the beginning of the year, and I was optimistic
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time agoQuote Reply
https://twitter.com/sahadevsharma/status/648320614118375424
I’m not annoyed too much by Hurdle using a stalling tactic, but I’m pretty pissed off that it worked so well. There’s no was a count review should take so long.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time ago,
I thought they’d be in contention. I didn’t think they would clinch it with more than a week left.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I was thinking 78-84 wins at the beginning of the year. They’ve gotten a lot more offensive production from their rookies than I was expecting. Also, Arrieta has been way better than I thought he was. He’s been way better than anyone thought, but I was thinking he was probably closer to an average starter.
dmick89Quote Reply
I was hoping for 87 wins at the beginning, but expecting 82-84. The young players have been great, and obviously Arrieta. I also think they way Maddon has used the roster has really maxed out the talent
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time agoQuote Reply
I was pretty optimistic, and The Cubs still outperformed my expectations. Which… hasn’t happened in quite a while.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
In my opinion, there isn’t much of a difference in five games—87 wins is comparable to 82 wins on the low end (an average team got lucky) and 92 wins on the high end (a solid team got unlucky). The Cubs may win 95.
I thought 90 was within the realm of possibility if everything went right—that is, they got lucky. But 95 by my metric means a lucky 90-win team or an unlucky 100-win one—in other words, they are at least a 90-win team. That exceeds every expectation that I had.
All this with some key players missing time due to injury and others underperforming and ineffective—particularly Starlin and the revolving door of starters. But youth is amazing—like the Cards, the Cubs have been able to find production from the minors and be *better* when others get hurt.
That’s the mark of a great organization and a perennial contender. And they have an ace who has legitimate claim to the title *best in all of baseball* who looks like he may be getting better.
All this to say, we are actually good, *really*. And this seems like a glimpse of things to come.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Question: How many wins do the Cubs get if Renteria were still the manager?
I feel like Joe and his coaches have been worth several wins—which is crazy, because managers don’t have that kind of impact. Somebody talk me down from this precarious line of thinking.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I think I wrote this exact same thing on the Cubs.com message board… in 2003.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
New shit
http://obstructedview.net/podcasts/return-of-the-ov-podcast/
berseliusQuote Reply
If Kris Bryant has genetic laxity…
ceruleanQuote Reply