According to Bruce Levine the Cubs and Reds are close on a deal that would send Sean Marshall to the Reds for 24 year old left-handed starter Travis Wood and two minor leaguers. We found that Marshall has a surplus trade value of about $6.5 million so this seems like a great trade for the Cubs. Wood has barely over 1 year of service time so he’s under club control for 5 additional years at the very least. The first two years would pay him league minimum at which point he’d become arbitration eligible until he reached free agency three years later.
Oliver projects Wood as a 2.5 WAR player over 170 innings in 2012. The following years Oliver has him at 2.4, 2.3, 2.3 and 2.3 WAR at which point he’d be a free agent. Wood’s surplus trade value is below.
| Year | WAR | per win | $WAR | Salary |
| 2012 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 12.5 | 0.5 |
| 2013 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 12.6 | 0.5 |
| 2014 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 12.7 | 5.1 |
| 2015 | 2.3 | 5.8 | 13.3 | 8.0 |
| 2016 | 2.3 | 6.1 | 14.0 | 11.2 |
| Total | 11.8 | 5.5 | 65.1 | 25.2 |
That’s a surplus value of $40 million so if the Cubs can acquire Wood and a couple of prospects while only giving up Sean Marshall I’d be thrilled. Let’s be a little cautious and take 3 WAR away from the total. That’s still a surplus trade value over $20 million.
It was suggested in the comments that Wood could then be used to acquire Anthony Rizzo from the Padres. The projections for Rizzo are not kind. Oliver projects .2 WAR next year and never a season higher than .8 WAR. Bill James projects a .318 wOBA and from a 1st baseman that is not at all good. CAIRO projects a .289 wOBA and .1 WAR.
I think those projections are low on Rizzo, but trading Wood for him makes no sense in my opinion. If you want to trade Matt Garza for him and the upside that Rizzo offers, go for it. I’d be reluctant to even do a Garza/Rizzo swap at this point.
Besides, the Cubs need young, cost-controlled players and Wood is just that. I don’t want the Cubs trading young players for young players. That defeats the purpose of rebuilding. Trade the veterans who aren’t going to be around for a contending team for younger players.
Someone posted this last thread:
https://twitter.com/#!/EyeOnBaseball/status/149524628648361984
Says deal may not be close.
/funsucker’d
WaLiQuote Reply
FanGraphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cubs-reds-discussing-possible-trade/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Not too surprising. It so heavily favors the Cubs it’s hard to imagine the trade as described getting done.
mb21Quote Reply
one of the comments in the fangraphs article was pretty good. They noted that Mike Adams got a pretty good haul of prospects back and I think we could expect the same.
dylanjQuote Reply
It’s worth noting that neither player the Padres acquired were top 100 prospects.
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/yu_forecast/
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/yu_forecast/[/quote]Yu is projected to be pretty awesome.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Anthony Rizzo on his own is not enough return for Garza. If the Cubs ship him off, it had better be for no less than two high quality prospects. It would need to be Rizzo and at least one of San Diego’s better pitching prospects.
Very much agreed though re: Marshall for Travis Wood. I’d be fine with that deal, one-for-one. If either of the two prospects the Cubs might supposedly get in this deal are any good, this would be a fantastic trade.
Wood is also pretty much the perfect fit for this team right now, if you ask me. There’s very little left-handed pitching depth throughout the organization, at least in terms of starters. So a lefty, who can miss some bats, and keeps the ball of the ground– that last one is huge in my opinion. Ian Stewart may be a decent third baseman, but Darwin Barney isn’t a lock to get the lion’s share of innings at 2B, and as long as Starlin is taking his lumps at shortstop, the Cubs would do well to avoid groundball pitchers, at least to a certain extent. To me, Wood profiles as a perfect #3/4 starter for the Cubs right now.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
no i think one of those guys was top 150. Erlin?
dylanjQuote Reply
Keep the ball *off* the ground I meant. Wood’s career GB% is 31.4%. League average is ~44%
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]Keep the ball *off* the ground I meant. Wood’s career GB% is 31.4%. League average is ~44%[/quote]Someone was remarking about how that would be interesting to track in Wrigley as Travis Wood seems to be effective at keeping the ball in the park. Seems like a sustainable skill?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Merry Christmas, fuckfaces!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Someone was remarking about how that would be interesting to track in Wrigley as Travis Wood seems to be effective at keeping the ball in the park. Seems like a sustainable skill?[/quote]
Probably isn’t, if you ask me. He’s only thrown just over 200 innings in his career, and has only allowed homers on 6.5% of his flyballs. That number is most likely bound to regress toward ~10% going forward. But it isn’t out of the question that he can keep the ball in the park at a slightly better than average rate.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
Also, not sure how other people feel about these rumors, but I’m not down at all with the idea of Paul Maholm or Jeff Francis. Both of those guys are pitch to contact, groundball pitchers, which is pretty much the last kind of pitcher I think the Cubs ought to have any interest in.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]Also, not sure how other people feel about these rumors, but I’m not down at all with the idea of Paul Maholm or Jeff Francis. Both of those guys are pitch to contact, groundball pitchers, which is pretty much the last kind of pitcher I think the Cubs ought to have any interest in.[/quote]Not a fan of the Cubs’ defense I see (dying laughing)
I think they should just keep the ball in the park and we should have a little faith that the coaching staff can teach them how to play better defense.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]Also, not sure how other people feel about these rumors, but I’m not down at all with the idea of Paul Maholm or Jeff Francis. Both of those guys are pitch to contact, groundball pitchers, which is pretty much the last kind of pitcher I think the Cubs ought to have any interest in.[/quote]They’re short-term fill ins. The Cubs have to have a rotation the next 3, 4 or 5 years when they aren’t contending so spend as little as possible while still having a somewhat respectable rotation.
mb21Quote Reply
Lou Montanez —> Phillies minor league deal
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]no i think one of those guys was top 150. Erlin?[/quote]No idea. BA only lists the top 100 each year.
mb21Quote Reply
Hasn’t Colin Wyers shown that HR/FB isn’t that great a statistic? I know it’s primarily due to the fact that batted ball type is next to useless, but I seem to remember him or maybe it was Mike Fast talking about HR per Ball in play.
mb21Quote Reply
RC’s hometown team not doing much:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/The-Giants-8217-thumb-twiddling-act-is-startin?urn=mlb-wp28917
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]
[/quote][insert Josh joke]
GBTSQuote Reply
You guys ready for a rebuild?
http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/cubs-talk/post/Kaplan-Cubs-to-go-through-a-complete-reb?blockID=616644&feedID=10336
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Hasn’t Colin Wyers shown that HR/FB isn’t that great a statistic? I know it’s primarily due to the fact that batted ball type is next to useless, but I seem to remember him or maybe it was Mike Fast talking about HR per Ball in play.[/quote]The fact is, he does give up a lot of flyballs (unless the stringers are systematically misidentifying his batted balls, even compared to his teammates, which is unlikely). Flyball pitchers do tend to give up home runs at a much higher rate than Wood does, so I think you have to take that into account when regressing his home run rate.
ACTQuote Reply
Now…how many of Travis Wood’s fly balls were of the infield variety? Are foul popouts considered “in play”?
Just wondering.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It’s worth noting that neither player the Padres acquired were top 100 prospects.[/quote]
Erlin might have been if he were at least 2 inches taller. He probably will be next year if he repeats his success.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
As a 20-year-old at AA, Erlin struck out 92 in 92.2 IP while walking 11.
In his three stops in the Carolina and Texas leagues last year, he had a K/BB ratio of 9.63.
Erlin has a good chance of starting next year in the SD rotation. If I were a SD fan, I’d have been happy to give up Mike Adams+ for Erlin.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
What the fuck is going on? Why am I suddenly posting about baseball?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS][insert Josh ][/quote].
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]You guys ready for a rebuild?
http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/cubs-talk/post/Kaplan-Cubs-to-go-through-a-complete-reb?blockID=616644&feedID=10336
[/quote]It’s a very strange column from Kap. There are people in baseball who think the Cubs are going to rebuild completely. There are also sources around the league who think the Cubs suck. The only mystery here is why anyone would think such statements would need to be hidden by the shroud of anonymity. (dying laughing)
AndCountingQuote Reply
Heard on the Score Bill Buckner might be new A-ball hitting coach. Opinions? I don’t care, but this is the closest I’ve come to bringing news to this site.
BottleasmokeQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]It’s a very strange column from Kap. There are people in baseball who think the Cubs are going to rebuild completely. There are also sources around the league who think the Cubs suck. The only mystery here is why anyone would think such statements would need to be hidden by the shroud of anonymity. (dying laughing)[/quote]
Probably just bad form to publicly trash another team so brazenly. guys will talk about how other teams “have challenges” or “restricting circumstances” or a “shallow system” or something like that, but whoever that was basically said the whole Cubs organization is shit with the exception of a couple of guys.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Bottleasmoke]Heard on the Score Bill Buckner might be new A-ball hitting coach. Opinions? I don’t care, but this is the closest I’ve come to bringing news to this site.[/quote]Ricketts: I want the Cubs to be the Red Sox!
Theo: You want to the Cubs to be like the Red Sox? No problem. I can manage it so the Cubs are built like the Red Sox.
Ricketts No, I want the Cubs to be:the Red Sox.
Theo: Okay…
Ricketts: It started with you. Now you go out and hire all your former colleagues.
Theo: Okay.. done. But Lucchino just said i can’t do that anymore.
Ricketts: Well then start hiring former players! If anyone has any association with the Red Sox then I want them! We’ll find a position for them! And then one day, we will be the Red Sox!
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]Ricketts: I want the Cubs to be the Red Sox!
Theo: You want to the Cubs to be like the Red Sox? No problem. I can manage it so the Cubs are built like the Red Sox.
Ricketts No, I want the Cubs to be:the Red Sox.
Theo: Okay…
Ricketts: It started with you. Now you go out and hire all your former colleagues.
Theo: Okay.. done. But Lucchino just said i can’t do that anymore.
Ricketts: Well then start hiring former players! If anyone has any association with the Red Sox then I want them! We’ll find a position for them! And then one day, we will be the Red Sox![/quote]The Boston Red Cubs of Chicago. Nice.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]Ricketts: I want the Cubs to be the Red Sox!
Theo: You want to the Cubs to be like the Red Sox? No problem. I can manage it so the Cubs are built like the Red Sox.
Ricketts No, I want the Cubs to be:the Red Sox.
Theo: Okay…
Ricketts: It started with you. Now you go out and hire all your former colleagues.
Theo: Okay.. done. But Lucchino just said i can’t do that anymore.
Ricketts: Well then start hiring former players! If anyone has any association with the Red Sox then I want them! We’ll find a position for them! And then one day, we will be the Red Sox![/quote]Bucknor did play for the Cubs at one time….I believe it was before he played for the Red Sox.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=JMan]Bucknor did play for the Cubs at one time….I believe it was before he played for the Red Sox.[/quote]Yeah from ’77-’84. He had a long ass career: 1969-1990
I think his time with the Red Sox is what brought him here though. It’s a shame Sandberg didn’t have a year in the Red Sox system.
WaLiQuote Reply
Buckner hit .289 over his career. Not a lot of homers or walks, but seems he knew how to get bat on ball. So might not be a bad hire if that’s what a hitting instructor does.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]The fact is, he does give up a lot of flyballs (unless the stringers are systematically misidentifying his batted balls, even compared to his teammates, which is unlikely). Flyball pitchers do tend to give up home runs at a much higher rate than Wood does, so I think you have to take that into account when regressing his home run rate.[/quote]I’m not saying he’s not going to give up more home runs than a groundball pitcher. He will.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]Yeah from ’77-’84. He had a long ass career: 1969-1990.[/quote]That is long. My ass career was much shorter.
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Erlin might have been if he were at least 2 inches taller. He probably will be next year if he repeats his success.[/quote]
I wasn’t aware that you could grow two inches by doing well at baseball.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I wasn’t aware that you could grow two inches by doing well at baseball.[/quote]According to e-mails I get, you can grow two inches by taking pills.
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I wasn’t aware that you could grow two inches by doing well at baseball.[/quote]I can grow 2 inches and I suck at baseball.
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I wasn’t aware that you could grow two inches by doing well at baseball.[/quote]I grew several inches when Castro homered in his first at bat.
GBTSQuote Reply
Keep ’em coming!
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]I grew several inches when Castro homered in his first at bat.[/quote]You wish.
/troll
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Keep ’em coming![/quote]I’ll flag this one myself.
GBTSQuote Reply
I realize trading him would be stupid but what type of return would Starlin Castro bring? Assuming it’d have to be a king’s ransom wouldn’t that be a move the FO would have to consider?
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=JMan]I realize trading him would be stupid but what type of return would Starlin Castro bring? Assuming it’d have to be a king’s ransom wouldn’t that be a move the FO would have to consider?[/quote]I would want the moon for Starlin Castro.
Like, literally. I would want the Chicago Cubs to acquire property rights in the moon and provide shuttle service for its fans to go play on it.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]I would want the moon for Starlin Castro.
Like, literally. I would want the Chicago Cubs to acquire property rights in the moon and provide shuttle service for its fans to go play on it.[/quote]While a trip to the moon may be enjoyable, I’d rather watch Starlin play baseball as a Cub.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Unfortunately, the Yankees own the moon, and it will take more than Starlin Castro to get it from them. Besides, Derek Jeter is their shortstop of the future.
ACTQuote Reply
Levine sez trade is a go.
I might nerdgasm.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Unfortunately, the Yankees own the moon, and it will take more than Starlin Castro to get it from them. Besides, Derek Jeter is their shortstop of the future.[/quote]How about an asteroid?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Levine says the deal is done. Wood + two more
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=JMan]I realize trading him would be stupid but what type of return would Starlin Castro bring? Assuming it’d have to be a king’s ransom wouldn’t that be a move the FO would have to consider?[/quote]Yes, they would have to consider it and they should. You’re only going to trade him if it’s a deal you can’t turn down, but I would definitely make him available if I was running things.
mb21Quote Reply
https://twitter.com/#!/ESPNChiCubs/status/149601181080096768
I’m still amazed that the Reds had to tack on the prospects in order for the deal to do through. That’s the Jed/Theo magic, I guess.
ACTQuote Reply
again, we should see return = to what SD got for Mike Adams. and Travis Wood aint it
dylanjQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/complete-rebuild-cubs-re-sign-reed-johnson.html
mb21Quote Reply
uncle daveQuote Reply