Cubs compared to their projections

In News And Rumors by dmick89137 Comments

I wrote this on Friday morning so it’s updated through Thursday’s games. I’m too lazy to update it to include Friday’s blowout loss.

This is something I’ll try to update once a month just so we can see where players are at compared to their projections. It’s something SG has done on RLYW a few times over the last couple years and I really like the idea so I’m going to borrow it. Mike Leake would steal it.

I’m using the projected wOBA and actual wOBA to calculate each players wRC. That’s based on the number of plate appearances of course. It’s the run value the player has contributed to his team.

Name PA wOBA wRC Proj-wOBA Proj wRC Diff
Starlin Castro 83 .405 15.1 .328 9.4 5.7
Aramis Ramirez 77 .374 12.1 .352 8.7 3.4
Alfonso Soriano 70 .375 11.1 .338 7.9 3.2
KosukeFukudome 41 .408 7.6 .342 4.6 3.0
Jeff Baker 31 .381 5.1 .321 3.5 1.6
Reed Johnson 16 .427 3.2 .302 1.8 1.4
Darwin Barney 61 .323 7.2 .293 6.9 0.3
Geovany Soto 65 .307 6.8 .363 7.4 -0.6
Blake DeWitt 14 .269 1.0 .319 1.6 -0.6
Koyie Hill 10 .229 .4 .272 1.1 -0.7
Marlon Byrd 77 .274 6.1 .335 8.7 -2.6
Carlos Pena 60 .261 4.1 .362 6.8 -2.7
Tyler Colvin 48 .234 2.3 .328 5.4 -3.1

There are sample size issues here to consider before you start saying how much a player sucks. Marlon Byrd is not going ot post a .274 wOBA this season. Get real. Colvin and Pena won’t hit as poorly as they have either. On the other hand, Castro, Fukudome, Johnson and Baker won’t hit nearly as well as they have. Overall, the offense has produced 8 more runs than expected so far.

Name IP RA FIP Proj-RA Proj-FIP Diff-RA Diff-FIP
Randy Wells 6 1.50 5.18 4.48 4.10 2.98 -1.08
Andrew Cashner 5.1 1.76 5.26 4.73 4.5 2.96 -0.76
Sean Marshall 9 1.00 1.35 3.85 3.51 2.85 2.16
Jeff Stevens 3.2 2.81 3.56 5.49 4.57 2.68 1.01
Jeff Samardzija 11 4.09 5.1 5.79 5.33 1.70 0.23
Kerry Wood 6.1 2.95 4.75 4.03 3.73 1.08 -1.02
Casey Coleman 10.2 4.41 6.2 4.89 4.45 0.48 -1.75
Carlos Marmol 9.2 2.93 2.29 3.25 3.07 0.32 0.78
Carlos Zambrano 25.2 4.29 3.91 4.18 3.89 -0.10 -0.02
Matt Garza 24.2 4.83 1.23 4.34 4.27 -0.50 3.04
Marcos Mateo 7.1 6.34 1.51 5.46 4.86 -0.88 3.35
Ryan Dempster 25 7.20 4.61 4.17 4 -3.03 -0.61
James Russell 9 9.00 6.57 5.46 4.92 -3.54 -1.65
John Grabow 6.2 10.16 8.11 4.71 4.53 -5.45 -3.58

Too small a sample to even talk about. Just wanted to post it so you could see it for yourself.


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Comments

  1. Mish

    [quote name=Suburban Kid]First game I’ve seen that has a decent crowd at Wrigely this year.[/quote]I’d say it’s the first game with great weather.

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  2. Suburban kid

    Barney’s inside-out swing: does he wait for an inside pitch every time so he can use it?

    Also, another anti-TOOTBLAN

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  3. mb21

    I thought this was the part of the game where you’re supposed to stop trying to score runs. It’s an unwritten rule.

    This was obviously interference. Barney had nowhere to go.

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  4. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius](dying laughing) at the double reverse tootblan[/quote]I don’t think Castro’s was a mistake. I think he knew he could beat Lilly to 2nd even if he threw to 1st. We saw runners do that against Lilly when he was a Cub. I think it’s one of those things where the runner is going regardless of what Lilly is doing because his pickoff move sucks.

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  5. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    [quote name=Suburban Kid]Barn Dance Fever!![/quote]
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

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  6. mb21

    [quote name=Xoomwaffle]Wasn’t starting pitching supposed to be a strength?[/quote]Depends on what you mean by strength I guess. It’s an above average rotation, but far from great. Assuming they stay relatively healthy, I’d expect the rotation to rank in the top 5 in the NL when the season ends.

    We often talk about variance and the problem with pitching is that the variance is so large. It’s about 1 run per 9 innings for a pitcher who throws 200 innings. So a guy like Dempster could post a 4.8 FIP and that would be well within what we reasonably expected him to post. Now consider what that variance is for a reliever who throws 60 innings and why investing any money in the bullpen is silly.

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  7. fight2win

    [quote name=Xoomwaffle]Wasn’t starting pitching supposed to be a strength?[/quote]
    I think we had significant depth in the rotation going into this year- not necessarily strength. When I hear SP strength i think Phillies and Giants.

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  8. mb21

    I also think Brewers with Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum. Before the season I also thought of the Cardinals with Wainwright and Carpenter.

    The Cubs were below all of them, but better than your average rotation. The problem is that if you’re only going to be above average on the mound, you have to be outstanding elsewhere. Their defense sucks, which makes it harder on their pitching staff. Their offense sucks, which makes it nearly impossible to post a winning record. Then factor in their awful baserunning and looking at this team right now you have to be somewhat impressed with their record. It’s going to get a lot worse.

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  9. fight2win

    Defense has been pretty good. Castro looks a lot more confident on the field, Barney has been real good and Ramirez remembered how to get infront of ground balls again.

    Knock on wood, (Just not hard, hes fragile)

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  10. mb21

    Cubs have the 4th worst team UZR and 6th worst team DRS: http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011

    Here are the individual Cubs: http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Cubs&pos=all&stats=fld&qual=0&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011

    Tiny sample size as far as individual players go so don’t look too much into them, but they’ve allowed about 10 more runs than an average defense would have this season (average between DRS and UZR).

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  11. WaLi2

    [quote name=mb21]Cubs have the 4th worst team UZR and 6th worst team DRS: http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011

    Here are the individual Cubs: http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Cubs&pos=all&stats=fld&qual=0&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011

    Tiny sample size as far as individual players go so don’t look too much into them, but they’ve allowed about 10 more runs than an average defense would have this season (average between DRS and UZR).[/quote]
    Fun-sucker.

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  12. mb21

    Too bad the Cubs got nothing from Coleman yesterday. They could have pinch hit for Dempster here if they got even 5 or 6 innings from Coleman.

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  13. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    [quote name=melissa]Does Demp blow today or should a couple homers be expected with the wind howling out?[/quote]
    well, it’s not really just today. He’s given up 5 runs in pretty much every start, although that’s just my memory, so it may not be true

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  14. WaLi2

    [quote name=mb21](dying laughing) @ fun-sucker. That had to be a joke on Al’s part. Had to be.[/quote]I don’t know, it’s hard to tell with some of the shit he has said.

    Kerry Wood going to the rotation? I mean come on.

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  15. fight2win

    [quote name=mb21]Too bad the Cubs got nothing from Coleman yesterday. They could have pinch hit for Dempster here if they got even 5 or 6 innings from Coleman.[/quote]they could still do that, Marshall, wood and marmol havent pitched in a few days. one of them could go 2

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  16. Rice Cube

    [quote name=fight2win]they could still do that, Marshall, wood and marmol havent pitched in a few days. one of them could go 2[/quote]
    Too late.

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  17. melissa

    [quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]well, it’s not really just today. He’s given up 5 runs in pretty much every start, although that’s just my memory, so it may not be true[/quote]
    People seemed to be saying he sucked today after he gave up the homers. I don’t think that’s fair considering the wind. His previous struggles should not negate today’s wind factor.

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  18. melissa

    Why aren’t the Cubs hitters getting any fly balls up into that jet stream? They’ve had plenty of balls knocked down in previous games.

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  19. Doogolas

    [quote name=mb21]Cubs have the 4th worst team UZR and 6th worst team DRS: http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011

    Here are the individual Cubs: http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Cubs&pos=all&stats=fld&qual=0&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011

    Tiny sample size as far as individual players go so don’t look too much into them, but they’ve allowed about 10 more runs than an average defense would have this season (average between DRS and UZR).[/quote]Eh, I really think a lot of that is the fault of Garza having given up about 500000000000 line drives his first few games.

    Fuck. Ryan. Dempster.

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  20. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    Fuck Cubs fans. Dempster lets half the lineup homer, silence. Soriano dives and misses, and the boos come out.

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  21. mb21

    [quote name=Doogolas]Eh, I really think a lot of that is the fault of Garza having given up about 500000000000 line drives his first few games.

    Fuck. Ryan. Dempster.[/quote]line drives are taken into account in UZR though. It could just be a sample size issue that will even out, but we expected this to be a bad defensive team. The only way it’s a good defensive team is if they get a little lucky.

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  22. mb21

    [quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]Fuck Cubs fans. Dempster lets half the lineup homer, silence. Soriano dives and misses, and the boos come out.[/quote]Home runs are going to happen on a day like this. Dumbass dives shouldn’t. I think it’s ridiculous he got booed, but that was as dumb as the dives Byrd has taken that we’ve all bitched about around here. It shouldn’t have been done. You have to e clueless about the game situation to take that risk and that’s what Soriano did. Terrible decision on his part.

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  23. Doogolas

    [quote name=mb21]line drives are taken into account in UZR though. It could just be a sample size issue that will even out, but we expected this to be a bad defensive team. The only way it’s a good defensive team is if they get a little lucky.[/quote]Sure, but all the guys that you’d expect to be bad individually have been good and all the ones you’d expect to be good have been the bad ones.

    I mean, Castro, Ramirez have been good. Meanwhile Pena has been God awful apparently as has Barney, even though watching the game I doubt any Cub fan would say Pena has been anything but excellent, same with Barney.

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  24. Doogolas

    [quote name=mb21]Home runs are going to happen on a day like this. Dumbass dives shouldn’t. I think it’s ridiculous he got booed, but that was as dumb as the dives Byrd has taken that we’ve all bitched about around here. It shouldn’t have been done. You have to e clueless about the game situation to take that risk and that’s what Soriano did. Terrible decision on his part.[/quote]If he doesn’t dive Cub fans would bitch about him though.

    Soriano is fucked either way.

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  25. fight2win

    So apparently Quade hasnt picked up on Dempster- when he starts giving up long fly balls he’s close to the end.

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  26. Doogolas

    Pissed me off so much that Quade:

    A) Let Dempster hit with the bases loaded.

    B) Didn’t give Dempster the take sign on the 3-2 pitch.

    What an idiot.

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  27. Suburban kid

    [quote name=fight2win]So apparently Quade hasnt picked up on Dempster- when he starts giving up long fly balls he’s close to the end.[/quote]It’s because Dempster hasn’t told him yet.

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  28. mb21

    I don’t see the Pena as a great fielder thing. He’s OK, but I haven’t seen anything special. He makes the plays that every other 1st baseman makes.

    As for good and bad, you can’t look at the player numbers at this point on defense and claim one has been good or bad. You’re FAR FAR better off looking at each player’s career numbers than you are the individual season numbers. That’s true after a full season has been played. Ramirez didn’t get better on defense. He simply had easier balls to field or whatever. His defense sucks and any scout would say that. Same with Soriano.

    The Cubs defense is bad and the team metrics bear that out. It’s not surprise and it will continue to be a bad defense.

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  29. Doogolas

    I didn’t say it wasn’t bad. Nor did I say the metrics were necessarily wrong. I just don’t think the metrics are hitting the right guys. Pena has made outstanding plays all year. Even if EVERYTHING else about him were awful, his range has been outstanding. He’s gotten to some balls that I’ve never seen a 1B get in my life.

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  30. Doogolas

    Also, I should add that I know uZR is worthless this early. I was just pointing out that the individual numbers that are there look completely insane. Which really isn’t that surprising or anything.

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  31. melissa

    [quote name=Doogolas]He’s gotten to some balls that I’ve never seen a 1B get in my life.[/quote]
    (dying laughing). Are you Bill Walton?

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  32. fight2win

    The only players that seem “below average” would be Soriano and Ramirez. Everyone else at least fits the eye test for “Average”. I would even venture to say that Pena, Barney and Fukudome excel in defending their positions on the diamond. If Castro continues to make positive strides we may actually have a solid defensive club.

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  33. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    [quote name=mb21]Castro and Barney have been unbelievable in the top 2 spots.[/quote]

    Barney should be well above average on defense at 2B; if he can get even relatively close to league average with the bat, he’d be quite valuable in his first 3 years.

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  34. Aisle424

    Clearly, it is a stone cold fact that last year’s team would have collapsed under similar circumstances. Anyone else who thinks differently is a fun-sucker who doesn’t like to allow other people to have opinions.

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  35. Mish

    [quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]Barney should be well above average on defense at 2B; if he can get even relatively close to league average with the bat, he’d be quite valuable in his first 3 years.[/quote]
    So the Cubs will lock him up long term (dying laughing)

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  36. mb21

    Agreed, Nate. He looked to have some issues early on his season, but has been excellent since. Barney’s wOBA is about league average (higher after today). If he can take a few more walks and maybe hit a more doubles knowing the average won’t always be that high, he’ll be a damn good player for the Cubs.

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  37. mb21

    [quote name=Aisle424]Clearly, it is a stone cold fact that last year’s team would have collapsed under similar circumstances. Anyone else who thinks differently is a fun-sucker who doesn’t like to allow other people to have opinions.[/quote]Imagine how much the Cubs would lead by if Quade didn’t want to run up the score when they were leading 2-1. They’d be leading by 30.

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  38. bubblesdachimp

    I like barney… Seeing as he can pkay a good ss from all reports he might be a valuable trade chip. Something to think about

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  39. mb21

    [quote name=bubblesdachimp]I like barney… Seeing as he can pkay a good ss from all reports he might be a valuable trade chip. Something to think about[/quote]I don’t want to trade a league minimum player who has value.

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  40. Aisle424

    [quote name=mb21]What are the unwritten rules in the 9th inning of a 2-run lead? Closer can’t strike anybody out?[/quote]
    Closer can’t throw breaking balls. Fastballs only.

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  41. Suburban kid

    [quote name=mb21]What are the unwritten rules in the 9th inning of a 2-run lead? Closer can’t strike anybody out?[/quote]Of course he can. But since the Dodgers scored 12 runs yesterday, they’re not allowed to score any more during this series.

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  42. Steve Swisher

    Also: I’m in the seventh circle of hell (rural southern Michigan), so I can’t see the game. How did Quade not try to go for more runs?

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  43. Mish

    [quote name=Suburban Kid]Of course he can. But since the Dodgers scored 12 runs yesterday, they’re not allowed to score any more during this series.[/quote]Unless they pay some of Silva’s $11.5M contract

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  44. bubblesdachimp

    [quote name=mb21]I don’t want to trade a league minimum player who has value.[/quote]
    I dont necesarrily either but he might have more value to someone else than he does to us

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  45. mb21

    [quote name=bubblesdachimp]I dont necesarrily either but he might have more value to someone else than he does to us[/quote]Like the Royals? The Cubs aren’t going to be contending. They’ve been trying to shed payroll for a few years. Seems to me the Cubs might be the single team who needs a player like Barney the most. As long as Barney is cheap and valuable, I see no reason to trade him and pay someone else to do what Barney can.

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  46. mb21

    [quote name=Steve Swisher]Also: I’m in the seventh circle of hell (rural southern Michigan), so I can’t see the game. How did Quade not try to go for more runs?[/quote]It was an unwritten rule not and we know Quade gets pissed when people break unwritten rules.

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  47. mb21

    [quote name=Suburban Kid]Apparently the Cubs will neither win nor lose consecutive games this season.[/quote]False. They already won 2 in a row. They were 1-2 and then 3-2, right? Once is enough though. Unwritten rule against winning 2 in a row.

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  48. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]False. They already won 2 in a row. They were 1-2 and then 3-2, right? Once is enough though. Unwritten rule against winning 2 in a row.[/quote]
    How dare all those teams with better records break such a sacred unwritten rule.

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  49. Berselius

    I would never have guessed that there were zero Cubs HRs on a day where the Cubs scored 10 runs, Ted Lilly was pitching, and the wind was blowing out.

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  50. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Berselius]I would never have guessed that there were zero Cubs HRs on a day where the Cubs scored 10 runs, Ted Lilly was pitching, and the wind was blowing out.[/quote]
    You can’t hit homers against a former teammate. Professional courtesy/unwritten rule.

    Dempster gave up enough homers for both teams anyway.

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  51. bubblesdachimp

    [quote name=mb21]Like the Royals? The Cubs aren’t going to be contending. They’ve been trying to shed payroll for a few years. Seems to me the Cubs might be the single team who needs a player like Barney the most. As long as Barney is cheap and valuable, I see no reason to trade him and pay someone else to do what Barney can.[/quote]
    I agree with your premise im just saying if someone sees him as a ss and wants to pay the price for a cost controlled ss wd should be willing to listen. I like him a lot and him and castro have a great thing going together but he is tradeable for the right price.

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  52. melissa

    [quote name=mb21]False. They already won 2 in a row. They were 1-2 and then 3-2, right? Once is enough though. Unwritten rule against winning 2 in a row.[/quote]
    False. Cubs were 1-1, , 2-2, 3-3, all the way to 10-10. An MLB first

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  53. mb21

    [quote name=melissa]False. Cubs were 1-1, , 2-2, 3-3, all the way to 10-10. An MLB first[/quote]This team is special.

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  54. AndCounting

    That was a pretty fun game today. Last year’s Cubs would have not shown up for their at-bats after the seventh inning. They would have forfeited and went out partying.

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  55. Berselius

    [quote name=AndCounting]That was a pretty fun game today. Last year’s Cubs would have not shown up for their at-bats after the seventh inning. They would have forfeited and went out partying.[/quote]
    They would be too busy holing up in their race-delineated fortresses in the locker room to go party.

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  56. Aisle424

    What the fuck is wrong with Dempster? I didn’t see any of the game and only heard the end. Was this a wind-blowing out thing?

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  57. Berselius

    [quote name=Aisle424]What the fuck is wrong with Dempster? I didn’t see any of the game and only heard the end. Was this a wind-blowing out thing?[/quote]
    It seems like he’s going to 3-2 on every batter he’s faced. The Barajas HR today was wind aided but the other two were no doubters

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  58. Mish

    mb21, I know you and someone were recently talking about the value of a strikeout compared to other outs. So you may want to check out this article:

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/pimp-my-woba/

    It looks at the various lwts for the different outs in the wOBA calculation, and gives you a modified version. Ultimately, the value of the different types of outs tends to have at most a 3 point effect on wOBA, so it’s not a huge deal.

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  59. mb21

    Dempster was the number 1 starter this year and those guys suck at the beginning of the year for the Cubs. If Dempster was Hispanic he’d be getting a bullpen test, but by the end of the season he’ll do what we expect him to do. Next season I think the Cubs should just have their worst starter start on Opening Day.

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  60. melissa

    [quote name=Aisle424]What the fuck is wrong with Dempster? [/quote]
    Be nice. We’re talking about a human being here.

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  61. Suburban kid

    It’s absolutely clear to me that this team is different from last year’s. Last year’s team would have folded up its tent after going behind 8-5; this year’s club seems to know how to come back, having done so on several occasions already even in games they haven’t managed to come all the way back and win.

    If Ryno worked weekends, he’d be saying Al has got to be a bit.

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  62. mb21

    [quote name=Aisle424]Clearly, it is a stone cold fact that last year’s team would have collapsed under similar circumstances. Anyone else who thinks differently is a fun-sucker who doesn’t like to allow other people to have opinions.[/quote]
    [quote name=Al Yellon] It’s absolutely clear to me that this team is different from last year’s. Last year’s team would have folded up its tent after going behind 8-5; this year’s club seems to know how to come back, having done so on several occasions already even in games they haven’t managed to come all the way back and win.[/quote]
    (dying laughing)

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  63. Suburban kid

    [quote name=mb21](dying laughing)[/quote]Clearly, it’s absolutely clear, Al is a creation of Aisle 424.

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  64. Berselius

    Jay Jackson is pitching for Iowa on Tuesday. He might as well make that start for the Cubs instead of Russell

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  65. Berselius

    Not one mention of Castro? Him and Barney have been incredible. by Bad Midget on Apr 23, 2011 5:54 PM EDT reply actions

    Yep. They’re gonna be like Kessinger and Beckert in the lores of Cubdom. by zevkalman on Apr 23, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions

    (dying laughing)

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  66. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Berselius]Jay Jackson is pitching for Iowa on Tuesday. He might as well make that start for the Cubs instead of Russell[/quote]
    I like this idea.

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  67. mb21

    A lot has been said about Castro’s swings, but holy shit, Darwin Barney makes a shitload of contact and rarely swings and misses. Prior to today, his swing percentage is just under 40% and league average is close to 46. His zone contact % is 98.5% and his swinging strike percentage is only 2.7%.

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  68. Doogolas

    Yeah, I think the reason people are amazed with Castro’s is that he seems to swing so hard and hits everything so hard. Theriot was a fantastic contact hitter too, but like Barney more of a singles guy (though Barney has shown a slightly bigger propensity for finding gaps than Theriot to this point) but all the same. A guy like Castro who swings so hard and hits it so hard just doesn’t seem like he should make the really, really great contact that he does.

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  69. Aisle424

    [quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), well played Tim[/quote]
    (dying laughing) I had not seen the quote from Al when I wrote that.

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