Time: 2:20 PM CST
TV: ABC 7 Chicago, MLB Network
Radio: 670 the Score
Cubs
Happ CF
Bryant 3B
Zobrist 1B
Contreras C
Schwarber LF
Russell SS
Heyward RF
Baez 2B
Tyler Chatwood SP
Pirates
Harrison 2B
Polanco RF
Marte CF
Bell 1B
Dickerson LF
Cervelli C
Moran 3B
Mercer SS
Ivan Nova SP
I think I’m the high man on the planet for the Pirates. I don’t hate that lineup – not sure there’s an all-star on it but it is pretty deep, with nobody so bad that you feel there is a free out to be had. There’s a lot of value in having a low-variance lineup, where you can feel that you can consistently score a few runs. I’m not sure the Pirates are better than the Cardinals or the Brewers (in fact, I’m very sure they aren’t), but if you told me that they’d have a better record than one of them I wouldn’t be shocked at all.
Of course, that pitching staff is horrible (though with some upside). The Cubs will dodge the staff ace (Taillon) and today they get Nova, who is almost the definition of a league-average pitcher. He’s a pitch to contact guy who should be helped by the extreme frigidity of today’s game.
Tyler Chatwood is going to have to not walk a shitload of batters today. Free passes are going to be backbreakers in a game that figures to have almost no offense due to course conditions. Saying that, prepare for an 8-6 game or something.
Comments
Don’t tell me what to do.
berseliusQuote Reply
anddddd the game is postponed for tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/983375259956137984
mylesQuote Reply
myles,
Cubs might not lose.
TyroneQuote Reply
Baseball picked a hell of a year to start the season early (not that it’s relevant to this relatively late home opener).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
You may be right, but my guess is that at the end of the year the group the Cubs have now end up with better numbers than if you substituted the guys who were in the bullpen last year when some of us were complaining about the bullpen. I think that’s where this discussion began.
dmick89Quote Reply
I wouldn’t be surprised either way. The changes look pretty even to me (Morrow/Davis, Grimm/Butler, Cishek/Rondon).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I’d prefer Morrow because I think he’s going to walk fewer people and probably allow fewer home runs than Davis would have. I can see the argument that they’re about the same and I think they’re close, but I’d take Morrow over Davis. I don’t know much about Butler, but you’re probably right. I like Cishek a lot more than Rondon as we discussed. Like you, I also think Wilson is going to be about what we expected when the trade happened last year. He just couldn’t get comfortable last year, but like Strop and Edwards, he’s going to lose the zone every once in awhile and it’s going to be frustrating.
dmick89Quote Reply
Sounds like the Cubs are finally giving up and just putting Rizzo on the DL.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Brewers are really missing Knebel right now.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I hope that game goes 30 innings and somehow both teams lose.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Four walks in the inning by the new Cardinals closer.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cardinals lose.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
If you had Efren Navarro in the pool, I’d like your input on the next Powerball numbers.
Rice at homeQuote Reply
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-marlins-will-sue-almost-anyone/
berseliusQuote Reply
To day’s base ball squadron:
Happ
Bryant
Zobrist
Contreras
Schwarber
Russell
Heyward
Baez
Chatwood
PerkinsQuote Reply
Rizzo ——–> DL (officially)
Efren Navarro ——> Cubs
berseliusQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
That’s a libelous statement and you’ll be hearing from our attorneys.
The Miami MarlinsQuote Reply
berselius,
Sounds like he looked tired.
TyroneQuote Reply
berselius,
That’s 2.1 mph less per inning after the 2nd and 3rd. If that continued he’d have been throwing some fastballs in the 70s in the 6th inning. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
This radio broadcast is really annoying with that constant shuttering sound.
mylesQuote Reply
I had the zuckerberg testimony on at the same time (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) I’m an idiot
mylesQuote Reply
I kind of doubt Wainwright lasts the season in the rotation. And while I hope he does for the Cubs’ sake, the Cardinals would probably be better served to use him in relief for his swan song season.
Hell of a career though.
PerkinsQuote Reply
dmick89,
But the rate of decline is declining each inning too. I’m betting he’d be roughly 85.1 in the 6th inning.
TyroneQuote Reply
Perkins,
Hopefully he has the presence to not go in through the out door during his coda.
TyroneQuote Reply
Schwarber with the nice piece of hitting
mylesQuote Reply
Well they’ve been the Browns for the last few decades, so I guess why stop now?
TyroneQuote Reply
Cervelli struck out looking to end the inning, except the umpire called it a ball.
PerkinsQuote Reply
On gameday it’s a pretty egregious call.
mylesQuote Reply
Javier Baez!!!!!!
mylesQuote Reply
Javy!!!
Nice hop.
dmick89Quote Reply
Not super impressed with Chatwood so far.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Once Chatwood gets out of the bandbox that is Wrigley in April he’ll be fine
MylesQuote Reply
Perkins,
He’s exceptional at allowing men on base.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think that’s 18 or 19 runners allowed on base in under 9 innings.
dmick89Quote Reply
Jeebus, Chatwood.
berseliusQuote Reply
Hey, we knew when he signed that he pitched better on the road…
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It’s only two starts, but at the moment I’m not impressed by the elite spin rate.
PerkinsQuote Reply
2020 ASG ——-> LADoLA
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
He wasn’t very good with elite spin rate so I’m not really sure why anyone would expect him to good now just because he switched uniforms. Chatwood isn’t a bad pitcher and he’s probably not as bad as he’s pitched through two games (he was lucky to not give up at least 4 runs in his first start). He’s also not very good.
dmick89Quote Reply
Wasn’t that the one we were supposed to be locks for?
mylesQuote Reply
Man, for some reason I thought Chatwood was a lefty.
berseliusQuote Reply
myles,
I think the Cubs were at least strongly in the running. The Dodgers haven’t hosted one since 1980, so that’s another decade beyond the Cubs. But I think 2021 would be a possibility since they stopped mandating that the site alternate leagues every year.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Would like the Cubs to score some runs, please.
mylesQuote Reply
I miss the 2016 offense.
dmick89Quote Reply
PerkinsQuote Reply
Well, that was fun.
mylesQuote Reply
Almost had them.
Rice at homeQuote Reply
How hard would it be for MLB At Bat notifications to not sound ridiculous? We had the papa slam and they constantly refer to a no hitter as a no no. Stop it.
dmick89Quote Reply
Oh no, the no no bid is no more.
dmick89Quote Reply
Yet another blown save for Milwaukee.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Felipe Rivero –——–> Felipe Vazquez
GWQuote Reply
Clearly they should be calling it a nope nope.
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phone,
(dying laughing) that would at least be funny.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d go with “amusing, but wrong-amusing, but wrong” myself.
mylesQuote Reply
1) Spin rate believers think it’s a tool to identify underperformance. A way to quantify “stuff,” in conjunction with fastball velocity, maybe other things. I haven’t seen the definitive article, nor have I ever found it all that useful for fantasy purposes. My guess is that there is an effect, and that it’s quite a bit less useful than just looking at traditional DIPs numbers.
2) With Chatwood, there’s also the additional altitude factor. Ad absurdum: curve balls don’t break in outer space. Drew Pomeranz is the canonical example for getting a breaking-ball pitcher out of Coors. As I mentioned in a piece a while back, I have yet to see anyone correct for the fact that spin rates should also be faster at altitudes, so I don’t know if this should temper our assessment of his spin rates. We should be able to answer that one fairly soon.
Also, as someone here pointed out, if his breaking pitches start moving a lot more, that could ultimately be a problem for a guy with fairly shaky control.
GWQuote Reply
“We know you’re a good football player, boy, but can you make a commitment to us that you’ll stop exercising your rights?”
TyroneQuote Reply
Any chance they get the game in tonight?
WaLiQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
CF Almora
3B Bryant
C Contreras
LF Zobrist
SS Russell
1B Caratini
2B Baez
RF Heyward
P Lester
berseliusQuote Reply
No game thread today unless dmick wants to be a hero. No dinner for me.
MylesQuote Reply
I’ll never get tired of Lester’s bounce-passes.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Goddamnit.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Lester is getting squeezed and not missing bats.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Come on, Javy.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Javy!!!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Come on, Jay-Hey.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Javy!
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
Ugh, that’s bad luck.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
How the hell do you hit a ground-rule double in Wrigley?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
(dying laughing), Caratini looking good at 1B is making me laugh even more at Braun.
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Get it stuck in the ivy.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The way Coomer says Brault sounds like he’s saying Peralta.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
That’s not what happened…
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
<3 Javy
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
Bryant!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Pour it on!
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
Willson needs to be more aggressive in spots like that.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Zobrist!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hell yeah!
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
Heyward!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Happ!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Heyward! Happ!
PerkinsQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
I know. I will go to my room as punishment for my impertinence.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Not to be greedy, but a few more runs would be nice.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
All we need now is a pinch-hit Schwarbomb
ceruleanQuote Reply
Thanks, Kris.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Another four spot is nice. But five spots are better.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Javy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Javy again!
PerkinsQuote Reply
Javy likes Wrigley
ceruleanQuote Reply
Heyward (before his last AB) and Baez were both hitting .229; Javy’s OPS was .343 more than J-Hey’s.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Javier Baez now is: .229/.372/.714
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Inverted M
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Truth be told, I think I am more impressed with his “isolated on base” than his ISO.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Javy’s BABIP is .190—he’s due some positive regression (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
More Javy:
1B: 1
2B: 1
3B: 2
HR: 4
That’s an interesting distribution of hits. He will finish the season with 16 singles, 16 doubles, 32 triples, and 64 homeruns.
ceruleanQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/cubs-13-pirates-5-4-11-18/
berseliusQuote Reply