I have a funny game that I'd like to play. It's no secret that the Cubs have been tremendously lucky over the past 4 years, drafting-wise (and even Almora is good from 5 drafts ago). What shocked me is just how good the Cubs have been – they could easily have not had an opportunity to take Bryant or Schwarber and ended up with them both. Happ was the 9th pick in the draft his year, and looks better than many drafted ahead of him. That got me thinking. Which package would you rather have:
Option 1
Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ
Option 2
Jon Gray, Kohl Stewart, Clint Frazier, Colin Moran, Nick Gordon, Alex Jackson, Aaron Nola, Kyle Freeland, Cornelius Randolph, Tyler Stephenson, Josh Naylor, Garrett Whitley
Option 1 is who the Cubs drafted. Option 2 is the 4 players afterwards in each of the drafts. There's a lot to unpack, so let's organize those 12.
Flotsam (projected lifetime WAR of 1.0 or less)
Alex Jackson, Cornelius Randolph, Tyler Stephenson, Josh Naylor
Intriguing (org top 10, not top 101)
Kohl Stewart, Kyle Freeland, Garrett Whitley
Nice Prospects (top 101 prospects)
Clint Frazier, Nick Gordon
Role Players (bench pieces, back-end starters)
Colin Moran
Starters
Jon Gray, Aaron Nola
Superstars
None
First, let's start with Ian Happ. I think he's probably worth all the intriguing guys and flotsam combined – in fact, the Cubs would probably need a little more than that in the theoretical trade. Still, it's close enough, and it's a 7-for-1. Stewart is probably a 7th inning guy, and Freeland (who I still like a lot) profiles as a 5th starter/Travis Wood type. Out of the other 5, you'd be surprised if you got a bench piece, but they were first rounders for a reason.
Next, let's deal with Schwarber. If the Cubs traded Schwarber, they'd clearly be able to get Gordon and Frazier, with Moran as more-or-less a throw-in. Frazier is a legit stud prospect, and Gordon is probably a starting 2B in the near future. Moran is a corner infielder on the bench, but that's still a valuable piece for a rookie contract. I don't think you could get Gray or Nola AND the rest of that package, though – just look at the price that young pitching has commanded recently.
That said, Bryant could return Gray and Nola and the Cubs would need way more to say yes to that. This seems obvious. I'm super-high on Gray, but super-high means that "I think he can solve his high-leverage problems and become a No.3 starter." Aaron Nola is a No.3 starter right now. Kris Bryant is the 2nd, 3rd or 4th best player in baseball depending on how you feel about Kershaw and Donaldson.
Put it all together, and I think you'd pretty convincingly rather have Happ, Schwarber, and Bryant over the 12 players drafted after them. That's sort of unbelievable to think about, and yet it's extremely plausible. Moreover, you'd probably agree with each one for each year:
2013 – Bryant over Gray, Stewart, Frazier, Moran (this is probably close, but edge to Bryant certainly)
2014 – Schwarber over Gordon, Jackson, Nola, Freeland (again, this is probably close, maybe even dead even, but Schwarber is the highest impact and a relative sure thing)
2015 – Happ over Randolph, Stephenson, Naylor, Whitley (this isn't close)
That's just some incredible, incredible drafting by JedCo. We are extremely fortunate.
Comments
Apparently the deal would be Cousins and No. 17 overall for SF’s No. 2 overall.
Not sure how to feel about that…
RynoQuote Reply
oh man, that sucks…the cubs totally ended up winning the world series in november. too bad you didn’t stick around for just another few days. it was great though, i recommend looking up the youtube highlights.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Ryno,
Doesn’t sound great to me, but I have no idea how good or bad Cousins is, and how valuable or not the #2 pick is in the draft this year. I’d probably hope for Washington to include either their 2nd round or 3rd pick as well. Or maybe a pick in next year’s draft? I’m trying to think back to what the Bears gave up for Cutler and how this compares.
EdwinQuote Reply
Jesus, guys, slow down. I can’t keep up.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Edwin,
If Myles Garrett isn’t there, SF should try to trade out of the No. 2 pick.
As far as Cousins, he’s not as good as most people think. To get an idea of SF’s offense under Cousins, just picture Washington’s offense with worse running backs, tight ends, running backs and offensive linemen.
RynoQuote Reply
Those were some recent drafts I enjoyed.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
I’m not sure why Sosa is getting so much heat. To me, his quote reads like he is specifically NOT comparing himself to Jesus. He’s saying “Everyone shit all over Jesus, I’m nothing compared to Jesus, so obviously all of the haters are gonna dump all over me even more.”
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Interesting way of looking at it. Personally, the “next four” thing doesn’t carry much weight after consensus breaks down. Opinions from the time are pretty important, and they start to flatten out pretty quickly after pick 5 or 10, depending on the draft. Also, Josh Naylor is basically Hayden Simpson.
I give them a highest honors for Schwarber, thank God that the Astros took Appel, and don’t really have strong feelings about Happ. Almora was OK, but hindsight hasn’t been kind. Outside of the first round, it would be nice to have seen a bit more.
GWQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
If those quotes were from Luke Scott instead of Sosa, would you feel the need to defend them?
I love Sammy, and think the rift is silly. But that won’t keep me from laughing when he drops a Jesus analogy. Arguments are not soldiers.
GWQuote Reply
GW,
Its not even that I feel the need to defend him. I just don’t think that he compared himself to Jesus. Which is what most people seem to be claiming.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
This is true. Originally the idea was to do everyone drafted before these 3, but a) definitionally the Cubs couldn’t have drafted them and b) the 2015 draft made it extremely likely that the Cubs would want the other guys.
Myles HandleyQuote Reply
Schwarber leading off should be tons of fun!
Rice in limboQuote Reply
Schwarber LF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Zobrist 2B
Contreras C
Russell SS
Heyward RF
Jay CF
Lester P
Is my best guess at the opening day lineup.
I’d prefer
Schwarber LF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Zobrist RF
Contreras C
Russell SS
Baez 2B
Heyward CF
Lester P
MylesQuote Reply
Sounds like the Cubs and Sosa aren’t mending fences anytime soon. That’s a shame.
EdwinQuote Reply
Yeah, I don’t get it. It doesn’t cost the Cubs anything to do it other than possibly some howling from Yellon and other bitter, unforgiving meatheads. Cubs would also have plenty of cover given this being the Era of Good Feelings. It’d be the classy move.
They don’t have to make him the face of the organization again. But an invite. Sammy Sosa Appreciation Day. Throw out the first pitch. Sit in a nice seat. Done. Where’s the harm?
But maybe there’s more to it than what I’m seeing.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I’m sure there is, but it’s been over a decade. It doesn’t really matter what happened at this point. It’s time for the organization to get over it and appreciate Sosa for how good a ballplayer he was. They don’t have to appreciate how good a teammate he was or how good he was at sticking around on the final day of the season. Nobody can argue about whether or not he was a really good ballplayer for the Cubs and the face of the organization for nearly a decade.
dmick89Quote Reply
Myles,
I believe Joe is considering batting the pitcher 8th again to get a man in front of Schwarber second time through, which I am not against.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
dmick89,
There are a number of theories, including:
1. Bad teammate
2. Left early
3. PEDs
4. This one I heard and I don’t know if it’s true, but apparently people believe that Ricketts takes his cues from Kerry Wood and Wood might have said to cut Sosa off. Although this doesn’t gibe with what Wood said a while back about welcoming Sammy back, so who the fuck knows anymore…
Actually I guess Wood said something about retiring Sammy’s number and that he belonged in HOF, but not so much about welcoming him back? It’s been a while.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
That tradeoff only makes sense if the bottom of your lineup is offensively barren. I want to reduce the number of chances a pitcher comes up to the plate when Addison Russell is on base. It doesn’t make sense to me to give the pitcher 50 extra plate appearances in a year to replace the .165 OBP of the person in front of Schwarber with the .330 OBP of Jon Jay when difference between successful plate appearances of Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber isn’t going to be 50 PA (approximately 70 points of OBP). If you need people on base in front of Schwarber so bad, bat him 2nd and put Addy in the 1 hole.
MylesQuote Reply
In case I haven’t made myself clear, I expect Addison Russell to offensively explode this year and I base this on very spurious evidence.
MylesQuote Reply
Rice in limbo,
Even if all that is true, at this point the Cubs just look bad. In 2004 Sosa looked bad and was clearly in the wrong. Enough time has passed to let this shit go, but whatever. My vote doesn’t count for shit.
dmick89Quote Reply
Myles,
Anything less than a .400/.500/.750 line and I’ll be pissed.
dmick89Quote Reply
Myles,
I’d honestly rather see Rizzo cleaning up and Zobrist hitting third. (I mean, I’d like to see him get more at-bats, but the numbers people say the fourth spot is more important.)
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I understand why Sosa’s comments might have made it harder. Teams expect players to play the role of apologetic prodigal son, filled with remorse over their foolish and shameful past descisions, and the Team gets to be the gracious host, accepting the player back into the fold as an act of supreme grace and charity. And the fans get to feel good that the egotystical player finally learned the errors of their ways and were punished justly for daring to believe that they were somehow better than the fans that paid good money and ate many sandwhiches in the OF bleachers to watch them play. Sosa basically said fuck that.
I’ll freely admit that I’m biased here. Sosa became amazing when I was a kid, so he’s my favorite player ever. I put the 1998 season right up there with this past season as my favorite seasons ever. Sosa certianly could have handled things better, and if he would just swallow his pride and say “I did steroids, I’m sorry”, whether he did them or not (probably did), he’d be welcomed back fairly easily. But it would be just as easy for the Team to reach out to Sosa and simply bring him in and end this stupid fued. If they can handle the PR heat in bringing in Chapman, I see no reason why they can’t bring back Sosa.
EdwinQuote Reply
Good point. People can say what they want about Sosa, but to my knowledge, he’s nowhere near as big a piece of shit as Chapman and I was perfectly fine with the Cubs adding Chapman.
dmick89Quote Reply
I was an adult when Sosa came along, but he made watching Cubs baseball fun. Even if the team sucked, it was must see baseball until you knew for sure he had his last plate appearance. Whether these fans want to admit it or not, they loved every minute of it at the time.
dmick89Quote Reply
Slugging that low?
Myles HandleyQuote Reply
Myles Handley,
That’s ISO
BerseliusQuote Reply
To-morrow’s base ball squadron
Heyward RF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Zobrist 2B
Russell SS
Contreras C
Jay CF
Szczur LF
Happ DH
P Montgomery
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius,
That looks like a regular season lineup but what of the other split squad?
Rice in limboQuote Reply
Rice in limbo,
Kyle Schwarber, LF
Javy Baez, 2B
Jeimer Candelario, 3B
Miguel Montero, C
Albert Almora, CF
Chris Dominguez, 1B
John Andreoli, RF
Munenori Kawasaki, SS
Mark Zagunis, DH
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Finally get to see Chris Dominguez in a Cubs uniform.
MylesQuote Reply
Monty seems wild today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Awesome, Eloy Jiminez got into a game today
berseliusQuote Reply
The last time the Cubs had a winning record in Spring Training was 2012.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
A few really good ABs and meatball fans will be wondering if he will make the trip to St. Louis opening day.
AlbaloneyQuote Reply
I think the idea is to have the most guys on base when you get to the part of the order where guys hit .300 vs when your hitter is a .250 hitter. Yeah, we kill a rally or two having the pitcher hit 8th, but we also have a few extra rallies with Schwarbryzzo up; likely having 0-1 out rather than 1-2 outs. In average run expectancy, it’s probably a wash, all things considered.
sharpchicityQuote Reply
sharpchicity,
From what I’ve read about it, the pitcher hitting 8th is usually a little bit better for run expectancy, but not a whole lot. It’s not so much that if the guy who hits 9th is going to take it personally that it’s worth it and until it’s more common, I’m sure every single player who hits 9th takes it personally. I can understand the benefits of the pitcher hitting 8th, but I think I’d still prefer them to be hitting 9th unless the pitcher is a really good hitter.
dmick89Quote Reply
My first preference would be that pitchers don’t hit at all and this debate becomes pointless.
dmick89Quote Reply
#FireEpstink
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
I suppose this is more appropriate.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
Fake news.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
You’re the puppet. #nopuppet
RynoQuote Reply
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwj8sZDMzbDSAhXq5oMKHQupAyEQyCkIHDAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DuyhC_KZtBRo&usg=AFQjCNFe8_xl2sYl0c8HGKDyZ9Ntl2wz6Q&sig2=YXMrPkhAfPBCSqytvfHU0Q
MylesQuote Reply
Ryno,
(dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/25-kris-bryant/
mylesQuote Reply