Cubs interested in Brandon McCarthy?

In Commentary And Analysis by dmick89105 Comments

It was mentioned last night that the Cubs are interested in Brandon McCarthy. I have two things to say.

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury
9/6/12 10/12/12 DtdDL 36 26 – Head Surgery
6/20/12 8/10/12 15-DL 51 43 Right Shoulder Strain
6/8/12 6/19/12 DTD 11 9 Right Shoulder Soreness
5/18/12 6/2/12 15-DL 15 13 Right Shoulder Strain
5/3/12 5/12/12 DTD 9 7 Right Shoulder Soreness
3/21/12 3/28/12 Camp 7 0 Left Fingers Laceration
8/12/11 8/12/11 DTD 0 0 Right Knee Contusion
5/19/11 7/3/11 15-DL 45 41 Right Shoulder Stress Fracture
7/29/10 11/1/10 60-DL 95 61 Right Shoulder Recovery From Stress Fracture
6/20/10 7/29/10 Minors 39 0 Right Shoulder Stress Fracture
6/11/10 6/19/10 Minors 8 0 Right Shoulder Inflammation
4/26/10 6/3/10 Minors 38 0 Right Shoulder Stress Fracture
6/5/09 9/1/09 60-DL 88 77 Right Shoulder Stress Fracture
3/1/09 3/12/09 Camp 11 0 Right Shoulder Soreness
9/16/08 9/29/08 DTD 13 11 Right Fingers Strain
3/30/08 8/23/08 60-DL 146 129 Right Forearm Inflammation
3/3/08 3/30/08 Camp 27 0 Right Forearm Tightness
2/26/08 3/7/08 Camp 10 0 Right Elbow Soreness
9/21/07 10/1/07 DTD 10 9 Right Forearm Tightness
8/11/07 9/11/07 15-DL 31 27 Right Shoulder Stress Fracture
6/10/07 7/2/07 15-DL 22 19 Right Fingers Blisters
5/26/07 6/9/07 DTD 14 13 Right Fingers Blisters
6/16/06 6/16/06 DTD 0 0 Left Knee Contusion

 

Year IP fWAR rWAR WARP
2005 67 0.5 1 0.1
2006 84.2 0 0.9 1
2007 101.2 1.3 0.5 0.7
2008 22 0.2 0.4 0
2009 97.1 1.4 0.6 0.1
2010 – – – –
2011 170.2 4.8 2.9 2.4
2012 111 1.8 2 1

I don't think I'd be too interested in signing this guy to a long-term contract. It obviously depends on the price, but he's had a million arm injuries and has really only been good over his last 280 innings. Those are more important than what he did in 2005, but considering the injuries and his previous ineffectiveness, I'd only get involved if he's going to be signed for 3 years and something like $20 million.

After thinking about this more, I'd stay away unless it's a 1-year deal.

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Comments

  1. Berselius

    I’d only get involved if he’s going to be signed for 3 years and something like $20 million.

    I want the Cubs to sign McCarthy, but for a lot less than that (dying laughing). I was thinking he’d get a deal in the 1/5 flier range from someone, but his numbers the past two years were a little better than I expected.

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  2. mb21

    WaLi wrote:

    @ mb21:
    Sorry I was also referring to the SBA and RM, but I agree with you. There are a lot of things to account for, especially with SH attempts. I would think it would be simple enough to account for how often a SH would have been possible with regards to how many times it was actually attempted.

    It wouldn’t be difficult for someone who can comb through the play by play data, but I’m not sure it would give us any additional useful information. We could easily figure out how many times the Cubs had a runner at 1st or 2nd base, but that’s not enough. We need to know who was batting and what the score is.

    What we really need is more years. I can say from what I’ve noticed looking at these over the years, that Sac bunts and runners moving are actually fairly consistent for managers. What I can’t say is how Sveum is going to manage with a good team. That said, there’s more than enough examples of very bad teams bunting the shit out of the ball.

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  3. Aisle424

    The shoulder soreness all last season (until he had his head broken) is disconcerting at best. I can’t imagine the Cubs throw a truckload of cash at him. Maybe they throw the most at him for 1 year and figure they’ll extend him if it goes well and let him go if not.

    Maybe he takes that hoping to parlay it into a bigger pay day next off-season. I don’t know, but I’d be as reluctant to commit 3 years to this guy as I am to commit 3 years to relievers.

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  4. mb21

    @ Berselius:
    I think the only way he goes for 1/5 is if the medical reports show him unlikely to start the season healthy. Otherwise I think he gets a 3 year deal in the range of 27 million. To be honest, I’d just stay away unless it’s a 1-year deal. His injury history is comparable to Kerry Wood’s.

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  5. mb21

    Aisle424 wrote:

    Maybe he takes that hoping to parlay it into a bigger pay day next off-season. I don’t know, but I’d be as reluctant to commit 3 years to this guy as I am to commit 3 years to relievers.

    Agreed. I have to take back what I said in the article. I’d say the hell away at 3 years. I would at 2 years also. Way too many injuries.

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  6. mb21

    mb21 wrote:

    What I can’t say is how Sveum is going to manage with a good team.

    And I don’t think we’ll ever get a chance to see how he’d do with a good team. (dying laughing)

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  10. Berselius

    He seems like the kind of guy a team like the Cubs would try to pick up – if he stays healthy, maybe then can flip him for something, if not all he costs is money.

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  12. jtsunami

    Isn’t McCarthy one of those guys who understands FIP and made adjustments to get his FIP down, making him better? McCarthy and Grienke are two that come to mind.

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  14. WaLi

    Have you guys considered his comedic clubhouse presence? We need someone to replace Dempster in that role!
    (his Twitter avatar – Picture of him after being struck in the head)

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  21. Rice Cube

    @ Mish:
    It was sort of like the “Chink in the Armor” headline for Jeremy Lin, except live and without enough time to fix before airing.

    I didn’t think the Jeremy Lin thing was intentional either, just bad wording.

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  25. Suburban kid

    @ Berselius:
    That’s a lot of finalists. They must have had an open call for applicants, like with the PA announcer job a couple years ago which my brother applied for.

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  26. Suburban kid

    @ Berselius:
    Have any of them done the job before?

    By that I mean, have they been the primary analyst on a team’s local TV broadcast?

    Isn’t Matthews on the radio?

    Isn’t Karros kind of a part-timer in LA?

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  31. mb21

    @ josh:
    Maybe that’s what I’m thinking of (that happened in San Diego).

    I don’t think any have had full-time tv gigs (Sarge is the closest). I’d still go with Plesac or Sutcliffe.

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  34. Suburban kid

    Sutcliffe’s drunk episode in SD was when he was just visiting the booth. He had been associated with the team as an ST coach or some shit, and maybe an occasional broadcaster. He does have a lot of experience calling games for ESPN and MLB International.

    I’m not saying having experience in the exact same role is necessary, but I think it’s preferable in an older candidate.

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  35. Suburban kid

    Rice Cube wrote:

    @ Berselius:
    I’m kinda bummed they didn’t talk to Doug Glanville. Dude is smart.

    Clearly, WGN/Comcast/The Cubs are not going after the smart demographic.

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  39. Suburban kid

    I can’t remember what Plesac is like. Hollandsworth seems like bland milquetoast. Karros is well spoken but overall pretty bland. I haven’t heard Sarge much. Sutcliffe’s plus is that he has a personality. Sometimes it is quite irritating but I’d rather someone who is full of himself than someone who is vacuous.

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  42. Aisle424

    josh wrote:

    @ Suburban kid:
    I think Sarge has a lot of personality.

    I have not heard a single good thing about Sarge’s broadcasting abilities. I think of the candidates, I’d have to go with Sutcliffe. He’s at least listenable and not a huge step down from Brenly. I was hoping for a step up, but sadly, Brenly really was probably one of the top guys.

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  46. Berselius

    Aisle424 wrote:

    I have not heard a single good thing about Sarge’s broadcasting abilities.

    I feel like I remember hearing good things about them before, but every Phillies fan that has commented on it has basically said “take Sarge, please!”. Sarge is also in his 60s, and WGN might be looking for someone a little more long-term. Then again, he could just be keeping the seat warm for Wood anyway. /ageism

    I guess I’d rather roll the dice on Plesac or Sutcliffe than get someone boring like Karros or worthless like Hollandsworth. Maybe they’d be better when they get away from the HYPE MACHINE that is ESPN/studio shows.

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  49. josh

    @ akabari:
    You can work for me. There’s no pay. Basically, you do my job and pretend to be me while I sit at home and write/draw comics/fap. You can sleep in my garage and eat whatever mice you find.

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  52. Suburban kid

    Important Chicago Cubs Season Ticket
    Waiting List Update

    Thank you for your continued support and patience as a member of the Chicago Cubs Season Ticket Waiting List. With the conclusion of the 2012 season, we’ve updated your Chicago Cubs Season Ticket Waiting List number.
    View your Wait List status

    Chicago Cubs Season Ticket Holders who received an invoice to renew their seats for the 2013 season have until November 12, 2012, to confirm their desire to purchase seats for 2013. Returning Chicago Cubs Season Ticket Holders will have the opportunity, through Saturday, December 1, 2012, to relocate and upgrade into seating locations that were not renewed.

    After December 1, we will identify season ticket inventory for individuals at the top of our Season Ticket Waiting List. Based on your place near the top of our Season Ticket Waiting List, we hope to have seating locations to offer you and would like to invite you to come to Wrigley Field to view and select available season ticket locations on Saturday, December 8.

    At your assigned appointment time, please check in at the Budweiser Bleacher entrance at Wrigley Field, on the corner of Sheffield and Waveland Avenue. At check in, you’ll be asked to show a government-issued photo ID. Beginning at your assigned appointment time, you’ll be given access to Wrigley Field to view and select seats available for purchase.

    I checked, and I’m still at 4,279 on the list. But it seems like they expect to have seats to offer me.

    (dying laughing) @ Cubs. I’m just a jerk in 2006 with an email account.

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  54. Suburban kid

    Either 4,000+ STH aren’t going to renew, or most of the people on the waiting list aren’t serious buyers, or some combo of the two.

    Wouldn’t 4,000 be around 15%, Aisley? And to think it was only recently that they had fewer than a dozen seats turn over per year.

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  55. akabari

    @ Suburban kid:
    Yeah, I’m looking. Its just awful to be one of those whole “my college degree got me this job?” Phases. Begging mode commence!
    @Josh sounds like a good deal. Can you pay me in Cubs rickets? At 9 cents a pop its a steal for you.

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  57. Mish

    OV only offers paid internships, wherein you pay to be an intern here.

    /guy who doesn’t write/administer OV (dying laughing)

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  58. Aisle424

    Suburban kid wrote:

    Wouldn’t 4,000 be around 15%, Aisley? And to think it was only recently that they had fewer than a dozen seats turn over per year.

    Hard to say. because you have to figure each account probably averages 2 tickets or more. I doubt there are very many single seat STH and there are certainly more 3s and 4s to make up for those singles in an average. So if we assume they think #4000 on the list will be eligible to buy seats, you have to figure they are expecting a turnover of around 8,000 seats. now if they figure in expected decline rate that changes the math again and I have no idea what is reasonable anymore. But moving the list 4,000 spots would be significant turnover. At least 10%, probably closer to 15%.

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  59. Aisle424

    Speaking of season tickets…

    Is anybody here interested in getting in on 1/4 to 1/3 of a Nights/Weekends package for a pair of seats? If we stay in 423, the total for the 2 seats is about $6,600. We’ve considered moving to the UD outfield which would make them $4,500 or so. There are 57 games and we split them up via draft and you pay for the games you select, so if you pick all the expensive games, you pay more, but it tends to split up fairly evenly when all the choosing is done.

    If you’re interested, shoot me an email at tmcginnis2002 (at) hotmail (dot) com.

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  60. Aisle424

    I should add that the package does come with post-season ticket purchasing rights to 2 games per round of the playoffs.

    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

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  61. Carne Harris

    I was really big on him till reading this but now a little bit of pee came out. Maybe one year with a club option. That club option really helped our haul with Maholm this year.

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  62. SVB

    @ Aisle424:
    Do you know how to identify an internet dinosaur? One clear indication below:
    Aisle424 wrote:

    shoot me an email at tmetc (at) hotmail (dot) com

    (dying laughing)

    When I collect student emails in class each semester, I specifically state that I will not accept any hotmail accounts because they fail so often in accepting attachments.

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  64. Aisle424

    @ SVB:
    It’s been my e-mail for 10 years and I’m not giving out the e-mail I actually use for people I know in real life to you crazy people.

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  66. SVB

    Word is that Jeremy Bonderman, 2 years removed from TJ surgery, is thinking about a comeback. I’d take a chance on him.

    Also, the Rockies talked to Steve Beuchele and Eric Young Sr about their manager job. Ah, glory days.

    (Both somewhere on MLBTR)

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  67. Berselius

    @ SVB:

    I keep a hotmail account around just to have an account for when I sign up for shit that I know will result in a bombardment of spam/update/etc emails. I think I check that account once every 2 months (dying laughing)

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  69. akabari

    @ mb21:
    The automated schedule fucked up and they cut my hours from 29 to 9. They said they would “investigate” but then the HR manager quit…etc. Need money to live, you know. No big deal. Plus everyone there is kind of a prick. I know, whine whine…etc.

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  71. josh

    @ akabari:
    I especially like the Freudian slip of “Cubs rickets.”

    That sucks dude. The summer after I graduated from college, I had to stay in the small town my school was in b/c my wife was trying to finish. I started out working at McDonalds. Then I got a job at Encue (one of those record/book stores Best Buy bought out) and then got fired from there for forgetting to lock the door one night, and then I moved up to working in restaurant. Also, I sent my resume to the local bank and was told they weren’t hiring but were impressed with my resume. A week later, a friend who was a local moved back to town and got a job the next day with that same bank.

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  72. Akabari

    @ josh:
    It’s reassuring to know that kind of thing, really. As in, post college can be shitty for other people too (dying laughing) (dying laughing)

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  75. Suburban kid

    @ josh:
    Sure, didn’t most people on this blog go to grad school because they couldn’t get a real job post-BA? I know I did. And post-masters, I did nearly a year of retail and a few months of temping before landing a real job.

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  79. Suburban kid

    @ Rice Cube:
    Aren’t the real Winter Meetings in December? Isn’t the November one just an owners meeting or GMs meeting — and only a warm-up to the real deal?

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  87. Rizzo the Rat

    @ Mish:

    1. OF Albert Almora
    2. SS Javier Baez
    3. OF Jorge Soler
    4. RHP Arodys Vizcaino
    5. 1B Dan Vogelbach
    6. OF Brett Jackson
    7. RHP Pierce Johnson
    8. RHP Duane Underwood
    9. 3B Christian Villanueva
    10. RHP Dillon Maples

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  88. Rizzo the Rat

    Castro and Rizzo are on top of the 26-and-under list unsurprisingly (they and BJax are the only ML’ers on the list).

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  90. WaLi

    @ Rizzo the Rat:
    Wasn’t Brett near the top last year? Do you think he dropped because of added talent or because he didn’t excel last year? Although more likely is a combination of both.

    Also where is Concepcion?

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  93. mb21

    @ WaLi:
    He dropped because he had a worse season in AAA than some were hoping and wasn’t very good at all at the MLB level.

    Concepcion should be in another organization. (dying laughing)

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  94. Rizzo the Rat

    @ WaLi:
    He had a down year in the minors and struggled in the majors. (Also, it’s written by a different person than last year.)

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  98. mb21

    First starting pitcher on the list (Pierce Johnson) profiles as a mid-rotation starter in the future. Jesus, this organization has no fucking pitching.

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