The Cubs’ primary free agent target of the offseason is now off the table. Masahiro Tanaka agreed to terms with the Yankees today on a 7 year/ $155 million deal. Ken Rosenthal broke the news this morning, following up with the tidbit that the Cubs were indeed among the finalists. Phil Rogers hears the same, that the Cubs were in the neighborhood. I tend to agree with Myles, who speculated that the Cubs were initially the high bidder, forcing teams who Tanaka actually wanted to play for to up their offers.
It’s hard to lay too much blame on the front office. Offering up significantly more than $175 million for a pitcher who has yet to throw a pitch in the majors doesn’t seem like the safest bet. On the other hand, I think there are a few takeaways that are less than comforting from the Cubs’ perspective.
1) Everyone in the world realizes how badly the Cubs suck.
There have been rumblings for the past few weeks that Tanaka had no particular desire to play for the Cubs. Given the current state of the roster, it’s hard to blame him. After all, one would think that part of his decision to come to the Majors was to surround himself with the best talent in the world. The only way he would have heard of half the players on the current Cubs is if Rakuten’s scouting department had worked up a list of players who may decide to head over to Japan in the next few years.
2) The Cubs are not capable of doing whatever it takes.
Since the beginning of the offseason we’ve heard rumblings that the Cubs “wouldn’t be outbid” and would do whatever it took to land Tanaka. To those of us who have long hoped that the Epstein front office would eventually wield a financial sledgehammer, this was good news. If it wasn’t before, I think it has become clear now that the hammer doesn’t exist. We all know that the Cubs are behind the curve when it comes to local television deals, and the implications of that tardiness are stronger than ever. The full slate of Cub games isn’t available for broadcast elsewhere until after the 2019 season. At that point, who knows what the market for broadcast rights will look like? I have serious doubts about whether the team will ever be in the same league financially as the Dodgers and Yankees. And it’s not just those behemoths that the club is competing with. Take a look at the rumored finalists for Tanaka:
Sources: #Yankees separated themselves on Tanaka, but not by much. #Cubs, #Dodgers, #WhiteSox and #Astros all were involved.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 22, 2014
While the Astros have recently signed a TV deal, that deal has produced substantially lower revenues for the club than anticipated. CSN-Houston has been unable to land carriage from any provider aside from it’s partial owners (Comcast) and owner Jim Crane is suing. The entire debacle is the current posterchild for analysts predicting the coming implosion of the sports-rights bubble. The White Sox, on the other hand are in a similar situation to the Cubs, lacking the kind of big money deal that other clubs benefit from. So what’s going on here?
It seems to me that there are enough like-minded front offices in the league now that the pursuit of any big name free agent by the Cubs is going to be problematic. Even if the Dodgers and Yankees happen to be out on a player, there are enough smaller market teams who see exactly what the Cubs see, and will be willing to divert a larger portion of their revenues towards that player. The fact that younger free agents are better values isn’t exactly a closely-guarded secret. Pretty much everyone gets that, and now there are plenty of front offices willing to make large bets in that direction.
If this offseason has taught us anything, it’s that baseball’s financial status can change rapidly, so I wouldn’t rule anything out. However, after the Ricketts purchased the team, I had hoped that they would become the Red Sox of the National League: a second-tier power capable of flexing its financial muscles when necessary, and significantly outspending 26-28 other clubs. Now I can’t see that happening for the foreseeable future.
Comments
@ Mucker:
I don’t either. That just happened to be the one draft where Kony Ealy went before CHI’s pick. I really think you could buy a Bears Ealy jersey right now.
Robinson was bpa by a wide margin when I ran that sim. I’m a believer that you should nearly always take bpa.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
Thank you sir. I don’t keep up on the college kids that much, but those are certainly spots the Chiefs need help at.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
SF
30 S HA’SEAN CLINTON-DIX ALABAMA – I’m still unhappy that SFs current safeties lost track of Baldwin in the NFCCG.
56 DT RA’SHEDE HAGEMAN MINNESOTA – He’s a bad, bad man…
61 WR BRANDIN COOKS OREGON STATE – Poor man’s Tavon Austin.
77 QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO EASTERN ILLINOIS – Garoppolo : My SF mocks :: Ealy : My CHI mocks
94 CB PIERRE DESIR LINDENWOOD – Great value on a smart, athletic CB.
125 RB CHARLES SIMS WVU – Maybe my favorite RB in this draft.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
That defense is too good up front to let IND do what they did in the playoffs. That, and the fact that the overrated Marcus Cooper is starting, tells me that the secondary needs help.
Like You CareQuote Reply
I don’t think this reflects on the Cubs’ ability to shell out big bucks. I think they probably made a huge offer but lost out to the Yankees because: a) Yankees probably offered more, and b) the Yankees have more prestige. In 10 years, when Bryant and Baez have a few MVPs under their belts, maybe that’s not true. But it’s pretty tough to beat a team that goes in with an offer that includes the words: Ruth, DiMaggio, Mantle, Maris, Riveria, Yeah Jeets — plus 4,739 World Series trophies.
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
Peter Gammons wrote:
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-three-thoughts-on-tanaka-deal-with-yankees/
GWQuote Reply
I’m interested to see how next offseason shakes out. It’s one thing to be willing spend, but another to be willing to outspend the competition. There should be some decent SP to be had next offseason, but if the Cubs are only willing to hand out “reasonable” contracts, will they actually be able to land any of them?
EdwinQuote Reply
Hmm. That’s a little disappointing.
@ GW:
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
The Red Sox are, in no universe, a “second tier power.”
ChuckQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
You see them signing Alex Smith long term, or drafting a QB in a middle round this year or both?
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ GW:
Seems like Gammons is talking out of his ass on this to me
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
@ Chuck:
fair enough. i had in mind the idyllic world of 10 years ago (and was referring to financial power, not talent). i still think they lack the level of spending power that the yanks and dodgers have.
GWQuote Reply
@ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
I don’t know, it sounds believable. The Cubs early on were reported as saying “they won’t be outspent”. Now reports come in saying they were outspent.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
could be. i suspect that the Cubs could have matched the offer, but that probably wouldn’t have been enough. i’m not sure whether they could have topped it enough to change his mind.
GWQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
Alex Smith is a pretty good fit for what Andy Reid wants to do and he’ll only be 30 next season. I think they give him a deal that basically pays him for three more years.
I don’t know what they think of Chase Daniel, but I don’t think they’d even consider taking a QB until the 5th or so. If a guy like Wyoming’s Brett Smith is still there, he’d be a good fit.
Like You CareQuote Reply
Like You CareQuote Reply
Chuck wrote:
It entirely depends on what you’re talking about. Talent over the last 5, 10 years or so? Absolutely not. Financially? I’d like someone to argue that they are in the same category as the Dodgers and Yankees. I think we can all agree they aren’t.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
And how many tiers are there? If there are 20 tiers, they could be considered 2nd tier. If there are only 2, then they are probably in the 1st tier.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ GW:
I think it also depends on how set Tanaka was on getting the no-trade and opt-out clause. We know the front office won’t give out the NTC and would presumably balk at the opt-out clause. That could have sealed the deal.
I’m not sure what, if anything, this says about the Cubs and/or its front office. I’d loved to have seen the Cubs sign the guy. I’d loved to have seen them flex some muscle along the way the last few years to get better at the MLB level. They did more than a fair job trying to acquire him unless Gammons is correct, which he may well be. In the end it’s up to Tanaka and if the Yankees can come close to matching the Cubs, that’s where he’d always end up.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I think it just means comfortably behind the Yankees and Dodgers, but ahead of a bunch of other teams. I knew exactly what GW meant and see no problem with it, but if people want to argue over, that’s fine.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ GW:
Oof. Gammons? I haven’t taken a word he’s said seriously in eons, especially on this sort of stuff. He could be right, but I’m going to wait until that gets confirmed by someone else before I accept it.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Until we know more, I’d like to think the Cubs were in that range, and then got beat by the Yankees matching with the dollars, and then finished off by the Yankee rep, the Japanese population of NYC, the NTC, and the opt-out.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Just for fun, since I’m bored, I’ll put together my ideal team based on this draft.
On defense, I’d probably employ a 4-3 Under:
RDE – Clowney. Easy.
NT – Louis Nix, ND. Big, quick two-gapper.
3T – Aaron Donald, PITT. He’s just too quick.
LDE – Kony Ealy.
SAM – Khalil Mack. Poor man’s Brian Orakpo.
MIKE – CJ Mosley, Bama. Sky’s the limit for this kid.
WILL – Dee Ford, Auburn. Probably poorly aligned here, but he’s so quick I think he could make it work.
With that front, I’d probably run Cover-1 man in the secondary with…
CB – Darqueze Dennard. Shut. Down.
CB – Justin Gilbert. Physical ballhawk.
FS – HaHa. CF.
SS – DeOne Bucannon.
Like You CareQuote Reply
dmick89, Sweatpants Guru wrote:
I suspect that the opt-out was a much bigger hurdle than the NTC, and Tanaka’s agent has insisted on that provision in other recent big-ticket deals (most recently, with Kershaw). For the Cubs, the opt-out severely damages the deal, probably moreso than it does for other teams. After all, the reason why they were interested in the guy was to grab a frontline starter who would still be in his prime once a young core was in place. If Tanaka can opt out in four, you’ve got him for one or two contending years at most, and in return you have to accept the risk that he sucks and underperforms for the length of the deal.
The Yankees seem to believe that they can (or must) win now, so taking the deal at 4/88 and worrying about the rest later on makes much more sense. It’s still kind of a raw deal for them, since you can bet that he opts out if he even comes close to earning his contract, whether that means wrangling a better, restructured deal from the Yanks or hitting the market. $22 mil for a frontline starter is going to look like a bargain by 2018.
His agent earned his pay here. He’s effectively given his client a shot at three top of the market paydays.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
I understood what he meant too and agree. I’m just being pissy (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
Offensively, I’d use a lot of 12 personnel.
QB – Bridgewater. Easy.
RB – Ka’Deem Carey, Arizona. I’m partial to Frank Gore and he’s the closest thing to him.
TE – Eric Ebron, UNC. Similar to Vernon Davis.
TE – Jace Amaro, TTech. Very athletic Flex TE.
WR – Sammy Watkins. Freak. Somehow I think he’s underrated too.
WR – Allen Robinson, PSU. I don’t think he’s the second best WR in this draft, but he fits perfectly with the rest of this offense. Boldin-like.
LT – Jake Matthews. Cornerstone.
LG – Greg Robinson, Auburn.
C – Travis Swanson, Arkansas.
RG – Taylor Lewan, Michigan. Hell yeah, I’m using four OTs!
RT – Cyrus Kouandjio.
Like You CareQuote Reply
good points about the opt-outs and ntc. nonetheless, those things have real financial value, and if the Cubs weren’t able to add more $’s to compensate, then they were clearly outspent. not that i think they necessarily should have gone much higher, but they clearly had to. and i think that says a lot about the current free agent market, and where the Cubs fit in.
GWQuote Reply
new shit:
http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/ugh-im-jealous-of-the-white-sox.html
GWQuote Reply
first peter gammon should be on some physic network because his sport rumors are 80% WRONG. and what in the heck does it matter to us about tv deals,are you trying for the president job of the team. tanaka is a gamble maybe a good one but still a unproven gamble. our farm system is the best I have ever seen in 50 years now the it is time for the big team to start to grow which we will see this year. they will be change this year dispite the fact they don’t spend like the Yankees or dodgers which will bite them also. the Yankees have spent a lot for such little results and were are the dodgers rings from last years spending
mQuote Reply