Through 11 games the Cubs have scored 45 runs. It should be understood that this is a small sample size. That being said, the Cubs have played eight games against pretty bad teams and only three games against a team anyone thinks will come close to finishing at .500 or above. Nearly five of those games have come against the two teams expected to finish at the very bottom of the NL Central and the Diamondbacks are thought to be bad enough to finish in last in the NL West. The Cubs have had a very easy schedule so far.
The talent the Cubs have faced on the mound has been anything other than impressive. Shown below are the starters who have faced the Cubs this season and their CAIRO projected FIP for 2011.
| Starters | FIP |
| Kevin Correia | 4.53 |
| Paul Maholm | 4.14 |
| Ross Ohlendorf | 4.51 |
| Joe Saunders | 4.80 |
| Barry Enright | 5.05 |
| Randy Wolf | 4.42 |
| Chris Narveson | 4.62 |
| Yovani Gallardo | 3.37 |
| Nelson Figueroa | 4.31 |
| Brett Myers | 4.07 |
The Cubs have faced only one very good starting pitcher. Tonight’s starter for the Astros is the next best pitcher they’ve faced. Myers is good, but he’s more similar to Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster. Well above average, but not great by any means. Correia, Ohlendorf, Saunders, Enright, and Narveson are all below average. Wolf and Figueroa are league average.
Most of the games the Cubs have played have been against bad teams as you know. Bad teams are generally bad at pitching, defense, baserunning and hitting. The Cubs have been the benefit of some of that less than impressive starting pitching and despite that, they’ve managed to score just 44 runs nearly 11 games into the season.
It’s only going to get tougher from this point forward. As I mentioned, it’s just 11 games so if we knew nothing about the Cubs offense we couldn’t look at this sample and reach any conclusions. We do know something about this offense though. We know they are going to struggle against righties. We know they aren’t an especially good offense. We probably would expect even the Cubs offense to fare better against the quality of pitching they’ve faced so far, but they haven’t yet.
What makes these numbers even worse is that the Cubs have done a spectacular job at getting the leadoff man on base. Cubs batters leading off an inning have hit .382/.427/.607. The career batting line for Albert Pujols is .333/.425/.622. The Cubs have essentially led off every inning with the best player in all of baseball and they’ve averaged all of 4.1 runs per game (4.3 is the NL average).
The leadoff batter for the Cubs has hit .467/.538/.644. You may have heard of a guy who had a career 1.164 OPS. The Cubs leadoff batters have a higher OPS than the greatest player who ever played the game of baseball. They’ve still scored .35 runs below the league average. I’m pretty sure the leadoff batter won’t continue to get on base 54% of the time. I’m also certain the Cubs will not have the leadoff man get on base 43% of the time each inning.
Interestingly, the number 3 and number 5 batters have hit very well for the Cubs. Those are two spots you expect big numbers from. If I told you the Cubs were going to have Babe Ruth leading off each game while the number 3 batter hit .396/.420/.542 you’d think te Cubs were scoring a lot of runs. If I then told you the number 5 batter was hitting .286/.444/.543 you’d think the Cubs led the NL in runs scored.
Some of that is just bad luck. If the Cubs somehow managed to put up those numbers in those spots, they will lead the league in runs scored, but there’s absolutely no way they will hit that well in those spots. The Cubs leadoff batters aren’t Babe Ruth. They don’t have A-Rod hitting 3rd. They don’t have Mickey Mantle hitting 5th. This ain’t the dream team. This is a mediocre Chicago Cubs team that has actually hit the ball fairly well to start the season with nothing to show for it. The offense isn’t getting any better. It’s going to get worse because the Cubs don’t have 3 of the top 15 greatest hitters in the history of the game in the every day lineup.
So far this season the Cubs offense has faced bad starting pitching, hit the ball fairly well, ridiculously well out of three spots you need production from and they’ve scored .35 runs below the National League average. Baseball is such a funny game that things will actually get better in terms of runs scored, but as far as hitting goes, things will get worse. In the end expect to see this offense score about 4.1 runs per game or a bit less.
Comments
Wait, the #5 batter? Isn’t Pena’s BA way down (or else am I missing something, is Fonzie hitting 5th?).
MishQuote Reply
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=CHC&year=2011#lineu::none
mb21Quote Reply
False. Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, Marlon Byrd. Prove me wrong.
Aisle424Quote Reply
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=penaca01&year=2011&t=b#lineu::none
mb21Quote Reply
I forgot about Barney. I think this team scores 8 runs per game when it’s all done. How do they score fewer than that? Barney hasn’t even gotten hot yet.
mb21Quote Reply
You know what is going to be fun? The months of May and June. From May 2 to May 22 they have 19 straight games against above .500 teams (last year). Then from June 3 to June 22, they have 20 more straight. 39 out of 45 games in that stretch against good teams.
This is going to be a Jack Benny blog before the All-Star break.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Gotchya – too focused on player, not on lineup spot.
MishQuote Reply
Here are the projected winning percentages for those teams from May 2 to May 22:
.516
.516
.516
.528
.528
.528
.514
.514
.514
.543
.543
.543
.528
.528
.506
.506
.583
.583
.583
That’s an average of a .533 opponent, or a team slightly better than 86 wins. That’s a rough stretch. I think 424 is right. If it’s not ugly by then, it will be after May 22.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Yes the division sign through me off but I mentally just turned it into the slash. Makes me feel good, but I didn’t know mathemeticians would interpret it differently.[/quote]
Really it’s just that no-one would write it that way. The way things are typeset you would physically put the numerator over the denominator. The only times you see that kind of slash notation is if it’s something extremely short, like x/2.
BerseliusQuote Reply
If the Cubs wanted to be on pace to win 90 games, they’d have be 41-33 after June 22. Against the opponents they play, that’s going to be nearly impossible. This team had to get out to a very hot start and they didn’t.
mb21Quote Reply
(dying laughing)
This year so far reminds me a lot of last year, when a lot of things that needed to go right did go right, but the sum of it all was still pretty crappy.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Android app is ready now: https://market.android.com/details?id=com.noticesoftware.ObstructedView&feature=search_result
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting](dying laughing)
This year so far reminds me a lot of last year, when a lot of things that needed to go right did go right, but the sum of it all was still pretty crappy.[/quote]It’s hard to believe the Cubs have scored so many runs below average while having the leadoff hitter of each inning getting on base like they have. It’s almost impossible to not score more runs than they have if you’re that lucky.
mb21Quote Reply
Lots of players have higher OPS than Koyie Hill, MB.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Lots of players have higher OPS than Koyie Hill, MB.[/quote]That’s not true. Take it back.
mb21Quote Reply
For reference’s sake, the average runs an offense scored per game last year in the NL was 4.33. Oddly enough league average ERA was 4.02 (maybe interleague is skewing this). I’m too lazy to calculate the 2010 RA or the average FIP from those numbers MB posted above but it would be interesting to compare.
BerseliusQuote Reply
ERA divided by .92 to get RA. That’s a generic way of doing it. I get 4.36 that way. Maybe there were fewer unearned runs allowed last year.
If you wanted to calculate the 2010 expected run average, you’d also have to include the bullpen, right?
mb21Quote Reply
Maybe I’m not understanding what you’re saying at all.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Lots of players have higher OPS than Koyie Hill, MB.[/quote]
I’ll flag this one myself.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]You know what is going to be fun? The months of May and June. From May 2 to May 22 they have 19 straight games against above .500 teams (last year). Then from June 3 to June 22, they have 20 more straight. 39 out of 45 games in that stretch against good teams.
This is going to be a Jack Benny blog before the All-Star break.[/quote]
correct.
gaius mariusQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’ll flag this one myself.[/quote](dying laughing) why would he have to flag it? It’s his blog.
mb21Quote Reply
Should we start hyping it now?
mb21Quote Reply
The Orioles/Yankees battle for first in the AL East is going to be super exciting.
mb21Quote Reply
I’d like to slap Alvin and his editor with that book.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I’d like to slap Alvin and his editor with that book
So would you hit him with some type of book like object?
dylanjQuote Reply
Thankfully, Al’s book is not read by anyone with a brain.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]You know what is going to be fun? The months of May and June. From May 2 to May 22 they have 19 straight games against above .500 teams (last year). Then from June 3 to June 22, they have 20 more straight. 39 out of 45 games in that stretch against good teams.
This is going to be a Jack Benny blog before the All-Star break.[/quote]Well.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I’m glad Brad mentioned this here:
http://www.draysbay.com/2011/4/13/2107724/deep-thoughts-sam-fuld-edition
MishQuote Reply
They’re not stupid. They’re charming.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
And I wasn’t talking about “advanced-stats-nerds”.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I think Rays fans may be going a little nuts over Fuld’s offense right now. I think he can hit well enough to be a 4th outfielder, but anything other than that is a dream. If it were Cubs fans going nuts over Fuld right now we’d point out the flaws.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]They’re not stupid. They’re charming.[/quote]
Amusing, but wrong.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I think Rays fans may be going a little nuts over Fuld’s offense right now. I think he can hit well enough to be a 4th outfielder, but anything other than that is a dream. If it were Cubs fans going nuts over Fuld right now we’d point out the flaws.[/quote]
I think most of the people I’ve talked to are well aware that he’s a 4th OF at best playing well above his head (and getting playing time due to Manny’s retirement and waiting out Deezy’s service clock). I can see why the Rays stats crowd would like him though.
Of course, I am not privy to what Rays fans outside of the DRB/TPR group are saying. I’m sure they are salivating upon it. The article does mention what fan reaction will be when he comes down to earth and eventually winds up on the bench, to which brad says, “whatever.”
MishQuote Reply
So was the answer 288 or 2?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]So was the answer 288 or 2?[/quote]
Correct.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Correct.[/quote]
-48/2(9+3) faget points.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
http://www.cubsfx.com/2011/04/z-volution.html
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I think Rays fans may be going a little nuts over Fuld’s offense right now. I think he can hit well enough to be a 4th outfielder, but anything other than that is a dream. If it were Cubs fans going nuts over Fuld right now we’d
point out the flawsbe ripping the piss out of them while simultaneously hating our own sad lives.[/quote]Be honest now.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Calcaterra jokingly answering Qs on Twitter.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Should we start hyping it now?[/quote]
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I think most of the people I’ve talked to are well aware that he’s a 4th OF at best playing well above his head (and getting playing time due to Manny’s retirement and waiting out Deezy’s service clock). I can see why the Rays stats crowd would like him though.
Of course, I am not privy to what Rays fans outside of the DRB/TPR group are saying. I’m sure they are salivating upon it. The article does mention what fan reaction will be when he comes down to earth and eventually winds up on the bench, to which brad says, “whatever.”[/quote]
Fuld is becoming the new DeRosa in my Twitter stream.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Calcaterra jokingly answering Qs on Twitter.[/quote]
Not funny.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Fuld is becoming the new DeRosa in my Twitter stream.[/quote]
This too, will pass.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Not funny.[/quote]
Correct
MishQuote Reply
I read every word of the internet, guys. I just post anything Cub or ex-Cub related. I don’t have time to determine if it’s a quality post. (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/4/13/2108161/cubs-fail-in-all-areas-in-11-2-loss-to-astros#64054170
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/4/13/2108161/cubs-fail-in-all-areas-in-11-2-loss-to-astros#64054170[/quote]
Amusing, but wrong.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
I threw in a few posts at BCB – I wonder how long I can hit and run without getting banned?
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I threw in a few posts at BCB – I wonder how long I can hit and run without getting banned?[/quote]
The answer is 2 or 288.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
Wow that’s some argument you’re having with the not-an-ace guy.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/4/13/2108161/cubs-fail-in-all-areas-in-11-2-loss-to-astros#64054170[/quote]I’m going to go ahead and flag this. Ignorance kills, GBTS.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I threw in a few posts at BCB – I wonder how long I can hit and run without getting banned?[/quote]I really don’t understand how you can withhold the expletives necessary to adequately reply to Al in situations like that.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]I really don’t understand how you can withhold the expletives necessary to adequately reply to Al in situations like that.[/quote]
Neither do I. I have a pretty vulgar lexicon, but I think to get the most bang for the buck, I ought to keep it clean. The logic takedown works well enough without the invectives.
MishQuote Reply
Xoom’s got my back too.
MishQuote Reply
I can’t help it when I read something that stupid. He obviously looked at nothing before he posted that.
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
I commented at you when I meant to comment at someone above you, Xoom.
MishQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
(dying laughing) Mish have you never seen Rain Man or what?
GBTSQuote Reply
Is someone here behind this?
http://www.sbnation.com/users/Raymond%20Babbitt
(dying laughing)
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
.
MishQuote Reply
I was gonna ask ST if he was Raymond Babbit. I almost don’t want to respond cuz I think it’s one of you guys.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]She is also his mom[/quote]
Amusing, but wrong.
GWQuote Reply
Clearly it’s GBTS.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Someone needs to sign up as Charlie Babbit at BCB and handle Raymond.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
http://fuckyeahnouns.com/inverted%20w
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I think Rays fans may be going a little nuts over Fuld’s offense right now. I think he can hit well enough to be a 4th outfielder, but anything other than that is a dream. If it were Cubs fans going nuts over Fuld right now we’d point out the flaws.[/quote]
I agree. Although just about everything that Friedman has touched has turned to gold in recent memory; so it’s hard to blame them. It’s like they are the alternate reality to the Cubs.
When I read D-Rays Bay, I want to make fun of them for being sycophants and homers, but it’s hard to find much fault with Rays management.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
DIPS theory in action:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/13/what-happens-when-francisco-liriano-pitches-to-contact/
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/4/13/2108161/cubs-fail-in-all-areas-in-11-2-loss-to-astros#64054170[/quote]
I’ve been reading that thread (dying laughing)
I know Mish and Babbit are from here. But is that TJ11 fellow from here too. He has got to just be messing with everyone over there (dying laughing)
LukasQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Clearly it’s GBTS.[/quote]
GBTS is Sam Fuld’s mom?
Aisle424Quote Reply
Raymond is whoever asked me to repost the Rain Man gif the other day.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]GBTS is Sam Fuld’s mom?[/quote]
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Lukas]I’ve been reading that thread (dying laughing)
I know Mish and Babbit are from here. But is that TJ11 fellow from here too. He has got to just be messing with everyone over there (dying laughing)[/quote]
It’s a OVBers getting trolled by OVBers at BCB. WTF (dying laughing)
cdwQuote Reply
[quote name=cdw]It’s a OVBers getting trolled by OVBers at BCB. WTF (dying laughing)[/quote]
…let’s see what happens
MishQuote Reply
I think I’ve seen TJ11 there before, so he might be a BCBer in earnest.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]…let’s see what happens[/quote]
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
I’m enjoying the show that’s for sure.
LukasQuote Reply
I’ll also assume that no posts from Al in response to my factual posts while he keeps replying to other post means I win? Which, in actuality, means I lose…
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I’ll also assume that no posts from Al in response to my factual posts while he keeps replying to other post means I win? Which, in actuality, means I lose…[/quote]
He doesn’t have time to type that he doesn’t have time to argue with you today.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I’ll also assume that no posts from Al in response to my factual posts while he keeps replying to other post means I win? Which, in actuality, means I lose…[/quote]
That’s the unfortunate reality of the situation. Alvin just doesn’t have the time to respond to such blasphemy. (dying laughing)
LukasQuote Reply
[quote name=Lukas]That’s the unfortunate irony of the situation. Alvin just doesn’t have the time to respond to such blasphemy in 2010 like it was 1996. (dying laughing)[/quote]
.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Lukas](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
I’m enjoying the show that’s for sure.[/quote]
Of course, 3 minutes to Wapner.
RayQuote Reply
[quote name=Ray]Of course, 3 minutes to Wapner.[/quote]
Uh oh Fart.
Did you fucking fart Raymond?
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
LukasQuote Reply
[quote name=Lukas]Uh oh Fart.
Did you fucking fart Raymond?
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)[/quote]Kenyon Martin sucks.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Lukas]Uh oh Fart.
Did you fucking fart Raymond?
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)[/quote]
I don’t mind.
RayQuote Reply
You can’t have an ace without the playoffs
(dying laughing)
jtsunamiQuote Reply
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/4/13/2108844/josh-hamilton-heading-for-all-injury-team?login=1302726587#64062988
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
So…penultimate warning?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I have no idea what you guys are talking about.
GBTSQuote Reply
Other teams’ fans, you’re doing it wrong.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]I have no idea what you guys are talking about.[/quote]
400 Oak St.
RayQuote Reply
I figure it is never too early to start hyping our rebranding.
Aisle424Quote Reply
.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=Ray]400 Oak St.[/quote]I’ve got news for you Ray. K-Mart sucks.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan].[/quote]Watch your attitude. Final warning for you.
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]Watch your attitude. Final warning for you.[/quote]
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
AndCountingQuote Reply
Anyone here taken the GRE?
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
(dying laughing) @ the BCB stuff and the Jack Benny Blog pictures. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Anyone here taken the GRE?[/quote]
Many many moons ago…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Many many moons ago…[/quote]
I’m considering taking it, but slightly terrified at the thought (and expense) of it.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]I’m considering taking it, but slightly terrified at the thought (and expense) of it.[/quote]
What’s your PhD prospectively going to be in?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]What’s your PhD prospectively going to be in?[/quote]
May not go all the way to PhD, but I’d like to at least accomplish some graduate study. The area would be in Environmental Public Policy / Natural Resource Planning. Something along those lines.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
Barry Bonds ———> convicted of obstruction of justice, jury deadlocked on other 3 charges
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/13/breaking-barry-bonds-guilty-of-obstruction-of-justice-but-not-perjury-which-makes-no-sense-at-all/
Like Calcaterra said, how do you find him guilty of obstruction of justice and not the other 3? That’s like being convicted of lying, but not telling lies. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]May not go all the way to PhD, but I’d like to at least accomplish some graduate study. The area would be in Environmental Public Policy / Natural Resource Planning. Something along those lines.[/quote]
Ah. The GRE is basically like a modified SAT. It wasn’t that big of a deal when I took it (I took the computerized test) but I think they’ve added a writing section since I last paid attention. Maybe one of the more recent grad school folk can help you out.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Barry Bonds ———> convicted of obstruction of justice, jury deadlocked on other 3 charges
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/13/breaking-barry-bonds-guilty-of-obstruction-of-justice-but-not-perjury-which-makes-no-sense-at-all/
Like Calcaterra said, how do you find him guilty of obstruction of justice and not the other 3? That’s like being convicted of lying, but not telling lies. (dying laughing)[/quote]
I think they wanted to just convict him of something, so that’s the best they could do given the circumstances.
Such a waste of resources though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ah. The GRE is basically like a modified SAT. It wasn’t that big of a deal when I took it (I took the computerized test) but I think they’ve added a writing section since I last paid attention. Maybe one of the more recent grad school folk can help you out.[/quote]
Thanks for the information. I’ll keep asking around. I take it you have a PhD then?
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Barry Bonds ———> convicted of obstruction of justice, jury deadlocked on other 3 charges
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/13/breaking-barry-bonds-guilty-of-obstruction-of-justice-but-not-perjury-which-makes-no-sense-at-all/
Like Calcaterra said, how do you find him guilty of obstruction of justice and not the other 3? That’s like being convicted of lying, but not telling lies. (dying laughing)[/quote]
Perjury has as an essential element that you make a “false material declaration.”
Obstruction of justice only requires that “the defendant must have intentionally endeavored corruptly to
influence, obstruct or impede the pending proceeding.”
In short if they believed that Bonds tried to impede the grand jury investigation, but didn’t make a “materially false statement” they can still convict.
Obstruction of justice is a much easier charge to prove than perjury. Actually, it is basically the easiest charge for a federal prosecutor to prove and is brought in almost all white collar cases.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Thanks for the information. I’ll keep asking around. I take it you have a PhD then?[/quote]
Maybe one day I will have the PhD…sigh.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Hector Villanueva ]Perjury has as an essential element that you make a “false material declaration.”
Obstruction of justice only requires that “the defendant must have intentionally endeavored corruptly to
influence, obstruct or impede the pending proceeding.”
In short if they believed that Bonds tried to impede the grand jury investigation, but didn’t make a “materially false statement” they can still convict.
Obstruction of justice is a much easier charge to prove than perjury. Actually, it is basically the easiest charge for a federal prosecutor to prove and is brought in almost all white collar cases.[/quote]
How much jail time does it carry?
Does he go to resort prison or federal pound-me-in-the-ass prison?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]How much jail time does it carry?
Does he go to resort prison or federal pound-me-in-the-ass prison?[/quote]
Up to 5 years, but basically completely up to the discretion of the judge.
I’d have to look at the sentencing guidelines to estimate what he serves.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
You didn’t label Jack Benny in that thing.
I’m not sure who AC is supposed to be, but I see that Aisle424 took the best one for himself.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Thank, HV. All the others convicted of that in the BALCO case have gotten light sentences. I think only Jones served time in prison.
mb21Quote Reply
Ok, starting point (base offense level of 14 points) for Obstruction of Justice w/ no prior criminal history is 15-21 months. I would have to look much more closely at the case to come up with additional adjustments to that.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]You didn’t label Jack Benny in that thing.
I’m not sure who AC is supposed to be, but I see that Aisle424 took the best one for himself.[/quote]You’re Jack Benny.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Hector Villanueva ]Up to 5 years, but basically completely up to the discretion of the judge.
I’d have to look at the sentencing guidelines to estimate what he serves.[/quote]
I think I read that similar BALCO folks convicted of the same charge were given parole, light sentences, or home confinement.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I think I read that similar BALCO folks convicted of the same charge were given parole, light sentences, or home confinement.[/quote]
I bet that varied a lot based on the level of cooperation with the government. That’s a huge deal in terms of sentencing.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
More from Calcaterra (same link as above):
That’s fucked up. This is what they found Bonds guilty of obstruction for
Unbelievable.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]You didn’t label Jack Benny in that thing.
I’m not sure who AC is supposed to be, but I see that Aisle424 took the best one for himself.[/quote]
We’ll all be discussing Jack Benny. So he’s himself. I actually was Bob Hope to start off and B was Johnny, but Aisle 424 fit in that little nook better.
AC is Steve Allen and MB is George Burns.
Aisle424Quote Reply
In his career, Barry Bonds walked 2558 times.
If he avoids jail time, does this mean it’s walk #2559?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I think I read that similar BALCO folks convicted of the same charge were given parole, light sentences, or home confinement.[/quote]Jones served some time in prison, didn’t she?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I think I read that similar BALCO folks convicted of the same charge were given parole, light sentences, or home confinement.[/quote]In addition to the shame in disappointing the BBWAA.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Anyone here taken the GRE?[/quote]
I took it in December of 09. I also advise people on this crap every day so…
It is like a more difficult SAT. There is now a writing section that most graduate schools don’t care about unless you do very poorly. http://www.ets.org/gre/ offers free practice tests, so it is usually good to take one, even just to figure out how the format works. It is worth it to spend $20 on a study book so you don’t have to take it twice. Most libraries also have one so you might be able to get it for free, but sometimes it may be a little out of date. I like Princeton Review and Barron’s, but there are other good ones.
Other than that, just take it seriously and spend a little time studying vocab and formulas and you should do fine.
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Jones served some time in prison, didn’t she?[/quote]
Possibly. I’m not sure if it was a tweet or what, but I saw those sentences referenced. It also said that it was for other people with clean prior records. Maybe Jones had something else prior?
but I think Hector is probably right in that cooperation plays a big factor with the judge. But so does precedent, so I’m not expecting anything close to a maximum sentence.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I’m expecting 12 to 18 months in prison and he’ll get out earlier than that.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]More from Calcaterra (same link as above):
Unbelievable.[/quote]
That’s not too surprising. I think the obstruction of justice law gives federal prosecutors way too much discretion with obstruction of justice charges.
Basically almost anything you say to prosecutors can form the basis of a charge. Usually an obstruction of justice charge is just used to get some sort of a plea bargain.
It wouldn’t shock me if this conviction is reversed by the 9th Circuit. Bonds’ certainly has the legal firepower to pursue that.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
I don’t know much about the law, but it seems to me this is likely to get overturned as well.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Possibly. I’m not sure if it was a tweet or what, but I saw those sentences referenced. It also said that it was for other people with clean prior records. Maybe Jones had something else prior?
but I think Hector is probably right in that cooperation plays a big factor with the judge. But so does precedent, so I’m not expecting anything close to a maximum sentence.[/quote]
No chance he gets more than the 18-21 months that are the base level. I would assume that his lawyers could come up with enough factors to get the Guideline range reduced to below 12 months.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
I’m all for due process and the appeals system and all that, but Barry Bonds should be executed at midnight.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]You’re Jack Benny.[/quote]
Suburban kidQuote Reply
i just saw 424’s #notintendedtobeafactualstaement
good stuff
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]You’re Jack Benny.[/quote]I prefer Benny Hill
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
All of my knowledge of Jack Benny pretty much started with this cartoon:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wh7LlYonA8g
Aisle424Quote Reply
New frivolity: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/cubs-player-power-rankings.html
AndCountingQuote Reply