We learned awhile back that the Cubs would listen to offers on any of their players so I had really wanted to avoid writing about specific players until a credible rumor surfaced. However, Matt Garza is one of the most valuable players the Cubs have and I read elsewhere a few days ago that the Cubs are talking to other teams about him. It’s important to remember that while Garza may be the best starting pitcher the Cubs have, he’s likely not going to be the best a contending team has. Garza seems so valuable to us Cubs fans in part because he’s so damn good compared to the other starting pitchers on the staff. He did have a great 2011 and hopefully the Cubs made enough changes with him that we could expect similar production next year.
We can’t do that yet though. We have several years prior to 2011 in which Garza was good, but far from great. In order to get an idea of his value we need to look at the projections that include previous years. The average of Garza’s available projections (Bill James, CAIRO, ZiPS) is a 3.71 FIP. That’s about .4 runs worse than CC Sabathia‘s CAIRO and more than a half run worse than Justin Verlander‘s. Over 200 innings for Garza and using a 4.25 league average FIP, he would be worth 3.8 WAR next season.
He has one year left on his contract and the win value can be epected to be about $4.8 million next year. In dollars, Garza is worth $18.2 million. We’ve already estimated that Garza would be paid about $8.7 million in his last year of arbitration. That leaves a $9.5 million surplus. It’s distinctly possible with a season like this that Garza would be worth two draft picks in 2013 so that’s worth about $5 million. His overall surplus trade value is $14.5 million.
Based on this work, Garza would be worth a top 51-75 hitting prospect or just slightly less than a top 26-50 pitching prospect. Prior to 2011, Yonder Alonso was the 73rd ranked prospect in baseball. Intradivision trades are rare, but the Cubs could use a first baseman with 5 years of club control who is as good as Alonso.
Aside from Johnny Cueto the Reds rotation was terrible last year. They were even worse than the Cubs. The Reds alreay have Joey Votto who isn’t going anywhere. It would seem to me if they could acquire a guy like Garza who would at least be their second best starter then it would be a big improvement for them.
Comments
I like Sam LeCure
GWQuote Reply
Ryno had a good thanksgiving.
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/this-just-in/21157451/report-jays-wanted-buchholz-farrell
(dying laughing)
GWQuote Reply
It’s odd that a team like the Red Sox is still searching for a manager at the end of November.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]It’s LITERALLY Black Friday!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-6XBbqoGRk
Enjoy.[/quote]
This is the worst thing to every happen on this blog.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It’s odd that a team like the Red Sox is still searching for a manager at the end of November.[/quote]
I heard they are on the five yard line.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]I heard they are on the five yard line.[/quote]I’m beginning to think it’s their own five yard line. Safety wins the game.
mb21Quote Reply
So I’ve been out of the loop for a while, was there ever a consensus on whether the new CBA helps or hurts the Cubs?
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]So I’ve been in a coma for a while, was there ever a consensus on whether the new CBA helps or hurts the Cubs?[/quote].
GBT.SQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
I don’t think there’s been a consensus. In the short-term it probably makes it more difficult for the Cubs to rebuild their farm system. In the long run it makes it more difficult for small market teams to contend without spending big money on free agents. The Cubs would have been better off being able to spend freely in the draft and international free agency as it would greatly increase the chances of them more quickly rebuilding their farm system.
I’d say that in the next few years it hurts the Cubs, but after that it’s an advantage as it makes it small market teams more unlikely to find themselves in contention.
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2011/11/epstein-mcleod-finally-get-their-man-in-zeke-devoss/
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It’s odd that a team like the Red Sox is still searching for a manager at the end of November.[/quote]
Even odder that their two final candidates appear to be Bobby Valentine and Gene Lamont.
Never seen an organization get so stupid so fast. It’s like the last act of Flowers for Algernon over there.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
If the Red Sox weren’t so talented it would be like the Red Sox replaced the Cubs. It’s fucking bizarre.
mb21Quote Reply
WOOO PIG SOOOOOIE!
UrkQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If the Red Sox weren’t so talented it would be like the Red Sox replaced the Cubs. It’s fucking bizarre.[/quote]It’s like that episode of Star Trek where Kirk switched bodies with that psycho hosebeast.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Urk]WOOO PIG SOOOOOIE![/quote]
crazy game so far already. really enjoyable.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]It’s like that episode of Star Trek where Kirk switched bodies with that psycho hosebeast.[/quote]You would.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]crazy game so far already. really enjoyable.[/quote]
Yeah, i hope the hogs can keep it together and come back. I’d really like to see them win this game.
UrkQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]You would.[/quote]It’s nice to know that GBTS thinks I’m as awesome as Captain Kirk.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]It’s nice to know that GBTS thinks I’m as awesome as Captain Kirk.[/quote]Do not presume to know what GBTS thinks.
Not GBTSQuote Reply
MB, I just watched last week’s Homeland. I’m willing to give it a little more time before I dismiss it as 24 2.0.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]MB, I just watched last week’s Homeland. I’m willing to give it a little more time before I dismiss it as 24 2.0.[/quote]You’re more forgiving than I am.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Urk]Yeah, i hope the hogs can keep it together and come back. I’d really like to see them win this game.[/quote]It was not meant to be.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Fun blog from Joe Poz:
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/11/baseball-vintages_25.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing) x 2 or 288:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’ll go with 288. That was awesome.
mb21Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/some-thoughts-on-the-new-cba.html
mb21Quote Reply