The other day GW wrote an article after Edwin Jackson signed with the Cubs. I was curious why he thought 2012 was a down season and I should have known. GW only looks at strikeouts and walks (and groundball rate). The reason for this is simple: Strikeouts and walks have proven to be very accurate predictors of future ERA.
FIP includes both of those stats, as well as home runs, which is in large part due to home run per fly ball luck. This got me thinking that we needed a way to display strikeouts and walks on an ERA scale because, well, that's what baseball fans are familiar with.
Then I remembered some work on Tango's blog that did just that, but I was unable to find it. The very next day, Glenn DuPaul wrote about the metric I was trying to think of on Beyond the Boxscore.
kwERA
It only includes the two metrics mentioned above. The formula is simple: 5.40 – (12*((K-BB)/PA))).
For BB I used the same thing as I do for FIP: BB-IBB+HBP and I subtracted IBB from PA. Below are the best Cubs kwERA seasons since 2000 (40 or more innings).
| Name | Season | G | GS | IP | RA9 | ERA | FIP | kwERA |
| Tom Gordon | 2001 | 47 | 0 | 45.3 | 3.57 | 3.38 | 2.37 | 2.11 |
| Carlos Marmol | 2010 | 77 | 0 | 77.7 | 2.67 | 2.55 | 2.01 | 2.40 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 2001 | 76 | 0 | 82.0 | 2.85 | 2.74 | 2.81 | 2.59 |
| Kerry Wood | 2008 | 65 | 0 | 66.3 | 3.26 | 3.26 | 2.32 | 2.62 |
| Sean Marshall | 2010 | 80 | 0 | 74.7 | 3.01 | 2.65 | 2.28 | 2.70 |
| Mark Prior | 2003 | 30 | 30 | 211.3 | 2.85 | 2.43 | 2.47 | 2.75 |
| Carlos Marmol | 2007 | 59 | 0 | 69.3 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 2.72 | 2.85 |
| Sean Marshall | 2011 | 78 | 0 | 75.7 | 2.50 | 2.26 | 1.86 | 2.87 |
| Mark Prior | 2002 | 19 | 19 | 116.7 | 3.47 | 3.32 | 3.16 | 2.88 |
| Rich Harden | 2008 | 12 | 12 | 71.0 | 2.15 | 1.77 | 3.08 | 2.94 |
| Carlos Marmol | 2008 | 82 | 0 | 87.3 | 3.09 | 2.68 | 3.62 | 2.97 |
| Jeff Fassero | 2001 | 82 | 0 | 73.7 | 3.79 | 3.42 | 2.94 | 3.02 |
| Joe Borowski | 2002 | 73 | 0 | 95.7 | 2.92 | 2.73 | 3.23 | 3.12 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 2003 | 77 | 0 | 76.3 | 3.66 | 3.30 | 3.06 | 3.20 |
| Mark Prior | 2005 | 27 | 27 | 166.7 | 3.94 | 3.67 | 3.85 | 3.22 |
| Michael Wuertz | 2005 | 75 | 0 | 75.7 | 4.28 | 3.81 | 3.28 | 3.25 |
| Kerry Wood | 2005 | 21 | 10 | 66.0 | 4.36 | 4.23 | 4.72 | 3.25 |
| Scott Eyre | 2006 | 74 | 0 | 61.3 | 3.67 | 3.38 | 4.57 | 3.25 |
| Bob Howry | 2006 | 84 | 0 | 76.7 | 3.29 | 3.17 | 3.43 | 3.27 |
| Mark Prior | 2004 | 21 | 21 | 118.7 | 4.02 | 4.02 | 3.53 | 3.27 |
| LaTroy Hawkins | 2004 | 77 | 0 | 82.0 | 2.96 | 2.63 | 3.54 | 3.28 |
| Todd Van Poppel | 2001 | 59 | 0 | 75.0 | 2.64 | 2.52 | 3.73 | 3.30 |
| Rich Harden | 2009 | 26 | 26 | 141.0 | 4.72 | 4.09 | 4.35 | 3.35 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 2012 | 28 | 28 | 174.7 | 4.07 | 3.81 | 3.55 | 3.37 |
| Joe Borowski | 2003 | 68 | 0 | 68.3 | 3.03 | 2.63 | 2.93 | 3.38 |
| Kerry Wood | 2003 | 32 | 32 | 211.0 | 3.28 | 3.20 | 3.71 | 3.41 |
| Michael Wuertz | 2007 | 73 | 0 | 72.3 | 3.73 | 3.48 | 3.94 | 3.44 |
| Ted Lilly | 2009 | 27 | 27 | 177.0 | 3.36 | 3.10 | 3.65 | 3.44 |
| Matt Garza | 2011 | 31 | 31 | 198.0 | 4.09 | 3.32 | 2.95 | 3.44 |
| Bob Howry | 2007 | 78 | 0 | 81.3 | 3.43 | 3.32 | 3.52 | 3.45 |
| Bob Howry | 2008 | 72 | 0 | 70.7 | 5.60 | 5.35 | 4.49 | 3.48 |
| Kerry Wood | 2001 | 28 | 28 | 174.3 | 3.61 | 3.36 | 3.51 | 3.48 |
| Michael Wuertz | 2006 | 41 | 0 | 40.7 | 3.10 | 2.66 | 3.93 | 3.53 |
| Mike Remlinger | 2003 | 73 | 0 | 69.0 | 3.91 | 3.65 | 4.48 | 3.54 |
| Matt Clement | 2002 | 32 | 32 | 205.0 | 3.69 | 3.60 | 3.34 | 3.55 |
| Kevin Tapani | 2001 | 29 | 29 | 168.3 | 4.97 | 4.49 | 3.97 | 3.61 |
| Kerry Wood | 2011 | 55 | 0 | 51.0 | 4.06 | 3.35 | 3.59 | 3.62 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 2004 | 72 | 0 | 66.7 | 5.26 | 4.73 | 4.23 | 3.62 |
| Matt Garza | 2012 | 18 | 18 | 103.7 | 4.17 | 3.91 | 4.17 | 3.70 |
| Roberto Novoa | 2005 | 49 | 0 | 44.7 | 4.43 | 4.43 | 3.76 | 3.71 |
| Ted Lilly | 2007 | 34 | 34 | 207.0 | 3.96 | 3.83 | 4.16 | 3.72 |
| Kerry Wood | 2004 | 22 | 22 | 140.3 | 3.98 | 3.72 | 3.80 | 3.75 |
| Rich Hill | 2007 | 32 | 32 | 195.0 | 4.11 | 3.92 | 4.32 | 3.75 |
| Matt Clement | 2004 | 30 | 30 | 181.0 | 3.93 | 3.68 | 4.08 | 3.77 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 2002 | 45 | 0 | 46.7 | 9.06 | 7.33 | 5.11 | 3.77 |
| Carlos Marmol | 2011 | 75 | 0 | 74.0 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 3.54 | 3.78 |
| Kevin Gregg | 2009 | 72 | 0 | 68.7 | 4.98 | 4.72 | 4.93 | 3.78 |
| Tim Worrell | 2000 | 54 | 0 | 62.0 | 2.90 | 2.47 | 4.13 | 3.78 |
| Ted Lilly | 2008 | 34 | 34 | 204.7 | 4.22 | 4.09 | 4.41 | 3.79 |
| James Russell | 2012 | 77 | 0 | 69.3 | 3.63 | 3.25 | 3.48 | 3.80 |
| Ryan Dempster | 2012 | 16 | 16 | 104.0 | 2.42 | 2.25 | 3.43 | 3.82 |
| Courtney Duncan | 2001 | 36 | 0 | 42.7 | 5.06 | 5.06 | 4.17 | 3.82 |
| Jon Lieber | 2002 | 21 | 21 | 141.0 | 4.09 | 3.70 | 3.39 | 3.83 |
| Jason Bere | 2001 | 32 | 32 | 188.0 | 4.74 | 4.31 | 4.09 | 3.83 |
| Will Ohman | 2006 | 78 | 0 | 65.3 | 4.13 | 4.13 | 3.87 | 3.84 |
| Greg Maddux | 2004 | 33 | 33 | 212.7 | 4.36 | 4.02 | 4.36 | 3.84 |
| Ted Lilly | 2010 | 18 | 18 | 117.0 | 4.08 | 3.69 | 4.46 | 3.87 |
| Sean Marshall | 2008 | 34 | 7 | 65.3 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 4.39 | 3.87 |
| Ryan Dempster | 2010 | 34 | 34 | 215.3 | 4.60 | 3.85 | 3.99 | 3.88 |
| Jon Lieber | 2000 | 35 | 35 | 251.0 | 4.66 | 4.41 | 4.23 | 3.89 |
| Ryan Dempster | 2009 | 31 | 31 | 200.0 | 4.23 | 3.65 | 3.87 | 3.90 |
| James Russell | 2010 | 57 | 0 | 49.0 | 6.80 | 4.96 | 5.20 | 3.92 |
| Ryan Dempster | 2008 | 33 | 33 | 206.7 | 3.27 | 2.96 | 3.41 | 3.93 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 2005 | 33 | 33 | 223.3 | 3.55 | 3.26 | 3.70 | 3.93 |
| Kerry Wood | 2002 | 33 | 33 | 213.7 | 3.88 | 3.66 | 3.86 | 3.93 |
| Steve Rain | 2000 | 37 | 0 | 49.7 | 4.53 | 4.35 | 5.27 | 3.94 |
| Ryan Dempster | 2011 | 34 | 34 | 202.3 | 4.94 | 4.80 | 3.91 | 3.95 |
| Rich Hill | 2006 | 17 | 16 | 99.3 | 4.62 | 4.17 | 4.67 | 3.96 |
| Kevin Tapani | 2000 | 30 | 30 | 195.7 | 5.20 | 5.01 | 4.77 | 4.01 |
| Jon Lieber | 2008 | 26 | 1 | 46.7 | 4.63 | 4.05 | 5.27 | 4.02 |
| Shawn Camp | 2012 | 80 | 0 | 77.7 | 3.71 | 3.59 | 3.69 | 4.03 |
| Jon Leicester | 2004 | 32 | 0 | 41.7 | 4.32 | 3.89 | 4.63 | 4.03 |
| Will Ohman | 2005 | 69 | 0 | 43.3 | 2.91 | 2.91 | 4.61 | 4.03 |
| Juan Cruz | 2001 | 8 | 8 | 44.7 | 3.22 | 3.22 | 3.74 | 4.03 |
| Angel Guzman | 2009 | 55 | 0 | 61.0 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 4.44 | 4.06 |
| Aaron Heilman | 2009 | 70 | 0 | 72.3 | 4.23 | 4.11 | 4.37 | 4.08 |
| Ryan Dempster | 2005 | 63 | 6 | 92.0 | 3.42 | 3.13 | 3.38 | 4.09 |
| Jon Lieber | 2001 | 34 | 34 | 232.3 | 4.03 | 3.80 | 3.79 | 4.09 |
| James Russell | 2011 | 64 | 5 | 67.7 | 4.92 | 4.12 | 4.77 | 4.11 |
| Greg Maddux | 2006 | 22 | 22 | 136.3 | 5.15 | 4.69 | 3.80 | 4.11 |
| Carlos Silva | 2010 | 21 | 21 | 113.0 | 4.38 | 4.22 | 3.75 | 4.12 |
| Sean Marshall | 2009 | 55 | 9 | 85.3 | 4.54 | 4.32 | 4.19 | 4.13 |
| Juan Cruz | 2003 | 25 | 6 | 61.0 | 6.49 | 6.05 | 4.11 | 4.13 |
| Greg Maddux | 2005 | 35 | 35 | 225.0 | 4.48 | 4.24 | 4.06 | 4.15 |
| Kent Mercker | 2004 | 71 | 0 | 53.0 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 3.80 | 4.15 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 2004 | 31 | 31 | 209.7 | 3.13 | 2.75 | 3.57 | 4.16 |
| Jeff Fassero | 2002 | 57 | 0 | 51.0 | 6.53 | 6.18 | 3.98 | 4.17 |
| Carlos Marmol | 2012 | 61 | 0 | 55.3 | 3.90 | 3.42 | 3.98 | 4.19 |
| Ryan Dempster | 2007 | 66 | 0 | 66.7 | 4.86 | 4.72 | 4.54 | 4.19 |
| Glendon Rusch | 2005 | 46 | 19 | 145.3 | 4.89 | 4.52 | 3.86 | 4.19 |
| Glendon Rusch | 2004 | 32 | 16 | 129.7 | 3.75 | 3.47 | 3.52 | 4.21 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 2006 | 33 | 33 | 214.0 | 3.83 | 3.41 | 4.14 | 4.22 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 2009 | 28 | 28 | 169.3 | 4.15 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 4.23 |
| Randy Wells | 2010 | 32 | 32 | 194.3 | 4.49 | 4.26 | 3.93 | 4.25 |
| Matt Clement | 2003 | 32 | 32 | 201.7 | 4.46 | 4.11 | 4.14 | 4.27 |
| Sean Gallagher | 2008 | 12 | 10 | 58.7 | 4.76 | 4.45 | 4.12 | 4.27 |
| Travis Wood | 2012 | 26 | 26 | 156.0 | 4.62 | 4.27 | 4.84 | 4.29 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 2011 | 75 | 0 | 88.0 | 3.58 | 2.97 | 3.66 | 4.29 |
| Jason Bere | 2002 | 16 | 16 | 85.7 | 6.62 | 5.67 | 4.50 | 4.29 |
| Ryan Dempster | 2006 | 74 | 0 | 75.0 | 5.64 | 4.80 | 3.79 | 4.30 |
| David Aardsma | 2006 | 45 | 0 | 53.0 | 4.25 | 4.08 | 5.15 | 4.33 |
| Tom Gorzelanny | 2010 | 29 | 23 | 136.3 | 4.62 | 4.09 | 3.92 | 4.34 |
| Glendon Rusch | 2006 | 25 | 9 | 66.3 | 7.73 | 7.46 | 7.02 | 4.35 |
| Rick Aguilera | 2000 | 54 | 0 | 47.7 | 5.29 | 4.91 | 5.92 | 4.36 |
| Andrew Cashner | 2010 | 53 | 0 | 54.3 | 5.14 | 4.80 | 5.03 | 4.36 |
| Felix Heredia | 2000 | 74 | 0 | 58.7 | 4.76 | 4.76 | 4.48 | 4.38 |
| Antonio Alfonseca | 2003 | 60 | 0 | 66.3 | 5.83 | 5.83 | 4.18 | 4.38 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 2003 | 32 | 32 | 214.0 | 3.70 | 3.11 | 3.47 | 4.38 |
| Randy Wells | 2009 | 27 | 27 | 165.3 | 3.65 | 3.05 | 3.88 | 4.43 |
| Paul Maholm | 2012 | 21 | 20 | 120.3 | 3.81 | 3.74 | 4.14 | 4.47 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 2000 | 46 | 5 | 77.0 | 6.78 | 6.43 | 5.68 | 4.47 |
| Todd Van Poppel | 2000 | 51 | 2 | 86.3 | 3.96 | 3.75 | 4.59 | 4.47 |
| Sean Marshall | 2007 | 21 | 19 | 103.3 | 4.53 | 3.92 | 4.62 | 4.48 |
| Antonio Alfonseca | 2002 | 66 | 0 | 74.3 | 4.12 | 4.00 | 3.77 | 4.48 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 2010 | 36 | 20 | 129.7 | 3.82 | 3.33 | 3.71 | 4.52 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 2007 | 34 | 34 | 216.3 | 4.16 | 3.95 | 4.58 | 4.54 |
| Justin Germano | 2012 | 13 | 12 | 64.0 | 7.31 | 6.75 | 4.33 | 4.54 |
| Casey Coleman | 2011 | 19 | 17 | 84.3 | 6.62 | 6.40 | 4.57 | 4.55 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 2011 | 24 | 24 | 145.7 | 4.94 | 4.82 | 4.59 | 4.56 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 2008 | 30 | 30 | 188.7 | 4.05 | 3.91 | 4.23 | 4.60 |
| Angel Guzman | 2006 | 15 | 10 | 56.0 | 7.71 | 7.39 | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| Michael Wuertz | 2008 | 45 | 0 | 44.7 | 4.63 | 3.63 | 4.30 | 4.63 |
| Randy Wells | 2011 | 23 | 23 | 135.3 | 5.05 | 4.99 | 5.11 | 4.63 |
| Ismael Valdez | 2000 | 12 | 12 | 67.0 | 5.37 | 5.37 | 6.39 | 4.65 |
| Roberto Novoa | 2006 | 66 | 0 | 76.0 | 5.57 | 4.26 | 5.82 | 4.67 |
| Kerry Wood | 2000 | 23 | 23 | 137.0 | 5.06 | 4.80 | 4.92 | 4.68 |
| Scott Eyre | 2007 | 55 | 0 | 52.3 | 4.47 | 4.13 | 4.33 | 4.69 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 2002 | 32 | 16 | 108.3 | 4.40 | 3.66 | 4.18 | 4.69 |
| Sergio Mitre | 2004 | 12 | 9 | 51.7 | 6.62 | 6.62 | 4.52 | 4.71 |
| Carlos Marmol | 2009 | 79 | 0 | 74.0 | 3.53 | 3.41 | 4.06 | 4.71 |
| Rodrigo Lopez | 2011 | 26 | 16 | 97.7 | 5.16 | 4.42 | 5.36 | 4.75 |
| Scott Downs | 2000 | 18 | 18 | 94.0 | 5.65 | 5.17 | 4.93 | 4.78 |
| Manuel Corpas | 2012 | 48 | 0 | 46.7 | 5.21 | 5.01 | 5.19 | 4.81 |
| Sergio Mitre | 2005 | 21 | 7 | 60.3 | 5.52 | 5.37 | 5.46 | 4.81 |
| Juan Mateo | 2006 | 11 | 10 | 45.7 | 6.11 | 5.32 | 5.03 | 4.83 |
| John Grabow | 2011 | 58 | 0 | 62.3 | 5.63 | 4.76 | 5.08 | 4.84 |
| Julian Tavarez | 2001 | 34 | 28 | 161.3 | 5.47 | 4.52 | 4.26 | 4.87 |
| Juan Cruz | 2002 | 45 | 9 | 97.3 | 5.18 | 3.98 | 4.83 | 4.89 |
| Doug Davis | 2011 | 9 | 9 | 45.7 | 7.49 | 6.50 | 3.86 | 4.92 |
| Chris Volstad | 2012 | 21 | 21 | 111.3 | 6.55 | 6.31 | 5.11 | 4.95 |
| Jason Marquis | 2007 | 34 | 33 | 191.7 | 5.21 | 4.60 | 4.99 | 5.03 |
| Ruben Quevedo | 2000 | 21 | 15 | 88.0 | 8.28 | 7.47 | 6.70 | 5.05 |
| Shawn Estes | 2003 | 29 | 28 | 152.3 | 6.68 | 5.73 | 5.04 | 5.06 |
| Jason Marquis | 2008 | 29 | 28 | 167.0 | 4.69 | 4.53 | 4.61 | 5.09 |
| Sean Marshall | 2006 | 24 | 24 | 125.7 | 6.09 | 5.59 | 5.57 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Garibay | 2000 | 30 | 8 | 74.7 | 6.51 | 6.03 | 5.08 | 5.16 |
| Mark Prior | 2006 | 9 | 9 | 43.7 | 8.04 | 7.21 | 6.56 | 5.17 |
| Mark Guthrie | 2003 | 65 | 0 | 42.7 | 2.95 | 2.74 | 5.49 | 5.20 |
| Jerome Williams | 2005 | 18 | 17 | 106.0 | 4.25 | 3.91 | 4.91 | 5.27 |
| Casey Coleman | 2010 | 12 | 8 | 57.0 | 4.26 | 4.11 | 4.24 | 5.30 |
| Carlos Marmol | 2006 | 19 | 13 | 77.0 | 6.31 | 6.08 | 6.47 | 5.50 |
Mark Prior was damn good at baseball. Carlos Marmol has the 2nd best kwERA season since 2000 and the worst. That about sums up each appearance.
Happy Christmas from Obstructed View!
As we continue the War on Christmas, let us not forget that the Martians fired the first shot:
http://youtu.be/6C5WwammH90
Merry New Year, all.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Scott Feldman had a great kwEra.
JManQuote Reply
Merry Christmas, everyone! Glad to be here.
All I want for Christmas is a .950 OPS 3B.
MylesQuote Reply
Merry Christmas to the OV staff and the commentators here who make this blog great!
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Myles:
If you add the OPS of Stewart and Vitters you might not even get .950.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ JMan:
It was good last year but not so good before that.
dmick89Quote Reply
Fuck you all (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
Tell that to the Cy Young voters. No, seriously, someone should tell them that.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Were these the same voters who vote for the HOF?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
Glad the ACLU was able to help you out, Mish.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-merry-christmas-middle-finger-20121222,0,5981940.story
Suburban kidQuote Reply
uncle daveQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Wow, Zambrano does terrible by kwERA.
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Edwin:
Z had a heavy sinker, this stat undervalues ground balls.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Happy St. Stephens’ Day
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AtVtx6H738
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
More than that, he’s outperformed his FIP (and even moreso his xFIP) by a fairly wide margin.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Also, Tango would point out that ERA is biased in favor of groundball pitchers (since grounders lead to errors and, hence, unearned runs). There’s a good chance that Z hasn’t been as good as his ERA would suggest.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
btw, Tom Glavine’s career kwERA: 4.69.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I probably have to adjust the constant for that. But still, Tom was one of those very rare great pitchers who wasn’t very good at either control or striking people out.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Couple of things to consider:
1. there will always be outliers due to some combination of sequencing, babip, matchups, etc… and probably some skill and luck in each of those departments.
2. Vasquez and Nolasco are two guys off the top of my head who have long gone the opposite direction relative to glavine and zambrano (good k and bb, not so great results).
3. k’s have gone up quite a bit in recent years.
GWQuote Reply
K’s and home runs have both been rising steadily for decades (though homers have roughly plateaued since 1994). So I’m sure the 5.4 constant has to be adjusted for previous eras, and would be grossly inaccurate in, say, the deadball era.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
For what it’s worth, I took a look at the 20 best GB% pitcher in 2012 with 100 or more innings and their kwERA-ERA was 0.25. The 20 lowest GB% pitchers were at -0.12. This is a small sample and nobody should draw any conclusions. Also, the high GB% pitchers had a higher ERA and FIP.
dmick89Quote Reply
Wow, I just noticed that Mike Trout’s 2012 is the 20th best season by a position player in history according to rWAR. Pretty good for a rookie who spent most of April in the minors.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
New shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/2012-in-review-january-when-we-were-stupidly-kind-of-optimistic-about-stuff.html
Aisle424Quote Reply