Cubs Sign Carlos Villanueva

In News And Rumors, Transactions by myles14 Comments

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/cubs-to-sign-carlos-villanueva.html

The Cubs have reportedly signed Carlos Villanueva to an undisclosed deal. Barring some unexpected turn of events (like Bob Nightengale involving the Nippon Ham Fighters in some insane bidding war), this appears to be final. What does it mean for the Cubs?

I'm not sure what the contract is, but almost certainly it means that the Cubs are going give him a great chance to start for them, and it's probably 1-year or 1-year with a team option.

Villanueva has a marked difference in peripherals from starting and relieving. His OPS during starts is .804 (that's bad) and during relief stints it's .677 (that's good). I'm not really that jazzed at first glance with his stuff: he doesn't throw over 89mph and doesn't change speeds that well (changeup is 81 mph, though he does throw a curveball 10% of the time). He's got the pitch arsenal of a starter, but has never really put it together for one reason or another. His FIP last year was 4.71, though the 2.65 K/BB rate is pretty encouraging. He was also either very unlucky against the longball last year, or we are all going to suffer through it in 2013. I'm willing to believe it's the latter, unfortunately, as his career HR/9 is 1.31.

If I were a betting man, I'd say this is a one year deal for around $4.5 million, with an option year at $6 or so. That seems reasonable to me for a starter flier, and probably about as much as he could reasonably expect coming off of a decidedly average year. Any less, and I'll be happy. Any more, and I'd be disappointed, but not extremely so.

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  4. GW

    (that tweet from heyman was after he reported the agreement with villanueva). If Edwin Jackson is indeed still in play, scott feldman could well end up as the seventh best starter on the roster

    Jed from Feldman’s intro presser:

    [Feldman] did sort of have one foot in, one foot out [of the rotation]. I think he felt like he was looking over his shoulder a lot. If he made a bad start, he might not necessarily make another one or might be in the bullpen. We certainly gave him the reassurance here: ‘You’re going to be a starting pitcher. You’re going to be in the rotation.’ [That] means a lot. It’s hard to perform when you’re always constantly worried about [your] job.

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  6. Aisle424

    @ GW:

    Brett brought up a good point as well. Injuries may be a factor here too. Garza and Baker are not necessarily a lock to start the season in the rotation.

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  9. GW

    @ Aisle424:

    Could be, though we’ve heard nothing along those lines, and with Baker signing only a one-year deal, one would think they are banking on him to be ready near the beginning of the season.

    Mainly I’m just surprised at how unequivocal Jed was in that Feldman presser given his awfulness, peripherally-speaking, for the bulk of his career. He seems like the type of pitcher that, when he’s penciled into your rotation, you continue to aggressively pursue other options.

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  10. dmick89

    @ GW:
    I thought I read that Baker probably won’t be ready to open the season, but shouldn’t be too far away. Maybe I imagined it or induced it based on a timeline.

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  11. GW

    He’s put the work in to get himself on an excellent timetable so he’s got pretty much every day plotted out from here through Spring Training. If things go perfectly, he’ll be stretched out to five or six innings for that first week of the season.

    That’s Theo from Brett’s site. I haven’t read anything else since then. So, yeah, start of the season isn’t a lock.

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  12. GW

    My point is that if they sign edwin and villanueva (far from a certainty), I would expect Feldman to be in the ‘pen even if Baker was out. Feldman vs. Wood is arguable, of course, but I don’t see how you could tell Feldman: “you’re going to be in the rotation” if you are planning to make those moves. Maybe the prices on ejax and villanueva are just much lower than they had assumed.

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