It appears as though the Cubs have signed Jason Heyward.
Multiple sources indicate Heyward has indeed chosen Cubs over Cards, Nats.
— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubCub) December 11, 2015
And from Heyman.
Cubs get heyward
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 11, 2015
Wow. That's so awesome. More to come.
Though the signing is not yet confirmed by the Cubs, the contract is reported to be only 8 years and $184 million. I thought for sure he'd get over $200 million and $250 million wouldn't have surprised me. It does reportedly include an opt-out clause after the 3rd year and possibly another opt-out at a later date. Opt-outs have kind of become the norm for large contracts so that's just how it goes. The Cubs have Heyward for his prime and that's what matters. If they want or need to renegotiate in a few years, they can do that with even more money on the way with a new tv contract.
UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal reported that he can opt out after the 3rd or 4th year if he meets certain number of plate appearances.
Comments
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Big if true.
MylesQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5bcpjUjLpU
MylesQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Fucking bring back Bloguin. I can’t post a gif to save my life.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I’m taking a wait and see approach.
JoshQuote Reply
Reports they’re working on a trade for SP. People figure Soler is gone but doesn’t Heyward make it more likely that Baez/Almora are redundant?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Although I guess trading Soler would have financial benefits the others wouldn’t.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
SERVER OVERLOAD
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Baez/McKinney for Carrasco, Jed.
Make my dreams come true.
MylesQuote Reply
..
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I’d think that They’re more likely to trade Soler than Baez, but honestly I’d rather see them put Heyward in Center and keep both of them.
UrkQuote Reply
As it stands, the lineup is
Zobrist 2B
Schwarber LF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Soler RF
Heyward CF
Montero C
Arrieta P
Russell SS
Arrieta
Lester
Lackey
Hendricks/Hammel/Warren/Wood/Johnson
MylesQuote Reply
The overloaded server won’t let me delete my stupid retweets from fake accounts.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
This is why we need likes. +1 rec’d turn that shit blue NAMBLA’D
MylesQuote Reply
Me too, but if they get rid of one, I want to jettison Baez.
MylesQuote Reply
Yes, I was afraid that would happen if something big like this happened. We’re cheap bastards since there aren’t any ads so we’ll get this resolved. It probably won’t be for a week or two though. Actually, I think I’ll aim for Christmas Eve to do it since no one will be around.
dmick89Quote Reply
Myles,
I dunno- I prefer Soler’s bat, but Baez has a lot more positional flexibility. Injuries happen.
UrkQuote Reply
go crazy folks! go crazy!
gaius mariusQuote Reply
Gordo sez plan is to play Heyward in CF for now. Soler in RF.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Wow. Still can’t believe this.
dmick89Quote Reply
I thought this might bring you around here. Good to see you. Great day for the Cubs.
dmick89Quote Reply
Best fans in baseball keeping it classy, as always:
@BestFansStLouis
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
gaius marius,
hey, gm! Nice to see you around these parts.
UrkQuote Reply
(insert Ron Paul “It’s Happening” .gif)
Holy crap this is awesome.
PerkinsQuote Reply
This. Is. Awesome.
PFDQuote Reply
Indeed.
dmick89Quote Reply
Gordo suggests contract is 8 years, less than $185MM. How?!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing) They got him for UNDER $185m.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Happy Hanukkah!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Best guess is an opt-out after 5 plate appearances or something.
Man. Theo Epstein, ladies and gentlemen.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
So, 8/$184 is $23 AAV on the nose. That’s what I’m predicting, with an opt-out after 3 years. Also heard it’s front AND back-loaded, so that will be interesting.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
That sounds about right. I might up the opt out to year 4.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Another great thing about Thoyer’s aggressiveness this offseason—the Cubs lose two picks this year—28 and 70-ish (or can they lose their compensation pick for Fowler?)—whatever it is, it’s better to sign two players in one offseason that cost a pick and none in the next than one in two consecutive years.
Any lingering doubt about the Cubs being all-in are now officially obliterated.
ceruleanQuote Reply
(dying laughing) at Cardinals blogs. Redbird Rants and VivaEl can’t bring themselves to put Cubs in their headlines.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Probably a signing bonus + usual contract structure, I’m guessing.
berseliusQuote Reply
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfPg5LjGYz8
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
this is great:
https://twitter.com/Uncle_Saul/status/675390643481391104/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
holy fuck that team was just atrocious.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
dmick89,
likewise, and happy holidays! Santa Theo is early.
isn’t it nice to finally have the franchise run competently? (dying laughing)
gaius mariusQuote Reply
This host hates HTML……..dancing gifs are a no go
SSQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
I couldn’t get my gif to work, either, so I posted a Youtube link.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It’s nice to see Theo go aggressive. Great timing.
MillertimeQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
LaHair was an All-Star!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
haha joe mather’s nickname was joe cotton mather according to his wikipedia page. that’s fucking great.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
who created joe mather’s wikipedia page? i mean it had to have been joe mather, right?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Absolutely. No doubt in my mind at all.
JoshQuote Reply
8/184 confirmed by the confirmers. Now just waiting on opt-out news.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Two opt outs. Wonder which years. Hopefully 5 and 7.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
what, no cookie monster gif?!?
meQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
Sounds like after year 3 for one of them. Depending on AAV, I’m okay with that. Still getting his best years. After that, he wants to walk for more, buh-bye.
(dying laughing), maybe Albert Almora will finally be ready.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
me,
berseliusQuote Reply
SS,
Site was updated recently and I haven’t edited the file that allows images to be posted yet. I’ll try to do that yet today. Sorry.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
day——>made
meQuote Reply
berselius,
admin privileges ftw
berseliusQuote Reply
Can you guys check to see if you can post images now using the html?
[img src=”http://www.domain.com/image.jpg”]
Just replace [ and ] with < and > and use your own url for the image of course.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m OK with an opt out after 3 years. The Cubs could still sign him if they like. Sounds like the contract has 2 opt outs.
dmick89Quote Reply
JonKneeV,
3 is reported, but I’m also guessing after the 5th year.
dmick89Quote Reply
A backloaded contract could help the Cubs out if it comes to Heyward opting out.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
though I think this one is more accurate right now
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Success!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
QaPla!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
uncle daveQuote Reply
berselius,
uncle daveQuote Reply
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89Quote Reply
Opt-outs after years 3 and 4. Tied to PAs.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Morosi reports Cubs have had dialogue with Dads for Ross and Tribe for Carrasco. Would imagine they’ll take their time on those fronts.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Carrasco, please.
dmick89Quote Reply
Really starting to like the idea of the 3rd year opt out. Heyward goes… and Theo can bring in Harper.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Plus, the opt-out costs the player money and there’s little risk for the team. I think Tangotiger and some others tried to calculate the cost of the opt-out. I can’t remember what it was, but it’s not insignificant. I would also imagine the timing of the opt-out costs. It’s going to cost Heyward more to have it after 3 years than 5 years, for example.
Bottom line is that the Cubs get Heyward for his prime years.
dmick89Quote Reply
I wonder if the Nats also have the best fans in baseball. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
I’m 100% OK with him opting out after either year. Get 3 or 4 of his prime years for just money. Sign him or someone else if/when he does opt out. That’ll be right around the time the Cubs start to think about signing some of the young guys longer term.
All in all, I love it.
srbutch5Quote Reply
One of the better Cards fan posts re: Heyward:
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
srbutch5,
Me too. This spins right and the Cubs are nowhere near the inevitable Heyward decline. All hail opt-outs.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
So, for the same Price as Price, Cubs got Heyward and Lackey. I’d call that a better use of 216MM, especially if you look at it via Rogers’ +/- scale.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
The only real risk is an early injury that he never recovers from. ACL or head trauma or the like. Basically, what those StL asshats that are a small but vocal percentage of their fanbase are calling for.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Why would you say especially? It’s the only scale that matters when looking at free agency. Though, Heyward + Lackey does have the poor-hitting Price beat in R+RBIs by a mile.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I would assume Cubs have insurance for that unhappy possibility.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
cerulean,
I forgot about R+RBI. That’s the worst thing every yet.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Right, but if the opt-out only vests when he hits a target number of PAs that concern goes away. I’m not at all a fan of opt-outs in general (for the Cubs, at least) as the team shoulders risk and is limited in getting upside, but if there are counterbalances to that risk it’s a different story.
uncle daveQuote Reply
uncle dave,
I think the age factor + the Heyward skill set makes the opt-out especially shrewd this time around.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
If the Cubs do trade Soler for pitching, why not bring Dexter Fowler back?
dmick89Quote Reply
rogers is a visionary and a poet
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
The opt-out won’t be a mutual thing. If Heyward gets hurt or underperforms, he’s staying put for sure. I hope that doesn’t happen. I hope we’re talking in 3 years about how much more money he can get via free agency. That’s what’s best for the Cubs. The Cubs have a few years to plan for that possibility.
I don’t think anyone would complain if the Cubs had signed Heyward to a 3-year, $80 million contract, or whatever it works out to. The cost of doing business with someone like Heyward is that you add on those extra years as insurance, which were going to be there anyway without an opt-out. The only difference is that it’s something the player asks for and pays for in return. How much? I have no clue, but I don’t see any risk for the Cubs here.
dmick89Quote Reply
Serious question: Has anyone taken a comprehensive look at solidly built lineups and their effect on individual performance—not talking R+RBIs, but straight up wOBA? I have an inkling that there is a significant positive feedback loop to a lineup without glaring holes.
Part of me thinks that there is no way Heyward, Bryant, and Rizzo exceed their 2015 production. But being all on the same team just entering their primes, watch out. 20 WAR might be the over/under.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Players hit better with runners on base so there’s at least that impact of having no holes. I think it would difficult to define and analyze other than that.
dmick89Quote Reply
I was thinking the same thing. I like Austin Jackson a lot too.
berseliusQuote Reply
I’m with FG when they say that opt outs have basically no positive “value” for a team. there are two scenarios…
1) the player is worth more than his contract yet he opts out and the team loses on potential excess value
2) the player is worth less than his contract and forces the team to pay more than he is worth
That being said, this is hopefully priced in to the contract and the team should get a discount in AAV to accommodate those opt outs. When people say “we will avoid his eventual downturn,” we’ll also miss the opportunity to pay for those years where he is still good enough to out-earn his salary just prior to his descent.
In the scenario where he opts out and we say “great, we can sign someone else!” he’s opting out because he’s worth more than we’d be paying him and therefore we’re losing out on excess value and will then end up paying more for those same wins on the FA market.
Unless it’s a cash strapped club where you couldn’t afford to pay face value without opt-out clauses, it’s tough to love these things from a fan’s perspective.
Thaaaaat being said, even if he ends up leaving, 3 years of Heyward > 0 years of Heyward.
sharpchicityQuote Reply
berselius,
*at the right price, of course
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
It would be a pretty complicated multivariate equation that might require the gravity of far-flung galaxies as an input, but I imagine something could be approximated. After all, my line of thinking was that men-on-base performance and corresponding pitcher fatigue/distraction/alteration of mechanics. I guess what I would look for is how much wOBA does a player have to add to raise his teammates wOBA by a per mille.
ceruleanQuote Reply
This is why Monte Carlo methods were invented.
berseliusQuote Reply
Permillage point?
ceruleanQuote Reply
berselius,
Indeed.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Perhaps, and under normal circumstances I’d agree, but I think Heyward’s is a unique situation that more easily justifies the opt-out(s).
But then, I start getting bearish on Heyward once he hits year 4 of this contract…
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I still think that Heyman was the one who actually broke the signing news, not Gordo, who might just have been saying that the Cubs were ahead of the Nats and Cardinals but says nothing about LAA. It was a perfectly timed tweet.
berseliusQuote Reply
I also think the whole “cost of pitching via trade” perception going around has more to do with Dave Stewart being a moron than how much pitchers are actually valued.
berseliusQuote Reply
Everything has a price. No-trade clauses cost the player some money. Opt-out clauses do too. Club options cost the team money and so on. Heyward with no opt-outs is probably paid somewhere close to $200 million or more.
I don’t know whether the team wins or the player wins in these deals, but I do know that we can’t analyze the current contract as if it would be the same if there were no opt-outs. We’re not sure what the contract would be with no opt-outs.
Also, star players want opt-out clauses these days. They want no-trade clauses. If you’re going to go after star players, and I definitely want the Cubs to be active there, then that’s just the cost of doing business with star athletes.
Opt outs, no trade clauses and backloaded contracts don’t bother me.
dmick89Quote Reply
I just hope Heyward doesn’t have a knee injury in the first year of his contract like Soriano did.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-of-the-opt-out-clause-in-the-david-price-contract/
dmick89Quote Reply
This.
This too.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
https://twitter.com/SamMillerBP/status/675391316637843456
GWQuote Reply
GW,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I feel like opt-outs are unambiguously bad for teams, but that the vesting aspect of this one (if true) mitigates a lot of the risk. Either way, the deal will most likely be worth it. (I’m thinking it’s worth it already just because it’s pissed off so many Cardinals fans.)
uncle daveQuote Reply
GW,
Brilliant.
dmick89,
The really big difference about this Heyward deal vs that Soriano deal—five years. Imagine the Cubs signing Soriano in his age 26 season instead of age 31. Sure knee injuries can and do happen to 20-something athletes (Derrick Rose, for instance, though not often in baseball), but the body’s resilience to come back from injury at age 26 vs age 31 is pretty huge. After 25, it’s all downhill.
For the record, Soriano’s bWAR from ages 26–33:
26: 4.8
27: 5.0
28: 2.0
29: 1.6
30: 6.1
31: 4.3
32: 2.0
33: –1.6
ceruleanQuote Reply
According to some comments in the VEB thread, the Cardinals did beat the Cubs offer, but wouldn’t include any opt-outs.
dmick89Quote Reply
Chicago has lower taxes, too, I think.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Really? That’s surprising.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s what Keith Law reported: https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/675428718823800832
But, yeah, you’d think IL would have higher taxes than MO.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Getting pretty disappointed there’s been no corresponding move for Kershaw or Trout since we landed Heyward.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
dmick89,
Income taxes. Not all taxes. Chicago has higher sales tax on top of a modest state tax and will nickel and dime you to death if you try to do anything like live there and run a business. The rest of Illinois is more of a red state with all the midwestern conservatism that implies.
ceruleanQuote Reply
(dying laughing). Trader.
dmick89Quote Reply
There are a lot of options traded in Chicago. Heyward apparently has two. Maybe that’s what he means.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Do the Cubs play tonight?
andcountingQuote Reply
The “trader” meme is often used with humorous intent, fwiw.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Good read. http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2015/12/11/9912536/cardinals-cubs-jason-heyward-loyalty
dmick89Quote Reply
andcounting,
I wish.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Remember the one about the Ricketts being tightwads?
Me neither
BVSQuote Reply
What’s the payroll at now?
SkQuote Reply
Texa$
MylesQuote Reply
I’m going to post an update to it this morning.
dmick89Quote Reply
Alvin, aware that he is seen as a fanboy apologist, tragically fails at choosing when to disagree with management. Every damn time.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
His lack of imagination never ceases to amaze. I wonder if he’s ever thought of a political career. He could go far.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
If it was Yellon vs. Trump, Yellon would be our next president. That’s almost as fucking scary as if Trump was president.
dmick89Quote Reply
Really good. I don’t think the BFIB reaction would’ve been nearly as strong if Heyward had gone anywhere other than to the Cubs. It was probably doubled by the Cubs’ victory over the Cardinals in the playoffs, which I constantly have to remind myself actually happened. Aside from the rivalry, he was there one year. It shouldn’t be that big of a deal.
andcountingQuote Reply
My, fellow, Americans, you’ve been warned.
andcountingQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/2016-cubs-payroll-update-1212/
dmick89Quote Reply