darvish deal is $126M for 6 years, source says. #cubs
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) February 10, 2018
So, it's finally happened. After approximately 40 months, Yu Darvish has finally made it official with the Cubs, signing a 6-year, $126 million deal. There are incentives that could increase the total take to $150 million, but the first indication is that those incentives are somewhat difficult to maximize (a mix of start totals/ASG/Cy Youngs). Generally, the idea behind incentives is that you WANT him to hit them, so I'm all for it.
When I was musing about a "reasonable" contract for Darvish, I sort of felt 5/$125 was fine. To get the 6th year at $1 million is reasonble – it will be Darvish's age-36 season and at the point he'll almost certainly be a 5th starter or bullpen arm. If the Cubs win the 2018 and/or 2019 World Series, absolutely no reasonable Cubs fan will give a shit about the $21 million albatross in the Cubs rotation in 2022/2023.
Yu Darvish was either #1A or #1B in the free agency wishlist depending on your thoughts about Jake Arrieta. I think I leaned towards Arrieta with injuries as the tiebreaker (Arrieta is hurt much less often), but Darvish is the slightly better projection going forward. Pretty difficult to watch Darvish annihilate the Cubs in the NLCS last year and not come away impressed. He was tipping his pitches in the World Series and may well have cost them the entire thing, but that seems to be an issue that is fairly easy to resolve. Darvish throws righty, strikes out a ton of batters (27.3% K rate), and features one of the better sliders in baseball. Darvish is also unique in the sense that he features 4 primary offerings (4, slider, sinker, cutter all used 15% of the time or more), a secondary offering (curveball around 5% of the time), and 2 novelty pitches (a change he might throw twice a game and a splitter he might throw once). He's nearly impossible to counter-sequence because he's willing to throw nearly any pitch during nearly any count. That said, he has traditional splits (in fact, lefties hit him slightly better than you'd expect from someone with normal splits), and you'd think intuitively that any body who can generate run to both sides of the plate would be able to split-neutralize. Not Darvish.
If you're looking for something to gripe about, you don't have to look far. From 2014 to 2016, his inning totals were 144.1, 0, 100.1. That's very troubling – allayed slightly by his 2017 campaign and the fact that he got stronger as the year progressed. Still, he's got a long list of ex-DL stints, and they'll tell you he's in pain. He's got a blank slate now, though.
Yu Darvish hit a home run in 2016.In fact, he has more than quintupled Shohei Otani's MLB total for their careers.
The bottom line is that the Cubs absolutely needed another starter to be competitive in the upper echelon of baseball this year. The Cubs were set 1-5 in an age where you need at least 6 starters in a given year (and probably 7 or 8). They have 4 playoff-caliber starters in a league that requires 4 or 5. In my opinion, this is a very solid signing and pretty firmly puts the Cubs in the driver's seat of the NL Central (apologies to the Cardinals and Brewers).
Let's grab Alex Cobb anyway and call it an off-season.
Comments
You called it
mylesQuote Reply
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
PerkinsQuote Reply
The background is all messed up.
dmick89Quote Reply
I may have done something with post width, idk.
MylesQuote Reply
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Myles,
Yeah, it’s fixed. You had set a background image, which would be okay if it wasn’t an animated neon green Ron Paul gif. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
This post is also full width for some reason.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Fixed.
dmick89Quote Reply
I preferred Darvish to Arrieta, so pretty pleased here. Of course if the Cubs sign both even better. Maybe Jake will pull a Dexter Fowler (dying laughing).
Berselius is too lazy to log inQuote Reply
This really messes with OV’s new thread schedule which was settling nicely into a monthly format.
SKQuote Reply
Jake can’t be offered a QO next year if he signs so a pillow contract actually makes a lot of sense here for both parties.
RiceQuote Reply
Jake doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy who would be too happy to return to the cubs on a one year deal.
Fowler returned at the start of spring training when the cubs were already the best team in baseball.
dmick89Quote Reply
Fixed
berseliusQuote Reply
Apparently the opt out is prior to three years so whatever that means. I’m guessing after 2019, but the wording of the tweet could still mean after 2020. I don’t really care about opt outs so whatever.
dmick89Quote Reply
Opt outs are generally a good thing for MLB teams since free agents are past their peak years. Hopefully Yu pitches well enough to opt out.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
The MLB economy is so screwed that I don’t think he’d opt out even if he didn’t suck.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
We WANT Yu to opt out.
MylesQuote Reply
Don’t tell me what to do.
Berselius is too lazy to log inQuote Reply
Myles,
Of course we do! I just don’t think it will happen.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cubs win. Now let’s go on strike.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Hoping that the Twins, rather than the Brewers or Dodgers, end up with Arrieta now that Darvish is off the table.
berseliusQuote Reply
I’m generally very pro player in these kinds of things, but it’s getting pretty hard when you see guys like JD Martinez, who has 13.5 WAR in his career, is complaining that teams aren’t willing to give him the 7/210 deal that he’s holding out for while he has 5/125 already on the table.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
I agree it seems totally out of whack, but there’s so much money in baseball these days. The players in MLB still make a lower percentage of revenue than the other three major sports. The players in baseball are getting screwed, especially the league minimum guys.
dmick89Quote Reply
Uh…
NFL PlayersQuote Reply
NFL Players,
Yeah, looks like the NFL players kinda get screwed. I was wrong. I remember something from Tangotiger from a few years ago about this and for some reason I thought MLB players made the lowest percentage. A few years ago I would have looked into this to find out where I read that, but I just don’t care these days.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d still be pretty happy if the Cubs could get Jaime Garcia on a reasonable deal. He’d be good rotation depth from the ‘pen like Montgomery, and better than Grimm and possibly also Cishek if he’s in one of his down cycles.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
I’d go after Cobb or Lynn and push Chatwood into the swing role.
dmick89Quote Reply
Definitely.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
I don’t think they’ll do that if they’re blowing the bank for Harper next year and need to keep draft picks knowing they’ll lose a few next year if they go over the tax a bunch.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
As much as I’d love for the Cubs to sign Harper, I don’t think you can even count on him getting to free agency and even if he does, there’s going to be a huge bidding war for him. Odds he ends up in Chicago are pretty slim even if we’ve already started penciling him into our dream 2019 lineup.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube,
Myles,
Rice Cube shares my thought. Cobb brings the Cubs much closer to the luxury tax limit that Garcia would. And that kind of money to push Chatwood into a $12 M relief pitcher seems redundant for little gain in the short term and even less gain in the long term since there would be less flexibility if you were staying under luxury tax after next season.
OTOH, next year’s FA class is huge, but with only two really young marquis players: Harper and Machado. If Russell or Baez flame out, I guess you could put Zo or Happ at 2b and whoever doesn’t flame out at SS. So the money could be spent on either Harper or Machado.
Or, the money could be spent on Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Hendricks, etc.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
You could assume at least some of them will sign extensions. I think Harper is going to free agency because he’d be unwise to not at least test his market. I think Machado is the same because the Orioles are terrible in every way imaginable, and I don’t think they’ll throw money at him.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’d love an extension for Bryant, but no thanks on the others. Rizzo still has 2 years plus 2 options years on his contract at which point he’ll be 32. I’m not sure I want to bet much more than arbitration money on Hendricks continuing to be a good pitcher and before I give out an extension to Russell I’d like to see some improvement from him at the plate.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube,
Speaking of terrible teams ponying up big dollars, I’m a little baffled by all the chatter out there about the Phillies being a landing spot for Arrieta.
Berselius is too lazy to log inQuote Reply
dmick89,
After KB I think Contreras is the next guy I would want the Cubs to lock up at some point.
Berselius is too lazy to log inQuote Reply
With an extension, I mean. I don’t want the Cubs to put both of them in jail.
Berselius is too lazy to log inQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to log in,
It makes sense because they have a boatload of money and they also are allegedly on the verge of a turnaround.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Didn’t all of their prospects crater last year?
Berselius is too lazy to log inQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to log in,
I don’t remember, but that Rhys Hoskins guy was very pesky.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to log in,
Lock them up! Lock them up!
dmick89Quote Reply
Totally agree about this. Also with B on Contreras. We’ll know more next fall. If Harper or Machado don’t sign with the Cubs, then extensions might be a pretty good way to spend some money.
Looking at the MLBTR FA list for next year, it seems that there are the two marquis guys, then a bunch of guys would be great to contemplate, but who’s options will certainly be picked up (like Bumgarner) and then a slightly older class than this year. Seems to me that if MLB Players Union wants bigger money, they need to negotiate earlier arbitration or free agency. The idea that 36 year olds will all produce like Nelson Cruz has been debunked by now and it looks like teams are wising up.
BVSQuote Reply
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zR_wCYmjdkg
TyroneQuote Reply
PECOTA has the Cubs up to 92 wins after the Darvish signing. They’re 8 ahead of the Cardinals and 9 ahead of the Brewers.
dmick89Quote Reply
Tyrone,
This is what they played before each of Yu’s starts in Arlington.
TyroneQuote Reply
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJs_L7yq5qE
MylesQuote Reply
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ue2OA33jZac
MylesQuote Reply
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5X5zh00rdg
MylesQuote Reply
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=arrieja01&t=p&year=2015
Good all year, but out of his mind from August on.
TyroneQuote Reply
Myles,
Yes, I went through this phase for a few days a few years ago. It’ll pass.
TyroneQuote Reply
TyroneQuote Reply
TyroneQuote Reply
SHUT UP DAD
MylesQuote Reply
TyroneQuote Reply
Myles,
Borrow a comma from Alvin because I’m not sure how to respond to this.
TyroneQuote Reply
Bud Norris———->STL
He’ll fit right in there, what with his racism and all.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Tyrone,
I forgot how mesmerizing this gif is.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
Enjoy being mesmered.
TyroneQuote Reply
Tyrone,
“Don’t tell me what to do.
— Berselius is too lazy to login”
TyroneQuote Reply
Tyrone,
“Don’t tell me what I’ll post.
— Berselius is too lazy to login”
TyroneQuote Reply
Great tweet.
TyroneQuote Reply
I’ve honestly had this song in my head for months.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yu-darvish-makes-the-cubs-a-top-tier-team-again/
dmick89Quote Reply
Make Cubs Great Again?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
JKVQuote Reply
I’m blocked by Emma Span on twitter and I have literally no idea why.
mylesQuote Reply
Checked my twitter, literally never mentioned her once. She must know about the dead bodies.
mylesQuote Reply
Unless there’s a pretty good-sized drop in production or injury, there’s no question he’s opting out, right?
Which pretty much means there’s a two-year window of legit competing and then what? Fire sale?
TyroneQuote Reply
Tyrone,
I’m not sure I understand why you’d front-load a contract with an opt-out in it. It’s basically a 2-year deal for $45 million, which I think is a good deal for the Cubs and for Darvish. I can’t imagine a scenario in which he doesn’t opt out that doesn’t include him being injured for a significant part of the contract.
dmick89Quote Reply
no, in two years, the cubs will be graduating a bunch of arms from the farm syst-
oh yeah i guess fire sale.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
dmick89
That’s what I saw as well. 2/$45million with basically an $81-million insurance policy for Darvish.
TyroneQuote Reply
Gimenez:
TyroneQuote Reply
Tyrone,
I was kind of watching the press conference and I caught that part. I couldn’t tell if he was joking or not. I think he had to be joking because why else would the Cubs sign Giminez?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Pretty surprising, huh? #japplays #nodisrespect #orientals
Bill ParcellsQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Adbert.
TyroneQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
They’d be about a year away from guys like Bryant etc. reaching free agency so a fire sale is not out of the realm of possibility…
Rice at schoolQuote Reply
If the Cubs would have traded Arrieta and Davis like I wanted them to last year, we wouldn’t have to do the 2021 fire sale
/s
mylesQuote Reply
Darvish’s agent probably wanted it that way. If you plan on opting out, you might as well try to front-load it as much as you can. The Cubs also probably have more money right now then they will later.
As far as finding pitching later on, if the Cubs sign Harper or Machado, I assume you can deal a young player for some pitching.
mylesQuote Reply
Going over luxury tax in the 2019 season probably means the Cubs lose a draft pick for 2019 and then the penalties will slam them with lost draft picks and forfeited international money. So I imagine this summer will be very important for restocking the minors.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I understand why the agent wanted it and I understand that contracts are an agreement. Darvish didn’t get the front-loaded contract plus an opt-out without giving up something on the back end of the deal (less financial security and fewer teams he can reject a trade to). I’m just not sure I’ve seen it before. I probably have, but I don’t remember it.
I don’t think it really matters because both parties looked at this as a 2/45 deal with an insurance policy.
dmick89Quote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/first-look-new-cubs-pitchers/
mylesQuote Reply