Ryan Dempster threw 7.2 impressive innings today as the Cubs beat the Cubs. I imagine the Cubs will be beating themselves a lot this season so they're just getting us used to it right away. Dempster allowed only 2 hits, but 1 of those was a ball that Jeff Baker didn't feel like bending over to field. Baker, playing because Bryan LaHair is injured, went to his right to field a ball and while he could have easily fielded it simply by bending over, he let it go thinking Darwin Barney's strong transformed arm would complete the play.
It was also that error hit that allowed the Nationals to tie the game at 1 in the top of the 8th inning. Had Baker don'e his job, Dempster gets through 8 innings having allowed only a hit and no runs. Instead, Dempster leaves after 7.2 innings. He'd reached 108 pitches. I was surprised to see him return for the 8th inning. He had thrown 92 pitches after 7 and I figured that's a pretty good total for a first start. Sveum (and I imagine many other managers too) disagreed and sent Dempster back out. I'm sure Dempster talked himself into staying in the game too.
He did his job in the 8th and should have completed the inning, but left with 2 outs and a runner at 1st base. Kerry Wood entered the game and gave the fans his best Carlos Marmol impersonation. Wood walked 3, including a walk that scored that tying run, before retiring the final out of the inning.
To give you an idea how useless ERA is, this is a great example. Wood walked 3 and recorded 1 out. Dempster was fantastic. He struggled a bit early, but settled down in the 3rd inning and just shut the Nationals down. Wood allowed 0 earned runs and thanks to his 3 walks Dempster allowed an earned run.
Marmol entered the game in the 9th with a tie game and he allowed a couple hits and a run. In the bottom of the 9th with 1 out Ian Stewart tripled to RF and then ran himself into an out at home plate (thanks to Joe Mather's appearance in the comments I remembered that it was he who was thrown out at home and not Stewart). There's not a lot you can do about it though. He was running on contact, which most managers would have done. Soriano also ran into an out at 3rd earlier in the game so the Cubs ran themselves into two more outs than you'd like.
Neither of those were particularly bad by themselves, but this is a bad baserunning team. They ran themselves into way too many outs in spring training as Sveum preached aggressiveness on the bases. I don't think anybody had high hopes for this team on the bases, but from what we've seen this spring and today it looks like they have a manager who will actually try to maximize their poor baserunning. You'd think he'd try to minimize it.
In honor of what will surely be an exciting season on the bases, we'd like to introduce you to do our TOOTBLAN counter.
Comments
That’s not fair. The same argument could be used for plain old Run Average (or RA9), and I don’t think anyone would argue that that stat is useless. The fact that there are some unusual circumstances doesn’t invalidate ERA (or RA9) any more than reaching on a bloop single invalidates OBP (or any other hitting measure). These fluke occurrences tend to even out in the long run.
ACTQuote Reply
I was the one thrown out at home, not Stewart.
Joe MatherQuote Reply
It’ll be an interesting game to see if the Cubs score more TOOTBLANS than runs this year.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
This should’ve been the OVblog contest tiebreaker.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Eww. Clayton Kershaw had stomach flu. That’s why he was out early, thankfully, and not because he broke something.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Blue Jays catcher went 16 innings behind the plate before belting the game winning home run. That’s impressive.
joshQuote Reply
What’s a good underdog team to root for this year? I guess the Rays. I don’t think the Jays are good enough. The Indians probably aren’t either. Maybe the Angels, with Pujols and Wilson?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I’d go with the Nationals
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ josh:
The Rays aren’t underdogs. Olbermann picked them to win the division.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
You really think the Nationals have a chance? They’re up against the Phillies and Braves. Maybe wildcard.
joshQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I’m not even clear why Olbermann gets a vote.
joshQuote Reply
I like the Nationals as an underdog, but I also think the Jays are good enough to hang around for one of the wild cards, especially after the Nats add Marlon Byrd and the Jays add Matt Garza
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
I’m putting 20 bucks down on the Rays as WS champs
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
@ josh:
I’d root for the Jays.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
We live in a democracy. Everyone gets a vote.
ACTQuote Reply
All right, I’ll make the Jays my backup team, IF the Cubs start faltering.
The headline has a typo: “Strasburg pitches Nats past Cubs”
They spelled “Kerry Wood” wrong.
joshQuote Reply
Nice gesture by the Rangers.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
ACT wrote:
Yes, but with ERA it takes a very long time for it to even out. I know what I wrote isn’t fair. I used it as example to illustrate one of the weaknesses of ERA. Another example would have been that the run was earned and it was attributed to Dempster. The ball that Baker didn’t field was not called an error simply because he didn’t get his glove on the ball. I don’t think there’s a single person who would ever watch that play that would say anything other than Baker should have made that play.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
He should’ve made the play because Dempster was covering 1B and the guy would’ve been out by 20 feet.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I wonder if Len Kasper thinks Kerry Wood’s number should be retired.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
This is different.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Needs more Samardzjia, less Batman
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I’m kind of bored tonight so stay tuned (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
Cubs all the way!
mb21Quote Reply
@ josh:
I agree. i don’t think the Nationals have much of a chance with two of the better teams in the league in their same division.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, there’s no doubt whatsoever that the runner would have been out. That’s the obvious flaw with using errors to evaluate fielding. It’s also part of the reason why ERA is a terrible statistic over smaller sample sizes. Over several years it will even out as ACT said, but it takes awhile for that to happen.
mb21Quote Reply
(dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I wish I could somehow incorporate Yellon on his phone with this.
GBTSQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Maybe Samardzija is Batman
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I thought Mish was Batman.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Captain Morgan is Batman?!?!?!
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Mish is Jeff Samardzjia?!?!?!
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
RC, have fun:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Just replace the cell phone
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Did already…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yes…keep believing this…
MishQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mish:
don’t tell me what to do
BerseliusQuote Reply
Happy Easter, y’all.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Cubs are looking at John Lannan, according to MLBTR. His numbers aren’t that good.
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Yeah, I don’t understand the fascination with shitty starting pitchers.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
They are adding to their impressive pitching “depth”, don’tchya know.
MishQuote Reply
Yeah, I mean, they already have three John Lannans. I don’t get how he would be an upgrade for anyone. I mean, technically, if you’re looking at projections, he would be an upgrade for Samardzija, but so would Randy Wells. They must be thinking of putting Lannan in the bullpen if they acquire him.
joshQuote Reply
Brett Jackson 2-4 w ribs 1 AB 1 bb 2ks
Rizzo 2-4 RBI and stolen base
Vitters 1-3 with bb
Logan Watkins 3-5 with RBI And sb
Jane noon ha 2-5 with 2b and rbi
Nick struck 6ip 4 h 1 bb 10 k
Szczur 1-5 with rbi
Torreyes 2-5
Silva 3-4
M. Hernandez 1-4
Devoss 1-5 3ks
Golden 0-4
Easterling O-3 with bb.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
Wait, Vitters drew a walk?
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
@ josh:
Maybe they’re Beatles fans and they read his name wrong.
ACTQuote Reply
Honestly, Lannan isn’t that bad. He’s a 1-2 WAR pitcher, slightly below average.
ACTQuote Reply
I have a deep and abiding fear that when Jackson is called up, he’s going to make Drew Stubbs look like a model of patience and plate discipline.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Wasn’t he a pretty well-regarded prospect before his arm problems?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Isn’t it because of his patience and plate discipline that he is able to work deep counts which causes him to both walk a lot and strike out a lot?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
He’s K’ing at a 25%-30% clip in the minors. There’s just no positive way to spin that. He’s not Adam Dunn. I’m not saying he’s a bust. I really have high hopes for him. But at the rate he’s going, we’re looking at a guy who is going to K 150-200 times at the major league level. That’s a shitton of unproductive outs. The good things is, as you point out, the K’s are really the only glaring hole in his game, so at least his biggest problem is rectifiable to a certain degree.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
face ———-> palm
http://obstructedview.net/facepalm/daily-facepalm-4-6-12.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
I Have been a cub fan all of my 53 years and I know they WILL never win , they stink every year the only good thing about the cubs is wrigley field, another good thing about the cubs the season ends july 1st I cant watch 162 games and theres no stress being a cub fan as you KNOW there going to lose,,
Nick GQuote Reply