Cubs’ Steamer Projections

In Commentary And Analysis by myles113 Comments

While we wait for Tanaka to make a decision between choosing the Yankees today, or choosing the Yankees tomorrow, I took a look at how our offense performed relative to the league at each prediction. I then looked at who was projected to get the bulk of the starts at each position, and compared their Steamer projection to last year's averages.

  BA OBP SLG wOBA
C 0.245 0.31 0.388 0.307
1B 0.254 0.332 0.43 0.333
2B 0.257 0.316 0.376 0.305
SS 0.254 0.308 0.367 0.298
3B 0.256 0.317 0.398 0.314
LF 0.252 0.32 0.399 0.317
CF 0.258 0.324 0.395 0.317
RF 0.261 0.324 0.419 0.325

These are the averages from last year. Here's the primary starter last year as of season's end last year, and their slash lines:

2013 P AVG BA OBP SLG wOBA difference
Castillo 0.274 0.349 0.397 0.331 0.024
Rizzo 0.233 0.323 0.419 0.325 -0.008
Barney 0.208 0.266 0.303 0.252 -0.053
Castro 0.245 0.284 0.347 0.28 -0.018
Valbuena 0.218 0.331 0.378 0.315 0.001
Lake 0.284 0.332 0.428 0.335 0.018
Sweeney 0.266 0.324 0.448 0.337 0.02
Schierholtz 0.251 0.301 0.47 0.331 0.006

Now, that doesn't tell the whole story. Soriano played a lot more often than Lake did, and it also ignores the backups for each position. To get a slightly clearer picture (only slightly clearer because FanGraphs can not sort by actual starts at each position – instead, it puts the FULL stats of anyone who played appreciably at any position), here's the slash by position, instead:

C 0.039
1B -0.008
2B -0.062
SS -0.018
3B 0.005
LF 0.004
CF 0.002
RF -0.018
Total -0.056
AVG -0.007

That means that the average wOBA, team-wide, was 7 points lower than the major league average. This doesn't exactly match to the actual difference of 10 points between the league wOBA (.314) and the Cubs' wOBA (.304), but it'll work for my purposes.

Next, I took the Steamer projections for the same 8 players (sadly, the team did not make literally a single upgrade to the offense this offseason so far).

    BA OBP SLG wOBA  
C Castillo 0.255 0.328 0.414 0.326 0.019
1B Rizzo 0.268 0.35 0.501 0.367 0.034
2B Barney 0.248 0.3 0.344 0.285 -0.02
SS Castro 0.277 0.32 0.411 0.319 0.021
3B Valbuena 0.24 0.326 0.383 0.315 0.001
LF Lake 0.258 0.307 0.396 0.309 -0.008
CF Sweeney 0.269 0.331 0.401 0.322 0.005
RF Schierholtz 0.256 0.314 0.432 0.324 -0.001
Total           0.051
AVG           0.006375

As you can see, Steamer is relatively optimistic essentially across the board. There are minor regressions from Lake, Sweeney, Schierholtz, and Castillo, but Steamer (and most projections) are very bullish on Castro's ability to bounce back, and it foresees similar leaps forward from Rizzo and Barney. I will say that if Barney doesn't take those leaps, he'll be replaced, and essentially anyone who replaces him will provide the .285 wOBA he's projected to hit (and probably a bit more). 

All told, these projections would have us at 6 points above average, offensively. I'm definitely not buying that, especially because we were only supposed to be 7 point below last year and we were actually 10. We also will undoubtedly lose some of these starters to injury and/or ineffectiveness. On the whole, though, I think the makeup of our team is ideal for some natural improvement. As constituted, the team has a chance to be average offensively, and I'd confidently peg them as just a whisper or two below.

 

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Comments

  1. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    I’m not sure what you’re using as average, Myles. Did Steamer publish what the average wOBA in the NL was? Are you just assuming it was last season? Did you exclude the pitcher batting?

    Sorry if this was stated and I overlooked it.

    There’s just no way this is an above average offense. Not even in the lesser league.

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  2. J

    So, after Tanaka signs with NYY, I hope Ubaldo gets an offer from the Cubs. I wouldn’t even mind E. Santana on a 3 year deal. Apparently Garza’s medicals are scaring teams, and I think we’ve all seen enough when it comes to his ability to field a bunt. That’s a stay away. And I think the risk of Arroyo falling below replacement level at any point is too high, though he does tend to stay healthy.

    I stand by trying to get Balfour and Ubaldo on frontloaded deals for the next 1-2 years and flipping them mid-2015 if it’s the right move then.

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  3. fang2415

    J wrote:

    we’ve all seen enough when it comes to his ability to field a bunt.

    I doubt I could ever see enough of this
    [img]http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5489/9317480990_425d4f0c90_o.gif[/img]

    Also, not sure either of the other guys is worth a draft pick, even if they could ultimately be converted into Nolasco

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  4. Like You Care

    I’m friends with a few Indians fans who were wondering if any of you have the Cleveland Steamer projections.

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  5. Edwin

    Maybe this is like one of those rumors that comes out and then turns out not to be true? Or does that only happen to the Cubs?

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  6. Author
    Myles

    It’s really 7/175, given the posting fee. Giving 7 years and 25 per to a pitcher who hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors is an insane proposition, so I’m not faulting the Cubs for not signing him to a contract above that.

    It is really depressing that the 2014 Cubs as of this point have not really upgraded the team in any fashion (though that might change relatively soon).

    Time to look at the remaining dregs of this class and see if we’re getting anything. I will say that the price of Jimenez and Santana probably went down (Garza is as good as a Diamondback at this point).

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  7. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    @ Myles:
    I think you’d have to be somewhat crazy to fault the Cubs if the reported offer is correct.

    I don’t think I really want any of the other guys available. I think the time to improve the team was earlier this offseason or now do it through some trades.

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  8. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    @ Mucker:
    I have a ton of respect for the Yankees. This doesn’t change that one bit. It’s not like they’re selling players on New York or Yankee Stadium or all those championships. I’m sure that’s part of it, but they sell players to come to New York by paying the most. In this case they didn’t even do that according to the reports.

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  9. Author
    Myles

    @ fang2415:

    Opt-outs make a ton of sense for the team and the player. The team has less incentive not to offer one than you might think, because if they opt-out, that means they earned their contract. In the Yankees case, that probably means they won a WS or two. For the Cubs, it’s a lot worse. Even if Tanaka shot the lights out years 1-3, we still aren’t a WS favorite or even likely contender. Since the Yankees/Dodgers benefit equally in each year of the contract, it matters less to them to offer the opt-out, especially because what it really means is that they’ll just extend him in Year 3.

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  10. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    @ fang2415:
    It depends on what the player wants too. If I’m a free agent I will be insistent on some things and flexible on others. I may want more hotel suites and a no-trade clause. Without those I won’t sign. I may want an opt-out clause. None of that comes without a price.

    If I enter negotiations open to anything and get something like a 6/150 offer and then tell them I want something, an opt-out clause, it comes at a cost. The team may or may not be willing to do that, but if they do, I’ll no longer get a 6/150 offer. It will be 6/140 or something. If I also want a no-trade, maybe it comes down to 6/130.

    Teams aren’t just throwing these things in there without getting something in return.

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  11. fang2415

    Brett wrote:

    you can bet that the Yankees lingered around the six-year, $120 million mark for a long time before something – read: the Cubs’ offer? – pushed them to move upward considerably. And if that’s how things played out (I’m just speculating), it’s a pretty fair guess that Tanaka always wanted to go to New York (or L.A.), and was simply waiting for one of them to blink on the price.

    If the Cubs’ bid was actually close to the Yankees’, then this seems like pretty sensible speculation from Brett. If the Yankees had set the bar first, it seems like the Cubes presumably would have either outbid them or sat it out?

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  12. Author
    Myles

    It’s important to note, also, that 6/120 and 7/155 are leagues apart. That represents 5 MM a year for the length of the contract, which is essentially Jorge Soler.

    The Cubs’ offer and the Yankee’s offer, pre-upgrade, was Jorge Soler. Let that sink in for a second.

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  13. fang2415

    Myles wrote:

    if they opt-out, that means they earned their contract.

    This is the crux of it, but I think I’m too stupid to work out quite how that valuation works. What’s the amount of extra money that the player would accept instead of the opt-out?

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  14. WaLi

    I mean can’t fault the Cubs for this instance, that’s a shit ton of money and Tanaka never wanted to play for the Cubs it appears, but still that doesn’t mean I’m not upset.

    If the Cubs have shown they could be competitive before this, then Tanaka may have wanted to come to Chicago. But because the Cubs look like absolute shit, he never wanted to come.

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  15. fang2415

    @ Myles:
    Wait a sec, do we think that the Cubs only offered 6/120 (or thereabouts)? Brett’s speculation is that the Yankees only offered that until the Cubs bid them up to around what they ended up paying.

    If the Cubs really only went to 6/120, then they just plain didn’t want him as bad as the Yankees. (Maybe smartly.) If the Cubs’ offer was close to the Yankees’, then there probably wasn’t anything they could do.

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  16. Author
    Myles

    No, I’m saying the CUBS offered 7/155 and the YANKEES offered 6/120. The Yankees finally met the Cubs’ offer today and that’s why he signed. The Cubs were REALLY in on him, and I can’t fault them for going higher than they did. They were willing to offer the equivalent of Jorge Soler more than the next highest bid until the Yankees went and Yankee’d it up.

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  17. Smokestack Lightning

    @ WaLi:

    Obviously, the Cubs are in bad shape now, but I’m surprised he chose the Yankees if the Dodgers were up there. We always assume the Yankees are going to be good, but I don’t think that’s the case anymore. That is an old-ass mediocre team even with Tanaka. And there are not many ways for them to get better in the near future.

    But I suppose they’ll find a way because hey, they’re the Yankees.

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  18. fang2415

    @ Myles:
    Okay, that makes sense to me.

    It’ll be interesting to hear what the Cubs actual offer was, even approximately. That will probably be quite relevant to the are-they-willing-to-spend debate.

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  19. EnricoPallazzo

    if tanaka chose the yankees strictly because he thought they were in a better position to win, i don’t get it. yes, the yankees will do marginally better than the cubs this year, but who gives a fuck if you go 80-82 vs 70-92? and why are the cubs any worse off than the yankees in 2015? they’ve got very little on the books and if FO can convince tanaka (or whoever) that they’ve got cash and are willing to spend it, the cubs look pretty good. #2 farm team in baseball, no albatross contracts, money to spend…

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  20. Some guy

    Stinky. The cubs should be the Yankees with more payroll flexibility. Hell, the Yankees went into the season a low to mid 70 win team per RLYW. With their additions they should be above average. Imagine the cubs with McCann, ellsbury, kuroda, tanaka, Beltran, and their passel if prospects. That’s a potentially formidable team. Instead theyre losing guys like Fausto despite beating Philly’s offer by 500k.

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  21. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    Smokestack Lightning wrote:

    But I suppose they’ll find a way because hey, they’re the Yankees.

    This. I think others counting them out due to a variety of reasons are overlooking that these are the Yankees. If it was the Brewers or Pirates or even the Phillies or Dodgers I’d agree, but this is the Yankees. Things won’t always go in their direction and they’ll even have some down years and some of them will even be in a row, but I would never bet on the Cubs winning more games than the Yankees over any span of years. I believe the smart thing to assume is that the Yankees will always win more games than the Cubs in any given year and will always win more over a span of years.

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  22. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    JonKneeV wrote:

    @ Myles:
    Exactly. If the two offers were the same, IMO this screams “Cubs had the highest offer and the Yankees matched it”.

    This is probably true, but how much does “the Cubs had the highest offer a day before he signed” really matter? I have no problem with what happened here. No reason to get angry or upset at the Cubs. They tried. It didn’t work out.

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  23. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    @ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:

    I agree with you about the Yankees. I don’t like the way they build their roster, and it seems like theres a lot of risk in how they’ve run their offseason, but this team has only missed the playoffs in 2008 and 2013. All the other years since the early 90’s, they went to the playoffs. In the AL East. That’s some serious winning.

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  24. GBTS

    I have little doubt Tanaka used the desperate Cubs to get NY or LA to up their offer, so I do hope somewhere down the road the Yankees choke on that extra $25 or $30 million we forced them to dish out so this whole pursuit isn’t a total bust.

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  25. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    Almora ranked 4th among outfield prospects. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/prospect-watch-mlbcoms-top-10-outfielders?ymd=20140122&content_id=66895860

    4. Albert Almora, Cubs: Scouts considered Almora one of the most advanced high school players in years, which helped him go sixth overall in the 2012 Draft and sign for $3.9 million. His outstanding instincts in all phases of the game may outshine his tools — but there’s nothing wrong with his tools. Almora should hit for high averages and solid power, and he’s a potential Gold Glove center fielder with a strong arm.

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  26. Mercurial Outfielder

    Akabari wrote:

    God dammit, I know I shouldn’t care, but this Tanaka stuff is making me super negative

    [img]http://cdn.na16.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/clark-the-cub-chicago-cubs.jpg[/img]

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  27. Suburban kid

    [OK]を、翻訳者と最後にもう一度。私はこのニュースについてスッキリ。私は正常に戻っ感じることになっている。カブス興奮し得ることは、物事の自然なリズムを混乱させる。誤った希望。楽観。ブルがらくた。我々は長期的な再構築と1男が一晩たわごとを変更するつもりはないことを覚えておく必要があるの真っ只中にある。性交面をそれを吸う。

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  28. WaLi

    @ Akabari:
    Me too. And I do blame the Cubs for fielding such an inept team that we can’t attract a quality free agent. The Cubs should be able to convince Tanaka that the Yankees fucking blow right now and he’d do better with the Cubs, but I doubt they could make that arguement with a straight face.

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  29. Author
    Myles

    If the Cubs don’t move I probably won’t attend a game for a long time. It’s really hard to support such a bad team in such a bad situation for so much money. They need to build a new stadium that probably won’t be much more expensive than this renovation + legal fees. This is fucking ridiculous.

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  30. Mercurial Outfielder

    I don’t see how the RTO can win this in court. They’ve basically been stealing cable for 30 years. They’ll be lucky not to get a vindictive judge that actually makes them pay by the end of this.

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  31. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    @ Myles:
    I’ve been a Cubs fan since I was a kid, but since I’m from NC (wgn was my path to fandom), I’ve never been to Wrigley field. And I’m certainly not going to plan a trip to Chicago to see such a shitty team. I live in Philly, so I see them once a year here, and can also go to DC, BALT, and Ny with ease to see them. I’ve never really understood this rooftop thing. Why don’t the Cubs just move out of the city? A suburb would likely assist in funding the stadium, and brand new stadiums make $$ for a few years. Given the $$ Ricketts was going to invest anyway, they could build a fantastic, state of the art stadium. I can’t imagine them having a hard time filling a kick-ass stadium with a good team. The team will be good in 1-2 years anyway based on what Theo is doing. I realize Wrigley is historical and all that shit, but I don’t understand it. A burb would give them the land for free, including parking. The Cubs can build whatever amenities around it they want. Ricketts should at least explore it more seriously as a means to build leverage against rooftops. The rooftop owners seem short-sighted to me; don’t they realize if they actually negotiated, they could maintain some form of partnership guaranteeing income for several more decades. If they keep this up, the relationship ends permenantly in 5 years when their contract expires. Seems very short-sighted to me.

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  32. Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:

    The Cubs should have pushed hard as soon as they got the Mayor’s office on their side. Rahm Emmanuel could probably have found a way to link them to Al Qaeda and lock them all up in Gitmo to resolve this (dying laughing).

    Seriously though, I’m blown away by how many people are surprised/pissed at this on twitter. This has been the obvious next step for fucking months now.

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  33. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
    Yep. Completely agree. I’m pissed because I saw this coming, however. But I think the Cubs did, too, and that’s why they doubled down on the Ganis statement. They have to feel pretty good about their chances in court and they are destroying the RTO in the PR battle.

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  34. Mucker

    @ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
    I’m with you Nate. I used to live in Chicago but live in MD now and I’ve been to Wrigley numerous times and the place is a fucking shit hole. I don’t understand why so many people advocate for Wrigley and it’s history when the only history Wrigley has is a history of losing. It’s like people get pissed off about moving from Wrigley because they feel they are supposed to because it’s a way of life. This team gets more and more easy to lose interest in and being that I can get every Nationals game for free, I think it might be time to start watching more Nats games.

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  35. Smokestack Lightning

    So…no Tanaka and the rooftop deal fell through? Fuck this day. I’m going back to yesterday. Shit was better then.

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  36. GBTS

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    It’s not “stealing cable” if you pay a nominal fee to Comcast that both parties agreed on.

    This will all come down to the language in the contract, whether the rights reserved in the contract prohibit the Cubs from making the renovatiobs as proposed. Probably something murky like whether their view is “substantially” or “meaningfully” diminished or something like that. That’ll be up to a judge. But I don’t see why the agreement itself wouldn’t be valid. It was a multi-million dollar deal made between two well-represented business entities at arms-length.

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  37. GBTS

    If I’m the Cubs I push hard for a judge to rescind the contract because it was negotiated by Kenney, a man with the intellectual faculties of a minor. (dying laughing)

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  38. Mucker

    Regarding the rooftop owners, was the deal done before or after Ricketts took over? If the Cubs move, are they still liable to the contract with the RTO?

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  39. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ GBTS:
    (dying laughing) Thanks for the insight. I think the Ganis comments are laying the groundwork for the Cubs’ position in court. I’m no lawyer, but that seems like a pretty compelling argument. The RTO have bitten the hand that feeds them too many times. I think they’re facing serious fan backlash, too, which could be more devastating to them than any legal battle. They were already trying to slough off tickets on Groupon last season; if it gets worse for them this season, and the bottom falls out of their revenue stream…

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  40. GBTS

    @ Mucker:
    I sincerely doubt it, but it would be really hilarious if the Cubs moved to Rosemont and the same Rooftop Association bought all the land past the outfield and started putting up new buildings. (dying laughing)

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  41. Smokestack Lightning

    Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

    They were already trying to slough off tickets on Groupon last season; if it gets worse for them this season, and the bottom falls out of their revenue stream…

    Those are some nice rooftops you got there. Shame if anything happened to them.

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  42. Aisle424

    Mucker wrote:

    Regarding the rooftop owners, was the deal done before or after Ricketts took over? If the Cubs move, are they still liable to the contract with the RTO?

    Before. In 2003 or 2004 I think. It runs out in 2023 or 2024. I can never remember which.

    But it was Crane. He of the recent 5-year contract extension.

    I hate everything.

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  43. Smokestack Lightning

    Phil Rogers tweeting on Tanaka:

    How serious were Cubs about Tanaka? Deadly serious. Haven’t confirmed this but the word is they went to $150 million. Likely runner-up.

    While desperation drove Yankees to 7-yr, $175-million commitment for Tanaka, he was a 1-man off-season for @Cubs. Pitching void remains.

    Though I believe he meant “+1 man offseason for Cubs” on that last one.

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  44. GBTS

    @ Mucker:
    Oh he definitely did. Any contract like this will include a clause stating it’s enforceable against all future assignees. The existence of the contract should have factored in to the sale price of the team.

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  45. Mercurial Outfielder

    Smokestack Lightning wrote:

    Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
    They were already trying to slough off tickets on Groupon last season; if it gets worse for them this season, and the bottom falls out of their revenue stream…

    Those are some nice rooftops you got there. Shame if anything happened to them.

    Exactly. The Cubs are winning the PR battle. Gut the RTO revenue stream, or at least knock a big hole in it, and it could limit their ability to litigate.

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  46. GBTS

    @ Rice Cube:
    I’m just saying – without having ever seen the contract – that it’s far more likely the fight will be over interpretation of the contract (i.e. do the Cubs current renovation plans, tailored somewhat to the rooftop assholes, slip through a crack somewhere in the language?) than a judge just saying “This is a bullshit contract” and ripping it up.

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  47. Like You Care

    Everyone gets 4-round mocks for their team today. The ones I remember are CHI, GB, MIN and GB. If you want another team, let me know.

    CHI:

    14 OT GREG ROBINSON AUBURN – The simulator finally caught up with Kony Ealy (he went 7th). Robinson was clearly the bpa here.
    51 OLB DEE FORD AUBURN – OLB, DE, whatever. Line him up outside an OT and let him fly into the backfield.
    82 S DEONE BUCANNON WASHINGTON STATE – The opposite of Conte against the run.
    113 DT DOMINIQUE EASLEY FLORIDA – Another clear bpa. Would have been the first DT chosen if not injured.

    This draft is a great example of why you don’t draft for need (unless it’s a huge need). In this simulation, CHI gets four top-40 talents. That’s how you build a great team.

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  48. Like You Care

    Maybe not about Ealy…he was available in the second for GB.

    21 ILB C.J. MOSLEY ALABAMA – Willis/Bowman-level potential.
    53 DE KONY EALY MISSOURI – Slightly less athletic Aldon Smith won’t last past 20.
    85 S AHMAD DIXON BAYLOR
    117 QB AARON MURRAY GEORGIA

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  49. Like You Care

    8 QB JOHNNY MANZIEL TEXAS A&M – He has an NFL skillset, but he must clean up his decision making.
    40 DE KONY EALY MISSOURI – This is getting out of hand…
    72 DT AARON DONALD PITTSBURGH – Easily bpa here.
    96 CB STANLEY JEAN- BAPTISTE NEBRASKA – New breed of CB.
    104 OT JAMES HURST UNC

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  50. Mucker

    @ Like You Care:
    I like Robinson but I don’t see the Bears using two straight 1sts on an offensive lineman. Bears need an upgrade at C and maybe RT. Mills played well as a rookie but he was beat often and gave up entirely too much pressure. But he can definitely improve so I can’t see the Bears drafting Robinson unless they don’t think Mills will get better. I think the Bears go defensive BPA because they can use an upgrade at every defensive position.

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  51. Like You Care

    They really need to update that database…

    @ mikeakaleroy:

    KC needs to try to turn that 1 into multiple Day 2 picks.

    23 CB DARQUEZE DENNARD MICHIGAN STATE – They run this card to the podium. My favorite CB in the last three drafts.
    87 S JIMMIE WARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS – Top 5 S prospect in the third is good value.
    120 WR MIKE DAVIS TEXAS – Deep threat is severely underrated at the moment.

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  52. Like You Care

    @ Mucker:

    I don’t either. That just happened to be the one draft where Kony Ealy went before CHI’s pick. I really think you could by a Bears Ealy jersey right now.

    Robinson was bpa by a wide margin when I ran that sim. I’m a believer that you should nearly always take bpa.

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  53. Mucker

    Ryno, what did you think of Marquis Goodwin’s rookie season? Did you follow at all? I saw some highlights and it looked like he made some nice plays.

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  54. SEO

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