The Cubs just completed a 9-game home stand against the Mets, Pirates and Astros. The Cubs entered the home stand 5 games below .500 and it was concluding the easiest part of their schedule. The Cubs needed to make up ground during this home stand because even if they play well after, it’s unlikely they can improve their record all that much. Instead, the Cubs won just 3 and their odds of reaching the postseason are sure to be below 1% after the games today.
The Cubs had a relatively easy April. The teams they played combined for a .480 winning percentage and a .475 projected winning percentage. May was a bit tougher, but April and May combined the teams they played had a winning percentage of .491 and a projected winning percentage of .488.
In June the Cubs play 10 games against teams that are currently playing .550 ball or better. They play 3 against the Cardinals beginning on Friday (.589), 4 with the Phillies (.618) and 3 with the Yankees (.566). They also have 4 against the Brewers (.545), 3 against the Giants (.537) and 3 against the Reds (.500). Overall, the June opponents have a combined winning percentage of .533. The projected winning percentage if .522. It’s without a doubt the team’s toughest month and it leads right up to the month where teams begin to decide whether or not they should be buyers or sellers.
The Cubs went 23-31 against .491 opponents (.488 projected). Even playing .500 in June would mean the Cubs played great baseball. Has this team at any point this year looked like it was capable of playing great baseball for any period longer than an inning or two? I haven’t seen it.
Things are easier in July, but the actual winning percentage of the Cubs opponents is still .509 though the projected winning percentage is .485. Immediately after the all-star break the Cubs open up a 7-game home stand against the Marlins (.585, .506) and Phillies (.618, .559). After 3 against Houston the Cubs play 6 vs the Brewers (.545, .513) and Braves (.589, .514). There are some games the Cubs can win. They play 4 against the Nationals (.426, .446) and have 6 other games they should win. Unfortunately though, those 6 games are against the Pirates and Astros and the Cubs just haven’t had very much success against them over the last couple seasons. Does anyone feel like the Cubs can dominate either of those teams (or the Nationals for that matter)? I don’t. The Cubs also finish the month with 3 against the Cardinals.
From a projected winning percentage standpoint, August is tougher than July though not exactly tough. The actual winning percentage of the opponents in August is .503 and the projected is .495. The month is actually tougher than you may think because the Cubs finish the month with 13 games against teams who currently have played no worse than .536 baseball. They play the Cardinals, Braves, Brewers and Giants. Also in August they play another series against the Braves and one against the Reds as well. Their easy series that bring down the totals? The Pirates and Astros.
September is fairly easy. The teams they play have played .486 ball (projected .489), but they do play 7 against Cincy. They play 3 against the Brewers and Cardinals. Those fucking Pirates and Astros show up again.
I expected this team to win somewhere between 78 and 80 games. I actually expected them to get off to a decent start considering the April schedule and would have thought they’d be a game or two above .500 at this point. They needed to be that much above .500 at the very least. Even at .500 at this point, or a game or two above, the Cubs would likely and will still likely go well below .500 the rest of the way. This is a team that is considerably worse than I was thinking. There are a number of reasons for this.
The injuries haven’t helped, but I also expected Carlos Pena and Aramis Ramirez to return to pre 2010 form. They haven’t. I expected Marlon Byrd to hit as he did last year. He hasn’t. I expected Geovany Soto to be good, but not as good as last season. He’s been more 2009 Geovany Soto than anything else. I expected the Cubs would be strong from the top four spots of their rotation. Instead, they’ve gotten some questionable performances from Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano. Matt Garza has been unbelievable, but has his ERA doesn’t represent how good he was before hitting the DL. Randy Wells hit the DL after one start.
This team hasn’t been that much fun to watch since the frustrating 2009 season. Brett Jackson will likely be up at some point. Maybe Trey McNutt too. Probably not much after that.
Comments
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIaORknS1Dk&t=1m21s
Aisle424Quote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Aisle424Quote Reply
What? His wRC+ is exactly what it was last year.
ACTQuote Reply
In other exciting news, it appears Yankee fans are stuffing the AL ballots.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]What? His wRC+ is exactly what it was last year.[/quote](dying laughing) shows what I know.
mb21Quote Reply
Wow. I had Marlon Byrd all wrong this season. I knew he had been a lot better than the complaints around here, but he’s been worth 1.4 fWAR (tied with Castro for best position player). He’s 2nd in rWAR at .8 (Fukudome is 1.7). So yeah, I was a dumbass for writing that part. Byrd has been exactly what we thought he was.
mb21Quote Reply
some of them my own
mb21Quote Reply
Just heard a caller on the radio say, “There are a lot of reasons people aren’t going out to watch the Cubs. Number one: the Cubs are the dumbest team in baseball.” (dying laughing)
There’s been a lot of discussion about the drop in attendance but I don’t think anyone around here has mentioned the #1 reason.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]Just heard a caller on the radio say, “There are a lot of reasons people aren’t going out to watch the Cubs. Number one: the Cubs are the dumbest team in baseball.” (dying laughing)
There’s been a lot of discussion about the drop in attendance but I don’t think anyone around here has mentioned the #1 reason.[/quote]
The caller speaks the truth.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I don’t know, last year they played better against good teams. So….I think we’re going all the way is what I’m saying.
JackoQuote Reply
[quote name=Jacko]I don’t know, last year they played better against good teams. So….I think we’re going all the way to the #1 draft pick next year is what I’m saying.[/quote]
YES.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2011-woba-by-batting-order/
Brad strikes again.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cubs players will now be wearing this patch on their left sleeve for the remainder of the season:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)[/quote]
You just gave me an epic brilliant idea Nate. Fun on facebook! W00t.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
When was the last time the Cubs had a manager as completely out of his depth as Quade? Bruce Kimm?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]When was the last time the Cubs had a manager as completely out of his depth as Quade? Bruce Kimm?[/quote]
I don’t recall Kimm being such a blowhard. His stint was so short and unremarkable that he really can’t compete with Cuey’s blatant ineptitude. When I think about a guy being out over his skis this far, I’m reminded of Terry Bevington on the other side of town.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]I don’t recall Kimm being such a blowhard. His stint was so short and unremarkable that he really can’t compete with Cuey’s blatant ineptitude. When I think about a guy being out over his skis this far, I’m reminded of Terry Bevington on the other side of town.[/quote]Oh, good comp.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
So the rest of this column is cheap-shotting Z, but this bit Rosenbloom is fire:
Ouchie.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15433375&partnerId=aw-6239067628272000972-996
He probably would have died a hero’s death at Wrigley. Of course, the ball would’ve been out of the yard, but y’know…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Vancouver scored as much as the Cubs today. But at least they won.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Vancouver scored as much as the Cubs today. But at least they won.[/quote]Maybe Sote, Los or Fuky should bitey someoney.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Maybe Sote, Los or Fuky should bitey someoney.[/quote]
I like your style, Merky.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Tidbits from Miles:
Really, Tom? “Nothing.” This dude is a Cub fan through-and-through.
Also,
Quoth Cuey:
I’m assuming we can fact-check that shit.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I think my online name is almost Quade nickname proof.
Foury? Aisley?
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I like your style, Merky.[/quote]Right back at ‘cha, Arsey
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I think my online name is almost Quade nickname proof.
Foury? Aisley?[/quote]Aisley (pronounced Eye-lee)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Right back at ‘cha, Arsey[/quote]
(dying laughing)
Arsey. Very nice.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think Nate has the completely Quade-proof handle.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I think Nate has the completely Quade-proof handle.[/quote]
Q would probably just call him “Blog” or “Calc”.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Q would probably just call him “Blog” or “Calc”.[/quote](dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Nate is obviously a Dougie.
mb21Quote Reply
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15436507
4:30 mark.
Hey, how come Cuey gets to eat dinner?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Except for the Byrd thing, this post is pretty much spot on. I think it needed to be said that just because things have gone really poorly for this team, doesn’t mean we al should have seen this coming. This team has endured a much worse start than I think almost any reasonable guess might’ve guessed they would. Doesn’t mean that this team could have been all that good, but this shitty start has undoubtedly sunk their ship already.
Not sure I’m prepared to cast any blame whatsoever on Quade, as it appears some people here already are, but I agree that Brad’s lastest post at FanGraphs was pretty enjoyable.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Maybe Sote, Los or Fuky should bitey someoney.[/quote]I call the big one bitey.
MishQuote Reply
I don’t blame Quade. He didn’t have a good team to start with and they’ve had a bunch of injuries. Not surprising they are where they are all things considered. If healthy this team was probably a game or two over .500 at this point and people think they’re contenders.
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t like Quade all that much, but I was listening to the radio this morning, and several people acted as if Ryne Sandberg would have this team running well; that he’d be cussing out Z for breaking his bat or he’d make Ramirez hit HRs. The lack of talent and real lack of an organizational direction are much more daunting problems, and not ones that can be fixed by fantastizing over another manager.
MishQuote Reply
I wasn’t a big fan of Sandberg managing this team for awhile, but once I saw the direction this organization was headed for I figured why not? I loved the guy as a player and maybe he becomes a good manager. But no, Sandberg would not have this team performing any better. Neither would Lou. Neither would any other manager. I do wonder if the Cubs didn’t hire Sandberg because they knew this team wouldn’t be very good and they’d have to fire him before they had a chance to contend.
mb21Quote Reply
Exactly. I wasn’t in favor of Quade being hired, but I won’t mind at all if he’s fired.
It would have sucked to see Sandberg’s return to Chicago ruined within two months of getting there.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
We talked about it last year, but there’s no doubt that fans would have turned on Sandberg at some point this season. It would have been even worse considering the hot stretch they were on to end the season under Quade. If the Cubs had the same record under Sandberg right now all we’d hear about is that they shouldn’t have fired Quade because they would have won it all.
mb21Quote Reply
Is it just me, or is this site now displayed in Times New Roman?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
SK ——————> one of OV Blog’s best customers.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
http://www.rotohardball.com/2011/6/2/2201783/ryan-dempster-and-xwhip
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]Is it just me, or is this site now displayed in Times New Roman?[/quote]It SHOULD just be you. It should be Arial. What browser and OS are you using?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]SK ——————> one of OV Blog’s best customers.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It SHOULD just be you. It should be Arial. What browser and OS are you using?[/quote]Aren’t those kind of personal questions to be asking one of your best customers?
If it’s just me, it’ll probably go away with a reboot. That shit can happen when your memory is low. I closed a bunch of apps and restarted my browser but it was still like that. If it’s still there after I reboot, I’ll let you know.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]So you’re going to be mad when we put all that stuff on sale?[/quote]I don’t think anyone else should be allowed to post or comment until they are as committed to this site as I am.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]I don’t think anyone else should be allowed to post or comment until they are as committed to this site as I am.[/quote]
You realize this would shut down the site, right?
MishQuote Reply
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=6617450
Interesting.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Watching SportsCenter at the mechanic and saw the Pittsburgh’s BABIP inning (dying laughing) No wonder Terry Collins is so pissed off.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]You realize this would shut down the site, right?[/quote]I agree.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]Aren’t those kind of personal questions to be asking one of your best customers?
If it’s just me, it’ll probably go away with a reboot. That shit can happen when your memory is low. I closed a bunch of apps and restarted my browser but it was still like that. If it’s still there after I reboot, I’ll let you know.[/quote]Thanks. This site does use typography files so it’s possible if your machine was using too much memory that it just went with the standard font. Let me know though.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Thanks. This site does use typography files so it’s possible if your machine was using too much memory that it just went with the standard font. Let me know though.[/quote]I just rebooted and it’s still there. Weird. It’s normal on my other PC and phone.
This one has XP Pro and Firefox 3.6.17.
I just tried it in IE and Chrome and they were fine, so I guess it is Firefox that is the problem.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Have you tried to clear the cache?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Have you tried to clear the cache?[/quote]Fuck you.
(it fixed it)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Have you tried to clear the cache?[/quote]What great customer service by mb-ie
WaLiQuote Reply
Just because people talk about what a moron Quade is it doesn’t mean he’s being blamed for this team sucking. The team sucks and he’s a dope but I don’t believe anyone around here has said it’s his fault they suck. I certainly don’t ascribe to any theory that would say you can’t criticize Quade because the team was going to be bad no matter what he does.
melissaQuote Reply
http://www.cubsstats.com/2011/06/is-it-okay-to-question-mike-quade-yet.html
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]Just because people talk about what a moron Quade is it doesn’t mean he’s being blamed for this team sucking. .[/quote]He will be soon. Maybe not by you, but by the fans and media.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I think it’s already started, SK. I generally get annoyed with the idea that the manager is responsible for either winning or losing. That being said, Cuey is a clown. I don’t agree with MO or Melissa that he’s out of his depths. It’s not that hard to manage. I’m sure Cuey knows a hell of a lot more about baseball than I’ll ever know. I have no doubt the man is capable of managing and if he was given a team with talent that team would win. I just think he’s a joke and he makes himself look like a dumbass because he keeps talking.
mb21Quote Reply
I think he’s in over his head but I don’t know if that is all his fault. Last year, he was probably getting good advice from Lou’s coaching staff. This year, he has his own guys and I have largely been unimpressed with just about all of them.
It is clear there was miscommunication on a number of hit-and-runs and Byrd’s reaction to the one that caught him off the bases leads me to believe it was a coaching error. Dernier was supposed to improve the baserunning performance and if anything, its gotten worse. I’ve never been a fan of bringing in Jaramillo for all that money and he obvioudly doesn’t preach patience at the plate. DeJesus is only marginally better than Waving Wendell over at 3rd. I don’t think I should even have to mention how much of a step down Riggins is from Rothschild.
I’m sure that’s not the entire reason they suck, but it sure as shit isn’t helping anything. This organization from top to bottom is a joke. And its not even a good joke. It’s a fucking knock-knock joke.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I think he’s in over his head but I don’t know if that is all his fault. Last year, he was probably getting good advice from Lou’s coaching staff. This year, he has his own guys and I have largely been unimpressed with just about all of them.
It is clear there was miscommunication on a number of hit-and-runs and Byrd’s reaction to the one that caught him off the bases leads me to believe it was a coaching error. Dernier was supposed to improve the baserunning performance and if anything, its gotten worse. I’ve never been a fan of bringing in Jaramillo for all that money and he obvioudly doesn’t preach patience at the plate. DeJesus is only marginally better than Waving Wendell over at 3rd. I don’t think I should even have to mention how much of a step down Riggins is from Rothschild.
I’m sure that’s not the entire reason they suck, but it sure as shit isn’t helping anything. This organization from top to bottom is a joke. And its not even a good joke. It’s a fucking knock-knock joke.[/quote]
Don’t knock knock-knock jokes.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]http://www.cubsstats.com/2011/06/is-it-okay-to-question-mike-quade-yet.html[/quote]I think it’s a little unfair to single out Quade for putting a weak hitter in the 2-hole. Most managers do that.
ACTQuote Reply
Riggins is a huge step down from Rothschild. There are probably only a few pitching coaches in the game who really improve the pitchers they work with over a long period of time and Rothschild was one of them. More strikeouts and fewer walks. Two of the three parts of pitching a pitcher has complete control over.
I think part of the reason the baserunning looks so bad is that the Cubs have terrible baserunners. They have for a long time. Darwin Barney is probably their best baserunner and it’s not like he’s Carl Crawford out there.
mb21Quote Reply
I agree with A424, the org from top to bottom is a joke including Quade. I don’t doubt he knows baseball but that doesn’t mean he can sufficiently adapt to the changing circumstances in the game. There was a shot of him in the dugout the other night giving signs to the catcher and you could tell he forgot to give a sign and then suddenly remembered. It was during Marmol’a meltdown. I’m not blaming him for players poor execution but he seems to be as poor at managing. Knowing the game doesn’t necessarily equip someone with the other necessary skills good managers seem to have.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I think it’s a little unfair to single out Quade for putting a weak hitter in the 2-hole. Most managers do that.[/quote]I agree. According to Brad’s own work the Cubs 2nd hitter is 6th best in the NL: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2011-woba-by-batting-order/
About league average from what I can tell.
mb21Quote Reply
New e-mail from the Cubs re: meet the management day. I put in bold something I thought strange:
Dear Wennington’s Gorilla Cock,
Thanks for reserving your place at the Cubs Season Ticket Holder Family Day.
We look forward to seeing you at Wrigley Field! The Season Ticket Holder Family Day is your chance to create once in a lifetime memories for you and your family at Wrigley Field. This special weekend will be your chance to run the bases, play catch in the outfield, take a few swings in the Batting Tunnel Arcade, tour the clubhouses and members-only PNC Club, and take pictures in front of the ivy on the outfield wall, among other activities. In addition, your Season Ticket Account Representative, as well as our front office staff, will be available for questions, comments and conversation.
Limited parking will be available in the Green Lot, Blue Lot and Purple Lot on Friday and Saturday. As always, we encourage you to use public transportation if possible. Please note: Due to Saturday’s Sausage Fest event on Sheffield Avenue, we suggest our Season Ticket Holders park in the Green Lot on that day.
Please use the tickets that you printed at home or are picking up at Will Call for admittance, just like you would for a Cubs game, and enter through Gate F.
Once inside the ballpark, we will have complimentary popcorn, Pepsi, water and hot dogs, as well as other discounted concession items.
Don’t forget to bring your baseball glove and your camera!
If you have questions, please contact your Season Ticket Account Representative.
We look forward to seeing you at Wrigley Field!
Colin Faulkner
Vice President, Ticket Sales & Service
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]
I think part of the reason the baserunning looks so bad is that the Cubs have terrible baserunners. They have for a long time. Darwin Barney is probably their best baserunner and it’s not like he’s Carl Crawford out there.[/quote]
I know you can’t teach speed, but can’t you teach not being a dumbass? Or at least being less of a dumbass?
And if this is the result of good coaching, then the players REALLY suck more than we thought.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]New e-mail from the Cubs re: meet the management day. I put in bold something I thought strange:
Dear Wennington’s Gorilla Cock,
Thanks for reserving your place at the Cubs Season Ticket Holder Family Day.
We look forward to seeing you at Wrigley Field! The Season Ticket Holder Family Day is your chance to create once in a lifetime memories for you and your family at Wrigley Field. This special weekend will be your chance to run the bases, play catch in the outfield, take a few swings in the Batting Tunnel Arcade, tour the clubhouses and members-only PNC Club, and take pictures in front of the ivy on the outfield wall, among other activities. In addition, your Season Ticket Account Representative, as well as our front office staff, will be available for questions, comments and conversation.
Limited parking will be available in the Green Lot, Blue Lot and Purple Lot on Friday and Saturday. As always, we encourage you to use public transportation if possible. Please note: Due to Saturday’s Sausage Fest event on Sheffield Avenue, we suggest our Season Ticket Holders park in the Green Lot on that day.
Please use the tickets that you printed at home or are picking up at Will Call for admittance, just like you would for a Cubs game, and enter through Gate F.
Once inside the ballpark, we will have complimentary popcorn, Pepsi, water and hot dogs, as well as other discounted concession items.
Don’t forget to bring your baseball glove and your camera!
If you have questions, please contact your Season Ticket Account Representative.
We look forward to seeing you at Wrigley Field!
Colin Faulkner
Vice President, Ticket Sales & Service[/quote]
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Aisle424Quote Reply
I agree, Melissa. I think the most important thing about managing is the ability to manage egos. There are different ways to do that. Dusty is able to do it by being the so-called player’s manager. Lou was able to do it by busting their asses. If I have any complaint about Quade it’s that he’s trying too hard to please the players and even the media and fans. I don’t think it ultimately matters, but it seems to me at least that he’s more interested in getting people to like him than he is in actually managing them. That might work with a certain team, but when you have a team that has young stars like Starlin Castro and aging and mostly useless veterans like Alfonso Soriano, I’m not sure it’s the best approach. I don’t really know though. I’ve never been in the position.
mb21Quote Reply
Stat nerd question for you knowledgeable folk, spurred from this quote from Calcaterra’s Q&A:
How come ROE is counted in wOBA but not OBP?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Glad the Cubs are at least admitting the sausage fest we all knew Wrigley cherished. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I know you can’t teach speed, but can’t you teach not being a dumbass? Or at least being less of a dumbass?
And if this is the result of good coaching, then the players REALLY suck more than we thought.[/quote]I was thinking about that the other day when we were talking about fundamentals and how this team just sucks at them. I had always thought those were things you can teach, but I don’t really think that’s true. I think we want it to be true, but those things, much like hitting baseballs far or the opposite direction, are very much a skill.
Consider the people you’ve surely worked with in your life who were otherwise good at what they did, but there was one or two simple things that they just didn’t or wouldn’t do. We’ve all known people like that. We are probably some of them. I love cooking and have become pretty good at it over the years, but I have to admit, jello, I fuck it up half the time. I no longer even bother making items that have gelatin in them. If I want something with gelatin, I’ll convince someone to do that part for me. I’ve given up. I don’t care. Everybody on the planet can make jello successfully 100% of the time except me. I don’t know why and like I said, I no longer care.
I think all people are like that. They have their strengths and weaknesses. They have the areas where they pay special attention and the areas they mostly ignore. They have certain things they want to improve at and are capable of doing so and things they don’t care at all about improving. Moises Alou’s baserunning is an example of that. Great hitter in his prime. Power, speed when he was younger, terrific outfielder at his best, but when it comes to tagging up or advancing an extra base, the man was clueless.
mb21Quote Reply
It’s funny you bring up Alou because he was always lauded as being such a smart baserunner, if not the fastest. I seem to remember more than one announcer saying that.
Aisle424Quote Reply
By the way, I hate that Rosenbloom and I share any similar thoughts at all. If I had had the time last night, I think a post very similar to this would have appeared here:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/rosenblog/chi-cubs-owner-tom-ricketts-plays-fans-for-stupid-20110602,0,1480359.column
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]
How come ROE is counted in wOBA but not OBP?[/quote]
ROE is a skill that affects production – OBP is just grandfathered into what it is, there are some other quirks with it, such as counting SFs in the denominator but not sac bunts.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/doug_glanville_times_on_base/
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]It’s funny you bring up Alou because he was always lauded as being such a smart baserunner, if not the fastest. I seem to remember more than one announcer saying that.[/quote]He, Barrett and Murton are probably the 3 worst baserunners I’ve seen in my life. I don’t know if that matches reality (baserunning metrics), but based on my own lying eyes, they were ridiculously awful.
I remember a game in Atlanta when Matt Murton was on 3rd base. Soft grounder to SS, Murton stays at 3rd. He could have easily scored. Passed ball, Murton stays at 3rd. Wild pitch, stays at 3rd. soft grounder, stays at 3rd. There was at least 4 times in that series he could have easily scored a run and didn’t. I don’t think I’ve ever seen any baserunning that was THAT bad. Bobby Cox could sent the man an invitation to score and he refused. Unbelievable.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]By the way, I hate that Rosenbloom and I share any similar thoughts at all. If I had had the time last night, I think a post very similar to this would have appeared here:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/rosenblog/chi-cubs-owner-tom-ricketts-plays-fans-for-stupid-20110602,0,1480359.column[/quote]
Didn’t you or someone here use the magic bean analogy?
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Stat nerd question for you knowledgeable folk, spurred from this quote from Calcaterra’s Q&A:
How come ROE is counted in wOBA but not OBP?[/quote]Like Mish said, OBP was an official stat long before wOBA became one. wOBA isn’t an official stat. I’ve mentioned it before, but if I calculate OBP myself I include ROE. I also subtract IBB from both the numerator and denominator.
mb21Quote Reply
I think MO mentioned that post. Rosenbloom is occasionally right. Even dumbasses are right every once in awhile. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Like Mish said, OBP was an official stat long before wOBA became one. wOBA isn’t an official stat. I’ve mentioned it before, but if I calculate OBP myself I include ROE. I also subtract IBB from both the numerator and denominator.[/quote]
Thanks Mish (Quade-fied already) and mb-y.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
What about the children!?!?!?
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0602-haugh-cubs-chicago–20110601,0,5942857.column
Chris DickersonQuote Reply
You can call me Mishy.
MishQuote Reply
I think he would be Mishy.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I’m slow today.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Mish]You can call me Mishy.[/quote]
It will be done, m’lord.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Aisley off to the beach, fuckies!
Aisle424Quote Reply
On the other hand, it’s worth noting MGL’s thoughts on ROE (e.g., in the comments of the linked post).There’s a lot of randomness in ROE data, and when you look at just 1 year’s worth of stats, the noise overwhelms the signal. Unless you have a very large sample size, OBA and wOBA may more accurately estimate a player’s skill if you leave ROE out.
ACTQuote Reply
MGL made a strong point, but doesn’t a batter’s GB/FB tendencies, as well as contact rates have a lot to do with how many times he’ll reach base on error? Maybe I’m wrong about Colvin, but he seems to be an extreme fly ball hitter and obviously strikes out a lot. Castro is an extreme groundball hitter who rarely strikes out. Don’t we want to give Castro credit for the ability to reach base more often because of an error?
mb21Quote Reply
I mean, if we know Castro is going to ROE more often than Colvin, it seems that value should be included.
mb21Quote Reply
Dunno if that’s linked thru the Tango post I put above but here is a message board conversation on ROE I recently enjoyed:
MishQuote Reply
http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?61796-Reached-on-Error
MishQuote Reply
Probably, but there’s no guarantee that 1 year’s worth of data will reflect this difference in skill (both had a score of 0 for ROE in 2010, e.g.). Anyway, I’m not so much defending MGL’s viewpoint as I am explaining it. This is an issue where researchers are divided in opinion.
ACTQuote Reply
Chris Carpy got demoted to Tennessee Smokies. Didn’t know that. Jay Jackson with 7 IP 1 R 1 BB 6 H. Clevenger got a start at 1B for the Smokies, hit a HR. BJax still struggling since his return (1 hit). Lake struggling with his call-up to Tennessee as well.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Oh, and you can call me Tsuey (kinda like chop suey). In fact, you can just call me Chop Tsuey. That seems Quade-esk.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]Oh, and you can call me Tsuey (kinda like chop suey). In fact, you can just call me Chop Tsuey. That seems Quade-esk.[/quote]
I think the Quade-fication algorithm has a cap at two syllables. So Tsuey it is!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think the Quade-fication algorithm has a cap at two syllables. So Tsuey it is![/quote]It’s more complicated than that. He could possibly also be deemed “Tsue”.
If Byrd weren’t hurt, we could have a lineup of Star, Bar, Mar, Car, ……
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]It’s more complicated than that. He could possibly also be deemed “Tsue”.
If Byrd weren’t hurt, we could have a lineup of Star, Bar, Mar, Car, ……[/quote]
False.
Carlos Pee-nya is currently “Los” (morbidly chortling)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The official snack of the top of Quade’s order
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]False.
Carlos Pee-nya is currently “Los” (morbidly chortling)[/quote]Yeah, I think Barney is “Barn” and I don’t know what Byrd’s Quadename is.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]Oh, and you can call me Tsuey (kinda like chop suey). In fact, you can just call me Chop Tsuey. That seems Cuey-esky.[/quote].
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]Yeah, I think Barney is “Barn” and I don’t know what Byrd’s Quadename is.[/quote]I assume all players are nicknamed Dougie unless otherwise noted.
mb21Quote Reply
“Cuey-esky” sounds like Yuni Betancourt’s evil twin.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
One of you do this one?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsELQmqZwAw&feature=player_embedded
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]One of you do this one?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsELQmqZwAw&feature=player_embedded%5B/quote%5D
Nice!!!
Aaron_BabbQuote Reply
What’s up, aaron? It’s been a long time.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Chris Dickerson]What about the children!?!?!?
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0602-haugh-cubs-chicago–20110601,0,5942857.column%5B/quote%5D
Any idea what the bizarre Seiney reference would be?
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]What? His wRC+ is exactly what it was last year.[/quote]I think MB meant using his bat instead of his face to hit the ball.
The WreckardQuote Reply
For the record, I don’t blame Quade for how this season has gone. There are a myriad of factors, of which he is a minor one. But I do think the man is a fucking stooge and a blowhard, and I think he’s in over his head at this point. The club he got handed last season basically ran itself. Lou had weathered the storms with them, and they were vets that knew how to close out a season. Now that Quade is actually being called upon to do something, however, he just looks progressively more incompetent. And the fact that he just won’t stop talking and saying stupid things doesn’t do much to improve my perception of him.
I wasn’t a Sandeberg guy, either, so it’s not like I’m thinking someone else would have done better. But I’m pretty sure someone else wouldn’t have plugged a 2B into LF with 3 capable OF sitting the bench. Dolan made a good point about that, namely that given Dewitt’s age (25) Quade might be trying to convert DeWitt into a super-utility guy and get some value from him before he’s too old. Fair point. Two problems: (1) DeWitt is never going to have the bat to man a corner OF spot in the NL, even as a part timer and (2) then even calling up three OF is stupid. Get an extra bullpen arm or a backup 1B up here, then, and leave Colvin in AAA to get AB. But the latter is clearly on Hendry, not Quade. But in both cases, there are things that are plainly apparent, things a big-league manager ought to notice, and these things appear entirely opaque to Quade. Moreover, with the apparently hopeless coaching staff Quade chose, his odd pitching staff management, innumerable lineups, and IF in the OF stuff, it just looks to the untrained eye like Quade is tossing shit at a wall and hoping some of it sticks. There’s no rhyme or reason to any of it that I can see, or that he seems to be able to communicate.
With as much as this chrome-domed asshat runs his gob, you’d think some semblance of a managerial philosophy would fall out at some point. I’m very alarmed that it hasn’t. He really seems to have no ideas past well-worn clichés about “gamers” and effort, & therefore, etc.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
David Haugh is a fucking moron.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Josh Harrison is currently playing for the Pirates (and he’s pissed that he doesn’t get the brandon guyer treatment from acb).
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]Josh Harrison is currently playing for the Pirates (and he’s pissed that he doesn’t get the brandon guyer treatment from acb).[/quote]At ACB, we were nothing if not wildly disappointing.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I still don’t really understand the argument regarding DeWitt. Make an argument that there was clearly a better option to play in LF. I’ve looked at all the information and one can’t be made. We might say it’s a tossup between DeWitt and Colvin and that Colvin should be playing, but by no means whatsoever can you criticize a manager for not making a decision that results in the same thing. You also can’t criticize him for not going with lesser players who have zero chance of an MLB future.
I guess I just don’t understand that argument. It’s a decision that I’m certain 29 other managers make because DeWitt was the best option available.
As for converting him into a utility player, that’s a silly idea. The defensive spectrum tells us if a player can play 2nd, he can play 3rd, CF, LF, RF and 1B. A good defensive 2nd baseman could play SS. DeWitt is not a good defensive 2nd baseman though. We’ve known for 30+ years now that a player like DeWitt can play every position except SS and C. Why are we criticizing Quade for not acting like it’s the 1960s or early 1970s?
I agree Quade has acted like a stooge, but he did what the right thing in that situation.
mb21Quote Reply
I want the best players playing most of the time and I couldn’t care less what their natural position is. If DeWitt is an average fielder at 2nd, he’s probably close to 10 runs above average in LF. The sad fact about this is that Blake fucking DeWitt should be playing LF over Alfonso Soriano.
mb21Quote Reply
I also don’t understand how you can be upset DeWitt plays in LF and not be upset when Soriano does. I could easily argue that Colvin is better. I could argue that Brad Snyder is as good and that Tony Campana may be as well. i can’t do any of that with regards to DeWitt.
mb21Quote Reply
We should trade Tony Campana for Bryce Harper + fillers.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]We should trade Tony Campana for Bryce Harper + Strasbrug.[/quote].
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I want the best players playing most of the time and I couldn’t care less what their natural position is. If DeWitt is an average fielder at 2nd, he’s probably close to 10 runs above average in LF. The sad fact about this is that Blake fucking DeWitt should be playing LF over Alfonso Soriano.[/quote]DeWitt has looked terrible out there. Just. Awful. [quote name=mb21]I still don’t really understand the argument regarding DeWitt. Make an argument that there was clearly a better option to play in LF. I’ve looked at all the information and one can’t be made. We might say it’s a tossup between DeWitt and Colvin and that Colvin should be playing, but by no means whatsoever can you criticize a manager for not making a decision that results in the same thing. You also can’t criticize him for not going with lesser players who have zero chance of an MLB future.
I guess I just don’t understand that argument. It’s a decision that I’m certain 29 other managers make because DeWitt was the best option available.
As for converting him into a utility player, that’s a silly idea. The defensive spectrum tells us if a player can play 2nd, he can play 3rd, CF, LF, RF and 1B. A good defensive 2nd baseman could play SS. DeWitt is not a good defensive 2nd baseman though. We’ve known for 30+ years now that a player like DeWitt can play every position except SS and C. Why are we criticizing Quade for not acting like it’s the 1960s or early 1970s?
I agree Quade has acted like a stooge, but he did what the right thing in that situation.[/quote]Here’s the argument, plain and simple:
They’ve invested a 1st round pick in Colvin. That’s a significant investment. They’ve gone into the season with the expectation (flawed on my view, but their stated view) that Colvin was a future starter in the Cubs OF. It’s a position you yourself defended at points last season and during ST. A lot is riding on finding out what they have in Colvin. Granted, it’ likely what they have is a 4th OF and they blew that pick. But they have to find out. It’s not about doing what’s best right now to win games; it’s about doing what’s best for the org in the long term. And what’s best for the org int he long term is playing Tyler Colvin while Soriano is out. If Colvin figures things out (remember that it took him a while in the minors), the the Cubs have a cheap everyday OF and can cut ties with Soriano; if Colvin doesn’t pan out, then the Cubs know that’s a position they have to fill. DeWitt is not the solution to that problem, for two simple reasons: right now Colvin appears the better defender. DeWitt looks utterly lost out there. And at least Colvin has the power to play the position in the NL. DeWitt is punchless. Theoretically and in the short-term, Quade made an at least defensible decision. Practically and in the long run, Quade made a entirely indefensible decision.
Lest we forget, he also put DeWitt out there over Snyder and Montanez. I’m not aware of their defensive capabilities, but both were hitting well when called up.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I also don’t understand how you can be upset DeWitt plays in LF and not be upset when Soriano does. I could easily argue that Colvin is better. I could argue that Brad Snyder is as good and that Tony Campana may be as well. i can’t do any of that with regards to DeWitt.[/quote]I hate having Soriano out there now. When he comes back, he should be benched, and Colvin should play. Period.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]We should trade Tony Campana for Bryce Harper + fillers.[/quote]Why? There’s nothing wrong with this club. Just injuries.
/Ricketts’d
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
i love the idea that if you take an anger management course you are forbidden from every being angry again.
Chicago is a weird fucking town
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I still don’t really understand the argument regarding DeWitt. Make an argument that there was clearly a better option to play in LF. [/quote]
To me, it’s just a good excuse to get him some regular at bats to see what you’ve got. You can’t bench Barney, because he’s a genuine ROY candidate right now (due to an exceptionally week rookie class) and is hitting well. You can’t play him at third, because Aramis Ramirez’s corpse is buried there.
So you play him in left. Honestly, if he doesn’t hit this year he’s going to get DFA’d in the off season – he’s due for a raise to at least a couple million, and given our relative depth at the 2nd base position he becomes pretty expendible. And why not play him there? Colvin can’t hit anything this year, and the rest of the options are 29-year-old roster fodder who have no future in the bigs.
The WreckardQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]i love the idea that if you take an anger management course you are forbidden from every being angry again.
Chicago is a weird fucking town[/quote]The sports media here make the White House press corps look like Nobel Laureates.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
there is no reason to have DeWitt play. There should never be a day where Colvin and Campana aren’t starting in the OF. Ever. DeWitt will never be a long term fixture around here.
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=The Wreckard]To me, it’s just a good excuse to get him some regular at bats to see what you’ve got. You can’t bench Barney, because he’s a genuine ROY candidate right now (due to an exceptionally week rookie class) and is hitting well. You can’t play him at third, because Aramis Ramirez’s corpse is buried there.
So you play him in left. Honestly, if he doesn’t hit this year he’s going to get DFA’d in the off season – he’s due for a raise to at least a couple million, and given our relative depth at the 2nd base position he becomes pretty expendible. And why not play him there? Colvin can’t hit anything this year, and the rest of the options are 29-year-old roster fodder who have no future in the bigs.[/quote]In 1029 MLB PA, DeWitt has hit .260/.332/.380. I’m pretty sure we have a good idea what the Cubs have there.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]there is no reason to have DeWitt play. There should never be a day where Colvin and Campana aren’t starting in the OF. Ever. DeWitt will never be a long term fixture around here.[/quote]To be fair, DeWitt is the same age as Colvin. But he’s got over 1000 big league PA, and has never OPS’d over .728. He’s Theriot.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Personally, I’d platoon DeWitt and Barney at second. That probably wouldn’t endear me to the fans, but Barn is only hitting well if you look at batting average and ignore everything else.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Personally, I’d platoon DeWitt and Barney at second. That probably wouldn’t endear me to the fans, but Barn is only hitting well if you look at batting average and ignore everything else.[/quote]Not a bad idea. Brenly would have an aneurysm, though. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]For the record, I don’t blame Quade for how this season has gone. [/quote]
I agree with all that. He’s an awful manager, but even an awful manager really doesn’t influence the outcome that much. I mean honestly, the marginal difference between, say, trotting Blake Dewitt out there instead of Campana, or starting Russell instead of whoever else probably isn’t big enough to make more than a 1-2 win difference.
This was a mediocre team to begin with, one that’s been decimated by injuries. You can’t lose 3 of your starting 5 pitchers, and two of your better position players when you’re odds of contending are so slim to begin with and expect to come out ahead. Not with our lack of real depth.
The WreckardQuote Reply
[quote name=The Wreckard]I agree with all that. He’s an awful manager, but even an awful manager really doesn’t influence the outcome that much. I mean honestly, the marginal difference between, say, trotting Blake Dewitt out there instead of Campana, or starting Russell instead of whoever else probably isn’t big enough to make more than a 1-2 win difference.
This was a mediocre team to begin with, one that’s been decimated by injuries. You can’t lose 3 of your starting 5 pitchers, and two of your better position players when you’re odds of contending are so slim to begin with and expect to come out ahead. Not with our lack of real depth.[/quote]Yeah, there’s no reason to hang this mess on him. He’s just part of what makes it so unbearable.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
But, but, BUT MO, we can give Dewey a Jose Bautista steroid concoction.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]But, but, BUT MO, we can give Dewey a Jose Bautista steroid concoction.[/quote](dying laughing), it’s amazing to me that sportswriters who are so quick to bend a knee to Selig for “fixing” the PED issue (that he also presided over…) can in the same breath indict anyone who has a statistically aberrant season or two for using these same PEDs that are supposedly eradicated by the grand commissioner.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
so this douche i know from facebook has talked a big game for years about being a screenwriter despite the fact that he is 30 and in community college and is a world class idiot.
I found his screenplay posted online today. Its sooooo bad.
dylanjQuote Reply
Rich Hill ——> season done
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yeah, there’s no reason to hang this mess on him. He’s just part of what makes it so unbearable.[/quote]Yup. But as we’re now solidly in the mode of playing for next year, his role may be even more important than it was when we were ostensibly in the race. If he leaves Colvin on the bench in favor of Soriano, that’s an issue, and not one I can hang on Hendry. JMO, if Hendry has to protect young players from his manager by sending them to AAA because that’s the only way they’ll get conistent burn, the real problem is the fucking cueball.
uncle daveQuote Reply
[quote name=uncle dave]Yup. But as we’re now solidly in the mode of playing for next year, his role may be even more important than it was when we were ostensibly in the race. If he leaves Colvin on the bench in favor of Soriano, that’s an issue, and not one I can hang on Hendry. JMO, if Hendry has to protect young players from his manager by sending them to AAA because that’s the only way they’ll get conistent burn, the real problem is the fucking cueball.[/quote]I think Quade will do whatever Jim tells him to do. I think MB has nailed Quade’s reasoning for playing DeWitt. But that’s exactly the problem. Quade is playing for the short term, to win games and save his hide.
Right now, anyway.
But I’d be willing to bet that if Jim told him the heat was off, and to play the “kids,” Quade would do it in a second.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]so this douche i know from facebook has talked a big game for years about being a screenwriter despite the fact that he is 30 and in community college and is a world class idiot.
I found his screenplay posted online today. Its sooooo bad.[/quote]
/obligatory
BerseliusQuote Reply
Postcards in the River will never win an oscar.
And the Cubs will never win a WS
dylanjQuote Reply
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]
/obligatory[/quote]
Where is Ryno BTW?
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Where is Ryno BTW?[/quote]www.whereisryno.com
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Not a bad idea. Brenly would have an aneurysm, though. (dying laughing)[/quote]
Now we have two reasons.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]www.whereisryno.com[/quote]One of these days, one those memeURLs is going to be a real site. (dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Now we have two reasons.[/quote]Oh, indeed.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]so this douche i know from facebook has talked a big game for years about being a screenwriter despite the fact that he is 30 and in community college and is a world class idiot.
I found his screenplay posted online today. Its sooooo bad.[/quote]
You found my screenplay?
Aisle424Quote Reply
double post
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Soooo wasn’t MB supposed to do a trade value post on Soto last night?
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Now we have two or two hundred and eighty eight reasons.[/quote]
.
WaLiQuote Reply
I was going to ask “is the rest of the thread gonna be meme’d” but that would just be URL meme’d.
MishQuote Reply
http://www.whatisthememesaturationpointforablog.com
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]www.whatisthememesaturationpointforablog.com[/quote]+1 Rec’d LSA NAMBLA
MishQuote Reply
Link is broken.
WaLiQuote Reply
Like Zambrano’s bat
WaLiQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/06/02/picture-of-the-day-braves-reliever-peter-moylan-and-his-fiancee-model-black-dresses/
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]Like Zambrano’s bat[/quote]
Which is a major story.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Which is a great story, compelling and rich.[/quote].
MishQuote Reply
holy fuck a writer and a story have never converged so perfectly in the history of pseudo journalism
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/6/2/2203281/punt-this
8volumesthickQuote Reply
Apparently Darin Erstad’s baseball career is only known for striking out against Z in his no-hitter. not anything else in his near 30 fWAR career.
As an aside, TZ LOVES Erstad. Has him at +59 between 1999 and 2000. In 2000, he posted a .411 wOBA and +29 TZ. (8.8 fWAR)
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=8volumesthick]holy fuck a writer and a story have never converged so perfectly in the history of pseudo journalism
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/6/2/2203281/punt-this%5B/quote%5D
WTF is that piece of garbage. Was he trying to be clever? The end makes less sense than most of his writing…
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
[quote name=8volumesthick]holy fuck a writer and a story have never converged so perfectly in the history of pseudo journalism
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/6/2/2203281/punt-this%5B/quote%5D
I love how Yellon makes it sound like Erstad was still punting for Nebraska fourteen years later (dying laughing). Sentence construction FTL
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]. If I have any complaint about Quade it’s that he’s trying too hard to please the players and even the media and fans. I don’t think it ultimately matters, but it seems to me at least that he’s more interested in getting people to like him than he is in actually managing them.[/quote]
Completely agree, this team was shit to begin with and they have just been shitier then the shit we expected them to be. However, he seems to go out of his way to please and get people to like him and that doesn’t work. There are times when a call needs to be made that will benefit some at the expense of others and you can’t make everyone happy. I am glad Sandberg didn’t have to endure this mess.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I think Quade will do whatever Jim tells him to do. I think MB has nailed Quade’s reasoning for playing DeWitt. But that’s exactly the problem. Quade is playing for the short term, to win games and save his hide. [/quote]
Jim’s whole offseason went from not being bad to WTF with the Garza trade. That made it clear he was thinking short term only. He dug this hole and can’t sell anyone now on the future, cause he shipped off a nice chunk of it. Quade and Jim both have to be very worried about keeping their jobs and are both thinking short term. They need a fire sale and to switch to a 13 man pitching staff.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I love how Yellon makes it sound like Erstad was still punting for Nebraska fourteen years later (dying laughing). Sentence construction FTL[/quote]Yep, that was headscratchingly stoopid.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Bubba Biscuit] Quade and Jim both have to be very worried about keeping their jobs and are both thinking short term. [/quote]Why? The team’s fine. Just injuries.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=8volumesthick]holy fuck a writer and a story have never converged so perfectly in the history of pseudo journalism
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/6/2/2203281/punt-this%5B/quote%5D
I had to read that several times to try to understand it then my head exploded
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]Why? The team’s fine. Just injuries.[/quote]Maybe the fans that aren’t buying tickets and showing up are just injured too. I could see Tom saying, “Everything’s fine, the bleachers wouldn’t be that empty normally, but a lot of our team and our fans are on the DL.”
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
Okay, I didn’t want to admit I didn’t get Al’s last paragraph because I figure it’s end-of-day brain stoppage, but I’ll throw my lot in with y’all saying that I didn’t get whatever punchline he set up.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Bubba Biscuit]Maybe the fans that aren’t buying tickets and showing up are just injured too.[/quote]
Just because they’re too injured to go to a Yankees or Phillies game doesn’t mean they’re too injured to go to other games.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Just because they’re too injured to go to a Yankees or Phillies game doesn’t mean they’re too injured to go to other games.[/quote]
I’m too hurt to go to Wrigley but I’ll be going to the game tomorrow and Saturday.
WaLiQuote Reply
No team is just hanging it up right now. As much as we may want the Cubs to play young guys and forget about this season, it ain’t happening. It won’t happen with other teams have invested money in free agents either. It’s just not reality. Also, why do we know more about DeWitt even though Colvin has had over 2000 professional plate appearances?
I argued Colvin should be the starter if the Cubs had a fire sale. I argued you may as well see if the off chance exists that he can hit like he did last season. I also understood and admitted many times he’s likely no better than a 4th outfielder and maybe not even that. We know what Tyler Colvin is every bit as much as we know what Blake DeWitt is.
If Blake DeWitt starts to play over someone who actually matters to this organization I’ll care. If someone like Brett Jackson comes up and is sitting the bench in favor of DeWitt, I’ll be mad. I don’t give a fuck if DeWitt plays over any other player on this team other than Castro. None of them are going to be a part of this team when it contends.
mb21Quote Reply
Maybe Jimbo and Quade think that, but I’m not sure it’s the case. I don’t think Ricketts can get rid of Quade with getting rid of Hendry, and he can’t get rid of Hendry and Quade without getting rid of Crane Kenney, and he’s not going to get rid of Crane Kenney.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]Soooo wasn’t MB supposed to do a trade value post on Soto last night?[/quote]Thanks. I forgot about that. I had written a bunch the last couple days on Tressell’s resignation and just forgot about it.
mb21Quote Reply
The weather is too hot for me to go to a baseball game.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
(dying laughing) What does this mean??
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]No team is just hanging it up right now. As much as we may want the Cubs to play young guys and forget about this season, it ain’t happening. It won’t happen with other teams have invested money in free agents either. It’s just not reality. Also, why do we know more about DeWitt even though Colvin has had over 2000 professional plate appearances?
I argued Colvin should be the starter if the Cubs had a fire sale. I argued you may as well see if the off chance exists that he can hit like he did last season. I also understood and admitted many times he’s likely no better than a 4th outfielder and maybe not even that. We know what Tyler Colvin is every bit as much as we know what Blake DeWitt is.
If Blake DeWitt starts to play over someone who actually matters to this organization I’ll care. If someone like Brett Jackson comes up and is sitting the bench in favor of DeWitt, I’ll be mad. I don’t give a fuck if DeWitt plays over any other player on this team other than Castro. None of them are going to be a part of this team when it contends.[/quote]This I agree with. I just see no point at all in playing DeWitt when they’ve been handed a golden opportunity to let Colvin sink or swim. But it matters little, I suppose. DeWitt is bad, and I don’t expect Colvin will ever be much better, even if he profiles as the better corner OF. Maybe I’m just mad about this team repeatedly shoving in my face the fact that they think they are still in it.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami](dying laughing) What does this mean??[/quote]
I once had a philosophy professor in college who used to talk about the idea in the study of language that everyday and in every language words are put together in entirely new ways. Yellon must have had the same professor.
The incongruity is that my professor meant that it was a great part of studying language.
8volumesthickQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami](dying laughing) What does this mean??[/quote]Okay, I think I figured it out.
He’ll need to remember to tell his players to get hits – Obviously, his players will need to get hits. They are baseball players. Self – explanatory
not get hit Remember when the insightful Al told us he played football? Maybe he got hit when he played football. But wait, didn’t he say he was a punter? There goes that idea.
or get no-hit That story where Al said he was punting and getting no-hit by Zambrano, yeah that one. This is in reference to that. Since he was on a team that was no-hit once, he needs to tell his players not to get no-hit. Luckily he has that experience.
Confusing, but then, Erstad is currently Nebraska’s hitting coach. Wasn’t that the point of the story?
WaLiQuote Reply
Because 1000 of DeWitt’s 3500+ professional PA are at the MLB level?
Also, DeWitt’s MiLB slash line: .277/.337/.443 in 2555 PA. That’s pretty close to his MLB line of .260/.332/.380 in 1092 PA. We know what he is. He’s Ryan Theriot-lite.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Riggins needs to tell his pitchers to throw, not get thrown out or throw the game. Confusing, but then, Riggins is the Cubs throwing(?) coach.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Maybe Jimbo and Quade think that, but I’m not sure it’s the case. I don’t think Ricketts can get rid of Quade with getting rid of Hendry, and he can’t get rid of Hendry and Quade without getting rid of Crane Kenney, and he’s not going to get rid of Crane Kenney.[/quote]I don’t think Kenney figures in that equation. He didn’t hire Hendry. He doesn’t seem to have any responsibility for baseball-related stuff since the team was sold.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Adam Dunn still has 0 hits vs. LHP. So fucking glad the Cubs did not hand a contract to that guy. Can you imagine a guy whose bat is in the same decline as Soriano’s, but with even worse defense on this team? (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]I don’t think Kenney figures in that equation. He didn’t hire Hendry. He doesn’t seem to have any responsibility for baseball-related stuff since the team was sold.[/quote]I’m of the mind that Hendry is only here still because of Kenney.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]This I agree with. I just see no point at all in playing DeWitt when they’ve been handed a golden opportunity to let Colvin sink or swim. But it matters little, I suppose. DeWitt is bad, and I don’t expect Colvin will ever be much better, even if he profiles as the better corner OF. Maybe I’m just mad about this team repeatedly shoving in my face the fact that they think they are still in it.[/quote]
I think this is actually simple. DeWitt is arbitration eligible this offseason, Colvin isn’t. Figure out for certain what you have in DeWitt now. This way they can know if he is someone to try to trade this season, if he should be looked at as a potential 3B next season, or if you should not offer him arbitration when it comes time.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
Riggins needs to tell his pitchers to pitch, not pitch a tent or slip on the pitch. Confusing, but then, Riggins is the Cubs pitching coach.
/better one
jtsunamiQuote Reply
2555 MiLB PA: .270/.337/.443
1092 MLB PA: .260/.332/.380
What more do the Cubs need to find out about Blake DeWitt? How many more times he can fall down in LF? (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]Riggins needs to tell his pitchers to pitch, not pitch a tent or slip on the pitch. Confusing, but then, Riggins is the Cubs pitching coach.
/better one[/quote]Okay, but who owns the Cubs?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]I don’t think Kenney figures in that equation. He didn’t hire Hendry. He doesn’t seem to have any responsibility for baseball-related stuff since the team was sold.[/quote]
I’ll agree with that. But Hendry is tied to Wilkens and pretty much the rest of the baseball operations staff. If Hendry gets fired, the whole front office is getting fired and I don’t think Ricketts has the stones or the ability to start over from scratch with someone new.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’m of the mind that Hendry is only here still because of Kenney.[/quote]Really? I think the only reason Kenney is still here is because his background as a corporate lawyer for a Chicago-based Fortune 500 company means he has even better connections than Ricketts when it comes to soliciting corporate sponsors.
I haven’t seen him quoted on anything baseball related since the priest in the dugout thing. All he’s worked on is sponsors and the ST site deal.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
As for the hot streaks Montanez (isn’t he like 45 years old?) and Snyder, we know from The Book that hot streaks are irrelevant when considering future production.
A hot streak is what led to Neifi Perez being a Cub for so long. It’s what led to Gary Gaetti being re-signed. It also led to Glendon Rusch being re-signed (and I’m sure many others). A cold streak led to Carlos Zambrano being demoted to the bullpen. It led to Koyie Hill making far too many starts. It led to Felix Pie not getting any playing time.
I’m not going to complain that Quade doesn’t play middle-aged players who were hot in the minor leagues because I did complain that Carlos Zambrano was sent to the bullpen. I did complain that Glendon Rusch was re-signed. I complained that Neifi Perez got so much playing time. I complained about Felix Pie and every other decision made based on hot/cold streaks since I’ve been doing this.
mb21Quote Reply
I think the best thing to do with DeWitt is what ACT suggest upthread: platoon him at 2B with Barney.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]Really? I think the only reason Kenney is still here is because his background as a corporate lawyer for a Chicago-based Fortune 500 company means he has even better connections than Ricketts when it comes to soliciting corporate sponsors.
I haven’t seen him quoted on anything baseball related since the priest in the dugout thing. All he’s worked on is sponsors and the ST site deal.[/quote]
He was at last year’s season ticket
suckerholder appreciation day. If he’s there again on Sat I’ll ask him, “Crane, why are you still here?”WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]As for the hot streaks Montanez (isn’t he like 45 years old?) and Snyder, we know from The Book that hot streaks are irrelevant when considering future production.
A hot streak is what led to Neifi Perez being a Cub for so long. It’s what led to Gary Gaetti being re-signed. It also led to Glendon Rusch being re-signed (and I’m sure many others). A cold streak led to Carlos Zambrano being demoted to the bullpen. It led to Koyie Hill making far too many starts. It led to Felix Pie not getting any playing time.
I’m not going to complain that Quade doesn’t play middle-aged players who were hot in the minor leagues because I did complain that Carlos Zambrano was sent to the bullpen. I did complain that Glendon Rusch was re-signed. I complained that Neifi Perez got so much playing time. I complained about Felix Pie and every other decision made based on hot/cold streaks since I’ve been doing this.[/quote]
Fair enough. But then consider that Quade is likely giving DeWitt starts because he’s been hitting lately (7-23, 3 XBH over the last two weeks).
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]This I agree with. I just see no point at all in playing DeWitt when they’ve been handed a golden opportunity to let Colvin sink or swim. But it matters little, I suppose. DeWitt is bad, and I don’t expect Colvin will ever be much better, even if he profiles as the better corner OF. Maybe I’m just mad about this team repeatedly shoving in my face the fact that they think they are still in it.[/quote]That’s annoying, but like I’ve said before, I really don’t believe that Hendry and Ricketts thought this team was a contender. They just had to sell it to the fans.
As for Quade, I honestly don’t have a problem with how he’s managed. My problem with him is that he says the dumbest things. I can’t help but think that implies he does stupid things while managing, but mostly the guy is just a laughingstock because he won’t shut his mouth and he says the most retarded things.
If I had a complaint about Quade it would that he has left some of his starters in too long, but that’s something I’ve grown used to complaining about. I also notice it when I watch other teams.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’ll agree with that. But Hendry is tied to Wilkens and pretty much the rest of the baseball operations staff. If Hendry gets fired, the whole front office is getting fired and I don’t think Ricketts has the stones or the ability to start over from scratch with someone new.[/quote]
That’s probably a big part of it, too.
[quote name=Suburban kid]Really? I think the only reason Kenney is still here is because his background as a corporate lawyer for a Chicago-based Fortune 500 company means he has even better connections than Ricketts when it comes to soliciting corporate sponsors.
I haven’t seen him quoted on anything baseball related since the priest in the dugout thing. All he’s worked on is sponsors and the ST site deal.[/quote]
Well, the beat guys would actually have to be seeking out quotes on baseball matters for that to happen. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
As much as we’ve slapped the Drunken Gym Teacher around for the Garza trade, WTF was Ricketts thinking when he okayed that deal after all the shit he’d been talking about building the MLB team through the farm system?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Fair enough. But then consider that Quade is likely giving DeWitt starts because he’s been hitting lately (7-23, 3 XBH over the last two weeks).[/quote]That may be why he’s playing. It also may be because he’s the best option. The outfield right now should be DeWitt, Colvin and Fukudome. If Baker was healthy it would have been him out there. I don’t really know why Quade made the decision. I imagine it was partly based on DeWitt hitting well of late and part just looking at the other options and laughing. If Brad Snyder and Luis Montanez are on your roster, it’s something to laugh about. Campana may have a future as a specialist and he’s certainly fun to watch, but it’s not like he’s a good hitter.
I’d be tempted to play Koyie Hill in LF over Snyder or Montanez. Not sure I’d actually do it unless I knew Hill could field the position, but those guys suck.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’ll agree with that. But Hendry is tied to Wilkens and pretty much the rest of the baseball operations staff. If Hendry gets fired, the whole front office is getting fired and I don’t think Ricketts has the stones or the ability to start over from scratch with someone new.[/quote]I don’t either.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]2555 MiLB PA: .270/.337/.443
1092 MLB PA: .260/.332/.380
What more do the Cubs need to find out about Blake DeWitt? How many more times he can fall down in LF? (dying laughing)[/quote]
Yes, him in LF looks crazy and he should not be in any plans to be any teams LF. However, gotta please everybody Cuey has “been told” to get him at bats and he can’t possibly hurt ARamy’s feelings. DeWitt is a 3B that relies on his glove providing value that his powerless for a 3B bat lacks. You know he has the glove there but can’t put him there right now, so you need to see just how much value his bat has, if any. Yes, that is lots of AB’s, but he is 25 and you would expect some progression. If he isn’t getting any better, or better by enough, you trade him or don’t re-sign him this offseason. Maybe they are getting him at bats to possibly move him? Some team might need a nice fielding 3B.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
Fair enough. After June 6, it should be Colvin–Jackson–Fukudome.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Fair enough. After June 6, it should be Colvin–Jackson–Fukudome.[/quote]
Agreed.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
Lou said something very telling recently. He worked for three different ownership groups in three and a half years in Chicago.
Hendry has had a similar experience. Although he has been GM for nine years now, he has had the following bosses during that time:
MacPhail
Fitzsimons
McDonough
Kenney
Ricketts
So although you would think there would be a lot of front office stability seeing as the GM has been the same for nine years, I believe Hendry has been jerked around throughout that time, and not just because of the Tribune sale and the team sale.
I think MacPhail was very hands on, Fitzsimons was very hands off, then McDonough was real hands on, then Kenney hands off for the most part (Zell’s stooge), and then Ricketts seems real hands on again.
How can this be stable for Hendry?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]How can this be stable for Hendry?[/quote]
Simple, have a plan. Tribune’s plan = pay too much to get good looking to drive up price for eventual sale of team. Different people involved, same plan.
Rickett’s plan = ??? Hendry says after Ricketts bought team, ok here was our plan. We paid too much to get this team to have a good run to up the price you paid for the team. You are now stuck in a really shitty situation that most rational people would have been able to deduce beforehand. We will get bad and expensive soon. We can sugarcoat, salvage future for now, and pray or we can go cheap, let kids develop, and hope it doesn’t last but 2 seasons before we turn things around.
He choose poorly.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
[quote name=Bubba Biscuit]Simple, have a plan. Tribune’s plan = pay too much to get good looking to drive up price for eventual sale of team. Different people involved, same plan.
Rickett’s plan = ??? Hendry says after Ricketts bought team, ok here was our plan. We paid too much to get this team to have a good run to up the price you paid for the team. You are now stuck in a really shitty situation that most rational people would have been able to deduce beforehand. We will get bad and expensive soon. We can sugarcoat, salvage future for now, and pray or we can go cheap, let kids develop, and hope it doesn’t last but 2 seasons before we turn things around.
He choose poorly.[/quote]Sure, that accounts for the last year or so. I guess my point would be that Hendry will soon be singled out by fans/media as a failure who had 10 years to get it right but didn’t. Whereas I think he was forced to operate in Let’s See What Happens mode pretty much the whole time. Also, sadly, you can’t fire Ricketts (unless your name is also Ricketts).
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Bubba Biscuit]Yes, him in LF looks crazy and he should not be in any plans to be any teams LF. However, gotta please everybody Cuey has “been told” to get him at bats and he can’t possibly hurt ARamy’s feelings. DeWitt is a 3B that relies on his glove providing value that his powerless for a 3B bat lacks. You know he has the glove there but can’t put him there right now, so you need to see just how much value his bat has, if any. Yes, that is lots of AB’s, but he is 25 and you would expect some progression. If he isn’t getting any better, or better by enough, you trade him or don’t re-sign him this offseason. Maybe they are getting him at bats to possibly move him? Some team might need a nice fielding 3B.[/quote]Or you could be really cynical about it and say they’re getting him ABs because he’s plan A through Z for the hole that will open up at third next year, while Colvin may or may not find a home in an outfield crowded by the contracts of Byrd and Soriano. (The best is yet to come, see what happens, etc.)
At this point I think they do have to run Aramis out there every day just in case he gets hot and suddenly re-acquires some sort of trade value, player option be damned. But I do agree with MO that if Blake DeWitt is the answer, the question is not fit for mixed company.
uncle daveQuote Reply
The problem is all the options right now that are good for this team require the front office to be honest with the fans and media. They haven’t been honest for fear of an empty Wrigley Field. Hopefully, with enough half-empty Wrigley Field games they will own up to it and move on, but I highly doubt it from this group.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
[quote name=uncle dave]Or you could be really cynical about it and say they’re getting him ABs because he’s plan A through Z for the hole that will open up at third next year, while Colvin may or may not find a home in an outfield crowded by the contracts of Byrd and Soriano. (The best is yet to come, see what happens, etc.)
At this point I think they do have to run Aramis out there every day just in case he gets hot and suddenly re-acquires some sort of trade value, player option be damned. But I do agree with MO that if Blake DeWitt is the answer, the question is not fit for mixed company.[/quote]I don’t think any of them bu Colvin will be part of the team next year. Byrd is hurt bad, and once he proves his health, will be moved, either before the deadline or during the offseason. Soriano may not last the year before he is dealt or released.
The moves here are simple:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Bubba Biscuit]The problem is all the options right now that are good for this team require the front office to be honest with the fans and media. They haven’t been honest for fear of an empty Wrigley Field. Hopefully, with enough half-empty Wrigley Field games they will own up to it and move on, but I highly doubt it from this group.[/quote]Yeah. If that’s what we’re hoping for, it’s not gonna happen.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]Lou said something very telling recently. He worked for three different ownership groups in three and a half years in Chicago.
…
How can this be stable for Hendry?[/quote]
I mean, I guess. But that makes Lou and Jim different from virtually 0% of every working stiff out there. Most people get different bosses all the time.
Shit, 5 bosses in 9 years seems pretty easy.
Jim has been unlucky in some ways, but it seems like there’s been precious little he’s been unable to accomplish because of pressure from above.
Scouting and Minor League directors are his boys. What, 3rd highest payroll in MLB? Hands on or off ownership, he seems to be able to accomplish whatever he wants. Is there something we’ve heard about other than Soriano’s 8th year that didn’t come via Hendry’s hand or that he was prevented from doing?
Chris DickersonQuote Reply
Before we quote Colvin’s MiLB numbers, why don’t we use MLE’s? I’m too lazy to look, but I know last time I did that OBP was .300 or below.
mb21Quote Reply
Oops. I read the comment wrong. Sorry about that.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I don’t think any of them bu Colvin will be part of the team next year. Byrd is hurt bad, and once he proves his health, will be moved, either before the deadline or during the offseason. Soriano may not last the year before he is dealt or released.
The moves here are simple:
[/quote]Clarification: the club holds the option on Ramirez, but it vests if he’s traded. He’d likely have to waive it to facilitate a trade, though the Cubs might be able to talk him into it if they pay out his $2mm kill fee on his way out the door.
I like your plan, but I’ve got faint hope that they’ll be so bold. Maybe they’ll be lucky enough to fall 10-15 behind by the deadline, but based on what we’ve seen so far I have to assume that they’ll act like contenders until their magic number is zero.
I’m not entirely sold on the concept of cutting Soriano just yet. If you’re disciplined enough to keep him as the fifth outfielder and only the fifth outfielder, why take the risk that he’ll make the decision to stop sucking while wearing another uniform? The end of the bench isn’t the best place to develop a youngster anyway, and Soriano’s contract is a sunk cost. (I’d gladly dump him for even a couple million in salary relief over the life of his contract, however.)
uncle daveQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Try and deal Soriano. If you can’t, cut him. If the Jays can cut Rios, the Cubs can cut Soriano.
[/quote]
Soriano is not a 27 year old like Rios was, and is paid a lot less. He’d almost certainly clear waivers (which is what happened to Rios – he wasn’t cut. If the Sox hadn’t claimed him he’d still be a Blue Jay).
Cutting Soriano would be just as dumb as signing him to that massive deal in the first place. He was still a 3-win player last year, and is on pace to repeat that this year (well, he was before he got hurt). That’s still $10M or so worth of production you’re getting out of him.
And that’s for the marginal benefit of… Colvin? Who is maybe – maybe – a 2 or 3-win player if he doesn’t continue to suck?
Or you replace him on the free agent market with… who exactly? Carlos Beltran, who’d be worth maybe 4-5 wins in left? Your opportunity cost for that 1-2 win improvement is going to cost you the sum of Soriano’s contract + Beltran’s contract. Even you see Soriano’s as a completely sunk cost, Beltran’s salary alone would be an overpay for 1-2 wins.
The WreckardQuote Reply
We’ve talked about dealing Soriano or letting him go; am I the only one who sees the Cubs actually holding onto him for the remainder of his contract, or at least 7 years in total?
MishQuote Reply
To add to Wreckard, it’s not like Beltran is a spring chicken and he has his own injury history to battle with.
MishQuote Reply
I think the Cubs hold on to Soriano for the next couple seasons at least and then either eat the last one or two years, or try to claim it using disability insurance…but I don’t know how that works with salaries.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Chris Dickerson]I mean, I guess. But that makes Lou and Jim different from virtually 0% of every working stiff out there. Most people get different bosses all the time.
Shit, 5 bosses in 9 years seems pretty easy.
Jim has been unlucky in some ways, but it seems like there’s been precious little he’s been unable to accomplish because of pressure from above.
Scouting and Minor League directors are his boys. What, 3rd highest payroll in MLB? Hands on or off ownership, he seems to be able to accomplish whatever he wants. Is there something we’ve heard about other than Soriano’s 8th year that didn’t come via Hendry’s hand or that he was prevented from doing?[/quote]
No, fair point. It’s more along the lines of long-term plans that would have suffered in this environment. I don’t think whatever strategy Hendry had when he got the job survived a season or more due to the turbulence at the top. I do believe some GMs benefit from a stable ownership environment that allows for sticking to an organizational strategy over time, but not Hendry.
I’m also just uncomfortable with the way baseball GMs and managers are evaluated and dealt with in terms of job security. It seems you could do a really good job, stick to a plan, achieve organizational goals, etc., and still easily perform worse in the standings each year. Baseball convention means you should get fired for that, at least in Chicago or New York.
But there’s only a 1 in 30 chance of ultimate success each year, and I don’t think most GM’s careers last more than about 10 or 15 years.
I think Hendry should be judged on whether the organization is in better shape now than when he took responsibility for it, not on where they are in the standings the last two years. And then some allowances should be made for the ownership turmoil. True, people in large organizations get new bosses frequently, but ownership doesn’t usually change that frequently.
This story was never cool, bro.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]I think Hendry should be judged on whether the organization is in better shape now than when he took responsibility for it, not on where they are in the standings the last two years. And then some allowances should be made for the ownership turmoil.[/quote]
I think he should be judged for the plan he sells to the media and the fans and his ability to deliver on that plan. Did he say this would be a bad year and act in the offseason as if it was a rebuilding year, no. He got bent over by Tampa for Garza to sell the idea and plan that this team can contend. He said this is the team I have put together over the years of being in control and I made the one last move I felt we needed by bringing in Garza to really contend this season.
He failed.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think the Cubs hold on to Soriano for the next couple seasons at least and then either eat the last one or two years, or try to claim it using disability insurance…but I don’t know how that works with salaries.[/quote]
Agreed, hold on to Soriano until some other team will take just some of that contract.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
[quote name=Bubba Biscuit]I think he should be judged for the plan he sells to the media and the fans and his ability to deliver on that plan. Did he say this would be a bad year and act in the offseason as if it was a rebuilding year, no. He got bent over by Tampa for Garza to sell the idea and plan that this team can contend. He said this is the team I have put together over the years of being in control and I made the one last move I felt we needed by bringing in Garza to really contend this season.
He failed.[/quote]I guess I blame Ricketts for that, but there’s no way of knowing whether Hendry would have preferred to rebuild. Again, that would have required some job security, which he only has through next year’s All Star break.
Bruce Miles just posted a piece on whether Hendry needs to go.
http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20110602/sports/706029870/
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Bubba Biscuit]I think he should be judged for the plan he sells to the media and the fans and his ability to deliver on that plan. Did he say this would be a bad year and act in the offseason as if it was a rebuilding year, no. He got bent over by Tampa for Garza to sell the idea and plan that this team can contend. He said this is the team I have put together over the years of being in control and I made the one last move I felt we needed by bringing in Garza to really contend this season.
He failed.[/quote]
I had issues with the Garza trade as well, but for that crazy of a trade, you’d think the owner would have to sign off on that, and it turns out he did. So that’s mostly on Hendry for thinking it was a good idea, but a significant portion of it is on Ricketts for not firing Hendry on the spot.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]I guess I blame Ricketts for that, but there’s no way of knowing whether Hendry would have preferred to rebuild. Again, that would have required some job security, which he only has through next year’s All Star break.
Bruce Miles just posted a piece on whether Hendry needs to go.
http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20110602/sports/706029870/%5B/quote%5D
Good article.
The thing is that all through the offseason and when they took over at first the Ricketts were saying “go young, build through the draft, reinforce the farm system” and all that goodie good stuff and then completely reversed themselves in the Garza trade. They didn’t even hold a proper fire sale. And I think even if Hendry was dead-set on making that Garza trade, given their original philosophy, Ricketts should’ve stopped it.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]I guess I blame Ricketts for that, but there’s no way of knowing whether Hendry would have preferred to rebuild. Again, that would have required some job security, which he only has through next year’s All Star break.[/quote]
[quote name=Rice Cube]I had issues with the Garza trade as well, but for that crazy of a trade, you’d think the owner would have to sign off on that, and it turns out he did. So that’s mostly on Hendry for thinking it was a good idea, but a significant portion of it is on Ricketts for not firing Hendry on the spot.[/quote]
It doesn’t matter to me if Hendry was the puppeteer or the puppet in that case. If he was the puppeteer he sold Ricketts on the idea this team could contend and was wrong. If he was the puppet, he was not able to talk Ricketts out of a bad deal and a bad idea thinking this team was going to contend and wasn’t able to stand up for that. Being the puppet in that situation would come with the understanding that the blame would fall on him if this didn’t work.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
I’d be fine with the Cubs cutting Soriano. rWAR had Soriano at 1.8 last season and that’s with him only being -2 fielding. There’s no way he’s not at least 10 runs worse than that.
mb21Quote Reply
I think there’s a lot of blame to go around. We can blame the Tribune, Zell, Ricketts, Hendry, Wilken and even the coaching staff and players as far as I’m concerned.
mb21Quote Reply
I blame ACB and by extension, OVBlog.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I blame ACB and by extension, OVBlog.[/quote]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKIaS0lh-uo
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I blame injuries and by extension, injured fans.[/quote].
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’d be fine with the Cubs cutting Soriano. rWAR had Soriano at 1.8 last season and that’s with him only being -2 fielding. There’s no way he’s not at least 10 runs worse than that.[/quote]
I know it’s the right thing to do, but it’s just such a shitload of money…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’d be fine with the Cubs cutting Soriano. rWAR had Soriano at 1.8 last season and that’s with him only being -2 fielding. There’s no way he’s not at least 10 runs worse than that.[/quote]Yeah, but what do you gain by cutting him? 400 grand and an empty spot on the end of the bench? Valuable red meat for the lazy latin’ haters in the bleachers? I dunno. Seems like there’s almost more upside to stashing him at the end of the bench and hoping you can move him in 2013. (Sunny outlook, that.)
uncle daveQuote Reply
[quote name=The Wreckard]Soriano is not a 27 year old like Rios was, and is paid a lot less. He’d almost certainly clear waivers (which is what happened to Rios – he wasn’t cut. If the Sox hadn’t claimed him he’d still be a Blue Jay).
Cutting Soriano would be just as dumb as signing him to that massive deal in the first place. He was still a 3-win player last year, and is on pace to repeat that this year (well, he was before he got hurt). That’s still $10M or so worth of production you’re getting out of him.
And that’s for the marginal benefit of… Colvin? Who is maybe – maybe – a 2 or 3-win player if he doesn’t continue to suck?
Or you replace him on the free agent market with… who exactly? Carlos Beltran, who’d be worth maybe 4-5 wins in left? Your opportunity cost for that 1-2 win improvement is going to cost you the sum of Soriano’s contract + Beltran’s contract. Even you see Soriano’s as a completely sunk cost, Beltran’s salary alone would be an overpay for 1-2 wins.[/quote]That’s fair. I just don’t see Soriano as a 3-win player anymore. I’ll be shocked if he can even be that this year when he comes back. His defense seems to only worsen as his legs age, as does his bat. I think he’s finished. It’s all downhill from here, which is sad. He was an electrifying player in his day.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
No way Ricketts agrees to DFA Sori, if they wouldn’t DFA Bradley for much less money why would they release Soriano especially when he is giving some offensive output? Don’t see that happening. I will cut Ricketts some slack, very little, on the Garza deal. Hendry sold that deal as Garza still being relatively young and cost controlled. He sold it as giving up youth for youth to the fans and media and I’m sure he sold it that way to his boss. I don’t agree with it but that was his line. I do think that Hendry wanted Garza because he was desperate to improve the team now and he could sell it as having long term value. The fact that he gave up as much for Garza as the Brewers did for Greinke tells me he was desperate to win now.
melissaQuote Reply
I agree on the sunk cost, but I think that’s exactly why you dump him now. Better to pay him to drag someone else’s lineup down than your own. It’s no longer a matter of Soriano deciding to do anything; his legs are shot. I don’t see any way for him to improve. His legs gave him the speed to compensate for his defensive deficiencies, as well as that little extra “oomph” in his swing, and both of those are fading fast.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Fixed. I fucking hate it whenever a player’s lack or performance is blamed on them “deciding” to perform well.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Also, I agree with MO on Soriano’s legs. They have giant forks sticking out of them. I’ll defend the Soriano contract as the day is long but that has nothing to do with the shell of the player that’s left. He’s finished.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I agree on the sunk cost, but I think that’s exactly why you dump him now. Better to pay him to drag someone else’s lineup down than your own. It’s no longer a matter of Soriano deciding to do anything; his legs are shot. I don’t see any way for him to improve. His legs gave him the speed to compensate for his defensive deficiencies, as well as that little extra “oomph” in his swing, and both of those are fading fast.[/quote]I guess for me it’s a question of how much of a drag he’s really going to be. If you give him six starts a week, sure, it’s a problem. But I think he could put in 150 ABs a year against lefties and be effective (read: ‘modestly better than replacement level’), especially if you were overly creative with his various DL stints. In that case, I’d hold my fire unless he starts bitching about playing time or causing some other disturbance on the off gamble that someone picks him up for cash considerations, however modest, later on down the line.
Maybe my thinking has been colored by how the Giants handled Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito down the stretch last year, but telling the guy to stay at home in bed while letting a co-worker punch the timeclock for him seems like a better alternative to firing him at this point.
uncle daveQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Fixed. I fucking hate it whenever a player’s lack or performance is blamed on them “deciding” to perform well.[/quote]Agreed. I didn’t mean to imply otherwise.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=uncle dave]I guess for me it’s a question of how much of a drag he’s really going to be. If you give him six starts a week, sure, it’s a problem. But I think he could put in 150 ABs a year against lefties and be effective (read: ‘modestly better than replacement level’), especially if you were overly creative with his various DL stints. In that case, I’d hold my fire unless he starts bitching about playing time or causing some other disturbance on the off gamble that someone picks him up for cash considerations, however modest, later on down the line.
Maybe my thinking has been colored by how the Giants handled Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito down the stretch last year, but telling the guy to stay at home in bed while letting a co-worker punch the timeclock for him seems like a better alternative to firing him at this point.[/quote]The thing with Soriano is, given that he’s an extremely streaky player, you’re going to have to extremely lucky in choosing when to give him those 150 PA.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
If Ricketts is indeed playing Cub fans for stupid, it’s because a lot of them are: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/poll/chi-110601-cubs-poll,0,2980354,post.poll
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]If Ricketts is indeed playing Cub fans for stupid, it’s because a lot of them are: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/poll/chi-110601-cubs-poll,0,2980354,post.poll%5B/quote%5D
I was relieved to see that “the results are not scientific.” (dying laughing)
My worry is that Ricketts is looking at the results of polls like this before he makes his decisions.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The thing with Soriano is, given that he’s an extremely streaky player, you’re going to have to extremely lucky in choosing when to give him those 150 PA.[/quote]Sure, that’s true. I guess I’m more focused on what those 150 PA are worth to the team at this moment (answer: nothing more than a chance to evaluate Brad Snyder or Blake DeWitt, at least for 2011) than on how he’s going to perform. Hopefully he’s on pace for 40 dingers at the deadline and some dumbass decides to pick him up. If not, you’re still just playing with house money, so fuck it, put it on boxcars and snake eyes.
uncle daveQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]If Ricketts is indeed playing Cub fans for stupid, it’s because a lot of them are: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/poll/chi-110601-cubs-poll,0,2980354,post.poll%5B/quote%5D
Well there’s my nominee for this year’s No Fucking Shit Awards.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Well there’s my nominee for this year’s No Fucking Shit Awards.[/quote]Or as Quade calls them, the Shitties.
GBTSQuote Reply
I guess my reasoning is that I do not want Soriano blocking anybody else. If he’s the 3rd best outfielder then he should play, but I don’t think he is. I’m not even sure he’s the 3rd best outfielder out of the group that is currently on the active roster.
That being said, if all he is doing is blocking the likes of Tony Campana, I’m not that concerned.
I agree with Melissa that the Cubs won’t release him.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Well there’s my nominee for this year’s No Fucking Shit Awards.[/quote]
Is that like an award for being constipated?
BerseliusQuote Reply
The most shocking thing about that trib poll was that the majority of the voters thought the Cubs should do “nothing” the next time Z breaks a bat. That’s actually rational compared to what I’ve heard on the radio and seen in print the last couple of days.
melissaQuote Reply
new feces: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/10-things-to-look-forward-to-this-summer.html
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=melissa]The most shocking thing about that trib poll was that the majority of the voters thought the Cubs should do “nothing” the next time Z breaks a bat. That’s actually rational compared to what I’ve heard on the radio and seen in print the last couple of days.[/quote]Less than those who think he should either be fined or suspended though.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Is that like an award for being constipated?[/quote]You’ll need to remember to tell yourself to shit, not get shit or get no-shit.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Less than those who think he should either be fined or suspended though.[/quote]
Yeah, after I wrote majority, I realized that wasn’t actually absolutely correct. I should have said that, that category had the most votes.
melissaQuote Reply