Tim Dierkes from MLBTR tweets:
Have talked to multiple agents who think Cubs will spend good money on FA catcher this winter. They are underestimating Welington Castillo!
— timdierkes (@timdierkes) October 2, 2013
Seeing how agents are always the most reliable source for this kind of thing, this has to mean Brian McCann, right? The only other catching free agents of note are Jarrod Saltalamacchia and (maybe) Kurt Suzuki. Salty had a big year with the Red Sox last year but it's not clear that he's much better than Castillo, who was quietly just about as good this year. Suzuki is a lot worse than I remembered – he posted a couple of 3+ WAR seasons with the A's a few years ago but has been worth 1 fWAR over the past two seasons combined. Suzuki can draw walks and is a good defender so maybe that could be a draw, but that's pretty much sums up his game. He can't hit his way out of a paper bag. There's also the 35 year old Carlos Ruiz (not happening) and A.J. Pierzynski (Cubs fans would revolt).
If there's anything to this rumor at all, I read it as the Cubs not being particularly enamored with Castillo. I've always thought he was just a guy, so if they go after someone to bounce him I won't get too upset. Still, I'd rather be hearing rumors that they're looking for an OF or a 2b/3b as insurance against inevitable prospect failure. I feel pretty safe in saying that one of the Cubs big four is going to bust big time, and if the Cubs end up blocking someone, well they can always flip them for pitching.
Comments
A year ago I was saying the Cubs should go after him this offseason, but i don’t buy it. I think what we’re hearing right now is a lot of bullshit. It makes no sense at this point unless Castillo’s injury is worse than expected. You’ve got 3 outfield spots that can be improved. Probably a couple starters too. It really doesn’t make sense to go after a catcher.
I won’t be upset either, but it really doesn’t make sense. I feel pretty confident saying that Castillo can give you at least league average production next year. There are other holes and I don’t even see catcher as one of them.
dmick89Quote Reply
This could be unintentionally hilarious.
1. Nobody would dare pimp a homer at Wrigley again.
Or
2. Everyone would pimp homers just to fuck with McCann.
Baseball Jesus, make this happen.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’m surprised you would consider Castillo “just a guy.” There probably aren’t 10 catchers I’d take over Castillo right now. In fact, let’s name them.
Buster Posey
Brian McCann
Salvador Perez
Yadier Molina
Joe Mauer
Matt Wieters
Carlos Santana
Jason Castro
Jonathan Lucroy
Russell Martin?
Honestly, I might even take Castillo over one or two of those guys. If you consider contract situations, I’d definitely rather have Castillo over Mauer or whatever McCann is going to get.
MylesQuote Reply
Tim Dierkes just tweeted again, says probably a backup. So that might suggest a Kurt Suzuki type.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Yeah I’m not blaming the Pirates or their fans (the assholes in question aside). It sounds like their security fell down last night if Ms. Latos’s account is accurate (and there’s no reason to doubt it).
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I’m slow to change my mind about players other than Jeff Samardzija at this point (dying laughing), especially after being all in in Geo a few years back. I’m not saying Castillo is bad, I just don’t think he’s nearly this good. My brain still thinks of him as a 1-1.5 WAR guy. Which isn’t too shabby but shouldn’t block you from going after someone like McCann.
BerseliusQuote Reply
If they’re just going for a backup, then eh. I still wouldn’t mind a run at McCann, he’s probably one of the top 5 free agents this offseason. Pickings are pretty slim given the rash of extensions these days.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I think spending on McCann when you have a perfectly acceptable catcher in Castillo doesn’t make sense to me.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m with Berselius on this one…
Castillo has a career BABIP of .346 and he’s a catcher who isn’t exactly fleet of foot. He has hit line drives at a good clip. But his ISO/BB%/K% are not exactly inspiring. If he gets some bad luck with balls in play he suddenly looks very mediocre.
MVWQuote Reply
I think signing McCann would be a mistake. He’ll be 30 years old next year and he’s been injured in each of the past three seasons. Is he really an upgrade over Castillo at this point?
MuckerQuote Reply
@ MVW:
For a guy who took forever to get his first few walks of the season, I’m pretty surprised to see that Castillo ended up with a 7.9% walk rate, 16th in best for C the majors (min 300 PA).
BerseliusQuote Reply
Mucker wrote:
The injuries are a legit concern, but even for a catcher I’d still consider this a moot point when it comes to signing FAs, if not a plus compared to other FAs. It’s not like there are a lot of 26 year old FAs out there.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Fixed.
Aisle424Quote Reply
The Cubs going for Brian McCann makes no damn sense at all. None.
Not if they are sticking to the plan. Now, if the Rickettses are getting cold feet in the face of Alvin’s open letters and other stupid fan bullshit, then maybe, but I’d be extremely disappointed, They are too far down the road now to start fucking it all up without finishing it.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I think the question is, is there any other position that you can upgrade more than catcher if you were to acquire McCann. Hard for me to believe you couldn’t improve an outfield spot more.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
If the Cubs can sign him to a 4 year deal, then I guess it’s worth looking into but I think he’ll get more than that.
MuckerQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Nothing says the Cubs can’t pursue more than one free agent at a time, FWIW.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I’d love to see them spend big money this offseason. It’s about the only way I’ll give a shit next year. I’d just prefer they spend on any of the outfield spots or a pitcher.
dmick89Quote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
Since when has signing FAs not been part of the plan? They’re not going to keep signing the Nate Schierholtzes and Paul Maholms of the world forever.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
No, but they won’t spend on 3 outfielders and a starting pitcher or three. Do that and then get McCann.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
Agree. If Navarro was the starting catcher then by all means go after McCann.
dmick89Quote Reply
Anywhere to get a list of free agent catchers in 2015?
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
MLBTR usually has that stuff.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/2015-mlb-free-agents.html
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d rather they go after Ellsbury and Choo over McCann. Get them both.
dmick89Quote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Not to the exclusion of bigger fish, at least. I’d expect this team to be active with mid-tier free agents (and to succeed in finding a lot of production there) even after the kids come up and they open up the wallet and sign a few big names. As teams get ever more protective of their young talent, I think you’ll see that the 2/$12 guys will be a big part of finding wins.
As for McCann, I’m not sold. He’s been a solid, perennial 3-4 win player, but he’s also piled up a lot of miles. You’re always going to get heightened injury risk and decline when you go after free agents, but I feel like the risk is even bigger as a catcher. Do you really want to tie up $15MM for four or five years on such a high-risk player? I’d just as soon find the wins somewhere that’s a bit more safe.
uncle daveQuote Reply
So here’s a ‘would you rather’ for you: would you rather watch the professional assholes who root for the Red Sox celebrate a win, or cheer for the gang of rapists and birthers (and Dick Vitale) in Tampa? Guess it’s time to go all-in for the A’s.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
It isn’t this stage of the plan. They still don’t have any impact home-grown talent to build around. They are not going to start off by signing 30+ year old catchers with spotty injury histories before any of the Baezes, Solers, Almoras or whoever get to the MLB and actually succeed. They have no MLB-ready pitching in the system.
It sucks, but this isn’t when they start pissing money away on old free agents unless:
1) They found a hidden money tree and they can actually start the “parallel fronts” thing they’ve talked about before
2) As MB (I think) mentioned earlier, Castillo is more hurt than we know.
3) Ricketts is meddling.
Of the 3 scenarios, #3 is most likely and least encouraging.
Aisle424Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
I’d rather sign both Choo and Ellsbury than sign neither of them.
MylesQuote Reply
I guess Thoyer should get on with trading Edwin Jackson as soon as possible. Seriously though, EVERY FUCKING FREE AGENT is going to have reasons not to sign him. Ellsbury has an injury history too. Choo seems like a guy who is older than his years. All of them are going to be overpaid.
I want the Cubs to be the fucking Cubs, not the Marlins.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
I do too. And I want them to be the Cubs right now. I’m tired of watching shitty teams and certainly don’t want to watch them the next two or more years as we hope one of their prospects turns out to be an impact player.
I’d be OK with signing McCann, but I think they can improve other positions more. So those should be filled if you are going to be signing McCann. That’s my objection to it. I think McCann is definitely an upgrade over Castillo and a worthy one, but like Myles, I’d rather have Choo and Ellsbury and I don’t much care about the cost. That’s for the Cubs to pay and not me.
We already saw what might happen with Castro. He’s probably average and he was signed for more money than you can probably sign Choo for.
Go ahead and sign McCann, but the plan ought to include signing Choo and Ellsbury. At the very least it would have to include signing one of them. Otherwise you upgraded a position you were already OK at and left 3 holes in the outfield.
No, I do not consider Junior Lake or Nate Schierholz to be decent players. Not playing every day anyway.
dmick89Quote Reply
The other thing we have to consider here is that Theo and Hoyer were signed for 5 years. If they don’t win in 5 years, they’re probably gone. I just don’t see an owner giving a GM as much responsibility as he’s given those two and then not demanding the team at least get into the playoffs.
As I understood “the plan” when they were hired, it was to build a good farm system and then add around them.
They have a good farm system. Now it’s time to add around them. So signing free agents this year makes perfect sense to me.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Exactly. If we wait to sign free agents until Baez/Soler etc. gets called up it is going to be too late and/or the free agents may not be available. Sign the best free agents available now, and when the kids are called up, they will already have the support around them necessary to have a competing team.
WaLiQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
I would think they’d have a little wiggle room on that. If they are only winning 84 games and just missing the playoffs after five years, but the farm system is a jillion % better than when they started, I’m thinking they’ll be given more time.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
So what’s a reasonable guesstimate of payroll Thoyer has to work with? We talking $50 million to spend? Or is it more like $25 million to spend? I think Thoyer has done a great job of finding some very good value in the free agency market but will they have enough spending power to make that huge splash?
MuckerQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
This.
And to be clear, I’d rather the Cubs sign Ellsbury and/or Choo as well. I just don’t think we should dismiss signing someone like McCann out of hand, I’d be happy with that signing too.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Mucker wrote:
After reasonable Arb raises, BRef has the Cubs at 73.2 million. We’ve spent 106 and 109 in 13 and 12, respectively. I expect that number to hold steady or go down to ~95, so at worst I can envision around 22 million to play with, and at most 35 or so.
Let’s call it 30. That could buy us:
Choo (15/15/15/15/15)
Granderson (10/15(2.5)?)
Recoving pitcher (?)
That’s commitments of 25/17.5/15/15/15.
Or, you could maybe get Tanaka and go
Choo (15/15/15/15/15)
Tanaka (posting fee: $65 million / 10/10/10/12/12/15/18)
And I like that one better (but I don’t think we’ll win the rights to Tanaka).
MylesQuote Reply
If you couldn’t tell over the past 3 months, I really like Choo and want him DESPERATELY.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
I think the Cubs have around $55m committed to next season. There’s a bunch of arb money to be worked out in there, but I don’t think any of them are going to be much save for Shark. Beyond that payroll obligations for the next few years run to $20-$30m, plus arbitrations.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Myles:
73.2 million? I was looking at Cot’s payroll sheet and figured around $55. That’s….a bit of a difference.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tt7HjIernphaSrv4wMWdUYg&output=html
Could just be that Cots isn’t counting the league minumum guys.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Funny how the season ends and the comments ratchet up.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
BREF has 22.7 in arb costs. Shark, Schierholtz, Bard, Russell, Valbuena, Barney, Wood, Arrieta, and Strop. You can safely assume that Bard will be non-tendered and signed at less than the ~2 bref would suggest for him, but there are still some healthy raises in there.
To be honest, I’d be fine with dealing Russell, who will probably make 2.5 to 3 in arb-2, still has 2 years of team control, and could theoretically be replaced by Zach Rosscup (who probably forced his way onto a major league roster next year).
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I figured Shark would get a large-ish raise but eyeballed $1m tops for most of the rest.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Now there’s more to speculate on other than “will the Cubs lose today”, since there wasn’t much speculation to be had there (laughing).
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/arbitration-eligibles-chicago-cubs.html
Some of these guys will be non-tendered.
dmick89Quote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/2013-cubs-prospects-in-review-javier-baez.html
MylesQuote Reply