There are multiple reports that the Cubs and Angels have traded Carlos Marmol for Dan Haren.The Angels seemed reluctant to keep Haren on a $15.5m option year. Per Robothal, the Angels might kick in the $3.5m that they would have had to pay for Haren's buyout. Bruce Levine has confimed the deal, however there are conflicting reports that another team may still be involved in negotiations with the Angels.
As much slagging of Haren as there seems to be going around the twittersphere, Haren posted 2.1 tWAR, 1.8 fWAR last year. On the other hand, the more ERA-based bWAR had him as a sub-replacement level pitcher. Haren's fastball velocity slipped to 88.5 last year, about a 1-2 mph drop from his career average. However, Haren's not a guy who is really blowing a fastball past batters anyway. Haren throws a ton of cutters and splitters, and velocity doesn't matter quite so much with those. Last season didn't look great, he's 31, and there are some injury concerns with his back, but he's only one year removed from a 6 fWAR season (4 bWAR). Gut reaction-wise, I'm more than happy to take that for a volatile reliever who will be paid close to $10m next year that has walked roughly 6.25 batters per nine innings over the past three seasons.
Let's take a look at the projections for each of these guys anyway. As far as I know, there aren't any projections out yet that use 2012 season data, so I'll stick with the Oliver long term forecasts from The Hardball Times. I know that Oliver updates rest of season stats weekly, but I'm not sure if it also updates the multi-year forecast (reading between the lines on that projection, I think the answer is yes). Here are Haren and Marmol's 2012 predictions with their hopefully old teams
| IP | K | BB | HR | ERA | WAR | |
| Haren | 209 | 172 | 39 | 27 | 3.96 | 1.4 |
| Marmol | 57 | 76 | 38 | 4 | 3.96 | 0.4 |
Of course, this doesn't take into account the change in leagues, as well as (maybe) last year's stats. Marmol is only going to look worse with a shift to the better hitting league, while Haren is only going to look better. From what I remember, the usual shift between leagues is 0.5 WAR. Thus, based on this projection Haren would be worth 1.9 WAR and Marmol -0.1, a clear win for the Cubs.
But what about the money? Marmol is due $9.8m next year, and Haren will be due $15.5m. I'll assume that the Cubs take on the full amount, though if the Angels kick in some more, even better. Last year the $WAR was about $5m per win, according to fangraphs (though if you go by Indians GM Mark Shapiro, it's closer to $9m). Anyway, I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume there will be a lot more inflation than usual due to the new CBA, and guesstimate $WAR at $7m per win. In that case, Marmol has a net value of $–10.5m to the Angels, while Haren has a net value of $-2.2m to the Cubs. Obviously, you can adjust these factors as you see fit ($WAR, or Haren's projection due to his struggles last year), but it's hard to adjust them enough to conclude that this isn't a huge win for the Cubs.
I seem to be on an island with this one, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cubs renoegotiate the deal and sign Haren to a reasonable extension. There's still some upside there (6 fWAR in 2011), and from a negotiation standpoint his value has never been lower. He might not be the ace that he was before, but I think he can still be a quality pitcher in the NL. Plus, it's not like players like Jason Berken, Casey Coleman, Chris Rusin, and Brooks Raley are going to be knocking the door down to edge him out of the rotation.
UPDATE:
Per Robothal, it seems like all we know for sure has happened is that the Cubs have asked Marmol to waive his NTC. No deal has been agreed to.
UPDATE 2:
Decision rests with Marmol, according to source. If he agrees to join #Angels, Haren will go to #Cubs.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 3, 2012
UPDATE 3:
Multiple sources are now saying that the deal is not happening. Blech.
UPDATE 4:
Apparently it was the CUBS that axed the deal. Fuck the heck?
Comments
Post already updated twice (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
Carlos Marmol rhp
3 years/$20M (2011-13)
3 years/$20M (2011-13)
signed extension with Chicago Cubs 2/14/11 (avoided arbitration, $5.65M-$4.1M)
11:$3.2M, 12:$7M, 13:$9.8M
1 year/$2.125M (2010)
re-signed by Cubs 2/4/10 (avoided arbitration, $2.5M-$1.75M)
performance bonuses: $50,000 each for 55, 60 games finished
1 year/$0.575M (2009)
re-signed by Cubs 2/25/09
award bonuses
1 year/$0.43M (2008)
1 year (2007)
re-signed by Cubs 3/07
1 year (2006)
contract purchased 11/05
signed 1999 as amateur free agent from the Dominican Republic
agent: Barry Praver
ML service: 5.084
Where the hell is the NTC?! I guess I should find the original press release for his extension…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
deleted
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/02/cubs-marmol-agree-to-three-year-deal.html
I am not seeing this no-trade clause. I feel like this is something I should remember.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
Josh–the Kevin Smith youtube you posted in the last thread was hilarious. Best laugh I’ve had in a week. Thanks
SVBQuote Reply
http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/story?id=6120813
Well poop.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I love this trade. Numbers aside, I still love this trade.
Srbutch5Quote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
So…Marmol was blindsided, I assume?
akabariQuote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
Gordo says that Mamol has signed off on the deal, moments later Muskat says the deal is “not happening”
BerseliusQuote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
More people saying the deal is off. FFS.
BerseliusQuote Reply
So now we must kill Marmol to rid ourselves of him.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ SVB:
I had the same reaction.
joshQuote Reply
Maybe they didn’t like Haren’s medicals
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
He better be missing a fucking arm.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Would not be surprised to see the Trib run that headline tomorrow (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
That could be. Would be interesting to have been a fly on that wall.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
/Consoles self with freshly seasoned and grilled beer brat and a New Belgium tallboy.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I’m sure Dempster was listening in. Just ask him.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
No way, he was blindsided
BerseliusQuote Reply
The Angels have ~1.5 hours to trade Haren, or make a decision on his option
BerseliusQuote Reply
Now people are complaining on twitter that this is a pattern with the Cubs. Never mind that it was the Braves and Marmol who spilled the beans, not the FO.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I reiterate what I said during the Dempster business. Twitter is never a reliable source. Too many people want to “scoop” and tweet before doing due diligence, or thinking.
Twitter is the tool of the fucking Hope Monster. Look what he did to you all today.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
For shame!
FOR SHAAAAAMEE!!
joshQuote Reply
SVB wrote:
GLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAR LARBUDDY LARBUDDY
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Wikipedia still says Haren is a Cub. I choose to believe that and disregard the Twitter rumors that the trade was called off. Twitter is unreliable, after all.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Totally. Wikipedia has never let me down.
joshQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
We have 19 minutes. And that’s just creepy (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The other rather slim possibility is that the Cubs wanted to see if the Angels would flinch (it’s now 11 PM Central) so since the option at this point was either exercised or bought out, now the Cubs can give Haren whatever $ they want to allocate and keep Marmol…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It sounds like the Cubs killed the deal. I’m all right if they killed it, because it means there was something wrong either with the money LA wanted, or with Haren.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, I’m thinking they must have called LA’s bluff, now that he’s been declined. It’ll be interesting to see if they pick him up now.
joshQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Twitter already ruined Spring Training. It was only a matter of time before it killed the hot stove.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
We can sign him as a free agent and keep Marmol. And Vitters!
mb21Quote Reply
What the fuck. Last I saw we traded Marmol for Haren and this morning I check Facebook and see Tim’s fucking “Dewey defeats Truman” photo and knew something was off.
Fucking Cubs. Not saying it’s the Cubs fault but shit just always happens to be in orbit around wrigley field.
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi wrote:
Don’t be mad. The only reason I can think of why the Cubs would make the deal and then back out is because of Haren’s medicals.
They can still sign him and not lose a draft pick. And if the medicals are that bad he will be cheap.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Wow, I had the weirdest dream last night. Everyone was all excited about how the Cubs traded Marmol for Haren.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Haren made comments that he and his wife had gotten themselves excited that Chicago would be a good place for a year. Maybe Thoyer wanted to sign him to an extension and he had no interest in that.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Colin’s Transaction Analysis of a trade that didn’t happen: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18829#126684
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/what-we-know-about-the-potential-dan-haren-trade.html
mb21Quote Reply
Hi there, I enjoy reading all of your article post.
I like to write a little comment to support you.
http://partyzanfilm.net/hasciounia/login.php?sid=b42396d1f2df791d1bbcbca367de8809Quote Reply
Thanks for a marvelous posting! I definitely enjoyed reading it, you could be a great author.
I will ensure that I bookmark your blog and may come back sometime soon.
I want to encourage you to definitely continue your great
work, have a nice evening!
dezurni veterinari beogradQuote Reply