Cubs v. Pirates – October 7, 2015

It's here. Jake Arrieta vs. Gerrit Cole. Let's do this.

Lineups (my best guess)

Pirates

RF Polanco (L)
LF Marte (R)
CF McCutchen (R)
3B Ramirez (R)
2B Walker (S)
1B Alvarez (L)
C Cervelli (R)
SS Mercer (R)
SP Cole (R)

Cubs

CF Fowler (S)
RF Schwarber (L)
LF Bryant (R)
1B Rizzo (L)
2B Castro (R)
C Montero (L)
SS Russell (R)
SP Arrieta (R)
3B Baez (R)

When the Pirates are at bat:

As excellent has Arrieta has been, he's "only" been great in strikeouts this year. Pedro Alvarez aside, the Pirates don't strike out too often. Since Kang is injured and Sean Rodriguez does not figure to start in this game, only Alvarez is even league average in strikeout rate this year. The point I'm trying to get at is that I would expect a good amount of balls in play, which does increase (slightly) the variance of outcomes for Arrieta. Since Arrieta is an incredible pitcher, the increased variance is a bad thing. 

Gregory Polanco has been an unquestioned disappointment this season. Polanco is the only outfielder on the team with an OPS+ under 100 (it's 92). Even worse, his power just hasn't been there; an ISO of .125 isn't what you are hoping for from your everyday rightfielder.

ISO among qualified RF, 2015
Name Team ISO wOBA wRC+ WAR
Bryce Harper Nationals 0.319 0.461 198 9.5
Jose Bautista Blue Jays 0.285 0.389 148 4.5
Carlos Gonzalez Rockies 0.269 0.364 114 2.4
Nelson Cruz Mariners 0.264 0.396 158 4.8
J.D. Martinez Tigers 0.253 0.372 137 5
Ryan Braun Brewers 0.213 0.366 129 2.8
Jay Bruce Reds 0.209 0.309 91 0.1
Marlon Byrd – – – 0.206 0.317 100 1
Curtis Granderson Mets 0.198 0.357 132 5.1
Carlos Beltran Yankees 0.195 0.346 119 1.9
Shin-Soo Choo Rangers 0.187 0.365 127 3.5
Mark Trumbo – – – 0.187 0.327 108 1.1
Brandon Moss – – – 0.181 0.308 94 0.6
Matt Kemp Padres 0.178 0.325 110 0.4
Josh Reddick Athletics 0.177 0.338 117 3
Torii Hunter Twins 0.169 0.304 90 0.5
Kole Calhoun Angels 0.167 0.317 105 3.8
Gerardo Parra – – – 0.161 0.334 108 0.4
Jason Heyward Cardinals 0.146 0.346 121 6
Gregory Polanco Pirates 0.125 0.304 94 2.3
Avisail Garcia White Sox 0.108 0.295 83 -1.1
Ender Inciarte Diamondbacks 0.105 0.325 101 3.3
Nick Markakis Braves 0.08 0.327 107 1.6

This isn't to say that Polanco doesn't have redeeming qualities. He gets on base and plays pretty good defense (that one play notwithstanding). He just isn't the offensive force that the Pirates have been looking for; Clint Hurdle minimizes the power shortage by leading him off and hoping that the power bats knock him in.

Starling Marte is one of my favorite players. He doesn't really get any press, but he's been very good for his entire career. This year, he cut out the strikeouts and played incredible outfield defense, maybe even Gold Glove caliber at LF. He hit .287/.337/.444 and added some home runs to his arsenal (19), though his ISO stayed the same. He even steals bases (30 this year, 30 last year), and can generally take the extra base on a ball in play. 

Luckily for Arrieta, Marte struggles against cutters, though perhaps he struggles against them because they've been thrown at him by Jake Arrieta. 

The Pirates are generally pull hitters. Pedro Alvarez, as you would expect given his hitting profile, is the biggest pull hitter on the team now that Kang is injured, but both Marte and Walker are also big pull guys. It's easy to imagine a Marte groundball to the left side deciding a run in this game; he's probably the biggest candidate on the team to cause an error for either Russell or CUBS 3B, so if that happens, it isn't completely out of the blue.

 

Sometimes I forget just how good Andrew McCutchen really is. His lowest OBP in the last 4 years is .400; he had 673 PA that season, hit 31 HR, and recorded 6.8 WAR on his way to a 3rd place MVP vote (he won it the next year). Cutch isn't as fast as he used to be, but he can still burn you on the basepaths; pair that with Montero's seeming inability to throw runners out this year and you can imagine him pushing the envelope in an attempt to score runs. A game in which McCutchen DOESN'T reach base in a game in which you have to think the Cubs have won.

Andrew McCutchen is basically the only Pirate that has had success against Jake Arrieta. In 27 plate appearances, he's batted .348/.444/.435. If you think that's unfair to Jake due to his early-career struggles, that's not exactly true: in 2015, Cutch went .333/.467/.417. McCutchen is an MVP-caliber player; the only one the Pirates have. You can afford to pitch around him and force the rest of this lineup to beat you.

The other two offensive players with a long book on Arrieta have really, really struggled. In 21 PA, Aramis Ramirez went .105/.190/.105 and literally did not reach base against him this year. Pedro Alvarez went .118/.211/.284 on him in his career. As can be assumed with nearly every hitter in baseball, Arrieta has been a ton to handle this season.

Aramis Ramirez does not strike out. Unfortunately for him, he doesn't really get on base either. He owns a .246/.297/.423 line this year; he can still hurt you with his power but he'll have the second lowest OBP in the starting lineup. It's sort of ridiculous how often he makes contact; This year, he made contact with 90.0% percent of pitches he swung at in the strike zone (average is 86.7%) and 83.5% of pitches out of the zone (average is 78.9%); pair that with an extremely aggressive approach and Ramirez does not really have long plate appearances. This is a good thing for a pitcher hoping to get through 8 innings, like Arrieta. 

Neil Walker is extremely steady. You know you are going to get a wRC+ around 110, average defense at 2B, home run totals in the teens. That player has tremendous value, especially at the $8 million the Pirates paid him. Walker is another good baserunner and a switch hitter; unfortunately, he's much, much better from the left side than he is from the right. for all intents and purposes, consider him a lefty (and a pull lefty at that). 

When I think of Pedro Alvarez, I'm always thinking that he sucks – and defensively, that's true. He's a full-time DH at this point, someone who struggles to even play first base badly. What surprised me is how relatively new this phenomenon is. He was a bad defender last year, and then only below average before then. If he's only averagely bad at first, you can swallow a .243/.318/.469 line with 27 HR (what he hit this year). In a one-game series, I think they'll probably stick with him there, though there are rumblings of replacing him with Sean Rodriguez. 

Alvarez has made real progress with reducing his strikeouts lately. He sits at a 26.7% rate for the year. That's bad, but it isn't in the 30s like it was for the 2011-2013 seasons. He's always drawn his walks, and high-variance players like Alvarez are precisely the ones that can ruin the day of a very good pitcher like Jake. If it makes sense, Kyle Hendricks would rather face Pedro Alvarez more than Jake Arrieta would.

Francisco Cervelli has been the revelation of the year for the Pirates. Injuries and perceived ineffective have made Cervelli into the bottom half of a platoon for his entire career until 2015, where he signed a $1 million contract to replace Russell Martin. He did almost exactly that; he posted a .295/.370/.401 line with elite catcher defense this season. He isn't going to crush the ball out of the park, but he will get on base with high regularity, and that's extremely important. His talents are somewhat wasted at the 7th spot in the lineup, what with Mercer and Cole to follow him, but that's where he hits anyway.

Jordy Mercer hasn't been very good this year. Mercer's ticket to MLB paychecks in the past have been "play very good defense, and hit just enough to justify keeping him around and batting him 8th." Unfortunately for Jordy, his power completely evaporated this season, so while his walks and strikeouts stayed the same, his offense was just about the worst in baseball this season.

Lowest wOBA, >400 innings
Name Team wOBA wRC+
Omar Infante Royals 0.238 44
J.J. Hardy Orioles 0.248 49
Ichiro Suzuki Marlins 0.250 53
Billy Hamilton Reds 0.251 52
Chris Owings Diamondbacks 0.255 52
Carlos Sanchez White Sox 0.262 60
Jordy Mercer Pirates 0.265 68
Wilson Ramos Nationals 0.265 63
Eric Sogard Athletics 0.266 67

That's a very sad list. Mercer is good with the glove, but he's no Simmons or Lindor. That means that after this season, he'll almost certainly struggle to find a spot on a major lineup unless he catches on like a Herrera-type or someone takes a chance on his power returning.

Gerrit Cole is a pretty good hitting pitcher, notching a career .171/.200/.193 line (the league average line for pitchers is .131/.158/.168).

This is the lineup that Arrieta will most likely face. Not a ton of strikeouts, but the power isn't really there either. Barring some defensive miscues, this is a type of lineup Arrieta can and has handled. Opponents hit .185/.236/.271 against Arrieta on the year. His year wOBA against is .225; his second half wOBA against is .186. His wOBA on full counts is identical to Jordy Mercer's wOBA in general (.265). When Gerrit Cole outhits the sum of opponents Arrieta has faced in his last 3 months, you know it's going to be tough for Pittsburgh to score. 

When the Cubs are at the plate:

Dexter Fowler had a really nice stretch of the season in August (where he hit .298/.408/.587). However, since then, he's hit .219/.315/.325. Fowler is definitely a QO guy, and I hope he takes it. That said, I don't think Fowler has a long-term future with this team, considering just how many younger players are in front of him. After the dust settled, Fowler had a .256/.346/.411 season with average (statistically) to below-average (eye test) defense.

One thing that is important is that Fowler will be hitting lefty against Cole in this game. Fowler is a groundball hitter, and many of those groundballs will be hit right at Pedro Alvarez. Much like Marte will test the sometimes spotty defense of Kris Bryant, Fowler is liable to force Alvarez to get at a groundball hit his way. I like his odds there. 

Kyle Schwarber's slump is very overrated. Sure, in his last 28 days, he's hitting .188/.333/.333 (when your slump has an OBP that exceeds the league average, you're doing alright). The problem is merely the steady diet of left-handed pitching that he's seen. Against lefties, Schwarber is an awful .143/.213/.268. Against a righty, like Gerrit Cole, he's hitting .278/.396/.557 on the year. Schwarber has the 9th highest wOBA against righties this year with 200 or more PA. He is truly an elite hitter against the majority pitching hand already, and that's utterly remarkable. No Cub hits righties anything like he does, and if Schwarber isn't in the lineup, the Cubs simply don't have their best lineup out there. 

It's important to note that I have Schwarber in RF and Bryant in LF. That's due to the cavernous left field dimensions in PNC Park. Schwarber is an okay runner, but Bryant is a better runner than he is. 

Kris Bryant is the Cubs MVP this year, if you don't allow pitchers. He did lead the league in strikeouts this year; that may make you blush. I see it as a GREAT thing. Bryant put up a 6 WAR season while having something he clearly needs to work on. I once remarked that players with Bryant's minor league strike rate historically do not succeed in the majors (the best player to come out of AAA with a strikeout rate above 27% at the time was Tyler Flowers). Well, Bryant's strikeout rate went up to 30.6%, and yet nobody cared. That's the leeway you get when you walk 11.8% of the time, hit 26 home runs, and slash .275/.369/.488. 

Bryant has some defensive issues to work on if he wants to play 3B in the future, namely his inexplicable knack for leading Rizzo into the first base line with nearly every throw early on in the season (though to his credit, that quieted down as the season went on). His 6'5" stature also limits his lifespan at the position (Chipper at 6'4" is the only comp I can think of that made it there long-term), but with some offseason fielding work he can probably get another 3-4 years of pretty good defense there (throwing excepted). 

It's interesting to note that Bryant struggles away from Wrigley Field. While at the Friendly Confines, he hits .311/.408/.629. Away from it, he's .243/.333/.360. The latter is still a decent line; the OBP is over half the Pirates' starters in this game. The real issue there is the lack of power, for one reason or another. I'm not concerned any more than I would be, but it's something to look at.

Anthony Rizzo has debatably had the best start to a Cubs career since integration (and as you might know, I don't really consider pre-integration baseball as baseball), and undebatably since Ernie Banks.

Highest OPS, First 5 Cubs seasons, min. 2000 PA
Rk Player OPS+ PA From To G HR OPS Pos
1 Ernie Banks 131 2601 1953 1957 613 136 0.881 *6/5
2 Anthony Rizzo 129 2375 2012 2015 547 101 0.842 *3/H
3 Billy Williams 122 2056 1959 1963 496 74 0.83 *7/9H
4 George Altman 122 2016 1959 1962 539 74 0.836 98/H37
5 Mark Grace 118 3200 1988 1992 751 46 0.788 *3/H
6 Ron Santo 118 3089 1960 1964 734 104 0.808 *5/6H
7 Ryne Sandberg 111 2759 1982 1985 623 60 0.776 *45/H6
8 Jody Davis 100 2338 1981 1985 629 76 0.735 *2/H
9 Starlin Castro 99 3186 2010 2014 740 51 0.735 *6/H

Do you know what the absolute best part is? He's under team control until 2021. That's as long as Kris Bryant, for what it's worth. (And Kyle Schwarber. And Addison Russell.) Anthony chopped down his strikeouts (18.8% to 15.0%), but it came with a tradeoff of weaker overall contact. Trading a sure out (the K) for a maybe out (soft contact) is still a skill, even if turns a .311 BABIP into a .289. Rizzo his .278/.387/.512 with 31 HR, and even stole 17 bases. While he no longer has much of a L/R platoon advantage going, he still does better against righties (.905 OPS).

Something else interesting to note is that Cole likes to pitch lefties down and away. That is actually where Rizzo is at his most effective. I'll be interested to see where Cole decides to pitch Rizzo. Will he try to go away from his bread and butter, or will he go strength on strength?

Let's go back to August 6th. Starlin Castro, the starting SS, goes 0-4. It's the worst season in a career that has had a very bad season in it. He's hitting .236/.271/.304, and he has found himself out of a starting job, and possibly out of the Cubs long-term plans. He doesn't play for 5 days, and when he does, he's a defensive replacement at second base, a position he has never once played in the majors. 

Since that moment, Starlin Castro has hit .353/.373/.588. Not since 2010 has Castro had a streak like that (if you want to see something incredible, go back and look at Castro's 2010 season. His July was just incredible.) I had real doubts that Castro would make the post-season roster a month ago; I'm pretty sure he's starting at second base now. It really is an incredible turnaround. Can a player win Comeback Player of the Month?

The thing about Castro is even when he's really bad (and he is capable of being really bad), he still doesn't really strikeout. He has a preternatural ability to put the bat on the ball; it's just where that ball is going that is sometimes the problem. For that reason, he seems like he'd be best suited batting directly behind the pitcher, and other players that don't get on base. Castro is fast, but not fast enough to escape the double play if his dribblers dribble right to an infielder. When Castro has a .588 slugging, however, you probably want as many players on base in front of him as you can possibly get. 

Miguel Montero's primary contribution to the season as been #wearegood. His secondary contribution has been a surprisingly potent bat in the middle of the Cubs lineup. Mideseason slump aside (where he was battling an injury), Montero has really been a force for the Cubs (at least on the offensive side of the ball). Montero is a lefty, but has a reverse split this year (.749 OPS vs. RHP, .786 vs. LHP). 

The best part of Montero's year is the re-emergence of his on-base skills. Montero reached base in 34.5% of his plate appearances this season, a mark he hadn't reached since 2012 (when he finished 32nd in MVP voting, hilariously). Montero's defensive skills have left a little to be desired this season, but with a bat as good as his, he's still been a good part of the season.

Interestingly, and cryptically, if you go to Addison Russell's B-Ref page you'll see a Steve Horvat sponsors it. The message is just "Salt Lake City, Utah." if you google "steve horvat salt lake city," you get a hit for a law firm in Utah, so I assume it's him. If that's the case, why wouldn't you…you know…include some sort of message? Was this a random adwords hit? Viral marketing for your law firm? I really don't get it. 

If Addison Russell was still an Athletic, I'm fairly sure that Oakland fans would look back on the 2015 season and say "well, that sucked. At least that young shortstop looks promising. I hope we never trade him for a two-month rental." On the Cubs, he was a bit of a disappointment considering the offensive output of the rest of the young Cubs. Russell had a decent first year, but it wasn't earth-shattering. He really struggled against LHP (.527 OPS), but he was better than average against the righties (.746 OPS). That said, he got better as the season progressed, and when he switched to shortstop, he hit .259/.315/.465. Add to that a stellar defensive performance at both positions, and you get a very solid rookie season (3.4 WAR!!!) that almost nobody cares about. Consider that Russell's bWAR matches Castro's career high.

Arrieta hit .152/.163/.266 this year. While he struck out 54.2% of the time, his .114 ISO this year is higher than Francisco Cervelli's. Arrieta's ISO against is .081; it is literally true that Arrieta is likelier to hit for extra bases on a base hit than a random Pirate. Arrieta allowed 56 extra-base hits in 870 PA (6.4% of plate appearances); Arrieta had 4 extra-base hits in 83 PA (4.8% of plate appearances). Isn't that just insane?

It's certainly possible that Tommy La Stella gets the nod instead of Javier Baez here. I lean Javy because he's the better defender and La Stella has a reverse split anyways (taking away the importance of being left-handed). That said, La Stella is "taking grounders at 3B" while Bryant practices in left today. Still, Baez has been great defensively and La Stella is limited in the best of circumstances. Pretty interestingly, Baez had 0.5 fWAR in 28 games, which translates into around 2.8 fWAR if he had the whole season. That was 100% defensive. Baez cut his strikeouts down to 30.0% (!), and only had a .118 ISO. It was evident that he traded his crazy leg kick and upper-tier power for a little more swing control. Javy may still yet carve out a career as a premier power threat, but that only happens if he can get the strikeouts down. Gerrit Cole isn't the type of person to test that out on…so maybe it is Tommy La Stella.

Gerrit Cole had a filthy season. His ERA was 2.60, his FIP was 2.66, and he had 5.4 fWAR. He didn't walk anyone (5.3% walk rate), and his HR/9 rate was less than half of the league average. In an average season, Gerrit Cole probably finishes 2nd or 3rd in Cy Young voting. He might finish 6th this year.

Cole pounds the zone down and away from both lefties and righties, and he throws 96mph heat. His slider is pretty much unhittable.

Both teams are hoping to get through the game with just their starters. If that doesn't happen, the Pirates have the slight edge in bullpens. I like Melancon a lot, even if he doesn't strike out as many as you'd think an elite closer should. He gets away with it by never walking anyone and inducing really shitty contact. Those skills combined to give him 51 saves this year, most in the majors. Tony Watson is similarly dominant; even the other pen arms (Joakim Soria, Joe Blanton, Arquimedes Caminero, Antonio Bastardo) have been great for the Pirates this year. The Cubs bullpen…isn't like that. While Rondon has been great nearly all year, I don't trust Strop or Wood nearly as much as I'd trust their corsair counterparts. I'm freely willing to admit that might be because I've seen way more of the Cubs than the Pirates and thus prejudge them to be worse.

The Pirates' bench took a hit when Kang got hurt. That took Mercer off the bench and put him back into starting duty. Still, Michael Morse and Josh Harrison (former Cub!) are still capable bench bats. After that, it gets light. Meanwhile, Jorge Soler and Tommy La Stella are capable starters that just don't happen to have a starting job with the Cubs. Chris Coghlan is even better than that. I haven't even mentioned Austin Jackson, who has a punchers chance at starting in this game and has been great for the Cubs since he was acquired. I think that the Cubs' ability to put great pinch hitters in to face whomever the matchup dictates more than neutralizes the difference in bullpen quality.

It's impossible to predict one game of baseball, but everything seems to lean slightly to the Cubs here. The Cubs have the better lineup and the better pitcher. They have the deeper bench (not really important in a one-game playoff, but you never know), and the bullpen isn't so much worse that it matters overmuch. 

I can't wait for this game.

 

 

 

31 thoughts on “Cubs v. Pirates – October 7, 2015”

  1. I’d put Coghlan in LF. I know Bryant is athletic, but I think I’d like a natural outfielder playing the toughest LF in baseball. I like the possibility of using Baez against the lefty (Watson) late in the game.

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  2. The difference in bullpens is what scares me, but at the same time the Cubs bench is so much better that it should even that up. Somehow, I still come back to the bullpens and I think the Pirates have a bigger edge here than myles does. I still think the Cubs win, but I think it’s going to be close and hopefully a fun game.

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  4. It’s here. Jake Arrieta vs. Gerrit Cole. Let’s do this.

    Lineups (my best guess)

    Pirates

    RF Polanco (L)
    LF Marte (R)
    CF McCutchen (R)
    3B Ramirez (R)
    2B Walker (S)
    1B Alvarez (L)
    C Cervelli (R)
    SS Mercer (R)
    SP Cole (R)

    Cubs

    CF Fowler (S)
    RF Schwarber (L)
    LF Bryant (R)
    1B Rizzo (L)
    2B Castro (R)
    C Montero (L)
    SS Russell (R)
    SP Arrieta (R)
    3B Baez (R)

    When the Pirates are at bat:

    As excellent has Arrieta has been, he’s “only” been great in strikeouts this year. Pedro Alvarez aside, the Pirates don’t strike out too often. Since Kang is injured and Sean Rodriguez does not figure to start in this game, only Alvarez is even league average in strikeout rate this year. The point I’m trying to get at is that I would expect a good amount of balls in play, which does increase (slightly) the variance of outcomes for Arrieta. Since Arrieta is an incredible pitcher, the increased variance is a bad thing.

    Gregory Polanco has been an unquestioned disappointment this season. Polanco is the only outfielder on the team with an OPS+ under 100 (it’s 92). Even worse, his power just hasn’t been there; an ISO of .125 isn’t what you are hoping for from your everyday rightfielder.

    ISO among qualified RF, 2015
    Name Team ISO wOBA wRC+ WAR
    Bryce Harper Nationals 0.319 0.461 198 9.5
    Jose Bautista Blue Jays 0.285 0.389 148 4.5
    Carlos Gonzalez Rockies 0.269 0.364 114 2.4
    Nelson Cruz Mariners 0.264 0.396 158 4.8
    J.D. Martinez Tigers 0.253 0.372 137 5
    Ryan Braun Brewers 0.213 0.366 129 2.8
    Jay Bruce Reds 0.209 0.309 91 0.1
    Marlon Byrd – – – 0.206 0.317 100 1
    Curtis Granderson Mets 0.198 0.357 132 5.1
    Carlos Beltran Yankees 0.195 0.346 119 1.9
    Shin-Soo Choo Rangers 0.187 0.365 127 3.5
    Mark Trumbo – – – 0.187 0.327 108 1.1
    Brandon Moss – – – 0.181 0.308 94 0.6
    Matt Kemp Padres 0.178 0.325 110 0.4
    Josh Reddick Athletics 0.177 0.338 117 3
    Torii Hunter Twins 0.169 0.304 90 0.5
    Kole Calhoun Angels 0.167 0.317 105 3.8
    Gerardo Parra – – – 0.161 0.334 108 0.4
    Jason Heyward Cardinals 0.146 0.346 121 6
    Gregory Polanco Pirates 0.125 0.304 94 2.3
    Avisail Garcia White Sox 0.108 0.295 83 -1.1
    Ender Inciarte Diamondbacks 0.105 0.325 101 3.3
    Nick Markakis Braves 0.08 0.327 107 1.6
    This isn’t to say that Polanco doesn’t have redeeming qualities. He gets on base and plays pretty good defense (that one play notwithstanding). He just isn’t the offensive force that the Pirates have been looking for; Clint Hurdle minimizes the power shortage by leading him off and hoping that the power bats knock him in.

    Starling Marte is one of my favorite players. He doesn’t really get any press, but he’s been very good for his entire career. This year, he cut out the strikeouts and played incredible outfield defense, maybe even Gold Glove caliber at LF. He hit .287/.337/.444 and added some home runs to his arsenal (19), though his ISO stayed the same. He even steals bases (30 this year, 30 last year), and can generally take the extra base on a ball in play.

    Luckily for Arrieta, Marte struggles against cutters, though perhaps he struggles against them because they’ve been thrown at him by Jake Arrieta.

    The Pirates are generally pull hitters. Pedro Alvarez, as you would expect given his hitting profile, is the biggest pull hitter on the team now that Kang is injured, but both Marte and Walker are also big pull guys. It’s easy to imagine a Marte groundball to the left side deciding a run in this game; he’s probably the biggest candidate on the team to cause an error for either Russell or CUBS 3B, so if that happens, it isn’t completely out of the blue.

    Sometimes I forget just how good Andrew McCutchen really is. His lowest OBP in the last 4 years is .400; he had 673 PA that season, hit 31 HR, and recorded 6.8 WAR on his way to a 3rd place MVP vote (he won it the next year). Cutch isn’t as fast as he used to be, but he can still burn you on the basepaths; pair that with Montero’s seeming inability to throw runners out this year and you can imagine him pushing the envelope in an attempt to score runs. A game in which McCutchen DOESN’T reach base in a game in which you have to think the Cubs have won.

    Andrew McCutchen is basically the only Pirate that has had success against Jake Arrieta. In 27 plate appearances, he’s batted .348/.444/.435. If you think that’s unfair to Jake due to his early-career struggles, that’s not exactly true: in 2015, Cutch went .333/.467/.417. McCutchen is an MVP-caliber player; the only one the Pirates have. You can afford to pitch around him and force the rest of this lineup to beat you.

    The other two offensive players with a long book on Arrieta have really, really struggled. In 21 PA, Aramis Ramirez went .105/.190/.105 and literally did not reach base against him this year. Pedro Alvarez went .118/.211/.284 on him in his career. As can be assumed with nearly every hitter in baseball, Arrieta has been a ton to handle this season.

    Aramis Ramirez does not strike out. Unfortunately for him, he doesn’t really get on base either. He owns a .246/.297/.423 line this year; he can still hurt you with his power but he’ll have the second lowest OBP in the starting lineup. It’s sort of ridiculous how often he makes contact; This year, he made contact with 90.0% percent of pitches he swung at in the strike zone (average is 86.7%) and 83.5% of pitches out of the zone (average is 78.9%); pair that with an extremely aggressive approach and Ramirez does not really have long plate appearances. This is a good thing for a pitcher hoping to get through 8 innings, like Arrieta.

    Neil Walker is extremely steady. You know you are going to get a wRC+ around 110, average defense at 2B, home run totals in the teens. That player has tremendous value, especially at the $8 million the Pirates paid him. Walker is another good baserunner and a switch hitter; unfortunately, he’s much, much better from the left side than he is from the right. for all intents and purposes, consider him a lefty (and a pull lefty at that).

    When I think of Pedro Alvarez, I’m always thinking that he sucks – and defensively, that’s true. He’s a full-time DH at this point, someone who struggles to even play first base badly. What surprised me is how relatively new this phenomenon is. He was a bad defender last year, and then only below average before then. If he’s only averagely bad at first, you can swallow a .243/.318/.469 line with 27 HR (what he hit this year). In a one-game series, I think they’ll probably stick with him there, though there are rumblings of replacing him with Sean Rodriguez.

    Alvarez has made real progress with reducing his strikeouts lately. He sits at a 26.7% rate for the year. That’s bad, but it isn’t in the 30s like it was for the 2011-2013 seasons. He’s always drawn his walks, and high-variance players like Alvarez are precisely the ones that can ruin the day of a very good pitcher like Jake. If it makes sense, Kyle Hendricks would rather face Pedro Alvarez more than Jake Arrieta would.

    Francisco Cervelli has been the revelation of the year for the Pirates. Injuries and perceived ineffective have made Cervelli into the bottom half of a platoon for his entire career until 2015, where he signed a $1 million contract to replace Russell Martin. He did almost exactly that; he posted a .295/.370/.401 line with elite catcher defense this season. He isn’t going to crush the ball out of the park, but he will get on base with high regularity, and that’s extremely important. His talents are somewhat wasted at the 7th spot in the lineup, what with Mercer and Cole to follow him, but that’s where he hits anyway.

    Jordy Mercer hasn’t been very good this year. Mercer’s ticket to MLB paychecks in the past have been “play very good defense, and hit just enough to justify keeping him around and batting him 8th.” Unfortunately for Jordy, his power completely evaporated this season, so while his walks and strikeouts stayed the same, his offense was just about the worst in baseball this season.

    Lowest wOBA, >400 innings
    Name Team wOBA wRC+
    Omar Infante Royals 0.238 44
    J.J. Hardy Orioles 0.248 49
    Ichiro Suzuki Marlins 0.250 53
    Billy Hamilton Reds 0.251 52
    Chris Owings Diamondbacks 0.255 52
    Carlos Sanchez White Sox 0.262 60
    Jordy Mercer Pirates 0.265 68
    Wilson Ramos Nationals 0.265 63
    Eric Sogard Athletics 0.266 67
    That’s a very sad list. Mercer is good with the glove, but he’s no Simmons or Lindor. That means that after this season, he’ll almost certainly struggle to find a spot on a major lineup unless he catches on like a Herrera-type or someone takes a chance on his power returning.

    Gerrit Cole is a pretty good hitting pitcher, notching a career .171/.200/.193 line (the league average line for pitchers is .131/.158/.168).

    This is the lineup that Arrieta will most likely face. Not a ton of strikeouts, but the power isn’t really there either. Barring some defensive miscues, this is a type of lineup Arrieta can and has handled. Opponents hit .185/.236/.271 against Arrieta on the year. His year wOBA against is .225; his second half wOBA against is .186. His wOBA on full counts is identical to Jordy Mercer’s wOBA in general (.265). When Gerrit Cole outhits the sum of opponents Arrieta has faced in his last 3 months, you know it’s going to be tough for Pittsburgh to score.

    When the Cubs are at the plate:

    Dexter Fowler had a really nice stretch of the season in August (where he hit .298/.408/.587). However, since then, he’s hit .219/.315/.325. Fowler is definitely a QO guy, and I hope he takes it. That said, I don’t think Fowler has a long-term future with this team, considering just how many younger players are in front of him. After the dust settled, Fowler had a .256/.346/.411 season with average (statistically) to below-average (eye test) defense.

    One thing that is important is that Fowler will be hitting lefty against Cole in this game. Fowler is a groundball hitter, and many of those groundballs will be hit right at Pedro Alvarez. Much like Marte will test the sometimes spotty defense of Kris Bryant, Fowler is liable to force Alvarez to get at a groundball hit his way. I like his odds there.

    Kyle Schwarber’s slump is very overrated. Sure, in his last 28 days, he’s hitting .188/.333/.333 (when your slump has an OBP that exceeds the league average, you’re doing alright). The problem is merely the steady diet of left-handed pitching that he’s seen. Against lefties, Schwarber is an awful .143/.213/.268. Against a righty, like Gerrit Cole, he’s hitting .278/.396/.557 on the year. Schwarber has the 9th highest wOBA against righties this year with 200 or more PA. He is truly an elite hitter against the majority pitching hand already, and that’s utterly remarkable. No Cub hits righties anything like he does, and if Schwarber isn’t in the lineup, the Cubs simply don’t have their best lineup out there.

    It’s important to note that I have Schwarber in RF and Bryant in LF. That’s due to the cavernous left field dimensions in PNC Park. Schwarber is an okay runner, but Bryant is a better runner than he is.

    Kris Bryant is the Cubs MVP this year, if you don’t allow pitchers. He did lead the league in strikeouts this year; that may make you blush. I see it as a GREAT thing. Bryant put up a 6 WAR season while having something he clearly needs to work on. I once remarked that players with Bryant’s minor league strike rate historically do not succeed in the majors (the best player to come out of AAA with a strikeout rate above 27% at the time was Tyler Flowers). Well, Bryant’s strikeout rate went up to 30.6%, and yet nobody cared. That’s the leeway you get when you walk 11.8% of the time, hit 26 home runs, and slash .275/.369/.488.

    Bryant has some defensive issues to work on if he wants to play 3B in the future, namely his inexplicable knack for leading Rizzo into the first base line with nearly every throw early on in the season (though to his credit, that quieted down as the season went on). His 6’5″ stature also limits his lifespan at the position (Chipper at 6’4″ is the only comp I can think of that made it there long-term), but with some offseason fielding work he can probably get another 3-4 years of pretty good defense there (throwing excepted).

    It’s interesting to note that Bryant struggles away from Wrigley Field. While at the Friendly Confines, he hits .311/.408/.629. Away from it, he’s .243/.333/.360. The latter is still a decent line; the OBP is over half the Pirates’ starters in this game. The real issue there is the lack of power, for one reason or another. I’m not concerned any more than I would be, but it’s something to look at.

    Anthony Rizzo has debatably had the best start to a Cubs career since integration (and as you might know, I don’t really consider pre-integration baseball as baseball), and undebatably since Ernie Banks.

    Highest OPS, First 5 Cubs seasons, min. 2000 PA
    Rk Player OPS+ PA From To G HR OPS Pos
    1 Ernie Banks 131 2601 1953 1957 613 136 0.881 *6/5
    2 Anthony Rizzo 129 2375 2012 2015 547 101 0.842 *3/H
    3 Billy Williams 122 2056 1959 1963 496 74 0.83 *7/9H
    4 George Altman 122 2016 1959 1962 539 74 0.836 98/H37
    5 Mark Grace 118 3200 1988 1992 751 46 0.788 *3/H
    6 Ron Santo 118 3089 1960 1964 734 104 0.808 *5/6H
    7 Ryne Sandberg 111 2759 1982 1985 623 60 0.776 *45/H6
    8 Jody Davis 100 2338 1981 1985 629 76 0.735 *2/H
    9 Starlin Castro 99 3186 2010 2014 740 51 0.735 *6/H
    Do you know what the absolute best part is? He’s under team control until 2021. That’s as long as Kris Bryant, for what it’s worth. (And Kyle Schwarber. And Addison Russell.) Anthony chopped down his strikeouts (18.8% to 15.0%), but it came with a tradeoff of weaker overall contact. Trading a sure out (the K) for a maybe out (soft contact) is still a skill, even if turns a .311 BABIP into a .289. Rizzo his .278/.387/.512 with 31 HR, and even stole 17 bases. While he no longer has much of a L/R platoon advantage going, he still does better against righties (.905 OPS).

    Something else interesting to note is that Cole likes to pitch lefties down and away. That is actually where Rizzo is at his most effective. I’ll be interested to see where Cole decides to pitch Rizzo. Will he try to go away from his bread and butter, or will he go strength on strength?

    Let’s go back to August 6th. Starlin Castro, the starting SS, goes 0-4. It’s the worst season in a career that has had a very bad season in it. He’s hitting .236/.271/.304, and he has found himself out of a starting job, and possibly out of the Cubs long-term plans. He doesn’t play for 5 days, and when he does, he’s a defensive replacement at second base, a position he has never once played in the majors.

    Since that moment, Starlin Castro has hit .353/.373/.588. Not since 2010 has Castro had a streak like that (if you want to see something incredible, go back and look at Castro’s 2010 season. His July was just incredible.) I had real doubts that Castro would make the post-season roster a month ago; I’m pretty sure he’s starting at second base now. It really is an incredible turnaround. Can a player win Comeback Player of the Month?

    The thing about Castro is even when he’s really bad (and he is capable of being really bad), he still doesn’t really strikeout. He has a preternatural ability to put the bat on the ball; it’s just where that ball is going that is sometimes the problem. For that reason, he seems like he’d be best suited batting directly behind the pitcher, and other players that don’t get on base. Castro is fast, but not fast enough to escape the double play if his dribblers dribble right to an infielder. When Castro has a .588 slugging, however, you probably want as many players on base in front of him as you can possibly get.

    Miguel Montero’s primary contribution to the season as been #wearegood. His secondary contribution has been a surprisingly potent bat in the middle of the Cubs lineup. Mideseason slump aside (where he was battling an injury), Montero has really been a force for the Cubs (at least on the offensive side of the ball). Montero is a lefty, but has a reverse split this year (.749 OPS vs. RHP, .786 vs. LHP).

    The best part of Montero’s year is the re-emergence of his on-base skills. Montero reached base in 34.5% of his plate appearances this season, a mark he hadn’t reached since 2012 (when he finished 32nd in MVP voting, hilariously). Montero’s defensive skills have left a little to be desired this season, but with a bat as good as his, he’s still been a good part of the season.

    Interestingly, and cryptically, if you go to Addison Russell’s B-Ref page you’ll see a Steve Horvat sponsors it. The message is just “Salt Lake City, Utah.” if you google “steve horvat salt lake city,” you get a hit for a law firm in Utah, so I assume it’s him. If that’s the case, why wouldn’t you…you know…include some sort of message? Was this a random adwords hit? Viral marketing for your law firm? I really don’t get it.

    If Addison Russell was still an Athletic, I’m fairly sure that Oakland fans would look back on the 2015 season and say “well, that sucked. At least that young shortstop looks promising. I hope we never trade him for a two-month rental.” On the Cubs, he was a bit of a disappointment considering the offensive output of the rest of the young Cubs. Russell had a decent first year, but it wasn’t earth-shattering. He really struggled against LHP (.527 OPS), but he was better than average against the righties (.746 OPS). That said, he got better as the season progressed, and when he switched to shortstop, he hit .259/.315/.465. Add to that a stellar defensive performance at both positions, and you get a very solid rookie season (3.4 WAR!!!) that almost nobody cares about. Consider that Russell’s bWAR matches Castro’s career high.

    Arrieta hit .152/.163/.266 this year. While he struck out 54.2% of the time, his .114 ISO this year is higher than Francisco Cervelli’s. Arrieta’s ISO against is .081; it is literally true that Arrieta is likelier to hit for extra bases on a base hit than a random Pirate. Arrieta allowed 56 extra-base hits in 870 PA (6.4% of plate appearances); Arrieta had 4 extra-base hits in 83 PA (4.8% of plate appearances). Isn’t that just insane?

    It’s certainly possible that Tommy La Stella gets the nod instead of Javier Baez here. I lean Javy because he’s the better defender and La Stella has a reverse split anyways (taking away the importance of being left-handed). That said, La Stella is “taking grounders at 3B” while Bryant practices in left today. Still, Baez has been great defensively and La Stella is limited in the best of circumstances. Pretty interestingly, Baez had 0.5 fWAR in 28 games, which translates into around 2.8 fWAR if he had the whole season. That was 100% defensive. Baez cut his strikeouts down to 30.0% (!), and only had a .118 ISO. It was evident that he traded his crazy leg kick and upper-tier power for a little more swing control. Javy may still yet carve out a career as a premier power threat, but that only happens if he can get the strikeouts down. Gerrit Cole isn’t the type of person to test that out on…so maybe it is Tommy La Stella.

    Gerrit Cole had a filthy season. His ERA was 2.60, his FIP was 2.66, and he had 5.4 fWAR. He didn’t walk anyone (5.3% walk rate), and his HR/9 rate was less than half of the league average. In an average season, Gerrit Cole probably finishes 2nd or 3rd in Cy Young voting. He might finish 6th this year.

    Cole pounds the zone down and away from both lefties and righties, and he throws 96mph heat. His slider is pretty much unhittable.

    Both teams are hoping to get through the game with just their starters. If that doesn’t happen, the Pirates have the slight edge in bullpens. I like Melancon a lot, even if he doesn’t strike out as many as you’d think an elite closer should. He gets away with it by never walking anyone and inducing really shitty contact. Those skills combined to give him 51 saves this year, most in the majors. Tony Watson is similarly dominant; even the other pen arms (Joakim Soria, Joe Blanton, Arquimedes Caminero, Antonio Bastardo) have been great for the Pirates this year. The Cubs bullpen…isn’t like that. While Rondon has been great nearly all year, I don’t trust Strop or Wood nearly as much as I’d trust their corsair counterparts. I’m freely willing to admit that might be because I’ve seen way more of the Cubs than the Pirates and thus prejudge them to be worse.

    The Pirates’ bench took a hit when Kang got hurt. That took Mercer off the bench and put him back into starting duty. Still, Michael Morse and Josh Harrison (former Cub!) are still capable bench bats. After that, it gets light. Meanwhile, Jorge Soler and Tommy La Stella are capable starters that just don’t happen to have a starting job with the Cubs. Chris Coghlan is even better than that. I haven’t even mentioned Austin Jackson, who has a punchers chance at starting in this game and has been great for the Cubs since he was acquired. I think that the Cubs’ ability to put great pinch hitters in to face whomever the matchup dictates more than neutralizes the difference in bullpen quality.

    It’s impossible to predict one game of baseball, but everything seems to lean slightly to the Cubs here. The Cubs have the better lineup and the better pitcher. They have the deeper bench (not really important in a one-game playoff, but you never know), and the bullpen isn’t so much worse that it matters overmuch.

    I can’t wait for this game.

    False.

    /obligatory

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  6. Excellent false post Myles.

    I’m nervous about having three guys (four if you count Castro) in positions they haven’t played much ever, but I want Schwarber in the lineup and I think if the Pirates win it’s going to be on one long ball, not from hitting the ball around the park. I believe Arrieta will go deep making the bullpen question less important. I buy Myles’ argument against Coghlan, and although I was hoping for Baez originally, it’s unlikely a guy who’s barely started will be in the starting lineup. So La Stella, make some contact jabroni.

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  8. I’m so geeked about this game that I’m having trouble forming any sort of opinion on strategy. I’m just looking forward to watching (for once).

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  9. uncle dave:
    I’m so geeked about this game that I’m having trouble forming any sort of opinion on strategy.I’m just looking forward to watching (for once).

    I hadn’t give it much thought until I read this great article, but now that I have, I’m sold on Coghlan starting tomorrow.

    Among Cubs players with 50 or more PA against RHP this year, the only players with a higher wRC+ than Coghlan (125) are Schwarber (161), Rizzo (145) and Bryant (141). His ISO against RHP is comparable to Bryant’s (.215 vs .212). I won’t be surprised at anything, but I’m not sure the Cubs can field their best team tomorrow without Chris Coghlan in LF (assuming Kyle Schwarber is in RF). Even this season when Baez was a better hitter, he sucked against righties. I know he hit a home run against Cole, but don’t you have to go with the left-handed hitter who hits righties well and is a natural outfielder in a ballpark that almost demands natural outfielders?

    Coghlan’s wRC+ vs righties last year was 131. Career 112.

    My predicted lineup: Fowler, Schwarber (RF), Bryant (3B), Rizzo, Coghlan (LF), Montero, Castro, Arrieta, Russell

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  11. Myles: The tea leaves point otherwise

    I think they do too. I’m just choosing to believe some of that is to just get players ready to play any position. I guess we’ll see tomorrow.

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  14. Offense aside, who do you trust more in LF, bryant or coghlan? I gotta think baez 3B and bryant LF is better defensively than bryant 3B and coghlan LF. At PNC, anyway.

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  15. Defensively, due to the uniqueness of LF at PNC, I’d lean toward Coghlan in LF. Even if there’s a small advantage the other way, it’s eliminated and then some with Baez facing a RHP.

    I don’t think Baez gets the start at 3rd anyway. La Stella probably does if Coghlan isn’t in the lineup.

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  17. Interestingly, and cryptically, if you go to Addison Russell’s B-Ref page you’ll see a Steve Horvat sponsors it. The message is just “Salt Lake City, Utah.” if you google “steve horvat salt lake city,” you get a hit for a law firm in Utah, so I assume it’s him. If that’s the case, why wouldn’t you…you know…include some sort of message? Was this a random adwords hit? Viral marketing for your law firm? I really don’t get it.

    It’s called “stealth marketing”. Don’t tell anyone.

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  20. FWIW, if Coghlan does start I think we see the lefty-stacked lineup that Maddon used a bunch this year

    CF Fowler (S)
    RF Schwarber (L)
    1B Rizzo (L)
    LF Coghlan (L)
    3B Bryant (R)
    C Montero (L)
    2B Castro (R)
    DOW Arrieta
    SS Russell (R)

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  21. Yesterday, ESPN showed the likely Cy Young Award recipient winning the Wild Card Game on the road. Tonight, TBS is showing the same thing. What happened to original programming?

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