Daily Facepalm 3.19.12 – Weekend of Samardzija

In Facepalm by berselius233 Comments

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Playing Time Projections

Please take a few moments to fill out the 2012 Cubs playing time projections. It's as simple as possible.

Weekend practice game roundup

Geovany Soto homered, doubled, and walked in Saturday's game, so it looks like he's feeling better from his groin injury. Steve Clevenger, Adrian Cardenas, and Joe Mather also homered this weekend. Tony Campana broke his hitless streak with a hit or two but is probably out of a spot on the roster at this point.

On the pitching side, both Jeff Samardzija (more on him later) and Chris Volstad both had yet another solid outing. Maholm got into trouble in his outing thanks to a Josh Vitters error extending the inning, but largely did Maholm things. Casey Coleman pitched three scoreless innings (put him in the rotation!!!1!), and Andy Sonnanstine likely pitched himself into being released. James Russell also had a lousy outing, quieting the ridiculous talk that he could step in for Sean Marshall. He's a good LOOGY, not a shutdown setup man.

Is there a Cubs game today?

The Cubs play the Mariners at 3:05 PM CT. Travis Wood will start for the Cubs. Len and Mick will have the call on mlb.com gameday. Randy Wells is also starting an even less official "B" game against the Indians.

MO's nightmare ends

Mercurial Outfielder was last seen clutching a bottle of quadruple-hopped IPA and muttering "the horror….the horror". Hopefully someone will tell him that

The bunting tournament is over, and leadoff hitter David DeJesus is the last player standing.

Roster taking shape

In case you missed all the consternation yesterday, Dale Sveum says that Samardzija is "close" to locking up a rotation spot. The rest of the non-bullpen roster seems to be taking shape as well. Joe Mather and Blake DeWitt seem to have taken a big lead for the last two position player spots, and Rafael Dolis has a vote of confidence to replace Samardzija in the 7th inning role.

News in Maddicies

Mike Maddux said that if he had come to manage the Cubs, his brother would have come along as the pitching coach.

Or not, as both brothers backtracked on the comments the next day, and Mike Maddux says he never withdrew his name from consideration either. No hard feelings, he thinks that Sveum more than deserved the job.

Cubs did make a credible offer for Cespedes

6/36 – same money, but two more years than what he got from the A's

A look at how the scouting department is shaking up

Phil Rogers wrote a profile of Jason McLeod and the changes he's bringing to the Cubs scouting organization. One thing they're trying to do is make sure that every scout they have has a video camera to send video along with their reports to the Hall of Justice.

An outside perspective on the Cubs

Tom Loxas at Cubs Den interviewed a NL scout on what he saw in Cubs camp. He likes what he sees from the Cubs coaching staff and think that they could make a difference on Castro's defense. He's also very down on Bryan LaHair.

In case you wanted to know everything about the Cubs 40-man roster and rules thereof

TCR has a breakdown of the roster, as well as everyone's options status. To call this exhaustive would be a vast understatement. (h/t @AJWalsh)

Obstructed View Bracket Challenge update

WaLi and Mish are tied for first place in the Bracket challenge, with 440 points each. WaLi also has the most possible points remaining in his bracket with 1280, thanks to an entirely intact elite eight. GBTS is in last place.

Revenue sharing and college football conferences

MB21 wrote a post on DailyBigTen (where former Cubs blogger and TOOTBLAN progenitor wrigleyville23 now writes) about revenue sharing and the Big Ten vs the SEC. It's a good read.

Nerd video of the day

Just because I watched a ton of it yesterday. Season two is less than two weeks away! Even better, Game of Thrones set all sorts of sales records for HBO dvds, so this series isn't going away anytime soon.

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Comments

  1. Author
    Berselius

    Suburban kid wrote:

    Joe Mather?

    While I’ve always thought Campana didn’t belong on even a 6th place MLB team, I thought maybe Sappelt or someone who hasn’t sucked in multiple MLB seasons would get the job. And if they’re carrying DeWitt and Baker, they don’t need the fifth OF to be able to play IF.

    I disagree, and think this is the main reason he’ll get the spot. Without Mather, if the Cubs face a lefty either LaHair or Stewart (or DeWitt) would have to be in the lineup, since Jeff Baker can’t play 1B and 3B at the same time.

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  2. Author
    Berselius

    Doug etetectdsaaga wrote:

    I mean the guy got huge overslot money for a reason.

    That reason was the MPH on his fastball, not any expectation that he’d be better at controlling it than anyone else. Plus the knock on Samardzija for years was that even with the velo the movement on his fastball sucked.

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  3. Doug etetectdsaaga

    mb21 wrote:

    I would never say something silly like Dempster had a bad season last year. Just because lot’s of people are stupid and say that doesn’t mean I do.

    And I know larger samples are more useful. I’m not denying that. But looking at in various ways there are signs that he’s figured something out and is a much better pitcher than his overall numbers from last year indicate. I don’t necessarily think he’ll be good. I’d put it at maybe 20% that he’s a sub 4.00FIP pitcher. But for me that 20% is worth it. I understand why people think he’s not going to be particularly good, but everyone is acting as like this is absolutely a bad decision and there is no real evidence pointing towards it making sense, but I can see exactly why the guys in the Front Office think this is worth trying. Shark is never gonna be an ace. There’s almost no possible way in hell. Or a #1. But there is a real possibility he figured out how to get pitches in the strike zone at a reasonable rate and can be a solid pitcher for a few years. If we look at a rare case like Cliff Lee he had a walk rate of 3.1 per 9 through his first 741 major league innings. Since then he’s had a BB rate of 1.4 per 9.

    That’s craziness. But let’s say it’s possible for a pitcher to lower their walk rate by 1.7 per 9, then it’s possible, I think, that the 3.7~ walk rate Shark showed towards the end of the year is his true talent walk rate. If he can manage to keep that up while striking out 7.5 or so guys per 9 as well, then he is a pretty useful starter as long as he doesn’t give up an inordinate number of home runs.

    It’s not the most likely thing in the world, but it’s still very possible that he’s useful and it makes sense that the Cubs management team would want to see if it’s just a good stretch or something has actually changed. Wood is only 24, he can come up later in the year when someone is traded, he has options anyways so it really doesn’t hurt him. Volstad is 25 and can be given the 5th spot and Wells, in my opinion, doesn’t have a ton better chance than Shark of being a good pitcher because it’s possible his stuff may never come all the way back and he’s just not very good anymore. And given that Shark is also 3 years younger and under team control, I think that makes him a better pick than Wells.

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  4. Doug etetectdsaaga

    Berselius wrote:

    I’m well aware of the movement thing. Though I think that’s somewhat overblown. I’m also aware that the velocity is why he got that money. And that’s kind of my point. If his results moving through last year, when he showed much improved command are real, then it’s possible he figured out how to control said fastball/pitches. And if he has, which is at the very least possible, he could be a decent starting pitcher.

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  5. WaLi

    I’m in first? I have no idea how that happened. I just somewhat randomly picked teams. I guess most people here did the same (dying laughing)

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  6. Mish

    @ WaLi:
    I picked favorites all the way through. So while I took some hard losses, I still have my Final Four in place, which is nice. I spent all of a minute selecting the better ranked seeds and I’m in first (or tied) in 3 leagues now. Knowing my luck, the only one I will win is this one, in which no money can be won.

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  7. Aisle424

    Mish wrote:

    I picked favorites all the way through. So while I took some hard losses, I still have my Final Four in place, which is nice. I spent all of a minute selecting the better ranked seeds and I’m in first (or tied) in 3 leagues now. Knowing my luck, the only one I will win is this one, in which no money can be won.

    The upsets in this tournament have largely been few, but spectacular.

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  8. Suburban kid

    Berselius wrote:

    I disagree, and think this is the main reason he’ll get the spot. Without Mather, if the Cubs face a lefty either LaHair or Stewart (or DeWitt) would have to be in the lineup, since Jeff Baker can’t play 1B and 3B at the same time.

    You know, we have righty’s facing righty’s every damn day. But since all of a sudden Tom Gorzelanny is starting against you, it’s better to have a guy in the lineup that can’t hit at all?

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  9. Doug etetectdsaaga

    Suburban kid wrote:

    You know, we have righty’s facing righty’s every damn day. But since all of a sudden Tom Gorzelanny is starting against you, it’s better to have a guy in the lineup that can’t hit at all?

    (dying laughing)

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  10. WaLi

    Suburban kid wrote:

    You know, we have righty’s facing righty’s every damn day

    For some reason I read this is “You know, we have righty’s facepalming every damn day” and thought to myself, you are right. There is a lack of southpaw facepalms.

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  11. mb21

    Doug etetectdsaaga wrote:

    I would never say something silly like Dempster had a bad season last year. Just because lot’s of people are stupid and say that doesn’t mean I do.

    I’m not saying you said it, but I’ve seen people on twitter who have said it and I’m sure the average fan is now saying it. It’s just odd. It’s also why cherry picking the stats is never a good idea. We don’t need to cherry pick F7s stats. We have 6 years of his pitching to evaluate.

    This doesn’t mean he hasn’t made some change. It’s entirely possible and that’s all that should be said by those who think that. But if someone is going to talk about the numbers as if they support the argument they’re not looking at the numbers right. If someone just wants to say maybe F7 changed. Fine. It’s when someone looks at his best 40 innings as evidence why it’s a good decision that bothers me.

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  12. mb21

    @ Suburban kid:
    I think what Berselius is hoping is that they use more of a strict platoon. This teams needs as many plate appearances as possible in which they have the platoon advantage. Than again, I’m of the mind that this team should now try to challenge the Astros for the #1 pick. Won’t be easy, but 200 innings from F7 will certainly help achieve that goal.

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  13. Suburban kid

    mb21 wrote:

    I’m of the mind that this team should now try to challenge the Astros for the #1 pick. Won’t be easy, but 200 innings from F7 will certainly help achieve that goal.

    Giving PA to Mather will help too.

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  14. Doug etetectdsaaga

    mb21 wrote:

    I’m not saying you said it, but I’ve seen people on twitter who have said it and I’m sure the average fan is now saying it. It’s just odd. It’s also why cherry picking the stats is never a good idea. We don’t need to cherry pick F7s stats. We have 6 years of his pitching to evaluate.

    This doesn’t mean he hasn’t made some change. It’s entirely possible and that’s all that should be said by those who think that. But if someone is going to talk about the numbers as if they support the argument they’re not looking at the numbers right. If someone just wants to say maybe F7 changed. Fine. It’s when someone looks at his best 40 innings as evidence why it’s a good decision that bothers me.

    Saying “maybe something has changed” with no evidence at all is pretty silly though. I actually have reason to believe he may have made a change and figured something out. And I’m not coming close to “looking at his 40 bets innings”. I’m not just sorting his numbers by K:BB ratio. I’m not just “cherry picking” so much as pointing out that there is evidence that he’s turned a corner. That evidence may not be his entire work from last year but I can’t really give you anything else, and those previous six years is not very useful when talking about a change someone may very well have made last year.

    Also where is this “6 years” thing coming from? Shark was signed in June of 2006. 06, 07, 08, 09, 10. And 06 was only a half season and his first time ever focusing only on baseball. 07, 08, 09 and 10 is four seasons. One of which I’m arguing was actually a lot better than it looks.

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  15. mb21

    Doug etetectdsaaga wrote:

    That evidence may not be his entire work from last year but I can’t really give you anything else, and those previous six years is not very useful when talking about a change someone may very well have made last year.

    Those 40 innings are even less useful when talking about whether or not he made a change. There is no support in the stats that this is a correct decision. There is no support by looking at the stats that he has changed. Bad relievers have outstanding seasons over 40 innings. Happens all the time. And every time fans are wondering if this guy turned a corner. Almost all of the time he has not.

    You could take a look at pitchers who have had similar careers to F7 and then suddenly threw 40 quality innings and you’re going to find that most of those players returned to their career level. Not only that, the Cubs are moving him into the rotation. What did you say his FIP was over his best 40 innings? 3.2 or something? That’s 4.2 as a starter. And now we have to regress that considerably since it was only 40 innings. So even if we take those 40 innings, the expected results of him as a starter are less than impressive and close to replacement level.

    Even if he continued to pitch at that level, he’s still worse than Randy Wells. That’s one of the things that’s frustrating about this. He pitched well in relief, but once you convert those numbers to the rotation they’re league average. If you want to know what to expect in the future you then have to regress that. You’re going to end up somewhere around a 5.3 FIP.

    In my opinion, a 5.3 FIP as a starter is an optimistic projection. People can’t say I’m always negative. I’m speaking about F7 in an optimistic way when I say at his best he’s probably a 5.3 FIP starter. That’s about a win better than the projections as a starter. Still a win below replacement, but that’s based only on his 40 innings from last year as a reliever.

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  16. mb21

    Casey Coleman pitched three scoreless innings (put him in the rotation!!!1!)

    I think we have the first meme of the 2012 season. Or is it the second with the bunting tournament?

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  17. Author
    Berselius

    Mish wrote:

    Kudos to the GoT shoutout. I watched basically all of Season 1 yesterday. Season 2 is Coming.

    My wife and I watched the first half yesterday, then got sucked into a new book and arguing about Samardzija on twitter, respectively (dying laughing)

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  18. Doug etetectdsaaga

    @ mb21:

    What about the 77 innings I pointed out and showed he was quite good during? That’s roughly 90% of his entire body of work from last year.

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  19. Author
    Berselius

    @ Doug etetectdsaaga:

    That FIP number is buoyed by his unsustainably low HR/FB percentage. His xFIP would be much higher. Not to mention that you add a run or so to a player’s ERA/FIP when converting to a starter. Even if you ignore the HR/FB stuff that would be a FIP in the high 4’s as a starter.

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  20. mb21

    I just calculated Samardzija’s fastball velocity in his 5 games started. The average is 93.5. 4 of the 5 starts were between 91 and 93 and the other was over 96. I’m thinking the 96 one is out of whack. Still, the 93.5 average is in line with the typical 3 mph loss that pitchers have when starting compared to relieving. Unless F7 has found the world’s best steroids talk about him as a 95 mph pitcher is a bit absurd. He averages a bit more than that in his career, but most of that has been as a reliever. I’m guessing if he’s going to pitch a full season as a starter he’ll average closer to 92 than 93. That’s still good velocity, but it’s not like the guy is going to be throwing as hard as a starter as he was as a reliever.

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  21. mb21

    @ Berselius:
    Low HR/FB rate, low BABIP and ridiculously high LOB%. HIs xFIP, IIRC, was about 4.25. Adjust the BABIP to his career level and LOB% to average and his ERA increases by a lot. He was lucky last year. Better to be lucky than not, but that kind of stuff isn’t going to continue even if he’s in the bullpen.

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  22. mb21

    @ Doug etetectdsaaga:
    We have about 630 professional innings from Samardzija. If someone wanted to break that into equal halves we could probably see something, but not over 77 innings. Not over 100 innings. Think about the number of pitcher who have had really good seasons as a starting pitcher only to suck the following years.

    His strikeout rate improved last year. That’s good and he faced enough batters that we can safely assume he’s likely to continue to strikeout more hitters than he did previously, but also not as much as he did last year. That’s true even if he stays in relief. Moving to the rotation will only hurt it more. You need 303 batters faced to get an r squared of .5 when it comes to unintentional walks. F7 faced just over 300 last year so his entire season we could say is more representative of his walk rate going forward than whatever it was in the past (I think it was about the same fwiw).

    That’s as much as we can say about Samardzija’s stats from last year.

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  23. Suburban kid

    Berselius wrote:

    I’ll look at the split projections later this afternoon, but I’m betting Mather vs RHP > Stewart vs LHP

    Yeah, and maybe Campana should start in center against RHP instead of Byrd.

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  24. Suburban kid

    To be clear, I have no problem with light hitting defensive utilitymen. Just don’t think they should be in a platoon.

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  25. Mish

    @ Berselius:
    Haha yes I was almost sucked into that F7 convo as well (well I was a part of it for a while), but then our Assassin’s Creed discussion derailed that and got me on my way to GameStop.

    I bought Batman: Arkham City, of course. (dying laughing)

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  26. Mucker

    Why would anyone phone Mike Napoli? I can understand if he’s single and it’s all hot chicks phoning him, that would be pretty cool. But if grown men are calling Mike Napoli, or any other famous dude, then there are some serious issues there. What would you say to him if he actually answered?

    “Hello?”
    “Yeah is Mike there?”
    “This is him….”
    “……..uh……Hi”?
    “Who’s this?”
    “It’s Bernard Malamud…..I’m a huge fan”
    (click)

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  27. Author
    Berselius

    Suburban kid wrote:

    To be clear, I have no problem with light hitting defensive utilitymen. Just don’t think they should be in a platoon.

    I like Mather better than Campana for the handedness reason, but would much rather have a Daryle Ward type (except right handed) over both of these guys. The bench blows.

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  28. Mish

    @ Mucker:
    Yes, I loved Arkham Asylum. I beat Uncharted 3 last week and as is my protocol, I trade in a game and get a new one. I was torn between that and AC: Brotherhood (and to a lesser extent, Skyrim), but I went with what the heart wanted.

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  29. Rice Cube

    @ Berselius:
    Have you tracked their innings? I think most of the time this spring starters are out by the fifth or sixth inning when they’ve gotten their second or third plate appearance out of the way. In split squads they’re out by the 7th. That’s only when I actually paid attention though.

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  30. josh

    Side note: How long till the Cubs sign Joel Pinero? They really need some pitching help. Did you hear they’re thinking of starting Jeff Samardzija? Okay, back to the video game discussion.

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  31. Author
    Berselius

    @ Rice Cube:

    I don’t know about PAs, I’m just noticing the number of starts. An away game like today’s would normally have one or two guys from the opening day lineup, two or three utility guys, and then the rest filled in with the Sappelts and Dave Keltons of the system.

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  32. bubblesdachimp

    @ Rice Cube:

    THis is a very bold move for Denver. If they trade Tebow and Peyton isnt peyton well then they will have pissed off the fanbase..

    Bold move. Elway must have really hated him

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  33. Rice Cube

    @ mb21:
    16 games done, there are about 2.5 weeks left including Wednesday’s off-day. I’m not sure what the deal is but they have a game on the Tuesday before Opening Day against Milwaukee, which seems like they’re cutting it a bit close.

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  34. Author
    Berselius

    I guess I just know the roster better than I used to. I have too many memories of “who the fuck is this guy” when looking at ST road game starting lineups in the past.

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  35. Rice Cube

    @ mb21:
    They’re probably making cuts on the off day or shortly after, right? If that’s the case then the starters would probably play just about as much, especially if the coaching staff wants to strategize like they would in the regular season.

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  36. mb21

    It looks like the Cubs have played more games than any team, which is odd because I know some teams had already played 2 games before the Cubs first game.

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  37. Rice Cube

    @ mb21:
    There have been a bunch of split squads so that does limit the number of substitutions they can make until late in the game. I don’t know how many off days other clubs have, but the Cubs seem to only have the one coming up on Wednesday and that’s it until just before Opening Day.

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  38. Rice Cube

    MLBTR says Phillies might want a better backup catcher. If the BN article re: Utley and needing 2B options holds water then one might speculate the Cubs could send a catcher and one of the expendable 2B guys over to Philly for whatever they have to offer.

    I wonder what they DO have to offer though. Just idle speculation.

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  39. bubblesdachimp

    @ josh:

    Unless peyton just isnt peyton. Barnwell wrote something the other day that if his arm is 80% of peyton he is then an average QB…

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  40. Mucker

    Mish wrote:

    @ Mucker:
    Yes, I loved Arkham Asylum. I beat Uncharted 3 last week and as is my protocol, I trade in a game and get a new one. I was torn between that and AC: Brotherhood (and to a lesser extent, Skyrim), but I went with what the heart wanted.

    I’ve played Uncharted 1 & 2 and loved them. Is 3 the best of them? I usually like to wait until games go to about $20 on newegg.com before I purchase but I’ll make exceptions for some games. I also love the AC series.

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  41. Author
    Berselius

    Speaking of QBs, I still can’t believe that Matt Flynn was such a hot commodity on the market. Performing well in two starts in arguably the best passing offense in football should be taken with an enormous grain of salt.

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  42. Mucker

    bubblesdachimp wrote:

    @ josh:
    Unless peyton just isnt peyton. Barnwell wrote something the other day that if his arm is 80% of peyton he is then an average QB…

    Well, I think Peyton was more accurate than he was a strong armed QB. And 80% of Peyton is 300% better than Tebow at 100%.

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  43. Mucker

    Berselius wrote:

    It’s almost as baffling as Matt Cassel, starting QB

    Agreed. Not to say Flynn won’t be good. But it’s like the Cardinals giving up a 2nd, Rodgers-Cromartie and $66 million for 4 starts from Kolb. The scouting in the NFL seems to be really shitty at times.

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  44. Author
    Berselius

    @ Mucker:

    I got Uncharted from my brother in law for Christmas but haven’t gotten around to it yet. It’s next on my list after my current re-play of AC2 (to pick up the trophy I missed and play the DLC).

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  45. Mucker

    Berselius wrote:

    @ Mucker:
    I got Uncharted from my brother in law for Christmas but haven’t gotten around to it yet. It’s next on my list after my current re-play of AC2 (to pick up the trophy I missed and play the DLC).

    I think the Uncharted games are awesome. So are the Ass Creed games.

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  46. Mucker

    Berselius wrote:

    @ Mucker:
    (dying laughing), or that ridiculous deal for Carson Palmer. Or anything the Redskins have done in the past decade-plus.

    Oh yeah, forgot about Palmer. The Skins and Raiders are completely worthless football orgs. But the Skins needed to trade for Griffin or Luck. They are two of the most complete QB prospects to come out in years. Worst case, they still suck but they sell a shit load of tickets and memorabilia. Best case, they are a perennial playoff contender. I’m thinking it’s somewhere in between.

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  47. Mish

    @ Mucker:
    I loved the first two Uncharteds as well. I don’t necessarily think UC3 blows away or revolutionizes the series, but its all the goodness you loved in the first two. It’s been almost two years since I beat UC2 so I might just be having a tough time comparing. I do not regret that purchase.

    I find that AC/Batman/UC have very similar gaming engines, that’s why I’m probably a big fan of all three series. Combination of platform jumping/climbing, stealth action, melee action, and puzzle solving.

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  48. Mucker

    Mish wrote:

    @ Mucker:
    I loved the first two Uncharteds as well. I don’t necessarily think UC3 blows away or revolutionizes the series, but its all the goodness you loved in the first two. It’s been almost two years since I beat UC2 so I might just be having a tough time comparing. I do not regret that purchase.
    I find that AC/Batman/UC have very similar gaming engines, that’s why I’m probably a big fan of all three series. Combination of platform jumping/climbing, stealth action, melee action, and puzzle solving.

    Yeah, I love those types of games. I was really into Tomb Raider when I was younger for that reason. And the God of War series as well. I really liked the Splinter Cell games on PC but that series shit the bed. I like shooters but they are really getting watered down. Have you played Infamous? That game is pretty cool.

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  49. Mish

    @ Mucker:
    No I have not, but have heard great things. I also really liked the first Splinter Cell games (I loved the Metal Gear games growing up so all sorts of tactical stealth games are my favorite) I played, but I only had it on XBox. I will probably have an opening after I beat AC: Brotherhood this year, so I might look to Infamous to fill that void.

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  50. Aisle424


    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

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  51. Mucker

    Mish wrote:

    @ Mucker:
    No I have not, but have heard great things. I also really liked the first Splinter Cell games (I loved the Metal Gear games growing up so all sorts of tactical stealth games are my favorite) I played, but I only had it on XBox. I will probably have an opening after I beat AC: Brotherhood this year, so I might look to Infamous to fill that void.

    Yeah give it a try I think you’ll enjoy based on what you seem to like in your games.

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  52. Mucker

    Aisle424 wrote:

    ❤Brittney&Bobby❤ @BrittAndBobby @johnelway I hope u fucking drown on that fucking lake house u have tebow is god and you wanted the devil in manning I hope u die elway die19 Mar 12 ReplyRetweetFavorite

    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

    That is quite disturbing. I don’t understand how people take things that people do or say, people that they don’t even know, and treat it like a direct insult or threat. It’s quite alarming to think people like that walk amongst us.

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  53. josh

    @ Mucker:
    I really liked the first Uncharted, but then I traded my PS3 off for a guitar. I haven’t played the newest Assassin’s Creed (the Brotherhood one). It seemed to be more oriented toward online pvp type gaming, which I’m not really into. If I wanted to get together with people and have a good time, I’d go make some friends.

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  54. josh

    @ Aisle424:
    He killed Brittney years ago. She’s been in the basement. He still talks to her, woos her, makes sweet love to her. He believes she loves him more now than she ever did.

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  55. josh

    ❤Brittney&Bobby❤ ‏ @BrittAndBobby Close
    hay my wife can eat all the cookies she wants she a goddess a beauful majestic women

    You see? It fits.

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  56. josh

    @ GW:
    Why does the article say “It was a wicked one-hopper that most third basemen would likely miss.” It was hit right to him? Not saying there are many that could play it perfectly, but his reaction time clearly was a factor there.

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  57. mb21

    The only thing that could make this better is if Elway released a statement today stating he’s an atheist who is favor of abortion. He should also add that God is a hoax and he supports the elimination of the 2nd amendment.

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  58. Rice Cube

    @ josh:
    How bad does a hop have to be to do something like that? I’m going to MLB.com to see if a video is available but I’m imagining that he had his glove in position and the ball skipped off a bit of sand or something and bounced up much higher than expected.

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  59. Rice Cube

    @ GW:
    Thanks, maybe you can see more in the ESPN link. Looks like the ball was lined into the dirt and then skipped high. Maybe someone who actually played third base would know better but I always thought you were supposed to keep your glove down at the corner just in case, and that’s what I saw Cabrera was doing. He had less than half a second between the bad hop (even though it was several feet in front of him) and impact so I’m not sure how he could have reacted to that.

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  60. josh

    @ Rice Cube:
    He was in front, ready. He then pounded his glove, during which the ball hopped up, and caught him in the face. I really don’t know if there was any other outcome. Pence hit it pretty damn hard. I’m not any expert or anything though. Maybe they’re right.

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  61. SkipVB

    @ GW:
    This to me is the most perplexing move in baseball this spring. Why put Cabrera at 3B instead of LF? When he’s at 3B Andy Dirkx is the LF. Wow! Andy Dirkx. We had Andy Dirkx a few years ago, except he was using the name Matt Murton. For nearly the same productivity and better defense, you could leave Inge/Don Kelly/Peralta at 3b (with Santiago at SS when Peralta is there).

    Compared to this, F7 as a starter is totally logical.

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  62. Rice Cube

    @ SkipVB:
    I guess the main disadvantage to Cabrera in LF is a lack of range. He’s pretty slow now. It’s not like he’s going to be all that good at 3B either so I don’t think that’s the best objection. With Cabrera at the corner, it looks like that infield is going to be super-leaky in three of four areas.

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  63. josh

    @ Mucker:
    Since I bought my first crappy acoustic after graduation from high school (1997). Bought my first electric the next summer and have played that ever since (sellout!). I played classical for a little while, but haven’t picked it up in about a year, so mostly electric. I’ve gone through guitars at a sickening pace, really. It’s disgusting. I had a really nice Parker Maxxfly, but I sold it when we had the baby. Since then, I’ve had my current for awhile though. It’s basically a super cheap Washburn body that someone sanded down to the primer in places to give it a swirly pattern, then filled in most of the pickup routing. The neck is one of those Korean made Kramer necks after Kramer sold out. It just has one shitty humbucker and a volume knob. I had to file down the strat-style bridge because all the screws would cut me when I’d palm mute. I run it through a Fender Frontman 25R combo. I have an EHX Micro Metal Muff, but it recently stopped working for some reason, so I run that baby straight. Total garage band/high school setup, but fun, you know?

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  64. Rice Cube

    SkipVB wrote:

    Compared to this, F7 as a starter is totally logical.

    I wonder if anyone’s done a cost-benefit analysis or a risk-to-reward post on F7 as starter. He’s getting paid $2.4MM, he’s got those two arbitration years left as well. As a reliever he’s meh except for last season (the others have already mentioned the abnormal LOB% and HR/FB etc) but if they have a chance to turn him into a starter and increase his value to the team…is that worth sitting through 30 innings or so on a projected losing team while taking those 30 innings away from Wells, Travis Wood or Volstad? Given those six years worth of data (i.e. F7 sucks) they don’t actually need that much time to say “yup, he’s performing about as expected” so you’re not actually losing much with this mini-experiment.

    I don’t think the Superfriends and Sveum are ignoring data; I think they’re trying to create an asset. It might not work, but the risk seems minimal to me and the reward might be pretty good. I’m not proficient enough to do all the mathy things but I can’t imagine they’re doing this for shits and giggles.

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  65. Aisle424

    josh wrote:

    Since I bought my first crappy acoustic after graduation from high school (1997). Bought my first electric the next summer and have played that ever since (sellout!). I played classical for a little while, but haven’t picked it up in about a year, so mostly electric. I’ve gone through guitars at a sickening pace, really. It’s disgusting. I had a really nice Parker Maxxfly, but I sold it when we had the baby. Since then, I’ve had my current for awhile though. It’s basically a super cheap Washburn body that someone sanded down to the primer in places to give it a swirly pattern, then filled in most of the pickup routing. The neck is one of those Korean made Kramer necks after Kramer sold out. It just has one shitty humbucker and a volume knob. I had to file down the strat-style bridge because all the screws would cut me when I’d palm mute. I run it through a Fender Frontman 25R combo. I have an EHX Micro Metal Muff, but it recently stopped working for some reason, so I run that baby straight. Total garage band/high school setup, but fun, you know?

    I didn’t understand a word of this.

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  66. josh

    @ Rice Cube:
    I was thinking something similar. He’s had such limited success, this may be a do or die thing for him. He might be more inclined to work harder in a job that’s more challenging, or something. I can see why people are skeptical of this move, though. He’s not quite in a do-or-die phase of his career, with 2 arb years left, why not, at best, let him try starting in the minors, to see if he’s really turned this proverbial corner?

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  67. SkipVB

    @ Rice Cube:
    Well, right. Given the choice of poor range in LF or having substandard defense at 3b, I’d take poor range in LF. Austin Jackson could help him some by cheating over from CF. Having way below defense at 3B, SS, 1B and potentially at 2B with Inge/Raburn there will only be good for the White Sox. The bad D at SS and 1B are set, but bad D at 3B is a choice. We could play Soriano at 3B if we wanted. After all, he has infield experience too. But we don’t. Jose Canseco played LF, Cabrera has to be better out there than Canseco…

    @ Rice Cube:
    Totally agree, the risk is worth it, because 30 innings is low risk on this team. If we can start James Russell more than 3 times last year, we can certainly start Smardz a few times.

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  68. Rice Cube

    @ josh:
    I think him being out of options means they can’t send him down without exposing him to waivers, and some idiot GM (say, Brian Sabean) might claim him. This may not be agreeable to the Superfriends on the off-chance that F7 might not suck.

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  69. Mucker

    josh wrote:

    @ Mucker:
    Since I bought my first crappy acoustic after graduation from high school (1997). Bought my first electric the next summer and have played that ever since (sellout!). I played classical for a little while, but haven’t picked it up in about a year, so mostly electric. I’ve gone through guitars at a sickening pace, really. It’s disgusting. I had a really nice Parker Maxxfly, but I sold it when we had the baby. Since then, I’ve had my current for awhile though. It’s basically a super cheap Washburn body that someone sanded down to the primer in places to give it a swirly pattern, then filled in most of the pickup routing. The neck is one of those Korean made Kramer necks after Kramer sold out. It just has one shitty humbucker and a volume knob. I had to file down the strat-style bridge because all the screws would cut me when I’d palm mute. I run it through a Fender Frontman 25R combo. I have an EHX Micro Metal Muff, but it recently stopped working for some reason, so I run that baby straight. Total garage band/high school setup, but fun, you know?

    Oh I hear ya. I’ve owned and operated about 15 guitars since I first started playing (1997 as well). I currently own 5 guitars; 2 Jackson DKM2s, an ESP Flying V with EMGs, an ESP Les Paul with EMGs and floyd rose(love this guitar) and my baby, a Custom Gibson Les Paul Custom(best tone ever). I have a Marshall ATV150 half stack, a Peavy Classic 50 (4×10 combo) and I just bought the EVH 5150iii. Fucking Brutal. I have wahs, overdrives, phasers, delays, chorus, you name it. I’ve played in bands before but now I mostly just fiddle around with them and try to learn as much as I can. Oh, and I also have a shitty Ibanez acoustic that I use to play panty dropping songs for the ladies.

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  70. Rice Cube

    @ josh:
    I figure if he can’t stick as a starter and given his poor pro numbers so far they’re likely to non-tender him if they can’t dump him in a trade. At least that’s what I would do. Heck, I might even DFA him at that point. I guess for this team $2.4MM is a drop in the bucket so it probably won’t faze them too much to just give it a try and then throw him away if it comes to that.

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  71. Mucker

    josh wrote:

    @ Mucker:
    Your musical equipment (and, probably, talent) > my musical equipment (and, probably, talent).

    I don’t know about that. Some would say I’m over compensating. But I just really love guitars. I’ve been playing for 15 years and have recently hit a plateau where I feel like I’m not getting any better. I know my modes and my blues scales and I’m pretty good at improvising. My chord vocabulary needs some work since I mostly just play power chords and the basics. I do some tapping like Eruption and shit but not very good and I’m absoutely shit at sweep picking and string skipping. I’m more of a Michael Schenker type if you know who he is.

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  72. josh

    @ Mish:
    The neck on mine was built sometime in the late 80s or early 90s. It’s actually not a terrible neck, despite being one of the el cheapo cash-ins on Eddie Van Halen’s popularity. The body could really be anything. THe guy I got it from thought Washburn, but I’m pretty sure it’s made from that really cheap pressed sawdust crap, like the furniture you buy at Walmart. If you drill into it, it just disintegrates.

    @ Mucker:
    I haven’t live in a place since 1997 where I could actually use a half-stack. I had a Fender Blues Jr. (I’m not really a Fender fanboy, it’s just coincidence) tube amp, but I could never crank it up because the neighbors would complain, so I’ve just gone with solid states since then. I kind of like the current setup. It probably wouldn’t work with a band, but it’s good for practicing, and the complete lack of both bells and whistles means I spend more time playing than fiddling with settings.

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  73. josh

    @ Mucker:
    He played with the Scorpions for a while, right? I don’t know his solo stuff very well.

    Yeah, that sounds similar to my story. I love guitars, but I’ve never really had the money to buy a really nice one, so I mostly just cobble together parts from other guitars and that kind of thing, or buy knockoffs. I’ve probably plateaued, but I keep trying anyway, because I’m a stubborn bastard. I play some lead, mostly blues/SRV type stuff, but I try to push myself to play a new rhythm every day. I find just rocking out on a new riff to be more fun than trying to master the solo to Sanitarium or something like that.

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  74. Mucker

    @ josh:
    Yeah Schenker was with Scorpions for a little. He’s a monster. He played with UFO and their live album “Strangers in the Night” changed my life forever.

    Yeah dude we have the same tastes. I’m a huge SRV fan and love pre-black album Metallica. I’m into hard rock, classic rock, late 70s to early 90s metal, that kind of stuff. But I love Gary Moore and SRV, those power blues players. As a player, I’ve found that the more I listend to different genres, the more I got out of the guitar. I try to listen to a little bit of everything and I can find something musically appealing about a lot of different styles of music. Even 90s and early 2000s hip hop I’m a huge fan of. Music today is just complete shit.

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  75. Mish

    Yeah you’re light years beyond me, Josh. My crowning jewel is the ability to play the original Super Mario Bros. theme, which is really, really hard. (dying laughing)

    I own an acoustic electric Fender that’s pretty beat up now. I mostly just play songs by bands I know, and mostly just rhythm. I don’t play for anyone and never for a band. It’s simply “me time”, just like masturbation. (dying laughing)

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  76. Mucker

    Mish wrote:

    Yeah you’re light years beyond me, Josh. My crowning jewel is the ability to play the original Super Mario Bros. theme, which is really, really hard. (dying laughing)
    I own an acoustic electric Fender that’s pretty beat up now. I mostly just play songs by bands I know, and mostly just rhythm. I don’t play for anyone and never for a band. It’s simply “me time”, just like masturbation. (dying laughing)

    Mish, you can play the Super Mario Bros. theme? That’s impressive. Youtube has videos of this dude playing that theme on a huge Sitar. It’s pretty fucking epic.

    I actually learned to play the Home Improvement theme song which used to give my buddies a good laugh. Because I would even do Tim’s little grunt at the end.

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  77. josh

    @ Mucker:
    I listen to some new music, kind of a weird variety. I like the weirder metal stuff — The Sword, Mastodon, Red Fang, Dragonforce (though, you’ve heard one of their songs, you’ve heard them all). I went through a super heavy nu-metal phase a couple years ago. It was all because I was working next to someone who mumbled and hummed all day, so I found only really crazy screaming metal (Mudvayne, Slipknot, Lamb of God) would drown her out, but that stuff is rarely much fun to play, I find. You can’t beat classic rock and classic metal for playing enjoyment.

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  78. josh

    @ Mish:
    Yeah, me too. I played about three times in front of an audience in college. It was just me singing and playing. Alone. On stage. I found that if I got drunk enough, I could convince myself I wasn’t terrible, but it was pretty terrible. It felt like masturbating in front of a bunch of people I knew, in terms of embarrassment level.

    @ Mucker:
    Are you talking about that one guy who is playing that crazy 12 string bass thing, and slaps out SMB?

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  79. Mucker

    @ josh:
    I have some Sword stuff and of course Dragonforce. But yeah they are very redundant. I could never get into Lamb or Slipknot or Shadows Fall or that type metal. I’m big into listening to vocals too and that shit is whack. But yea, Priest, Ozzie, Van Halen….I’ll take that stuff anyday.

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  80. josh

    @ Mucker:
    I like vocals too, and you get it if you listen to it enough. It’s sort of an acquired taste. It probably helped that this was around the same time I quit smoking, so I had a lot of pent up rage and anxiety.

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  81. josh

    @ Mucker:
    I found that through the guy who made the instrument, but I can’t remember anymore who it is. That guy makes these crazy 11-12 string basses. You can only play them the way he does, with hammer-ons. It’s bananas, but cool sounding if you can learn to do it.

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  82. SkipVB

    So you all know I’m pretty new here and I thought that the title of this blog referred to the irritating posts in Wrigley field, as so well illustrated by the current banner.

    But after the last 20 comments or so, I understand now why this is place is called “Obstructed View.” (and I like it–the tendency toward random obstruction, not specifically Priest, Scorpions, Aldo Nova, GreatWhiteSnakeLion, etc.)
    (dying laughing)

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  83. Mucker

    @ josh:
    Pantera was about the most I could take in regards to vocals being like that and Anselmo wasn’t even like that. He had moments when he was like that. But I loved Dime so much I could tolerate it and eventually enjoy Anselmo.

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  84. Mucker

    josh wrote:

    @ Mucker:
    The more I think about it, the more I think quitting smoking and the desire that creates to scream at the top of your lungs played a major role.

    (dying laughing)
    I’m glad I never even started smoking then.

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  85. Mish

    @ Mucker:
    (dying laughing) yeah there are some really impressive Mario covers out there. It is not an easy song. It’s hella fun though; the 5th fret harmonic on the high E kinda sounds like coins.

    I started playing when I was in my Metallica/Megadeth/Pantera mode, among other things. Somewhere after 12th grade, I became a vagine and started listening to DMB, Phish, Coldplay (and later Arcade Fire, Modest Mouse, etc). So what I know is generally in that direction. And I’ve always tried (and failed) to play Zeppelin, Floyd, and Radiohead.

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  86. jtsunami

    Sorry to be off-topic, but how are we all so sure that F7 is the same pitcher as years prior. Why are we so confident that players don’t change and management keeps letting them suck instead of trying to help them improve. I don’t think F7’s comment about working harder this offseason than any other year should be taken with a grain of salt.

    We were all so sure that Garza was going to be an above average starter in the NL when he came over. He starts throwing his fastball a little bit less and all of the sudden he’s a top 20 pitcher in the MLB.

    I just think talking in absolutes in regards to him is a bit misguided. And yes, I do understand defending F7 and calling him F7 at the same time is a bit of an oxymoron.

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  87. SkipVB

    @ Mucker:
    Eh, no worries. Actually your discussion reminded me of many times in high school when a couple of my friends would have almost the exact same discussion, while we were either driving around in, or laying underneath trying to fix, one of my friend’s 70-something Nova. The only thing that worked in that car was the stereo, and it had a sweet tape deck, which was regularly stuffed with all the groups you mentioned (but I was more of a Billy Joel kind of guy, and played sax and not guitar, so mostly I did the fixing, or snoring, I guess).

    Besides, if you hadn’t hijacked the thread, we’d all be treated to the best quotes of Game of Thrones, Season 1.
    (dying laughing)

    Faulkner would love this place.

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  88. Mucker

    Page is a very hard guitarist to emulate. He used some really funky tunings on some things and his chord knowledge was very impressive. As good as Gilmore is, I never thought he was difficult to copy other than his feel and his melodic structuring, but I guess that’s what defines his playing so maybe he was hard to copy.

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  89. josh

    @ Mish:
    I used to be able to play a passable version of Stairway. Haven’t played it in a while, though. “Wish You Were Here” is an easy Floyd song to play, and sounds pretty bad ass, if you like moody guitar stuff.

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  90. Suburban kid

    Mucker wrote:

    Josh, you play guitar? How long have you been playing? What kind of gear do you have?

    I have an ’82Holocauster and a 2.5 watt amp.

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  91. Mish

    Haha okay maybe I sold myself short – I can play Wish You Were Here, Mother, Pigs on the Wing, etc. I just mean in the most general sense, I still suck at guitar. (dying laughing)

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  92. Mish

    @ Mucker:
    Agreed with this. I can play most of the acousticy Zeppelin songs (Tangerine, Over the Hills, etc) and then a lot of the main riffs. I have a general knowledge of all the different parts making up Stairway, I just can’t put them together in any cogent manner. That’s why I learned Tenacious D’s tribute. (dying laughing)

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  93. josh

    @ Mucker:
    I love the end crescendo in “Stairway” where he builds those diads bendy things he’s doing up higher and higher. So awesome. I really like the guitar parts on “Sugar Magnolia,” too. I love the distorted guitar that’s just kind of doing its own thing that you can barely hear under the main theme. Yeah, with Floyd, I just find it annoying to play arpeggios. I don’t like stuff where I have to play perfectly because it shows how shitty I am.

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  94. Author
    Berselius

    jtsunami wrote:

    Sorry to be off-topic, but how are we all so sure that F7 is the same pitcher as years prior. Why are we so confident that players don’t change and management keeps letting them suck instead of trying to help them improve. I don’t think F7′s comment about working harder this offseason than any other year should be taken with a grain of salt.

    We were all so sure that Garza was going to be an above average starter in the NL when he came over. He starts throwing his fastball a little bit less and all of the sudden he’s a top 20 pitcher in the MLB.

    We can only evaluate on what we know, which is primarily the numbers. The same goes for Garza last year. If scouts/pfx guys say he’s pitching differently then I’m fine saying that the projections won’t be as good. But I haven’t heard anything beyond “he’s throwing the ball well”, which doesn’t tell me anything at all. It’s just like saying so-and-so is in the best shape of his life, or put on x pounds of muscle in the offseason. All we know is that he’s been terrible in the past, and there’s reason to be skeptical about his run of good numbers last year.

    If the scouts are truly saying to Thoyer that there’s good reason to ignore his past numbers and it just hasn’t trickled through to fans like us, fine. But based on what we know it looks like it will be a disaster.

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  95. WaLi

    @ SkipVB:
    Shagga: How would you like to die, Tyrion, son of Tywin?
    Tyrion: In my own bed, at the age of 80, with a belly full of wine and a girls mouth around my cock.

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  96. josh

    @ Suburban kid:
    Just use power chords, then you can play them in standard tuning and look like a bad ass. And you, as an added bonus, with slight adjustments to strum pattern, you can play every punk song ever written.

    My backup plan for when I grow up, since it’s clear I’m not going to be a professional baseball player, is rock star, so that’s why I feel it’s worth talking about.

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  97. SkipVB

    @ josh:
    Yeah, ACT was actually serious!

    Pretty sure the Mets will be trading for Jason Vargas now. We know they have good new minds in the front office.

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  98. josh

    @ ACT:
    He’s not as fast anymore, so maybe they’re just trying to take some of the pressure off him to steal and stuff. Why 3rd and not 7th, I don’t know.

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  99. Author
    Berselius

    ACT wrote:

    banana RT @davidrelliott @Kevin_Goldstein Percentage chance of Samardzija to the rotation actually working well for Cubs?— Kevin Goldstein (@Kevin_Goldstein) March 19, 2012

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  100. josh

    @ jtsunami:
    I don’t know if Garza is a great comparison anyway. Didn’t he pitch a perfect game or a no-hitter the year before being traded to the Cubs? He had shown talent, but maybe needed a couple adjustments. Until now, Samardzija hasn’t shown that kind of talent. I doubt F7 gets too many starts if he makes the rotation, but it would be the most exciting thing to happen this season, so for that reason I’m hoping for the improbable.

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  101. Rice Cube

    Did Byrd just misplay a ball? Haven’t switched on my MLB.com yet…just don’t see how a line drive headed right for his position turns into a triple unless he dove and totally missed.

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  102. AB

    Mucker wrote:

    josh wrote:
    @ Mucker:
    2 Jackson DKM2s

    Randy Rhoads died 30 years ago today.

    I have a Jackson V with a built-in neck, whatever model Marty Friedman played. Its still at my parents house.

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  103. Aisle424

    Travis Wood has options left, right? A guy on Twitter is insisting he doesn’t and the only article I can find that specifically mentions options is one by Sullivan, so I’d understandably like a 2nd source.

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  104. josh

    @ josh:
    Although, come to think of it, “over his head” is no indication of did or didn’t misplay it. I’m going to give Marlon the benefit of the doubt unless anyone knows otherwise.

    AB wrote:

    I have a Jackson V with a built-in neck, whatever model Marty Friedman played. Its still at my parents house.

    Marty had a custom line through Jackson. Single humbucker with just a volume? A friend of mine had one in college.

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  105. SkipVB

    Dear AskOV,

    What is the greatest number of comments at OV for one thread? What is the ratio of comments per BB+Error+TOOTBLAN issued by the Cubs that day? (Surely that is a stat that is kept here…)

    Thanks
    heh heh.

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  106. mb21

    Rice Cube wrote:

    I wonder if anyone’s done a cost-benefit analysis or a risk-to-reward post on F7 as starter.

    The reward is this: there’s a slim chance he could stick at which point you’re probably talking 4-8 WAR over the next 3 years.

    The risk is this:

    Let’s try the risk/reward thingy for the Cubs and another player. Trade Soto and move LaHair to catcher.

    Reward: You get valuable prospects for Soto and if LaHair can hit even close to as well as he did last year you have an exceptionally valuable catcher. Maybe he even figures out how to catch.

    Risk:

    If we were going to talk about a competitive team like the Yankees. Here’s what we get:

    Reward: same as it is for the Cubs

    Risk: Lose a few more games than expected and miss the playoffs

    I don’t think a risk/reward analysis is particularly useful here. On a non-contending team we could argue that the benefit outweighs the risk for most position changes (Soriano to SS would be an exception since he’d be injured after 3 balls in play).

    The Superfriends aren’t ignoring the numbers. They gave F7 a thumbs up when they took over after looking at his ERA last year and then Sveum ran with it and gave him a job based on 10 innings of work. IMO, this is an example when you want a GM like Billy Beane. This wouldn’t happen if he was the GM. The manager does what Beane tells him to do and I can’t imagine the words Jeff Samardzija to the rotation ever coming out of his mouth.

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  107. josh

    @ mb21:
    Could the problem be that they couldn’t trade him, and there was no particular urgency to dump him, so they do this and play it out, and then dump him if/when he proves himself to be a worthless? It’s sort of convoluted, but the 5 spot isn’t particularly impressive no matter what.

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  108. AB

    @ josh:
    @ josh:
    josh wrote:

    @ josh:
    Although, come to think of it, “over his head” is no indication of did or didn’t misplay it. I’m going to give Marlon the benefit of the doubt unless anyone knows otherwise.
    AB wrote:
    I have a Jackson V with a built-in neck, whatever model Marty Friedman played. Its still at my parents house.
    Marty had a custom line through Jackson. Single humbucker with just a volume? A friend of mine had one in college.

    yea thats it

    around high school I was playing in a band doing our best Maiden/Megadeth knock-off impression and I bought that with my high school graduation money.

    Nowadays I just try to fake my way through like Al Dimeola and Steve Hackett (a way underrated guitar player IMO).

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  109. AB

    @ josh:
    @ josh:
    josh wrote:

    @ josh:
    Although, come to think of it, “over his head” is no indication of did or didn’t misplay it. I’m going to give Marlon the benefit of the doubt unless anyone knows otherwise.
    AB wrote:
    I have a Jackson V with a built-in neck, whatever model Marty Friedman played. Its still at my parents house.
    Marty had a custom line through Jackson. Single humbucker with just a volume? A friend of mine had one in college.

    yea thats it

    around high school I was playing in a band doing our best Maiden/Megadeth knock-off impression and I bought that with my high school graduation money.

    Nowadays I just try to fake my way through Al Dimeola and Steve Hackett (a way underrated guitar player IMO).

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