Time: 1:20 PM CT
TV: CSN
Gameday
LINEUPS
Diamondbacks
Michael Bourn, CF
Phil Gosselin, 2B
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
Jake Lamb, 3B
Chris Herrmann, C
Chris Owings, SS
Yasmany Tomas, LF
Brandon Drury, RF
Patrick Corbin, P
Cubs
Dexter Fowler, CF
Ben Zobrist, 2B
Kris Bryant, 1B
Jorge Soler, LF
Javier Baez, 3B
Addison Russell, SS
Matt Szczur, RF
Miguel Montero, C
Jake Arrieta, P
Click on the images below to visit Baseball Savant page and view larger image.
Arrieta has allowed 1 home run against the Diamondbacks batters. It's not surprising that it was hit by Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy is 3-10 against Arrieta in their careers with 5 strikeouts and 2 walks. Jake Lamb is 3-6. No one else has done much of anything against Arrieta.
Dexter Fowler has hit Corbin pretty well. He's 5-14 with a double, triple and 2 strikeouts. The Cubs only have 5 other hits against Corbin and they came from Travis Wood, Clayton Richard, John Lackey and Anthony Rizzo (2). Rizzo is not in the lineup. That doesn't mean much since the only other Cubs to face him were Heyward (0-4) and Javier Baez (0-1).
Will the Cubs win? Yes, but it could go either way.
538 Forecast: 73% chance of winning
Comments
I think it’s very unlikely they’d trade Happ for two reasons. First, they don’t have any picks this year until the 3rd round so Happ is the last high draft pick they have had. Second, his walk rate so far in the minors is ridiculous in the opposite way that Javier Baez’s is ridiculous. Happ fits so perfectly into the offensive style that this organization is trying to build.
Considering where the Cubs are right now, I don’t see this team giving up much of anything at the deadline. I could see one of Baez/Soler being made available and if McKinney starts hitting really well, I could see he or maybe even Almora dealt, but I think we’re looking at a quiet trade deadline. I wouldn’t even be surprised if the Cubs did nothing.
dmick89Quote Reply
Happ is still a couple years away so by the time he’s ready, Zobrist won’t be an issue.
dmick89Quote Reply
Funny thing—I have had Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn linked together in my mind from when they first came into the league and the fact that I only really knew them by name and position. I saw Bourn’s name and thought, didn’t he get injured? This despite him being in the starting lineup on Friday and pinch-hitting yesterday.
So I am ageist and positionist, but not racist. Baseball players, they all look the same. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
I think Happ could be productive next year in the Majors, but not really for the Cubs. Leaving ML-ready talent in the minors is a misallocation of resources, though it does serve as a useful insurance policy should Zobrist go down. He may also bust, so that insurance policy may not be able to be paid when the need arises. His near readiness and and high-floor make him arguably the best trade asset they have in the minors.
ceruleanQuote Reply
*if, not when. Dumbass.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Based on how they’ve promoted talent in the minors so far, I think next year is a stretch. I’d probably promote him to AA right now, but the Cubs have been more conservative about it and it’s difficult to argue with the results. He’ll probably stick in A+ until the end of the year and be promoted to AA to get around 50-75 PA. He’ll probably then go back to AA to start next season and look for a midseason promotion to AAA. I think the earliest you see Happ in MLB is September of next season. Schwarber is really the only player they promoted aggressively and that was partly due to need at the MLB level. Had Montero not gone down, I doubt we’d have seen Schwarber until September last year (if that).
dmick89Quote Reply
Casey Bloomquist has had exceptional control in 62.1 IP in A ball (his entire pro career): a .834 WHIP with less than a walk per nine and over eight strikeouts per nine.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
Bryant was promoted aggressively but that was because Bryant.
SKQuote Reply
dmick89,
To be clear, that’s my point. The Cubs will leave him in the minors until late 2017 at the earliest (with him destroying the minors), but another team might even start him next year because of need. That’s way before 2020 and way before his 2018 ETA. There is value there that the Cubs risk losing by not trading him that potentially outweigh the value of keeping him. That’s all I mean.
ceruleanQuote Reply
*outweighs
ceruleanQuote Reply
Good point. I forgot about Bryant, but yeah, it was clear he belonged at the MLB level. Happ has some impressive numbers, but they’re not that great and he’s still at A+ level. We’ll see how quickly they have it in mind to get Happ to the big leagues. If he’s not promoted to AA in the next few weeks, I just don’t see him getting there until August.
dmick89Quote Reply
cerulean,
I know what you mean, and if the Cubs had an obvious hole, I’d probably agree. This team, though. Where’s the hole? It’s remarkable how solid this team is at every spot with the possible exception being a dominant lefty reliever. Question is, how much would give up to acquire that? Personally, I wouldn’t give up much.
dmick89Quote Reply
Bourn is being pesky.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Bourn making Arrieta work.
dmick89Quote Reply
Crazy movement from Jake so far.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
More velo than usual, too.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
hey guys, i’m sure everyone already knows this, but it’s robinson chirinos’s birthday today.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I’m not enjoying these deep counts.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Nope. I miss Arrieta’s control from last season.
dmick89Quote Reply
Not happy about that walk.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I enjoyed that strikeout, though.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
A lot of pitches in the 1st.
dmick89Quote Reply
Damn. Arrieta’s stuff is nasty today, but he’s going to have trouble controlling it.
dmick89Quote Reply
Arrieta on pace for a 234-pitch complete game shutout with 9 BB and 27 K.
ceruleanQuote Reply
(dying laughing) complaining about Arrieta looking too good.
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing)
SKQuote Reply
Ouch. I hope Jorge is ok.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That looked bad. Hope Soler is alright.
dmick89Quote Reply
Only 14 pitches for Corbin. Seemed like more.
dmick89Quote Reply
Heyward might have caught that.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Heyward might have prevented that ruin from scoring.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
*run
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Going to be a very short outing for Arrieta.
dmick89Quote Reply
38 pitches with nobody out in the 2nd.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d like to start this game over. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Preferably with Heyward in right.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
What a weird game. Six strikeouts. 3 balls in play, all hits.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Bryant at 3rd and Rizzo at 1st.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hopefully Arrieta has settled down a bit.
dmick89Quote Reply
Jake gets an out that isn’t a strikeout!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hey, a defensive out!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Update on Arrieta’s pace: 198 pitches, 6 ER, 9 hits, 3 walks, 24 strikeouts.
ceruleanQuote Reply
This game has been great for Arrieta’s FIP (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
This is crazy.
dmick89Quote Reply
11 strikeouts through four.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Damn.
ceruleanQuote Reply
What’s crazier—the 11 strikeouts or that Arizona managed 4 hits and 2 runs—simultaneously hittable and unhittable.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
The Cubs looking like shit against Corbin. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Russell got screwed.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
*Obligatory endorsement of robot umps*
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
Except for Arrieta (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Arrieta got screwed.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jake must have pissed off the BABIP gods.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
This is starting to drive me crazy.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jesus. I’d get Arrieta out of there. Nothing good is going to come from this game. Just take out all the starters.
dmick89Quote Reply
Throw strikes, please.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Ugh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
What a weird fucking game.
dmick89Quote Reply
This game is the ultimate FIP to ERA normalizer. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Typical getaway day shit.
SKQuote Reply
cerulean,
Sometimes the baseball gods have to make adjustments.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jake is on deck? Ugh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Pinch-hitter, please.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
This game: 5.40 ERA, -1.08 FIP. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Damn it, Joe.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Arrieta batting? That’s just stupid. Terrible.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
You’re damn right.
Watch Arrieta tie the game.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Ugh.
ceruleanQuote Reply
How the hell can a statically inclined manager bat Arrieta there? Makes no sense.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
It wasn’t even a good bunt.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The D-Backs keep striking out and the Cubs keep bouncing out.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jake isn’t even coming back to pitch.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It’s opposite day, so anything goes.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Baffling.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Joe is a great manager, but he's among the worst in baseball when it comes to using pinch hitters in my opinion. This front office should do a little bitch slapping around to Joe after that one. There probably isn't a single manager in baseball that lets Arrieta bat in that spot.
dmick89Quote Reply
^other than Joe
dmick89Quote Reply
Because he’s also an even bigger player’s manager than Dusty.
SKQuote Reply
dmick89,
*si for* should be *single*, right? Damn autocorrect.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Stop hitting grounders.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
cerulean,
Right.
dmick89Quote Reply
Of course, every grounder the D-Backs hits goes for a hit somehow.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Yeah, he is. It’s just frustrating when he does shit like that because I have to believe he knows better.
dmick89Quote Reply
Javy!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
They way I see Maddon is that he does stupid things knowing that they might be stupid things. He’s a bit reckless, but I can’t tell if that’s a good thing or a bad thing. Unpredictability may be more optimal than over-optimizing, but whatever. Maddon remains one of five managers in history to intentionally walk a guy with the bases loaded. He’s a wildcard.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Wow. I thought that was a blooper. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
At least the Angels took the lead.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Pirates just fell behind the Angels.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
K-Hill
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Really!?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Goldy swung at that.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Yeah, he easily went around.
dmick89Quote Reply
*obligatory endorsement of robot umps on check swings too*
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
How do you measure check swings, though?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The fact that Grimm was brought in to face a lefty tells me that Joe didn’t trust Richard.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Do you?
dmick89Quote Reply
Score some runs, please.
dmick89Quote Reply
Several ways, but I would say the best would be to use current pitch-tracking/batted-ball-tracking to also track the barrel of the bat. And let’s also define *breaking the plane* as the barrel of the bat going beyond parallel with the front of the plate from a bird’s-eye view.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
How do you know he’s swinging and not, say, dodging a pitch?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
cerulean,
The rule isn’t “breaking the plane” though.
It’s did the batter “offer at” the pitch.
SKQuote Reply
The Pirates are making some noise in the bottom of the ninth.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
SK,
Yeah, the umpire’s job is to discern intent, which computers can’t do.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
As someone who wants Robot Umps Now, I wouldn’t mind changing the rule to “break the plane” and having a live ump override for cases where the guy was just trying not to get hit by the pitch or whatever.
SKQuote Reply
Sean Rodriguez was trying to break his bat in the dugout earlier. Wonder what he’ll try to break after that game ending double play. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Runs Now
dmick89Quote Reply
SK,
I actually like that idea.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I still want a home plate ump for things like fair/foul, safe/out at the plate, and even receiving the robot’s signals via his google glasses and passing them on via traditional signals. He could do this too.
SKQuote Reply
dmick89Quote Reply
Warren has been disappointingly wild this year.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Wait, they have Rizzo on the bench and they’re bringing in La Stella?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo is hitting for Szczur? Odd.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
SK,
What the fuck does that mean?
And that’s my point about it being poorly defined.
Exactly.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I hate this umpire so much.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That game sucked
dmick89Quote Reply
I can’t tell what that game was.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I would have preferred to bring Rizzo up first in the ninth so they ddid’t have the option of walking him (not a good option, anyway). Oh well. That was far from the worst managerial move I saw today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I still can’t get over him letting Arrieta hit.
dmick89Quote Reply
8–2. You’d think that we couldn’t complain, but fuck that—complain away, justifiably.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I don’t know if they win the game or not if Maddon makes the right calls. It just pisses me off that he keeps making those decisions. He’s smarter than that.
dmick89Quote Reply
Even in a 117-45 season, you have to lose sometimes.
SKQuote Reply
SK,
45 times or so if my math is correct.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I will say it again—he’s one of only 5 managers in the history of the game who has intentionally walked in a run. At least he believes walks don’t clog the bases. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Your headline of the day:
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
I was in the bathroom when that happened so when I came back out to field level I saw Miggy on second and figured there was a bunt. I was kind of annoyed with TLS PHing for Baez in the 9th, but at least that was sort of justifiable and I assume Davey made the call since Maddon was ejected.
I’m OK with 8-2 on the home stand but I was sooooo pissed that everything seemed to find grass for the Diamondbacks. Grumble.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’m glad the Cubs are going to Philadelphia and Atlanta next.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Our long national nightmare is over—a face palm emoji is coming.
/facepalm
ceruleanQuote Reply
I’m curious, does the following read as anything to any of you?
*}_[]
º}_[]
ˆ}_[]
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
When iOS 10 jailbreak comes out, I’ll have to see if I can replace that one with the Zambrano facepalm. Nobody else would see it, but it would make me laugh every time I used it, which probably wouldn’t be very often.
cerulean,
Not that I can tell. Is it supposed to make sense?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Selfie emoticons.
*}_[] Made-up selfie
°}_[] Wide-eyed selfie
ˆ}_[] Laughing selfie
°]_[] Robot selfie
[]_[] Selfie selfie
I mean, how is there not already a selfie emoticon?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Yes, this is my life. Rather than taking selfies, I make up selfie emoticons. Probably because I want to be remembered for being forgotten.
ceruleanQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/cubs-minor-league-recap-6-6-16/
dmick89Quote Reply