Nico Hoerner slides into a base

Division or Bust

In Commentary And Analysis by Rice Cube99 Comments

Given the lull between games as the Cubs traveled to London and have to do their whole tour and marketing thing before the weekend games, there isn’t much in the way of Cubs news especially since they aren’t getting any players in the next round of All-Star voting anyway. We talked a wee bit about London and All-Star stuff on the last Dreamcast but we also considered the rest of the season, where the Cubs still miraculously (or maybe not, it could go either way) have a shot at winning the division because the rest of the division is bad and I still don’t think the Reds are first-place good, although they certainly are on a tear and those wins still count.

I took a look at the playoff odds on FanGraphs the other day and then decided to wait for the Pirates to lose again before I did this. Over the weekend, all teams will be in action, and as of this moment, the odds say that the Brewers are still the odds-on favorite to win the Central while the Reds are projected to finish in fourth place behind the Cubs but just barely. Projections are good and all, but banked wins and losses still count, and it’s irksome to see a fumbling Cardinals team still projected with better odds to win the division than the Cubs. At least the Cubs have a 0.5% chance of winning the World Series, which is nonzero and triggers the Dumb and Dumber gif if I had it handy.

What is interesting is that behind the Brewers, the Cubs have the best odds of winning the Central, edging out the Cardinals and the Reds. It probably has to do with the remaining strength of schedule for all teams, but I don’t think the Reds care since they did dispatch the Astros and some other allegedly good team that I forgot in addition to mopping the floor with bottom dwellers. But this does make sense because if you look at the wild card standings, the Cubs are five games back of the Dodgers for that final spot, and they’d have to overtake the Brewers and Phillies to do it. We can reasonably assume that the Cubs are not catching the Dodgers, and if they have to leap the Brewers anyway, at that point they might as well just win the division.

Per the division standings, the Cubs sit two games back of Milwaukee and are just 3.5 games back of Cincinnati. Sweeping the Cardinals, which is always a tough ask even in a short two-game series, would bring the Cubs to 38-38 for a .500 record for the first time in a while. This weekend, I believe the only divisional matchup is this set in London between the Cardinals and the Cubs, while the others play outside their division.

Looking at the stretch before the All-Star Break, so up until July 9:

  • Reds: 3 vs ATL, 3 @ BAL, 3 vs SDP, 4 @ Nats, 3 @ Brewers (they also play the Brewers again coming out of the break)
  • Brewers: 3 @ CLE, 4 @ Mets, @ PIT, 4 vs Cubs, then those 3 against the Reds plus coming out of the break
  • Cardinals: 2 vs Cubs in London, 3 vs HOU, 3 vs Yankees, 4 @ Miami, 3 @ White Sox
  • Pirates: 4 @ Miami (including the one they already lost), 3 vs SDP, 3 vs Brewers, 4 @ Dodgers, 3 @ Dbacks
  • Cubs: 2 vs Cards in London, 3 vs PHI, 3 vs CLE, 4 @ Brewers (obviously the big series), 3 @ Yankees

I am not good enough at predicting baseball to say what will happen in these next couple weeks, but of course it would be nice for all the other teams to go 0-for while the Cubs run the table, at which point the wild card once again becomes a reality even if they stumble down the stretch. Every team the Cubs play have obvious flaws that can be exploited, but of course that can be said for the Cubs themselves. Nevertheless, everything starts with this weekend and getting back to .500, so go Cubs and may every other team implode like poorly designed submersibles.

Share this Post

Comments

  10. andcounting

    Gotta give the Cubs the edge in this series since Dansby Swanson is Britishest-sounding name I could possibly imagine.

      Quote  Reply

    2

    0
  14. berselius

    You’d think the Cardinals would feel more at home here since British cuisine is about as well regarded as St Louis style pizza

      Quote  Reply

    3

    0
  28. Author
    Rice Cube

    Alas it is not all happy news as several Cubs seem to be in broken mode 🙁

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  39. andcounting

    Did I see correctly that the Cardinals’ starter for tomorrow is out with an injury and they may have to do a bullpen start the day after Wainwright went just 3+?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  40. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    They probably should’ve saved Matz for that but if they have that travel day maybe they should think about moving someone up, given how the Cubs struggle against multiple different looks per game I’d prefer they just beat up on one guy for a while tbh

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  41. Author
    Rice Cube

    Hmmm, I still think the K zone box is a bit low even though Boog and JD did try to explain it a few games ago, but that seemed high on Madrigal there.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  47. Author
    Rice Cube

    On the one hand I kinda hate that Mancini is hitting for Bellinger…on the other hand, if you’re going to get a guy back on track it might as well be during a blowout in progress

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  49. Perkins

    andcounting:
    Gotta give the Cubs the edge in this series since Dansby Swanson is Britishest-sounding name I could possibly imagine.

    Don’t let’s forget Julian Merryweather

      Quote  Reply

    1

    0
  50. Perkins

    Are the Cubs just wearing those Advocate patches for this series? Feels weird to see no walking bear logo on the sleeve.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  51. Author
    Rice Cube

    Perkins,

    Speaking of uniform patches, it’s nice of the Cubs to Stifel the Cards offense today (so far anyway)

    I do wonder about the uniform patch as I hadn’t heard that the Cubs had nailed down a sponsorship deal, but their patch is at least nicer than the Cardinals’ ad patch. I think they’ll replace the London Series patch with the bear once they’re home.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  52. Perkins

    Rice Cube,

    Looks like the London Series patch is on the right sleeve, which I think would be the long term spot for the sponsor patch since the walking bear is on the left.

    I kinda hate sponsor patches and I don’t love the prominent Nike swoosh on the front of the jerseys, though it’s still better than an Under Armor logo would have been.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  61. Perkins

    I would not be surprised if Oli Marmol is fired after this weekend, especially if the Cubs win again tomorrow.

      Quote  Reply

    1

    0
  74. Author
    Rice Cube

    They did just play the jingles for “Weresolves of London” and “West End Girls” so at least they are in the right mood (dying laughing)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0

Leave a Comment