Dreamcast 54: Whose Fault is This Anyway?

In Podcasts, Uncategorized by Rice Cube113 Comments

From my previous rant and given the busy schedule of the other jabronis, I recruited a Twitter buddy to commiserate with re: how stupid the Cubs are and how they can potentially unfuck the offseason somewhat. You can listen below:

Appreciate you guys tolerating my angst. You can also check out the archives at Podbean.

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  1. andcounting

    Any GM, who doesn’t sign the best free agents available at times when his team desperately needs them out of fear of what that contract will look like 10 years down the road is telling you in the loudest possible way that he knows he will keep his job for 10 years if the team sucks affordably.

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  2. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    That may be true for a first-time GM who is tasked to build up a team (i.e. Kim Ng down in Miami), but I do think everyone is probably right that Jed is going to be the scapegoat here. Kind of unfortunate since I am pretty sure at least some of this is his fault, I just don’t know exactly how much because the Ricketts need at least some money to fund coups or whatever.

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  3. andcounting

    No first-time GM thinks they have job security for 10 years. Plenty of them don’t have the money to pay Carlos Correa. No one is getting fired for not overshooting their budgets, that’s not what we’re talking about. A GM who doesn’t sign someone because the contract would be too long is telling you that they anticipate the end of the contract being their problem to have to manage. Dombrowsky isn’t concerned about what the end of Turner’s contract will look like, he cares about keeping his job now by winning a World Series. He knows what he’s assigned to do.

    Jed is not expected to win a World Series anytime soon. We know this because he hasn’t quit (which he would do if he were being demanded to win without being allotted the means to do so) and he isn’t trying very hard to win now. He will not be fired. He’s doing what’s expected of him by people who pay him not by people who write about him.

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  4. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    Boy, in that case they really should have just canceled the Cubs Convention, as it is I believe they’re going to announce the rest of the schedule today (dying laughing)

    Spending just enough money to show “they tried” with what they’ve done so far and probably what they’re about to give Swanson seems like wasted money then but I guess they’ve calculated the minimum number of fans to appease to maintain their preferred profit margins.

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  5. andcounting

    If the Cubs have any intention of reaching the postseason, which I doubt, their only possible plan of attack is overtaking the Cardinals. The Phillies, Braves, Mets, Dodgers, and Padres are all shooting to win 100+ games. Barring injuries or catastrophes, none of those teams are finishing with a worse record than the Cubs.

    The Cardinals aren’t there. They are designed to have a high floor. They won’t be bad, but it would take a lot of unexpected excellence for them to reach 100 wins. The Cubs could, with a Swanson signing and a lot of luck, compete with them. They probably won’t, but it’s not impossible. That should make you happy, RC.

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  6. Author
    Rice Cube

    There is of course the possibility that Jed and Friends know exactly what they’re doing and will shut us right up, but I wouldn’t place bets at the Wrigley Sportsbook on that

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  7. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    Which do you think is more likely: Jed doesn’t know what he’s doing or we don’t know what it is Jed’s trying to do?

    “I’m going to talk playoffs and I’m going to talk World Series this year, I promise you. And I’m going to believe it.” —Joe Maddon in his opening press conference as Cubs manager

    No one is saying that, yet somehow we still think there are people in the Cubs organization who are thinking it. They’re using words like competitive, playoffs, and spending, but it’s all tempered with words and phrases like intelligent and within reason. There is no evidence they think this team is on the same trajectory as the 2015 Cubs. They might think this is the 2014 Cubs. Kind of. They aren’t running out to get this year’s Heyward, Lester, Zobrist, or Lackey and those types aren’t climbing over each other to get here. Those are the FAs you get when you’re on the launchpad, but the Cubs are still at the drawing board. They’re basically trying to get to a spot where a real difference maker would actually be interested in getting on board.

    Jed is actually thinking long term. The main difference between his mindset and ours is that he doesn’t care as much about what this team does in 2023.

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  8. Smokestack Lightning

    Rice Cube: What even the hell re: Cubs and Correa

    All of this makes a lot more sense once you understand the assistant to the traveling secretary was leading the negotiations…

    Jerry: So how did it go with Correa?
    George: Beautiful, Jerry. I’m bustin’! I’m bustin’! I did everything exactly the way I drew it up. The Strategy. I executed it perfectly!
    Jerry: Well, lay it on me, Costanza. How’d you pull it off?
    George: Alright, alright. So we sit down at Monk’s and order lunch. By the way, I didn’t get the tuna, Jerry. I stayed far away from the tuna. I went with the club.
    Jerry: Of course! All master negotiators order the club. It’s the king of sandwiches.
    George: And I made sure I ordered first too. Talked right over him to get my order in.
    Jerry: You… interrupted… the wildly talented baseball player you’re trying to convince to play for your team…
    George: Yeah, he kinda gave me a dirty look too—but I had to do it.
    Jerry: And why would you think you had to do something like that?
    George: Because I knew he was going to order the club sandwich, and I had to make sure I got my order in before he did. That way, when he ordered his club sandwich, he would just be copying me. Get it?
    Jerry: Not really.
    George: The ordering of the sandwiches establishes who has the dominant position in the negotiations. If he goes first and orders the club sandwich, then I order the same thing right after, then I’m just some schmuck he’ll think he can push around and give him everything he wants.
    Jerry: And you don’t want to give the wildly talented baseball player you desperately need on your team everything he wants…
    George: Have you been around ballplayers before, Jerry? There’s no limit to the things they want! Cars, women, vast tracts of open space. They’re the greedy land barons of our age. If you give one inch, just one, well, then they swoop right in and take everything. And you and me, we’ll have no choice but to be their serfs, eking out a wretched existence on a miserable piece of hardscrabble earth no bigger than this couch!
    Jerry: You know, I hate it when I’m in a restaurant with someone and they order exactly what I wanted to get. Makes me not want it anymore. Like why would I want to have the same thing this moron is getting? I don’t like this person.
    George: So don’t get what they get.
    Jerry: But then I have to get something I don’t want while sitting with this person I don’t want to be with all while they’re eating exactly what I do want right in front of me.
    George: Are you through? May I proceed?
    Jerry: You may.
    George: Alright. So—
    Jerry: —Wait. Did Correa also get the club?
    George: Eh, he went with the patty melt. Anyway. So we’re sitting there. Me with the king of sandwiches and him with… whatever the hell the patty melt is in the royal sandwich court. And I’m bringing out the Strategy. And it’s a thing of beauty. I’m giving him the outline, some parameters…
    Jerry: Did you throw in some broad strokes? Everybody loves a good broad stroke.
    George: I had broad strokes coming out the yin-yang. And he’s just eating out of my hand, Jerry. He’s with me on the outline, he’s digging the parameters, and the broad strokes are just blowing him away!
    Jerry: Okay. That sounds promising. So then what?
    George: What do you mean so then what? We finished our sandwiches, he paid, and I left.
    Jerry: Well, I assume you must have gotten down to brass tacks at least a little bit. Talked some turkey. Made him some kind of general contractual offer as to how much you’d be willing to pay him to play baseball for you.
    George: Jerry, please. That’s just what they want you to do. Make ’em an offer that they then flash around town like a hooker to 29 other teams, and before you know it, you’re scrambling to promise a bonus to the signing bonus along with a diamond-encrusted throne for them to sit on in the dugout between innings just to get them back to the negotiating table! Only now, everybody else is at the table too, and it’s become a bidding war. And a bidding war can never be won, Jerry, only lost! Whereas if you stick to talking vaguely, parametrically—
    Jerry: —with broad strokes—
    George: —exactly. Showmanship. The art of the dance. I didn’t invent it, I just know how to use it. These ballplayers, Jerry. They want you to seduce them, to tantalize. You know, show them a little leg, maybe some cleavage, but with us that’s as far as it goes.
    Jerry: I would certainly hope that’s the case.
    George: We always keep our virtue. While at the same time, we get them, the player, all hot and bothered to find out just how incredible our offer is gonna be, but only once we’re good and ready to make it. And then while all the other teams are out there degrading themselves—debasing themselves— slobbering all over the furniture, begging, “Oh please oh please, come play for us, we’ll give you anything you want, we’ll do anything”—the player won’t be listening to any of it, because they won’t be able to stop thinking about us.
    Jerry: And our cleavage and virtue.
    George: Don’t you see it? The genius of the Strategy? Nothing! No offer! All tease!
    Jerry: So you drive Correa crazy with anticipation, get him all revved up with the idea of just how astronomical your offer is gonna be—
    George: —and then you simply pull back, kick up your feet, and wait for him to come to you.
    Jerry: That’s not bad. And it worked?
    George: No, he signed with the Giants an hour after lunch. You got any tuna?

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  9. andcounting

    The Cubs started a rebuild the year after minor league baseball’s entire season was scrapped. Like, every prospect the Cubs have developed and acquired is a year behind schedule by default, and that’s when they decided to rebuild.

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  10. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    As you said before, the Cubs just have to overtake the Cardinals (also in the new podcast #shamelessplug) and if they even sneak into the wild card (probably impossible given the assumed field of juggernauts since the rest of the NL has given up already) then you appease the minimum number of fans needed to maintain acceptable profits. So they probably figure they can ride this for just a bit longer before Jed’s master plan comes to fruition. I guess the Theo line about how they have to trust the process and be faithful to their philosophies still holds true, even if it pisses us off. I would enjoy being proven wrong, but it is entirely possible that they’ve been passed up as partly evidenced by how much all that talent just stopped being awesome and just held on by a thread before they were dumped in 2021. I will say it’s not fun right now to be a Cubs fan and I don’t know when it will start being fun again if they’re all business and not thinking about a product that caters to what we want, which is a perennial winner. But I guess building that winner takes time since they fucked up the last opportunity?

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  11. andcounting

    Rice Cube: As you said before, the Cubs just have to overtake the Cardinals

    Hey, don’t ascribe that bullshit to me, (dying laughing). What I said is the Cubs only hope of reaching the playoffs is overtaking the Cardinals. The Cubs have a responsibility to strive to be the best team in baseball every fucking year, given their revenue streams. I never suggested all they need to do is win the division. The reality is that is their only remote hope for this season.

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  12. Smokestack Lightning

    Rice Cube:
    Smokestack Lightning,

    I have watched very few Seinfeld episodes willingly yet I am still amused

    Impossible not to feel a little silly posting something like the above, but somewhere along the line last night, I got it into my head that I needed to have something to show for the insomnia.

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  13. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    Darn that game of telephone, but yes, a juggernaut is probably out of the question this year barring a how-TF did the Giants win that many games in 2021 thing…

    This was partly a “well, duh” article and also thought-provoking because I imagine somewhere in the minor league HQ is all the data re: how the shift restrictions affected defensive stats and offensive output, but I can’t look that up right now

    https://www.thescore.com/news/2514109

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  14. Perkins

    andcounting,

    I don’t think it’s that Jed doesn’t know what he’s doing as much as he’s being overly stubborn about both his process and the state of the market. There just aren’t that many difference makers hitting FA next year and I don’t think anyone should expect a real pursuit of Ohtani. Correa doesn’t line up in quite the same way Lester did, but he’s not available next year.

    If we want to compare this year’s club to a less exciting version of 2014, then Lester was the big get that offseason. Probably Montero and Fowler after that, but that team also made quite a few volatility or utility moves like Tommy LaStella, Jason Motte, and Chris Denorfia. The expectation for 2015 had been about a mid to high 80s win team after those moves, which they obviously blew well past. The Lester signing was more about 2016 than 2015, just as Correa would have been more about 24/25 than 23.

    I guess the major difference is the current Cubs lack the critical mass of impact talent in the upper minors that the 14 team had, but it feels like this front office is too wedded to the idea of waiting until the home grown players are ready rather than doing like the Dodgers by getting good players when they’re available and turning over part of the roster every season.

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  15. Author
    Rice Cube

    Perkins,

    I’d much prefer it if they recognized that most of the pitching in the system is probably mid-tier ceiling and just get a top-of-the-rotation arm knowing that they at least have a high floor to build upon.

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  16. andcounting

    Perkins,

    Yeah, I mean, there are a lot of differences between where the Cubs are now and where they were in 2014, no question. But I do think there is more than one important member of the 2024 roster that are currently in the minors.

    But the simplest way I can say what I’m trying to say is I don’t think Jed is battling to make the playoffs this year. I think he’s trying to avoid being eliminated from the playoffs in April or May.

    In the bigger picture, Jed probably wants to be able to expect to make the playoffs in 2024. I do agree that he misread the market (or that he didn’t accurately prepare Ricketts or Kenney for how the market would play out). Unless I’m mistaken, it’s Ricketts and Kenney who have been the most outspoken about the plans to spend this offseason. It could be that they based their estimates on last season’s signings in which quite a few shortstops signed across a broad spectrum of numbers. That could have been similar to predicting how much you were going to pay for a house in the summer of 2021 based on EOY 2019 numbers. That shit changed quite a lot and I don’t know that it’s fair to think anyone could or should have seen that coming. It’s what happened and the only teams capable of/interested in really taking advantage of it were the teams that were already good and already spending a lot.

    I mean, the Giants got Correa and I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs next year.

    But bottom line for right now, I think Jed and the organization in general is perfectly content being a year or two out from seriously competing. They would have done more if the market didn’t explode, but they’re not losing sleep over it.

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  17. andcounting

    andcounting,

    The best way I can describe what happened to the free agent market is that no one expected all of last year’s NL playoff teams to try so hard to improve. They pretty much all went all-in on free agents. I don’t think that has ever happened on this scale.

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  18. andcounting

    Rice Cube:
    Perkins,

    I’d much prefer it if they recognized that most of the pitching in the system is probably mid-tier ceiling and just get a top-of-the-rotation arm knowing that they at least have a high floor to build upon.

    I think they’re probably recognizing that’s fine if their bullpen development is near-elite. They don’t need shutdown front-end starters if they have a rotation full of guys who can pitch five innings of 1- to 2-run baseball and a suffocating bullpen.

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  19. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    I think not having the 30-man and 28-man provisions at the beginning of the season and the 13-pitcher limit will wear down that pen real quick along with the new options-limit per season and the minimum 15-day IL for pitchers, there’s not as much taxi-squadding they can do these days, so it’s probably still a good idea to get a guy who can go 6 or 7 innings here and there. But from our prior talk of the pitch clock, maybe that’s part of it, right? If they can’t or just don’t go max effort every pitch now, they basically manage contact and try to build a defense around contact managers. And now I’m rationalizing this Jed plan I don’t fully understand!

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  20. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    The theory I’ve seen and probably shared with y’all is that because there are fewer ways to get amateur talent or build through more inexpensive means now (due to artificially depressed salaries for younger players), the only real choice teams have at this time is to throw money at good players that become available via free agency, so that means they’ll have to pivot if they want to compete that way. I guess they don’t feel they have to and are willing to wait it out as you said, which seems again like wasted opportunity given that they’ll make money hand over fist if they just tried a little harder…

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  21. Author
    Rice Cube

    Rice Cube,

    The alternative theory (mine) is that MLB owners are colluding in a kind of round-robin fashion where a select group (i.e. Oakland and Pittsburgh) always agree to just sit out free agency, while they allow another select group (i.e. all the playoff teams) to go nuts and at least show MLBPA that money is still flowing, see?

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  22. Author
    Rice Cube

    Rice Cube,

    As if on cue, a thread if you’re interested

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  23. Author
    Rice Cube

    The Mookie Betts trade officially being a disaster for the Red Sox makes me think about how it was such BS that the Cubs couldn’t build around Bryzzo and Javy and Schwarber and Contreras, but I guess that’s why I don’t make the big bucks

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  24. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    I just don’t think you’re going to see the Cubs make a giant departure from the approach they take to managing a pitching staff. Front-end starter is more of a postseason need than a regular season need IMHO. It’s the obvious gaping holes in the batting order that trouble me most. Reality dictates that CF, C, 2B will be pretty terrible. The starting rotation isn’t on my list of must-have upgrades anymore. As disappointing as Swanson would be as a top free agent acquisition, he still plugs one of those holes. I don’t see a path where the Cubs have a + bat at catcher, but if Bellinger gets even a little better and Wisdom and Morel don’t take steps backwards, a decent rookie year for Mervis could make this team watchable.

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  25. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    If there’s one thing we can safely say Jed probably sucks at, it’s gotta be negotiating, right? I mean, talks just absolutely ended with every single member of the original core, and he obviously didn’t have great success this offseason.

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  26. Perkins

    At this point I’d say the Cubs should sign Dansby Swanson and Justin Turner. Swanson isn’t an upgrade over Hoerner, but rather Madrigal, so that’s nontrivial. Turner’s old but he’s at least a pretty good hitter and can hold third for a year or two. Platoon Wisdom and Mervis at 1B. Maybe sign another SP and Omar Narvaez.

    It’s far from ideal (relative to start of offseason expectations), but I could see it looking decent enough to overtake the Cardinals with a couple of breaks.

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  27. andcounting

    It’s pretty funny that Elon reacted to journalists saying they had an interaction with him by calling it doxxing his location. If you’re playing hide and seek, I get it, that’s shitty behavior, but if it’s just Wednesday, you’re subjecting doxxing to some pretty hardcore labor demands.

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  28. berselius

    uncle dave:
    As a lifelong Democrat I find it very comforting that the Cubs fielding a winner is always precisely two years away.

    As a sometime fusion energy researcher, I am heartened by the fact that the Cubs fielding a winner has gone from 50 years away to 40 years away.

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  29. andcounting

    It’s funny that the most severe punishment ever handed down in baseball was to a bunch of guys in Chicago who decided to intentionally try not to win and instead just take a bunch of money from gamblers and now that’s the bio for Cubs ownership.

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  30. Author
    Rice Cube

    Rice Cube,

    Oooh they could also ship over the Marlins Park roof since Wrigleyville is getting all built up anyway and Wrigley Field is starting to resemble what they did with Soldier Field per renderings of the sportsbook currently under construction

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  31. andcounting

    I quit twitter and won’t reconsider. Too rhymy? Naw, I’ll leave it. But it has me listening to Chicago sports radio as an outlet, but goddamn these guys sure do have the capacity to be stupid.

    Chase Claypool is injured and will miss a meaningless game. This is somehow a reason to question his value as a receiver moving forward. Someone actually said “I still think he should be on the team next season.” The fuck?

    The Bears are coming off a bye week, the Cubs only story is that they’re doing nothing, and the White Sox only story is that they are somehow doing less than the Cubs. I’m losing my mind.

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  32. dmick89

    Rice Cube,

    Let’s see what Jeff or Adam says. They were the ones who did the podcasting. It’s all pretty unfamiliar to me. Is it crucial for the podcast to show up on the OV podcast? Would it make more sense to retire that one and keep using the one you’ve been using since it is more active? I don’t want to make anything more difficult for anyone. Hope I just can find ways to help out. Thoughts?

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  33. andcounting

    dmick89,

    I can look into it this evening, if nobody else can, but I might be even further behind you in my familiarity with how it’s set up here. I wouldn’t mind learning, though, (dying laughing).

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  34. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    I just use a hosting service because it’s easier and it gives me an embeddable interface, I don’t really mind if you piggyback off of it since only like 10 people listen now. Used to get pretty good numbers though, but that was back when I was younger and had far fewer responsibilities (dying laughing)

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  35. Author
    Rice Cube

    dmick89,

    The hosting service I use (Podbean) allows me to set up an RSS feed and I believe that is how Apple and other podcatchers find the show and distribute it. The RSS feed should theoretically work on everything including Spotify.

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  36. andcounting

    Twins signed Joey Gallo, which I don’t think puts them out of reach on Swanson, though it’s not exactly the most convincing sign they’re poised to win a championship either.

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  37. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    We’re talking about a dude who didn’t want to pay Michael Jordan. No joke, when people talk about the owners not wanting to approve Steve Cohen’s purchase of the Mets, Reinsdorf is at the head of that table.

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  38. dmick89

    I think I set up the podcast with Apple. At least I found the podcast associated with my Apple ID. RC, I’ll send you an email and maybe you, Jeff, Adam and I can talk about this off site so we don’t bore our millions of readers.

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  39. berselius

    dmick89: Does anyone know who set up the podcast and how it’s set up on Apple? How does Apple know to search a feed? (dying laughing)

    It me (dying laughing). Sorry for the slow response, I don’t/can’t usually check the site when I’m working in the salt mines.

    IIRC whatever podcast plugin we have on wordpress did the heavy lifting. I think all I had to do to get the first of the new podcasts to show up was

    1. Mark it as a ‘podcast’ category in the post
    2. Upload the mp3 of the podcast to our media library
    3. Add that mp3 file to the post content body (I think I just dragged it in or something?)

    Then apple podcasts picked it up.

    It looks like Rice’s PodBean embedder code does not get picked up by apple – I think that wordpress needs to know where it is and be the one that hosts it to appear in the RSS. I tried doing this after the fact with the last podcast and the feed didn’t catch it – I think it must get triggered with a new post.

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  40. berselius

    uncle dave: (dying laughing) the Cubs are behind notorious free spender Jerry Reinsdorf in payroll.

    Also seems weird to see the big gap in franchise value between the Mets and the Giants. Must be internalized East Coast Bias on my part (dying laughing).

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  41. dmick89

    dmick89,

    The feed url that I have on Apple actually isn’t the one that shows up in the Podcasting admin section so I’m pretty sure someone else set up a feed through Apple. This is funny.

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  42. Author
    Rice Cube

    Sorry to cause inconvenience, if you give me an SOP or something I can use the Podcast thing you showed me and follow Jeff’s guide to see what happens next time. I did actually put this post in the Podcasts category at least!

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  43. dmick89

    Rice Cube,

    No reason to apologize. Truthfully I’m just at the point where I’d like to figure it out. You definitely didn’t cause any issues. I’m thankful for all you’re doing around here and if figuring out this podcasting thing might help you in any way, great. Might be a waste of time, but it’s better than opening twitter and being pissed off at the world. (dying laughing)

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  44. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    In all seriousness, this is the consistent message being pumped out of the Cubs propaganda machine. Jed isn’t signing free agents out of desperation. Meanwhile, Tom and Crane keep shouting from the rooftops that Jed has a flexible budget to sign whomever he chooses. A lot of people interpret the latter message as throwing Jed under the bus, but it’s not. What they’re saying is if Jed doesn’t sign anyone it’s because, in the grand scheme of things, it didn’t make sense to do it—and they trust Jed’s judgment. With this coordinated messaging, the Cubs can assert they’re being smart not cheap.

    And Jed could be right. His strategy could be that this run on free agents for decade-long deals is going to leave a lot of teams looking to dump salary in the very near future and unwilling to deal prospects. When the trade deadline comes around, teams that have spent all winter feasting on free agents are going to have a hard time making deals for veterans. The Cubs could be in prime position to acquire some big stars on expiring contracts (Ohtani maybe?) when teams like the Mets, Phillies, Padres, Giants, etc. might not have as much to offer or the willingness to take on excess salary like the Cubs would.

    If this team manages to tread water and eke out low-scoring wins in the first half of the season the way they did the last half of last season, they could have tons of flexibility to improve in July. It’s not unthinkable.

    If I were Jed, that’s what I’d be telling people anyway.

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  45. andcounting

    Seriously, so many people are arguing that no team is willing to trade premium prospects which makes pulling off trades impossible…unless you’re the one team willing to trade prospects. And you can probably get more with less in that kind of market.

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  46. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    Yeah, I’m really curious what this free agent market does to the previous trend of extending players super early in their careers as well as the decisions about dealing players as their contracts expire.

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  47. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    If the “poor” owners are fed up with Cohen and the big spenders I wonder if they’ll finally open their books and do full revenue sharing and funnel more money to the young players so they don’t have to spend “wasteful” late career money.

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  48. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    With minor league participation in the players union, I don’t think they’ll ever take it that far. There are way too many people in line to lay claim to that revenue. I expect the owners to manipulate the market to make it work for them. If they can get younger players to accept more money than they’re currently getting in a way that keeps them under team control until a more owner-friendly free-agent window (late 20s early 30s) opens, they can probably save money in the long run somehow.

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