This Friday is the Cubs Convention, and also happens to be the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to submit their salary figures for 2023 (other key dates remain but this is probably the biggest one coming up). The gist is that if they can’t come to a compromise, the team submits one number, the player submits another, and then sometime in February before Spring Training gets into full swing, both sides meet in front of an arbitrator where the team says how much the player sucks and doesn’t deserve their number. Since the Cubs are a file-and-trial club these days, with very few exceptions (such as with former Cubs All-Star Willson Contreras, who I still think they should have kept around), they will go to arbitration if a compromise isn’t announced sometime Friday.
As luck would have it, the fine folks at MLBTR have their remarkably quite accurate arbitration projections for every eligible player, including the Cubs (some of these names we won’t care about because they’re gone):
Cubs (10)
- Ian Happ (5.036): $10.6MM
- Steven Brault (4.167): $1.7MM
- Franmil Reyes (4.115): $6MM
- Rowan Wick (3.114): $1.5MM
- Alec Mills (3.097): $800K
- Brad Wieck (3.085): $800K
- Nico Hoerner (3.014): $2.2MM
- Codi Heuer (3.000): $800K
- Nick Madrigal (2.164): $1.1MM
- Rafael Ortega (2.145): $1.7MM
Of these, Ortega was non-tendered and is going to the Yankees on a minor league deal. The group of Brault, Mills, and Franmil Reyes were outrighted but elected free agency. Wieck got a two-year minor league deal to continue rehabbing his injury with the Cubs, while Wick without the E got a deal just above his MLBTR projection.
This leaves Happ, Hoerner, Codi Heuer, and Nick Madrigal. Heuer of course is still rehabbing his Tommy John surgery while Madrigal is hopefully recovering from the myriad injuries that have plagued him throughout his career, the latest of which was the groin pull that ended his 2022. The expectation is that Heuer will be a boost to the bullpen once he fully recovers, but with the signing of Dansby Swanson and the acquisition of numerous utility guys this offseason, Madrigal might be trade bait, although I think if he’s ever healthy, his high contact bat (allegedly) might be useful as a bench option. It could go either way.
Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner are two Gold Glove-caliber defenders who hit well last season as rare bright spots in an otherwise lost season. Logically, they are the subject of extension speculation, as Happ will be entering free agency shy of age 30 and Nico is still quite young as well. I’ve written before about how Happ should stick around, but the prevailing thought is that with next offseason’s relatively weak free agent class and the fact that Happ is the Cubs union representative, he is going to have to be wowed to forgo free agency. The other consideration, of course, is inflation and the eye-popping contracts that were thrown around this offseason for elite shortstops and outfielders. While we can’t really call Nico or Happ “elite” with a straight face, there is a market for solidly good position players, and the Cubs will have to open up their purse-strings a bit to get any extensions done, as with a “normal” offseason this time around, they might really just go full file-and-trial, so the clock is ticking. Ideally they’ll just agree to an arbitration salary so they can negotiate between now and the spring training report date (probably around Valentine’s Day) to get the extension done if both sides, as indicated previously, are serious about keeping the relationship going. For Happ and Hoerner, at least, the Cubs will have to pay up because there’s little room for team friendliness these days.
Comments
If I were to hazard a guess:
Happ – at least 6 years at $20MM per based on what Nimmo got
Hoerner – probably 5 years for total of at least $60MM based on some napkin math off of previous extensions for infielders
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Angels are trash but I’m glad this guy is employed again
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/angels-to-sign-brett-phillips-to-major-league-deal.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Twins are turning up the heat on Correa. God, this story rules.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I was about to say (dying laughing)
At least he won’t have to move now
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1612655747577380864?t=47LKUK2TMVmb7e4CGV_qLw&s=19
Rice CubeQuote Reply
New Quantumania trailer for all who celebrate
https://youtu.be/5WfTEZJnv_8
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
That’s all kind of crazy. His ankle must be complete shit, but he’s been okay so far.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Brisbee and McCullough were saying on their podcast last time that they both heard the ankle reconstruction was wonky so something must have slipped loose, but I’m also not anywhere close to that kind of doctor
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Not a bad deal by the Fish, kinda wish they’d give Kim Ng more resources to see what she can really do with a team but also to hell with the Marlins
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
The Marlins might have new ownership, but it seems like it’s the same business model. Championship mode or rebuilding mode with very little in between.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Ng is doing the best with what she can but I’m looking at that rotation and thinking they can at least keep games close
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
You should check out how much that rotation costs. Alcántara’s salary is severely backloaded. He’ll make the same money as Cueto this year (for luxury tax purposes it’s higher including $300k of his signing bonus, but their base salaries are the same). I think they have just one other post-arb pitcher whose 2023 salary is TBD, probably ~$3 million. But their entire rotation costs them roughly between a Hendricks and a Taillon, or about half a deGrom.
I’d say Kim is killNg it.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Oh yeah she’s gonna have to trade them within 3 seasons unless whoever owns the Marlins suddenly feels generous
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I mean, she’s going to wind up trading one or more cost-controlled starters for god knows what, but she’s in a really good position to haul in either great prospects or a decent veteran from a team willing to eat contract $ (or some combination of both).
andcountingQuote Reply
Hmm, a Nashville baseball team seems logical
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/don-mattingly-advisor-nashville-stars-expansion-team-mlb.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
andcounting,
It’s a lot harder these days to do the Moneyball thing but I feel like Ng has pretty good insights and I’d like to see her succeed, albeit not against the Cubs of course
Rice CubeQuote Reply
LMAO
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Arson Judge caveat applies
Rice CubeQuote Reply
*bans andcounting, deletes entire post and comment history*
berseliusQuote Reply
Maybe they signed Carlos Cornea
berseliusQuote Reply
Fixed.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Both the Mets and Giants look foolish, and Carlos Correa makes significantly less than he was projected to. I consider this an absolute win.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
Kinda wish the Cubs had jumped in, but I guess an explody ankle is a good enough reason to be hesitant…however, that doesn’t really excuse not signing *waves hands* all the other available guys before they got snatched up
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I know that somehow the Cardinals will end up with a compensatory draft pick for this.
berseliusQuote Reply
Welp
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I looked at this headline and my first thought was that Drax was probably not an option going forward
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/looking-through-the-guardians-outfield-possibilities.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Nothing goes over his head though! The perfect OF.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Indeed, his reflexes are too fast, he would catch it
Rice CubeQuote Reply
So the Twins end up paying a little more for Correa than the Cubs are paying Swanson. Jesus.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah, that’s how it seems. It is about $8 million less a year and has the potential to be $100 million more overall if all of his options vest or the Twins just decide he’s worth keeping for four more years. Cubs also miss out on the excitement of having a player’s ankle constructed out of plastic explosives, so that’s no fun.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
We have the technology. We can make him better than he was. Better, stronger, faster.
What am I saying, it’s the Cubs, everybody breaks forever.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
dmick89,
andcounting,
To be quasi-serious for a moment, my initial reaction was a combination of “The Cubs could’ve done that!” and “Well, nobody expected that ankle to be the proverbial time bomb” which is partly why the Twins were able to get this creative, not to mention that Correa wouldn’t have to move so there’s a sort of convenience factor there. It’s super disappointing not to have a vacuum cleaner at 3 of the 4 infield positions to balance out the alleged statue that is Matt Mervis, but I also can understand why it is. And I guess we have to hope their 6 Gold Glove-potential out of 9 positions (nice) plan actually works because I still can’t see consistent run scoring from the team as currently constructed 🤷🏻♂️
For those of you who wish to navigate the paywall:
https://theathletic.com/4079407/2023/01/11/carlos-correa-twins-agent-contract-injury/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Just another sort of speculative article re: Carlos Correa’s Nuclear Ankle
https://www.knbr.com/2023/01/07/whats-up-with-carlos-correas-ankle-we-asked-an-expert/
I guess with HIPAA we won’t know for sure, and I also didn’t bother trying to get past the Athletic’s paywall so don’t know if Rosenthal and friends addressed it.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Oooooh it’s on
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Ultimately it was about risk and insecurity versus reward and opportunity and the emotion that runs through it all. Whatever is going on with his ankle, it had to be bad enough to make Steve Cohen suddenly risk averse, which didn’t seem possible a month ago. Who knows where the Giants are right now, but the Mets must have had the taste of a 2-game postseason return to their mouths. The Twins saw a chance to snatch the number 1 shortstop on the market from the big spenders, and missing out on Correa must have felt like a bigger threat than an injury. (Plus, it seems like he’s actually taking a pay cut from the Twins contract he just opted out of, which has to feel like house money to them.) I’m guessing they looked at his ankle and thought, well, between him and Byron Buxton maybe we’ve got one fully healthy player. How bad can it be?
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I agree with you that the Twins were happy to accept the risk, and there’s a couple of things that I’ll state re: the Cubs missing out…firstly, I’m not upset given what we know at this time that the Cubs elected not to bring in Correa, but also, I am still disappointed that they let all those names go off the board before they possibly settled on Dansby and Barnhart and crew even before this Correa situation was resolved. There does need to be a bit more assertiveness and risk in the Cubs strategy going forward, but I don’t think you hang this on the Correa thing either.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I will never leave this hellsite until it crashes, it’s always full of gold
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Brett at BN shared a report that the Mets slashed their initial offer to Correa in half before the Twins jumped in #yikes
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Frodo Baggins it is done dot gif
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Depends on whom you believe
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’m 100% in agreement on the lack of aggressiveness being hugely disappointing. I can’t even entertain discussion about the luxury tax because I don’t recognize cost limitations for billionaires as legitimate.
But I’m past that because I accepted that wasn’t changing at all. True, spend-happy aggression is not what they’re going to do. It’s not what Jed is ever going to do. At some point maybe the Cubs enter that mode. I don’t know. That’s why I had said from the beginning that if they were truly going to be aggressive we’d know right away.
Jed is trying to be clever, and maybe it works.
I’m super interested to know if the Twins saw something different in this year’s physical than what they saw last year when they signed Correa.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I think the original deal from the Twins was for 10/$285MM, so they shortened it because of the two fails with some extra leverage. They likely already knew about the ankle if they have to do some kind of exit physical pending free agency or they checked it periodically during the season, they couldn’t have been in the dark, right?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I don’t know about exit physicals if they are a thing. What I’m really curious about though is if they just didn’t notice the problem with his ankle last year or if there has been significant change. Either one seems entirely possible. But if they are looking at imaging from last year and comparing it to this year, they would have more information than anyone since they were likely the only ones to conduct a physical on him last offseason. If they’re noticing a sizable difference, they have significant leverage on Correa. If they’re noticing no difference, they have a distinct advantage over the rest of the league. It will never stop being a fascinating story.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Will be a fun 30-for-30 in a couple decades
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Gist: there’s a huge difference between doctors who have seen Correa nearly every day for a year (read: on the payroll) vs those who haven’t (read: not on the payroll)
Grain of salt etc etc
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35425668
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
(dying laughing) Boras is so full of shit.
andcountingQuote Reply
I guess the Cubs excuse might be “weird timing” but also a one-year deal with only the A’s (who have their own set of stupid issues) might say something?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
andcounting,
I might have missed it but he really must be full of it if he didn’t make an obvious pun
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This is just Boob doing his thing and also it’s not like the Cubs can afford much more of the “no defense, iffy bat” type players, but boy would this have been fun for a spell
Rice CubeQuote Reply
New shit –> http://www.obstructedview.net/probably-too-early-pre-convention-cubs-lineup-construction/
Rice CubeQuote Reply