Eloy Jimenez to Sign After the Trade Deadline
Jesse Sanchez reported Sunday that Eloy Jimenez will sign for $2.8 million with the Cubs on August 1st or 2nd. This is not overly surprising, as his agreement with the team has been in place for weeks, and the extra time gives the Cubs the opportunity to acquire pool space in trade prior to the deadline. More interesting, though, is the tidbit that Jimenez turned down a five million dollar offer from another team. I don't dismiss this report out of hand simply because of what the Rangers have done in completely ignoring their spending pool in pursuit of top prospects. The Rangers are clearly going incurring max penalties for next season, so it's easy for me to believe that they threw money at Jimenez this year in an attempt to woo him away from his established relationship with the Cubs. If Eloy did agree for a little more than half of what another team was offering, the Cubs need to give whoever their Dominican Calipari is (Louis Eljaua?) a substantial raise. While they are at it, maybe send a few sweaters Sammy Sosa's way.
Small Bear Grab Catfish?
On July 9th, Sanchez reported that the Cubs were close to a deal with Taiwanese RHP Jen-Ho Tseng (aka Catfish). At the time, I was skeptical that the Cubs would exceed their international spending pool limits if they could avoid it. However, I didn't think they would go so far as to negotiate with a prospect under false pretenses simply to regain some leverage in trade talks aimed at acquiring more space. As we have seen, in the IFA market, informal agreements carry a lot of weight. This led me to believe the price of acquiring space had become too high and they were resigned to the fact that they would go over, deciding instead to make the best of it and go for Tseng. Two weeks later, though, Catfish still has not signed, and I'm leaning towards my original position.
Tseng is not a typical IFA. If the Cubs were to back out on their agreement with Eloy, they would be wise to hire extra security for their shiny new island facility and instruct them to be on the lookout for angry buscones. Tseng, on the other hand, is represented by Scott Boras, who seems to be following the typical Boras playbook in these negotiations. The first step, of course, is to threaten to forgo signing and attend school. (Check). The second step is to play two teams against one another, even if one of the teams is less than completely serious about the negotiations. Usually this step requires the infamous Mystery Team, but not in this case. The Cubs are as happy to use Boras as he is to have a bigger offer to take to another team, because the Cubs need to prove they are not that desparate to acquire more pool space.
My guess is that the Catfish negotiations played out something like this: The Indians and Twins were interested Tseng, and were offering in the neighborhood of one million dollars. The Cubs approached Boras, and said they would be happy to offer substantially more, say $1.5 million, but that figure was contingent upon the lack of an appropriate trade happening prior to the deadline. For Boras, it was worth the risk, and he took that offer to the Indians and Twins to get them to match. The Indians moved on, while the Twins decided to wait and see how it would play out.
The main piece of evidence in favor of this theory is simply that Tseng has not signed yet. In the case of Jimenez, the Cubs can maintain the company line that they are not concerned about exceeding their allotment, because once Eloy signs for his $2.8 million, they will no longer be able to acquire more space and "save a few dollars in taxes". In Tseng's case, this rationale doesn't hold water. The Cubs currently have about $2.3 million in remaining space, and could sign Tseng for up to $2.29 million and still acquire more space before making things official with Eloy. Tseng won't require anywhere near that amount, meaning there is no real reason for the Cubs not to act now if they are completely committed. The Taiwanese media seems to get the picture.
The Cubs need to acquire around $460k between now and the deadline to be able to sign Eloy Jimenez and stay out of the 2014 penalties. At this point, I expect them to either pull that off and end their pursuit of Tseng, or fall short and lock up the righty.
**UPDATES**
The Indians have officially agreed to terms with Leandro Linares for $950k. Meanwhile, the Twins are indeed waiting on Tseng. Both of these developments support my reading of the situation.
Comments
i’ve heard reports that the Cubs are pursuing Luis Encarnation and Leonardo Molina as well as Jen-Ho Tseng. If they sign any of them, they’ll blow past 15% of their maximum allotment, no matter how much or how little additional pool money they could acquire. Molina can sign as early as August 1, and Encarnation can sign as early as August 9. They may decide not to sign Tseng if they are unable to sign one or both of the other prospects, but if they do they’ll probably pay the tax and sign him too.
cubsinQuote Reply
Still busy reading every word…
dmick89 wrote:
Yeah. The trade is the typical deadline variety. Lack of draft pick compensation makes it more questionable for TEX. Lack of need makes it WTF.
Yu seems healthy. Holland looks like he did before they ran him into the ground two years ago. Ogando is coming off the DL to start tonight. Perez seems to be staying afloat right now.
I like Garza, but he’s possibly the team’s fourth best starter right now. If Matt Harrison hits the ground running in September, he’s the fifth best starter.
Olt OR Edwards seems like a steep price to upgrade your fourth starter for 1/3 of the season.
RynoQuote Reply
I think the 5 million dollar number is bullshit
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Justin Grimm seems like he’ll be a late bloomer. He has a good changeup and a really good curve sometimes, but his fastball usually lacks movement. When he’s hitting his spots, he’s pretty good.
RynoQuote Reply
cubsin wrote:
RynoQuote Reply
aside: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/cubs-close-to-trading-alfonso-soriano-to-yankees.html
dmick89Quote Reply
Wrote this elsewhere but will post here:
Couple thoughts because well I like thoughts:
1. Love that we have developed plenty of up the middle guys. Up the middle guys can always be moved to different positions and still be solid defenders. The fact that we have developed all guys like Castro, Baez, Lake, Alcantara at SS, is a very good thing.
2. No need to worry about positional issues just yet. But we are getting closer than some people think. I would not be surprised if we see Castro, Alcantara or Baez playing a little CF or LF sooner rather than later. Or seeing Olt playing LF..
3. The reality is some of these guys are leaving. And the answer might be sooner rather then later. Maybe this is the offseason you make a run at David Price. Package baez and Alcantara together or maybe Baez and Olt? Who knows but the reality is you need to sell high on some of these guys and quite frankly there is no room for them to all play together. I will be most sad if baez is never a cub but i think he is the most likely to go since he is not a Theo pick. I really really love the kid and hope i am wrong. The facts are though that the Cubs are locked into two position players for the forseeable future. Everyone else is about acquiring assets. Cubs have lotta movable pieces and it is imperative that they cash some in. Have 6 top 100 hitting prospects now according to probably everyone but Keith Law (he is down on olt) and that isnt even counting the guys who are doing it at lower levels like Candelario, Vogelbach, Dunston, Amaya, Beleaguert and a few other intriguing names. (I am not even going to name the most recent bonus babies since we might not see them till a new president is in office)
4. I dont think the pitching is in as bad of shape as everyone else here meakes it out to be. Pierce johnson is pretty solid. CJ Edwards looks solid. Vizcaino will pitch again one day. Have a crap ton of bullpen arms. Paul Blackburn has been very impressive. The guys who we drafted out of college this year Skulina, Masek, Wilson, Frazier, Zssstyatstds. Some arms there that are intriguing.
5. It is important to look at how far this system has come: Just two years ago before Garza trade obviously according to BA
1. Chris Archer, rhp
2. Brett Jackson, of
3. Trey McNutt, rhp
4. Hak-Ju Lee, ss
5. Josh Vitters, 3b
6. Chris Carpenter, rhp
7. Matt Szczur, of
8. Hayden Simpson, rhp
9. Rafael Dolis, rhp
10. Brandon Guyer, of
That list includes a guy who strikes out at absurd levels, a third baseman who hits for not much power and doesnt get on base, an overdrafted pitcher and two bullpen guys. Now their are impact players.
Quite well done by Theo/Hoyer/Mcleod
4. Will miss Soriano. Always tried hard.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
If Pierce Johnson is your top rated starting pitching prospect, you’ve got issues, bubs. None of the guys you mentioned are frontline starting pitchers. The starting pitching in this system is really bad, but the offensive prospects more than makes up for it and then some.
As you pointed out, they can use some of these players to acquire MLB star pitchers and my guess is that’s what they do.
Maybe Blackburn develops over the next 5 years, but that’s a long ass time. Maybe, just maybe Vizcaino can succeed as a starting pitcher though I won’t be surprised if the Cubs already consider him a relief pitcher due to the high number of injuries. It might be best for him anyway.
dmick89Quote Reply
The fact the Cubs system is as good as it right now without much starting pitching at all tells us just how damn good they are on the positional side.
dmick89Quote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
Aren’t those all players that Jim Hendry brought in?
EdwinQuote Reply
New Shit
MylesQuote Reply
nm
RynoQuote Reply
@ Edwin:
Yes they are. Hendry doesnt get enough credit here for turnaround.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ cubsin:
reports plural? as in you’ve seen someone other than Phil Rogers report it? because I’d like to read those, as I think Phil was carrying the water for the org.
GWQuote Reply