Recently, we’ve talked in the comments a little about how much harder it is going to be to get anybody into the Hall of Fame in future ballots because the BBWAA has clogged it up with very legitimate candidates. I’ve seen expectations here and elsewhere that Maddux will get in for sure next year. Normally, I’d agree that he, at the very least, should have no problems at all. Normally. But these are not normal times on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.
Maddux should absolutely be good enough to be a “first-ballot” Hall of Famer. 355 wins, 3,371 strikeouts, 4 Cy Young Awards, about a billion Gold Gloves, and absolutely no suspicion of PEDs use (that I am aware of). If that can’t get you in on a first ballot, I don’t know what would.
I think that is a very reasonable conclusion to draw based on what we’ve seen on how voting has tended to go in the past ballots. But here is the problem that nobody seems to be dealing with or wrapping their heads around. Where are these votes coming from?
I went back to the 2000 Hall of Fame balloting to see if we can determine how many votes we can expect to be cast overall:
| Year | Ballots | Votes | Avg. Votes/Ballot |
| 2013 | 569 | 3756 | 6.60 |
| 2012 | 573 | 2921 | 5.10 |
| 2011 | 581 | 3474 | 5.98 |
| 2010 | 539 | 3057 | 5.67 |
| 2009 | 539 | 2902 | 5.38 |
| 2008 | 543 | 2907 | 5.35 |
| 2007 | 545 | 3584 | 6.58 |
| 2006 | 520 | 2933 | 5.64 |
| 2005 | 516 | 3263 | 6.32 |
| 2004 | 506 | 3314 | 6.55 |
| 2003 | 496 | 3272 | 6.60 |
| 2002 | 472 | 2810 | 5.95 |
| 2001 | 515 | 3258 | 6.33 |
| 2000 | 499 | 2813 | 5.64 |
Over this time, there was a mean average of 5.97 votes cast per ballot and a median average of 5.965, so I’m perfectly willing to just call it 6 per ballot. I’ll also further concede that the BBWAA may actually realize that there is a glut and attempt to vote for more players than they normally would and I’ll say next year they’ll average 7 votes per ballot, breaking the record high average for this time period by a relatively huge margin.
Assuming there are 569 ballots cast again next year (seems as good a guess as any), that means there will be 3,983 votes to spread among the 18 returning candidates plus Maddux, Tom Glavine, Jeff Kent, Mike Mussina, Frank Thomas, and many others we won’t even consider for this exercise but this year actually accounted for 70 votes, or almost the equivalent of Sammy Sosa‘s vote total.
If we reduce every returning candidate’s support by 10% we get 3,221 votes cast for those 18 returners and only 762 votes left to split amongst Maddux, Glavine, Kent, Mussina, and Thomas. If we assume Maddux is a “no-brainer,” he has to get at least 427 of those votes to get in, leaving only 335 to split up among the other four. That doesn’t seem likely.
If we reduce every returning candidate’s support by 15% we get 3042 votes cast and still only 941 to split up among the newbies. Maddux gets his 427 and the others split 514 between them.
Maybe these scenarios don’t seem unlikely to you, but if we compare how many votes similar players got this year we can see the numbers aren’t adding up. I’d put Glavine and Thomas in the “eventual, but not first-ballot Hall of Famer” category, so you’d think their support would be near Biggio’s vote total of 388 this year. I think Jeff Kent is one of the best hitting second basemen ever (if not the absolute best, I haven’t looked it up), so I’m comparing his first attempt to Piazza’s 329 votes this year as the best hitting catcher ever. I’m comparing Mussina with Schilling since he was damn good, but when put amid names like Clemens, Maddux, and Glavine, you probably don’t fully realize how good. Schilling got 221 votes this year.
So in theory, those five guys could realistically expect ~1300+ votes between them. Even by degrading everyone by 15% we still have a 500 vote gap. There aren’t enough votes to go around. We’d have to wipe the lowest supported candidates, Larry Walker (123), Fred McGriff (118), Mark McGwire (96), Don Mattingly (75), Sammy Sosa (71), and Rafael Palmeiro (50) completely off the ballot to come up with the missing votes. While it may come to the point where they don’t survive to see the next ballot, they’re not ALL going to get shut out.
The only realistic scenario is that the vote totals are just going to get thinned out all across the board and I don’t know if we can even consider Maddux a lock in this atmosphere.
If that happens, then make way for Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, and Gary Sheffield to thin those numbers out even more.
Maybe the BBWAA will drastically step up the number of votes they cast per ballot, but as we saw in the OV balloting, even averaging almost 8.5 votes per ballot resulted in a vote this year that was so spread out we only elected three candidates and didn’t have Kenny Lofton and Bernie Williams fall off the ballot.
It’s crazy, but if I had to bet money on a result for next season, I’d probably put Maddux’s shot at induction at no better than 50%.
Comments
If you click on the HOF voting results here you’ll see that the years you have above with high averages have pretty impressive first ballot candidates with at least one first-ballot guy:
2007–Ripken, Gwynn, McGwire;
2005 Boggs;
2004–Molitor, Eckersley;
2003–Sandberg, Eddie Murray, Lee Smith;
2001–Winfield, Puckett, Mattingly
Contrast to
2008–Raines (Gossage elected on 9th try)
2009–Henderson (no others made 5% cut)
Without doing any fancy stats, that pattern I see is that the votes go up to support the great guys. I think you can add 2% to the average votes/ballot next year.
SVBQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
hmmm……
/emails someone to set up a Q&A session about Rant Sports
GWQuote Reply
Really enjoyed this post.
I’ll gladly take that bet, though.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Me too. But 424 probably already called his chapter 11 advisor.
SVBQuote Reply
This is off topic, but I was hoping SK would tell us about the 1963 Orange Bowl, where Lee Roy Jordan made 31 tackles for Alabama against Oklahoma. OK only ran 60 playsand didn’t score. That’s a helluva game.
SVBQuote Reply
Is it possible to get the number of comments for the “Asides” to show up on the main page? I think there may be more conversation if people knew there was a discussion going on.
WaLiQuote Reply
Based on what the Mariners were going to give the Diamondbacks, if that is the market for Upton I want no part. It would seem we would have to part with something like Vizcaino, Soler ++
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Upton’s splits scare the hell out of me. The more I look at that deal, the less I love it.
MylesQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
I agree. I think we are better off keeping what we have.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Agree. Not to mention the on again off again shit that he does. I think he is probably a great player. But he is getting expensive and is a little inconsistent. Also I am a little worried when a team puts a player like that on the block. Why would they want to move him? But then again after they gave up Bauer for jack shit who knows what is going on there.
@ WaLi:
Yea I just think it is a two steps forward three steps back type of thing. Granted Soler and Vizcaino might never be anything, but if they are we get 12 years out of them. Not to mention we would have to sweeten the deal for Justin
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Happy Friday fuckfaces!
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Bairz====>> CFL coach??? FACEPALM
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
In order for Maddux (or anyone) to get in, the votes will have to come from somewhere and that will mean at least a couple of these guys will fall off the ballot completely, which is equally ridiculous. Jim Rice is in the Hall and Sammy Sosa might not see his 3rd ballot? That’s fucking insane.
Aisle424Quote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
He has good NFL creds. He’s been in my top 3 of the people they’ve interviewed. They were never going to hire a Cowher or Holmgren.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Maddux gets in I think at a 90% clip. He was always good with the media. No suspicion of roids. And was “crafty”
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I like him for OC… But for HC???
I prefer Mccoy to be honest. Or Clements
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
I don’t think he gets 90%. I think a certain percentage of people who would vote for him will figure he’ll get enough votes without theirs and try to keep a few guys who aren’t as assured of staying on the ballot. There’s going to be gamesmanship going on with the few BBWAA writers who realize what will happen if they all just vote for Maddux.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
It is going to be an interesting test case for sure. I am intrigued what happens with Glavine. I do not think they both get in next year which is stupid.
And as amazing as both were neither should get in till Bonds and Clemens get in
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
Those 2 are also good candidates and I don’t know who is best. To a degree, they’re all unknown quantities as a head coach. At least Trestman was a head coach in a different pro league. The rules are different, but he has NFL experience so I’m not concerned he doesn’t understand the NFL game.
I didn’t have a clear favorite individual so I can’t argue any more in favor of him over the others, but I can only say I’m not unhappy with this choice. As someone who didn’t necessarily think they would hire someone who could be better than Lovie, I’m pleased.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I thought it was time for Lovie to go. In bubbs opinion 5/6 years missing the playoffs is unacceptable. And a dreadful offense forever.
Such a terrible year.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
really interesting post. after reading this, i think it is very likely that sosa and mcqwire get dropped next year and at least feasible that bonds and clemens get dropped the following year.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
This is where I think the biggest problem is. I believe Maddux gets in and I’ll even be more optimistic than Bubbles, which is hard to do. i think Maddux gets 95%+, but there is no denying it’s more difficult to get in and there are easily ways in which he couldn’t. That problem seemed impossible a few years ago.
However, people seem to be sure that Biggio gets in next year, but with the ballot only getting stronger, I’m going to bet that he doesn’t. It becomes harder for Schilling. Glavine and Johnson probably get in, but it will be very tough for Smoltz. I’m talking future years here obviously. Pedro? Probably not right away even though no pitcher in baseball history had a peak as impressive as his.
If Sosa doesn’t drop off next year, he will the following year.
I guess all I can really do is stop caring. This isn’t a Hall of Fame that includes the players I’ve loved watching over the last 25 years. That much is clear. No Bonds, Sosa, Clemens, Piazza, Schilling, etc. It’s a fucking joke.
Before long not being in the HOF will be more of an honor than getting in the fucking place.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Yeah, really good job here, 424.
I don’t think we’ll see Bonds and Clemens get dropped anytime soon. I think they’re two candidates we can be pretty sure are going to see a decent increase in percentage next year, but that in itself makes it more difficult for guys like Biggio, Piazza, Raines and other deserving candidates.
I think baseball is at the point where they have to switch to something similar to what the NFL Hall of Fame does. I believe they have to elect 4 each year and no more than 7. The baseball hall of fame has always been smaller so maybe they go elect 3 and no more than 5.
There should never be a year in which nobody is elected. For that matter, there should never be a year in which less than 3 living people aren’t honored in Cooperstown.
dmick89Quote Reply
Maddux will get in on the first ballot, unless he becomes implicated with steroid use within the next 11.5 months.
This coming ballot is completely unprecedented in modern times, so we can pretty much throw out the votes per voter numbers, but Maddox probably gets in even if the voters are stingy with increasing their vote counts. The reason is simple: an over-stuffed ballot hurts ultra-strong candidates much less than the lower candidates. Put simply, no voter is honestly going to say, “Sorry Greg, I love you, but there are simply too many better choices on the ballot”. A few might try to save a vote by relying on everyone else to vote him in, but I expect few to risk that.
The only remotely sane people who won’t vote for Maddux next year are the hardline “If DiMaggio wasn’t…” no-first-ballots-voters. This is in stark contrast to Biggio. He’s not an upper-echelon candidate to many voters who require that of first-timers, and some small-hall voters would never vote for him.
Matt SQuote Reply
Regarding Justin Upton, he’d be the best player on this team and would give the Cubs the potential of a ridiculous middle of the order if Rizzo pans out and Baez does too. A 3-4-5 with those guys would be crazy good and very young.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
They’re still honoring the important people – I’m pretty sure there’s still inductions in the writing/broadcaster wings. Nothing gets butts in the seats like the Spink award.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I dont think sosa falls off ever to be honest.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
This whole HoF fiasco confuses me. No other sport in the history of the world is obsessed with “stats” and “numbers” like baseball is yet those same stats and numbers are worthless during the HoF election process? Something isn’t stirring the kool-aid.
MuckerQuote Reply
So does AC still work at the corporate OV headquarters? Or was he banished to the satellite campus to do research for all the new posts? (dying laughing)
JonKneeVQuote Reply
What happened to M.O.? I haven’t seen him in awhile. He always had good points about the Bears.
MuckerQuote Reply
Matt S wrote:
I don’t think you can completely throw it out. This year was pretty unique too. I’ve never had to limit myself to “only 10” votes when considering who I would’ve voted for before this ballot. Yet, nevertheless you had guys like Sullivan voting for Lee Smith and like 2 other guys and that’s it. You mean to tell me that the people who only voted for 1, 2, 3 or 4 guys are suddenly going to see the error of their ways?
The top number of votes can only be 10, so you can’t raise the average by having voters who voted for 10 this year voting for 12 next year to accomodate Maddux and the newcomers. I think I’m being generous by conceding the average votes per ballot rises to 7 from an average of 6 in the 2000s. I also am completely disregarding the votes people will throw to the Aaron Seles of the world. People who won’t appear on the next ballot got 70 votes last year. That might as well have been 70 votes that weren’t cast. For my exercise, I pretended like they didn’t exist and it still makes it really difficult to get Maddux in with a commanding vote count.
I think there are voters out there who will say, “Well, Maddux will get in no matter if I vote for him or not, so I’m going to give my votes to these guys who I fear will fall off the ballot without more support.” I’ve seen a couple people on Twitter discuss that sort of gamesmanship.
If I had to vote right now (without gamesmanship), here’s my ballot:
Maddux
Bonds
Clemens
Piazza
Thomas
Glavine
Raines
Bagwell
Biggio
Sosa
Sorry, Trammel, Schilling and Palmeiro. I already ignored Edgar and McGwire on this year’s ballot. I have to leave off 5 incredibly qualified candidates. Other voters, will just leave off the steroid guys as their punishment, so now we’re already seeing the vote get spread out. Jack Morris’ supporters aren’t all going to bail on him because next year is his last year, they’ll remove someone qualified to squeeze him on.
I think it is unthinkable that Maddux could possibly get squeezed in some people’s minds, but the scenario is ripe for it. I’ll be very surprised if he gets more than 85% of the vote. I’m guessing he ends up in the 73-83% range, so I may have overstated the 50/50 chance he gets in or not, but I think the chances are very, very real.
Aisle424Quote Reply
excellent
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
JonKneeV wrote:
Mucker wrote:
They have gone off together on a quest to find Ryno.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Wait, I thought Upton had the Cubs on his no-trade list. Why waste time discussing him if he doesn’t want to play in Chicago? Then again, I’m perfectly happy discussing the Cubs, so that’s not a very valid question…
26.2cubfanQuote Reply
26.2cubfan wrote:
There’s a feeling that Upton would allow a trade to the Cubs if the Cubs offer an extension that he likes.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Is this also one of the computers that played the chess masters? I would have loved to see the computer beat the pants off a chess master and then bust out some Urban Dictionary taunts.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
You’re right. There are too many small hall proponents who are members of the BBWAA and they will, under any circumstance, keep their ballots to 2, 3 and maybe 4 votes. There will be a few who turn in blank ballots. I think Tango found that 25% voted for 10. That’s probably the limit. I doubt we’ll see much more than than vote for 10 next year or any year.
I do think we’ll see a slight uptick, but probably to about the 7 you used in your post. It won’t be anywhere near 10. It will closer to the average of the years you covered than it will be to even 9 votes per ballot.
Yes, I think Maddux gets in. I believe Glavine and Johnson will too over the next couple years. I don’t believe Biggio will. Nor will Piazza, Bagwell and many other deserving candidates. Ken Griffey probably has the best chance among position players who are currently on the ballot or will be eligible within the next 3 years.
Jeff Kent seems to be an afterthought and he was one of the best 2nd basemen ever. I wouldn’t even be surprised if he’s not on a 2nd ballot and that’s ridiculous.
dmick89Quote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
I forgot about Jeff Kent and Mussina. Two more guys who probably should get in and I snubbed them from my list of guys who got snubbed.
Aisle424Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
This is what it has come down to. This process is giving traveshamockeries a bad name.
Aisle424Quote Reply
2-3 years ago I’d have loved to visit baseball’s Hall of Fame. I can’t see myself going at this point. For one thing, Cooperstown is out of the way so I’ll never find myself near it and just figure what the fuck, why not go? I’d have to plan to go there and that won’t happen.
The Hall of Fame is really of no interest to me as far as visiting the place. If it’s not going to include the best players I’ve seen, why the fuck do I care to go there and see a bunch of shit from dead people I never saw play?
I’d much rather drive 70 miles and visit the Negro League Baseball Museum. Speaking of that, Buck O’Neil isn’t even in the fucking Hall of Fame.
dmick89Quote Reply
The other reason I don’t think there will be a tremendous rush to use all 10 votes by a lot of the Small Hall guys is that they don’t think there is a problem. This is working out perfectly for them.
We all assumed to keep alleged steroid users out of the Hall, they’d have to be beaten down for 15 years on the ballots. But the way it’s going, it’s possible Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, and Jeff Bagwell will have to join Pete Rose down the street in his alternate Hall after less than 5 years.
the only hope is that Bonds and Clemens break in because they were TOO good to keep out and then the line gets muddy and it becomes easier to vote for the other alleged/suspected PEDs users. “Hell, Bonds is in and I actually LIKE Bagwell, so I’ll vote for him too.”
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
That article by Jonah Keri that you linked yesterday pointed out the HOF had lost money 8 of the last 10 years and more than $2 million in 2011. They probably lost in 2012 and will definitely lose as much as 2011 this coming year.
How long will they let that go on?
While we’re keeping qualified players out of the Hall of Fame, I think we need to go back through our history books and remove the parts about slavery, the slaughter of Native Americans, the internment of Japanese and all the other negative shit that makes us look bad. Let’s only keep track of the positive stuff.
for fuck’s sake, we honor motherfucking presidents who owned slaves. Jefferson fathered children with a slave, which today (boss, underling) would be considered sexual assault. We celebrate presidents who tried to wipe out the entire Native American population.
History ain’t always pretty, but it is history and it does nobody any good whatsoever to remove the bad parts of it. We wouldn’t learn a fucking thing if we did that.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ 26.2cubfan:
As was mentioned by GW, it seems the teams on his no-trade list are created annually and based on which teams are most likely to trade for him. This would give Upton leverage (contract extension in order to approve trade). If the Cubs believe for good reason he’d never accept a trade to them then they should move on, but I don’t think that’s the case.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Yes, but they didn’t break any homerun records. Get some perspective, man.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I don’t know why people keep talking about the many victims of Jimmy Savile. It reflects poorly on the BBC and the UK. They should ignore it and focus only on the positive things he did.
/BBWAA
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
We honor Christopher motherfucking Columbus who didn’t discover America and was a piece of fucking shit.
dmick89Quote Reply
BtBS just got featured on MLBTR and posted this:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/1/10/3857368/2013-baseball-hall-of-fame-vote-how-much-do-bbwaas-secret-ballots
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I just had a discussion with a client about baseball and the HoF and he was adamant that these guys shouldn’t get in. I have a hard time understanding why so many people care that athletes cheat. I don’t know any of those guys so I could care less that they cheat. Even if I knew them I wouldn’t give a shit. I don’t watch sports for morals, integrity and honor. I watch them to be entertained. And baseball was more fun when guys were blasting 60 bombs a year, or when Bonds was literally incapable of making an out, or when Sosa hit those bombs in the HR Derby in Milwaukee. Baseball has a history of cheaters and to punish the most recent ones is pretty fucking stupid and careless.
MuckerQuote Reply
didn’t wade boggs (and others) just buy the filed of dreams land? i think i read that they’re putting like 50-ish smaller ballparks there as well as a bunch of practice facilities. no clue what this will realistically be used for but it would be better if clemens and bonds et al just threw boggs a bunch of cash and they built their own HOF on this site. they could have a bunch of practice fields and like a whole baseball theme park. i’d go to that.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
My Dad is the same way, which is odd since he’s not even a baseball fan. The last thing I need to hear is what the Hall of Fame should do from someone who isn’t even a fan. It’s like my Dad thinks players from when he was younger were clean and played by the rules.
Love my Dad, but disagree very much about this.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVhTDNlbsSc
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Good article. I liked this page too: http://www.hallofstats.com/articles/interactive-2013-hall-of-fame-ballot
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
It looks like Sosa is just a bit shy of both medians depicted on that chart.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
nice link. am i the only one surprised to see schilling at #3?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I was surprised. I knew he’d be pretty high, but I didn’t think that high.
dmick89Quote Reply
aside: http://obstructedview.net/major-league-baseball/jeff-idelson-president-of-the-baseball-hall-of-fame-full-of-shit.html
dmick89Quote Reply
another aside: http://obstructedview.net/major-league-baseball/hall-of-stats.html
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I believe that the casual and non fans are the broadest supporters in keeping “those cheaters” out of the Hall of Fame. I believe this is often because they care more about not rewarding people they dislike than honoring baseball history. I can sort of understand that, even though it’s the exact opposite of my own priorities.
I still believe that the average number of votes per ballot will go up substantially next year, probably to 7.5-8. There will be fewer blank protest ballots, and lots of anti-“cheater” voters will happily have room to add both Maddux and Glavine. Even still, Raines is in trouble, and Trammel has no prayer. Sad.
It will be interesting to see if Biggio makes the cut. If I were a voter, I’d probably vote for him in an attempt to clear the log-jam, but I’m not sure if he’s really in my top 10 from this ballot.
Matt SQuote Reply
@ Matt S:
I think casual and non fans are following the lead of their national sports columnists and local beat writers. They don’t know enough to have their own opinion, so they see the guy in the newspaper with his picture next to a sports column and run with that.
In this case, I think the tail is wagging the dog.
Also, in this case, the writers who seem most adamant about punishing the cheaters are the ones who were most duped by the power numbers they drooled over when they were happening. They were taken in and they have to at least feign anger and resentment to make the players the villains so that nobody wonders why an entire industry of baseball writers saw homeruns going through the roof and believed that either nothing was wrong or that the ball was juiced and left it at that.
Aisle424Quote Reply
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/milton-bradley-charged-la-domestic-abuse
I hope he goes to jail. I was for the signing when it went down FWIW
Also: WOnder if we can low all the dbacks?
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
There’s no doubt in my that a lot of sports writers feel very guilty about how much FUN they had during the steroid era. McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds lead them into temptation and are deeply resented for that.
Matt SQuote Reply
new shit:
http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/rethinking-pitching-philosophies-derek-johnson-and-carlos-gomez.html
GWQuote Reply