Grades so far: Outfield

In News And Rumors by dmick89176 Comments

byrd-soriano-fukudomeI haven’t gotten to this one as quickly as I’d hoped, but here it is. You can read about the article I wrote about the infield if you haven’t already.

Alfonso Soriano – It hasn’t been pretty, but Soriano has been a productive hitter to this point in the season. He has a .359 wOBA thanks to his 11 home runs and career best .278 ISO. Despite that, his OBP sits at .292 thanks to a career worst BB% (3.6%). He’s also struckout more than any other season in his career. His K% is 28.6% compared to a 22.3% career rate. As Soriano’s HR/FB rate comes back to earth, Soriano’s wOBA will too. Soriano can still crush left-handed pitching. He’s hit .438 wOBA vs them this season. He’s also only a league average hitter vs righties (.333 so far this year). Since 2008 he’s hit between .328 and .333 vs righties. His BB% vs righties this year is under 2%. I’m not joking.

Soriano has also managed to post the worst fielding percentage of his career. This includes his years at 2nd base. Fielding percentage isn’t a very good metric, but I don’t even know how a left fielder has a .953 fielding percentage. As a result, he has the lowest UZR/150 of his career with the exeption of 2005 when he was at 2nd base with the Rangers.

Marlon Byrd – Despite a rough batting line through 19 or 20 games of the season, Byrd has hit batting line up to .312/.342/.390 (.325 wOBA). Byrd’s BB% has declined to 3.1% this season, which keeps his OBP rather mediocre despite a .312 batting average. The biggest problem so far for Byrd is that only 23.6% of the balls he puts in play have been fly balls (32.1% career). On top of that, only 3.3% of those have left the yard compared to 8.2% in his career. His FB rate will probably increase a bit and his HR/FB rate should also increase somewhat. The BB% is a concern. Byrd has never had much plate discipline, but 3.1% is just awful. Byrd also has a .373 BABIP which will also decline. In the end, expect him to hit about the same as he’s hit the last few seasons. UZR has Byrd at -1.6 while DRS has him at -1 and Total Zone at 3. He’s always been a league average fielder and that’s what he’s been so far this year.

Kosuke Fukudome – I published a few charts earlier in the week about Fukudome and how his average and OBP were pretty much the same as it was his previous 3 seasons through 26 games. Where it differs is that Fukudome has hit for almost no power at all this season. He only has 4 extra base hits on the season and his ISO is ridiculously low at .044. He has posted a career high BB% (16.4%) and thanks to an absurdly high .431 BABIP he’s posted a .387 wOBA. Fukudome is also hitting far fewer balls in the air and none have been hit out yet. Expect more fly balls and an increase to his HR/FB rate. That should help offset the inevitable BABIP regression.

Reed Johnson – In less than half the plate apeparances as Fukudome, Reed Johnson has more extra base hits. He has 4 doubles, a triple and a home run. He’s been extremely lucky on balls in play (.452 BABIP), but he does have nearly a 26% line drive rate. Both numbers are going to come down considerably and when they do, the .456 wOBA will as well.

Tyler Colvin – Colvin has lost playing time to Reed Johnson because Johnson has hit very well in part due to luck while Colvin has hit terribly. The poor hitting from Colvin is also luck. His BABIP is .116. Only 68 plate appearances so far, he’s increased his BB% to 8.8% and slightly decreased his K% to 27.4%. A lot has been made about Colvin’s approach at the plate, but it’s important to point out that the league average BB% is 7.8%. Colvin has walked more frequently than the league average hitter so far. He walked 7.6% of the time last year so a slight improvement would be expected at his age.

If we adjust Colvin’s line to his ZiPS projected .286 BABIP, it changes Colvin’s batting line from .113/.191/.258 to a more respectable .231/.311/.391. That would be a .304 wOBA. Obviously not good, but significantly better than the ugly .199 wOBA he currently has. I’d like to see Colvin get some more playing time. He probably ends up getting sent to Iowa, but I think the increase in BB% is a good sign. He’s never going to be a great player, but he’s better than he’s played so far by quite a lot.

We’re trying out this new poll module so vote for whatever you think even if you don’t think it should happen.

{loadposition brettjacksonpoll}


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  1. Xoomwaffle

    CarrieMuskat Carrie Muskat
    #Cubs lineup for blustery Sun: RF Fuke, 2B Barney, SS Castro, 3B Ramy, LF DeWitt, CF Johnson, 1B Pena, C Hill, P Zambrano

    CarrieMuskat Carrie Muskat
    This will be DeWitt’s 1st ML start in OF. #Cubs

    Did Colvin screw Baldy McHustle’s wife?

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  2. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Xoomwaffle]CarrieMuskat Carrie Muskat
    #Cubs lineup for blustery Sun: RF Fuke, 2B Barney, SS Castro, 3B Ramy, LF DeWitt, CF Johnson, 1B Pena, C Hill, P Zambrano

    CarrieMuskat Carrie Muskat
    This will be DeWitt’s 1st ML start in OF. #Cubs

    Did Colvin screw Baldy McHustle’s wife?[/quote]
    That is a bit of a surprise. A couple games ago, DeWitt and Colvin came in as successive pinch-hitters, but DeWitt stayed in at LF and Colvin was done. I guess DeWitt theoretically fucks up less in the OF than at 3B.

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  3. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]Cubs game ——-> postponed[/quote]Series split with the world champions! Go Cubs Go

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  4. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]Series split with the world champions! Go Cubs Go[/quote]
    Hey Chicago whaddya say, the Cubs aren’t gonna lose today

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  5. Rice Cube

    [quote name=melissa]Unless Colvin is hurt there is no reason to play DeWitt in left. None.[/quote]
    Mike Quade has the microphone, so you will listen to every damn word he has to say.

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  6. melissa

    MB, you need to add Blake DeWitt’s name to the list of outfielders that Brett Jackson should replace. Why call up Jackson when you have Kosuke, Marlon, Sori, Reed, DeWitt, Baker, Colvin? Carry 8 outfielders, Let’s See What Happens.

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  7. FullyKraeusened

    DeWitt has more plate appearances against Lincecum than anybody else on the Cubs roster and a slash line of .400/.438/.467. it is a small sample size, yadda, yadda yadda…but this seems to be why Quade did it.

    Not that it matters anymore for today.

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  8. Rice Cube

    [quote name=melissa]DeWitt could play at 2nd or 3rd, no reason to put him in left.[/quote]
    I think the problem is that they also have to keep Castro, Barney and Ramirez in the lineup. So obviously you take out the only power threat you have in the lineup and put DeWitt there instead.

    Le shrug.

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  9. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=melissa]Unless Colvin is hurt there is no reason to play DeWitt in left. None.[/quote][quote name=FullyKraeusened]DeWitt has more plate appearances against Lincecum than anybody else on the Cubs roster and a slash line of .400/.438/.467. it is a small sample size, yadda, yadda yadda…but this seems to be why Quade did it.

    Not that it matters anymore for today.[/quote]I know this will piss off AC, but after Quade’s asinine and factually incorrect blather about Doug Davis and his lineups yesterday, and this idiocy today, I have zero confidence in Mike Quade. I’ll be shocked if he manages to manage the Cubs for more than one full season. He sounds and acts like a man who is wholly out of his depth.

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  10. Berselius

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I know this will piss off AC, but long before Quade’s asinine and factually incorrect blather about Doug Davis and his lineups yesterday, and this idiocy today, I have zero confidence in Mike Quade. I’ll be shocked if he manages to manage the Cubs for more than one full season. He sounds and acts like a man who is wholly out of his depth.[/quote]
    to be fair

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  11. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=Berselius]to be fair[/quote](dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) Granted I never had much confidence. Mainly because I have a general distrust of the Big Talker types. But these past two days have sealed it for me.

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  12. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=dylanj]http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/5/15/2172172/is-it-too-late-for-sub-500-teams-to-make-the-playoffs

    paging ryno[/quote]I know many people say one does not just walk into Mordor, but I know these two hobbits who totally did it, so yeah, it’s totally possible to walk into Mordor.

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  13. Berselius

    Yuniesky Betancourt on critics of his defense

    “I don’t know English, so it doesn’t matter what they say in the papers

    (dying laughing)

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  14. mb21

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I know this will piss off AC, but after Quade’s asinine and factually incorrect blather about Doug Davis and his lineups yesterday, and this idiocy today, I have zero confidence in Mike Quade. I’ll be shocked if he manages to manage the Cubs for more than one full season. He sounds and acts like a man who is wholly out of his depth.[/quote]I think you’re looking way too much into what Quade said yesterday, but Quade is absolutely right. He’s not right in that it matters a whole lot, but he dominated the A’s from 2000-2002. I don’t mean he pitched well. We’re talking allowing a .450 to .590 OPS in 2001, 2002, 2007, 2008, and 2009. Davis didn’t pitch well against the Cubs last year, but I don’t know anybody who wouldn’t say that Doug Davis hasn’t owned the Cubs in his career. He also owned the A’s in 2001 and 2002 when Quade was the 3rd base coach. In 2000 Davis only made 3 appearances vs the A’s (only one start) and they crushed him in that start. But seriously, any person is going to remember 2001, 2002, 2007, 2008, and 2009 over the bad starts he’s made.

    I don’t remember exactly what Quade said, but I do know that Doug Davis has seemingly shut the Cubs down every single time he’s stepped on the mound. I know that is not true, but it seems like it because he has so dominated them.

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  15. mb21

    [quote name=dylanj]http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/5/15/2172172/is-it-too-late-for-sub-500-teams-to-make-the-playoffs

    paging ryno[/quote]Neyer was once researching and writing books with Bill James. Now he’s writing on a blog that Alvin Yellon writes on. Was there any other way that Neyer could have become as irrelevant as he is now?

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  16. mb21

    I do agree with MO in that I’m going to be shocked if he manages the Cubs for more than one season. Not just one full season, but one season total. In other words, I’m going to be shocked if he’s not fired before next year’s Opening Day.

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  17. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]Neyer was once researching and writing books with Bill James. Now he’s writing on a blog that Alvin Yellon writes on. Was there any other way that Neyer could have become as irrelevant as he is now?[/quote]
    Neyer was also writing for the same company that employed Joe Morgan and Jon Kruk.

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  18. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]Neyer was also writing for the same company that employed Joe Morgan and Jon Kruk.[/quote]At least he was relevant. Not to mention, Morgan is arguably the greatest 2nd baseman in the history of baseball and John Kruk was pretty good for awhile too. We’re talking Alvin fucking Yellon here. I’d rather work with Joe Morgan than 99.9999% of the people on the planet. At least I could talk to him about something I really enjoy. I may not agree with a lot of what he said, but I’m also 100% certain I’d learn more about baseball in 3 weeks with him than I have in the last 10 years.

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  19. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]I think you’re looking way too much into what Quade said yesterday, but Quade is absolutely right. He’s not right in that it matters a whole lot, but he dominated the A’s from 2000-2002. I don’t mean he pitched well. We’re talking allowing a .450 to .590 OPS in 2001, 2002, 2007, 2008, and 2009. Davis didn’t pitch well against the Cubs last year, but I don’t know anybody who wouldn’t say that Doug Davis hasn’t owned the Cubs in his career. He also owned the A’s in 2001 and 2002 when Quade was the 3rd base coach. In 2000 Davis only made 3 appearances vs the A’s (only one start) and they crushed him in that start. But seriously, any person is going to remember 2001, 2002, 2007, 2008, and 2009 over the bad starts he’s made.

    I don’t remember exactly what Quade said, but I do know that Doug Davis has seemingly shut the Cubs down every single time he’s stepped on the mound. I know that is not true, but it seems like it because he has so dominated them.[/quote]Well, for one, it just isn’t true. It’s all an admixture of selection bias and confirmation bias. And, as you point out, it’s meaningless. But it’s indicative of what Quade thinks matters, which, unfortunately, seems to be things that don’t actually matter. (dying laughing)

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  20. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]I do agree with MO in that I’m going to be shocked if he manages the Cubs for more than one season. Not just one full season, but one season total. In other words, I’m going to be shocked if he’s not fired before next year’s Opening Day.[/quote]I think he’ll finish this season, for much the same reason that Koyie Hill is safe from being mercifully DFA’d: Hendry loves them. But I think after a 90-loss 2011 (which is quite possible), Ricketts will need a scapegoat and Jimbo will be it. Tommy Boy will clean house, and Hendry and his guys will be gone. Quade, Fleita, Hill, Riggins, etc. All gone.

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  21. mb21

    Isn’t true in what sense, MO? Doug Davis has been a really good pitcher throughout his career. He hasn’t been much worse than Carlos Zambrano. To me it’s pretty simple, if Doug Davis is healthy and as good as he’s capable of being, he’s a better starting pitcher than Andrew Cashner. The only reason Cashner would move to the bullpen is if Davis is as good as they think he can still be. If so, it’s an easy decision. There’s other ways to get rid of starting pitchers, but an inferior pitcher doesn’t replace a superior pitcher. You may trade the superior pitcher to make room, but you certainly aren’t going to just release them.

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  22. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]Isn’t true in what sense, MO? Doug Davis has been a really good pitcher throughout his career. He hasn’t been much worse than Carlos Zambrano. To me it’s pretty simple, if Doug Davis is healthy and as good as he’s capable of being, he’s a better starting pitcher than Andrew Cashner. The only reason Cashner would move to the bullpen is if Davis is as good as they think he can still be. If so, it’s an easy decision. There’s other ways to get rid of starting pitchers, but an inferior pitcher doesn’t replace a superior pitcher. You may trade the superior pitcher to make room, but you certainly aren’t going to just release them.[/quote]
    It’s not true that he’s always made it bad for those teams. Sure he’s had sustained success against them, but like you say, there’s been rough starts in there, too, and it’s Quade’s fucking job to not fall prey to selction and confirmation biases. Quade’s making it sound like Doug Davis is some kind of underrated star, instead of a poorly-manicured has-been lumping 79 MPH fastballs up there.

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  23. mb21

    Cashner shouldn’t have been moved into the bullpen last season. That was retarded and we talked about it endlessly. But he’s almost 25 years old, not stretched out enough to be a starting pitcher, probably not capable of giving you deep starts each time out (he couldn’t even do it in the minor leagues) and he’s coming off a shoulder injury. A shoulder injury that occurred once he was stretched out so he could pitch 5-6 innings. It would be nice if the Cubs could use him as a starter, but I’m much less convinced he can do it than I was a year ago. He was horrible in the bullpen too.

    I guess I don’t really care what they do with Andrew Cashner. He’s not going to be the difference between being good and being average anytime in the near future. The difference making potential was never really there and that’s why so many scouts saw him as a reliever.

    I’d like to see him start, but I’d like to see it at AAA. If the Cubs instead choose to put him in the big league bullpen I’m OK with that. Maybe the Cubs moved him into the bullpen to prevent him from getting injured. Then they decided to give him one last shot and he did get injured. That’s entirely possible. Also, he’s coming off a serious shoulder injury. The last thing I really want is to see Cashner forced to go 5 or 6 innings if he’s getting knocked around and that’s what would happen in a big league rotation.

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  24. mb21

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]It’s not true that he’s always made it bad for those teams. Sure he’s had sustained success against them, but like you say, there’s been rough starts in there, too, and it’s Quade’s fucking job to not fall prey to selction and confirmation biases. Quade’s making it sound like Doug Davis is some kind of underrated star, instead of a poorly-manicured has-been lumping 79 MPH fastballs up there.[/quote]I didn’t think he was signing his praises. He was only pointing out a fact. That he didn’t say “he dominated the teams I coached except for this start in 2000, this one in 2002 and these two in 2010” doesn’t make what he said incorrect. There’s not a manager in baseball who isn’t going to cite that.

    Here’s what Quade said:

    “I’m glad he’s pitching for us,” Quade said. “Every time he’s taken the mound against clubs I’ve been around, it’s been very bad for the clubs I’ve been on. He owned us in Oakland, and he was tough on us here in the playoffs with Arizona.

    “He’s an experienced guy, changes speeds, he’s not going to overpower anybody, he’s going to have to locate. Rarely do you get a guy with that kind of experience, is familiar with the opposition, and I think he’ll handle all the rest of it very well.”

    Other than using “every time” which is just a phrase indicating overall dominance, I don’t see anything at all wrong with what he said. In fact, I like it. It’s exactly what I would say about Davis. It’s pretty much spot on.

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  25. GBTS

    [quote name=dylanj]http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/5/15/2172172/is-it-too-late-for-sub-500-teams-to-make-the-playoffs

    paging ryno[/quote]Can A Team Make Up Four Games In The Standings With Only 120 To Go?

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  26. Silky Johnson

    [quote name=GBTS]Can A Team Make Up Four Games In The Standings With Only 120 To Go?[/quote]
    Four? Yes. Five? No. That is not a postulate, it is a rule.

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  27. Rice Cube

    I voted that BJax replace Fukudome, but that is with the logic that Fuke is traded and Byrd is shifted to RF.

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  28. Suburban kid

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I voted that BJax replace Fukudome, but that is with the logic that Fuke is traded and Byrd is shifted to RF.[/quote]I voted Byrd because Kosuke is one of my favorite players and Byrd is one of my least favorite players. But it could be either since neither is here long term anyway.

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  29. Rice Cube

    I really like Fuke too but trading him makes more sense financially than trading Byrd to me. Although I can see both going or both staying. Who knows what the Cubs are thinking?

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  30. Suburban kid

    I suppose that makes sense if they need to keep one of them for 2012. They seem to have written off Colvin, and I doubt they want to spend on an outfielder next year.

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  31. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I really like Fuke too but trading him makes more sense financially than trading Byrd to me. Although I can see both going or both staying. Who knows what the Cubs are thinking?[/quote]Byrd’s contract makes him a much more marketable trade option. But the return for either he or Fukedome is not likely to be much. Personally, I’d trade both of them and play Colvin and Jackson every day after June 6 (or whenever the arb clock deadline is for Jackson). Let the kids play. Trade Ramirez, Byrd, and Fukudome, call up Marquez and Jackson, free Colvin from the bench, and let them play. And DFA Reed Johnson. Just because.

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  32. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=Rice Cube]http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/story?id=6553288

    Tony Campana suggested as the possible replacement.[/quote]It’s nice of Quade to pretend this is out of his hands while Reed Johnson is sitting around stealing AB and PT from Colvin because Baldy McGrindy thinks he’s a “gamer.”

    This whole organization is fucked. What is so hard for them to understand about a lost season? Plus, with fan interest waning, a few trades and letting some youngsters get solid PT might just revive the fanbase with the weather warming. It’s galling to me that since July of 2009, given the opportunity to make the right move, the Cubs have nearly always made the wrong move.

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  33. Berselius

    It’s galling to me that since July of 1909, given the opportunity to make the right move, the Cubs have nearly always made the wrong move.

    Fixed

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  34. Chris Dickerson

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Did Hendry or MacPhail hire Wilkins?[/quote]
    Tim Wilken or Rick Wilkins?

    Jim Hendry was GM and McPhail was CEO/President When Tim Wilken was hired… so they both did.
    http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20051220&content_id=1284603&vkey=pr_chc&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc

    Read your Bob Brenly bit recently. Reminded me of this:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fj5k6toS7i8

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  35. Suburban kid

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Berselius speaks the truth. Sad sad truth.[/quote]There’s ice on the sink where we bathe. How can you call this a home, when you know it’s a grave?

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  36. Rice Cube

    Does anyone know if there are pix of the field conditions from today? It wasn’t raining that bad today and is nice now. While the field is probably still soggy from last night I still think they could’ve gotten the game in today. This is the second time the Cubs have wussed out against an NL West opponent…first Colorado, and now SF. I understand safety concerns and all but that’s the way I’m thinking about it right now.

    Bochy and Lincecum aren’t complaining too much so it’s probably not that big of a deal, but the weather just didn’t seem so bad that they couldn’t have handled the field conditions today. But again, I don’t know how bad the field got from last night’s downpour.

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  37. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Does anyone know if there are pix of the field conditions from today? It wasn’t raining that bad today and is nice now. While the field is probably still soggy from last night I still think they could’ve gotten the game in today. This is the second time the Cubs have wussed out against an NL West opponent…first Colorado, and now SF. I understand safety concerns and all but that’s the way I’m thinking about it right now.[/quote]I don’t think the Cubs were rained out today. They were Lincecumed out. Any other pitcher and I’m guessing they play the game.

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  38. mb21

    [quote name=GW]aroldis chapman sucks[/quote]I hadn’t looked to see what he’s done so far this year until you said this. 20 walks in 13 innings. (dying laughing)

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  39. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]I don’t think the Cubs were rained out today. They were Lincecumed out. Any other pitcher and I’m guessing they play the game.[/quote]
    I understand that’s the home team’s decision and as I said, Bochy and Lincecum didn’t seem too bugged by it as they had to face Colorado tomorrow anyway. But there’s got to be stipulations against wuss-outs.

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  40. Rice Cube

    The first wuss-out, I forgot if they’d have to face Ubaldo or someone else…either way that was really annoying (dying laughing)

    It was Chacin that they dodged in the wuss-out against Colorado.

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  41. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I understand that’s the home team’s decision and as I said, Bochy and Lincecum didn’t seem too bugged by it as they had to face Colorado tomorrow anyway. But there’s got to be stipulations against wuss-outs.[/quote](dying laughing) I’d love MLB to come up with stipulations for wussing out as long as they refer to it as that.

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  42. Rice Cube

    I kind of want to write something blasting wuss-outs, but I really do want to find some form of video or photographic evidence that Wrigley Field is all fucked up first because I don’t want to feel guilty afterwards if the Cubs really were in the right.

    Fucked up as in the field conditions, not in the sense that the stadium is crumbling under its own age.

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  43. Horny Goat

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Byrd’s contract makes him a much more marketable trade option. But the return for either he or Fukedome is not likely to be much. Personally, I’d trade both of them and play Colvin and Jackson every day after June 6 (or whenever the arb clock deadline is for Jackson). Let the kids play. Trade Ramirez, Byrd, and Fukudome, call up Marquez and Jackson, free Colvin from the bench, and let them play. And DFA Reed Johnson. Just because.[/quote]
    Agreed

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  44. mb21

    The problem I have with trading Byrd is that it doesn’t accomplish a whole lot. The Cubs probably get something decent in return considering his salary, but he’s so cheap and still productive that he’s exactly the kind of player the Cubs should hold onto. Fukudome’s contract is up after this year so that’s not an obstacle, but Soriano’s contract is. If the Cubs could even save $3-4 million per year it would be worthwhile trading him. You can relegate Fukudome to 4th outfielder duties and have an outfield of Colvin, Jackson and Byrd.

    If it turns out you can’t even save a few million by trading Soriano, you can’t let his contract get in the way of the better player playing. Right now the Cubs have Marlon Byrd, Kosuke Fukudome and Brett Jackson who are all better than Soriano. It’s a shame what happened to Soriano with the injuries.

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  45. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]The problem I have with trading Byrd is that it doesn’t accomplish a whole lot. The Cubs probably get something decent in return considering his salary, but he’s so cheap and still productive that he’s exactly the kind of player the Cubs should hold onto. Fukudome’s contract is up after this year so that’s not an obstacle, but Soriano’s contract is. If the Cubs could even save $3-4 million per year it would be worthwhile trading him. You can relegate Fukudome to 4th outfielder duties and have an outfield of Colvin, Jackson and Byrd.

    If it turns out you can’t even save a few million by trading Soriano, you can’t let his contract get in the way of the better player playing. Right now the Cubs have Marlon Byrd, Kosuke Fukudome and Brett Jackson who are all better than Soriano. It’s a shame what happened to Soriano with the injuries.[/quote]Yeah, I don’t disagree, it’s just that Byrd is the most movable piece. I think Soriano might be the most untradeable player in MLB right now. Even with his shiny power numbers right now, nothing can smokescreen that ugly OBP and the horrid defense. He’s definitely the one who needs to be moved, but he’s also the one who is virtually impossible to move. And while salary shouldn’t dictate PT in theory, I think we all know how the actually works out.

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  46. Suburban kid

    Since April 28, Sam Fuld is hitting .113 in 71 AB, 5 RBI, 3 BB,
    10K, 2-2 in SBA

    Before April 28, he hit .350 in 80 AB with 9 BB 10K, 8 RBI, and 10-3 in SBA

    Just wanted to check if he had turned it around, but apparently not.

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  47. mb21

    [quote name=Suburban Kid]Since April 28, Sam Fuld is hitting .113 in 71 AB, 5 RBI, 3 BB,
    10K, 2-2 in SBA

    Before April 28, he hit .350 in 80 AB with 9 BB 10K, 8 RBI, and 10-3 in SBA

    Just wanted to check if he had turned it around, but apparently not.[/quote]Have they already had their Super Sam night?

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  48. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]I bet they’re wishing they never decided to do that promotion now.[/quote]
    It’s kind of like Tyler Colvin bobblehead night. I’m almost certain that Colvin didn’t play that night because Fukudome started and went 5-for-5. He was probably sitting on the bench bobbing his head. He needs to go to Iowa so he can play every day.

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  49. Dr. Aneus Taint

    Ha —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————> AA

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  50. Dr. Aneus Taint

    Thomas Diamond is gone?
    2nd time today I’m saying this…:
    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! He could…he could have gone 6 innings dammit. I swear. The potential was there, maybe.
    by SenorGato on May 15, 2011 2:12 PM PDT upreplyactions

    I’ve clicked “reply” about five times.
    But I said I was done with this, so I’m done.
    by Al Yellon on May 15, 2011 2:13 PM PDT upreplyactions

    .

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  51. mb21

    [quote name=Jame Gumb]Ha —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————> AA[/quote]Why can’t the Cubs make him show some kind of patience before promoting him?

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  52. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]Why can’t the Cubs make him show some kind of patience before promoting him?[/quote]
    This comment drips with irony.

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  53. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=mb21]Why can’t the Cubs make him show some kind of patience before promoting him?[/quote]
    We’re trying to win games here.

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  54. Mish

    Have you never been able to export FanGraphs player stats to Excel? I see the ability to do so on leaderboard pages, but not individual players. I kinda wanted to analyze Jose Bautista’s stats before September 4, 2009 and after it.

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  55. mb21

    [quote name=Mish]Have you never been able to export FanGraphs player stats to Excel? I see the ability to do so on leaderboard pages, but not individual players. I kinda wanted to analyze Jose Bautista’s stats before September 4, 2009 and after it.[/quote]You won’t be able to do so that specifically from Fangraphs, but you can always import tables into excel. There’s a Table2Clipboard addon for Firefox that I use frequently. Since you’re wanting to look at before and after 9/4/09 you’re probably better off using Baseball Reference. Or you could go the player’s splits page on Fangraphs and instead look at September and after.

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  56. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Suburban Kid]

    Totally[/quote]
    Although if they iron too slowly the clothes may catch on fire.

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  57. Dr. Aneus Taint

    I know some of you are Bulls fans, but how awesome would it be if Mark Cuban beat the Bulls in the NBA Finals?

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  58. GBTS

    [quote name=Jame Gumb]I know some of you are Bulls fans, but how awesome would it be if Mark Cuban beat the Bulls in the NBA Finals?[/quote]-1 faget point.

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  59. Rice Cube

    [quote name=GBTS]As a Chicago sports fan, GBTS thinks any championship for our city is a good thing. Go Chicago![/quote]
    Yay for traffic-congestion-inducing parades!

    /doesn’t drive in Chicago

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  60. Mish

    [quote name=Jame Gumb]I know some of you are Bulls fans, but how awesome would it be if Mark Cuban beat the Bulls in the NBA Finals?[/quote]Not at all?

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  61. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Jame Gumb]I know some of you are Bulls fans, but how awesome would it be if Mark Cuban beat the Bulls in the NBA Finals?[/quote]
    I don’t think it will happen but I am a big fan of Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki. If Kidd had been able to stay in school and Dirk had actually went to school, along with Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Cal would’ve been a much different basketball team in terms of raw power and recruitment potential. Alas.

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  62. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=GBTS]As a Chicago sports fan, Alvin thinks any championship for our city is a good thing. Go Chicago![/quote].

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  63. Mish

    Last night’s game was so much fun, but I don’t want to lose sight that it’s not that meaningful if the Bulls lose game 2.

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  64. mb21

    I’d love to see Cuban win a championship so Al and others at BCB can finally shut up about him not winning one. I don’t care who they beat.

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  65. Mish

    [quote name=Mish]Last night’s game was so much fun, but I don’t want to lose sight that it’s not that meaningful if the Bulls lose game 2 or 288.[/quote]
    I just flagged that one myself, JG.

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  66. mb21

    [quote name=Mish]Last night’s game was so much fun, but I don’t want to lose sight that it’s not that meaningful if the Bulls lose game 2.[/quote]Are the Bulls at home? If they lose game 2, they’d lose home court advantage making the win in game 1 virtually meaningless.

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  67. Dr. Aneus Taint

    Because you don’t know what Cuban would have done, either.

    Incidentally, how’s that championship thing working out for him in Dallas?

    “You can observe a lot just by watching.” ~ Yogi Berra
    by Al Yellon on Jun 2, 2010 2:10 PM PDT upactions

    Go Mavs.

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  68. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=mb21]I’d love to see Cuban win a championship so Al and others at BCB can finally shut up about him not winning one. I don’t care who they beat.[/quote]
    Exactly. See post No. 106. Beating the Bulls would make it extra awesome.

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  69. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Jame Gumb]Exactly. See post No. 106. Beating the Bulls would make it extra awesome.[/quote]
    At least the Mavs got to the championship round. But I guess that would not satisfy the Yellon.

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  70. GBTS

    I have to limit my passion for Al getting proved wrong to just the baseball realm. Well, maybe not. At least this Bulls team.

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  71. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=GBTS]I have to limit my passion for Al getting proved wrong to just the baseball realm. Well, maybe not. At least this Bulls team.[/quote][quote name=Mish]As much as I hate Al, I can’t knowingly root against an interest of mine just to spite him.[/quote]Same. Besides, Al’s always already wrong. Cuban getting a ring would just be piling anguish on top of misery for that portly, impotent douchenozzle.

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  72. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder] Cuban getting a ring would just be piling anguish on top of misery for that portly, impotent douchenozzle.[/quote]

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  73. mb21

    [quote name=dylanj]actually Ha has been walking alot more in May.[/quote]Yeah, but we’re talking 23 walks in 727 professional plate appearances. That’s a BB% of 3.16%. Even Josh Vitters is significantly more patient than Ha. Vitters career BB% is 4.2%. Vitters BB% at a higher level than Ha is nearly the same.

    The same reason Josh Vitters has no chance of being a productive MLB player is true for Ha. It’s possible one or both of them end up making decent back-ups, but even to accomplish that each is going to have become significantly more patient than they are right now.

    The bad part about this is that patience declines the higher you move up the system. I’m not sure exactly how much, but it’s a noticeable decline. If Vitters doesn’t become more patient, he’ll struggle to walk in 2.5% of his MLB plate appearance. Ha will struggle to walk even 2% of his.

    Both of these players should have been left in Daytona or Peoria until they figure out which pitches to swing at. If you can’t develop patience against pitchers you’re capable of killing you’re never going to.

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  74. mb21

    To give you an idea just how bad those BB%’s are, Corey Patterson walked in 6.98% of his plate appearances in the minor leagues between 1999 and 2001 before getting called up. That includes 403 AAA plate appearances and he was the same age as those guys. Felix Pie walked in 7.2% of his minor league plate appearances through the 2007 season. 873 of those plate appearances came at AAA.

    When I complain about Vitters plate discipline it’s not because he’s comparable to some of the hackers in MLB. It’s because he’s not even close to comparable to some of the least patient hitters I’ve ever seen. Ha has even less patience than Vitters.

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  75. mb21

    Jeff Francouer 5.7% in the minors. Jose Lopez has the worst MLB BB% since 2009 at 3.5%. His was 4.7% in the minors. Miguel Tejada is 2nd worst and his MiLB BB% was 10.04%. AJ Pierzynski was next and his was 4.6%. 7.98% for Vlad. 8.3% for Orlando Cabrera and Marlon Byrd. 6.83% for Starlin Castro.

    Those are the players with the worst patience in MLB since 2009 and they were all considerably better in the minors as we’d expect. Some of them even had good walk rates.

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  76. mb21

    The wRC+ of the ten worst:

    77
    92
    81
    68
    87
    63
    93
    113 (Vlad, 10% walk rate in the minors)
    81

    Expecting a 2.5% mlb walk rate from Vitters is probably too high.

    I can’t stress this enough, as low as the walk rate is for those two players, they literally have no chance to succeed at the highest level. James Russell has a significantly better chance of winning back to back Cy Young awards. For that matter, I think there’s a better chance of Russell going back to back in the NL and Carlos Silva winning the award in the AL the same two seasons. (dying laughing)

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  77. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]Jeff Francouer 5.7% in the minors. Jose Lopez has the worst MLB BB% since 2009 at 3.5%. His was 4.7% in the minors. Miguel Tejada is 2nd worst and his MiLB BB% was 10.04%. AJ Pierzynski was next and his was 4.6%. 7.98% for Vlad. 8.3% for Orlando Cabrera and Marlon Byrd. 6.83% for Starlin Castro.

    Those are the players with the worst patience in MLB since 2009 and they were all considerably better in the minors as we’d expect. Some of them even had good walk rates.[/quote]
    I always thought players would walk in 5% of their plate appearances just through sheer dumb luck. Who knew?

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  78. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I always thought players would walk in 5% of their plate appearances just through sheer dumb luck. Who knew?[/quote]Even at the MLB level you’d think that would be true. There’s only 10 players who have qualified for at least one batting title since 2009 who have a combined BB% less than 5%. Marlon Byrd is the 10th at 4.9% and Castro ranks 11th at 5.1% (and dropping). There’s only 19 since 2008 who are below 6%. It’s difficult to be that undisciplined at the plate.

    To be 3% in the minor leagues in Ha’s case and 4% in Vitters case is remarkable. The guys who have that kind of patience aren’t big league players.

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  79. mb21

    It’s actually easier to walk in more than 12% of your plate appearances than it is to walk in less than 6%. Seriously. More players have walked in 12% or more than under 6%. It takes great effort to lack discipline that much.

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  80. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]It’s actually easier to walk in more than 12% of your plate appearances than it is to walk in less than 6%. Seriously. More players have walked in 12% or more than under 6%. It takes great effort to lack discipline that much.[/quote]
    If nothing else, you’ve inspired me to stop swinging so much in my baseball video game and see what happens.

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  81. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]If nothing else, you’ve inspired me to stop swinging so much in my baseball video game and see what happens.[/quote]I don’t actually mean it’s easier. It just happens more frequently, which is a little interesting. The bottom line is that if you a walk rate of 4% or under in the minor leagues you’re either not making it to the big leagues or you are going to suck. We could probably expand that to 6% and be right 95% of the time. I’m sure there’s a player or two who have sucked in terms of patience in the minors who suddenly figured it out. That happens more than we think, but if you’re a gambling man, put $1000 on every player in the minors with a walk rate under 6% not having even one season where he’s average and you’re going to make a killing.

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  82. WaLi

    [quote name=mb21]It’s actually easier to walk in more than 12% of your plate appearances than it is to walk in less than 6%. Seriously. More players have walked in 12% or more than under 6%. It takes great effort to lack discipline that much.[/quote]
    [quote name=mb21]I don’t actually mean it’s easier. It just happens more frequently, which is a little interesting. The bottom line is that if you a walk rate of 4% or under in the minor leagues you’re either not making it to the big leagues or you are going to suck. .[/quote]
    Flip Flopper

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  83. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]I don’t actually mean it’s easier. It just happens more frequently, which is a little interesting. The bottom line is that if you a walk rate of 4% or under in the minor leagues you’re either not making it to the big leagues or you are going to suck. We could probably expand that to 6% and be right 95% of the time. I’m sure there’s a player or two who have sucked in terms of patience in the minors who suddenly figured it out. That happens more than we think, but if you’re a gambling man, put $1000 on every player in the minors with a walk rate under 6% not having even one season where he’s average and you’re going to make a killing.[/quote]
    The converse is that it speaks to the players’ inability to learn to stop swinging and to achieve some form of discipline. Getting a walk rate between 8-10% seems to be the norm and if the player can’t do that, it’s probably a function both of his overall level of suck as well as his own lack of desire to improve. Or else it’s a lack of the organization’s desire to teach him. If we’re talking about the Cubs and given some of the statements we’ve seen in the media from Cubs coaches, the latter may be closer to the truth.

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  84. Rice Cube

    I think I read somewhere that it’s more likely for a player to just have patience or not have it, than to suddenly learn it. Maybe it was from one of you guys, or maybe it was from Moneyball or The Book (don’t recall). But even with a lot of the skill coming from nature, there has to be some level of nurture the team can instill to bump that walk rate up 1%, right?

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  85. GW

    [quote name=Rice Cube]The converse is that it speaks to the players’ inability to learn to stop swinging and to achieve some form of discipline. Getting a walk rate between 8-10% seems to be the norm and if the player can’t do that, it’s probably a function both of his overall level of suck as well as his own lack of desire to improve. Or else it’s a lack of the organization’s desire to teach him. If we’re talking about the Cubs and given some of the statements we’ve seen in the media from Cubs coaches, the latter may be closer to the truth.[/quote]
    meh. mostly selection bias, probably

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  86. Rice Cube

    Random question…

    So there’s a Rule 4 draft which is the normal amateur draft, and the Rule 5 draft. What happened to rules 1-3?

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  87. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Random question…

    So there’s a Rule 4 draft which is the normal amateur draft, and the Rule 5 draft. What happened to rules 1-3?[/quote]
    They’re up your butt.

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  88. Rice Cube

    [quote name=GBTS]Next you’ll tell me that a team four games out of first place in May can still win a division.[/quote]
    Five, GBTS. Five.

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  89. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Jame Gumb]I won’t post the fourth gif here, as it gets a little out of hand.[/quote]
    Someone got a little -faget-point happy.

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  90. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]The converse is that it speaks to the players’ inability to learn to stop swinging and to achieve some form of discipline. Getting a walk rate between 8-10% seems to be the norm and if the player can’t do that, it’s probably a function both of his overall level of suck as well as his own lack of desire to improve. Or else it’s a lack of the organization’s desire to teach him. If we’re talking about the Cubs and given some of the statements we’ve seen in the media from Cubs coaches, the latter may be closer to the truth.[/quote]I don’t think there’s much truth in what Theriot or Fuld apparently said. I think someone has to be naive to think the Cubs are doing anything differently when it comes to their coaching in the minor leagues. These coaches are guys who have worked in other organizations.

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  91. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=GBTS]JG how bad are you hoping that Alvin one day comments on a Big 12 SBNation site?[/quote]
    He’s actually commented on an OU one before, but it was soooo long ago.

    I’m writing a letter a day to the University of Texas asking them to play a game at Wrigley Field so he’ll go to the Texas sites.

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  92. Dr. Aneus Taint

    In what Mark & I agreed was probably the greatest football game either of us had ever seen (on TV or in person), and for Mark was, according to him, the most exciting sporting event he’d ever attended in person, Boise State blew a 28-10 lead to trail 35-28 with a minute to go, tied it up on an improbable “hook-and-ladder” play (I’d never even heard of that one before), and then had to do another razzle-dazzle play on a two-point conversion attempt in overtime to defeat Oklahoma 43-42 in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.
    — Alvin

    First of all, that’s one sentence.

    Second, never heard of the “Hook and Ladder”?

    Third, the statue of liberty play is a trick play, but I don’t know that it’s razzle dazzle. It’s a fake throw and handoff.

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  93. Dr. Aneus Taint

    The game was actually somewhat of a yawner until the fourth quarter; the Oklahoma Sooners and their vaunted running back Adrian Peterson, who is no relation to the Bears’ Adrian Peterson — what is it about certain sports names that seem to repeat each other? I swear, there must be a dozen Ja(y)son Williams floating around pro sports — played pretty flat, while the Boise State Broncos were doing their best imitation of the Bears’ defense, scoring one touchdown after a fumble recovery deep in Sooners territory and another on a 28-yard interception return by Marty Tadman.
    — Alvin

    One sentence.

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  94. Dr. Aneus Taint

    In what Mark & I agreed was probably the greatest football game either of us had ever seen (on TV or in person), and for Mark was, according to him, the most exciting sporting event he’d ever attended in person, Boise State blew a 28-10 lead to trail 35-28 with a minute to go, tied it up on an improbable “hook-and-ladder” play (I’d never even heard of that one before), and then had to do another razzle-dazzle play on a two-point conversion attempt in overtime to defeat Oklahoma 43-42 in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

    The game was actually somewhat of a yawner until the fourth quarter; the Oklahoma Sooners and their vaunted running back Adrian Peterson, who is no relation to the Bears’ Adrian Peterson — what is it about certain sports names that seem to repeat each other? I swear, there must be a dozen Ja(y)son Williams floating around pro sports — played pretty flat, while the Boise State Broncos were doing their best imitation of the Bears’ defense, scoring one touchdown after a fumble recovery deep in Sooners territory and another on a 28-yard interception return by Marty Tadman.

    The half-and-half stadium crowd — we were in the end zone, so in sort of a “mixed” area, with one side being all-crimson Oklahoma and the other being the garish orange of Boise State — was fairly quiet most of the first three quarters; — chants of “Boomer! Sooner!” (What does that mean, anyway?) and “Boise! State!” were about the only thing punctuating the stop-and-go offenses. That, and TV timeouts that seemed long enough for Adrian Peterson to break his collarbone again and heal it.

    But when Boise State’s QB Jared Zabransky did his best Rex Grossman imitation and put up a poorly-aimed pass that was intercepted by the Sooners’ Marcus Walker for a touchdown that put Oklahoma in the lead, the Oklahoma fans (OK, we were rooting for Boise State — as Cubs fans, how could we not love the underdog?) made the stadium literally shake. Or, at least half of it shake, as the orange-clad side sat in stunned silence.
    — Alvin

    Jesus, this is five sentences. (dying laughing)

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  95. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=GBTS]Why does Alvin keep going to the Fiesta Bowl?[/quote]
    He’s a faget. That or he’s drawn to OU.

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  96. GBTS

    [quote name=Jame Gumb]Jesus, this is five sentences. (dying laughing)[/quote]That third paragraph is one of the worst written things I’ve ever seen.

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  97. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=GBTS]That third paragraph is one of the worst written things I’ve ever seen.[/quote]
    And in one of those recaps, he has the sack to complain about errors in his program.

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  98. Suburban kid

    [quote name=GBTS]That third paragraph is one of the worst written things I’ve every seen.[/quote].

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  99. Mish

    the Oklahoma Sooners and their vaunted running back Adrian Peterson, who is no relation to the Bears’ Adrian Peterson — what is it about certain sports names that seem to repeat each other? I swear, there must be a dozen Ja(y)son Williams floating around pro sports

    Fuck the heck?

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  100. Mucker

    Does Al Yellon-no relation to Professor Derek Yellon of UCL-really believe himself to be that interesting of a person, that he can write about his experiences at the 2007 Fiesta Bowl-What’s with all the college bowl games anyways?, there are far too many in my opinion-that people will actually read it and give a flying fuck-as opposed to a falling fuck because falling fucks don’t sound as cool-?

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  101. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Mish]Anyone (Ryno?) follow the AL West close enough? Is Jemile Weeks gonna be joining the A’s anytime soon?[/quote]
    He should. If that team could put up runs, they’d be a juggernaut. Cahill might be the best pitcher no one knows.

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  102. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Does Al Yellon-no relation to Professor Derek Yellon of UCL-really believe himself to be that interesting of a person, that he can write about his experiences at the 2007 Fiesta Bowl-What’s with all the college bowl games anyways?, there are far too many in my opinion-that people will actually read it and give a flying fuck-as opposed to a falling fuck because falling fucks don’t sound as cool-?[/quote]
    Yes. Alvin has a god complex at BCB.

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