How much is Prince Fielder worth?

In Major League Baseball by dmick89261 Comments

We’ve talked a lot about Albert Pujols and taken a look at his value, but I don’t believe we’ve done so with Fielder. Apparently many executives think he’ll sign with the Cubs. I’m not optimistic about it, but it’s worth looking at anyway. CAIRO projects 4.4 WAR while Oliver projects 4.0. Let’s split the difference and go with 4.2 in 2012.

Year: age, WAR
2012: 28, 4.2
2013: 29, 4.0
2014: 30, 3.5
2015: 31, 3.0
2016: 32, 2.5
2017: 33, 2.0
2018: 34, 1.5
2019: 35, 1.0

I only took .2 WAR away from entering his age 29 seaon figuring it’s close enough to the prime that maybe we shouldn’t subtract by .5 WAR to begin with. He’ll be league average or better through 2017 so let’s start with a 6-year contract. We’ll use $5 million per win in 2012 with 5% inflation each year.

Year $ per-win WAR $WAR
2012 5.0 4.2 $21.0
2013 5.3 4 $21.0
2014 5.5 3.5 $19.3
2015 5.8 3 $17.4
2016 6.1 2.5 $15.2
2017 6.4 2 $12.8
Total 19.2 $106.6

Those numbers are anywhere close to the numbers we’ve seen thrown around so far. Let’s look at 7 years.

In 2018 the projected win value would be $6.7 million. We’d project Fielder to be worth 1.5 WAR for a total $WAR of $10.1 million. Over those 7 years he’d be worth 20.7 WAR and $116.7 million.

The 8th year (2019) he adds 1 WAR and is worth $7.0 million $WAR. Total contract for 8 years is $123.7 million.

If we were to start at 5 WAR rather than 4.2 you end up with an 8-year contract for $161.9 million. He provides 28.1 WAR over those 8 years and is worth 1.8 WAR in the final year of the contract.

If the bidding goes higher than that I find it almost impossible to believe that Theo and Jed Hoyer are going to get involved. So sure, they’re involved at some level, but that level can’t possible be higher than 8 years and $161.9 million. That’s the maximum Fielder should get. That includes a generous projection, little to no aging after the first year followed by .5 WAR decreases and beginning with $5 million per win. The value per win may even be high.

I think 6 years and $125 million is about the highest I’d go.


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  1. Aisle424

    [quote name=ACT]Also, he’s fat. And he apparently doesn’t test well with the all-important latin-american demographic.[/quote]
    That’s actually a benefit in Chicago where we don’t like the latinos because of their laziness. Black dudes are OK as long as they hit really long homeruns and don’t speak their mind too much.

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  2. fang2415

    [quote name=Aisle424]Elizabeth Taylor in her day was pretty damn hot, but Christina Hendricks is on the list? Nothing against her, but nobody is going to remember who she is within 5 years.

    So it is definitely flawed, but they got #1 right, in my opinion. My list will always begin and end with Jennifer Aniston.[/quote]Wrong, wrong, and wrong.

    I’m not even going to say why. You should just know. (dying laughing)

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  3. fang2415

    I know these WARs come from the projections, but are they closer to fWAR or rWAR?

    Now that I think of it, is the $5M/win for fWAR or rWAR?

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  4. fang2415

    Also, I’m assuming that when you say “Those numbers are anywhere close to the numbers we’ve seen thrown around so far,” what you mean is, you know, the opposite of that? (dying laughing)

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  5. Rodrigo

    Not sure if someone talked about this already, but regarding Ian Stewart:

    Maybe Thoyer see something in him the way they did with Bill Mueller back in 03/04? I remember them saying they identified him as a player they believed would turn it around; had a good approach for the short fence in Boston; played good enough D, etc.

    Am I reaching here?

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  6. mb21

    [quote name=fang2415]I know these WARs come from the projections, but are they closer to fWAR or rWAR?

    Now that I think of it, is the $5M/win for fWAR or rWAR?[/quote]CAIRO uses an average defensive projection and Oliver uses its own defensive projection. CAIRO uses wOBA. I’m sure Berselius could tell you what Oliver uses, but I don’t think it’s wOBA. Is it closer to fWAR or rWAR? I don’t think it should matter. Not much anyway.

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  7. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]Is it closer to fWAR or rWAR? I don’t think it should matter. Not much anyway.[/quote]Well, last year they were pretty close together on Prince, but in 2010 they were .7 apart. So over 8 years that’s like $30M. I guess the projections might be out by that much anyway though…

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  8. fang2415

    [quote name=fang2415]Wrong, wrong, and wrong.

    I’m not even going to say why. You should just know. (dying laughing)[/quote]Sad when people can’t accept statements of indisputable fact. (dying laughing)

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  9. Aisle424

    Albert Pujols:

    “I believe they’re going to continue to love me in the city of St. Louis.”

    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

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  10. fang2415

    [quote name=Aisle424]Albert Pujols:

    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)[/quote]He is a man of abiding faith.

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  11. Mercurial Outfielder

    MLBTR on the ramifications of the Pujols deal:

    Rookie of the Year runner-up Mark Trumbo and the injured Kendrys Morales are now in limbo. There has been some talk of moving Trumbo to third, but the Angels may trade him instead. Morales, a borderline non-tender candidate with a projected salary in the $3MM range, might draw interest from teams such as the Rays, Pirates, Cubs, Brewers and Blue Jays if and when he and Trumbo become available.

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  12. mb21

    [quote name=fang2415]Well, last year they were pretty close together on Prince, but in 2010 they were .7 apart. So over 8 years that’s like $30M. I guess the projections might be out by that much anyway though…[/quote]A projection is just a ballpark estimate of a player’s true talent level. Over the last 3 years he’s been worth 14 rWAR and 15.3 fWAR. rWAR has him worth -18 fielding (Total Zone) and UZR is at -10.8. That’s .7 wins. Overall, rWAR is using 140 RAR and fWAR is using 148.4. I’d say that’s pretty close considering it’s been 2125 plate appearances. A .6 WAR difference over 3 years isn’t anything I’m too concerned about and there’s no way to know which one is right (if either of them even are correct).

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  13. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]If fWAR and rWAR disagreed like they do on Ricky Nolasco I’d think it’s more important to nail down the method.[/quote]Yeah, fair enough. After looking at Fielder’s actual numbers I realized it didn’t make much difference in this case.

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  14. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]Only 2 more days to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players, right?[/quote]I think so. Monday at 11:59 PM Eastern, methinks.

    If they don’t non-tender Koyie Hill, does that mean the Cubs are truly retarded?

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  15. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]No. Hill is the backup plan in case LaHair doesn’t pan out at first base.[/quote]Oh yeah, I forgot how important organizational depth was.

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  16. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]Also, he’s the team’s ninth starter.[/quote]He’s probably working on his cutter and split-finger right now.

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  17. fang2415

    The positive result was triggered by elevated levels of testosterone in Braun’s system, the sources also told “Outside the Lines.” A subsequent, more comprehensive test revealed the testosterone was synthetic — not produced by Braun’s body.

    Every individual naturally produces testosterone and a substance called epitestosterone, typically at a ratio of 1-to-1. In Major League Baseball, if the ratio comes in at 4-to-1 or higher during testing, a player is deemed to have tested positive. The sources did not indicate how high above the threshold Braun’s sample tested.

    To affirm the results and strengthen its case, MLB asked the World Anti-Doping Agency lab in Montreal, which conducts its testing, to perform a secondary test to determine whether the testosterone spike resulted from natural variations within Braun’s body or from an artificial source. The test indicated the testosterone was exogenous, meaning it came from outside his body.

    Biochemistry nerds, report in.

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  18. Rice Cube

    [quote name=fang2415]Biochemistry nerds, report in.[/quote]
    So epitestosterone apparently only differs at the carbon with the hydroxyl group…I’m not sure how it forms or which enzyme does it but the hydroxyl group basically just points the other way than testosterone. I think they’re just looking at that hydroxyl group for the most part to determine whether it’s natural or synthetic, because that moiety can be substituted for other side groups that could improve drug uptake or whatever.

    Other nerds would probably know more than I.

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  19. fang2415

    [quote name=Rice Cube]So epitestosterone apparently only differs at the carbon with the hydroxyl group…I’m not sure how it forms or which enzyme does it but the hydroxyl group basically just points the other way than testosterone. I think they’re just looking at that hydroxyl group for the most part to determine whether it’s natural or synthetic, because that moiety can be substituted for other side groups that could improve drug uptake or whatever.

    Other nerds would probably know more than I.[/quote]Got it. So… did he do it?

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  20. Rice Cube

    [quote name=fang2415]Got it. So… did he do it?[/quote]If it’s just the epimer, the body does that on its own so Braun might just be a mutant.

    If it’s truly synthetic, then the only defense he has is the “tainted vitamin” defense.

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  21. fang2415

    [quote name=fang2415]Got it. So… did he do it?[/quote](dying laughing) I was more looking for like, how reliable are these tests, are they meaningfully disputable, will repeat tests or independent analysis change anything, etc. But I also appreciate the info on hydroxyl groups. (dying laughing)

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  22. Rice Cube

    [quote name=fang2415](dying laughing) I was more looking for like, how reliable are these tests, are they meaningfully disputable, will repeat tests or independent analysis change anything, etc. But I also appreciate the info on hydroxyl groups. (dying laughing)[/quote]I actually am not sure how one tests for steroids…given how the steroid molecule is set up I assume they just drop the pee onto a TLC plate and see where stuff migrates (dying laughing)

    I wouldn’t trust anything I say as I’m not an expert, but I did ace organic chemistry 😀

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  23. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Rice Cube]If it’s just the epimer, the body does that on its own so Braun might just be a mutant.

    If it’s truly synthetic, then the only defense he has is the “tainted vitamin” defense.[/quote]Apparently some ESPN reporter suggested the “tainted candy bar” theory (dying laughing)

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  24. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=Rice Cube]If it’s just the epimer, the body does that on its own so Braun might just be a mutant.

    If it’s truly synthetic, then the only defense he has is the unprecedented amount of manliness that comes from wearing Reme-Tees.[/quote]

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  25. fang2415

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I wouldn’t trust anything I say as I’m not an expert, but I did ace organic chemistry :-D[/quote]Sounds good. Until another nerd pipes up, I’ll just assume that anything you say is Truth. (dying laughing)

    [quote name=Rice Cube]If it’s just the epimer, the body does that on its own so Braun might just be a mutant.

    If it’s truly synthetic, then the only defense he has is the “tainted vitamin” defense.[/quote]Is there a way to be sure about whether it’s synthetic or not? How likely would false positives be for this kind of thing?

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  26. Rice Cube

    [quote name=fang2415]Is there a way to be sure about whether it’s synthetic or not? How likely would false positives be for this kind of thing?[/quote]I’m not smart enough to answer those questions (dying laughing)

    Let’s see what Google says.

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  27. fang2415

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Apparently some ESPN reporter suggested the “tainted candy bar” theory (dying laughing)[/quote]It would be pretty funny if some clubhouse attendant just dumped some steroids over the visiting team’s bowl of M&Ms.

    I wouldn’t put it past the Cardinals.

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  28. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=FonteYES]So this proves that he’s a mutant right?[/quote]Uncle Leo thinks you’re an antisemite.

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  29. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=FonteYES]Go drink a beer from a can.[/quote]Truly, you are the Inspector Javert to my Jean Valjean.

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  30. Mercurial Outfielder

    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

    For some reason, having FY back made me remember “these beer-from-can sipping Slipknot disciples.”

    Such poetry. (dying laughing)

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  31. mb21

    A spokesman for Braun issued a statement Saturday: “There are highly unusual circumstances surrounding this case which will support Ryan’s complete innocence and demonstrate there was absolutely no intentional violation of the program. While Ryan has impeccable character and no previous history, unfortunately, because of the process we have to maintain confidentiality and are not able to discuss it any further, but we are confident he will ultimately be exonerated.”

    Even if he is exonerated, it will unfortunately not matter one bit. That’s a shame. I don’t know why the MLBPA didn’t fight for having these tests not be revealed until after the appeal.

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  32. FonteYES

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Truly, you are the Inspector Javert to my Jean Valjean.[/quote]
    I dont think Jean Valjean hated Lance Berkman as much as you.

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  33. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]Still in state of shock.[/quote]About Braun? Pujols signing with the Angels? Soriano is still owed $54 million?

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  34. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]What somebody needs to report is the probability of false positives showing up given the large number of tests being performed.[/quote]I read something about that awhile back and it’s not uncommon. I don’t believe it’s common either, but it happens more than people think, which is why I think it’s bullshit this comes out without the appeal having been heard.

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  35. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]Even if he is exonerated, it will unfortunately not matter one bit. That’s a shame. I don’t know why the MLBPA didn’t fight for having these tests not be revealed until after the appeal.[/quote]It’s always been incredible to me how something that is unquestionably private for your average citizen–their medical records–is not even a bit private for athletes.

    For anyone celebrating this result, I wonder how you might feel if I made the results of your last physical public. Or say your last drug test. Or STD exam. For some reason, we’ve come to feel it’s perfectly okay to ransack the privacy of pro athletes, in ways that are tantamount to a civil rights violation.

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  36. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=FonteYES]I dont think Jean Valjean hated Lance Berkman as much as you.[/quote]I don’t think anyone hates Berkman as much as me. (dying laughing)

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  37. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]About Braun? Pujols signing with the Angels? Soriano is still owed $54 million?[/quote]Brad and Angelina. Still together. I know I’m amazed.

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  38. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=ACT]Maybe the Brewers can sign Manny Ramirez. I hear he’s coming out of retirement…[/quote]He still has to serve his suspension. Maybe he and Braun can get together on a workout routine. I bet Manny would love a few Reme-Tees.

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  39. mb21

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]It’s always been incredible to me how something that is unquestionably private for your average citizen–their medical records–is not even a bit private for athletes.

    For anyone celebrating this result, I wonder how you might feel if I made the results of your last physical public. Or say your last drug test. Or STD exam. For some reason, we’ve come to feel it’s perfectly okay to ransack the privacy of pro athletes, in ways that are tantamount to a civil rights violation.[/quote]Yeah, I couldn’t agree more. I know the basic argument against this is that these players agree to have this info released. Well, do they have any choice? In other words, can an athlete play their sport and refuse to have this information released? If not, they did not agree to anything.

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  40. mb21

    I also couldn’t care less that Braun tested positive. He’ll miss 50 games, but did the Brewers now fail to win the NL Central in 2011? No. They won the division and Braun was fucking awesome. I don’t care how it happened. All I know is that it happened.

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  41. Rice Cube

    Certain “ethnic populations” are more/less likely to get caught when using banned substances like testosterone (e.g. East Asians and Swedish Caucasians).

    Well fuck. I guess I missed my big chance (dying laughing)

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  42. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]I also couldn’t care less that Braun tested positive. He’ll miss 50 games, but did the Brewers now fail to win the NL Central in 2011? No. They won the division and Braun was fucking awesome. I don’t care how it happened. All I know is that it happened.[/quote]I’m more interested in 2012 now, as it’s likely the Brewers will take a hit if Braun’s test holds up. Cubs don’t need to get better if everyone else is shittier!

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  43. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]Even if he is exonerated, it will unfortunately not matter one bit. That’s a shame. I don’t know why the MLBPA didn’t fight for having these tests not be revealed until after the appeal.[/quote]I don’t think there was an official announcement, was there? It sounds like it leaked. Still bad of course, but not too much you can really do about it.

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  44. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]I also couldn’t care less that Braun tested positive. He’ll miss 50 games, but did the Brewers now fail to win the NL Central in 2011? No. They won the division and Braun was fucking awesome. I don’t care how it happened. All I know is that it happened.[/quote]Damn it! I meant to post inb4 MB says he couldn’t care less but I forgot.

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  45. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]Yeah, I couldn’t agree more. I know the basic argument against this is that these players agree to have this info released. Well, do they have any choice? In other words, can an athlete play their sport and refuse to have this information released? If not, they did not agree to anything.[/quote]I’m pretty sure most league have penalties for teams that don’t release this kind of info about their players.

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  46. mb21

    I think I read once that some positive steroids tests aren’t reported to reduce the number of false positives. I’m pretty sure it’s that way in the Olympics. Too lazy to look though.

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  47. mb21

    [quote name=fang2415]I don’t think there was an official announcement, was there? It sounds like it leaked. Still bad of course, but not too much you can really do about it.[/quote]Who leaked it? This is something that the MLBPA should care about. Whoever leaked it should lose whatever job they have.

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  48. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]Who leaked it? This is something that the MLBPA should care about. Whoever leaked it should lose whatever job they have.[/quote]Well, in the Bonds case, we now know that it was a federal prosecutor that leaked almost all the material that was leaked, so I wouldn’t be shocked if someone in the league’s power structure released this.

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  49. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]Braun was informed of the positive result in late October, so he’s been appealing this for a while.[/quote]I just don’t like that it has come out. If it turns out it was a false positive, people will ignore that result. The only thing that matters at this point is whether he misses 50 games or not. His credibility is damaged either way.

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  50. mb21

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Well, in the Bonds case, we now know that it was a federal prosecutor that leaked almost all the material that was leaked, so I wouldn’t be shocked if someone in the league’s power structure released this.[/quote]I don’t know. I think if they were going to do that they’d have done so before the MVP voting. It wouldn’t surprise me if you’re right, but it seems to me they’d have done so several weeks ago.

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  51. Rice Cube

    They won’t force him to vacate the MVP, right?

    I mean, Matt Kemp deserved to win, but I’m just saying that he was voted as MVP and they can’t exactly rescind that…or can they?

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  52. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]I don’t know. I think if they were going to do that they’d have done so before the MVP voting. It wouldn’t surprise me if you’re right, but it seems to me they’d have done so several weeks ago.[/quote]Perhaps. But figure this info is very damaging to the league, and Bud would have wanted it released at a time when the fewest amount of eyes are on baseball. Today is a pretty good day, if someone was planning a leak of info they didn’t want a lot made of…

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  53. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=Rice Cube]They won’t force him to vacate the MVP, right?

    I mean, Matt Kemp deserved to win, but I’m just saying that he was voted as MVP and they can’t exactly rescind that…or can they?[/quote]I doubt MLB has the authority to do that.

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  54. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]I just don’t like that it has come out. If it turns out it was a false positive, people will ignore that result. The only thing that matters at this point is whether he misses 50 games or not. His credibility is damaged either way.[/quote]Meh, I don’t know. If he’s exonerated enough for the league, people will “keep an eye on him”, but I don’t think they’ll mind too much (Brewers fans certainly won’t). He’ll get a few heckles… but it’s nothing like what would happen if he were accused and then acquitted of raping a ten-year-old.

    *ducks*

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  55. mb21

    [quote name=fang2415]Meh, I don’t know. If he’s exonerated enough for the league, people will “keep an eye on him”, but I don’t think they’ll mind too much (Brewers fans certainly won’t). He’ll get a few heckles… but it’s nothing like what would happen if he were accused and then acquitted of raping a ten-year-old.

    *ducks*[/quote]Most Brewers fans aren’t going to care either way. At least not once he comes back and starts hitting home runs. If the team gets off to a rough start he could take a beating.

    I guess I’d just rather be safe in this situation because even a hint of doing a performance enhancing drug sticks with the player through his entire playing career and after if he’s a Hall of Fame caliber player.

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  56. mb21

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Perhaps. But figure this info is very damaging to the league, and Bud would have wanted it released at a time when the fewest amount of eyes are on baseball. Today is a pretty good day, if someone was planning a leak of info they didn’t want a lot made of…[/quote]Good point.

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  57. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Didn’t I post the same thing in this thread? Damn you, Heckler! (dying laughing)[/quote]You did, thought you’d appreciate that.

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  58. Rice Cube

    Did you guys know you are #1 on the Google search when one types in “discredited blog”?

    I think that’s something to be proud of.

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  59. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Did you guys know you are #1 on the Google search when one types in “discredited blog”?

    I think that’s something to be proud of.[/quote]That cost Aisle 424 a lot of money.

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  60. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]More on the “unusual circumstances” that allegedly exonerate Braun: http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/12/10/2627123/ryan-braun-positive-ped-test/in/2391077%5B/quote%5DA second test isn’t exoneration. The half life for steroids isn’t that long. Say Braun’s ratio was just 4:1, in a matter of days he could test clean. It depends on what steroid he was taking. Not to mention that people aren’t on steroids like stoners smoking weed.

    If his first test was positive I couldn’t care less about what his next test revealed. At the same time I couldn’t care less what he used.

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  61. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]Now it’s not working for me, either, but it did the first couple times I tried it.[/quote]RC ruins everything. Now we’re number 2 because of him.

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  62. FonteYES

    I I could care less that mb could care less. No one should care what am ex-addict, republican, statfag hick has to say.

    For gods sake, the man tips cows for a pastime.

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  63. mb21

    [quote name=FonteYES]I I could care less that mb could care less. No one should care what am ex-addict, republican, statfag hick has to say.

    For gods sake, the man tips cows for a pastime.[/quote]I had forgotten about the cow tipping. (dying laughing)

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  64. Berselius

    Zero fucks given about Braun taking PEDs. My first thought was that it could open up the NLC for the Cubs if they sign Fielder. But the Reds would probably still have the upper hand.

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  65. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]The sum total of fucks given about Braun by MO and Berselius is zero.[/quote]
    Mish posted this to fb earlier, gave me my morning (dying laughing)

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  66. ACT

    I care in that a) it may result in a suspension and b) it is against the rules and may give the user an advantage over non-rule breakers (i.e., non-cheaters).

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  67. mb21

    a) it may result in a suspension

    Baseball is worse without Ryan Braun so that’s a good point.

    b) it is against the rules

    Also a good point.

    and may give the user an advantage over non-rule breakers (i.e., non-cheaters)

    Players have advantages over other players. Do we want a league where all the players are equal? Albert Pujols has an advantage over Bryan LaHair. Prince Fielder was born with the advantage of being a very big man while Ryan Theriot was not. The argument that it’s about unfair advantages does nothing for me. The game isn’t fair and I don’t think it needs to be.

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  68. ACT

    Right, it’s unfair, but everyone should be on the same playing field as far as rules are concerned. That is, people who break the rules should not have an advantage over those who don’t. People who are caught doctoring balls, corking bats, bribing or threatening umpires, using illegal sign-stealing, and, yes, using banned substances are trying to get a dishonest advantage to themselves and should be punished.

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  69. ACT

    I mean, people would (rightly) cry that it’s unfair if one team got to start with a 1-run advantage or the rules were different for different teams, or the umpires gave players/teams preferential treatment. Saying life/baseball is to confuse two types of unfairness: the inherent unfairness of the game and life, and genuine injustice.

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  70. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=ACT]I mean, people would (rightly) cry that it’s unfair if one team got to start with a 1-run advantage or the rules were different for different teams, or the umpires gave players/teams preferential treatment. Saying life/baseball is to confuse two types of unfairness: the inherent unfairness of the game and life, and genuine injustice.[/quote]To suppose that steroids, PEDs, etc represent a “genuine injustice” flies in the face of the available evidence. There’s nothing to suggest that steroids do anything to significantly boost a player’s performance. Wyers, to my mind, has demonstrated this quite effectively with his BACON research.

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  71. ACT

    It would be a genuine injustice to have a rule that says anyone who gets caught doing PED’s and let Braun off the hook (assuming he is found guilty). Like the rule or not, it has to be enforced for everyone.

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  72. ACT

    Man, I suck at writing this morning. The first sentence should read: “It would be a genuine injustice to have a rule that says anyone who gets caught doing PED’s gets a 50-day suspension and let Braun off the hook (assuming he is found guilty)

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  73. 26.2cubfan

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]To suppose that steroids, PEDs, etc represent a “genuine injustice” flies in the face of the available evidence. There’s nothing to suggest that steroids do anything to significantly boost a player’s performance. Wyers, to my mind, has demonstrated this quite effectively with his BACON research.[/quote]
    I know there have been several studies that have attempted to show the effect of steroids/hgh/PEDs and have failed to find evidence of a benefit. I don’t quite buy it though – it’s not that I don’t believe in statistical analysis, I just don’t think these studies have measured or controlled in the right way.

    The truth of the matter is that being stronger helps human beings hit baseballs harder or further. That’s why players lift weights. That’s why players today are way the hell better than players from the past (on average). If being stronger didn’t help, the best baseball players in the world, with the best advisers, nutritionists, strength coaches, and doctors money can buy would stop trying to increase their strength by lifting weights. The fact that steroids helps a player do this means they enhance performance. If there are rules that say you can’t gain an advantage in this way, then players who are side-stepping or ignoring those rules are gaining an unfair, unjust advantage.

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  74. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=26.2cubfan]I know there have been several studies that have attempted to show the effect of steroids/hgh/PEDs and have failed to find evidence of a benefit. I don’t quite buy it though – it’s not that I don’t believe in statistical analysis, I just don’t think these studies have measured or controlled in the right way.

    The truth of the matter is that being stronger helps human beings hit baseballs harder or further. That’s why players lift weights. That’s why players today are way the hell better than players from the past (on average). If being stronger didn’t help, the best baseball players in the world, with the best advisers, nutritionists, strength coaches, and doctors money can buy would stop trying to increase their strength by lifting weights. The fact that steroids helps a player do this means they enhance performance. If there are rules that say you can’t gain an advantage in this way, then players who are side-stepping or ignoring those rules are gaining an unfair, unjust advantage.[/quote]Offering tautologies doesn’t help the case. These aren’t magic beans. They are drugs that increase strength and increased strength only helps when combined exceptional ability. If there is a benefit, it’s likely minimal and only available to players who are already pretty fucking good.

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  75. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=ACT]It would be a genuine injustice to have a rule that says anyone who gets caught doing PED’s and let Braun off the hook (assuming he is found guilty). Like the rule or not, it has to be enforced for everyone.[/quote]Agreed. If Manny went away for 50 games, the Braun should, too. I just think the giddiness and moral outrage over this issue is wholly misplaced.

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  76. ACT

    Yeah, the only outrage I’m feeling now is for whoever leaked the story before the verdict was in. If he is guilty, I’d be disappointed but not angry.

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  77. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]Right, it’s unfair, but everyone should be on the same playing field as far as rules are concerned. That is, people who break the rules should not have an advantage over those who don’t. People who are caught doctoring balls, corking bats, bribing or threatening umpires, using illegal sign-stealing, and, yes, using banned substances are trying to get a dishonest advantage to themselves and should be punished.[/quote]I don’t disagree, but I don’t care if a pitcher is doctoring the balls and I don’t care if a batter or team is stealing signs. Punish them. I agree. It’s against the rules, but I don’t care about it.

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  78. mb21

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]To suppose that steroids, PEDs, etc represent a “genuine injustice” flies in the face of the available evidence. There’s nothing to suggest that steroids do anything to significantly boost a player’s performance. Wyers, to my mind, has demonstrated this quite effectively with his BACON research.[/quote]Tango did too when he looked at home run rates a few years back on THT. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/changes-in-home-run-rates-during-the-retrosheet-years/

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  79. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]It would be a genuine injustice to have a rule that says anyone who gets caught doing PED’s and let Braun off the hook (assuming he is found guilty). Like the rule or not, it has to be enforced for everyone.[/quote]I agree. I’m not saying he shouldn’t be. The players voted on this so they should be punished. The players have also agreed to be punished when using corked bats though there is no scientific evidence that suggests it helps. My main point isn’t that I don’t think they should punished, but rather I couldn’t care less who cheats or how they do so. But if they get caught, they get punished. They agreed to it.

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  80. mb21

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Agreed. If Manny went away for 50 games, the Braun should, too. I just think the giddiness and moral outrage over this issue is wholly misplaced.[/quote]I agree. I briefly started looking into how different PED use is viewed in baseball and football and then gave up. Nobody gives a shit when an NFL player is busted and its use if far more prevalent. Eventually it will be the same way in baseball, but we’re not there yet and I look forward to the day we are. I don’t know who the last NFL player to test positive was and don’t care, but do a google search for his name and Ryan Braun’s. I’d even bet that you can find more google hits for a minor leaguer who tested positive for PEDs than you would for that NFL player.

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  81. mb21

    I know there have been several studies that have attempted to show the effect of steroids/hgh/PEDs and have failed to find evidence of a benefit. I don’t quite buy it though – it’s not that I don’t believe in statistical analysis, I just don’t think these studies have measured or controlled in the right way.

    Even if we accept your argument (and I do to some extent), how much it affects it is the question. Read that link I posted earlier. You’ve got a lot of variables in play. Home run rates went up in 1993. That was the year you had Florida and Colorado join the league (Coors Field home run derby). All you basically have to do is reduce the distance of a home run by 8.7 feet to get the same home run rate of about 3% that people expect. And this:

    The Major League balls are manufactured in Costa Rica and have a compressed cork sphere per the specifications. The Minor League balls are manufactured in China and have a cork center as specified in “1996 Minor League Baseball Proposal”. This cork center is the likely source for the decrease in performance, which results in a comparable Minor League ball hit of 391.8 ft under the same conditions as the Major League balls. Small samples of 1998 MLB baseballs were also tested. The 1998 MLB baseball had a comparable batted-ball distance of 400.5 ft.

    There’s your 8 feet.

    The point is that there are many other factors. Smaller fields, expansion (4 new teams), the way the balls are made and other factors. For example, in 2006 there were 1400 just enough home runs (cleared the fence by 0-10 feet). At a clearance of 8.7 feet, nearly 200 fewer home runs would have been hit.

    The problem I have with arguments about how good steroids makes someone is it always ignores other factors. I don’t think any factor should be ignored because they all contribute to the increase in home runs.

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  82. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]Yeah, the only outrage I’m feeling now is for whoever leaked the story before the verdict was in. If he is guilty, I’d be disappointed but not angry.[/quote]I’m pissed at whoever leaked the story, but I won’t be disappointed or outraged if it’s true. As the great Dusty Baker always said, it is what it is. Players cheat and they’ll continue to cheat. They’ll continue to steal signs, throw at a batter’s head (that’s cheating to me) and take steroids. Not to mention, pitchers take the shit too so really, what kind of an unfair advantage is there?

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  83. mb21

    And in the end, I believe that’s what it’s all about. Baseball fans want to see an on-field product where there’s a level playing field. If a player is naturally more talented than another, he should perform better, not because he is artificially enhanced. – Al Yellon: http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/12/11/2628106/ryan-braun-positive-ped-test-real-fallout/in/2391077

    I know ACT brought it up, but I really don’t understand the fascination baseball fans have with a level playing field. As adults I think we know that people cheat and steal to better themselves without regard for those they’re passing. We unfortunately accept this behavior most of the time, but when it comes to a baseball player doing it, we’re outraged. I don’t get it. Life isn’t fair. Life doesn’t have a level playing field. I don’t know why sports should.

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  84. mb21

    [quote name=26.2cubfan]They’ve got a source![/quote](dying laughing)

    Thought it was interesting though. All we know so far is that he supposedly tested positive and that MLB hasn’t even released any info yet. I’m skeptical of both reports.

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  85. 26.2cubfan

    [quote name=mb21]There’s your 8 feet.

    The point is that there are many other factors. Smaller fields, expansion (4 new teams), the way the balls are made and other factors. For example, in 2006 there were 1400 just enough home runs (cleared the fence by 0-10 feet). At a clearance of 8.7 feet, nearly 200 fewer home runs would have been hit.

    The problem I have with arguments about how good steroids makes someone is it always ignores other factors. I don’t think any factor should be ignored because they all contribute to the increase in home runs.[/quote]
    Agreed. There are a large number of variables that determine the number of home runs hit in a season – ball density, changes to park sizes and wall heights, weather, etc… I’m not saying that PEDs are the only thing that influenced HR rates in a given year, or over a period of time. What I do believe is that the use of PEDs enhanced performance (thus the name). Players wouldn’t take them if they didn’t think they helped. And players wouldn’t think they helped if they didn’t have some very knowledgeable people trying to convince them to do so.

    You have to be among the greatest baseball players in the world to make the bigs. if you’re already one of those players, taking PEDs makes you a tiny bit better. On the margins of baseball talent, that tiny bit can be worth millions of dollars. Taking these substances is a financial choice for these players, and it involves a great deal of risk. if they get caught, it hurts their value. If they don’t, some of them seem to believe it’s worth the risk.

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  86. mb21

    Players wouldn’t take them if they didn’t think they helped. And players wouldn’t think they helped if they didn’t have some very knowledgeable people trying to convince them to do so.

    Moises Alou peed on his hands because he thought it made him grip the bat better. Players say prayers to the man in the sky. They wear necklaces for good luck thinking it makes them play better. They wear the same jock for 8 days in a row during a winning streak thinking it helps them win. Players are dumber than shit. They think all kinds of things help when in fact it doesn’t. I do believe players believe PEDs help. They may help a little and probably help a lot more than the necklaces and pointing the sky that these guys do. It helps more than jumping over the chalk so you’re not stepping on a line (a crack). However, if we say steroids help because the players think they do then we also have to accept that peeing on one’s hand gives an unfair advantage, wearing the same jock day after day without washing it does too and wearing necklaces, a certain bracelet, or whatever else these guys do that they think helps them is also an unfair advantage.

    Personally, I don’t care what the players think. The fact they think wearing necklaces and wearing dirty clothes helps them win is enough for me to never ever consider what they say as anything more than entertainment.

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  87. 26.2cubfan

    [quote name=26.2cubfan]Agreed. There are a large number of variables that determine the number of home runs hit in a season – ball density, changes to park sizes and wall heights, weather, etc… I’m not saying that PEDs are the only thing that influenced HR rates in a given year, or over a period of time. What I do believe is that the use of PEDs enhanced performance (thus the name). Players wouldn’t take them if they didn’t think they helped. And players wouldn’t think they helped if they didn’t have some very knowledgeable people trying to convince them to do so.

    [/quote]
    That, and I think there are just as many pitchers using as there are hitters. And the effect isn’t only on strength, it’s also on recovery. It’s a complex issue. But to say that using doesn’t give players an advantage over players who don’t is unrealistic.

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  88. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]Moises Alou peed on his hands because he thought it made him grip the bat better. Players say prayers to the man in the sky. They wear necklaces for good luck thinking it makes them play better. They wear the same jock for 8 days in a row during a winning streak thinking it helps them win. Players are dumber than shit. They think all kinds of things help when in fact it doesn’t. I do believe players believe PEDs help. They may help a little and probably help a lot more than the necklaces and pointing the sky that these guys do. It helps more than jumping over the chalk so you’re not stepping on a line (a crack). However, if we say steroids help because the players think they do then we also have to accept that peeing on one’s hand gives an unfair advantage, wearing the same jock day after day without washing it does too and wearing necklaces, a certain bracelet, or whatever else these guys do that they think helps them is also an unfair advantage.

    Personally, I don’t care what the players think. The fact they think wearing necklaces and wearing dirty clothes helps them win is enough for me to never ever consider what they say as anything more than entertainment.[/quote]THIS x ∞

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  89. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=26.2cubfan]That, and I think there are just as many pitchers using as there are hitters. And the effect isn’t only on strength, it’s also on recovery. It’s a complex issue. But to say that using doesn’t give players an advantage over players who don’t is unrealistic.[/quote]It’s really a great example of the hypocrisy of the sainted writers that pitchers have been entirely absent from the PED discourse.

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  90. mb21

    You have to be among the greatest baseball players in the world to make the bigs. if you’re already one of those players, taking PEDs makes you a tiny bit better. On the margins of baseball talent, that tiny bit can be worth millions of dollars. Taking these substances is a financial choice for these players, and it involves a great deal of risk. if they get caught, it hurts their value. If they don’t, some of them seem to believe it’s worth the risk.

    The fact it is a risk precisely why I don’t care. It’s a calculated risk. Player A has chosen that steroids will earn him more money despite it also potentially costing him money. Player B chooses to use steroids because he wants to be popular even though it may make him hated. What does piss me off is that Ryan Braun is forever going to be linked to the positive steroid test even if it’s proven false. I don’t care if a player takes a steroid because whatever positive that may come out of it, I’m confident the risk doesn’t outweight the reward. Steroids destroy a person’s body. How many of these steroid users missed playing time in the field because of it? How much money did that cost them? How much money did it cost them to have been associated with steroids? So if some player wants to go for the benefit then I think he’s an idiot. More than likely it’s only going to cost him these days.

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  91. 26.2cubfan

    [quote name=mb21]Moises Alou peed on his hands because he thought it made him grip the bat better. Players say prayers to the man in the sky. They wear necklaces for good luck thinking it makes them play better. They wear the same jock for 8 days in a row during a winning streak thinking it helps them win. Players are dumber than shit. They think all kinds of things help when in fact it doesn’t. I do believe players believe PEDs help. They may help a little and probably help a lot more than the necklaces and pointing the sky that these guys do. It helps more than jumping over the chalk so you’re not stepping on a line (a crack). However, if we say steroids help because the players think they do then we also have to accept that peeing on one’s hand gives an unfair advantage, wearing the same jock day after day without washing it does too and wearing necklaces, a certain bracelet, or whatever else these guys do that they think helps them is also an unfair advantage.

    Personally, I don’t care what the players think. The fact they think wearing necklaces and wearing dirty clothes helps them win is enough for me to never ever consider what they say as anything more than entertainment.[/quote]
    Sure, but getting caught wearing dirty socks doesn’t get you suspended for 50 games and lose you 31% of your salary. When there’s a financial risk involved, players are more likely to act rationally.

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  92. mb21

    [quote name=26.2cubfan]That, and I think there are just as many pitchers using as there are hitters. And the effect isn’t only on strength, it’s also on recovery. It’s a complex issue. But to say that using doesn’t give players an advantage over players who don’t is unrealistic.[/quote]I think it can give them an advantage, but gaining an advantage is what sports is about. We can talk about whether it should be entirely talent based, but my point is that I don’t care how those advantages are achieved.

    That being said, it’s against the rules and if someone is caught he should be penalized. In fact, I’m for much harsher penalties. If I was MLB I would turn the positive test over the federal government and let them investigate and prosecute. It’s not just against the rules in baseball, it’s an illegal act. If someone beats someone half to death on the baseball field, the player doesn’t just get suspended. He did something illegal and law enforcement will get involved. This is and always has been, in my opinion, a law enforcement issue and not a baseball issue.

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  93. Mish

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]It’s really a great example of the hypocrisy of the sainted writers that pitchers have been entirely absent from the PED discourse.[/quote]
    This.

    Also, the whole outrage arises from the perceived sanctimony of baseball’s records, specifically home run related records, right? There’s another layer of hypocrisy there, as these are likely the same people telling us to close our fagety spreadsheets and watch a game.

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  94. mb21

    [quote name=26.2cubfan]Sure, but getting caught wearing dirty socks doesn’t get you suspended for 50 games and lose you 31% of your salary. When there’s a financial risk involved, players are more likely to act rationally.[/quote]But we can’t know what the financial risk really is. How many top young prospects took steroids hoping for not a big payday, but a huge one only to find themselves on the DL year after year because of it? How many of those top prospects never even made it to the big leagues? We don’t know that and until we do we can’t say the financial risk is even worth it. i don’t think it is. If we asked Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds if it was worth it I think they would say no (if they were being honest). I’d even bet A-Rod would say the same thing. These are 3 of the greatest players to have ever played the game. I don’t think one of them would consider their decisions to have been worth it.

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  95. mb21

    [quote name=Mish]This.

    Also, the whole outrage arises from the perceived sanctimony of baseball’s records, specifically home run related records, right? There’s another layer of hypocrisy there, as these are likely the same people telling us to close our fagety spreadsheets and watch a game.[/quote]It’s been my belief for a long time this has been about records (the home run record). This isn’t true for all fans. 26.2 and ACT haven’t brought up records once, which makes it easy to discuss the topic with them. But for many fans and especially the sportswriters this is about the record book.

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  96. ACT

    [quote name=mb21]I know ACT brought it up, but I really don’t understand the fascination baseball fans have with a level playing field.[/quote]It’s the whole point of why most people watch sports. People want to see games played under a certain set of rules. Maybe there are some people who like seeing people win by avoiding the rules, but for the vast majority, it takes away from the game. People want their teams to win by being better at playing (legally) and luckier than their opponents.

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  97. Mish

    [quote name=mb21]It’s been my belief for a long time this has been about records (the home run record). This isn’t true for all fans. 26.2 and ACT haven’t brought up records once, which makes it easy to discuss the topic with them. But for many fans and especially the sportswriters this is about the record book.[/quote]Right. I have your general indifference to these things, but I have little problem with ACT’s argument. It was more directed at the sportswriters.

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  98. 26.2cubfan

    [quote name=mb21]It’s been my belief for a long time this has been about records (the home run record). This isn’t true for all fans. 26.2 and ACT haven’t brought up records once, which makes it easy to discuss the topic with them. But for many fans and especially the sportswriters this is about the record book.[/quote]
    Yeah, I could give a shit about the records. Stats are comparable in the same era, not across eras. I like the history of baseball, and I will admit I get nostalgic about a past I didn’t even experience. Going to Cooperstown isn’t about WAR or ISO. But the game is so different now than it was in the 20s or 50s that it doesn’t mean anything to look at players across different eras. Records don’t matter to me as a result.

    I was looking at all-time WAR on BP today and was amused how many of them were in the 1800s. I guess replacement level was a little different then when only white factory guys in a few towns were playing….

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  99. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=ACT]It’s the whole point of why most people watch sports. People want to see games played under a certain set of rules. Maybe there are some people who like seeing people win by avoiding the rules, but for the vast majority, it takes away from the game. People want their teams to win by being better at playing (legally) and luckier than their opponents.[/quote]And I take MB’s point to be that the game has never been played by such a set of rules, so to pine for it is entirely quixotic.

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  100. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]It’s the whole point of why most people watch sports. People want to see games played under a certain set of rules. Maybe there are some people who like seeing people win by avoiding the rules, but for the vast majority, it takes away from the game. People want their teams to win by being better at playing (legally) and luckier than their opponents.[/quote]I think we’d all like that, but actually expecting it is naive. I don’t watch sports because they’re fair. I watch baseball because I love the game (fair or not) and I watch college football because I love the Iowa Hawkeyes and as a result have a lot of interest in CFB as a whole.

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  101. Urk

    I realize that arguing with Al’s points is like shooting fish in a barrel, but this whole widespread idea about the game being about “natural” talent levels is just absurd. How “natural’ is it for major league pitchers to be running around with pieces of their knee tendons in their elbows?

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  102. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=Urk]I realize that arguing with Al’s points is like shooting fish in a barrel, but this whole widespread idea about the game being about “natural” talent levels is just absurd. How “natural’ is it for major league pitchers to be running around with pieces of their knee tendons in their elbows?[/quote]Or shooting themselves so full of cortisone (a “steroid,” BTW, although not the anabolic variety) that they can play with an injury.

    Cortisone is a PED. It enhances one’s performance by allowing a player to play when he has an injury that would normally sideline a “regular” player. It makes for an uneven playing field. And yet it’s part of the sports lingo, as common a term as at-bat or hit. And it’s a PED. Plain and simple.

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  103. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]The fact it is a risk precisely why I don’t care. It’s a calculated risk. Player A has chosen that steroids will earn him more money despite it also potentially costing him money.

    Steroids destroy a person’s body.

    So if some player wants to go for the benefit then I think he’s an idiot. More than likely it’s only going to cost him these days.[/quote]I think that’s actually a good reason to have a rule and stick to it: players don’t want there to feel like they have to take risks like that in order to compete.

    It’s a lot like what happened with hockey helmets:

    http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2007/07/23/070723ta_talk_surowiecki

    Back in the nineteen-seventies, an economist named Thomas Schelling, who later won the Nobel Prize, noticed something peculiar about the N.H.L. At the time, players were allowed, but not required, to wear helmets, and most players chose to go helmet-less, despite the risk of severe head trauma. But when they were asked in secret ballots most players also said that the league should require them to wear helmets. The reason for this conflict, Schelling explained, was that not wearing a helmet conferred a slight advantage on the ice; crucially, it gave the player better peripheral vision, and it also made him look fearless. The players wanted to have their heads protected, but as individuals they couldn’t afford to jeopardize their effectiveness on the ice. Making helmets compulsory eliminated the dilemma: the players could protect their heads without suffering a competitive disadvantage. Without the rule, the players’ individually rational decisions added up to a collectively irrational result. With the rule, the outcome was closer to what players really wanted.

    .

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  104. mb21

    [quote name=Urk]I realize that arguing with Al’s points is like shooting fish in a barrel, but this whole widespread idea about the game being about “natural” talent levels is just absurd. How “natural’ is it for major league pitchers to be running around with pieces of their knee tendons in their elbows?[/quote]Agreed. It’s an accepted practice today, but in the early part of last century would have been absurd. This is another reason why I don’t care about steroids. In 50 or 100 years steroids will be safer and more commonly used. If safe one would presume they would be banned in baseball. Taking a Tylenol can eliminate a headache, which is likely to affect the performance of a player. We don’t have issues with that and I don’t expect we’ll have issues with steroids in sports in 50 or 100 years.

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  105. mb21

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Or shooting themselves so full of cortisone (a “steroid,” BTW, although not the anabolic variety) that they can play with an injury.

    Cortisone is a PED. It enhances one’s performance by allowing a player to play when he has an injury that would normally sideline a “regular” player. It makes for an uneven playing field. And yet it’s part of the sports lingo, as common a term as at-bat or hit. And it’s a PED. Plain and simple.[/quote]Yeah, there are all kinds of things that are actually PEDs, but aren’t called that. Anything to alleviate pain is. It keeps the player on the field and it gets the player’s mind off the pain so he can focus more.

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  106. mb21

    I think that’s actually a good reason to have a rule and stick to it: players don’t want there to feel like they have to take risks like that in order to compete.

    I’m fine with the rule. I’m glad baseball has one since steroids are not yet a safe drug. I believe it’s MLB’s responsibility to protect the health of their employees in the same ways other business are required to. I don’t have a problem with the rule. As I mentioned, my penalty for using would be even stricter than the current one, but I’d also extend that rule to cover all ways to cheat. Spitting on a baseball led to the deadball era. It makes the game far more unfair than taking some steroids. If this is about fairness then that should be punished more (not less) than steroids.

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  107. Berselius

    msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Ryan-Braun-positive-drug-test-possible-50-game-suspension-121111

    this could get more interesting

    Baseball was rocked Saturday by an ESPN report that reigning National League MVP Ryan Braun has tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs.

    A source close to Braun, however, said Sunday that although the player tested positive for a prohibited substance, that substance was not a performance-enhancing drug.

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  108. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=Berselius]I wonder what isn’t a PED but still elevates testosterone like that[/quote]

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  109. Berselius

    [quote name=Berselius]

    this could get more interesting[/quote]
    Well, maybe not as interesting as I thought. I misread the headline I saw thinking it said it was a mlb-provided substance instead of mlb-prohibited. Reading fail (dying laughing)

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  110. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]I’m fine with the rule. I’m glad baseball has one since steroids are not yet a safe drug. I believe it’s MLB’s responsibility to protect the health of their employees in the same ways other business are required to. I don’t have a problem with the rule. As I mentioned, my penalty for using would be even stricter than the current one, but I’d also extend that rule to cover all ways to cheat. Spitting on a baseball led to the deadball era. It makes the game far more unfair than taking some steroids. If this is about fairness then that should be punished more (not less) than steroids.[/quote]Well, the point is that steroids are more dangerous to players’ health than spitballs (not counting that guy who died from a HBP, since that ball had a lot more than spit on it, (dying laughing)).

    But yeah, I basically agree with you. But I also kind of don’t see what the big deal is here. If Braun actually broke the rules to gain a competitive advantage, fair enough to think less of him, the same way I think less of Matt Holliday for running halfway into center field in order to put his spikes into the zillion-dollar legs of a 20-year-old who’s trying to stay out of the fishing business.

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  111. fang2415

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder][/quote]Well, it’s not like Braun was smoking enough weed to prevent him from holding his eyes really, really wide open.

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  112. mb21

    [quote name=fang2415]Well, the point is that steroids are more dangerous to players’ health than spitballs (not counting that guy who died from a HBP, since that ball had a lot more than spit on it, (dying laughing)).

    But yeah, I basically agree with you. But I also kind of don’t see what the big deal is here. If Braun actually broke the rules to gain a competitive advantage, fair enough to think less of him, the same way I think less of Matt Holliday for running halfway into center field in order to put his spikes into the zillion-dollar legs of a 20-year-old who’s trying to stay out of the fishing business.[/quote]But rarely does any person talk about the health issues when they argue that steroids are the evilest thing on earth. If someone argues that they should be banned because of how bad they are then I have nothing to say other than “I agree.” If someone is instead arguing about it from the perspective of what the player accomplished then I don’t. Tango put it best the other day when he pointed out that as sports fans we’re selfish. We call certain players on the Cubs “our players.” Pujols, to Cardinals fans, was their player. We think the game is more pure than it is. We think it should be more pure. What we don’t consider is what the players want, or in fact what they did not want until recently.

    The players supported the penalties and therefore any player who tests positive should be suspended. He should not be anymore despised than an alcoholic is. These are young people and they make mistakes.

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  113. mb21

    And FWIW, I don’t think any less of Holliday after that slide just as I don’t think any less of Bonds, A-Rod and now Braun. The reason for this is relatively simple. I can’t hold them to standards I’m simply unwilling to hold Cubs players to. I might be disappointed if Marlon Byrd slid in the manner that Holliday did, but I’d forget about it in about 7 minutes. I’d tell people who bring it up to stop complaining. I’d more than likely argue it wasn’t a dirty slide.

    I was a huge Sosa fan for a long time as many others were and there’s just no way that steroids or leaving the final day of the season is changing that opinion. I’ve been a huge Zambrano fan since 2003 and I’ve defended him and defended him. I’d not have done that if Zambrano was a Cardinal. I’d probably call him the same names that Cardinals and Brewers fans do. I won’t care if Castro tries to take a SS out even if it’s dirty because that’s but one play out of the hundreds I hope to enjoy.

    I’m a big fan of Ryan Braun and will remain one. I’ve enjoyed watching him hit baseballs a long way since he came up. He makes many things look easy and I love that. Since I’m not willing to treat Cubs fans the same as I might a player on another team I do my best to say as little about other players as I can.

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  114. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]If someone is instead arguing about it from the perspective of what the player accomplished then I don’t.

    We think the game is more pure than it is. We think it should be more pure. What we don’t consider is what the players want, or in fact what they did not want until recently.[/quote]
    Yeah. I do think it’s okay to want sports to be “fair” in the sense that whatever rules are agreed upon should apply equally. But I think the best point for your “this is bullshit” argument is that what people care about is neither competitive fairness nor health, but Roger Maris’s time-honored record. And that is bullshit.

    He should not be anymore despised than an alcoholic is. These are young people and they make mistakes.

    Not sure if I buy that, because nobody’s getting mloaded for a competitive advantage. Nobody (except possibly Piniella) gave a shit when Soto got caught smoking some weed, because if anything it made him worse at baseball. It might have been a problem for Soto, but it wasn’t helping him at the expense of anybody else.

    Agree that people make mistakes though. IMO even if the facts show that Braun knowingly used, he should serve his suspension and that’s that.

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  115. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=Berselius](dying laughing)wut

    “ESPN has shown the rest of journalism how an accountable news organization works.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/post/with-bernie-fine-story-espn-is-a-model-of-accountability/2011/12/09/gIQAmzbNiO_blog.html#pagebreak%5B/quote%5DYeah. The children molested while ESPN suppressed evidence of Bernie Fine’s pederasty might have something to say about that.

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  116. mb21

    Not sure if I buy that, because nobody’s getting mloaded for a competitive advantage. Nobody (except possibly Piniella) gave a shit when Soto got caught smoking some weed, because if anything it made him worse at baseball. It might have been a problem for Soto, but it wasn’t helping him at the expense of anybody else.

    The point is that young people are more likely to make poor decisions. It doesn’t excuse the behavior, but it might help explain it. We’re not talking about 40 and 50 year olds in sports. Unless we’re talking about Jamie Moyer. (dying laughing)

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  117. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]And FWIW, I don’t think any less of Holliday after that slide just as I don’t think any less of Bonds, A-Rod and now Braun. The reason for this is relatively simple. I can’t hold them to standards I’m simply unwilling to hold Cubs players to. I might be disappointed if Marlon Byrd slid in the manner that Holliday did, but I’d forget about it in about 7 minutes. I’d tell people who bring it up to stop complaining. I’d more than likely argue it wasn’t a dirty slide.

    I was a huge Sosa fan for a long time as many others were and there’s just no way that steroids or leaving the final day of the season is changing that opinion. I’ve been a huge Zambrano fan since 2003 and I’ve defended him and defended him. I’d not have done that if Zambrano was a Cardinal. I’d probably call him the same names that Cardinals and Brewers fans do. I won’t care if Castro tries to take a SS out even if it’s dirty because that’s but one play out of the hundreds I hope to enjoy.

    I’m a big fan of Ryan Braun and will remain one. I’ve enjoyed watching him hit baseballs a long way since he came up. He makes many things look easy and I love that. Since I’m not willing to treat Cubs fans the same as I might a player on another team I do my best to say as little about other players as I can.[/quote](dying laughing) Sometimes it’s hard to believe that you’re a Cubs fan rather than a Yankee fan. (dying laughing)

    Anyway I can see why people get a little bit worked up about this shit but I agree it’s overblown. I like Braun too and probably still will no matter how this comes out.

    I don’t think it’s ever cool to try to injure another player though. IMO that shit should be penalized far worse than rubbing some cream on your skin.

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  118. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]The point is that young people are more likely to make poor decisions. It doesn’t excuse the behavior, but it might help explain it. We’re not talking about 40 and 50 year olds in sports. Unless we’re talking about Jamie Moyer. (dying laughing)[/quote]
    See also, excuses for old people making poor decisions

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  119. mb21

    (dying laughing) Sometimes it’s hard to believe that you’re a Cubs fan rather than a Yankee fan. (dying laughing)

    The Yankees are my second favorite team if that helps you understand. I’m not sure why you’d say that though. What I said was, basically, that I was unwilling to judge other team’s players in ways that I’m not willing to judge Cubs players. I think the primary difference between me in that sense and the average fan is that most fans are willing and even eager to dislike players on other teams for whatever reason. Not that it makes those people wrong or like a left-handed Marlon Byrd, but I think it’s easy to understand. I’m not going to criticize Braun because he has a tendency to enjoy his home runs when Soriano poses for his.

    I don’t think it’s ever cool to try to injure another player though. IMO that shit should be penalized far worse than rubbing some cream on your skin.

    I agree, but where did Holliday say he was trying to hurt Castro? He was trying to break up the double play. He wasn’t trying to hurt him. That it was a poor slide and looked much worse than it was doesn’t mean it was his intention to hurt him. Carlos Zambrano intended to hurt Chipper Jones. Kerry Wood intentionally nailed that one Reds batter in the head. Kyle Farnsworth intended to hurt Paul Wilson and did. I don’t remember any Cubs fans complaining about Farnsworth or Wood. I know I didn’t.

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  120. mb21

    When I think of a player trying to hurt someone I think of Pedro pointing to his head. Pedro threw Zim to the ground. Despite that, he’s one of my favorite pitchers of all-time.

    When Gary Matthews, Jr. came up to the Cubs I remember a game when he was coming around 3rd base and there was going to be a play at the plate. I saw him lay what has easily been the best hit on a catcher I’ve seen in my life. It was almost like he went airborne halfway between 3rd and home. The ball came loose and Sarge, Jr. scored the go ahead run. I’m not the biggest fan of taking catchers out, but that was awesome. (dying laughing)

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  121. fang2415

    The Yankees are my second favorite team if that helps you understand. I’m not sure why you’d say that though.

    I mostly just meant that you don’t care much what a team does or how even the playing field is as long as they beat the living shit out of whoever they’re playing (in the score, I mean, not physically (dying laughing)).

    As for the part that is about beating people up physically (dying laughing), you could be right about intentional HBPs, although it does depend on the details and I don’t remember the specific circumstances around those. I think most HBPs are actually less dangerous than a bad slide though, since the fielder’s unprotected ankle can snap pretty easy. Mind you, with stuff like that, the players themselves tend to enforce the rules pretty strictly, usually by simply drilling the guy at the next opportunity. I still think Holliday’s going to get a low throw in the teeth from a shortstop one of these days.

    Also, Z’s throw at Chipper Jones wasn’t in any particularly dangerous area, and Cubs fans haven’t exactly forgotten about that one…

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  122. fang2415

    Also, I think one can split hairs quite a bit about which possibly-injury-inducing stuff is okay and which isn’t. But my point is that on the scale of assholedom, (rule-breaking that hurts only you) < (rule-breaking that puts others at a disadvantage relative to you) < (rule-breaking that actively harms others).

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  123. Mercurial Outfielder

    If Tebow could throw a ball accurately and Denaryius Thomas could catch, the Bears would be down 7-0.

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  124. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Berselius]Aaron Rodgers is playing at a secret difficulty level below “rookie” on Madden[/quote]That interception must have been a random event generated by the game’s “WTF” code.

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  125. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/11/ryan-brauns-testosterone-levels-were-insanely-high-says-source-familiar-with-the-case?utm_source=dlvr.it[/quote]Sources close to Jerry Sandusky suggest the evidence against him is too ridiculous to take seriously.

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  126. mb21

    I mostly just meant that you don’t care much what a team does or how even the playing field is as long as they beat the living shit out of whoever they’re playing (in the score, I mean, not physically (dying laughing)).

    I just don’t need a level playing field. I’ve been consistent with that over the years. It just doesn’t matter to me. It’s probably why I like baseball so much and couldn’t care less about the NFL. The NFL has achieved so much parity that 90% of the league is within a tenth of a game of one another in true talent. The NBA has no parity at all and that’s as ridiculous as the NFL. Baseball has found the perfect middle ground.

    [quote name=fang2415]Also, I think one can split hairs quite a bit about which possibly-injury-inducing stuff is okay and which isn’t. But my point is that on the scale of assholedom, (rule-breaking that hurts only you) < (rule-breaking that puts others at a disadvantage relative to you) < (rule-breaking that actively harms others).[/quote]
    I agree with what you’re saying, but much of it isn’t actually against the rules. Taking the fielder out at 2nd base isn’t technically against the rules. I actually don’t mind that stuff. Those runners out of the baseline should be called out and other than that I don’t have a problem with it. The issue I have is at home plate and in order to stop that you need an entirely new rule. You can’t protect the catcher while allowing him to block the base. An easy solution is to make plays at the plate force plays. There’s no reason for a catcher to be in the runner’s way and there’s no reason for the runner to take him out. As the current rule exists, catchers beg the runner to take them out. I think you probably sympathize with the catcher. I don’t. I believe it’s catchers who have created this situation by blocking the plate. I have sympathy for individual catchers who get hurt, but not the position in general. If I’m Buster Posey I’m demanding that other catchers never get in the baseline again. He was taken out because so many catchers are in the baseline. Runners have been trained to think that the catcher is going to block the plate.

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  127. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ken-davidoff-s-baseball-insider-1.1278117/more-on-ryan-braun-1.3382045[/quote]
    $$$

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  128. Mercurial Outfielder

    1. This is the first time that such a big name’s failed drug test became public well before the matter’s resolution. Good job by ESPN. But now we’re going to have to wait a while.

    Yeah. Big kudos on the unwarranted and probably illegal invasion of privacy.

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  129. Rice Cube

    1. This is the first time that such a big name’s failed drug test became public well before the matter’s resolution. Good job by ESPN. But now we’re going to have to wait a while.

    (dying laughing)

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  130. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=Rice Cube]How are the Bears out of timeouts already?[/quote]Roy Williams and Devin Hester don’t know where to line up and have forced Hanie to burn two, other was because of Okoye’s injury.

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  131. Berselius

    Wait, did the Bears just call a TO to give DEN a chance to challenge that play? Sure looked like that ball hit the ground on the replay.

    Guess my eyes are lyin’

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  132. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=GBTS]Pretty cool how the Bears were able to encapsulate exactly what it’s like to be a Cub fan in the span of 10 minutes.[/quote]How mad and ragey are Doug and OB?

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  133. fang2415

    [quote name=Rice Cube]This is kind of interesting:

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/12/11/2625991/traditional-managing-index-results-2011-nl

    As much crap as Quade got, he actually called less sac bunts by position players and less IBBs than the average NL manager. Naturally the pitcher autobunts so I guess that’s why those weren’t counted.[/quote]Yeah, I didn’t think Quade was too bad tactically. I actually think he was worse in terms of managing personalities (both players and press) than he was in terms of in-game strategy. Maybe he could have done better with using the bullpen. But other than that… he was just kind of lame, really.

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  134. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]I agree with what you’re saying, but much of it isn’t actually against the rules. Taking the fielder out at 2nd base isn’t technically against the rules. I actually don’t mind that stuff. Those runners out of the baseline should be called out and other than that I don’t have a problem with it. The issue I have is at home plate and in order to stop that you need an entirely new rule. You can’t protect the catcher while allowing him to block the base. An easy solution is to make plays at the plate force plays. There’s no reason for a catcher to be in the runner’s way and there’s no reason for the runner to take him out. As the current rule exists, catchers beg the runner to take them out. I think you probably sympathize with the catcher. I don’t. I believe it’s catchers who have created this situation by blocking the plate. I have sympathy for individual catchers who get hurt, but not the position in general. If I’m Buster Posey I’m demanding that other catchers never get in the baseline again. He was taken out because so many catchers are in the baseline. Runners have been trained to think that the catcher is going to block the plate.[/quote]Actually, I agree with you. The only reason I think that Holliday play was bullshit was because he was so far out of the basepath. And I loved Billy Beane ordering Kurt Suzuki to swipe every tag at home because he didn’t want him getting injured.

    Basepaths are the runners’ property. Fielders know that and if they don’t respect it they’re taking their chances, and same with runners off the basepaths. It’s when players go out of their way to injure others in places they aren’t allowed to be that pisses me off.

    Catchers were only ever an exception because they wear armor, but I agree that that’s not enough. The rules of tagging people at home should be the same as at any other base.

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  135. mb21

    I watched the Holliday play about 46 dozen times and I don’t think he was out of the base paths. He could reach 2nd base and that’s supposedly what they go by. The issue with that slide was his leg being elevated. One thing that infielders can do to baserunners is they can throw the ball right at them. I think it was Jeter who got nailed right in the fact by a shortstop several years back because he was in the base paths and the SS was trying to turn two. I bet it was the last time Jeter ever didn’t slide or get the fuck out the base path. Maybe it was Jeter who threw the ball. I don’t really remember. I know Jeter was involved. Next time Holliday does something like that the shortstop needs to make Holliday pay. He won’t do it again.

    That’s the type of play where I’m perfectly happy allowing the players to police the game the way they see fit.

    that’s just me though.

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  136. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]I watched the Holliday play about 46 dozen times and I don’t think he was out of the base paths. He could reach 2nd base and that’s supposedly what they go by. The issue with that slide was his leg being elevated. One thing that infielders can do to baserunners is they can throw the ball right at them. I think it was Jeter who got nailed right in the fact by a shortstop several years back because he was in the base paths and the SS was trying to turn two. I bet it was the last time Jeter ever didn’t slide or get the fuck out the base path. Maybe it was Jeter who threw the ball. I don’t really remember. I know Jeter was involved. Next time Holliday does something like that the shortstop needs to make Holliday pay. He won’t do it again.

    That’s the type of play where I’m perfectly happy allowing the players to police the game the way they see fit.

    that’s just me though.[/quote]Yeah, I remember disagreeing with you about that at the time (dying laughing). As I remember seeing it, Holliday didn’t start his slide until he was past second, i.e., out of the basepath. He did the same shit against Andrus during the series.

    I think the umps should call that kind of crap so that you don’t start getting revenge killings between players, but I agree that if the umps won’t do anything, player enforcement is fair game. I loved it that Beltre “accidentally” put his foot where Holliday’s injured hand slid into third after that Andrus play.

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  137. fang2415

    Just watched the Holliday play again. When it happened I was listening to the WGN audio so I hadn’t heard McCarver’s call before now that the play was legal, and I disagree with him too. I think it’s unlikely Holliday could’ve touched the base on that play, but more important, the runner has a responsibility to slide into the base and Holliday didn’t until he was past it. If it’s a borderline call the umps should err on the side of player safety, and if they don’t call it, Holliday should be drilled at the next opportunity, no question.

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  138. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]I think it was Jeter who got nailed right in the fact by a shortstop several years back because he was in the base paths and the SS was trying to turn two.[/quote]Also, right on. Fuck them and their facts. (dying laughing)

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  139. FonteYES

    Fucking bears…..

    Marion Barber can blow me, what,an awful running back.

    I was telling everyone at work when Cutler went down the season was over, but they all said “Haine will do fine look at the NFC championship gams”.

    Oh and fuck Haine too! Ffffffffffuuuuuiuuicccccckkkkkkk.

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  140. Dr. Aneus Taint

    GB ——> home-field throughout
    NO ——–> first-round bye
    SF —————-> one and done in the playoffs
    NYG —————————–> best chance to upset GB and rep the NFC in ther Super Bowl
    ATL ————————-> Who fuckin’ cares?
    DET ———————————————-> fagets
    CHI —————————————————————> ??????

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  141. WaLi

    [quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]GB ——> home-field throughout
    NO ——–> first-round bye
    SF —————-> one and done in the playoffs
    NYG —————————–> best chance to upset GB and rep the NFC in ther Super Bowl
    ATL ————————-> Who fuckin’ cares?
    DET ———————————————-> fagets
    CHI —————————————————————> ??????[/quote]
    Yeah that about sums it up. I’m kind of glad that the Bears lost so they don’t have to squeak into the playoffs and get our hopes up just to fail miserably.

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  142. work sucks

    Non tender deadline is today. Hopefully we waive a mutilated-hand goodbye to Koy Hill. Also reminds me that I would have thought that a platoon of Baker and DeWitt could do as well as Stewart at 3B. I guess Stewart offers the potential for more power.

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  143. fang2415

    [quote name=work sucks]Non tender deadline is today. Hopefully we waive a mutilated-hand goodbye to Koy Hill. Also reminds me that I would have thought that a platoon of Baker and DeWitt could do as well as Stewart at 3B. I guess Stewart offers the potential for more power.[/quote]A cold feeling in the pit of my stomach is telling me that they’re going to keep Koyie Hill.

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  144. fang2415

    MLBTR lists Gorzelanny as a non-tender candidate. I didn’t realize he was so shitty last year. Once again Hendry looks smart.

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  145. fang2415

    [quote name=fang2415]MLBTR lists Gorzelanny as a non-tender candidate. I didn’t realize he was so shitty last year. Once again Hendry looks smart.[/quote]Now that I look, it’s tough to see why he did have a shitty year. His HR rate was up a little from 2010, but his Ks were up, his BBs were down, his FIP went up slightly (3.92 to 4.19), but his ERA actually dropped (4.09 to 4.03). Not quite as many innings in 2011 (105 vs 136), but it’s hard to see why his fWAR went from 2.2 in 2010 to .7 last year… Did the league get that much better or something?

    Strange that he’d be up for a non-tender. Unless I’m missing something I wouldn’t mind having him back in the rotation over Lopez or even Wells. Do it, Nats.

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  146. Rice Cube

    [quote name=fang2415]Once again Hendry looks smart.[/quote]
    He was a scout for a long time, he might be terrible at the statsy stuff but he might have a sixth sense about who is about to tank…

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  147. mb21

    Remember that fit I threw last week? If they tender Koyie Hill a contract you’re probably thinking I’ll throw an even bigger fit. Nope. That’s the point where I stop caring again.

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  148. ACT

    Gorzelanny upped his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate last year. His flyball rate was problematic, but it’s hard to see why he was non-tendered.

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  149. ACT

    [quote name=fang2415]A cold feeling in the pit of my stomach is telling me that they’re going to keep Koyie Hill.[/quote]Hill was non-tendered.

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  150. Suburban kid 2 or 288

    [quote name=mb21]Remember that fit I threw last week? If they tender Koyie Hill a contract you’re probably thinking I’ll throw an even bigger fit. Nope. That’s the point where I stop caring again.[/quote]Climb back in off the ledge.

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  151. fang2415

    [quote name=ACT]Hill was non-tendered.[/quote]Awesome. Now we can all get back to being pissed off that they didn’t do this a week earlier and keep Flaherty. (dying laughing)

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  152. ACT

    [quote name=fang2415]Is there a list of non-tenders up somewhere? mlbtr still just has its list of “candidates”.[/quote]Ah, I should have read that more carefully. I was just reading the list without reading the description. Sorry for getting everyone’s hopes up. He’ll probably be non-tendered, though.

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  153. fang2415

    [quote name=ACT]Ah, I should have read that more carefully. I was just reading the list without reading the description. Sorry for getting everyone’s hopes up. He’ll probably be non-tendered, though.[/quote]BOOOOOOOOOOOO

    If it doesn’t happen now I’m blaming you. (dying laughing)

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  154. work sucks

    [quote name=fang2415]Is there a list of non-tenders up somewhere? mlbtr still just has its list of “candidates”.[/quote]
    that’s the same thing I’m seeing, potential list only

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