Today is the first day of free agency. The Cubs are linked to many of the top free agents; from Max Scherzer to Jon Lester to David Robertson (wtf). If I’m being completely honest, I hope we miss on all of the top free agent pitchers we are linked to.
My reasoning is very simple. The Cubs have a finite budget with which to build their team. Perhaps it’s as high as $120 million, or as low as $75 million; whatever that number is, the Cubs are way under it. There is, perhaps, a “smoke ’em if you got ’em” mindset to these funds. This seems to me a mistake. The Cubs are expected to compete in 2015, and a great pitcher will help tip the scales in their favor…but only if they are healthy. Having $20 million tied up in Jon Lester for each of the next 6 years doesn’t do you a lot of good if he suddenly gets injured, or becomes ineffective. Add to that the fact that pitchers are precisely the assets most likely to suddenly suffer catastrophic loss, and the proposition becomes very dicey. Having dead weight effects our future payrolls just as much as our current ones.
I won’t pretend we don’t need pitching – we certainly do. I’m comfortable with Arrieta and Hendricks starting next year, and that’s it. Travis Wood, Edwin Jackson, Tsuyoshi Wada, Dallas Beeler, the other 8 random options that currently represent our back-end… they all need to compete for a spot, and I’d be happy if 1 or none of them started a significant number or games for the Cubs next year. Thing is, there are always a dozen or so mid-tier options that provide varying degrees of value. The Cubs happen to be uncommonly good at just this skill; Paul Maholm turned into Arodys Vizcaino, and Jason Hammel more-or-less became Billy McKinney and Dan Straily. Furthermore, even if you take a shot and come up empty (which, remember, is somewhat as likely as missing with Shields or Scherzer or Lester), the difference is a loss of maybe as much as $36 million and as much as $150 million.
It’s also not like the Cubs can’t upgrade elsewhere. No one is talking about Melky Cabrera or Nelson Cruz as a FA target. I don’t understand why not. Cabrera is a great bat that can play LF. He’ll be 31 next year, so he has 4 or 5 years left in the tank. He’s extremely patient, and while he doesn’t hit a ton of home runs, he still has doubles power. He’s even faster than your might think. He’s also a switch-hitter, always a bonus. I won’t pretend to know if he can help Alcantara with that, but who the heck knows? Tim Dierkes of mlbtr predicts 5 years/$70 million. At $6 million a win (and it’s more like $7), he needs to accrue roughly 12 WAR to “earn” his contract. I think that’s feasible, if a small overpay. Nelson Cruz, I like a little less, as he is more suited for DH/1B duty at this point in his career. Still, there are options offensively.
Another option that gets no play (perhaps because it seems inevitable the Giants will re-sign him) is Pablo Sandoval. He’s consistently a guy with a wRC+ in the high 110s, and he plays adequate 3B (though you can envision a move to left in a few years). He’ll probably get a 6-7 year deal at around $18 AAV, but he’s only 28 so you kind of swallow it. I don’t love the move, honestly, but I’d rather sign Sandoval to 7/$126 than Lester to 6/$126, I think.
Lastly, there’s the Kenta Maeda conundrum. Maeda, 26, is probably going to be posted this off-season. He’s (obviously) younger than any of the other options out there, and probably in a lower tier skill-wise. Still, he seems like he’ll be an adequate mid-rotational starter who should still be near-peak when the Cubs truly are the class of the league. There are also other Wada-type flyers that might come over, headlined likely by Orix standout Chihiro Kaneko (we probably have to wait a year or two for Tomoyuki Sugano and a few more for Shohei Otani).
If the Cubs end up with one of the big three pitchers, I won’t be too torn up about it. I like very good baseball players, and I’ll trust that the brain trust has done their due diligence. That said, I’d be happier if the Cubs came away with 2 or 3 Brandon McCarthies or Brett Andersons instead.