It’s June 19th and the Cubs are 69 games into their season. You and I probably picked Anthony Rizzo as the most productive position player on the team through this many games, assuming he remained healthy. I think most everybody would have taken Rizzo and almost no one would have taken Luis Valbuena.
Well, Valbuena has had a surprisingly good start to his 2013 season and has been the most productive offensive player on the team. Valbuena’s 1.6 fWAR is 0.1 ahead of Nate Schierholtz. Raise your hand if you thought Schierholtz would be in the top 2.
The Cubs have received very good production from three players that had no business providing it. Along with Valbuena and Schierholtz, Cody Ransom has 1.2 fWAR and is 3rd among position players. If you would have told me before Opening Day that the Cubs would have 4.3 wins from these three, I’d have said the Cubs would be in contention for a playoff spot.
That’s quite a bit of production from out of nowhere and it’s the kind of thing you see on teams that contend. The Cubs problem hasn’t been the guys who were only expected to stand at their position and be noticed while they bat. It’s been the guys the Cubs are relying on the most to help turn around the franchise.
Anthony Rizzo got off to a fast start, but has since cooled off so much he’s basically been a replacement level player the last couple of months. Those months represent the kind of production that Starlin Castro can only dream about. Darwin Barney has been a replacement level player.
Like most of you here, I have never considered Barney a significant part of the future, but the Cubs have seemed to think he is. They most certainly have considered both Castro and Rizzo a significant part of any future success. It’s unfair to lump these two together at the moment. One has actually been above average while the other has been one of the 4 worst position players in all of baseball this year.
Starlin Castro’s -0.9 fWAR is 4th worst in baseball. It’s only 0.1 less than Scott Hairston who has had 200 fewer plate appearances so if you’re looking for a positive it’s this: At least Castro has been better than Scott fucking Hairston. Carlos Marmol has caught all kinds of shit from people this year and he’s been worth a pathetic -0.7 fWAR. Castro has started to catch a lot of shit at Wrigley and it will only get worse as the season goes on unless Castro improves significantly. Even then, his numbers are likely to be so poor for some time that any out will be seen as a failure.
There’s been a lot of talk about how great the Cubs positional prospects are and there’s some truth to it. However, if Castro and Rizzo don’t improve, it doesn’t really mean a whole lot. The Cubs are hoping to get a little lucky and get a prospect they have or two to work out and add them to a core that includes significant production from Castro and Rizzo. That’s the plan, but so far in 2013 it doesn’t look too good. It’s still early, but Castro especially, he’s been awful.
Castro has already matched his worst UZR and we’re 69 games into the season. He’s been worse on the bases (UBR) than any other season. His offense is so bad it’s probably time to give him a day off and start criticizing Dale Sveum for batting him 2nd.
Rizzo has been significantly better than Castro. He’s posted a .333 wOBA and a 109 wRC+. That’s not much for a first baseman and definitely not what the Cubs were hoping to see from him. However, he has increased his walk rate and has been somewhat unlucky this year. HIs BABIP is only .268 so we should see some regression.
More than any prospect the Cubs have, they need these two to get better. They need Castro to get way better than he has been.
Comments
RIP James Gandolfini
dmick89Quote Reply
BS!
uncle daveQuote Reply
Cardinals broadcast talking about some lining that Cliff Floyd is helping to develop that could be put inside a hat to protect a pitcher’s head.
They already have such a thing.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I think guys like Brandon McCarthy have poo-poo’d those because they find the lining impractical or uncomfortable or whatever. If the pitchers don’t want to do it and they aren’t mandated to do it it’s going to be difficult to keep them safe, unfortunately. But they are interested in something, as long as it is practical, whatever that means. I have no idea since I’m not a pitcher.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I wonder how effective such a helmet would be against the liners that pitchers face. Where in the head do they typically get hit?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I think either the temples or right in the forehead. Though Z got hit in the cheek or the chin in his VZL start last year.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Castro needs a day or three off.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Any evidence that days off can cure slumps?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I think you could just as easily say that Castro needs all the in-game practice he can get.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Who was called out last night for the wide slide? Holliday?
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Shane Robinson, who was pinch-running for Molina.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Damn. Was really hoping to see that Cobra Kai asshat finally get called out for once.
BerseliusQuote Reply
No Cubs win tonight, but more draft signings afoot.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
If you read closely, you see Sully making a not-so-subtle jab at Brett and BN:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0620-marmol-cubs-cardinals-chicago-20130620,0,1435634.story
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydZ704j2QeU
Aisle424Quote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
what’s he say?
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
RynoQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
The paywall is sporadic, but if you can get in, about a third of the way down:
It wasn’t malicious or anything, but it was pointed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
My dog ate another motherfucking rabbit. Unfuckingbelievable. The bitch can’t really see much anymore. She can’t hear much either. She tried her entire life to catch rabbits and now that she’s old, she’s catching one a week. Unreal. This time I heard the screaming from inside and knew what it was, but had to make sure.
It’s fucked up.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
No, but this is more of a slump. He’s just fucking terrible right now and doesn’t deserve to play.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Good old Paula
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Speaking of, did you guys see the Paula Deen stuff? Oy!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Isn’t that the plot of that Meryl Streep/Alec Baldwin movie?
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Tell your dog to stop eating rabbits. I don’t like hearing about it. It sounds so gross. Eww.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I forgot to mention. I had Luis Valbuena in the office pool.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Note: I work in a home office.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Pierce Johnson ——–> Daytona
BerseliusQuote Reply
Trey Masek (5th rd) signed for $357k, which is full slot value.
GWQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I’ve sanitized what happened this time. Consider what I said a bit ago the made for TV movie version of what happened. It’s like Evil Dead 2 being shown on The Family Channel Christmas morning.
dmick89Quote Reply
New Shit
MylesQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
jesus. what kind of dog do you have?
GWQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
For now…
RynoQuote Reply
Just for fun, I decided to look at Alvin’s open letter as an editor. All bits and hyperbole aside, I wanted to see exactly how much bullshit was in there.
Alvin’s original was 2,185 words, and I cut it to 275 without losing any of the context.
What’s funny is that the article was supposed to be an open letter to Epstein. The only thing directed at Epstein was a plea to build a winning team right now. He graciously told Epstein — who obviously would never have been able to concoct such a plan — that they key was to release a reliever and acquire mid-level talent.
The rest of it was a shot at the people who think building a strong farm system is the best plan for the team.
Just to sum up: Alvin needed 2,185 words to say the Cubs lost to the Mets, prospects are unlikely to meet expectations and tell Epstein to bring in mediocre players in order to win a World Series before he dies.
RynoQuote Reply