In Before Getting the Live Chicken

In Major League Baseball by Rice Cube132 Comments

In between searching for new employment and whatever else is going on in real life right now, I thought I’d temper some expectations and doom with some math. Funny enough, the only mention of “math” in the OV archives is one of the old comics about Joe Mather of all people, but I’m too lazy to grab something math-y from Al Gore’s internet, so this can stay and be fun. Incidentally, once upon a time when the Cubs sucked, I watched Joe Mather walk off an obviously superior Cardinals team at Wrigley, so strange things do happen in baseball.

We are at the point where we need more strange things to happen in favor of the Cubs. The problem, of course, is the prolonged slump in May and June that put them in this position in the first place (kind of the opposite of what happened last year). Having one of the first major bullpen fails that actually led to a loss after a hot streak was annoying but not unexpected. The problem is that certain clubs above the Cubs in the standings aren’t losing at the same time. Arizona and San Diego are too far away. Milwaukee has the division pretty much locked up. At 71-67, the Cubs have 24 games remaining to make up either the 10 game deficit in the division (probably not going to happen) or the 3.5 games (more like 4.5 with having lost pretty much every tiebreaker) between them and Atlanta, not to mention having to outplay the Mets, so it’s doable, just very very difficult and improbable.

The month of September has plenty of winnable games, but also a few land mines. Theoretically the Cubs can take Paul Skenes to school and then win their series against the Pirates despite laying a stinker in the opener, but that will be a tough task. Then the Yankees with a recovered Anthony Rizzo come into town, and that is not an easy matchup even if said Yankees have been struggling. Then a West Coast road trip to visit the Dodgers (not easy) and Coors (chaos incarnate) before a hopefully easier homestand against the A’s and Nationals. The last road trip of the year is three in Philly, who have the lead in their division but haven’t clinched anything yet, before finishing off the season at home against the Reds, who by that point you hope will be done.

With those 24 games remaining, the Cubs could go .500 (which would suck) and get to 83 wins, which would match last year’s surprising (yet ultimately disappointing) record, only this season we expected slightly better, so let’s not do that. Given that nobody wants to lose, the Cubs probably need anywhere from 86 to 90 wins to get that last wild card, so that’s between 15-9 (.625) and 19-5 (.792). Given their blitz through some easier competition and some of the matchups coming up, those are certainly still possible, as long as they don’t get fully embarrassed against the good teams and do what they need to against the bottom dwellers. While I would refrain from making any bets, I would also not completely dismiss this slim but still very real possibility. And even for those who gave up in June, at least you’re paying attention again, eh?

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  2. Author
    Rice Cube

    1. Steele scratched from scheduled start:

    Cubs manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including ESPN’s Jesse Rogers) last night that ace southpaw Justin Steele had been scratched from his scheduled start today due to elbow soreness. No information is currently available regarding the severity of the issue or how much time the lefty is expected to miss. Rogers indicated that the club expects to know more about Steele’s situation today, while Steele’s teammate Jameson Taillon told reporters (including Rogers) after yesterday’s game that “From everything [he] heard, we’re hoping it’s just a quick thing.”

    Regardless of if Steele only misses a start or two or is ticketed for a much longer absence, the news is a devastating blow to the Cubs as they struggle to remain relevant in the playoff picture. They currently sit 3.5 games back with just 3.7% odds at the playoffs per Fangraphs, and the loss of their ace could snuff out any remote hopes the club has of putting together a September surge. Steele missed time with a hamstring injury earlier this year, but in 22 starts, the 29-year-old has posted a 3.09 ERA with a 3.14 FIP in 128 innings. Those results are right in line with what Steele has done for three years running now, and his 3.10 ERA since the start of the 2022 season is fourth-lowest among pitchers with at least 400 innings, bested only by Justin Verlander, Max Fried, and Zack Wheeler.

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/09/the-opener-steele-cole-mlbtr-chat.html

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  5. Author
    Rice Cube

    I suppose this is as good of news as you can get re: elbow

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  20. Perkins

    Between the Cubs’ crapulence and Braves’ and Mets’ opposite of that, the last couple days have felt like the end of the Cubs’ season.

    This team has shown flashes of skill and I remain optimistic about the future, but it’d be swell if the front office made a more conspicuous effort to fill holes and risk some real money this time instead of trying to extract value. If the Cubs had won even half of the games the bullpen blew early in the season, they’d be holding a playoff spot. And if the entire offense hadn’t gone to shit for weeks at a time, the same would probably be true.

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  34. Perkins

    Nate Pearson and Porter Hodge are new obscure IG answers for no-hitters. I’m just assuming people will remember Shota’s contribution more.

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  39. Author
    Rice Cube

    berselius,

    The gist of what I understand is that Brett and friends will operate as they usually have, but they’ve obviously had to adapt and make things all click baity and SEO friendly etc plus all their ads and sponsorships. Nothing is ever truly free.

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  40. berselius

    Rice Cube,

    Aye, that’s also how it worked with Football Outsiders and their sports betting VC Overlords. Then their corporate overlords just … stopped paying the writers. And any bills.

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  47. andcounting

    Really happy for Amaya getting that no hitter on his resume. It’s crazy how absolutely frustrating this season has been when the people on this team have such good vibes overall. I really want to see this particular assembly of players win.

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  48. berselius

    Enjoying all the Rizzo content in the tubes today. I’m still surprised that the team didn’t keep him around – of all the youths from the championship team he always seemed like the obvious choice for both on and off the field reasons.

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  54. berselius

    I’m going to mark up PCA’s successful debut this season to the calming presence of Craig Counsell, who is uniquely suited to giving him advice on being a major leaguer who will likely always look like he’s skipping high school English class.

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  79. berselius

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  111. berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    LF Happ
    SS Swanson
    DH Suzuki
    RF Belli
    3B Paredes
    1B Busch
    2B Hoerner
    CF PCA
    C Amaya

    P Shota

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