Back in April I wondered if Brett Jackson was one of the three best outfielders in the Cubs organization. The conclusion at the time was that Jackson was certainly one of the three best on the team. In fact, his projections were similar to Kosuke Fukudome‘s, but considering Jackson would play CF he was projected to be more valuable over a similar number of plate appearances. Marlon Byrd was the best outfielder the Cubs had at the time and Jackson was second. If the Cubs went with their best outfield at that time last year it would have been Marlon Byrd in LF, Brett Jackson in CF and Kosuke Fukudome in RF. Not that it matters or would have mattered. The Cubs weren’t reaching the postseason with that outfield.
I took a look at the projections for the Cubs outfielders. I used CAIRO, Oliver and Bill James and calculated the average projection.
| Avg Projection | wOBA |
| Brett Jackson | .329 |
| Alfonso Soriano | .324 |
| David DeJesus | .324 |
| Marlon Byrd | .321 |
| Reed Johnson | .313 |
| Tony Campana | .292 |
If you factor in the necessary position adjustment Byrd would be right behind Jackson. Jackson is projected to be the best in the Oliver and Bill James projections and about middle of the pack in wOBA for CAIRO. But again, the position adjustment would still push him to the top. So yeah, Brett Jackson is the best outfielder on the Cubs roster.
Considering the team has little to no chance of contending next season I see no reason for him to begin the year in Chicago. He strikes out a ton and could use a few more at-bats in the minors. It’s important the Cubs gain that extra year of club control too. Then again, it’s hard justifying sending him to the minors. How do you tell your best outfielder he has to go ride the bus?
Comments
Cot’s has a new site:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/
Aisle424Quote Reply
I didn’t know you and the wife were in Galesburg, MB
http://chicagoist.com/2011/12/30/couples_nude_run_to_galesburg_mcdon.php
Aisle424Quote Reply
How long does he have to stay in the minors to get the extra year of control?
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]How long does he have to stay in the minors to get the extra year of control?[/quote]Late April would do. Castro was called up on May 7th (???) and he gets the 7th year. To avoid super-two it would be sometime in June with the new CBA. I don’t care much about that. I looked at it the other day and realistically speaking it’s an additional $3.5 million over 7 years. Big deal. If he becomes a superstar I doubt any of us will be complaining about the bargain that he is, although expensive.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I didn’t know you and the wife were in Galesburg, MB
http://chicagoist.com/2011/12/30/couples_nude_run_to_galesburg_mcdon.php%5B/quote%5DThat happens all the time.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Cot’s has a new site:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/%5B/quote%5DIt only took them 12 months to migrate it over to BP. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Late April would do. Castro was called up on May 7th (???) and he gets the 7th year. To avoid super-two it would be sometime in June with the new CBA. I don’t care much about that. I looked at it the other day and realistically speaking it’s an additional $3.5 million over 7 years. Big deal. If he becomes a superstar I doubt any of us will be complaining about the bargain that he is, although expensive.[/quote]I’m not as concerned about Super Two either. At some point, you have to pay these guys and it isn’t that big a deal when you consider the finances of these teams.
I think Byrd will end up getting dealt at some point and that would clear the way for Jackson to come up.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I think the Cubs trade Byrd before the season and put Sappelt in CF. At some point in May or June they call up Jackson. My guess for opening day outfield at this point would be Reed Johnson in LF, Sappelt in CF and DeJesus in RF.
mb21Quote Reply
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/olney_buster/id/7403396/ranking-top-10-outfields-mlb
I noted that the Cubs don’t show up on Olney’s 10 best outfields, 10 best infields, 10 best starting rotations, or 10 best bullpens.
This team really is fucked.
26.2cubsfanQuote Reply
[quote name=26.2cubsfan]http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/olney_buster/id/7403396/ranking-top-10-outfields-mlb
I noted that the Cubs don’t show up on Olney’s 10 best outfields, 10 best infields, 10 best starting rotations, or 10 best bullpens.
This team really is fucked.[/quote]At least they’re consistently bad. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
.
RodrigoQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo].[/quote]There is no shame in commenting, even on a discredited blog.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]There is no shame in commenting, even on a discredited blog.[/quote]
I talked about this the other day. Sometimes when I use my iPhone I can’t see comments on a thread until I post.
RodrigoQuote Reply
Plus I had nothing constructive to say
RodrigoQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo]Plus I had nothing constructive to say[/quote]Never stops anyone (dying laughing)
I see Iowa is having some issues on offense.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Never stops anyone (dying laughing)
I see Vandenberg is having some issues throwing footballs.[/quote].
mb21Quote Reply
Somewhat interesting content on the future value of Fielder.
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2011/12/why-a-fielder-signing-for-the-cubs-could-turn-out-worse-than-the-soriano-signing/
RodrigoQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo]Somewhat interesting content on the future value of Fielder.
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2011/12/why-a-fielder-signing-for-the-cubs-could-turn-out-worse-than-the-soriano-signing/%5B/quote%5DThis was a constructive comment.
My question is, if Soriano has been pure crap the past couple seasons, how could he have been worth 83% of his total contract value? I’m probably not understanding this right.
Oh wait, derp…I guess it’s saying that taking into account all his years of production so far, he’s only been worth 83% of what he got paid to date. My bad.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]This was a constructive comment.
My question is, if Soriano has been pure crap the past couple seasons, how could he have been worth 83% of his total contract value? I’m probably not understanding this right.
Oh wait, derp…I guess it’s saying that taking into account all his years of production so far, he’s only been worth 83% of what he got paid to date. My bad.[/quote]I read that earlier tonight and didn’t really understand it either. I didn’t bother trying to figure it out though.
mb21Quote Reply
So thanks, RC.
mb21Quote Reply
The only problem with what that guy is doing is that any long-term contract is going look poor if you look at it like that.
mb21Quote Reply
Probably the best article I’ve ever read on MLBTR: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/the-convergence-of-baseball-and-basketball.html
mb21Quote Reply
So Iowa knows that they have to score and not let the other team score in order to win this game, right?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]So Iowa knows that they have to score and not let the other team score in order to win this game, right?[/quote]I don’t believe so.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]So Iowa knows that they have to score and not let the other team score in order to win this game, right?[/quote]Kirk Ferentz reads this blog and is a fan of your insight. Too little too late, but at least they figured out the rules.
mb21Quote Reply
I almost went to this game but the weather was shitty so I didn’t.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpWV9uC35vg
Is it 2014 yet?
uncle daveQuote Reply
[quote name=uncle dave]I almost went to this game but the weather was shitty so I didn’t.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpWV9uC35vg
Is it 2014 yet?[/quote]Now I’m depressed again. I always get depressed when I see footage of that game.
If Wood was a Yankee, he’d have 3000 strikeouts and close to 300 wins by now.
Aisle424Quote Reply
If Theo knew what went on between Marlon Byrd and Gary Pressy last season, Byrd will definitely be a National soon.
Dont tell me what to doQuote Reply
I remember Wood shaking when Stone interviewed him on the field.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I remember Wood shaking when Stone interviewed him on the field.[/quote]Yeah it was pretty cold.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=uncle dave]I almost went to this game but the weather was shitty so I didn’t.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpWV9uC35vg
Is it 2014 yet?[/quote]
What’s with all the Klansmen in the seats?!
/silly
That curveball and slider/WTF-it-was were zipping all over. Pretty sweet to watch.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing) Just saw the Walt Jocketty tag.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]What’s with all the Klansmen in the seats?!
[/quote]
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I hate Illinois Klansmen.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/articles/general/thank-you.html
mb21Quote Reply