I know I’m not the first person to ask this question and with Carlos Marmol‘s recent meltdown, probably not even the first to ask it in the last few days. We can ignore the recent meltdown altogether and focus on the last two years instead. I chose the last two years because it’s quite clear Sean Marshall became a different pitcher over the last few years. His fastball velocity has jumped about 5 mph from what it was in 2008 and it has jumped 2 mph from what it was in 2009. As a result, Marshall’s strikeout rate has jumped considerably and he’s just a far better pitcher than he once was. This doesn’t mean we can expect his current performance to continue. We can’t. He’ll regress somewhat, but I’m not interested in that right now. I’m just wondering if Sean Marshall is or has been better.
Over the last two seasons, batters have hit only .226/.284/.294 against Marshall. Against Marmol, batters have hit .182/.312/.251. Marshall’s OPS is a bit higher, but proper weighting makes them roughly equal to one another.
Since 2010, Marshall has been worth 20.7 Pitching Runs according to Baseball Reference, 2.1 Pitching Wins, accrued 2.6 WPA, 20.4 RE24 and 2.0 REW. Marmol has been quite good, but he’s added just 15.7 Pitching Runs and 1.6 Pitching Wins. Thanks to pitching in higher leverage situations, Marmol has a higher WPA (3.2). He also has a higher RE24 and REW, but not by much at all.
Marshall’s FIP is 2.15 while his ERA is 2.71 and his xFIP is 2.55. His fWAR is 4.3. Marmol’s FIP is 2.60 and his ERA is 3.20 while his xFIP is 3.30. His fWAR is 3.9. Over the last two seasons, Sean Marshall has been the superior pitcher and I’m not sure it’s that close.
Marmol has allowed 11.6 baserunners per 9 innings while Marshall has allowed only 10.2 per 9.
Even if we go back to 2009 and use relief innings only, Marshall has still been better. Marshall has a 2.83 ERA, 2.51 FIP, 2.78 xFIP and 4.8 fWAR. Marmol has a 3.27 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 3.92 xFIP and 4.5 fWAR.
Going back to 2008 we find that Marmol has now thrown 100 more relief innings than Marshall, but Marshall’s ERA is 2.91, his FIP is 2.80 and his xFIP is 3.02. Marmol’s ERA is 3.10, his FIP is 3.26 and his xFIP is 3.85.
Comments
I was wondering how much Marshall’s numbers are boosted by any platoon advantage, but he’s faced more right-handers than lefties.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Would Marshall be the closer, if you had your druthers?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]I was wondering how much Marshall’s numbers are boosted by any platoon advantage, but he’s faced more right-handers than lefties.[/quote]Didn’t think to look into that. Generally it’s about 66% righties or thereabouts.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]Would Marshall be the closer, if you had your druthers?[/quote]I don’t know. I haven’t thought about it. I don’t think it matters to be honest. Marmol is a good reliever and if Marshall is better, it’s not by much. If I was managing the team, I’d probably use Marmol is two or more righties were due up and Marshall if a couple lefties were due up.
mb21Quote Reply
Of course it’s not that easy. You’d want to use one earlier so I guess I’d pick the one with the biggest splits and use him in the situation to best maximize value.
mb21Quote Reply
It looks like Marshall has faced a few more lefties than you’d expect so that needs to be considered, but he’s good against both lefties and righties.
mb21Quote Reply
MishQuote Reply
The Royals are smarter than Berselius and MO: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/frenchy_replacement_level_player_no_longer_replacement_level/
I hadn’t give it much thought in the last thread, but didn’t agree that Francouer was a replacement level player. I’d have guessed 1.5, which is about what Tango comes up with.
mb21Quote Reply
Maybe.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
(dying laughing) http://deadspin.com/5832234/the-2011-haters-guide-to-the-top-25
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]The Royals are smarter than Berselius and MO: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/frenchy_replacement_level_player_no_longer_replacement_level/
I hadn’t give it much thought in the last thread, but didn’t agree that Francouer was a replacement level player. I’d have guessed 1.5, which is about what Tango comes up with.[/quote]False.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
By the way, the option next year for $4 million was mutual. If it was a club option the Royals would have just exercised it, but he’d have tested free agency and gotten more.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Maybe.[/quote]Correct.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]By the way, the option next year for $4 million was mutual. If it was a club option the Royals would have just exercised it, but he’d have tested free agency and gotten more.[/quote]I see Tango’s point, and I know I’m overreacting. But then I also see the suckfest that was Francouer for 3 straight seasons and worry about him returning to that form.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I’m not sure quite how Marshall managed to improve so much (especially the increase in fastball velocity). Some of that is probably from switching to relief full-time, but it still seems pretty drastic.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I see Tango’s point, and I know I’m overreacting. But then I also see the suckfest that was Francouer for 3 straight seasons and worry about him returning to that form.[/quote]My only thought would be that he was good before and then sucked a while. It might have been situational. The team could be seeing enough evidence of who the “real” Francouer is to justify paying him.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t know. I haven’t thought about it. I don’t think it matters to be honest. Marmol is a good reliever and if Marshall is better, it’s not by much. If I was managing the team, I’d probably use Marmol is two or more righties were due up and Marshall if a couple lefties were due up.[/quote]The classic commenter storyline there is that the pitchers have to know their role or they aren’t as effective. Guys dont’ want to share the closer role, supposedly. If that’s true at all, it probably has more to do with how much they get paid than how effective they are in the role.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]By the way, the option next year for $4 million was mutual. If it was a club option the Royals would have just exercised it, but he’d have tested free agency and gotten more.[/quote]Ah, okay. It’s not unheard of for a guy to have a couple of off-years and bounce back. I think the wide swing just tells us that we can’t be quite sure yet who the real Francouer is.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I see Tango’s point, and I know I’m overreacting. But then I also see the suckfest that was Francouer for 3 straight seasons and worry about him returning to that form.[/quote]Sure, but Tango is right that you can’t look at the past 3 seasons without also giving some weight to the 3 seasons before that (as well as this one of course). He’s been pretty good this year, which is the best indication of how he’ll perform next year.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I’m not sure quite how Marshall managed to improve so much (especially the increase in fastball velocity). Some of that is probably from switching to relief full-time, but it still seems pretty drastic.[/quote]I always thought his velocity was down ompared to what it was in the minors. Coming through the system he was a guy who sat in the 87 to 89 and touched 91 and 92 as a starter. Then he gets to the big leagues and he’s sitting 85 and 86 and touching 88 and 89. I thought that was as weird as his velocity returning.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Sure, but Tango is right that you can’t look at the past 3 seasons without also giving some weight to the 3 seasons before that (as well as this one of course). He’s been pretty good this year, which is the best indication of how he’ll perform next year.[/quote]Yeah, I get that. I’m just reacting as a fan, and not as a dispassionate analyst. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yeah, I get that. I’m just reacting as a fan, and not as a dispassionate analyst. (dying laughing)[/quote]Oh I know that. My reaction was different from you two, but partly becuase I just didn’t care. I know berselius has kind of had it out for Frenchy for awhile and you closely follow the Royals. I was more interested in whether or not it was a good deal, but didn’t care enough to look myself. Too lazy for that. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Mike Jacobs ———-> 50 game suspension and the honor being the 1st player to get busted for HGH.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://ivychat.blogspot.com/2011/08/if-at-first-you-dont-stif-us-try-try.html
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Mike Jacobs ———-> 50 game suspension and the honor being the 1st player to get busted for HGH.[/quote]Only 100 career home runs. I’m mildly upset, but not really.
GBTSQuote Reply
New shit same as the first: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/cubs-asking-for-public-funding-to-fix-wrigley-take-two.html
Aisle424Quote Reply