The pitchforks and torches are out among many Cubs fans (and even the media) after Dale Sveum bunted with two men on and nobody out with a nonpitcher at the plate not once but twice late in yesterday's game. Even worse, ont of those cases was with the Cubs second best hitter, Starlin Castro. Sveum seems to have a fetish for bunting that was foreshadowed by his preseason bunting tournament, and you wonder why he was even hired in the first place given the analytic bent of the Cubs front office. That got me wondering though – does such a saber-friendly manager even exist right now? Not ordering stupid bunts is just one aspect of managing.
The hiring process lasted a long time, and both the Cubs and the similarly analytical Red Sox had pretty much the same list of candidates. They went through a long and winding process, doing mock press conferences and quizzing the managers on reactions to game situations and general philosophies of managing. One of the big pluses in Sveum's corner was his love of spray charts and defensive positioning, which seems to be working well with the Cubs.
Now that so many progressively analytic types have taken over front offices, why hasn't the same thing happened in the dugout? Joe Maddon gets props for his maverick managing styles, but as MGL likes to harp on there's certianly still plently of mistakes that he makes. If all of this stuff is so obvious to us, why hasn't it shown up in the dugout? Any idiot fan could tell you that Castro shouldn't bunt, but so far it looks like there isn't *anyone* in the market whose skill set lies in the Venn diagram of Not Making Stupid Bunting/Lineup Decisions, Keeping The Players Happy, and Keeping The Media Away, which is more or less the three main roles a manager has to fulfill. If only someone would clone Earl Weaver.
Comments
Fuck cloning. Zombie Earl Weaver would be the best manager, ever.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Also, just fucking cut Wood. Awful.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
I think it’s safe to add “leverage” to the list of shit Sveum doesn’t get. If he’s on the roster at all, Wood should be mopping up.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Another Sveum idiot move. Kerry has no right to be in a 1 run game with the way he’s pitched lately…that’s so obvious.
srbutch5Quote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Agreed.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Cashner just struck out Harper with a 101 mph fastball to end the game. He was throwing bullets in the 9th.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
We should make a list of things Sveum gets.
mb21Quote Reply
uncle dave wrote:
Should have gone with Lendy Castillo instead? This bullpen fucking blows.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Kerry is done
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
The problem with LaHair is that he is 30 adn doesn’t have a long history of success. Now that he’s actually hitting well and starting to answer the questins about whether he is a AAAA player, he will have to start dealing with wondering when the decline will begin and how steep it will be.
I don’t know what value you would ever get for Bryan LaHair given the unreliability in assessing true talent level plus the unknown of his aging curve. The only good thing about him is the cost control, and I think that is a big plus for the Cubs right now. Somebody has to be a major league hitter on this team.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Cubs lose.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
If you believe that TLR was right and relievers can only go one inning, you still have three guys who are better than Wood to pitch the 7th, 8th, and 9th in Russell, Camp, and Dolis. Yes, they blow, but that doesn’t leave him off the hook to find whoever sucks the least and put them into the highest-leverage situations.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Damn, and Russell is even usually death to lefties
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ mb21:
1.) Bunts
2.) Spray charts
3.) Sons of Anarchy character arcs
All done.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Camp threw 2 innings yesterday, is probably unvailable
BerseliusQuote Reply
Bullpen —> sucks
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Dolis is probably only “good” for one inning after throwing yesterday too
BerseliusQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
Agreed. I think that he’d be most valuable on a team like the Pirates or some other club with severe payroll constraints, but that’s just the type of team who wouldn’t be likely to send away young, cost-controlled talent in return. I think you ride him as long as you can while he’s still cheap, unless someone is desperate enough to give you a legit return for him.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I feel that the Front Office isn’t trying to win. This (looked like) a seventy-win team.
The Cubs have spent the last five years playing with athletic free swingers. Sveum’s job for this year might be to develop, and not win, so he’s making these players reinforce skills (sacrifice bunting, plate discipline) in high pressure situations.
The point of Dave Sveuem is for the Cubs Players to learn how to take walks, steal bases, and play small ball. Home Run Hitters are expensive. Sveum wants doubles hitters. Castro may only hit 10-15 HRs. His ISO and .SLG both rose over the last two years. Batting Starlin third was an attempt to increase opportunities for extra base hits.
PezcoreQuote Reply
Double play ball with one out and we threw home? Or is that not what happened? WTF??
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Fair enough.
uncle daveQuote Reply
The Cubs only chance to get real value for Lahair is going to be on a deadline deal for a team that has a sudden hole to fill at 1b down the stretch. MO is right that he’s not going to be a significant part of the next good Cubs team, unless they’re willing to shell out some cash in the near future
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I think that’s fair. But I don’t care how cost-controlled a 32 YO Brian LaHair is with a 30% k-rate and a normalized BABiP. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I think that’s right, but if I’m Theo, the first thing I think about with LaHair is where I can move him.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
He’s back baby!!
joshQuote Reply
Remember when Soriano used to hit those more often?
mb21Quote Reply
Selfish HR!
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ josh:
It must have been a bad ball placement from Stewart’s point of view…I didn’t see the play.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Adolfo!!
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Strikeout rates regress too, fwiw
BerseliusQuote Reply
I bet Motte’s wife makes him leave his shoes outside the door because they smell like a sack of smashed assholes.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
I agree with 424 here. I think it’s going to take until next year before he has a lot of value and I think considering he’s league minimum the Cubs are better off keeping him around. If you trade him now you won’t be selling high on him because teams still don’t know what to think and will be cautious in what they give up. So if you sell now and get little in return only to find out in 2 or 3 years that’s he’s legit it’s going to look stupid. I don’t see any reason to trade Lahair unless some team offers a bunch for him and I don’t see that happening.
mb21Quote Reply
So…this Soriano guy.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
He was at 27% in the minors (career), so I think 30% is probably about where he’ll be in the majors.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Yeah. I think they’ll shop him at the deadline but if no one wants to give up much they’ll keep him
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
It’s already started. Last time I checked it was about 31% and I just checked and it’s 29%. I’m guessing it settles around 27%.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
He was at 20% the last 2 years in AAA. Add in the year before that and about 21%. Go back to 2006 and it’s between 20 and 21% in the minor leagues.
mb21Quote Reply
is it sad i 100% thought Barney would be bunting here?
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
The 27% I think MO is looking at is LaHair’s MLB career strikeout rate.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Did he strike out a ton earlier in his career? His 6 years in AAA rates were
21.3%
20.8%
24%
22.7%
19.7%
21.2%
or are you talking MLE?
BerseliusQuote Reply
I fucked something up, his career MiLB rate is 21.4 %. So, yeah, he’ll probably end up somewhere between 24-27% in the majors. Decent walk rate, though, too.
I dunno. I just don’t trust these late bloomers. Especially not when they coast on risible BABiP numbers.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
No. All good things must regress and all bad things must remain bad. Fuck you.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
LaHair’s career MiLB K% is 21.6%. That’s over 4000 PA. In AAA it’s 21.7% and that’s in 2709 PA.
mb21Quote Reply
Looking forward to see this in the bottom of the 9th: “In play, run(s)”.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
The difference in the 21.4% MO got and 21.6% I just posted is that I exclude intentional walks in the denominator when calculating K%.
mb21Quote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
I don’t trust Lahair to post a .479 wOBA as he currently has, but I don’t see any reason he can’t post a .360 one (that’s his rest of season projection right now). I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s .340 and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s .380 the rest of the way either. He’s not a .479 hitter, but his numbers are so damn good that even if we regress other numbers they’re still pretty damn good.
mb21Quote Reply
jtsunami wrote:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
What a play by Stewart!
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
All those HR aren’t factoring into his BABIP (dying laughing). He’s pounding the ball. I might take a look at trying to luck-neutralize his stats later this week and I think he’ll still easily outpace the rest of the team
BerseliusQuote Reply
What a play from Stewart. Wow.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Yeah, he regresses to league avg/slighty above average now, yes? There’s no question he’s having a tremendous season. I’m not saying that. I’m just saying I don’t trust it. I don’t want LaHair to fail. The Cubs need cheap talent. I’m more afraid that his regression is going to happen so drastically that the Cubs could be tempted to call up Rizzo before they really need to call him up.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Oh, I’d guess he’s the best hitter on the team by a mile in that respect.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
It’s only a month until they can call up Rizzo
BerseliusQuote Reply
Oh well…a split works.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
There it is.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
spray chart fail
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
He has a 24.6% line drive rate so based on that alone we’d expect a .366 BABIP. His current BABIP is .444. There’s obviously some regression coming his way, but that’s built into the ZiPS rest of season projection. I remember asking Colin one time about neutralizing a player’s current stats and he said the best way is to look at the rest of season ZiPS projection. This was before PECOTA offered in-season projections (are they doing that this year?).
mb21Quote Reply
jtsunami called that one
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Ugh. That is all.
joshQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I think he probably regresses to quite a bit better than average. There’s some caution considering his age, but LaHair just might be a very good ballplayer. Hard to believe. But sometimes, as Alvin would say, things just click. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
I’m sure Sveum will find a player to blame for that.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Too bad they clicked at the end of his peak. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Now that we’ve heard about him it won’t happen
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I think I remember seeing an announcement about in-season PECOTA a while ago. but I don’t have a BP sub anymore.
LaHair’s updated projection is for a .360 wOBA, 24% strikeout rate
BerseliusQuote Reply
It would appear from Josh Beckett’s first two innings that he has not even thought of chicken, beer, or golf since his last start.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Are you and Anthony Bass getting an apartment together or what?
mb21Quote Reply
I just saw the Cubs signed Mike MacDougal to the minor league contract. I didn’t even know he was still pitching. I haven’t heard of him since he was with the Royals and that seems like a decade ago.
mb21Quote Reply
I’m not sure any pitcher has so consistently been at or above replacement level in an 11-year career in which they have only 3.4 fWAR. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=612&position=P
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
He was a closer I recently enjoyed.
I think he took a batted ball off his head a few years ago
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I’m setting his career wins over/under at 317.5.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
And you’re taking the over, right?
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Is that how over/unders work?
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
He must be a helluva bunter.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I have to admit that I haven’t read a single comment from Dale Sveum since spring training. I have no idea what he said on bunts. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Basically that he knew he was taking the bat out of Castro and LaHair’s hands with men on 1st and 2nd and no outs, and that he thought it was worth it to stay out of the DP. Which of course ignores the fact that it did no such thing. LaHair’s walk cancels out the sac bunt. When this was pointed out to him, he blamed Castro for not getting the bunt down properly and insinuated that the team is in some sort of, to use srbutch’s term, “bunt slump.”
Then today he was pushed on it again, and told Sullivan he didn’t want to debate “cybermetrics” and said Theo never talked with him about that stuff.
The man is daft.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
My main concern with the Castro bunt was that I don’t trust Castro’s bunting ability. It’s worth noting, however, that late-and-close with no outs and runners on first and second (with a groundball hitter) is one of the best times to bunt (see The Book page 283).
ACTQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/cubs-acquire-hunter-cervenka-to-complete-marlon-byrd-trade.html
mb21Quote Reply
I also think that the argument that they’d just walk LaHair after a successful sacrifice is a weak one. Bases loaded and 1 out has a higher RE than runners on fist and second and no out. You’d have to take into account the abilities of different hitters, of course, but I like that even a “mere” successful bunt improve RE in this situation.
ACTQuote Reply
Is Ryne Sandberg available?
RichardG51Quote Reply
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Astuce et TrucQuote Reply