This is a guest post by SVB.
Both Myles and dmick have noted some constraints in their ability to write recently, so I’m writing in an attempt to give Myles and dmick a break, as well as to prevent another unloadable 200+ comment thread from developing. Don’t worry, I won’t become the Jay Leno (or even the David Brenner) of OV- guest writers. So some random thoughts…
There is a lot of angst in the Cublogville about a lack of activity this winter. One thing that Theo has changed about the culture of the Cubs front office and biz-ops is that there is a much tighter reign on leaks. Having lived through the endless Ryan Dempster sagas, we should be thankful for that, even as we beg and plead like poor little Oliver for just a little more. Bruce Miles has also noted that the front office is much more tight-lipped than before. I think it’s usually a good strategy not to show your hand to the others around the table. My Grandma used to say “Breast your cards,” and boy-o, Theo is good at that. I fully expect that by February some of the Cubs’ rejected offers will trickle out. Theo probably improves their bargaining power by controlling leaks, but it costs Theo some in public opinion because the lack of news makes it seem like the Cubs aren’t trying.
The Cubs have been linked to the Blue Jays in Jeff Samardzija rumors. Remember the Blue Jays made a big splash last year and picked up the better half of the Marlins, then finished the season with about 74 wins. Ick. Seems they need a starter and they need to win.
The Jays are rumored to be willing to trade Colby Rasmus. Rasmus had some decent numbers last year and plays a position the Cubs need—Outfield. (Note how I controlled myself and didn’t say “Major Leaguer” there.) Imagine a trade that brings back Rasmus, one of Toronto’s top pitching prospects (Aaron Sanchez or Marcus Stroman) and maybe some A-ball pitcher or OF. That might look good for the Cubs, but it doesn’t make sense to me. I assume Toronto will hang on to Stroman because he seems ready to be in the bigs this year. Why trade a guy that would contribute by June 1? Sanchez could be ready by September, which doesn’t help Toronto this year, but would fit in the Cubs timeline. Samardzija would fit Toronto’s desire to have some control over a player instead of being a rental. But the kicker is Rasmus doesn’t seem to make sense for the Cubs. Yes, he fills a need, but he’s a free agent after this year. He could be flipped if he produces, but at this point it seems the Cubs should be looking for multi-year contributors in return instead of just pretending to be the Royals. Only Aaron Sanchez seems to fill the multi-year presence description. Is that enough? Toronto is also rumored to be willing to trade Adam Lind. He has no role on the Cubs. However, Toronto’s farm is stacked with pitchers, so maybe there is a deal to be made.
The Dodgers might trade Matt Kemp. They’ll eat salary to get a good player. I don’t really see the trade match for the Cubs there, since the Dodgers have pitching. But maybe if the Cubs take on most of the salary, the Dodgers expectation of quality in return would drop some. Not to Darwin Barney levels though. Still, it’s fun to imagine Kemp in Wrigley, if he’s healthy. The Dodgers could put Shark in a rotation of Kershaw, Ryu, Greinke, and Beckett, with Haren and Billingsley on the mend. Too bad we can’t do a Samardzija for Grudzielanek trade.
Continuing to dream, an OF with Kemp and Choo in it would look pretty productive. I like Choo’s ability to take a walk. He’s still out there, let’s hope the Cubs are in on him as a building block.
Thursday is the Rule 5 draft. The Cubs don’t have a pick. Why? Because of Lendy Castillo: The gift that keeps on giving. Like herpes. The Phillies grieved his mystery illness and won, so they get the Cubs’ pick. No big deal in the scheme of things, but I’m pretty sure that Castillo had more runs in his stat line in the Arizona Fall League than Baez and Almora together. Wonder who the Cubs will lose. The farm has some depth for a change, so I bet we lose at least 2 players. Maybe this was noted at OV before, but I was too busy reading every word for references to BBQ to notice.
In fact, I’m hungry now, so I’ll stop. Feel free to ignore the above and comment about other relevant Cubs stuff below, like why it makes no sense that a two-loss college football team that has one of its losses to Utah is ranked higher than the Buckeyes.
Comments
If Rasmus doesn’t sign an extension and hits FA in 2015, he’s pretty much exactly who I’d want to sign in that offseason. If getting him means he’d extend ahead of FA, that’s pretty valuable to me (but not nearly as valuable as Sanchez or Stroman).
Great article.
MylesQuote Reply
Here’s why Stanford is ranked ahead of Ohio State- and I’m not saying this because I totally agree with it, but rather because I think it’s basically true. Ohio State has played one team ranked in the top 15 in the last 3 seasons, and they lost. Stanford beat Oregon and Arizona State. Strength of schedule does kill Ohio State, and to some extent, every team in the Big 10. But the other thing that kills OSU that nobody ever mentions is that they were on probation last year and didn’t play in a bowl game for a national audience. That meant that no national audience saw them, and secondly, they missed out on a quality opponent. Michigan was the first OSU game I saw this year, and (though I’m admittedly an SEC fan), I didn’t think OSU was one of the 3-4 best teams in the country watching that game. I realize its a rivalry, but bubbles’ Gamecocks manhandled Clemson in a rivalry game the week before. Clemson is now going to a BCS bowl that they don’t really deserve, and I fully expect them to beat OSU too.
NateQuote Reply
Nate wrote:
Fixed.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Nate:
OSU looked quite worthy of their ranking in other games I saw them in. Looked great against Wisconsin, for sure.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Nate:
I think Stanford would probably beat OSU on a neutral field, though it would be pretty close. The reason why they’re ranked ahead of OSU is because OSU lost more recently and the polling bias towards this is beyond stupid.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Not something that was hard to do this year. BOOM ROASTED.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
*shrugs* Wisconsin was pretty good this year. Should be a good game against Soutch Carolina.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I admit you likely know OSU way better than I do, but I don’t think their defense is very good at all. I could be wrong. Who were the solid offenses they played this year, and how did they perform against them?
I agree that the timing of losses thing plays into polls, but I also think some teams improve dramatically over the course of the season, for instance Auburn. They might not be able to beat FSU, but holy shit nobody can stop them from scoring right now.
NateQuote Reply
@Berselius: (dying laughing) I hadn’t checked on Wisconsin’s record since they were 2-2. Life as an Illinois fan; have been waiting for Men’s Basketball to start since early october.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ Nate:
Wisconsin was probably the best offense they played, and they held them to 104 yards rushing. Not bad considering UW had two 1000 yard rushers. OSU’s defense isn’t what got them all those wins though anyway. And obviously, SOS is much weaker than Stanford’s.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’m really tired of the bowl system and the BCS. A few tweaks could really improve it. The only interesting BCS bowl besides the NC Game is the Rose bowl. If there weren’t all these conference/locality/$$ allegiances, some really interesting bowl matchups could take place. Who wants to see Alabama play OU? I don’t. Oregon, Stanford, MSU, Baylor would all be way more interesting against Bama. And Central Florida does not interest me against anyone. The playoff will likely be an improvement, but it will be best when extended to 8 teams.
Wisconsin was good this year, and will have a good game against SC probably, but I kinda expect SC to win based on my own sec bias. Does anyone think OSU is better than Missouri? I like their team this year.
NateQuote Reply
I usually have coal in my hot stove until my morning coffee.
GBTSQuote Reply
Nate wrote:
[img]http://howyoucanbecool.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/kid-flipping-bird.jpg[/img]
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
SK’s a lot younger than I imagined.
sitrickQuote Reply
These are my favorite titles on blogs (this one on MLBTR): Matt Garza Could Sign Within 48 Hours
Yeah. He could.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
BREAKING: I could find a million dollars in non sequential small bills outside of my office
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I could find it first.
dmick89Quote Reply
Al Yellon could get a job with Baseball Prospectus.
sitrickQuote Reply
sitrick wrote:
[img]http://i.imgur.com/I8kq0uJ.gif[/img]
MylesQuote Reply
Guys, I’m going crazy, and now think that I would sign Shin-Soo Choo at 7/$140.
If I have time (and I’m going to try my damndest), I’ll write an article about it.
MylesQuote Reply
Speaking of, B-Pro just gave the top three arms in the Orioles’ system 7-grade OFPs. Fuck.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
7 is about the sum of the Cubs top 3 pitchers, isn’t it?
dmick89Quote Reply
sitrick wrote:
uncle daveQuote Reply
I always got David Brenner and Garry Shandling mixed up.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ Myles:
(dying laughing), good thing you posted this after I finished proctoring my final exam
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Well, I mean, baseball and the NBA playoffs happened.
sitrickQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Viz could get a 6 as a reliever? Shrug.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
I was joking. I’d give Pierce Johnson a 5 or 6. I think he’s got a decent chance to end up being a 200 inning, 3+ WAR pitcher.
dmick89Quote Reply
I keep wishcasting Paul Blackburn into a No. 2 someday. We’ll see.
MylesQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Interested to see where Johnson ends up. I bet he gets a high 5 grade this time around. Blackburn and Underwood seem to be the guys all the prospect pundits I read have room for grade jumps.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I agree. I think Rasmus would be great. But why would his agent advise him to sign an extension only one year away from free agency. That doesn’t make sense to me.
From MLBTR hits:
The Cubs will be in on Masahiro Tanaka, tweets Bruce Levine of WSCR. As he notes, the potential ace could greatly accelerate their timeline to compete.
Well, thank god. And duh.
SVBQuote Reply
@ Nate:
I get the quality of schedule argument, but you still have to beat the teams you play. Wisconsin was a quality opponent. They are essentially equal to Az State in my book. Stanford lost to ASU.
Utah is essentially equal to Indiana and OSU clobbered IU. Stanford lost to IU, I mean Utah.
SVBQuote Reply
Dammit, I didn’t realize I was writing out loud. Sorry.
SVBQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
Yeah, as a Bulls/Cubs/Illinois guy, the nine months haven’t had much good on offer.
uncle daveQuote Reply
So is Derrick Rose the basketball version of Mark Prior?
JonKneeV2Quote Reply
@ JonKneeV2:
Ron Harper is the guy who keeps popping into my head. Hopefully Rose will regain his usefulness by next year and stay healthy, and not lose his explosiveness like Harper did, though.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
@ JonKneeV2:
Not that I’m an expert, but to my eye, he needs to change his game, or at least add to it. He plays with a lot of athleticism, but in a way that makes these sorts of knee injuries much more likely. If I’m him, I’m looking to add some chris paul to my game, more hesitation moves and step backs so he has to rely less on jump stops and bursts. Not saying don’t use it when you need it, but first step quickness is Rose’s entire game at this point, and he’s got to be smarter and have a more robust aresenal if he’s going to not just wreck his body.
sitrickQuote Reply
uncle dave wrote:
I thought it was a pretty great summer, but I was watching a lot of smokies games (dying laughing)
sitrickQuote Reply
New shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/the-cubs-wanted-my-opinion-so-i-gave-it.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ sitrick:
Yeah, it seems like he’s eventually going to have to change his game regardless of whether he continues to get hurt or not. He’s very much got a young man’s game, and he ain’t gonna be young forever. I think it’s just a question of how quickly that day comes, and whether or not he suffers if it’s sooner rather than later.
Sad that we’re being robbed of his best years, though. As much as I enjoyed the success that Jordan had in his later years, it was a hell of a lot more fun watching him take guys off the dribble than it was to watch him post up smaller guards and hit 15-foot turnaround jumpers.
uncle daveQuote Reply