The Cubs top prospect Javier Baez is off to a forgettable start this year. Over 92 plate appearances he’s batting only .169/.250/.313. To his credit, he’s carried over a much improved walk rate from AA. It’s at 7.6% (7.9% at AA), but he’s struck out in 37% of his plate appearances.
One thing we’ve gotten used to with Baez is that he gets off to super slow starts. Let’s look at them.
- 2013 High A (April 4 – April 25): 91 PA, .238/.264/.476, 3.3% BB%, 29.7% K%, 101 wRC+
- 2013 AA (July 10 – August 1): 94 PA, .247/.319/.635, 9.6% BB%, 33% K%, 175 wRC+
- 2012 High A (August 4 – September 2, end of season): 86 PA, .188/.244/.400, 5.8% BB%, 24.4% K%, 76 wRC+
- 2012 A (May 28 – June 27): 92 PA, .272/.359/.457, 6.5% BB%, 23.9% K%, 132 wRC+
He only played 5 games in 2011 after the draft.
OK, so it appears our perception of Baez getting off to a slow start is either one that takes place over fewer games or wrong. I’m betting on fewer games because I’m certain he’s been a slow starter. Either way, let’s compare any of those to what he’s done this year.
His wRC+ sits at 43 and is well below any 85-95 PA start to a level in his career. His strikeout rate is significantly higher.
Not to mention, I’m not entirely sure what he did mid-year 2012 matters one damn bit to what he’s doing right now. This is 2014 and his worst start was in 2012 at High A. There’s little we can compare between the two that would be of any value at all.
What we know is that Baez has typically righted himself well before the 90 PA mark. So much so that in three of these four starts, he’s been an above average hitter. In the one he wasn’t, he still was not striking out nearly 40% of the time.
I’m not here to say that Baez’s career is over or that we should even think less of him as a prospect. I’m not sure I do at this point. It is just 92 plate appearances and adjustments can be made. Minor leaguers do work on a variety of things and that can have an impact, but we shouldn’t dismiss this start either. Baez’s poor starts have been over fewer plate appearances than this and this is a really, really bad start.
All minor leaguers are working on one thing or another. Probably multiple things. If there’s anything Javier Baez needs to work on right now, it’s cutting down that strikeout rate.