Iowa Cubs 3 @ Oklahoma City RedHawks 4
Cubs outhit the RedHawks 9 to 7 in this one. Mike Olt went 0-4 with a strikeout, and Logan Watkins went 0-5. Watkins has a .508 after the ASB and a .556 OPS since July. Hopefully he gets back on the train soon, because Alcantara is not far behind him as 2Bs go (though the way is relatively clear at CF). Jae-Hoon Ha, seemingly forgotten by me sometimes, went 1-4 with a double. He's been poor this year.
Nick Struck had another poor-ish outing, surrendering 4 runs in 5.1 innings. Marcus Hatley inherited a pair of runners in the 6th and stranded them both, then Chang-Yong Lim notched 2 shutout frames to end it. I imagine Chang-Yong Lim is going to get an extended look-see at the end of this year, because (believe it or not) the Cubs are really only a bat, an arm, and a bullpen away from really competing next year.
Birmingham Barons 8 (15 hits) @ Tennessee Smokies 5 (12 hits)
Only the suddenly-frozen Arismendy Alcantara did not record a hit in this game. Matt Szczur went 2-5, as did Javier Baez. Baez' two hits were both 2-run blasts. Christian Villanueva went 1-2 with a pair of walks, and Justin Bour went 1-4 with a walk of his own. Rubi Silva was 2-4 with a double, and Jonathan Mota/Chad Noble doubled also.
I'm going to go on a limb here and say that I think Javier Baez should be promoted to Iowa. I know it's only been 80 or so PA in Tennessee, and I know he has an OBP below .300. He still has plenty to learn…which is why I think he needs to be promoted. The reason Javier was sent to Tennessee was to fail, and he's not actually failing. His OPS is higher in a pitcher's league than it was in Daytona. The argument was that Baez would have to adjust to AA pitching; however, AA pitching is not going to adjust to him. You can give me the Kevin Maas argument all day with SSS, but Baez DOES have that power and he'll continue to hit all of the balls that come near the strike zone for home runs until you give him pitchers that don't make as many mistakes. I think Baez could theoretically spend a couple of years at AAA learning patience, but I don't think he'll learn it any lower than that (if he learns it at all).
Eric Jokisch struggled in his start, allowing 6 in 5 and allowing 9 hits, 3 walks. P.J. Francescon relieved him and was really dicey, allowing 5 baserunners in his 2 innings. He only allowed 1 run, though. Kevin Rhoderick walked a pair in the 8th but escaped damage, and Marcos Mateo (remember him?) allowed a run in an inning.
Daytona Cubs 2 @ Palm Beach Cardinals 1
I imagine that very soon this team will get exciting (Almora and Vogelbach should be getting their cups of coffee here pretty soon). Until then, we've got this dreck. 4 people had two hits (all singles): Ben Carhart, Dustin Geiger, Taiwan Easterling, and Brad Zapenas. Bijan Rademacher also singled and walked. Zeke DeVoss had a particularly bad day, striking out 3 times (and walking once). He also stole a base, his 29th of the year.
C.J. Edwards was ridiculous in his debut. He struck out 8 of the first 10 batters he faced, and ended up with a line of 5.1 IP, H, BB, 8 SO. He profiles as a shutdown closer in my book, which isn't a knock at all on his stuff, just his frame. He may never weigh more than 160 pounds and I'd rather go for 80 innings of dominant relief than risk an injury starting, especially given his load and relatively violent delivery. If he does put on the weight, though, he's got every chance to be a solid 2, with a plus fastball and a slider/curve that would play in the bigs with relatively little refinement. Lendy Castillo, future Cubs ace, went 3 innings and did pretty well. He allowed an unearned run and a hit, walking and striking out 3. Austin Reed got the save with a relatively blemish-free 9th.
Kane County Cougars 6 @ Peoria Chiefs 3
What a fast ride it's been for Giuseppe Papaccio. Drafted in the 18th round of this year's draft, he signed immediately and was sent to Arizona, where he recorded a .313/.395/.406 line. He skipped Boise (he is 22, after all), and led off today for the Cougars. His line is pretty bad in Kane County so far, but it's still fairly impressive to get sent to Kane County as a relatively unheralded prospect and lead off. Papaccio went 2-5 with 2 runs scored. Albert Almora went 2-5, as is his custom, but didn't double. Dan Vogelbach went deep and walked twice, and his line this year is now .291/.365/.457. It's a far cry from last year's 1.051 OPS, but he is heating up and should be promoted in short order. He's had 100 games in Kane County. Jeimer Candelario was 2-4 with a walk, as was Rock Shoulders (Shoulders doubled). He had 3 two-out RBI, the difference in the game.
Juan Paniagua continues to struggle this year. He went 2 innings and allowed 3 hits and runs, walking an absurd 5 and striking out none. That's a really, really, really, REALLY bad sign. Nathan Dorris went 2 scoreless, and Starling Peralta went 3 scoreless. His injuries seem to be behind him. Armando Rivero, who received 3.1 million dollars from the Cubs this year, is still 25 and still in Kane County. He went 2 scoreless innings, allowing no hits, walking 1, and striking out 5.
Spokane Indians 1 @ Boise Hawks 3
Kris Bryant went deep again. He had 3 RBI on the day. Daniel Lockhart, Yasiel Balaguert, and Jordan Hankins each had a pair of singles; Balaguert also walked. I'm going to go on a limb right now and say that Balaguert is going to be my darkhorse prospect for next year. He walks a good amount of the time, has solid doubles power, and showed definite improvement over last year. I'm not ready to put him even in a Top 20 of Cubs prospects right now, but it wouldn't shock me if he forced the issue sometime next year.
Dillon Maples might be on the mend. He went 5 innings and allowed 5 hits, 1 run. He walked none and fanned 5. Hopefully he gets another shot at Kane County before the year is over. Corbin Hoffner went 3 innings of 1-hit baseball, and Tyler Bremer really struggled in the 9th, allowing 2 hits and a walk but striking out 3 to seal the 3-1 victory.
AZL Cubs 3 @ AZL Diamondbacks 12
Brett Jackson 2: The Once and Future Hack was 0-4 with 2 SO.
Erick Leal went 4 innings and allowed 7 hits, no walks, 3 runs, 1 earned, and 3 strikeouts.
Comments
josh wrote:
I don’t see them doing it either. It also depends on whether or not they get a protected 1st round pick. If they don’t, I don’t see them signing a guy like Choo. I’m not so certain they’d even give up a 2nd round pick for him. About the only way I see the Cubs going after Choo is if they also get another impact bat. That guy would cost them their 2nd round pick and Choo their 3rd. I’d say that’s unlikely.
Choo will be a DH by the time a 4 or 5 year deal is done.
dmick89Quote Reply
If the Cubs fall out of top ten, highest they can pick is 12 because Toronto failed to sign their #10 pick.
rice in limboQuote Reply
I’m not worried about Cano’s contract would look in 2018. There’s so much time until then that it’s just not something I care about. If the Cubs signed him to a good contract, they’d get more than they paid in the early years and less than what they’re paying in the later years. That’s just how long-term contracts work with free agents.
I feel like if you’re trying to avoid the later years in a contract then you may as well not even bother signing any star players.
Year Salary $WAR
2014 20 35
2015 20 30
2016 20 25
2017 20 20
2018 20 15
2019 20 10
2020 20 5
140 140
….
Year Salary $WAR
2014 20 20
2015 20 20
2016 20 20
2017 20 20
2018 20 20
2019 20 20
2020 20 20
140 140
These two contracts are the same, but the first is much closer to what actually happens.
dmick89Quote Reply
Unless they change the free agency requirements (6 years of service time), nearly all first-time free agents are either at the end of their prime or just past it. I don’t want a large market team like the Cubs to just ignore players who are deserving of 6, 7 or even 8 year contracts just because they’re avoiding the final few years of the deal. This is, as I said, a large market team and they should behave like one. The money they have at their disposal is probably the greatest advantage they have in the NL Central. I don’t want to take that advantage away.
I just want the Cubs to be smart with their money (no 8-year contracts for a player that doesn’t deserve it and don’t throw in a no-trade too).
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
You can make a case that either one of those contracts is better for the team. The first will allow the team to spend a bit less and improve because they’re getting more value than they’re paying for. It’s what happened in 2007 and 2008 with the Cubs. The flip side is Soriano, but that contract wasn’t what kept the Cubs from contending.
dmick89Quote Reply
Edwards and Vogelbach should hang out.
Bill ClayQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
The first one is nice because it seems more tradeable later on.
joshQuote Reply
@ Bill Clay:
They should and the Cubs should hire Prince Fielder, CC Sabathia and Tony Gwynn to be Edwards’ personal trainer this offseason.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I like Cano too. Seems like 2B is also a position that players who are past their prime can still play without hurting the team.
I think he is worth it. I doubt that the Yankees will be outbid for him though. Would you rather have Cano at 6/$160m or Choo/Ellsbury at 4/$72m? Is Cano that much better when Baez, Alcantara, Bryant, and Olt (may) need a spot to play in the infield?
BTW, how is it that Ellsbury hit 32 HRs in 2010 in 660 ABs and only has 4 HRs this year in 410 ABs?
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ josh:
It is up through year 3 and probably 4. After that it would be the second contract and that’s when teams are usually looking to unload those guys.
To me though, it’s about how good the overall contract is. I don’t care how it’s paid since it’s not my money. Backloading saves a team money because of inflation. A dollar now is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. If a team had the option of paying the entire contract up front or at the end of the contract, it should obviously be paid at the end. The more money paid in later years, the less the overall present value of the contract is. From a business perspective, backloading is ideal.
From the team perspective, backloading can be both positive (2007 and 2008 Cubs) and negative (2010-2013 Cubs).
Obviously you don’t want too many backloaded contracts. That was the problem the Cubs had in recent years. That, and a farm system that sucked. I’m perfectly fine with backloading the occasional long-term contract even if we know that contract will be ugly in year 6 through 8.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I don’t have a problem with backloading. I really don’t have a strong opinion either way. People heap blame on Soriano for his contract, but like you said, that wasn’t why they sucked.
joshQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
The problem with this example is that if Cano would sign for 7/140, I imagine he’d already have signed that contract. I think you’re looking at something more like 8/184 or even more. I’m not saying that either contract precludes the Cubs from signing him, per se, and we can absorb some bad contracts, but he’s 31 next year and probably isn’t playing 2B all that much longer (at least at a credible level) in any case. If you sign Cano, though, you should DEFINITELY sign Choo (if possible) also because then you’re instantly a contender, no doubt about it.
MylesQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
A problem with backloading though is public perception. Unfortunately people get mad when they see X players is getting paid Y$ and not providing the appropriate value.
WaLiQuote Reply
I’d see the Cubs signing an outfield bat before an infield one. Choo seems more likely than Cano, even though I think Cano is the better player. More likely it will be whoever looks the most like Nate Schierholtz next off season.
joshQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
I think the Yankees sign Cano, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were outbid. I figure Cano who is a below average to well below average fielder at 2nd now, could still move to the outfield before he’s at risk of moving to 1st and being a DH. I don’t see Choo lasting more than a few years as a fielder.
As for the prospects the Cubs have, I hope they all they work, but you know me. I’ll believe it when I see it. I wouldn’t worry about position just yet. Nobody is blocking Olt and guys like Alcantara and Baez can play anywhere. As for Bryant, he’s so far away yet that I’d guess it’s 3 to 4 years before he’s pushing anyone for a job at Wrigley. If everything works out beautifully. It’s definitely not time to start planning your infield around him.
I probably wouldn’t go more than 4/60 for Choo.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Myles:
You guys are drinking the koolaid even talking about this. Next year will be marginally better than this year, at best.
joshQuote Reply
@ Myles:
The numbers were for illustration purposes. I wasn’t estimating Cano’s contract at all. I have no idea how much he’ll sign for and actually didn’t even think about it.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ WaLi:
I will say that this FO seems less concerned with public perception than years past. They seem committed to their course of action, to me. You could argue the Marmol trade was the exception, perhaps.
joshQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Gotcha. That makes sense.
And this kool-aid does taste funny.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
Hey, by the way, I just looked at his RoS for ZiPS and Steamer and calculated it over 650 PA. It’s about 5.4 WAR. I took it down to 5.2 for next year and dropped it .5 each year thereafter (win value of $5.5 million in 2014 with 7.5% inflation each year). You were basically right on with that guess. 8/188. Well done.
I think you could probably knock that down about 10% since you usually get a bonus to teams for 3+ year contracts. So about 8/170 is what his value is.
I probably wouldn’t do that much for Cano. I wouldn’t mind the Cubs doing what the Phillies did with Cliff Lee, though. Something like 5/125 would be more than fine IMO.
dmick89Quote Reply
That’s awesome, my ballparking skills are fairly sharp I guess.
MylesQuote Reply
Using the little tool Tango came up with (estimating value of contracts over different numbers of years), you add $1 million per year to the value of the contract if you want to shorten the contract a year. So 8/170 is $21.25 million per year. Over 5 years it would be $24.25 million per year or $122.5 million total.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Myles:
I was very surprised at how well you did there considering the huge contract. I wouldn’t even have known where to guess. I know JV threw out 6/160. That’s a little high, but still a pretty good guess.
I guess I had an idea in mind about what I’d be willing to sign him to, which was probably no more than 6/140. Would it get it done? I have no idea. I do know that I’d have no problem at all with a huge contract like that on the books for 6 more years. 5/125 would be even better.
dmick89Quote Reply
I haven’t yet looked at what Choo might be worth, but I’d probably not sign him to more than 4/60.
dmick89Quote Reply
Comments over at BN are going wild with the “Bundy is available” rumor. Some of them said Shark for Bundy straight up which is a terrible, terrible deal.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Doing the same thing that I did for Cano, I get 4/48 for Choo and by year 3 he’s only league average. I wouldn’t go more than 4/48 or so for him (that includes 10% bonus).
dmick89Quote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
Yeah, didn’t Bundy just get TJS? No way I’d trade F7 for just him.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m hoping Garza pitches well tonight so TEX can move him to a contender before the deadline.
Bill ClayQuote Reply
I really wonder if we will see Javy in the bigs in September. I am leaning no just because he has still only played SS and i see no reason to believe that they are moving Castro or putting him at SS or 2B without him playing it in the minors.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
Probability is around 0.005%.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
He’s in AA and has some stuff to do, not to mention not even on 40-man. A call-up would be extremely shocking.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
WaLiQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
I think he should be promoted to AAA, but I wouldn’t even think about calling him up until mid-2014, and I’d really like to delay that service clock like we did Rizzo if we aren’t looking especially competitive.
MylesQuote Reply
Would love to get Glasnow and Taillion for Shark
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
I’m find with trading F7. I still have a hard time believing his success. But on the other hand, you have to wonder if that doesn’t suddenly make the Cubs a much more uncomfortable place to work:
“Work your hardest and prove to us that you can succeed and we promise to trade you off for someone we like marginally better.”
joshQuote Reply
^there is an economic issue to it as well. Shark about to start getting expensive. Those other clowns are cost controlled.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
Yeah, there’s a chance, but it’s one that has a lot of zeroes in front of it. I don’t know how many to be sure, but it’s a lot.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Myles:
I’d like to see him figure out how to take a pitch before he gets promoted again. I know that every time he swings the bat, he’s hitting a home run, but there a dozen reasons for him to learn how to take a pitch. I agree with RC. He’s got some things he can work on and at some point, the excuse of moving him up to challenge him becomes questionable.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
Those other clowns are also unproven.
@ josh:
I still don’t understand the reasoning. It’s not like Shark was ever Joe Mather. From day 1, he was talented. From day 1, he was mismanaged. Everything from statistics to scouting shows that his stuff is “ace”-style nastiness. He’s not done progressing either.
This is my own theory, but I assume last year and this year he is still tweaking his weaknesses and playing with pitches and locations he wouldn’t normally do in a must win situation. I bet the Cubs FO actively tells him that this is year to experiment.
Like mb said earlier, we should not act like a small market team. We can afford to pay Shark. For Taillon to be as good as Shark is now is not likely. While the playoffs are a crapshoot, you have a better chance when you have the best pitcher on the mound.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Wow.
Frank Castillo ——> dead
http://www.kvia.com/news/former-mlb-pitcher-el-paso-native-frank-castillo-has-died/-/391068/21230038/-/776yg/-/index.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
What are the Cubs goals as far as contending? Is it something they want to do next year? If so, it’s a pretty easy decision: you can’t trade Samardzija (assuming a team doesn’t offer some ridiculous package that you have to take). Is it something you want to do in 2015? Again, it’s an easy decision. If you don’t care too much about the next couple seasons, then it’s not so easy.
I wouldn’t trade him. At some point you’ve got to stop grabbing prospects and actually put together an MLB team. If the Cubs want to specialize in nothing other than getting a shitload of prospects then maybe they can start a Future’s League.
The Cubs have very few pitching prospect anywhere close to ready.
dmick89Quote Reply
JonKneeV wrote:
I disagree with that. I’d say it’s more like “From day 1087, he was mismanaged.” Even that might be a stretch. It’s not like the Cubs scouts were the only ones who felt Samardzija was a reliever only by the time they committed fully to it. It was pretty much all the scouts at that point. So I don’t think he was mismanaged at all to be honest. He’s a guy who sucked despite his talent. Not enough strikeouts. Way too many walks. Several years later he figured something out and became as good as the Cubs had hoped when they drafted him.
It happens. It doesn’t mean he was mismanaged.
dmick89Quote Reply
F7 remained solidly in the rotation until 2010 (midseason, I think): http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=samard001jef
Despite the poor numbers, I’d say the Cubs definitely gave the guy a chance and then some to prove he could start. He didn’t take advantage of it until 2012. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3254&position=P
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Jesus
dmick89Quote Reply
Hodge Podge (Shelleyville SC): Where would Samardzija rank if eligible?
Jim Callis: Good question. I’ve always thought of him as more of a reliever than a starter, and I’m not sure he’s ever going to command two quality pitches on a consistent basis. I’d probably rank him seventh, between Lee and Watkins, giving him some credit for performing in Triple-A and at times in Chicago. — 2010 Cubs Prospects Chat
dmick89Quote Reply
New Shit
MylesQuote Reply
Yeah, the mismanaged argument comes up occasionally for other players. I don’t know how you can commit to that without way more information. Anyway, it’s moot. He could be perfectly managed now and still have problems going forward.
I agree with MB, about it comes down to whether or not we compete next year. Trading Garza make me think next year is not the year.
joshQuote Reply
The question is when do people start getting ready for the show?
In my guess: Alcantara, Soler and Baez mid 2014
Bryant and Almora mid 2015…
So then it becomes how do you supplement the rotation.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply