Iowa Cubs 4 @ Salt Lake Bees 5
Ty Wright went 2-2 with 2 homers. Mike Olt has a .249 OPS and has an ISO of 0 over his last ten. Edwin Mayonnaise had a double. Nobody else is remotely worth mentioning.
Tennessee Smokies 0 @ Jacksonville Suns 1
Matt Szczur was 2-4. Arismendy Alcantara was 1-4 with a SB and has yet to really work his way out of the cold snap he's been in lately. His OPS on the season has dipped below .800 at this point. Here's hoping he turns it around soon. Javier Baez did Javier Baez things, going 0-4 with 3 Ks. That makes 38 in about 110 PAs. Ouch. Christian Villanueva and Rubi Silva were both 2-4, Silva with a two-bagger. Brett Jackson's Looming Sadness was 0-3 with a walk and a K.
Eduardo Figueroa tried his best to keep the Smokies in it but took the loss, going 5 and allowing only a run on 4 hits and 2 walks. He K'ed 2. The bullpen was perfect the rest of the way. Dayan Diaz worked the sixth and seventh, striking out 3. And Tony Zych finished it off with 2 Ks in the ninth.
Bradenton Marauders 7 @ Daytona Cubs 9
Lively bats in this one, which was a change of pace for yesterday. Every D-Cub had at least a hit, and everyone but Elliot Soto, Dustin Geiger, and Pin-Chieh Chen had at least one go for a double. Zeke DeVoss was 3-4 with 2 doubles and a walk. Bijan Rademacher was 2-5 with a 2B. Chadd Krist was 3-5 with 3 doubles.
The big story in this one, though, was the Cubs debut of Corey Black, the arm coming back in the Alfonso Soriano trade to the Yankees. The good news is Black struck out 8 and only allowed 3 hits in four innings of work. The bad news is that two of those hits were home runs, including a three-run blast in the third allowed to Jose Osuna after starting the inning with two walks. He walked three and allowed 4 runs total. Ben Wells got the win despite being awful, allowing 3 runs (1 earned) on four walks, 2 hits, and zero punchouts. Lendy Castillo worked the final 3 without a hit, walking one and striking out 4.
Los Angeles Dodgers 6 @ Chicago Cubs 2
Travis Wood had by far his worst outing of the season yesterday, lasting only three and a third and allowing 5 runs on 7 hits, 5 walks, and 2 strikeouts. Michael Bowden got out of the fourth (no hits, a walk, and a strikeout in 0.2 IP), but hit Yasiel Puig and allowed a sac-fly that charged Wood's fifth run. Eduardo Sanchez worked the next two in mop-up, allowing a run on two hits. James Russell, Blake Parker, and Pedro Strop were perfect the rest of the way, tallying four strikeouts between them.
Offensively, it was a confusing day, with only two runs scoring despite 14 hits, 5 for extra bases. The Junior Lake Show continued with a 4-5 day, all singles. Anthony Rizzo was 0-5. Starlin Castro was 1-4 with a double. Cole Gillespie was 3-4 with two doubles. Darwin Barney was 2-4 with a two-bagger. David DeJesus was 1-4 with a walk.
Kane County Cougars 4 @ Wisconsin Timber Rattlers 7
Gioskar Amaya went 2-5. Albert Almora bested him by one, going 3-5. Rock Shoulders was 1-4 with a double. Marco Hernandez was 1-4. Oliver Zapata and Jeimer Candelario were both 1-3, Candelario drawing 2 walks and Zapata only 1.
On the pitching side, Michael Heesch was pretty lousy, allowing 5 runs in 6 innings. He walked and struck out 2 each. Al Yevoli worked 2.1 innings and allowed 2 more runs on 3 hits, a walk, and 4 Ks. Steve Perakslis got the final 2 outs, allowing 2 hits on a walk and a strikeout.
Boise Hawks @ Everett AquaSox
AZL Giants 4 @ AZL Cubs 6
DSL Cubs 4 @ DSL Brewers 3
DSL Cubs 9 @ DSL Brewers 5
Nothing really exciting going on here.
Comments
109 strikeouts in 78 games. K% = 33.3%.
That rate is about the same as Jackson’s was in AAA (32.something%) after being roughly equal to one another prior to AAA (24ish%). Jackson’s sample is larger in AAA so it tells us more, but these two have me wondering if players who have really high strikeout rates below AAA see a larger than expected increase in AAA.
dmick89Quote Reply
Russell Branyan was at around 33% prior to AAA and then it increased to just over 41% in his first season (453 PA) at AAA. That’s a larger than expected increase.
dmick89Quote Reply
Chris Davis didn’t see a huge increase until he got to MLB. That’s about all I care to look into this.
dmick89Quote Reply
Back to the FIP discussion, yes, you could do it per PA, but I still don’t see the point. I don’t like the idea of having new stats just for variety or entertainment or whatever. They have to tell us something.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The justifications for FIP (factoring out fielding and sequencing) don’t really apply to hitters. Hitters also have considerable control over BABIP and extra base hits, so FIP against would be misleading, if anything.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Yeah I agree with this. I wouldn’t call for it to be a standard or whatever. It’s just a way at looking at TTO hitters is all. It actually would suffer from the same problems that wOBA has that I hate.
By the way, instead of using PA for FIP-against I’d probably just use (outs + double plays)/3. (AB – H + DP)/3. Or outs/3 (AB – H)/3 if you don’t have access to DP info.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
… also, the usefulness of FIP-against would be trying to figure out a metric that translates to runs/game like ERA/FIP… but in that case I guess we should just use RC/PA scaled to RC/G.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
So nevermind. (dying laughing).
Apparently I look tired.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
RE24 uber alles
“what is RE24”
“How many more runs this guy is worth than an average guy, over a year.”
“Cool”
It’d be useful to have RE24/G, I guess, for a rate version.
MylesQuote Reply
RE24 is very situation-dependent. For instance, a bases-loaded walk is (by definition) worth as much as a solo home run. Linear weights is still the gold standard for comprehensive hitting stats, I think.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I don’t like anything, is what I’m saying.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
But I really LIKE that RE24 is situation-dependent. I also don’t like that the farther you stray from the extreme, the less useful LW is.
RE24 measures how useful any event is by comparing the RE of the current state with the RE of the state right before it. It’s so pure that you don’t have to think about anything else. It’s not perfect, of course (depends on the how balls are played, how the other players run the bases), but it’s just so elegant. I’m a sucker for it.
MylesQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
A true Cubs fan.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
Me too.
dmick89Quote Reply
My primary concern about RE24 is that it contains stuff that the batter has no control over. The hitter doesn’t choose which situation he’s hitting in and some hitters will get in better situations based on lineup strength and hitting order. And I think situational hitting is very chancy. If there is a significant situational hitting skill, it probably takes several years to tell the noise from the data, and it probably isn’t big enough to matter much anyway. I want the best hitters hitting regardless of the base out state.
Short version: I see RE24 as more of a “story stat” than a “skill stat,” at least on the short-to-medium term.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I think Mike Olt is a bust. I thought he was Brett Jackson 2.0 before this trade was made.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
A’s abusing Garza with the bunt. 1st two hitters bunted (one reached), then single, hr, failed bunt attempt/single.
GWQuote Reply
Borbon got sent down, and the Fox faces imply it’s because of a TOOTBLAN? Did that happen?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
“When you’re down by four runs and there’s no outs you can stand on second base, because we’ve got to get a bunch of hits,” Sveum said. “It’s not the brightest thing I’ve ever seen.”
(dying laughing) okay
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
It’s because he’s Real Bad
MylesQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
Sveum’d
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
That’s fine. Sometimes I’d much prefer we use those when discussing players. I get tired of hearing every year how a pitcher with 5+ runs allowed per 9 is really having a great season because his FIP is 3.5. There’s a better way to talk about that. A more informative way.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
I’ll like the trade one way or another. I didn’t think Garza was worth all that much over half a season to begin with so i think the Cubs did very well in their return. They weren’t going to get a blue chip prospect. Not for half a season of Garza and probably not for 3 years of Garza. That said, I’ll admit that I’m more than a little concerned about Olt. He does have a little more power than Jackson, but one thing I really thought would help Jackson out was having the platoon advantage as much as he would. It’s the opposite for Olt.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I think they did fine. One decent lower-level prospect, a potential end of the rotation starter, and a reclamation project, of sorts. Not great. About what was to be expected.
GWQuote Reply
This game has been painful to watch.
JQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
The difference here is that pitchers allow real runs, while RE24 only measures hypothetical runs–no less hypothetical than linear weights. Contrary to Myles’ definition, RE24 is not how many runs a batter is “worth” (whatever that means), but how the run expectancy changes over the course of his plate appearances. A 2-out, bases-empty walk won’t move the RE needle much, but if they next guy hits a home run, that walk turned out to be worth quite a bit.
I guess what I’m saying is, maybe R + RBI – HR is the one stat to rule them all.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
2 more bunts against Garza in the 7th
GWQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
It measures the outcome and when talking only about how a player performed in one season, that’s all I care about.
As for lineup, I don’t have a problem with that impact any more than I do penalizing 1st basemen because of their position.
If you want to evaluate a season in comparison to previous ones or are interested in what impact the current season will have on future ones, re24 is far from the best stat for that.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
“measures the outcome”? The only thing it measures is the change in hypothetical “expected” runs, which, as I said, are no less hypothetical than linear weights runs.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Castro can’t hit a fucking fastball. I’m starting to worry that this is a problem that won’t go away.
JQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
That change is the outcome.
Anyway, I don’t care so I’m out.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ J:
He’s been bad this year for sure.
dmick89Quote Reply
The change is an outcome. I don’t see RE24 as measuring the outcome more than any other (valid) stat.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
That’s not completely true. It definitely incorporates actual runs more than linear weights. In RE24, a batter that singles home a runner from second with no outs is credited with that run and then docked for the decrease in run expectancy going forward (i think it ends up being around .75), whereas in lw he is credited with 0.5 runs (or whatever it is) regardless of what happened around him. Clearly, “outcomes” that are actual runs weigh more heavily in RE24.
Having said that, I agree with you in that I’m not sure why you would use it unless you are simply telling the story of what happened. I think of RE24 of being simultaneously more granular and less tangible than R + RBI – HR, if that makes any sense (dying laughing)
GWQuote Reply
How long before Alvin reports someone? http://allthingsd.com/20130803/twitter-updates-rules-to-crack-down-on-abuse/
dmick89Quote Reply
cubs making a run at the twins for the 5th pick
GWQuote Reply
Anyone know anything fun to do in the Norfolk area on Saturday? Wife and I are there for the weekend…
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Booze at the Boozetarium. The kids love it!
joshQuote Reply
I was sensing tank mode very much in today’s game. Anything to get back in the top 5 picks should be fine.
Clear nonsense choices by Sveum. Letting F7 bat in the 6th and not bringing him out in the 7th is a clear move towards defeat. Then letting Castillo bat with RISP instead of PH with Navarro later. Karros was all over them for not bringing in Navarro against the lefty. Rightly so.
The Cubs are doing what they can to lose. I approve. For now. And it sucks to watch. But I’ll probably still watch nearly every game.
JQuote Reply
@ SVB:
There’s a great little diner downtown that does fabulous breakfasts for cheap. And lots of navy ships and crap like that on the water. That’s all I know because I’ve only spent exactly 12 hours in Norfolk.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
The difference between the 6th and 12th worst in the standings is just 2 games. The Cubs are currently 6th worst and would of course get the 6th pick in the draft, but there are a bunch of teams right there.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Pretty sure they can pull it out! (dying laughing)
mobile svbQuote Reply
I’m on the Cubs. (dying laughing)
Donnie MurphyQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
sogard bunted twice against garza yesterday
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
All that for bunting?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
it appears so. in the first inning crisp bunted for a hit and then sogard sacrificed him over, with garza making an awkward throw to first (of course). in the dugout, all the a’s seemed to be really enjoying it. i didn’t see the second bunt, in which sogard squeezed home a run, but apparently garza shouted something at him afterwards (he told reporters he was asking him where a good place to eat in oakland was).
also, balfour got pretty close to hitting profar in the head twice in the ninth, so could be some fireworks today.
GWQuote Reply
http://www.lonestarball.com/2013/8/3/4586636/matt-garza-calling-out-sogards-wife-on-twitter#176660083
(dying laughing)
GWQuote Reply
Castro on the bench today
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=29403785&query=garza
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Valbuena ——> DL
Watkins —-> Cubs
BerseliusQuote Reply
neue scheisse: http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/jot-cubs-minor-league-recap-8-3-13.html
sitrickQuote Reply