Nashville Sounds 0 @ Iowa Cubs 3 (Game 1)
Mark Zagunis was 1-3 with a double and run scored. Zagunis has done nothing but hit since being drafted by the Cubs in the 3rd round of the 2014 draft. He was signed for $0.6 million and aside from a 2-game, 9 plate appearance stint to begin his career, here are his wRC+ at each stop along with the way.
- 2014 A- (191 PA): 145
- 2014 A (62): 149
- 2015 AFL (66): 139
- 2015 A+ (512): 146
- 2016 AA (211): 154
- 2016 AAA (58): 162
He hasn’t hit for a lot of power and won’t for a lot of home runs if or when he gets called up to the big leagues. He’s done it with an impressive walk rate (16.2%, 16.1%, 15.6%, 14.2%, 13.8%). He also hits for a lot of doubles, which gives him a respectable to good ISO. He tends to put the ball in play too. There’s a lot to like about Zagunis.
Dan Vogelbach was 1-2 with a walk. In the comments, cerulean was advocating for the Cubs to call up Vogelbach and use him at 1st base. He was suggesting the Cubs give him the intro to Major League Baseball that they gave Kyle Schwarber a year ago. Rizzo is currently day to day with a sore back so it would have been a good time to do it, but I think there are at least a couple differences between Vogelbach and Schwarber.
First, Schwarber was only called up early last year because Miguel Montero was headed to the DL and the Cubs needed a second catcher behind David Ross. Second, Schwarber was a significantly better prospect. Schwarber’s wRC+’s were 197, 166, 188 and 173 before getting called up. His walk rate and strikeout rate were similar to Vogelbach. Vogelbach’s wRC”s have been 167, 189, 128, 166, 110 126, 140 and 155. At his best early on he was even better than Schwarber, but for the most part, he was a bit worse. I don’t think that’s too surprising. Schwarber had more power and was a better overall athlete. Third, and already mentioned, the Cubs had a clear need for Schwarber and no such need currently exists for Vogelbach.
Aaron Brooks pitched 3 innings, allowed 2 hits and struckout 1. Miguel Mejia pitched 2 innings and walked one while giving up 2 hits. He struckout 4. Corey Black picked up his first save with 1 inning, 1 hit and 1 strikeout.
Nashville Sounds 7 @ Iowa Cubs 4 (Game 2)
The Cubs split this doubleheader and fell to 34-37.
Zagunis and Vogelbach were each 0-4 in the second game. Zagunis had an RBI and 2 strikeouts. Matt Murton was 2-3 with 2 runs scored and Jeimer Candelario was 2-3.
Starling Peralta gave up 6 hits, a walk and 5 runs in 2.2 innings. He walked 1 and struckout 2.
Pensacola Blue Wahoos 6 @ Tennessee Smokies 4
Jacob Hannemann had quite a day. He was 2-4 with 2 home runs, which gives him 10 on the season. He also walked, struckout, drove in 2 and scored 2. Chesny Young was 2-4 with 2 strikeouts and a run scored. Billy McKinney was 1-3 with a walk, strikeout and run scored.
Yesterday I made the mistake of reading an article by Phil Rogers that was talking about Cubs prospects and in it he dismissed McKinney because he hasn’t had as good a season as people hoped. The same things were said about Albert Almora last year, which as I mentioned then, were unfair. They’re also unfair to McKinney this year.
While it’s true he has not hit as well as some hoped, he’s not yet 22 years old and has shown considerable improvement in some aspects in AA. His wRC+ is league average at 100. The only thing absent from McKinney’s game right now and his game from last year or the year before is that he’s hitting for less power.
I’m not really sure that’s his fault. McKinney had hit 10 home runs at the age of 20 in High A for the A’s before being traded. It was in 333 plate appearances, but he’s only hit 9 since in about 900 plate appearances. My guess is that he was rather lucky in hitting those home runs and we shouldn’t expect similar power from him. He’s still hitting fewer extra base hits this season and if I had to guess, I’d say some patience by us will be rewarded later on.
Ian Happ was promoted to Tennessee and got a pinch hit plate appearance in. He walked.
Tyler Skulina threw 2.1 innings and allowed 4 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks. He struckout none and allowed 2 home runs. Juan Paniagua continues to impress. He threw 1.2 innings, allowed no hits, a walk and struckout 2.
Joe Nathan is out on rehab assignment with the Cubs and in his first appearance this year outside Arizona, he threw an inning, allowed no hits and struckout 2.
Carolina Mudcats 2 @ Myrtle Beach Pelicans 1
The Pelicans had 7 hits and two players had two each. Gleyber Torres was 2-4 and Charcer Burks was 2-3 with a double. The only other extra base hit belonged to Daniel Spingola who was 1-3 with a double and Spingola scored the Pelicans only run.
Jonathan Martinez dropped to 3-5 after 7.1 innings of 2-hit baseball. He walked 3 and struckout 8, but he gave up a home run and 2 runs in total. Jordan Minch threw the final 1.2 innings and allowed no hits and struckout 10.
South Bend Cubs 11 @ Dayton Dragons 1
South Bend improved to 42-28 after beating up on Dayton. The Cubs had 11 runs on 11 hits and they took 9 walks as well. Dayton also committed 3 errors. Oddly enough, this was a 1-1 game entering the 8th. Unhappy with the score, the Cubs made it 11-1 entering the bottom of the 8th with a sweet 10-spot in the top half of the 8th.
Carlos Sepulveda was 2-5 with a triple, walk, 2 RBI and a run scored. P.J. Higgins was 2-5 with a double, strikeout and 2 runs scored. Ian Rice was 1-2 with 3 walks and 2 runs scored.
Eloy Jimenez has been playing so well so far it’s surprising he hasn’t been promoted yet. He was 2-5 with a double, home run, 3 RBI and 2 runs scored. We could complain that he’s not walking all that much, but he’s killing the baseball right now. He might have to be a little more challenged to begin to learn to lay off some pitches.
Josh Silver was 2-2 with 3 walks, a double, an RBI and a run scored. Bryant Flete was 2-4 with a double, RBI and run scored.
Spokane Indians 11 @ Eugene Emeralds 9
Spokane put up an 8-spot in the 5th to take a 9-2 lead, but the Emeralds wouldn’t quit. It was 9-5 after the 5th before the Indians scored a couple more to take a 11-5 lead after the top of the 7th. Eugene tried to come back, but it was too big of a lead. They had 16 hits and their starter was outstanding.
Andruw Monasterio was 3-5 with 2 RBI, 2 runs scored and a strikeout. Wladimir Galindo was 2-5 with 3 strikeouts. Yeller Peguero was 3-4 with a walk and 3 runs scored. Robert Garcia was 2-5 with a triple, 2 RBI, 2 strikeouts and a run.
Dylan Cease was as good as you could have hoped for last night. He threw 4 innings, allowed 3 hits and a run. He walked none while striking out 7. It was his second start of the season. The 20-year old right-hander was drafted in the 6th round in 2014 and signed for 1st round money ($1.6 million). No one threw harder than him among high school pitchers in the draft and only an injury to his elbow allowed the Cubs to draft him in the 6th round. They’ve taken it slowly with him for good reason. He was hitting 98 easily last night and got a lot of ground balls.
The next three pitchers were terrible so let’s just skip ahead to Scott Frazier who threw the final 2 innings of the game and allowed a hit, walked nobody and struckout 4.
AZL Diamondbacks 12 @ AZL Cubs 6
Weird day at the plate for the Cubs. They scored 6 runs on 5 hits, but the Dbacks only made 1 error. The Cubs only took 5 walks, but struckout 13 times.
Luis Ayala was 2-5 with a triple, 2 RBI, a strikeout and a run scored. Rafael Mejia was 1-2 with 2 walks, a strikeout and a run scored. Ruben Reyes was 1-3 with a double, walks, 2 RBI, a strikeout and 2 runs scored.
Former first rounder Aaron Crow (2009 Royals, 12th overall) is trying to get healthy with the Cubs. He threw the firs inning and allowed a hit and a strikeout. He’s now 29 years old and hasn’t pitched in MLB since 2014, but like Joe Nathan, if he could make it back this season, he could provide quite a boost to a bullpen that needs a little help. I wouldn’t count on it, but it’s possible.
Allt he other pitchers were either just OK or terrible so let’s move on.
The Cubs had 11 strikeouts at the plate and no walks. They also had only 6 hits and only Orian Nunez‘s double was for extra bases. Rafael Narea was 2-4 and he managed not to strikeout.
Yunior Perez got the start and threw 4 innings, allowed 6 hits and 2 runs. he didn’t walk anybody, struckout 4 and gave up a home run. Edison Novas pitched 3 innings, allowed a solo home run (no other hits), a walk and struckout 3. Fernando Calderon struckout the side in the 8th.
The Cubs2 team scored only 1 run on 4 hits in this loss and both teams were 11-6 after the game.
Luis Diaz was 1-3 with a walk. Fernando Kelli was 1-2 with a walk and drove in the only run.
Emilio Ferrebus fell to 0-2 after a rather bad start. He gave up 5 runs (3 earned) in 2.2 innings. He allowed 7 hits and struckout 3.
Comments
So, uh, White Sox + framing = no bueno.
Of note for the Cubs: The D-bags zone was nearly two std devs worse after trading Montero.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Another crucial difference between Schwarber and Vogelbach—the latter has worked his way completely through the organization. I wonder if Vogelbach would have been called up last June instead of Schwarber if he was not dealing with that lower body injury and put up the numbers he’s showing now. If you recall, Schwarber would not have been called up initially if they didn’t need a DH for six games and his bat was so good, it made sense to find a way to keep him up—the Montero injury just brought him up a little sooner than expected.
The Cubs don’t have six straight interleague road games, so the initial excuse will have to be different. Rizzo dealing with some back trouble in the midst of an unbroken stretch of road games—hotel beds, ’nuff said—seems like a good one, even if just to see what he’s got. And what I think he’s got is a helluva trade value for any team needing a highly productive bat for the next six years.
His makeup seems good, as evidenced by keeping his weight in check—no small feat. And his OBP and K/BB are stellar, better than Schwarber. While his power pales, he has a decent chance at 20–25 homeruns in 500–600 plate appearances. I tend to reject many of the “needs consistent playing time” narratives, so would welcome his bat off the bench, especially when the Cubs get back to blowing teams out late in the game. The timing couldn’t be better than now to get 60–80 at bats before the deadline.
Could Vogelbach could be the centerpiece in a trade for Andrew Miller if he just rakes? It would take more than just him, but we are also talking about one of the most dominant lefties ever as evidenced by his 47% K-BB%. Isn’t that motivation enough?
ceruleanQuote Reply
I’m OK with them calling Vogelbach up for a short period if it gets the bullpen back down to a more reasonable 7 (why do bullpens today even have 7?). If Rizzo needs a day off, I’m sure he’d be fine over there. He’d be a nice lefty to have off the bench as well. I just think the situations were different and the quality of the two players were significantly different. Schwarber was and still is a legitimate 40+ home run threat. Vogelbach just doesn’t have that kind of power.
As for Miller, I’d be happy with the Cubs just getting healthy to be honest. If they’re not going to be getting Soler back, I think they have to go after a left fielder who can hit for power and play every day. Even if they get Soler back, I’d probably prioritize LF over bullpen. I’d like to see the Cubs do both, but since we’re not hearing anything about Soler, I’m guessing the injury is a lot worse than they let on.
dmick89Quote Reply
Fuck the heck!?
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
I see your point about a LF over a LHRP, however…
The depth in the outfield [expected to return sooner than later]:
RF: Heyward, Almora, Szczur, Bryant, [Soler], Coghlan
CF: [Fowler], Almora, Heyward, Szczur, Bryant
LF: [Soler], Almora, Bryant, Coghlan, Szczur, probably Contreras
That’s omitting both Zobrist and Baez. Yes, it’s righthanded heavy, particularly with Fowler out. I wonder if there is a lefthanded bat that they could promote, especially if Rizzo’s back continues to balk.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
If the Cubs have as many untouchables as the reports suggest, it’s going to cost them a lot of players to get something good in return. Think what you want of Jorge Soler’s future, but a career .740ish OPS corner outfielder with subpar defense and trouble staying healthy probably isn’t going to bring a whole lot in return.
The fact the Cubs appear to have so many players they’re unwilling to trade tells me they’ll go after a midlevel reliever and maybe a 4th or 5th outfielder.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I agree (sans the OF, probably). It doesn’t hurt to dream though.
I think a Doolittle trade is conceivable.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I think Almora could be a good CF some day, but I don’t think that day is today. I think over time we’ll see his numbers regress this season to the point where you don’t want to see him hitting. It’s not like he put up huge numbers in the minors. I think Szczur is a 5th outfielder and Coghlan is a decent 4th or 5th outfielder. There’s a lot of crap at the end right now for the Cubs. I don’t want to include Almora in that group because I think he has a future with some team (he’d be the guy I’d be most willing to trade among the prospects), but it’s not like should be expecting much production this year.
I think you’re betting on these guys being better over the next few months than I am, and that includes Fowler, Heyward, Baez and the others to some extent.
I think Contreras is the best bet to give the Cubs some value in the outfield the rest of the way, but I’d rather see him catch every day.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d say Almora’s D is too special to send down. I wouldn’t mind Szczur or even Soler getting traded just to keep him up. I don’t think I am overvaluing the future offensive production of the OF as a group, either, I just cannot see delta of need being solved by a trade for somebody else (who is available)—it feels like shuffling deck chairs—if this is the Titanic, so fucking be it. If everybody goes down because of injury, that is a different story, but I am assuming that an average of one OF will be down the rest of the way (in addition to Schwarber) and one OF will be traded.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I think Almora’s D is too good to send down, too. I’m not worried about anything like a “consistent need to play” as you mentioned. I also don’t buy that stuff. If a player is ultimately good enough to play every day, a year or so of part time play is not going to be a major roadblock. Almora just seems better suited for the time being for the role Szczur currently has. Ideally he’d be finishing out the year in Iowa, but the Cubs need him and that’s that. If the Cubs could acquire a starting outfielder, they could make the decision to keep him or Szczur in Chicago. Almora could go to Iowa and play every day at that point if the Cubs wanted that. Or they could keep him for his defense (that’s what I’d do) and trade or DFA Szczur.
The thing is, I don’t think a starting outfielder or a reliever are necessary for the Cubs to get into the playoffs. They’re good to go for the playoffs now. That’s another reason why I don’t think the Cubs will be trading much at the deadline. It’s probably not the smartest move to trade a bunch of assets for something that isn’t entirely necessary. it’s not like adding Miller is going to take the Cubs 15-18% odds of winning the World Series and move the needle that far. It will barely move it. A strong argument could be made that it’s a waste of resources to acquire any talent at this point. Oh well.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo is out again.
dmick89Quote Reply
If he starts a new stretching regimen though, watch out.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
New stretching regimen = Superstar Soler
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
Unleash Mack Newton!
uncle daveQuote Reply
Just so you guys know, there may be some downtime over the next few days. Hopefully not more than that, but if this login issue can’t get fixed for good by tomorrow morning, I’m going to have to transfer it again.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Drag. Sorry it’s been such a pain in the ass.
uncle daveQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
Heyward
Bryant (1b)
Zobrist
Contreras
Coghlan
Baez
Russell
Hendricks
Almora
berseliusQuote Reply
Thanks. It’s sucked. The worst thing about is that they’ve been awesome all throughout. Easily the best service I’ve ever gotten from a host. Most of them suck at getting back with you, but these guys are very quick and they’ve spent a lot of hours trying to fix it. I can’t complain about them because they’ve been so good with me.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
FTR, the logouts don’t bother all that much. And I do enjoy that Pottery Barn mailing list.
ceruleanQuote Reply
game thread is up: http://obstructedview.net/cubs-marlins-game-thread-6-24-16/
dmick89Quote Reply
New shat.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Bryant!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply