This is the first in a 5-part series that will look at each of the Cubs’ divisional rivals this season. I’m going to start from the top and work my way down, so we can end on some happier notes. Today, we look at the Cardinals, who were the class of this division and appear to be in a class of their own at the top of the division again in 2015.
C
http://gty.im/481767797
Yadier Molina is one of the best catchers in all of baseball, but he quietly had a pedestrian 2014 campaign. I’m not sure if it’s a symptom of the fact that he played in 136 or more games each of the last 5 seasons, or just the fact that he’s 32 now, but his wRC+ in 2014 was just 102, 31 points lower than the previous year.
This isn’t to say Molina isn’t a tremendously valuable catcher; he is. Molina is just an average pitch framer, but he calls an excellent game. He’s extremely difficult to run on, maybe the best the game has seen in 20 years for throwing out baserunners. He also simply does not pass balls. Molina is a HOF-class defensive catcher, and his good offense is basically all gravy. He’d be a Top 10 catcher if he had a wOBA in the .260s; his projected wOBA of .331 means he’s still an elite player at the position.
Tony Cruz is Molina’s backup for 2015, and he’s nothing to write home about. He’s a below-average framer, an average game manager, and he has a problem with PBs and WPs. He also doesn’t really have a stick to worry about. The games in which Cruz starts instead of Molina should elicit a sigh of relief from opposing managers everywhere.
1B
http://gty.im/457140214
Gone are the heady days of The Machine putting up MVP-level numbers every season. In Pujols’ place is Matt Adams, who is a considerable player (if unremarkable) in his own right. Adams does one thing well, and that’s hit. His defense is among the worst in baseball (what I’d imagine Vogelbach looks like at first), but he has a big stick. Adams hit .288/.321/.457 last season, which was good for a hair or two over the league’s line at the same position.
If you’re looking for a reason to rag on Adams, one need stop only at his walk rate, which has been middling to horrible at every stop along his career. He took the free pass only 4.6% of the time last year, which means Adams is supremely reliant on high BABIPs to take him where he wants to go. Last year his BABIP was .338 (and .337 the year before), but that’s not sustainable for his body type unless he has Gwynn-esque contact ability. Matt Adams is not Tony Gwynn, so you can probably expect his average to be walked back a fair bit. He also doesn’t have real home run power – he’s good for maybe 20 bombs a season, but his power is more reliant on doubles in the gap. When it’s all said and done, Adams figures to be a league average first baseman or a shade below, but at pre-arb prices. That’s not a bad place to be.
Mark Reynolds is a capable backup for Adams, and he should probably see a good amount of work against lefties. As a starter in Milwaukee last year, Reynolds continued his descent to mediocrity, though he was insanely hit-unlucky (an obscene .218 BABIP). That would make sense if he had broken a leg or something, but he still hit 22 HR and stole 5 bases so I’m not sure what happened. If Adams goes down or slumps, Reynolds is about as good a replacement as you’ll find. Reynolds doesn’t have a lofty platoon split (though he is definitely better against lefties), but Matt Adams does. Adams hits lefties to the tune of .197/.227/.326. That is absolutely putrid, so you have to figure Reynolds will see 95% of the PAs against southpaws.
2B
http://gty.im/456769922
Kolten Wong is a dynamic young player. Coming through the minors, he didn’t have great walk rates, but always made great contact with the ball. He isn’t the fastest player, but gets great reads and is super smart, so his range plays up. His numbers in the minors weren’t great, but people expected (and still expect) him to get better as he gets more comfortable in the majors. Basically, Kolten Wong is Albert Almora at second base.
I like Wong a considerable amount. He reminds a lot of the Starlin Castro package (albeit with less power); he’s going to put the ball in play, he’s going to frustrate you at the worst of times, and when he puts it all together he makes the game look easy. The lack of walks led to a .249/.292/.388 line last year (not pretty), but the defense resulted in Wong still being a league average player despite only notching 433 PAs. I don’t think he’ll be that great at second as the sample size improves, but he’s unquestionably an asset there.
When Wong isn’t playing, Pete Kozma is. Kozma is, to put it charitably, among the top 100 second basemen in the league. He had one of the very worst offensive seasons in the past decade in 2013 (.217/.275/.273 in 448 PA, 1 HR), and his pitcher-esque offensive abilities rob whatever defensive value he provides and more. Travis Wood is a better hitter than Pete Kozma. The Cardinals want Kozma as a defensive replacement and absolutely nothing else, and one of the clearest paths to a Cardinals team being worse than the Cubs is for Baez to hit his 80th percentile projection while Wong hits his 20th, because there is simply no replacement for the Cardinals waiting in the wings.
SS
http://gty.im/455448776
Jhonny Peralta is one of the savvier FA signings of 2014, and it’s sort of frustrating how easy it was for the Cardinals to fix their SS hole last season. There was one good fit, and he signed for a reasonable amount. Peralta went on to record a 120 wRC+ with his traditional stellar defense, and recorded 5.4 fWAR, his career-high.
It’s frustrating how rarely St. Louis misses with their FA signings, and Peralta is no exception. He takes his walks and makes contact. The days of 20 homers seemed to be over, but then he hit 21 last year. Peralta is a good bet to get on base 33 percent of the time, hit 15 dingers, and play near-elite defense, and be a solid overall force.
The only hope is that Peralta hits the 32-year old wall. Jhonny had his first real injury in 2013, and rebounded nicely from it last year. However, he did give up some of his speed last season. The whispers of regression are there, but it remains to be seen whether or not they’ll turn into shouts. As it was said earlier, the real weakness of the Cardinals is their utility infielders. If Kozma sees significant time, it’s a huge win for the rest of the NL Central.
The other possible option to avoid Kozma is Dean Anna. There might not be room for him on the 25-man, but having Anna in AAA but getting the starting job over Kozma in case of injury seems reasonable. Anna hit .136/.200/.318 for the Yankees last year, so it’s not like he’s something to write home about, but he had a great 2013 in Tucson (AAA) and he only had 25 PA in the bigs so who really knows?
3B
http://gty.im/456766788
Matt Carpenter was, of course, a 13th round pick that immediately eviscerated the minors. Carp was nearly the 2013 MVP, and his 2014 regression campaign still saw him hit .272/.375/.375. He walks nearly as often as he strikes out, and he’s good for plenty of doubles (though he’s not a huge power guy). For good measure, he has 2B experience, so he can probably suffer there if Reynolds can hack third (one shudders to envision that infield defense, though).
Carpenter hit leadoff last season, and his .375 OBP provides a compelling reason to keep him there. However, he does not have the first-to-third speed that you like to see at the 1, so I would expect to see him bat second in an optimal lineup. I’m not sure he’s as good as his 2013 campaign would suggest, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Carp but up 4-5 WAR every year of his contract, which (of course) is under market rates and doesn’t expire until 2019 at the very earliest.
Reynolds can play 3B in relief of Matt, but Matt will play 160 games unless he’s injured. When out there, Reynolds has the grace of a man with roller skates on an ice rink.
LF
http://gty.im/455342986
Matt Holliday had a declining 2014, but you’d never know it; he crushed the Cubs for a .284/.384/.595 line in 86 plate appearances. Other than his complete dominance of Chicago, he had a bit of a down season for him, which is still a 132 wRC+ and some downballot MVP consideration. Holliday has had one of those sneakily incredible careers, where even though he never had gaudy counting stats (28 HR max, though 137 RBI in a season), you look back and see that his lifetime slash is .308/.385/.523 with only half of his career in Coors Field. Holliday is in the twilight of his career, which is still very good, and he’s an inner-circle Hall of Very Good guy.
The power is the first thing to go for Holliday, and his SLG fell 49 points last season (his ISO dropped 21). Look for that trend to continue, and for Holliday to settle at around a 125 wRC+. That’s impressive, but as a LF with poor defense, that’s not entirely unsurmountable. You’re looking at a 4 win player that is paid like it ($17 million). You never know; he could lose it in a hurry.
The unfortunate passing of Oscar Taveras makes the outfield situation in St. Louis slightly murkier, but they still will have perhaps the deepest 4th and 5th outfielders in recent memory. Randal Grichuk is probably the backup corner outfielder, and he’ll replace Holliday when he leaves. Grichuk has some pop in his bat that he developed late in his minor league career, and he should hit enough to be at least respectable should he see extended playing time. Waiting in the wings is Stephen Piscotty, yet another “never strikes out, perennial .300 hitter” monster the Cardinals always seem to have. It will be hard for opposing squads to outmatch this outfield.
CF
http://gty.im/453841136
Jon Jay doesn’t get enough credit for being a solid player. When Taveras passed away, Jay assumed the role of starting CF, and he brings no pop but a solid average to the table. He strikes out around 16% of the time, but makes up for it with great BABIPs (he’s had them his whole career, and with his speed it makes some sense). He’s projected to hit .278/.345/.379, which would be good for a 106 wRC+.
As with any player dependent on a high BABIP for success, you can dream on bad bounces doing Jay in. Jon should be more worried than most about this; Jay might hit 5 HR in a particularly windy season, and his defense is merely passable in center (and that may be charitable). That being said, he’s done it so far, and he’ll only be starting his decline as he enters his age-30 season.
Peter Bourjos has the honor of displacing Mike Trout from center in Los Angeles. He’s a dynamite fielder with even less power than Jay has. Unlike Jon Jay, Bourjos strikes out a considerable amount, and that’s the major force holding him back. If he can’t learn to control his strikeouts, he’ll still find work, just as a dynamic 4th OF.
RF
http://gty.im/175017364
St. Louis robbed Atlanta of Jason Heyward, spinning some damaged goods (Shelby Miller) for a great RF. Heyward walks over 10% of the time, and has considerable doubles power. He plays a great RF, and can play center in a pinch. He’s accrued 21.4 fWAR in 5 seasons, and my great fear is that he signs some under-market extension for the Best Fans in Baseball.
Heyward is just 25, and stands to make hundreds of millions in free agency as a 26-year old next season. You have to hope that Atlanta traded him precisely because he wants to test the waters – prime-age MVP candidates don’t often shake loose so easily. There’s really nothing to dislike about his game, though if you want to pick nits, you can quibble about his 110 wRC+ last year (only 110, and still a 5.1 WAR). If you squint and say the defense is overrated, he does lose some value, but he at least passes my eye test.
#1
http://gty.im/492488915
Adam Wainwright is one of the game’s true aces (no, Jon Lester is not a capital-A Ace, he’s just a solid #1). He walks less than just about everyone, and until last year struck out his fair share of batters. He’s also been durable enough to log 198.2 innings or more each of the last 5 seasons, over which he’s accumulated 25.8 fWAR.
If there’s any hope on the horizon, it’s Wainwright’s sudden crash of strikeouts. He lost 3% from his rate. That might not sound like a lot, but it’s almost a batter a game, and that adds up. He made up for it by inducing incredibly weak contact last year, but that’s not a sustainable mode of attack. He’s also 33 this year, which means Wainwright is no spring chicken. Still, these are nitpicks, and Wainwright is among the best in the game.
#2
http://gty.im/494500975
Jaime Garcia is an interesting case. Garcia has combined to pitch just 99 innings in the past 2 years, with plenty of injuries in his file. When he was healthy in 2011 and 2012, however, he was pretty fantastic, with a FIP in the 3-3.3 range. As of 2 weeks ago, the injury report read “Garcia (shoulder) has been rehabbing well but is still not read to compete at the major league level…,” which means that it’s very likely Garcia misses the start of this season as well.
When healthy, Garcia strands induces ground balls and keeps it in the park. He also doesn’t walk a lot of batters, which is why he’s projected so well (3.20 FIP this season). We’ll see if he can stay healthy this year.
#3
http://gty.im/456656582
Lance Lynn broke out in 2014, with an ERA that finally over-performed his FIP. Lynn works in the 93 mph range with his heater, and he can dial it up to 97 when he needs to. Strangely enough, he doesn’t strike out as many people as you’d think; his success last season was despite a decrease in K%. What he did do in ’14 was strand batters: 78.1% of them, in fact. That’s not the sort of thing you can rely on.
Fortunately for Lynn, he doesn’t really have to. He’s had a FIP anywhere from 3.28 to 3.49 in his full-time seasons, so he’s been consistently above-average in every regard. He also made 33 starts each of the last 2 years, notching over 200 innings each time. Lynn just signed a 3-year pact that buys out some arb years. He’s a good one.
#4
http://gty.im/455069244
Michael Wacha was as good as advertised last year, even though he suffered a right shoulder injury that robbed him of a dozen starts. The fastball is an explosion and substantially faster than the average offering. He leans on his change to close out at-bats, but those are his only two primary offerings. His curveball and cutter are used sparingly and neither are all that effective. When he came back from his stress fracture, he threw a lot fewer fastballs, so there could perhaps be an adjustment phase to start 2015 (he had only 5 starts after his injury in 2014).
Wacha was a quick-riser, who was drafted in 2012 and was already pitching (and dominating) in the playoffs as soon as 2013. That’s the sort of thing that makes you hate the Cardinals and revere them, often in the same breath.
#5
http://gty.im/453837692
It’s not a typo; John Lackey makes $500k this year. Due to a contract quirk, Lackey more or less makes nothing this year, and instead of retiring, he’s honoring his contract. He’ll be a 37-year old free agent next year, but those types make more than you think they do – just ask Bartolo Colon. Lackey had a 3-year stretch from 2005 to 2007 where he was truly great, and has been fairly human ever since. He’s never overpowered guys, but he doesn’t walk all that many, and he doesn’t give up too many stinkers.
At this point, Lackey is perhaps a #4 on a really good team, a #3 on an average team, and a #2 on a bad one. He’s probably the #4 or #5 here, which speaks to the tremendous depth the Cardinals have at starting pitcher. It’s an embarrassment of riches if Wacha and Garcia can stay healthy – and it’s not over yet.
#6
http://gty.im/452100982
Carlos Martinez is a stud in waiting. If you just looked at his ERA last year (4.03), you’d think he wasn’t so great, but his FIP was 3.18 and he was pretty hit-unlucky (.333 BABIP). Martinez has a 98 mph fastball that is pretty unreal, though he figures to give up a little bit of velocity if he starts. Martinez’ big problem is lack of a real third (or even second) pitch. He has a curveball that can play at the majors, but his changeup will routinely get squared up and pounded. It is essentially just a dumpy fastball.
If Martinez can unlock a passable third pitch, he could very well end up the best pitcher on the team in 2016 (though Wainwright is still the odds-on favorite to hold that title). His raw stuff is among the best in baseball. If he never develops the secondary offerings, he’ll have to settle for being a fairly dominant relief ace.
Other Considerations – SP
Marco Gonzales acquitted himself quite well in 5 starts last year, considering he was a 2013 draftee. He’s probably the first man up, and he’s lefthanded, which is a place of need for St. Louis.
RP
http://gty.im/453580144
St. Louis generally always builds great, cheap bullpens. This is no exception. It starts with Trevor Rosenthal, who has thrown 145.2 fantastic innings over the past 2 years and figures to throw another 70 this season. He had a spike in walks last year, but was effective anyway. If he cleans that up a little, he’ll be one of the better closers in baseball. Jordan Walden will be the setup man if Martinez ascends to the rotation, and he’s a pretty darn good one. He’s had a FIP in the high 2s more-or-less every year of his 5 major league seasons, and the only reason he didn’t close in Atlanta was because they had an absolute murderer’s row of pen arms. One of Kevin Siegrist or Tyler Lyons figures to start the year in AAA; Lyons had more success at the major league level last year but Kevin Siegrist has the better minor league pedigree and a fantastic 2013 to lean back on. Siegrist is nursing a forearm injury, so they’ll take it slow with him. Randy Choate only faces lefties, and he’s a perfectly serviceable LOOGY. Seth Maness doesn’t walk hitters, which is a great quality to have, but he also doesn’t strike them out. He’s the oft-underrated player that can almost always get you 4 outs without embarrassment, and gives Matheny the luxury of pulling pitchers before they get the steep “4th time through the order” penalty. Matt Belisle is getting old (34 this year), and he hasn’t been all that effective lately. We’ll find out how much of that is attributed to Coors Field; Belisle figures to be the weakest link in this bullpen, so opposing managers are probably hoping to see him enter 2 games of their series.
Coming Soon
http://gty.im/478449149
Stephen Piscotty figured to play RF full-time at the beginning of this offseason, but St. Louis’ acquisition of Jason Heyward means he might get another full year to season at AAA. When he’s up, he’ll be a .280-.300 hitter with decent power and defense at right. He might never hit more than 15 HR in a season, but he’ll bring plenty of doubles and walks to the plate.
Marco Gonzales already started 5 games last year, and acquitted himself decently. Some whispers have him throwing out of the bullpen this year, but I imagine the Cardinals will stick him in a AAA rotation considering their trio of southpaws and need for LHSP. Marco will probably never be an Opening Day starter, but he’ll likely be a cheap, effective, #4.
Tim Cooney is another LHSP that is just going to have to wait for John Lackey to retire to get a chance to start. He’s another back-end profile that is a nine of all trades, which is generally enough to get you at least a few starts in the Show to see what you can do.
Sam Tuivailala is the latest in a long, long line of pre-arb bullpen options that could easily fit in the 8th or 9th inning of the Cardinals bullpen. There’s just no room for him right now, but you can easily imagine him replacing Matt Belisle if/when the wheels come off there.
Last, but not least, the Cardinals signed Aledmys Diaz to just a $8 million contract last year. He did fine in 2014, getting up to AA and playing decently well, but if he does well and Kolten Wong doesn’t, he just might end up playing in 2015 over Kozma or Anna. It would be very interesting to see.
Where They’re Strong
Everywhere, basically. The Cardinals project to be average to above-average at every position, with the possible exceptions at 1B, 2B, and CF. They have a very good rotation, and it could get even better should Carlos Martinez break out. Even if there are injuries, they have a seemingly endless parade of cheap, effective arms just waiting to get some big-league innings. They don’t have any one huge offensive force, but nearly every player on this roster can hurt you if you let them.
Where They’re Weak
Kolten Wong is the key to this falling apart. If he gets injured or is ineffective, the Cardinals either have slot Carpenter at 2B and play Reynolds full-time at 3B (a position he can scarcely handle), or risk giving significant playing time to Pete Kozma or Dean Anna (with the remote possibility of Aledmys Diaz). That would be a great outcome for the rest of the NL Central. Other than that, you can maybe hope for Rosenthal’s walk issues to be a symptom of a greater problem, and maybe you see that bullpen start to unravel a bit. That’s a slight cop-out, as nearly all bullpens are volatile, but there really aren’t too many ways the Cardinals can have a bad season.
Wrap-Up
http://gty.im/170067573
I hate the Cardinals, but there is simply no denying they are an impeccable organization. They are loaded at nearly every position, and capable backups are almost everywhere waiting for their chance. There’s some vulnerabilities at 2B and C (if Molina really is starting his decline – there’s no real replacement in that organization), and the rotation has the possibility to be just average, but it is going to be extremely tough to overcome this team barring multiple 80th-percentile outcomes from Cubs prospects. Of course, that’s why the play the games.