Let’s play “What if”

In Commentary And Analysis by dmick8981 Comments

Starlin Castro has established himself at the big league level and he's going to get better. How much so? Who really knows, but even if he never got any better, he's still an above average shortstop currently making league minimum. 

Anthony Rizzo hasn't established himself as Castro has, but he's more than shown in his first couple months with the Cubs that he belongs at the MLB level. He'll continue to improve as well. Both he and Castro are just 22 years old.

Josh Vitters has re-emerged as an interesting prospect who will more than likely soon be manning 3rd base for the Cubs. He's limited defensive and on the bases, but he can hit for a decent average and has some pop. He's not going to take many walks, but really, none of the three I've mentioned so far will be doing that. At least not right away. Vitters is also 22.

Brett Jackson is 23 and despite what some have said, is still the superior prospect to Vitters. Jackson can play CF, plays average to above average defense, has a great arm, adds plus speed and has hits for power. He'll also take some walks and strikeout a shitload. 

It seems like Jeff Samardzija is 34 years old. Maybe it's that he's always working on a new pitch. His numbers this year when not working on a new pitch are good for a 0.00 ERA. Samardzija isn't a top of the rotation starter. He's probably not even a mid-rotation starter. If he can continue to do as he has this year he does add some value at the back end of a rotation and he's relatively cheap. 

Matt Garza is signed for another year and he's Matt Garza. He's not a top of the rotation starter either, but he's their best pitcher.

Castro and Rizzo make up quite a young duo at the big league level. If Jackson and Vitters can add to the Cubs anything close to what those guys are likely to, the Cubs suddenly have a strong core of players and not one of them is older than 23. It's not a great core; it's just a good one.

For now, let's say that Vitters and Jackson do come up and by next year we're looking at 4 young and above average players. All are cheap and providing league average or better production. Three of them are doing so for league minimum while the other, Castro, will be earning a few million bucks.

Let's also say that Garza and Samardzija are both above average. Garza won't be cheap and Samardzija will also be making a few million bucks like Castro, but it's cheap compared to what you'd get on the free agent market.

That's six good players, all of whom are making much less money than they'd get as free agents. You'd certainly like your best six to be better than this group, but this is still pretty good. And cheap!

As said, Castro and Samardzija are likely to each earn about $3 million next season. Jackson, Rizzo and Vitters will earn league minimum, which is a combined $1.5 million or less. Garza is probably going to earn $12-13 million. This core will be paid roughly $20 million. That's what makes this an excellent core of players. 

A moment or two of optimism has come over me. I don't know what's wrong. Maybe I"ll see a doctor about it, but for right now, let's just all be optimistic about this core next season and go from there. Let's ignore what we know is likely going to happen with this front office, which is that they'll spend little money on free agent talent. Just forget about it for now. 

Along with the $20 million above, the Cubs will also have Alfonso Soriano ($18 million), David DeJesus ($4.5 million) and Carlos Marmol ($9.5 million) on the books. the combined total in what we'll gall guaranteed contracts is $52 million. Add in another $10 million for possible arbitrations, league minimum and 40-man roster guys and you're at $62 million.

The name of the game is "What if" and your job is to create a team that contends in 2013 already having $62 million on the books. Your payroll for 2013 is $122 million. You've got $60 million so who do you sign? Assume only minor contributations from other minor leaguers I haven't already included. Don't forget about other valuable players like Darwin Barney. 

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  2. GBTS

    Without looking at specific names, I don’t make a big splash on the FA market for 2013. I say hold pat and fill out the ML roster with more signings the likes of Maholm or DeJesus (established vets for 2-3 year contracts in the range of ~$5M per) and See What Happens. Then if you find everything starts clicking earlier than expected, you make deadline deals, floating Sczzuasgar and Vogelbach for SP that can be extended long term. David Price comes to mind.

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  5. GBTS

    I guess if I had to play the game, I would drive dump trucks of money to Greinke and Hamilton’s respective houses, then sign Rafael Soriano and Chris Iannetta (I’m assuming their collective $20M of team options aren’t picked up), and then try to swing a trade for Justin Masterson.

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  7. Mercurial Outfielder

    I don’t want any part of Josh Hamilton. Once-in-a-lifetime talent, but his off-the-field issues are way too risky.

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  11. mb21

    I think you’d have to go after Greinke and I’d probably call the Phillies to see if they’re interested in paying any of Cliff Lee’s salary. The only thing I worry about with Hamilton are the fans. I’d stay away from him because I think Cubs fans are fuckwads. The good thing about signing Hamilton is that he’d come cheaper than you’d expect because of the risk.

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  13. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    Other places of value for 2013:

    -catcher (castillo and clovenger would be league avg.)
    -Darwin Charles Barney Fife
    -I bet D. DeJesus gets traded in the offseason.
    -Is LaHair a platoon LF? Can you get 15-20 HR out of that dude on the long side of a platoon? I guess not.

    also:
    -I bet the Cubs sell high on James Russell
    -I’d try to trade for an expensive pitcher under contract: Beckett, Lee who can then be traded at the deadline.
    -Acquire Tim Lincecum via trade
    -They will also sign Youkilis for 3B at a reasonable contract. Either he destroys NL pitching, helping them contend, or gets traded at the deadline for prospects.
    -Soriano will get traded, and they will sign BJ Upton

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  14. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ GBTS:

    If Rosenthal had it right about the D’Backs wanting Garza and be willing to include Upton, that’s the way I’d go, but that doesn’t fit with your The Year strategy. But If you could get Greinke and Lee, and get Upton for Garza, it just might work. (dying laughing)

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  20. Mercurial Outfielder

    BJ Upton and Brett Jackson would be redundant. Too similar and neither with enough pop to play NL corner OF for a contender.

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  21. mb21

    @ GBTS:
    Why? He still has a great strikeout percentage and acceptable walk percentage. The only thing different this year is that he’s given up a few more home runs per fly ball, which is mostly luck (probably) and his LOB% is 63% instead of 74%. His FIP is 3.79. His velocity is down, but whose isn’t at that age with that many innings? If you get the Giants to pay a little bit of his contract you could acquire him for relatively little and he’d be a free agent at the end of 2013. He’ll rebound some at the very least and might be worth a qualified offer. I’d definitely take the chance if the price is right.

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  22. Akabari

    Why bother signing anyone? Next year we’ll have
    Soler
    Vogelbach
    Concepcion
    AND Dempster again
    Let’s just donate the savings to the Chik Fil A guy
    /bubbles’d

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  23. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    The Cubs have to use their $$ advantage to take risks. Lincecum is a good one of those risks. 1/2 of MLB teams could not consider acquiring him because of his $$, and that’s just arbitration. He has been too good to not still have something there, unless he is significantly injured. He could probably also be acquired more cheaply than anyone else with his potential. Worst case, he busts and is gone after 1 year. Best case, you have an ace, and you extend or trade his ass.

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  25. GBTS

    @ mb21:
    I was going to direct you to his home/road splits, but his peripherals there are surprisingly not terrible. Hmm, okay, if the price is right I’d consider it.

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  26. WaLi22

    @ Akabari:
    You forgot Baez (dying laughing). He is already in Daytona. By spring training next year he should be in the majors.

    It’s great we’ll have money to spend. I’ll be pissed if we are spending under $100M next year. What’s the point in having value in players if you aren’t going to spend that money elsewhere?

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  33. BubbaBiscuit

    Ok, I’ll bite, but I need help on what prices these guys would command.
    Shaun Marcum
    Anibal Sanchez
    Brandon McCarthy and/or Francisco Liriano
    Joakim Soria and/or Ryan Madson
    Jonny Gomes or Scott Hairston Platoon partner with LaHair
    Maybe Chris Ianetta

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  34. SVB

    Since we’re playing “What if” then I think we include our current C platoon and Barney as productive players for next year too. That takes care of the IF, CF, LF with Soriano. RF still needs help. Even in What-if-world I don’t think we can assume the DeJesus provides much.

    No bullpen, 2.5 SP. The 0.5 SP is Viscaino producing in the second half.

    We’d be close (in what-if-world) if we had more than 3 guys who could throw the ball.

    But I would be absolutely thrilled if we had a young team like that which could finish about .500. Maybe we’d be like the early-90s Indians.

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  36. mb21

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    I’m not opposed to signing Hamilton. The guy is good at baseball and will get an under market contract because of off field issues. I’d stay away from him not so much because he’s a risk, but because I don’t think playing in front of Cubs fans is the best thing for his health. I don’t think going after Lincecum is even a risk. He has one year remaining on his contract, he will be very cheap considering what he’s owed and as Nate said, if he sucks the deal is over in a year. There’s really little to suggest he sucks though and everything points to him bouncing back. Good as he was when he was at his best? No, but still good. The question is, are the Giants going to have any interest in moving him?

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  38. mb21

    BubbaBiscuit wrote:

    Ok, I’ll bite, but I need help on what prices these guys would command.

    I don’t think money is all that much of an issue to be honest. In our exercise they have $60 million to spend. That can go a long ways. They could always backload a couple deals until Soriano’s contract is up.

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  43. Rice Cube

    Oooh, I like this blog post. It’s similar to what we had talked about months ago also on your blog, but before Fire Sale Lite.

    I think you throw some money at Greinke but the free agent list (I assume GBTS posted the link from MLBTR) kind of blows in 2013. Maybe you give Greinke a good chunk of the available budget and then spend a bit on someone like Edwin Jackson. Maybe upgrade 2B? I’ll have to think about this some more.

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  45. Mercurial Outfielder

    FWIW, LaHair has been in a de facto platoon all year. 84% of his PA are vs. RHP. And he’s still in a spiral, as his K:BB keeps growing in the wrong direction.

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  51. Rizzo the Rat

    Baez hit .333/.383/.596 at Low-A, despite just nine walks in 213 ABs, as he recorded 10 HBP during that time.— Kevin Goldstein (@Kevin_Goldstein) August 4, 2012

    Reed Johnson would be proud.

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  53. Rizzo the Rat

    @ Rice Cube:
    Yes but 3 strikeouts in 7 innings isn’t exactly a winning formula (unless you’re pitching against the Dodgers, in which case the key is just showing up).

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  54. shawndgoldman

    PItching should be the focus here, right? I mean… you have the following locked down by players either under contract and/or providing such good value they’d have to be part of the plan:
    C – Clevenger/Castillo
    1B – Rizzo
    2B – Barney
    SS – Castro
    3B – Vitters
    LF – Soriano/LaHair platoon
    CF – Jackson
    RF – DeJesus or eventually Jackson with Szczur in CF

    RF is the one field position I could see a major upgrade in value. (LF could be better, but won’t be because of Soriano’s deal.)

    On the flip side, the rotation only has 2 spots locked down (Garza/Samarszija) with no help in sight from the minors.

    So it’s gotta be pitching… and maybe an OF, right?

    And unless it’s going to be a salary dump I don’t want any part of a trade; this team is currently in the business of acquiring and not relinquishing prospects.

    That said, looking at MLBTR’s list of free agent SP’s, there are some intriguing names:
    Joe Blanton (32)
    Ryan Dempster (36)
    Zack Greinke (28)
    Edwin Jackson (29)
    Francisco Liriano (29)
    Brandon McCarthy (29)
    Carlos Zambrano (32) ((dying laughing))

    I could see the Cubs making a run at a couple of these guys.

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  57. shawndgoldman

    What about someone like Bartolo Colon? He’s had an excellent season pitching in Oakland (and an admittedly spacious park)… and I like the idea of going after old guys that will be willing to settle for a 1-2 year deal that won’t hamper the team’s flexibility down the road.

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  58. josh

    I think you ignore/mitigate Hamilton’s off-field stuff. If we were okay with signing Bradley because he was the best bat available, then Hamilton should be a no-brainer for a team that seeks to contend. If we we’re talking realistic team dealings, then no, probably better to stay away. He’d want a long contract and he’s had injury problems.

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  59. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ josh:

    Bradley had anger issues. Josh Hamilton is an alcoholic and drug addict who would spend no less than 82 days a year in a neighborhood composed almost entirely of bars. Two wholly different types of off-field issues.

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  60. Akabari

    I mean obviously the team has to spend the majority of the money on pitching, I feel like. What about Dickey? Do you call this year a fluke? He has a 2013 option and he’s making $3.9 Mil. Shaun Marcum? Is that too much? He’s making $7.5 Mil this year, so it’s not insane.

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  63. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    I think the prospect they received from ATL will also be in the rotation by about May. Vizcaino? I bet they are able to trade Soriano after the power numbers he has put up this year. They’ll eat enough to get it done. 3B is also a place I can see them grabbing someone for because I think Vitters either won’t cut it as a starter or will have to move to OF because of defense.

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  66. mb21

    @ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
    I’d be surprised if we see Vizcaino in a Cubs uniform before 2014. He’ll probably stick around extended spring training to begin 2013 at which point he’ll be given 30 days in rehab when the short-season leagues open in June. I’d be surprised if they don’t just use an option and send him to AA or AAA for the rest of the year. Wouldn’t even be surprised to see him open 2014 in AAA. They’re going to take their time with this guy. I wouldn’t count on any production from him in 2013.

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  69. mb21

    Regarding Hamilton, I don’t think proximity to bars has much or any impact on a decision to sign him. Not today. Maybe a hundred years ago or maybe even 50 years ago when players didn’t make a fraction of what the stars make today, but if Hamilton wants to drink, it’s not going to be because there were bars near his place of employment. He can buy alcohol to drink at home, take a limo somewhere to drink or more likely, just drive himself because most alcoholics have no problem driving. They’re impaired so frequently so they don’t think they’re impaired. Any bar or restaurant within a 60 mile radius is a potential drinking establishment for an alcoholic. Considering they travel and stay in hotels where there are bars, the Wrigleyville neighborhood would factor into my decision whether or not to sign Hamilton exactly 0%.

    There aren’t nearly the bars where he currently works or most other ballparks, but for half the season he’s staying in hotels with a bar so close he doesn’t even have to go outside. He wouldn’t even have to leave his room because in all likelihood he’ll require a suite when the team travels. There are bars within walking distance from almost anywhere.

    I do think it’s similar to Bradley, but less risky. Bradley had anger management problems that causes even the least angry person to have outbursts from time to time. Failure creates anger and baseball is in many ways a game of failure. Even playing baseball was dangerous for Bradley because there’s probably never been a player who hasn’t gotten angry. Factor in the fans and it’s a potential disaster. This is where I think it’s similar to Hamilton. The fans will expect more than he’s capable of providing and when he doesn’t reach their unrealistic expectations it could become ugly.

    That’s a problem he’ll face anywhere though. Really, I think the off field issues are being blown out of proportion. The guy is an addict. Based on general statistics it’s safe to say there are at least 35 alcoholics in MLB at any given time. Factor in stress, being away from home, ego, resources and the fraternity atmosphere and I’d say no less than 70 out of 700 at any given time. Probably more. There are probably a dozen or so drug addicts and probably just as many addicted to gambling. I’d be surprised if there are fewer than 100 addicts running around MLB clubhouses today.

    That’s a lot of players to stay away from and dismiss signing as free agents.

    The reason I’d stay away from Hamilton is that I think he can do better for his health than Chicago and as an addict, I’d steer him some place else. Mostly though, what I worry about are the fans. First time he has an 0-4 game he’ll be booed like he’s the worst player ever.

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  75. Mercurial Outfielder

    Can report Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters are in LA in uniform today! #Cubs— miCubs (@miCubs) August 5, 2012

    If this is true, the beat guys are fucking frozen out by THoyer. Kaplan might be the only guy with a good source. (dying laughing)

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