Looking back at Ryan Dempster’s Cubs career

In Commentary And Analysis by dmick89140 Comments

In August 2003 Ryan Dempster underwent Tommy John surgery while a member of the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds released him in November that year and the Cubs signed him as a free agent on January 21st, 2004. The Cubs were a contender at this time and while Dempster would not be ready to start the season, he could provide some help in the bullpen late in the season. On August 1st Dempster made his Cubs debut and threw .2 innings. He'd throw another 20 innings that season and ended the year with a sub 4 ERA, a 4.11 FIP and a strikeout rate near 7.9 per 9. ;

Dempster had always had trouble with his control and 2004 was no different. He walked more than 5.5 guys per 9. He returned to the Cubs for $2 million in 2005 and became the team's closer. He threw over 90 innings in what wasn't a very good season for the Cubs. He saved over 30 games, had a solid 3.13 ERA and 3.38 FIP. He was good for 1.9 fWAR and 2.1 rWAR. ;

2006 and 2007 didn't go as well for Dempster as he saw his ERA approach 5. He walked about 4.5 per 9 from 2005 through 2007 so things were a lot more difficult because of that. Dempster had always had a lot of potential, but he had poor control, which kept him from reaching that potential. ;

Following Dempster's impressive 2005 season the Cubs signed the reliever to a 3-year deal for more than $15 million. He'd end up earning $17 million over those years. Lou Piniella made what was seemingly a terrible decision in spring training 2008. He decided Ryan Dempster would be a starter. Dempster wouldn't let him down and he surprised damn near everybody. ;

He'd thrown over 100 innings only once since 2002 (115 innings in 2003). To help condition himself for the long season, Dempster ran up Camelback Mountain, which was kind of funny at the time. No way was this guy going to last 200+ innings. But he did. And he was one of the better starters in the league.

He posted a 2.96 ERA and a 3.41 FIP. His fWAR was 5.2 and his rWAR was 6.7. Re-signing Dempster became a necessity. Nobody thought the'd be as good as he was in 2008. He was a bit lucky and the Cubs didn't pay him to pitch that well either. Not even close. They signed to a 4-year deal for $52 million, which expires after this season ends. ;

Since 2008 Dempster has been very consistent. His xFIP in 2008 was 3.69. Since then it's been 3.76, 3.74, 3.70 and 3.74 this season. The run environment has changed so those aren't quite the same. His xFIP- (like ERA+, but less than 100 is above average) has been 85, 88, 94, 96 and 96 again this season. ;

Since 2008 only 16 pitchers have more fWAR than Dempster. Dempster came to the Cubs broken and put together an OK career in the bullpen before becoming a well above average starting pitcher. ;

He used his 10 & 5 rights to veto a trade to the Atlanta Braves and just beat up a Gatorade cooler in the dugout.

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  1. Aisle424

    I know MB is sick of all the Dempster nonsense, but short of the Rizzomania, this is the most interesting thing that has happened all year.

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  2. GW

    OK, so here are the top 10 paid pitchers in 2012 according to my exhaustive wikipedia search (actually took two seconds).

    Johan Santana SP New York Mets $23,145,011
    CC Sabathia SP New York Yankees $23,000,000
    Cliff Lee SP Philadelphia Phillies $21,500,000
    Roy Halladay SP Philadelphia Phillies $20,000,000
    Felix Hernandez SP Seattle Mariners $19,700,000
    Carlos Zambrano SP Miami Marlins $19,000,000
    Barry Zito SP San Francisco Giants $19,000,000
    Tim Lincecum SP San Francisco Giants $18,250,000
    Josh Beckett SP Boston Red Sox $17,000,000
    Jake Peavy SP Chicago White Sox $17,000,000

    If the qualifying offer is 1 yr for average of the top 12 or 13, where the hell is the 12 million number coming from?

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  3. mb21

    @ Aisle424:
    That’s true most years. It’s about some prospect and something some player did that wasn’t really related to baseball. And the Cubs keep losing while all of it goes on. At least they’re consistent.

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  4. mb21

    I believe the qualifying offer last offseason was something like $12.1 milion. That’s apparently the average salary of the top 125 players.

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  5. Andrew

    @ GW:

    From mlbtr:
    •The qualifying offer, which will be determined by averaging the top 125 player salaries from the previous year, is expected to fall in the $12-13MM range for the coming offseason. All qualifying offers are for the same duration (one year) and the same amount ($12-13MM).

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  6. mb21

    Also, I’m sure it’s like the luxury tax, which means you’d want the average annual value of the contract and not what a player makes in any given season.

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  7. GW

    so it’s not top 10% starting pitchers, more like top 30% of all regulars. that’s a pretty low bar. i wonder if all of those are actually post arb free agent signings. has to be pretty close

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  8. Mercurial Outfielder

    Gordo says Dempster’s dugout tiff was because he didn’t want to be removed from the game.

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  9. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ GW:
    What’s amazing to me is this is at least the second or third time Dempster has done this, but he can offer up such a glib excuse and have the media just accept it, whereas Z could have never, ever said he busted up a cooler because he was mad about being taken out, without the local scribes savaging him in print.

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  10. Andrew

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:

    Dempster has never said something bad about a teammate, or punched anyone or showed his emotions on the field i.e. breaking a bat over his leg, all the time.

    He’s also Canadian so we have the expectation of docility built in

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  11. Mercurial Outfielder

    Now Dempster is saying he’d still consider ATL “down the road.” I don’t think he knows what he wants, outside of wanting to get the dick joke duo back together in LA. (dying laughing)

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  12. bubblesdachimp

    The more i think about it Dempster knew about this for a couple weeks. He really fucked theo. Had plenty of time to talk to his family. He could have told them no before they wer eon the 1 yard line in the process torpedoeing any and all leverage the cubs have.

    Sure he has a right to be a fucking asshole but that doesnt make it correct

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  13. mb21

    @ GW:
    If a team has 8 regular position players, 5 starting pitchers and a couple key bullpen arms that’s 15 regulars. Would you agree with that? That’s 450 so 125 would be 27.8%. You’re right with your 30%. I never thought about it that way. Good to know.

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  14. mb21

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    The double standard sucks, but bashing Z in the way they did was wrong and if they do it to Dempster it’s still wrong. I don’t care about what Dempster did in the dugout any more than I cared what Z did. All of it is irrelevant and I don’t think we need to bash Dempster for it because the media did Zambrano. It was the same with Lilly. Yeah, he got away with shit that Z didn’t, but I’d much rather the media have not bashed Lilly. There’s just no reason for it. Not as fans and especially not the journalists.

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  15. mb21

    I’d much rather point out the ridiculousness of it by pointing out what MO and DJ did: the guy was bashed for his adoption, as well as playing softball with his kid.

    If the media starts bashing Dempster I’ll gladly point out the ridiculousness of that too, but I hope they don’t.

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  16. bubblesdachimp

    @ mb21:

    Interesting if true… Hope he takes it and all will be forgotten. I think we know by friday. He has a day off to spend with his family.

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  17. dylanj

    `I think the Twitter and the internet have really changed the dynamics for how it all works. We were able to keep this deal under wraps for about three days as we worked through a lot of details, and it never leaked out. And then the second we got to … the Cubs taking it to the player, it was out everywhere. It’s a different dynamic than we’ve ever worked in, and it does make it sometimes more difficult to get our jobs done.’’

    Braves GM on the leaks. Interesting.

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  18. dylanj

    i haven’t seen that MD. In fact Wren says directly the deal expired yesterday. Which make sense. Dempster is making less starts now than he would have.

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  19. AB

    I still remember when Dempster started the 9th in the Victor Diaz game striking two guys out and then walked straight two guys, prompting Dusty to bring Latry Hawkins out for the 5th straight game or something crazy like that.

    That old windbag McCarver could hardly contain his happiness.

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  20. Rizzo the Rat

    Lincecum is getting clobbered despite having 8 strikeouts in under 5 innings. Pretty good microcosm of his year so far.

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  21. Rizzo the Rat

    @ josh:
    I’m sure bad luck is one factor, but it’s hard to believe he isn’t doing something wrong, as well (and his career-high walk and home run rates are worrying, as is his decreased velocity).

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  22. josh

    @ Rizzo the Rat:
    Yeah, I think he needs a change or something. Somehow the Giants have got him too much in his head. Or maybe he’s doing that to himself. I’ve heard some of his pressers and he keeps trying to figure out what’s wrong with himself. I wonder if he could pitch better elsewhere. He’ll probably get the chance to find out.

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  23. Suburban kid

    @ GW:
    Googling brings back too many bad memories of both men’s various eruptions. But there was mention of it in an ancient fanpost that pointed to a 2008 Waddle & Silvy podcast.

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  24. SVB

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    Here’s a quote from the link in MO’s comment:

    Let’s keep the comments civil. I’m not asking you to not speak your mind, I’m suggesting only that you be thoughtful before posting.

    I’ve never seen a pre-emptive “be nice” warning at OV — or the need for one. So thanks to everyone for that, it makes hanging out here fun.

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  25. SVB

    @ Rice Cube:
    (dying laughing). Which asshole?

    I think that’s true in real life, but not behind the shroud of the internet. I almost never read comments anymore on blogs or other websites because of how shitty people are.

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  26. SVB

    Just out of curiosity, does Patrick Kane get trashed by the Chicago media and sportstalk shows like Z did? Or does he get the white-guy-just-having-fun pass?

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  27. EnricoPallazzo

    SVB wrote:

    Doesn’t make Enrico’s decisions about Lincecum’s spot on his Fantasy team any easier….

    between him and cliff lee (my #1 and #2 picks, i think), my season is pretty much destroyed anyway.

    SVB wrote:

    Or does he get the white-guy-just-having-fun pass?

    i’m trying to think of a white guy that the chicago media picked on as much as they did Z/latroy/jaque jones/mb/any other minority players. i’m coming up blank. did todd hundley get this kind of treatment? i was a little to young during his tenure to really notice. i guess every bears QB gets pretty bad press but otherwise i can’t think of any other white dudes that routinely got shat on. anyone?

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  28. frysredjacket

    @ EnricoPallazzo:
    Hundley didn’t get the shit treatment until he left. Roenick got some guff toward the end of his tenure and the full shitting when he joined Phoenix. The only other white guy I can think of is Cade Mcnown.

    However, none of these guys got it like Z or Bradley got it. Hell, I got kicked off Kaps site for arguing it with him. He eventually had me on his show to “clear the air”. To be fair, he did let me talk and showed some class toward the end of our talk.

    The clear cut division between the treatment of white vs. non white players in this town is staggering. Look at all of Lilly’s antics and compare them to Z’s. Same or in some cases worse. Some knuckle head in this very thread said so Dempster never punched a teammate. True. But, Lily punched his coach. He even got kicked out of a game for arguing balls and strikes AND HE WASN’T EVEN PITCHING THAT DAY!!!! But, hey he’s a cool white dude with a neato nickname so…pass.

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  29. Rice Cube

    @ SVB:
    I feel like a lot of the people who post here are very educated and intelligent and don’t have any real motive to be a dick to each other so that’s probably why it’s fun to talk baseball and Lord of the Breaking Bad with you guys. My “asshole” comment was more of a lame joke 😀

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  30. Rizzo the Rat

    Aroldis Chapman’s K%: 50.3%. He’s struck out slightly more than half the batters he’s faced this year.

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  31. SVB

    @ uncle dave:
    hahahahahahahahahaha

    From the pix I saw, the author of that post had a point. Kane drinks like a Freshman, not like a seasoned 23-yr-old, but I guess he hasn’t had the benefit of college to learn how to drink!

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  32. frysredjacket

    @ GW:
    That’s quibbling. The point is, he got a pass. Z did not.

    And, I’d argue aside from the punching incident, he wasn’t that much more subdued(or better).

    The test is simple really. If Z did the things Lilly did we’d hear about them endlessly. Lilly throws his glove, barely a mention. Z punches a gatorade cooler, Sully calls for him to be psych evaluated. Lilly gets thrown from a game he wasn’t in, he gets kudos for showing passion and leadership. Z tosses an ump and gets called theatrical and childish. I think you get the point.

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  33. GW

    @ frysredjacket:

    no need to be dishonest, frj, you have a case without doing that. if lilly punched lou, that story would have been enormous. you may be right, but the fact is that lilly’s blowups were less frequent and less of a spectacle for the camera than z’s.

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  34. Suburban kid

    Z runs hard to first base (and hurts his leg)
    Lilly slams into Yadier Molina (and hurts Molina)

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  35. Chet Masterson

    Hundley didn’t get the shit treatment until he left.

    WTF?!

    Todd Hundley gave Cubs fans the finger for booing him once during a game. During a game! That’s crazy revisionist history you’ve got going to think that Todd Hundley never heard it from the fans. I went to a game at Wrigley as a teenager once and heard Todd LUSTILY booed by the crowd because – well – he sucked.

    In 1983, Lea Elia would beg to differ with you that Cub fans are just real, real faithful. Those 1983 Cubs featured players like Keith Moreland, Larry Bowa, Jody Davis, Ron Cey and some cat named “Sandberg”.

    I find it frustrating that people think people from Chicago would be MERCILESS to a guy like Rex Grossman but somehow give a honkey a free pass because he played for the Cubs.

    Milton Bradley was targeted for booing because he was a gigantic asshole and he really sucked with the Cubs. To deny that is to be blind. He was an asshole before the Cubs and an asshole after.

    Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano are guilty of the same thing Rex Grossman was guilty of – being the biggest stars on their respective teams and having noticeable flaws, leading to them getting the most criticism. Even if all 3 of those guys were/are great, there is no denying they were a) an asshole of a teammate b) not outgoing personalities c) loafed from time to time. I went to a Brewers/Cubs game at Miller Park this year and heard the Brewer fans around me bitch for 5 minutes about how lazy Ramirez is out there. Not true, but that’s the vibe the guy gives off.

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  36. mikeakaleroy

    @ Rice Cube:

    No, no, no, I’m not becoming a doctor of anything, twas just commenting on your comment. Besides, I’m already an Ordained Minister from the Universal Life Church and aDoctor of Thuganomics

    /Cena’d

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  37. frysredjacket

    @ GW:
    Not sure where you’re finding dishonesty?

    I see your point, I do. I just disagree. Lilly’s tantrum on the mound was on a bigger stage than Z’s ejection of the ump. His vaulting over the dugout railing was on an equal stage to Z’s bat over the knee routine. I’m not in favor of any of these actions. I just can’t stomach the fact that Chicago media seems to harp on the crazy latino angle.

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  38. Mercurial Outfielder

    Look, it’s 2005, it’s ACB and people are still proffering sophistical defenses of the casual racism that’s rampant at Wrigley!

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  39. mb21

    frysredjacket wrote:

    Some knuckle head in this very thread said so Dempster never punched a teammate.

    I agree with much of what you’re saying, but I have no problem with what Andrew said. I think I’d probably disagree with him that Z deserved what he got, but he made the differences between Z and Dempster clear and there are significant differences between their behavior. The simple fact that Zambrano had so few friends in the clubhouse is more than enough evidence of that. Nobody has said a bad word about Dempster and last I heard managers and coaches love it when players want to stay in the game so I doubt Sveum could care less that Dempster wanted to stay in the game. He’d probably prefer he didn’t destroy whatever he did (didn’t see it), but as for wanting to stay in, every manager wants every pitcher to want to stay in.

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  40. GW

    @ frysredjacket:

    the fact of lilly’s employer when he punched a coach is the most relevant point in the chicago media’s reaction to it. omission of that detail is dishonest.

    and if you really think that lilly blew up as frequently and as loudly as z, i guess we were just watching two different teams for all those years.

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  41. Mercurial Outfielder

    FWIW, I readily admit that Hundley was savaged by the Wrigley faithful. He got it as bad as Jones ever did. But Jones was getting it even when he was almost singlehandedly saving the Cubs ass int he second half of ’07. The Wrigley crowd reserves a special venom for those of the non-Caucasian persuasion. If you can’t see that, nothing any of us say here will help you.

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  42. frysredjacket

    @ Chet Masterson:
    Yeah, I never said he didn’t hear it from the fans. You totally missed the point.

    As for Bradley, he was an asshole. Still is. I’m cool with booing him for sucking. I’m not cool with the monkey calls and the racist comments I heard with my own ears.

    This isn’t about fan criticism. It’s about a media bias against latinos and a definite racisim against blacks by a small portion of fans. The media ignores it and Kap flat out told me it didn’t happen.
    I was in the stands when someone called Hawkins a “fucking porch monkey”. I was in the stands when another called Amaury Telamaco a “nacho vendor” at his debut. That’s the point. Not whether or not fans got on a guys case, but how they do.

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  43. mb21

    @ frysredjacket:
    It’s disgusting and I’ve pointed out the behavior issues with others as a way to highlight it in the past. I think we’re better off leaving that part of it alone. the reason is simple: there is a significant difference in behavior between a Zambrano/Bradley and Dempster. It’s a losing battle if you try to get people to see what you’re saying by comparing him to someone who has been far more mannered than each of those two. Instead, I’d urge we point out the sheer number of minorities who have been attacked and leave those alone who haven’t been. I’d say it’s better to highlight the absolutely worst the media and fans have done (being upset about Z’s adoption, playing softball with his kids, throwing out a first pitch underhanded). Any time someone tries to compare Z to someone is clearly more mild mannered than he is, you can’t win. You’ve already lost that person, but only the most ignorant people could look at some of the things these other guys have criticized for and not see just how bad it is. The bottom line is that we have enough evidence between Bradley, Zambrano and especially Jack Jones (loved by everyone on every team) and Dusty Baker (same as Jones) that we don’t need to compare them to white guys who have done similar things.

    Just my 2 cents and it’s based on fighting the losing battle for years. I think I went about it the wrong way.

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  44. frysredjacket

    @ GW:
    Ah, yes. I see what I did wrong there. You’re right. Please know though that it was an ommission of excuberance and not a planned misleading detail.

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  45. mb21

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    I love all the stuff we wrote about this topic and I wouldn’t change it. If I was going to fight the fight today I’d do it a little differently. I got burned out and while I think it’s egregious, I’m still burned out. Plus, I don’t pay nearly as much attention the Cubs as I did then so I just don’t see it as often. I haven’t read a Paul Sullivan article since 2010. Probably only read a handful from Gordo and MIles. I still like reading Muskat because I get more quotes from players, but with the Cubs sucking I just don’t follow them as closely.

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  46. mb21

    SVB wrote:

    I’ve never seen a pre-emptive “be nice” warning at OV — or the need for one. So thanks to everyone for that, it makes hanging out here fun.

    I started to write something on the forum and began to include something along those lines and before I finished the sentence I figured that meant it’s not something I should publish. I think we’ve always figured this is a community and unless it gets out of hand people will figure out a way to coexist.

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  47. GW

    @ frysredjacket:

    gotcha.

    i was as big a z fan as anybody, save for a few on this blog, to the point where i was really bothered by the z for volstad swap. same with lilly, for that matter. and yeah, it’s really depressing that every time a “questionable character guy” comes to town, we can start the countdown clock for the self-righteous media assassination. so i definitely get your point.

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  48. mb21

    By the way, I think Chet makes an interesting point about Elia’s teams. I disagree about his 3 points that can’t be denied. Nobody has ever said Soriano is an asshole and I can’t remember anyone saying that about Ramirez either. Both players were well liked by their teammates. Soriano and Ramirez were known to take the occasional play off, which was definitely frustrating. As for Z being lazy, I take exception to that. I’m not sure I’ve seen a pitcher in my life try as hard as he did. The guy would bust ass down the line on sac bunts. Name one pitcher in the last 15 years who has done that even twice. The guy would lay down a bunt when the infield was sleeping and bust ass down the line for a bunt hit. Zambrano may have been an asshole and intolerable to his teammates, but the guy busted ass.

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  49. GW

    romero got crushed by the a’s. that guy has really fallen off a cliff this year. someone named miguel gonzalez (who as far as I know, is not mike gonzalez trying to reinvent himself as a starter) started for the o’s and got similar treatment.

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  50. Mercurial Outfielder

    Soriano is the most glaring example, maybe. Every teammate he’s ever had here and every manager he’s had here have said he is unquestionably the hardest worker on the team. But the constant mantra about Soriano is that he jakes it in the OF and his bad habits will rub off on whatever rookie he’s close to…but no one ever stops to ask themselves why every manager that’s been here has funneled Spanish-speaking rookies towards Soriano.

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  51. Doogolas42483

    I loved JJ, I got into yelling matches with my family members about how important he was in 07! Fucking eh people were just absurd. 🙁 Poor guy.

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  52. Chet Masterson mobile

    @ mb21:

    Sorrt, to clarify, I meant my asshole, outgoing, loafing remarks to be meamt respectively to each player, not collectively. I am definitely aware Zambrano was never lazy. I had to leave so I guess I didnt write my point clearly enough. Apologies.

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  53. mb21

    @ Chet Masterson mobile:
    I may have read it incorrectly. No reason to apologize.

    The only thing I’d add is that players have a wide variety of skills. The obvious ones like hitting, fielding, baserunning and that kind of stuff is what we see regularly. Few players have all the skills. Even a great player is likely to have a weakness. Most have multiple weaknesses. That Soriano and Ramirez would take the occasional play off isn’t that significant when you think about it. Ideally everyone would bust ass all the time, but that’s not realistic. If they took more plays off than others, they also had other skills that other players didn’t have. Sometimes I think people (not necessarily you) think that lacking one skill or another eliminates all other skills. No player is perfect. They all have their strengths and weaknesses and sometimes those strengths include things like busting ass and other times it’s a weakness for players. Sometimes I think people tend to focus on one skill that a player lacks, whether it’s the ability to take a walk, defense, baserunning or whatever rather than taking them all into consideration and evaluating the player based on all skills.

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  54. Rizzo the Rat

    I think part of Aramis’ “problem” is that he just looks uninvolved. He has a dispassionate, sleepy-looking expression on his face all the time. He rarely looks excited or alert.

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  55. Rodrigo Ramirez

    I’m a bit late to the racism discussion, but I would like to add that I’ve personally heard racist slurs flung around the Wrigley bleachers. And wasn’t it Torii Hunter who refused to visit the Cubs as a free agent out of fear of the racist fans?

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  56. GW

    @ mb21:

    he’s the dubious mlb rumor source who tweeted the other night that dempster had consented (an obvious fabrication). he might be just following a shitload of beatwriters/other rumor guys and passing off info as his own. in fact, i would guess that some of his info is precisely that. on the other hand, for a couple of the trades the last few days, he seems to have been the first to break the stories. at least i can’t find anyone who beat him to it. so i also think he has a source or two.

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  57. josh

    @ mb21:
    Never saw him play, obviously, but I read that Ted Williams used to get shit all the time for being a bad fielder. Best hitter ever, but a shit fielder, sort of like Manny Ramirez, I guess. It’s hard to be really good at everything.

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