It is all but official. The Cubs will meet the Pirates in the Wild Card game. It's theoretical that the Cubs would play the Cardinals instead, but the chance that St. Louis takes the division is well over 90% at this point – 91.7% according to Baseball Prospectus. Since it's one game, anything can happen: we can win by 17, or lose by 6. That said, it's always nice to have the better team.
Do they?
| Pirates | wOBA* | Cubs | wOBA* | |
| C | Cervelli | 0.346 | Montero | 0.332 |
| 1B | Alvarez | 0.331 | Rizzo | 0.394 |
| 2B | Walker | 0.324 | Castro | 0.284 |
| SS | Mercer | 0.264 | Russell | 0.302 |
| 3B | Ramirez | 0.317 | Bryant | 0.374 |
| LF | Marte | 0.336 | Schwarber | 0.368 |
| CF | McCutchen | 0.385 | Fowler | 0.338 |
| RF | Polanco | 0.303 | Coghlan | 0.341 |
| P | Cole | 3.28 | Arrieta | 2.26 |
| #1 | Polanco | 0.303 | Fowler | 0.338 |
| #2 | Marte | 0.336 | Schwarber | 0.368 |
| #3 | McCutchen | 0.385 | Coghlan | 0.341 |
| #4 | Ramirez | 0.317 | Bryant | 0.374 |
| #5 | Walker | 0.324 | Rizzo | 0.395 |
| #6 | Cervelli | 0.346 | Montero | 0.332 |
| #7 | Alvarez | 0.331 | Castro | 0.284 |
| #8 | Mercer | 0.264 | Arrieta | 0.180 |
| #9 | Cole | 0.178 | Russell | 0.302 |
| PH #1 | Morse | 0.293 | Soler | 0.315 |
| PH #2 | Harrison | 0.302 | Baez | 0.334 |
| LPH | Ishikawa | 0.290 | La Stella | 0.336 |
| PR | Florimon | Really Fast | Berry | Really Fast |
| DRA | DRA | |||
| LOOGY | Watson | 2.48 | Richard | 4.77 |
| BP | Bastardo | 3.01 | Ramirez | 4.91 |
| BP | Hughes | 4.87 | Grimm | 3.15 |
| BP | Caminero | 3.77 | Strop | 2.58 |
| CL | Melancon | 2.79 | Rondon | 2.94 |
| *Pitcher stat is DRA. |
It sure seems like it. With the exception of down-ballot MVP candidate Cutch, the Cubs 1-5 has a higher wOBA than any of their Pittsburgh counterparts. Only Francisco Cervelli and McCutchen break into the Top 4, and Cervelli doesn't really have the type of power that is going to blow a game open. Cervelli is a nice catcher, and a revelation at the price Pittsburgh signed him to, but he is no true offensive force, especially with low-OBP types behind him.
Getting the Pirates' lineup is relatively straightforward; however, the Cubs one is very difficult. You could very easily replace Castro with La Stella, or Baez. You could but Soler in for Coghlan and move Cogs to LF. You could even put Bryant at RF, Schwarber at LF, Baez at 3B, and Castro at 2B. Almost no permutation of those players would surprise me. Putting Castro in is a feel thing for me; it also makes your bench more versatile defensively, as Baez and La Stella could go in for any infield position that isn't 1B while Castro can't.
The Cubs are slightly better offensively, and a lot of that is due to the Jung-ho Kang injury. Just as importantly, that means that the Pirates have a very, very thin bench. Morse has been good ever since the trade to the Pirates, but you don't really fear him or Harrison, really. Contrast that with Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, and Tommy La Stella (well, contrast that with Soler and Baez). Those are above-average bats, and both are very real threats to put one in the seats.
Defensively, the story is less rosy. The Cubs are a middling defensive team in the infield and a poor one in the outfield (both Schwarber and Coghlan are below-average out there, and Fowler is average on his best days). The Pirates, on the other hand, are a good defensive team, especially in the outfield. Random game-losing drops in right field aside, Polanco is a pretty good fielder by the eye test. McCutchen is an average CF, but thanks to Starling Marte, he doesn't need to be more. Marte is a gold-glove caliber left fielder. Kang was a good fielder, but Mercer is even a little better. Alvarez is an abyss at any position he plays, but 1B doesn't matter that much. Walker is average, and Ramirez can still get it from time to time.
Starter-wise, the Cubs have the clear advantage. That's not a knock on Gerrit Cole; Gerrit Cole is a bonafide #1 starter. What he is not is a Cy Young candidate this year, and Arrieta is. If Arrieta can't take the ball into the 8th, though, I like the Pirates chances. The Cubs have a hot mess in the bullpen that seems destined to give a game away in the playoffs. It might be this one. Meanwhile, the Pirates actually have a pretty nice pen.
When it's all said and done, I think the Cubs are the better team, and they have been for half the season. That isn't good for much on what is a glorified flip of the coin, but it IS something.
Comments
Joe might go with La Stella against Cole though. He seems to like the platoon advantages. Let’s just hope he doesn’t put Ross out there to catch Arrieta.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Ross starting wouldn’t surprise me, but I’ll bet it’s Montero. I hope it’s not Ross. I also hope they don’t make defensive switches too soon.
dmick89Quote Reply
To day’s base ball squadron
Fowler
Schwarber
Bryant
Rizzo
Castro
Coghlan
Montero
Baez
Arrieta
berseliusQuote Reply
Love how it’s a different squadron every day but always good. Would have liked to get Soler a start, although with his shaky defense and health maybe they’re grooming him for PH/DH.
Suburbank IdQuote Reply
Yeah I realize it’s Coghlan and Schwarber out there but I actually don’t mind Coghlan in the field this year.
Suburbank IdQuote Reply
I hope he gets a chance to DH in the playoffs.
dmick89Quote Reply
Can’t edit profile
Suburbank IdQuote Reply
A little more info would help.
dmick89Quote Reply
^ this guy is completely shocked Coghlan has a 8.5 UZR in LF this season.
SamQuote Reply
^ this guy is also shocked that Schwarber has only been -2.5 UZR in LF.
Are LF in the MLB really that bad? #Woow
SamQuote Reply
dmick89,
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
http://i1122.photobucket.com/albums/l527/jmvelasc/asdf.jpg
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
Link comment plug in doesn’t work either ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
JonKneeVQuote Reply
I’m not sure what the issue is with that, but I tried to fix it by updating wordpress. That eliminated the fix I made for posting images. I’ll fix this stuff by this weekend. Pretty sure it had to do with the edit comment stuff I was trying to add yesterday. Going to get this fixed and then I’m done messing around with that stuff. Thanks for the heads up.
dmick89Quote Reply
test
dmick 891Quote Reply
JonKneeV,
Thanks again. Images can be added. I’ll look into the profile stuff later on.
dmick89Quote Reply
I like how the Sports & Entertainment folder comes before all the work ones.
Suburbank IdQuote Reply
Sorry – when I click on my profile or dashboard I get that message:
Suburbank IdQuote Reply
Really don’t bother unless you’re super bored. I was only going to change my shitty avatar to another shitty avatar.
Suburbank IdQuote Reply
Thinking about Oct 7 as a “glorified coin toss” (which it is) is pissing me off. I like Theo’s idea for three-game, two-day wc series.
Suburbank IdQuote Reply
I’ll look at it this weekend.
dmick89Quote Reply
I haven’t seen this proposal. What is it – play game one on day 1, play game two on day 2 and play a tie-breaker later that second night if necessary? Are they all played at the same stadium?
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
He didn’t go into that much depth except DH on first day and third game the next day if necessary, so I assume it’s all in one stadium.
Suburbank IdQuote Reply
http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/cubs-theo-epstein%E2%80%99s-ideas-about-fixing-wild-card-format
Suburbank IdQuote Reply
I’m OK with how it is now. Whether it’s 1, 3, 5 or 7 games, it’s not always going to result in the best of those teams winning the series. I think having only 1 games puts even more emphasis on winning your own division, which I like.
The best thing to do is to get rid of divisions, but that’s probably not going to happen since MLB likes having the Cardinals and Cubs play more than the Cubs and Padres. I do too, but I’d probably still vote for no divisions and the 5 best teams getting in (one game playoff between number 4 and 5 seeds).
dmick89Quote Reply
Keep the divisions and have 2 wild cards, but still seed the playoffs by record. That simple.
mylesQuote Reply
Issue fixed. This only affected regular users. Us special users with special privileges didn’t have the problem. I tested it out on the regular account I set up for testing and it worked finally. Let me know for sure.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d rather not penalize the teams that do actually win the division. If I could take only 3 teams in the NL in the playoffs, I’m taking the Cardinals, Mets and Dodgers because they actually won something. The current way may not always be fair, but it puts an emphasis on winning the division, which I like.
dmick89Quote Reply
Schwarber just looks awful or there.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Great job by Arrieta getting out of that jam, though.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Bryant! Nice to see them finally doing some damage against this awful pitcher.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
MLB is too easy for Arrieta. He’s due for a promotion.
dmick89Quote Reply
I didn’t think Schwarber was that bad early on so I wonder if he’s letting his offense carry over to the outfield.
dmick89Quote Reply
Len and JD are just guessing about how awesome Arrieta is now. I’m OK with that.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
*gushing
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
dmick89,
He allowed 3 hits so far. And he just allowed a walk! He should be demoted.
WaLiQuote Reply
That’s a good point. The walk really pushed it over the edge. Can’t tolerate that shit.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Most pitchers have an ability to make things seem effortless for an at bat or an inning. Arrieta’s ability to do that not just over games, but over this second half of this season (throwing to first notwithstanding) makes me believe him when he says he doesn’t even know how good he is. There is something truly Maddux-like about this run.
It’s exciting, yet I am starting to feel OK about expecting it. I mean who would be surprised to hear that Arrieta pitched another no-hitter?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Inverted M
berseliusQuote Reply
Arrieta is so good, he might be unjinxable. That’s 20.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Arrieta is the Cubs secret jinxbuster.
dmick89Quote Reply
Oh my god. So many of my posts have typos or autocomplete errors. I miss post editing so much.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Also, Arrieta apparently did well today. Good for him.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Too bad the Rockies and Reds—tied with the Brewers in wins—are tied with the Brewers in wins for a reason.
ceruleanQuote Reply
There isn’t another pitched I’d want out there on the mound in the coin-flip game. The coin they are using has two heads on it – both sides are Arrieta’s grizzly mug.
WaLiQuote Reply
So, there is no AL team with a record that would qualify them for the playoffs if they played in the NL Central.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
This. Because geography should be the determining factor.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Yet such a team would have home field advantage if they met in the Series. (I find it so baffling that this is still an issue. 12 years. Really.)
—
Here is a name I thought I’d never see again:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rich-hill-and-the-limits-of-knowledge/
ceruleanQuote Reply
I said the same thing when I saw he had a movie out.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I think Arrieta should certainly beat the Pirates in the one-game. At least if he keeps this up. I’ve thought the Cubs were better than the Pirates all year, but they have never quite caught them.
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time agoQuote Reply
The new site is excellent by the way. I can log in, and visiting to lurk doesn’t crash my admittedly old 2010 computer browser
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time agoQuote Reply
I assume Haren should get the start in the WC game, due to his veteran presence and leadership. It worked in Rookie of the Year.
MillertimeQuote Reply
RIP Yogi Berra
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The NY Times has a good epitaph: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/24/sports/baseball/yogi-berra-dies-at-90-yankees-baseball-catcher.html?smid=tw-share&_r=2
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I mean obituary. I was tired.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
My brain doesn’t work until I’ve had my caffeine.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I totally get why Arrieta’s 20th win isn’t the top story on MLB.com what with the passing of a mega-legend like Yogi, but I don’t understand why it isn’t the second headline. Yankees beating the Blue Jays is neat for them, but it’s one win – Jake has 20 of the fuckers.
Suburbank IdQuote Reply
(dying laughing) most of the time i’m thinking “idiot” whenever someone values pitcher wins.
Suburbank IdQuote Reply
Suburbank Id,
I feel the same way. Pitcher wins don’t matter unless a Cubs pitcher reaches a milestone.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
cerulean,
wow, “is rich hill currently on a major league roster?” is an excellent bar bet. except for the fact that it is so absurd of a question that the answer must be yes.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Really nice to see you back around these parts, Nate. This site should be much, much less buggy than the one on Bloguin.
dmick89Quote Reply
@SK can you access your profile now?
dmick89Quote Reply
Pitcher wins… Still don’t care about them. Happy for Arrieta since it’s still seen as a big milestone, but it’s not one he accomplished on his own and there are dozens of ways that better illustrate just fucking good Arrieta has been this year.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah thanks.
Suburbank IdQuote Reply
Really makes you wonder if traffic dropped here not because of nobody writing anything but because everyone has shitty old computers.
Suburbank IdQuote Reply
I don’t think we should get rid of divisions entirely, mostly because I want teams to play as many games as possible in their own time zones (sucks to be the Rangers/Astros). But I do like Myles’s idea of seeing based on record. The reward for winning the division is getting into the playoffs at all. I think seasons like this one are pretty unusual.
berseliusQuote Reply
We definitely took a big hit because of the move to bloguin. That doesn’t explain all the loss, but it a big part of it.
dmick89Quote Reply
I guess I should find out whether I still have my old OV login.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Is the timezone issue really that big of a deal? With no divisions the Cubs would probably play the Cardinals and Brewers a combined 12 times less than they currently do. You could still set up IL play in a way that emphasizes time zone. I’m not sure it affects the Cubs that much if you were to get rid of divisions. Maybe it’s different for other teams though.
You could also even establish natural rivalry series in which, for example, the Cubs and Cardinals play 18 times per year. Each team is paired with another in the same league that they play more games against than the rest of the league. It creates a somewhat unbalanced schedule that eliminating divisions is trying to get rid of, but it’s better than it currently is in some ways.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube,
I do not…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Nope. We didn’t bring over old users. It was a thought, but it was just easier to have users sign up again if they wanted to.
dmick89Quote Reply
I don’t care about the players, I just don’t want to watch games starting at 10 PM if I live on the east coast (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
I get that. I have a harder time watching those West Coast games than I used to because I’m too old for that shit anymore.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
I’m also for seeding based on record (after the WC game). The reward for winning the division would be not having to play a winner take all game to get into the LDS (and not having to burn the #1 starter before game 1 of the LDS).
In this year’s case, it still eliminates one of the top three teams before the LDS, but gives a better opportunity for the two best remaining teams to get to the LCS.
PerkinsQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
I’ve been surprised how much of a pain in the ass it’s been watching games living on Mountain time – most weekday games happen at 5 or 6 so I miss about half the game due to my commute.
berseliusQuote Reply
Nice to see you too, Perkins.
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/joe-maddon-ok-with-bullpen-game-in-the-postseason/
dmick89Quote Reply