In a few days, the Cubs will open regular season play with Luis Valbuena at 3B. Compared to the other options the Cubs have, he isn't that bad. Compared to other 3B, it's really bad.
The first thing I looked at when analyzing Valbuena's last season was to look at his BABIP. It was low last year, at .260. That gives you the impression he's bound to get luckier next season and regress to the mean…right? Unfortunately, that's not how it really works. Valbuena's career BABIP is .269. He's likely unlucky, but over 1109 PA you can start to be reasonably confident that he's never going to have an outstanding BABIP. He likely just makes poor contact; his true talent level is probably .280 to .290.
Even if he did have a BABIP of .300 last year, his line would translate (assuming his extra hits are seeing-eye singles) from .219/.310/.340 to .251/.338/.371. That's certainly a much better line, but still a poor one for a third baseman. .371 would be good for 34th among players with 200 more PA and 50 games at 3B, right behind Brandon Inge. We'd have to give him 3 more doubles (so 1/3 of his "found" hits) just to tie him with Brandon. His ISO is 32nd as well. He just doesn't have the bat to hack it at the corner.
It's not all bad for Luis. He can play 2b reasonably, and he can even play shortstop in a pinch. His bat is much more suited to play at 2B, where he doesn't need to hit the cover off the ball to be productive. Unfortunately, that's not where he's needed on the Cubs. Instead, he's a punchless threat that needs hit-luck just to be bad offensively (and that luck isn't all that likely to come: a .280 BABIP provides a translational .235/.324/.355) from a position that almost demands more power than that. Cubs fans have to hope that Lake takes a serious step forward and takes the position from Valbuena in the second half of 2013, because Luis is just not the answer at the hot corner.
A side note on positional value adjustments:
I try to break the positions into 2 equal groups: offensive and defensive positions. The 4 positions up the middle of the infield (C, 2B, SS, CF) are way harder to field adequately. You can be bad at the plate and good on the field and still be average. In contrast, the outer positions (1B, 3B, LF, RF) are much easier to field, so the offensive burden is much greater. Even if you are league-average offensively, you're a below-average player if you field any of these positions (unless you are absolutely stellar in the field – even then, the amount of defensive value you can provide is limited). This is why Darwin Barney at 2B can be an adequate player with a .300 OBP while Valbuena at 3B would be a poor one even at a .338 OBP (Barney also plays sublime defense at 2B while Valbuena is merely good at 3B, and likely average to below-average at 2B).
This is also a useful tool in explaining why it's so good to have a player like Starlin Castro. The theoretically average team would have 4 good hitters and 4 bad ones, given how positions are. Castro is a good offensive player from the defensive spectrum, which is historically uncommon (CF are really good right now, historically. SS were up 10 years ago. This things ebb and flow). That allows us to add a threat that the average team won't have (or masks a weakness we might have from a traditional "power position"). DeJesus can also add that to our team if he can make it defensively in center (I don't think he can, but he'll get every chance to). Unfortunately, the Cubs squander that by taking a bath at 3B and RF, so we end up at even anyways…
Comments
MIA’s new logo:
And which of you is Sven?
RynoQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
what the fuck…
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Hello…Sven.
RynoQuote Reply
SVB wrote:
I picked up Benoit off waivers Sunday night. I think that someone will have the exclusive job by May 1st (at the latest). Usually when a committee is declared, the first guy to get two saves in a row (3 max) is handed the job.
In recent memory, the 2012 Giants are the only team I can think of to stick with a committee, and that was only after santiago casilla went down. (They also seem deathly afraid to overuse Sergio Romo for some reason).
GWQuote Reply
MIA’s new logo:
RynoQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
Damnit!
I mean, MIA’s new logo:
RynoQuote Reply
IIRC the positional adjustments for 2b and 3b are the same
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GW:
What % of save opps makes one an exclusive closer?
SVBQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
False, but close.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml
C: +10 runs
SS: +7.5 runs
2B: +3 runs
CF: +2.5 runs
3b: +2 runs
RF: -7.5 runs
LF: -7.5 runs
1B: -10 runs
DH: -15 runs
WaLiQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Unfortunately, you can’t do it that way. Not just because of injuries, but because of changes during the year. A team that has 3 guys with greater than 10 saves won’t be all that uncommon, but that doesn’t mean that there was a committee at any point in the year. The typical managerial school of thought is “this guy is our closer” and trots him out at every opportunity (except for the third day in a row, or 5th time in 7 days) until he loses two in a row, or three out of five, at which point he is replaced. A committee is when a team sticks with multiple options over a span of time (say greater than two weeks). And that is exceedingly rare, as any serious fantasy player can tell you.
Often declared, seldom stuck with.
GWQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I must be thinking of fangraphs. Or more likely the defensive spectrum adjustments.
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/bpros-replacement-level
For some reason I always find it funny when tango tries to set the terms of a discussion thread using questions that no one has the slightest interest in answering, and spends the rest of the thread haranguing those involved.
GWQuote Reply
GW wrote:
Yeah, and I agree that by May 1st the Tigers will have chosen a closer. If they haven’t done so by then it’s because they’ve blown several 9th inning leads.
dmick89Quote Reply
You can argue that 2B and 3B are the same. I think you can also argue that 2B/SS/CF are more demanding than the other non-catcher positions. Technically, the defensive spectrum was this: (C) – SS – 2B – CF – 3B -LF – RF – 1B (I think).
I’m fine if someone says it’s (C) – SS – CF/2B/3B – LF/RF – 1B
I’m fine if you just group them as Myles did.
If you’re going to run numbers and do that kind of analysis, you should be exact, but otherwise I’m OK with just about anything that makes a distinction between the middle of the field positions and corner positions.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
I saw that thread yesterday and didn’t understand it. I don’t know why he does that stuff. It’s not nearly as bad as MGL, but it’s annoying.
dmick89Quote Reply
Also, Luis Valbuena is really bad. He’s better than Josh Vitters, but the Cubs are awful once again at 3rd base.
dmick89Quote Reply
Everything published is free at BP for a week: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18417
dmick89Quote Reply
Johan Santana ———–> Out for all of 2013
BerseliusQuote Reply
Were there any other options at 3B this off season? What 3B would you guys target in a trade? I can’t even think of anyone good off the top of my head, except Zimmerman and Longo, but those guys aren’t going anywhere.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Chase Headley? But that’ll cost an arm and a leg because he’s still in arbitration.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
At least he isn’t a lazy latino like Ramirez
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Padres?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Yessir. Arb-eligible this year and next, free agent at end of the 2014 season.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
These are the times where I miss Aramis Ramirez.. -_-
ChicagoCubsTalkQuote Reply
these official reviews are out of control
GWQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Just saw the Cubs odds on winning the division are twenty-fucking-five to one and the over/under on wins in 72.5.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
They must not have saw we re-signed team MVP Shawn Camp or something
MylesQuote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I may be deluded but I’ll take the over.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Deluded. If they do that well out of the chute, we’ll probably see a fire sale. I guess there’s always dumb luck to consider.
joshQuote Reply
No, its possible if the young untouchables play very well and they minimize the damage Valbuena et al can do to them.
And really, Castro, Rizzo and Samarj are the only ones who have a good chance of playing well, so I guess its possible they have a middling season.
joshQuote Reply
What are the odds and potential return for trading Jackson?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Edwin? Probably nothing considering his contract. Brett? Probably a pretty good return if he does anything in AAA.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ josh:
I’m banking on dumb luck to avoid 100 losses and then marginal talent to get to the over.
Rice in classQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Second one. I’m just wondering if he’s not more valuable as a trade piece. My confidence that he works out is at an all time low, I guess.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice in class:
Hey, it worked out last year.
Hold on……
I’m being told now that it did NOT work out last year.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Yeah, that was some bad dumb luck last year. We’re looking for good dumb luck.
Wouldn’t hold breath over this, obviously.
Rice in classQuote Reply
@ Rice in class:
Some decent pitching wouldn’t hurt either.
joshQuote Reply
Nice little quick reference here, if any one gives a shit.
http://deadspin.com/2013-payrolls-and-salaries-for-every-mlb-team-462765594
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
mikeakaleroy wrote:
Whatever happened to “FYI”?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
You’re right. my bad.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
paul goldschmidt —> 5/32
he wouldn’t have been arbitration eligible until after next season. the deal includes a 1/14.5 club option for 2018.
(possible rizzo comp, fwiw, if anyone gives a flying fuck)
GWQuote Reply
GW wrote:
I think that’s a good move for Arizona, and Rizzo might grab a touch more. I don’t think the Cubs are hurrying to extend Rizzo, but those talks will probably happen at the end of this year.
MylesQuote Reply
It looks like bubbles’ main stud is going to make the Red Sox.
GWQuote Reply
also appears cashner is headed to the ‘pen, with the padres 5th rotation spot going to tyson ross (ouch).
GWQuote Reply
@ Myles:
if i’m reading it right, the only free agent year bought is the club option in 2018.
rizzo is also about two years younger. i would prefer the cubs wait a little longer and perhaps lock up another free agent season, i think.
GWQuote Reply
GW wrote:
wut
GBTSQuote Reply
Awwww, Adam Greenberg now has to start looking for one more, one more at-bat.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Cashner’s shoulder must be mush. I don’t know what that guy has to do to get in a starting rotation.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
they mentioned wanting to limit his innings as a factor in the decision, but with a couple guys slated return to their rotation midseason (Luebke, Weiland), and the other options they have on the roster (Bass, Ross), seems like they could have more easily started him in the rotation and removed him later.
GWQuote Reply
justin verlander —> lots of money
GWQuote Reply
Verlander —> $202M
gbts22Quote Reply
@ GW:
I hope that’s not a knock on Anthony Bass.
gbts22Quote Reply
@ gbts22:
being listed in the same sentence as tyson ross can always be interpreted as a knock, imo. but the pads have driven us to this.
GWQuote Reply
Luis Valbuena: Best Cubs 3B since Aramis Ramirez
Does that make the season any more optimistic?
EdwinQuote Reply
New Shit
MylesQuote Reply