The Cubs will go into this offseason ready to make at least some small amount of changes to the baseball club. Theo Epstein said as much in his incredible post-season conference (almost always the highlight of the year for non-baseball activities). The problem with jettisoning young players is that you are getting pennies on the dollar – advertising that you are getting rid of players tends to do that. There are a few candidates for the ole’ heave-ho, and I’ll lay out a case for each here:
Ian Happ: Happ has had 875 career plate appearances at the MLB level, and he’s struck out in nearly 300 of them (296, or 33.8% of appearances). That’s 5% more over his career than Javy Baez – nobody in the organization gives away quite as many ABs as Ian Happ does. Happ walks a lot, but lost a lot of power this season – only an unsustainable .362 BABIP this year allowed Happ to have any real semblance of production. Ian is prone to deep, deep slumps, and gives away a little bit in the field, so you’re looking at a second-division starter unless he can find a way to add power or disicipline, neither of which he’s had in spades in this organization.
Kyle Schwarber: Schwarber is the prototypical case of tools vs. results. To this very day, I think Schwarber has the highest potential, hitting wise, of any player in the organization! He has great plate discipline (as does Happ, to be fair). He can hit the ball a freaking ton. He takes his walks. He just…can’t make contact with the ball when it’s in the strike zone. He also doesn’t swing when the ball is in the strike zone (for good reason sometimes – Schwarber has a huge hole in his swing down and in). Schwarber hasn’t fixed that hole in 1274 plate appearances, and it will keep him from taking the leap into a premier hitter. What’s left – an average to above-average left fielder with both glove and bat – is still an attractive piece, but you can imagine another team thinking they can finally unlock his MVP potential, and the Cubs may well think this is the likely ceiling here.
Addison Russell: Just as a baseball decision, it’s easy to imagine Russell getting jettisoned. He’s backslid offensively in almost every season. On defense, he’s still nearly elite, but the bat wipes out nearly all the value the glove provides. If Russell were just an average guy, it would be time to think hard about moving Russell to a bench role (and a costly bench player, at that). Add in the other issues that we won’t recap here, and Russell is an easy choice to non-tender.
Albert Almora Jr.: Almora is the epitome of a 4th outfielder. He can give you a productive PH in a critical situation, he can play all three outfield positions, and he doesn’t have horrible platoon splits so you don’t worry about leaving him in the game for a second PA. What Almora can’t do is drive the ball with authority – his ISO this year was eclipsed by Billy Hamilton. I feel confident in saying that Almora has the lowest ceiling of all of the young players on the team. I can’t ever envision him being more than average with the stick, and with walk rates similar to Javier Baez, you have to be elite in the field or with the stick to be impactful and Albert isn’t either.
The unique situation that the Cubs find themselves is that they can easily re-arrange themselves to have a home for either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper (or even both, honestly!). The Cubs have $24.1 million to play with to reach 2018’s payroll (without moving any salary, and assuming Russell and Kintzler are gone and that Hamels will stay around $20MM). It does not seem unlikely that the Cubs can be in the market for either. I’d like to examine now the benefits of each.
Manny Machado
The first thing that jumps out about Machado is his incredible consistency. With the exception of a bad-luck 2017 (BABIP-induced), Machado has put up wOBAs of .370, .366, and .377 in 3 of the past 4 seasons (2017’s number was .328, still above league average). Machado is a near lock for mid-30s dingers, and above-average defense at third base. He has no platoon advantage, does not wilt in high-leverage situations, and he’s only 4 months or so older than Harper. Lastly, Machado has been injured less recently than Harper has. Machado missed half of 2014, while Harper missed parts of 2017.
Bryce Harper
Harper has higher highs and lower lows than Machado does, which is first an indicator that Machado is the safer play (always remember, variance is good for bad teams and bad for good teams). Harper also sucks in the field, though he’s equally bad in CF and RF. The primary advantage of Harper is that he is an absolute monster at getting on base: his career OBP is .388 compared to .335 for Machado. From 2015 to now, here’s the top 10 list for OBP:
- Votto, .442
- Trout, .435
- Goldschmidt, .410
- Harper, .410
- Judge, .398
- Freeman, .391
- Cabrera, .388
- Altuve, .386
- Bryant, .385
- Rizzo, .385
Harper is elite at getting on base, and it isn’t like he sacrifices power for OBP. Harper has the 9th most homers in that same timeframe (Machado has the 8th most). Harper being a Cub would probably make getting a righty OF a priority, as Harper has shown himself merely decent against lefthanders. I’d imagine in the scenario that the Cubs sign Harper, they keep Almora and get rid of Schwarber (for defensive reasons and for handed-ness reasons). This team is pretty left-handed as it is.
The most obvious need on the team is hard to discern. If you take as given that Russell is gone, you can put Zobrist at 2B right now and slot Happ or Bote in there to spell him (frequently). Sign Machado, and you have a backup SS for Baez off days (and Bryant moves to LF for Machado everyday- come to think of it, Schwarber is the odd man out in either scenario). Sign Harper, and you probably have him Harper/Bryant/Heyward/Almora playing some chimera structure.
Both players have slight question marks about their personalities, as well. Machado insists upon being a shortstop – we already have one of those, and he’s a lot better at the position defensively than Manny is. Machado actually kinda sucks at shortstop and is great at third. You can perhaps get away with Bryant/Machado/Baez/Rizzo given how unreal Baez is at second, but I’d rather not risk opening up a defensive hole if we don’t have to (though is Bryant/Baez/Zobrist/Rizzo any better?). Harper has literally been choked on camera by a teammate – I think most of that is on Papelbon, but you can’t help but wonder a little bit. Still, I clearly don’t know them as people, so it’s hard to say too much on this point.
I’m not certain either signing makes more or less sense than the other. Both can fit, especially if some of the core is on the way out anyway. I think I prefer Harper, but it’s a soft preference at best. Contract demands may be a greater informant than any positional consideration, too – I don’t think Machado even WANTS to come to Chicago, while Harper clearly would entertain the notion. While it sucks that we are thinking about this and not the playoffs, we can at least feel fortunate that we can basically assume we’re in for someone, even if we come away with nobody. This front office (and this ownership group, despite any political misgivings you may have) has operated in such a way that they have the benefit of the doubt.
Comments
Already? It’s like you’re making your next balogna sandwich before you’ve even pooped out your last one.
andcountingQuote Reply
Also, I’ll take a Machado on rye.
andcountingQuote Reply
i’m assuming we’re only gonna get like 3 more OV posts between now and april so i’m gonna ration this out and only read one sentence per day. please no one ruin any surprises for me.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I’d think one of the big selling points on Harper over Machado is the ability to get on base so I don’t actually see the Cubs giving up that ability elsewhere just so they can land him. I think if the Cubs get Harper that they should keep Almora and Schwarber. Schwarber should start against righties and Almora should play vs lefties and as a defensive replacement.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’ll take Harper. I think if the Cubs want to extend their window they’re going to have to take the chance that Harper becomes as great as he’s shown he can be. I also don’t really like the idea of moving Bryant to LF permanently.
dmick89Quote Reply
Maybe you’re right.
mylesQuote Reply
myles,
Could go either way.
dmick89Quote Reply
Whoever winds up not getting sorta hurt, that’s who I want.
andcountingQuote Reply
Welp, I hope MLB doesn’t overreact to the dearth of interesting games/series by making drastic changes to the postseason.
andcountingQuote Reply
I’ll just put this here…
https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2018/10/9/17956904/cubs-lesson-brewers-trade-lorenzo-cain-jeremy-jeffress
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
I had to stop reading after such hard hitting analysis as this:
dmick89Quote Reply
The Boston Red Sox played better in the ALDS than the New York Yankees did. Plain and simple, that’s the reason they won the series, and the reason the Yankees are heading home this October while the Red Sox are in the ALCS.
dmick89Quote Reply
If I’m understanding Alvin’s analogy correctly, it sounds like the Cubs should trade away a couple of players like Happ and Edwards, wait a few years for them to come back in trades or free agency, and then expect them suddenly to be awesome.
PerkinsQuote Reply
dmick89,
Some SBNation sites are obviously better than others, but I really feel like BCB is the worst by a significant margin. Just seems so weird that they keep him in that role. shrugemoji
RynoQuote Reply
Perkins,
The key is trading players like Happ and Edwards for players who have yet to become good.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
Well, you don’t want them to be good now. You need them to be good down the stretch.
andcountingQuote Reply
Aren’t we stuck with Kintzler anyway? Seems like there is a $10M team option or a $5M player option. I assumed we’d be stuck with him for 5.
Maybe he’ll be the current version of Wilson. Terrible in season of trade. Serviceable the next year.
BVSQuote Reply
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
My payroll number assumes that Kintzler exercises his side of the option, I think.
mylesQuote Reply
Apparently Bryant turned down a extension worth over 200 million dollars.
mylesQuote Reply
myles,
As good as Bryant is, I don’t see what the point of a contract extension like that is at this point. Just wait until he’s a free agent. Also, wait until you know his shoulder is okay because I definitely don’t want 2018 Kris Bryant for more than $200 million.
dmick89Quote Reply
Makes me wonder if the Cubs might consider trading KB. With Machado available it’s not a terrible idea if you don’t think you can lock Bryant up. Considering Bryant’s most recent season, I wouldn’t want to lock him up now anyway.
Myles, if the Cubs did trade Bryant, any chance they could sign Machado and Harper?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Would the Cubs be selling low on Bryant? I would imagine any team trading for KB doesn’t want the 2018 version. Is he untradeable at this point? Will teams pay what the Cubs would be asking?
MuckerQuote Reply
myles,
That dude has a hell of a lot of faith in his shoulder.
andcountingQuote Reply
Mucker,
Right now is a terrible time to get rid of him and a great time to sign him to an extension (for the Cubs; terrible for KB).
andcountingQuote Reply
Mucker,
I wouldn’t trade him right now. Bryant won’t make enough in 2019 that it would prohibit the Cubs from going after both of them. I was thinking more about 2020 and after. I don’t think it will happen (signing both of those stars), but if the Cubs aren’t able to lock Bryant up, they probably should consider moving him assuming he bounces back next season.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Who would you rather have….Bryant or Machado?
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker,
Bryant, but I also hate the idea of losing someone like Bryant for nothing more than a draft pick in a few years. There’s no urgency and I didn’t mean to imply there was. If KB won’t sign for more than $200 million he’s probably gone once reaches free agency. So if that’s the case I would definitely look to trade him with more than a year left on his deal.
dmick89Quote Reply
Wait. This whole rumor is based on a Kaplan source? Jesus Christ.
Assuming he isn’t just blowing smoke out of whichever end we’re pretending is his ass, he also says it was in the last several months. I don’t think there’s any way the Cubs made an offer since his injury or that he declined it.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Thanks. Good to know it was from Kaplan because that offer seems ridiculous. When Myles first commented on it all I could think was how lucky the Cubs were he declined it. Then I thought how stupid they must have been to have even offered it.
dmick89Quote Reply
Yeah, assuming that extension is around $100 million and no more. There’s no way I’d go higher than that right now. Even if his shoulder was completely healthy and he had a typical KB season, I’d still probably stay under $150 million.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I was assuming it was for some ridiculously long time, like 10 years, making Jason Heyward money. I took it as a positive sign they believed he was healthy. Now I’m back to assuming he might be done, shocked he’s only 5 years younger than McCutchen.
andcountingQuote Reply
Think this is the only necessary thread here until one of them signs. And at the rate this site is going, it might just be.
edit: i see enrico beat me to this point.
sharpchicityQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
https://www.sporcle.com/games/Tr4pD00r/did-the-cubs-win-the-world-series-that-year
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
Average score is only 98%.
(dying laughing)
BVSQuote Reply
https://www.sporcle.com/games/htimsetan/cubs_opening_day_lineups
RynoQuote Reply
BVS,
A lot of that is people hitting the N key too quickly, right?
RynoQuote Reply
So given the teams left, who’s your rooting favorite for WS champ?
Brewers for me. I like winning teams that haven’t won for a long time, unless they are playing the Cubs. Also, Kato Kaelin’s head would explode (hopefully) if Counsell’s team wins the WS.
BVSQuote Reply
Ryno,
Maybe they are remembering the Cubs being in the ’45 series? But not the outcome?
BVSQuote Reply
Ryno,
Anyway, it’s not fair for you to make a quiz like the WS quiz, and then follow up with opening day line ups since 91. Especially since spelling probably counts, and I can’t spell Bogusevish or Sczyrzur or Smardzjzda and I can’t remember the ie/ei in Leeber.
https://www.sporcle.com/games/htimsetan/cubs_opening_day_lineups
BVSQuote Reply
Ryno,
Quick heads up: None of you will get the 2018 catcher or the 2013 LF unless you misspell their names.
SPOILER ALERT
Players I can’t believe I forgot: Karl Rhodes, Bill Mueller, Fred McGriff.
Players I clearly blocked from my memory: Jeromy Burnitz, Matt Murton, Darwin Barney.
Players I’m impressed I remembered: Jeff Blauser, Gary Gaetti, Mark Bellhorn.
RynoQuote Reply
BVS,
LAD simply because I want people to stop saying Clayton Kershaw isn’t the greatest pitcher of our generation simply because “he” hasn’t won a World Series.
RynoQuote Reply
BVS,
You have permission to look up spellings. I also grant permission to look up players whose names you can’t recall. Mine was Damian Miller (I couldn’t get past Damon because of Berryhill).
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
I’d like to see the Dodgers win for the same reason.
dmick89Quote Reply
That sounds REALLY familiar…
RynoQuote Reply
I want to see LAD win for Kershaw, but mostly because I want the Brewers to know crushing disappointment.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Agreed. Dodgers kill the Brewers. Red Sox/Astros kill the Dodgers. All is well.
Or at least not as bad.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
I’d prefer not to see the Astros repeat, if only because I’d hate to see Dallas Keuchel’s overconfidence proven correct.
PerkinsQuote Reply
The teams I want to win the World Series are 9-8 this millennium.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
That is…the team I root for in the World Series once the participants have been determined.
The team I want to win the World Series is 1-16.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
I guess trying that on an iPhone was a huge mistake.
andcountingQuote Reply
Ryno,
He reads every word.
andcountingQuote Reply
Chili Davis ——-> Unemployment line
JonKneeVQuote Reply
I gave and removed a thumbs-up just so I could give it another thumbs-up.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Cubs probably needed less Chili and more salsa.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
That Chili got cold fast.
BVSQuote Reply
I’m indifferent to the Chili firing. The Cubs third in the league in wRC+ for the second year in a row despite the Bryant injury (which almost certainly had a larger impact on the team’s offense than their pitching coach).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Basically, I think we have zero evidence that Davis’s hiring or firing improved or harmed the team, and people would feel differently if the last two game of the Cubs’ season went differently.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I honestly have no idea whether Davis is good or bad at his job. I just find it weird how people are pointing fingers at the coaching staff when the team won 95 games with a somewhat less than 95-win roster (accounting for injuries to potential impact players).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
41 games with 0 or 1 run.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
…is a silly way to evaluate an offense, and an even sillier way to evaluate a coach.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Maybe if someone releases a convincing study on the impact of a coach on the distribution of offense across games I’ll change my tune, but I’m sticking with the null hypothesis until it is refuted.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
Rizzo the Rat,
Don’t know if it is coaching or not. But I don’t think that many games is really a random draw. Particularly with the hitters we had, even with Bryant’s injury.
So, combined with optics of Red Sox explosion, something had to change. Hopefully more than just Chili.
BVSQuote Reply
His fault or not (I’m guessing he is at least partially to blame), the Cubs were insanely lucky to win 95 considering that distribution. Just about every contending team would replace a very replaceable coach under the same circumstances. I’m still a little surprised that Joe managed to keep his job. Someone was going to pay a price though.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I think the organization is trying to send a message to the players: Perform like we expect you to or the people you love will lose their jobs (and probably die).
RynoQuote Reply
A huge part of being a coach is sustaining a chemistry and an environment where you can get through to players and help them perform well. Fault is irrelevant. If it’s not working, it’s not working. You’re never going to find hardcore evidence that a coach is doing well, but you always find narratives that people in and out of the organization but into.
EVERYONE bought into the idea that Chili’s midseason clubhouse meeting with the players worked. They had been slumping, he gave them a speech, then they scored 247 runs in 7 games, give or take. Everyone believed it worked, and it’s impossible to prove it didn’t. But pretty much everyone also believes it didn’t work as frequently or consistently as they needed it to. And the thing is, they could bring in someone else who says the exact things Chili did, watch the offense explode tenfold, and say the new guy is the most amazing coach in the world. Doesn’t mean Chili did anything wrong or poorly, something just wasn’t working.
andcountingQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
Or it was about expectations. They brought Chili into the clubhouse and expected the runs.
RynoQuote Reply
We are basically Keith Law at this point.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
If I had suggested the Cubs offer Hamels $35 million instead of an insulting $35, I could have accused Law of idea theft.
But I don’t think we discuss books, vaccines or board games enough to be Keith Law.
RynoQuote Reply
We do fill the “nice snark” quotient pretty well, though.
MylesQuote Reply
No. of games with 0 or 1 run:
Baltimore Orioles 40
Chicago Cubs 40
Miami Marlins 37
San Francisco Giants 36
New York Mets 34
Kansas City Royals 32
Pittsburgh Pirates 32
Tampa Bay Rays 32
Cincinnati Reds 31
Detroit Tigers 31
Philadelphia Phillies 31
Texas Rangers 31
Chicago White Sox 30
Los Angeles Angels 29
Arizona D’Backs 28
Toronto Blue Jays 28
Washington Nationals 28
Milwaukee Brewers 27
Seattle Mariners 27
Atlanta Braves 26
Houston Astros 26
San Diego Padres 26
Los Angeles Dodgers 25
Minnesota Twins 24
St. Louis Cardinals 23
Boston Red Sox 21
Cleveland Indians 21
Oakland Athletics 20
New York Yankees 17
Colorado Rockies 14
JKVQuote Reply
No. of games with 5+ runs:
Row Labels Count of Runs
Boston Red Sox 92
New York Yankees 89
Houston Astros 80
Colorado Rockies 78
St. Louis Cardinals 78
Washington Nationals 77
Oakland Athletics 76
Chicago Cubs 75
Milwaukee Brewers 75
Minnesota Twins 75
Pittsburgh Pirates 75
Atlanta Braves 73
Cleveland Indians 72
Los Angeles Dodgers 72
Toronto Blue Jays 72
Texas Rangers 71
Cincinnati Reds 70
Los Angeles Angels 68
Tampa Bay Rays 68
Arizona D’Backs 64
Seattle Mariners 63
Chicago White Sox 61
Philadelphia Phillies 61
Kansas City Royals 59
Detroit Tigers 58
New York Mets 58
Baltimore Orioles 54
Miami Marlins 53
San Francisco Giants 53
San Diego Padres 48
JKVQuote Reply
Cubs MLB rank:
Games with 5 or more runs: 8th
Games with 2 or more runs: Tied-Last
JKVQuote Reply
Myles,
He’s way more of an asshole than we are…right?
RynoQuote Reply
i’m pulling for the red sox to at least win the alcs because i live in boston, and as soon as the red sox get eliminated, everyone here immediately turns their interest to football (which i find boring as hell). so it behooves me for the red sox to be alive as long as possible.
i also want to see LA advance because fuck the brewers.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
ryno, i’ll save you the trouble:
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
yeah this is where i’m at too. i think that the up and down (and then up) that boston experienced could be evidence against chili davis but i’m more than willing to chalk that up to sss/baseball randomness.
that said, i don’t think that letting him go is going to adversely affect anyone other than chili davis so whatever.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
I was going to say…
RynoQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
I’ll be rooting for the same two teams. Fuck the Brewers and the Astros. I still think it’s going to end up being Boston and Milwaukee in the WS.
dmick89Quote Reply
JKV,
JKV,
So…feast or famine. Also maybe I’ll withdraw my statement about the number of 0-1 run games not being random. There are a lot of teams not far behind the Cubs there. Even some decent ones.
When you consider we were tied for last with 2+ R games, makes you respect the pitching that much more for Bulldoggedness. If we can fix the 1st inning, and return to health, we should be fine there.
BVSQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
You can’t at least find a cadre of Bruins fans to hang out with?
BVSQuote Reply
What about trading for Sonny Gray and trying him in the Miller/Hader role?
RynoQuote Reply
BVS,
What decent ones? There’s a pretty amazing correlation between that list and the list of the worst teams in baseball. It’s insane that the Cubs are atop it. It might be a fluke, but it’s one hell of a fluke.
andcountingQuote Reply
I mean, it’s really fucking weird. In the NL, the Cubs had the most hits, highest BA, most at bats (by a shockingly wide margin, despite ranking 4th in walks), 2nd highest OBP, 6th highest slugging, 5th highest OPS, and they were—perhaps the most attributable stats to Chili Davis—middle of the pack in homers and strikeouts. To lead all of baseball in shutouts and one-run games with those kind of rate stats is really fucking weird. It might seem silly to blame that on the hitting coach when they play in a notoriously schizophrenic home park, but it’s not crazy to think a new hitting coach might help.
andcountingQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
I wonder if the Yankees would take Chatwood for Sonny Gray.
PerkinsQuote Reply
andcounting,
It hasn’t been mentioned here (maybe not anywhere else either), but I imagine a big reason that Davis got fired is how the offense seemed to be complete shit for the final two months of the season.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89, All anybody can remember is asking politely, and then not so politely, for runs.
andcountingQuote Reply
Apparently, there was quite a bit of negative feedback from the players re: Chili. IIRC, some Red Sox players made similar noise after last year too.
Wtf is he telling guys to do that’s screwing them up?
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I’ll admit, I kinda want the Brewers to win. I hate the Dodgers. I nothing the Brewers in general. But Yelich and Cain deserve it. They’ve played great baseball. I like the idea of Jeter trading away the MVP and the lynchpin of a champion team.
andcountingQuote Reply
Probably crazy shit like “Put the ball in play with a runner on 3rd,” “Don’t strike out,” and “Hit line drives.”
andcountingQuote Reply
Yeah. Maybe Machado.
andcountingQuote Reply
Holy shit, Woodruff.
andcountingQuote Reply
I was just thinking how silly it was to allow a relief pitcher to hit when down a run in a game this important…
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I think that’d be only the second HR by a relief pitcher in the postseason since the 1930s.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Dodgers lose.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I know he’s well-rested, but I don’t get using Hader here.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I like the boot on throat mentality.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I mean, it’s almost exactly what Maddon did with Chapman in game six. But, hey, that series worked out OK for the Cubs.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
The three innings may have been a bit much.
andcountingQuote Reply
And holy shit, attempting five innings of Hader and Jeffress isn’t going to look smart tomorrow morning.
andcountingQuote Reply
From what I heard somewhere, Counsell doesn’t like using Hader on back to back days because he’s apparently not as good. If that’s really the case, I don’t have a problem getting as many innings out of him as possible. I’m just not sure that’s really true. He may have performed worse on back to back days, but I’m guessing that’s largely because Counsell had him out there on day one for 30+ pitches.
dmick89Quote Reply
I know nobody wants to trigger the max luxury tax penalties which come with a lower draft pick, but if they’re going to forfeit draft picks signing QO guy (Harper) and blow past the luxury tax threshold anyway, why not sign both Harper and Machado?
*making it rain money dot gif*
Rice in CAQuote Reply
andcounting,
Phils, Tampa, and Pirates were “decent.”
Still, I really don’t know what Chili’s influence is *was* but I thought originally the Cubs would be the only >.500 club in the top half of <2 run games. So I figured it couldn't be random.
It probably still isn't random. But maybe it's within a 95% confidence interval after all. I'm too lazy to go back through previous years to look and the Bucks Gophers game is still entertaining in the 4th.
BVSQuote Reply
Rice in CA,
As bad as this farm system is, it’s probably the time to do something like that.
dmick89Quote Reply
Remember when the Brewers used to lose games? At least occasionally?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Lorenzo Cain is a BAMF.
andcountingQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Yeah, baseball can be pretty dumb sometimes.
Brewers are a good team, but they’ve definitely bottled some lightning this year.
One can only hope that regression will be swift and merciless next year.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
andcounting,
I really wanted the Cubs to sign him last offseason. Seemed like an obvious move IMO.
dmick89Quote Reply
How much money does Grandal have riding on the Brewers?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I don’t know if I’ve ever seen anyone slide feet-first into first base before.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I was thinking the same thing. That dude’s head is scrambled eggs right now.
andcountingQuote Reply
Joe West gets hit by a throw. It was “a bad throw.” Coincidence that it was Joe West?
Hmmm.
Set up the DP nicely
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
West does have a strong gravitational field.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
The ball did tail into him.
Newton would be proud.
BVSQuote Reply
The Bears aren’t the worst team in the league.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Not the best either.
andcountingQuote Reply
Go Packers, boo Niners. I assume Ryno is also rooting for the Packers tonight.
berseliusQuote Reply
Agreed, though I don’t think anyone would have guessed that he’d have a season this great.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Yeah, md had that called pretty good. Cubs could have definitely used him this year.
I suppose the silver lining (for us) is this is probably the best he’s going to be, and the worst is yet to come.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Yeah, he had a standout season, but I think we should have expected at least 4 WAR out of him. That was and is considerably better than Almora’s expected production. It also would have given the Cubs two of the best defensive outfielders in the game. The other thing is that it makes the decision this offseason of who to go after much easier. The outfield would be set and you could focus on Machado.
When I think about this it actually pisses me off. It was so obvious at any point during Cain’s final year with the Royals that he should have been the top target for them last offseason. The Cubs win the division easily if they sign Cain. The fact they basically ignored Cain and went after Chatwood so quickly is crazy. I’d really like to have a copy of the early discussions the front office had last year. Whoever said they should go that hard after Chatwood when no one else would have come close to paying him that while ignoring one of the better CF in the game should never be allowed at any big boys table again.
dmick89Quote Reply
I wonder if the Brewers hitting coach is under contract after this season because whatever he told the Brewers hitters seemed to work pretty well.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
To be fair to the FO, they never got the memo that nobody was going to spend any money on FAs this year. Given how the past few offseasons had gone I can understand why they’d want to jump on their guy early from a strategic perspective. As far as their actual target goes…not so much.
berseliusQuote Reply
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/cubs-hire-anthony-iapoce-hitting-coach-rangers.html
dmick89Quote Reply
Anthony Iapoce—————-> Chili Davis’s old parking spot.
andcountingQuote Reply
It’s that time of year, after all.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
dmick89,
If the cubs were planning on going after harper, then cain would be a dumb move.
If Chatwood was any semblance of 4.25-4.50 ERA, the deal would have been fine. Remember Mike Leake got 5/80 a couple years ago. That’s the pitching market right now and the Cubs don’t have pitching.
FA is always hindsight. Projects had Chatwood at 2WAR and Cain at 3WAR. Missing out on Harper to get 1 extra win in a season when the team should already win the division by a few games is not the best use of resources. That said, the difference between the two this year was actually 6WAR. So not the outcomes either team probably projected
sharpchicityQuote Reply
sharpchicity,
Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. Sign Cain and then you don’t need an outfielder this offseason. You can focus on Machado.
There was never any chance that Chatwood was going to be that good unless he had a career year. Chatwood sucked long before the 2018 season.
dmick89Quote Reply
sharpchicity,
yeah i’m with you, i really don’t think the chatwood signing was all that dumb. continuing to play him all season was dumb as fuck, but the signing was a calculated and reasonable gamble.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
To be clear, I don’t have a problem with signing Chatwood. My issue is signing him to the contract the Cubs did and jumping on him so quickly in an offseason that moved slower than ever. The Cubs couldn’t have known how slow the offseason would move, but maybe you shouldn’t jump at sucky players the first chance you get. Also, don’t give players who suck that much money or that many years. Chatwood probably shouldn’t have been signed for more than 2 years and $15 million. If another team wants to go over that, let them. Personally, I’d stick Chatwood in the pen next year and see if he can be a quality late inning reliever at some point. You’re only going to lose on this deal more than you already have if you give him as many innings as possible.
dmick89Quote Reply
New Shit
http://www.obstructedview.net/yearly-facepalm-10-16-18/
mylesQuote Reply