Marc Hulet’s Top 10 prospects

In Minor Leagues, Projections by myles236 Comments

I'm not a huge fan of the Hulet rankings, but they are still worth something. His Cubs list is right here, and it's interesting at the end.

1. Javier Baez (70)
2. Kris Bryant (70)
3. Albert Almora (65)
4. Jorge Soler (60)
5. Arismendy Alcantara (60)
6. Pierce Johnson (55)
7. C.J. Edwards (55)
8. Dan Vogelbach (55)

The Career Outlook: The young hitter should be ready to assume the Cubs’ starting first base gig in late 2015 or early 2016 — assuming he can wrestle the starting gig away from the enigmatic Anthony Rizzo. Vogelbach should develop into an above-average first baseman albeit it with a shortened prime due to his body type.

9. Arodys Vizcaino (55)
10. Kyle Hendricks (50)

Yeah, I'm not sure Vogelbach is going to move Rizzo off 1st. I'm also not sure that Hendricks is a surefire No. 4 with some seasons as a No. 3. There's no out pitch in his arsenal, so he's essentially locked into a innings-eater type (which is fine). FWIW, Sickels had Hendricks at 16, as a C+. 

Share this Post

Comments

  4. Berselius

    @ WaLi:

    It doesn’t really bother me since they’re framing it as a safety thing rather than some bullshit Tradition thing. I’d love it if they went a step further and penalized runners (*cough* Holliday *cough*) who go the extra mile to try to wipe someone out.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  5. Berselius

    I know this gets mentioned all the time, but holy shit are the Smokies going to be good this year. Crossing my fingers that I get the job I applied for in TN.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  12. Suburban kid

    Berselius wrote:

    I don’t really get the no pants thing. It’s a fucking cartoon. Where have the Concern Trolls of America been on the whole Donald Duck issue?

    My dad was on the ad agency creative team when the short-lived Wally the Bear Honey Smacks cereal mascot was being developed, and he said there were some long meetings with Kelloggs on the topic of pants.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  15. Smokestack Lightning

    Robothal sez Cubs “pushing hard” for Tanaka; almost makes it sound like they’re the frontrunners.

    Jayson Stark hears from team execs vis a vis Tanaka: “Beware the Cubs.”

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  17. mikeakaleroy

    Question on this line:

    Morosi adds that a manager may challenge that the second baseman did not make a catch but cannot challenge that the second baseman was on the bag when he received the ball.

    So a manager challenges whether the second baseman has the ball. They look at the reply and sees he does, but is 3 ft off the base. They just ignore that and call the out? Seems legit.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  19. WaLi

    @ JonKneeV:
    That’s the first time I’ve read that his eye problems were because of not producing enough fluids, which I think is a good thing since it is treatable. I remember reading that his eye problems could have been related to a concussion he had before. I think he had LASIK before. I know my eyes get dry as fuck from getting LASIK and not properly “lubricating” them post-surgery.

    If he can produce near the levels of pre-eye problems and make it at 3B, what could we expect?

    LF – Bryant
    CF – Almora/Castro
    RF – Soler
    3B – Olt
    SS – Baez
    2B – Castro/Alcantara
    1B – Rizzo
    C – Castillo??

    Obviously this means all our prospects make it, but it would be interesting to see what happens to Castro if Olt plays well enough for the bigs and Baez sticks at SS

    Edited to include Soler.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  21. fang2415

    GBTS wrote:

    By the way:
    Nuts on Clark?
    (dying laughing)

    My middle-school art teacher owned that place. And apparently was really hot in like 1981.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  22. fang2415

    IIRC the reason that Tweety Bird was a canary is that initially he was white and some censors decided that he looked naked so they colored him in. The animators used to joke about how they had to do that in spite of the fact that Porky didn’t wear pants for decades and nobody noticed.

    People are strange about what they think is creepy. And the mascot still sucks.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  24. Edwin

    I agree, Hulet seems to be really overselling Hendricks. I’d say Hendricks is probably more a long relief/swing starter candidate like Carlos Villanueva.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  25. Akabari

    So Deadspin ended up writing a piece about how much of an idiot Rovell is after I tweeted them my convo of them. So that’s kinda cool, I guess.
    Moral of the story is: if you want to be internet famous and don’t have your own blog, harass people that have a lot of followers when they say stupid shit (dying laughing)
    Regarding the list: I don’t have a lot of faith in Vogelbach, either, especially if part of his 55 grade is his body type (implying he would have been graded higher if were more fit). I’m just not sold on him even being a poor man’s Prince Fielder yet.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  26. fang2415

    @ GBTS:
    Yeah well, that’s about when my cousins were in middle school, so that was the information that I received and was slightly surprised by when I was in middle school in 1991.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  27. Suburban kid

    What’s funny is there’s probably people here who were in middle school in

    1981
    1991
    2001
    2011

    If Al is lurking, then 1971.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  28. JonKneeV

    @ Akabari:
    I think this is a case where comparing players is clouding your assessment as little bit.

    Vogelbach is fat and left handed. Price Fielder isn’t the only one to have those two qualities. Everything I’ve seen implies Vogelbach having plus plate discipline, plus hit tool, and plus power. That’s more what I think we should focus on than “he’s no Prince Fielder”.

    Not top 10 for me, but I like him quite a bit.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  29. Rizzo the Rat

    fang2415 wrote:

    IIRC the reason that Tweety Bird was a canary is that initially he was white and some censors decided that he looked naked so they colored him in.

    He was more pinkish, actually: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFC9vnZY93k
    The story is otherwise accurate, at least according to the director (Bob Clampett). He said he based the bird on his own naked baby photo.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  30. Like You Care

    Akabari wrote:

    Moral of the story is: if you want to be internet famous and don’t have your own blog, harass people that have a lot of followers when they say stupid shit (dying laughing)

    Such beautiful poetry. You read every word.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  31. SVB

    Re: My comment last thread about response to Clark being sexist…JOKE. Seemes appropriate considering the tubez response to Clark.

    Don’t you guys knows if I’m going to write something serious it’ll be tl; dr?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  32. Akabari

    @ JonKneeV:
    I think that’s definitely a fair point. But I was saying that as every time I see him in a top 10 that seems to be the justification and his ceiling. It’ll be interesting to see if his power returns, because I don’t think he can make it to the majors without it.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  36. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    I just saw somewhere that Showtime would only consider a Dexter spinoff (something they’ve said they’ve considered for awhile) if Michael C. Hall was reprising his role. That’s not a spinoff. That’s an unimaginably awful season 9 of Dexter. WTF

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  38. Mucker

    @ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
    Why does Showtime think that a show isn’t complete until they turn it into complete shit? Dexter, Homeland, Weeds, etc. I used to really like Californication but that isn’t as good as it once was. Shameless is still good, I really liked Ray Donovan and Masters of Sex but I’m sure they’ll find someway to make Ray a used car salesman in Cleveland and Dr. Masters a plumber in Miami.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  39. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    @ Mucker:
    I actually liked Weeds all the way through. It wasn’t as good, but I still looked forward to it even if it was a bit stale. Homeland just went to shit halfway through season 2 so that’s more on the creators than the network. Dexter ran way too long. I haven’t seen Masters of Sex yet and only watched an episode of Ray Donovan. I don’t know why they do it, but they certainly don’t take as many chances as HBO or FX.

    It’s just hilarious that Showtime thinks a spinoff is the same character, but just in a different setting. That would have been like instead of Frazier, NBC did a show about a different bar in Boston that was owned and operated by former ballplayer Sam Malone.

    Or Friends if they all moved to LA and rather than Joey, it was about all them and a coffee shop.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  41. Mucker

    @ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
    Yeah, I agree about the spinoff. That’s pretty ridiculous and I can’t even imagine Michael C. Hall would do it unless he’s getting no work.

    Yeah I watched it. It’s amazing when you watch Woody and to think he was the bartender in Cheers. He’s turned into a hell of an actor. And McConaughy is really good in it. I loved the scene where he told the cops to get him a sixer. But I enjoyed that first episode.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  47. Mucker

    Did anybody else like Magic City? I was upset it got cancelled, I liked that show. I thought Ben Diamond was one of the best characters I’ve seen in a show recently.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  50. Suburban kid

    If I’m following things right, it sounds like Tanaka is coming down to NYY, CHC, and ARI.

    Of course, there’s always the team that you never hear about.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  56. Suburban kid

    @ WaLi:
    Eh, I thought Arizona has been in it since the beginning and I don’t recall them dampening their stance like the Angels, Dodgers and White Sox have done in the last couple days. None of them said they’re out out it, I’m just interpreting fourth-hand gossip everyone else has access to.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  60. Aisle424

    Jennifer Aniston will always be on my Top 5 list.

    The first 2 seasons of Friends were the top of the mountain though. Good God was she hot. But yeah, Horrible Bosses is a great movie. I forget what it’s about, but Jennifer Anistion’s scenes are the best.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  61. Aisle424

    [img]http://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-Ahulf6ocb4g/UthM5rAhquI/AAAAAAAAAn4/ObzCdNGh-Oc/s640/Jennifer-Aniston-Rolling-Stone-Photoshoot-1996-4.jpg[/img]

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  62. Suburban kid

    @ Aisle424:
    Aisle424 wrote:

    Referral Denied

    You don’t have permission to access “http://ia.media-imdb.com/images/M/MV5BMTg1NzUzODIwOF5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTgwODMzNzU0MDE@._V1_SX640_SY720_.jpg” on this server.
    Reference #24.bef354b8.1389907082.914d2a1e

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  64. Suburban kid

    You know who was kind of hot on Friends? I was going to say Janice, but I wouldn’t go that far. What about the lesbian who married Ross’s first wife? She was a creep, but attractive. So was Elle MacPherson when she was on the show for a few episodes.

    Paul Rudd was pretty fucking dreamy as Mike, if I’m honest.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  66. Aisle424

    @ Suburban kid:

    I always thought Ross’ girlfriend that he didn’t marry, Mona was hot.

    And Chandler’s mom was Morgan Fairchild and she’s still got it. (Or had it twenty years ago when she was on the show).

    Jesus Christ, Friends is 20 fucking years old.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  69. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    uncle dave wrote:

    @ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
    I got no problem with a little skin. It’s just helping me make the transition to being a Dirty Old Man.

    I’ve got not problem with nudity or even sex scenes, but almost all of the time it’s done just because they can.

    The people who get all upset about nudity make me laugh though. They’d have no problem sitting around watching Criminal Minds or all these other shows about violence, but show a fucking tit and a bunch of people are going to be pissed. it’s comical.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  72. Aisle424

    dmick89, Sweatpants Guru wrote:

    The people who get all upset about nudity make me laugh though. They’d have no problem sitting around watching Criminal Minds or all these other shows about violence, but show a fucking tit and a bunch of people are going to be pissed. it’s comical.

    The same thing with cursing. The South Park movie absolutely nailed it.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  79. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    @ Aisle424:
    Yep. Exact same. It also pisses me off how some people say there has to some tv safe for children. Sure, I agree, but are any of the primetime shows really safe for children these days? Depends on age of course, but even the family friendly sitcoms (are there even any of them?) are laced with innuendos and stuff I wouldn’t want to explain to my children yet. NCIS? Way too much violence. And sex. My kids can watch Nickelodeon. And twerking videos.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  91. Aisle424

    @ Smokestack Lightning:

    That’s been the assumption I’ve been working with, but now all of a sudden people are talking about how the Cubs are significant threats to land him.

    Jayson Stark is citing owners as his sources, not “people close to the situation” which usually means the agent. I don’t know, but it’s irrationally lifting my hopes a tiny bit, but the always reserved masses on Twitter are getting worked up now and the Hope Monster should feed well over the next week or so.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  93. Smokestack Lightning

    @ Aisle424:

    I do think the Cubs’ chances seem to have improved, with the Angels choking on bad contracts already and seemingly meh on Tanaka anyway and the Dodgers having given Kershaw all that coin. But even if those two teams are pretty much out the fucking Yankees are still there. Sure, yeah, occasionally the Yankees get beat in the free agency game, but until it actually happens you have to assume that it won’t. Only thing that gives me hope against the Yankees is that the A-Rod suspension gives them the opportunity to get under the luxury tax for the first time in ages and reset their penalty.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  94. uncle dave

    I think that they are serious and would put their chances at closer to 20%, based on basically nothing at all. I’d still take the field over any individual team, but would guess the Dodgers if I had to guess anyone, even after the Kershaw deal. I think there’s truth to the rumor that his family wants to be on the west coast (and I don’t blame them, for a number of reasons). And there’s money literally coming out of Magic Johnson’s ass. Like a box of wet naps, you pull out one bill and another just pops up.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  95. Smokestack Lightning

    @ uncle dave:

    I’m probably going to end up totally wrong on this, but I just don’t see the Dodgers as a big player for Tanaka. Never have. Magic was bitching about the cost of Robinson Cano not too long ago and how the Dodgers need to make sure they keep their own guys more so than go out and keep adding. With the Dodgers six deep in their rotation already (Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, Haren, Beckett, Billingsley–with the last three guys making 10MM, 16MM, and 12MM–not forgetting Kershaw, Greinke, are making 30MM, 24MM next year) why would they pass on a known commodity like Cano at a position they could use a big bat for but go all in on a far less known commodity like Tanaka at a position they are fairly flush at?

    The Dodger angle just seems like the thing to say without really thinking about it. They’re at 220MM million right now and will be getting nailed by the luxury tax for years going forward, and they still have to figure out whether or not to extend Hanley Ramirez. Maybe they don’t give a fuck, and they’re ready to run 250-275MM payrolls going forward, but I would think if that were really the case, Cano would be a Dodger now.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  96. uncle dave

    @ Smokestack Lightning:
    Could be, and I honestly don’t think it would be a good idea for them. But for some reason my gut tells me that they’re not out.

    I kind of feel like Tanaka represents a scarce enough resource based on what’s available on the market that the ordinary metrics for valuing him just won’t apply like they usually do. I have more developed thoughts on that which I’ll do my best not to bore anyone with, but scarcity defeats what’s considered “rational” behavior. And top-end, young, truly freely available pitching talent literally begins and ends with Tanaka, now and maybe for the next couple of years. It’s basically the reason why I’d like to see the Cubs bid well beyond his value to bring him in, even though I’m not too keen on overpaying for talent otherwise.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  97. Edwin

    Tonight’s episode of community was amazing, plus it had Walton Goggins. Neat. If I hadn’t just started watching justified I never would have known who he was.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  98. uncle dave

    @ Smokestack Lightning:
    Also, I don’t think that Magic’s making the calls, nor do I think that the ownership group is willing to invest substantial resources outside of the team’s coffers that they’re unlikely to recoup at some point. I just wanted to drop the money coming out of Magic’s ass line in there somehow. I also don’t think that the Dodgers have unlimited resources, but they are also going to be renovating their ballpark and have to be planning on seeing further increases to revenue over the next decade or so.

    To dylanj’s comment a couple of threads ago about the Cubs’ ownership group, I honestly feel like their handling of the Wrigley rehab is their biggest failing to date. Real estate projects go forward all the time in Chicago. Hire someone with experience and a sole and explicit responsibility to make sure it happens. Gameday revenue at Wrigley is probably a lot lower than you’d think in spite of the high average ticket prices, primarily because they don’t have much premium seating and they have relatively few ways of getting in customers’ pockets. That’s gotta change.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  99. EnricoPallazzo

    Smokestack Lightning wrote:

    @ Aisle424:
    I dunno. Does anybody here really think the Cubs are getting him?

    i’m pretty confident that the cubs sign him to an <$82m deal, which would mean that (i think) i win the OV off season free agent contest (and all of the glory that goes with it)

    in retrospect, i can't believe i estimated that low. dmick, i seem to recall you betting even lower than me, right?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  101. SVB

    dmick89, Sweatpants Guru wrote:

    Are those from the nudie mag you found in the woods when you were a kid?

    No, that was a HUGE pile of Oui and Hustler.

    Here’s another, just because…
    [img]http://images.dangerousminds.net/uploads/images/fartsc5nhkjhk.jpg[/img]

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  104. Smokestack Lightning

    @ uncle dave:

    A solid point. But I’m just having difficulty wrapping my head around the idea of a team in win now mode and with seemingly unlimited resources passing on Robinson Cano and rolling into 2014 with an enormous question mark at 2B (Guerrero) and a flat out black hole at 3B (Juan Uribe), all so they can sign a guy from Japan who has yet to throw a pitch in MLB, and whom everybody says is not nearly as good the guy out of Japan before him. That makes no sense to me. Whatever strong WAR you get out of Tanaka (which is far from guaranteed) likely gets neutralized or worse by the shitty, shitty play of Juan Uribe and Alexander Guerrero (or Dee Gordon). So either the Dodgers are total fucking idiots, or they’ve reached a limit of sorts, and I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt by guessing the latter.

    And beyond that, what happens to Beckett and Billingsley if they sign Tanaka? Where do they go? To the bullpen? Two guys making a combined 28MM next year and either one capable of at least approaching Tanaka’s performance throwing in middle relief? Madness.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  105. Smokestack Lightning

    uncle dave wrote:

    Also, I don’t think that Magic’s making the calls

    Maybe. But Magic said the Dodgers would be nowhere near Cano…and they weren’t. He said the Dodgers were going to concentrate more on getting their core locked up more so than make big splashes…and they are. Maybe he’s not calling the shots, but he at least seems to know what they are.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  108. uncle dave

    @ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
    Yeah, 20% is totally out of my ass as well. I figure five, six teams tops are in on the guy, of which three are serious. I’m pretty well connected to the situation, though, what with being on twitter and all.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  109. uncle dave

    @ Smokestack Lightning:
    Yeah, I’m not expecting the Dodgers to be the top bidder. I think that for non-baseball reasons LA is Tanaka’s top choice, though, so if they’re even in the ballpark there’s a good shot he goes there. His wife is some sort of singer/actress or some shit, still working in Japan and Korea, so she likely wants to be as close as possible. For most folks coming from Japan I’d expect LA to be the preferred destination anyway, maybe New York, but definitely in the top two. And if she has ambitions related to the entertainment business here, definitely LA.

    I think that LA has better places to spend its remaining cash, but I doubt that finding a place for Beckett or Billingsley would keep them from bringing in another frontline guy if they had the chance.

    I’m gonna look dumb when the Yankees wind up grabbing him, tho.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  110. J

    I think even if the Cubs offer the most money they don’t get Tanaka. I feel like they’d need to be $15-20 million over the next bidder. At least they have a potential buddy for him in Fujikawa. Remember him?

    Seattle is my sleeper pick. They’ve had a payroll as large as $117M in 2008. They need to make significant moves to compete in what should be a brutally tough division. They already showed commitment to spend with Cano.

    If they Giants didn’t throw $17M at Lincecum, I’d really like their chances.

    I would offer Grant Balfour a 1/7.5M deal, or something like that. Maybe the bullpen could avoid being in the bottom 5 of MLB. Balfour/Strop/Veres/Wright/Russell could be an effective group. And Balfour is a guy you can flip if his health holds up.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  111. Suburban kid

    uncle dave wrote:

    @ Smokestack Lightning:
    I think that for non-baseball reasons LA is Tanaka’s top choice, though, so if they’re even in the ballpark there’s a good shot he goes there.

    “Non-baseball” and “non-money” decisions are impossible to predict, but there aren’t too many examples, are there?

    Soriano signed with the post-2006 Cubs. Cano signed with the diseased corpse that is SEA. Fukudome signed with the Cubs even though they’d never had a Japanese player, he was thought to prefer the West Coast, etc.

    If the Cubs blow every one else out the water, don’t you think his wife would go along with it?

    If the Cubs match the NYY offer, you (everyone) might assume he goes to New York. What if he isn’t concerned with joining a big spending winner? What if he doesn’t want to be just another big name on a team with lots of big names? What if he is the type who would prefer to be The Man?

    Don’t count the Cubs out.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  113. Like You Care

    uncle dave wrote:

    I think…based on basically nothing at all…that his family wants to be…coming out of Magic Johnson’s ass…like a box of wet naps.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  115. JimL

    @ Suburban kid:

    If the Cubs blow every one else out the water, don’t you think his wife would go along with it?

    An extra $10 to $20 million would allow her to buy a whole lot of first class flights between Chicago and LA.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  116. JonKneeV

    @ JimL:
    While LA and NY are leaps and bounds above Chicago in terms of acting/singing/entertainment, let’s not act like there aren’t opportunities for Tanaka’s wife here.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  117. Like You Care

    OK, Breaking Bad fans, survey time. I was watching Crawl Space the other day and wondering what two-episode combo was the best of the series. I came up with:

    A. Half Measure and Full Measure (Season 3, Epsiodes 12-13)
    B. Salud and Crawl Space (Season 4, Episodes 10-11)
    C. Ozymandias and Granite State (Season 5, Episodes 14-15)

    The three best episodes for me are Half Measure, Salud and Ozymandias, easily. Beginning to end, they’re all amazing for different reasons. Crawl Space, though, had what I think might have been one of the top 3 most powerful scenes in the show (with him in the crawl space). So I think my answer is B.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  118. Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect

    @ Like You Care:

    I got the full series for Xmas and watched the first season so far. I definitely like the show, though think it’s kind of funny with how obviously they push the envelope with most of their ‘cases of the week’. It’s like every week is a Very Special Episode of SVU (dying laughing).

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  119. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    @ Like You Care:
    1. To’hajiilee and Ozymandias
    2. Ozymandias and Granite State
    3. Half Measure and Full Measure

    To’hajiilee, Ozymandias and Granite State is far and away the best three episode block of tv I’ve ever seen. Next best IMO is Ozymandias, Granite State and Felina.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  121. Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect

    JonKneeV wrote:

    @ JimL:
    While LA and NY are leaps and bounds above Chicago in terms of acting/singing/entertainment, let’s not act like there aren’t opportunities for Tanaka’s wife here.

    True, but if Tanaka has absorbed anything from American pop culture while overseas he’d think that America is a barren wasteland between the coasts.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  125. Mucker

    @ Like You Care:
    I’m going to have to go with A. The end of Half Measure was one of the best scenes I’ve ever seen in a show and I wish I could’ve had a camera on my face when it happened because the look on my face most have been priceless. I think I sat there in stunned silence for about 15 minutes after the show ended. That scene is what made me a Breaking Bad junkie.

    Honestly, I could flip flop on this and go any of the choices.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  130. Like You Care

    @ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:

    I think it’ll be SF by 3 or SEA by 14. What’s crazy to me is how easily it could be either.

    SEA is a different team at home and their pass defense is insane. Their run defense can be exploited, though, and SF has the most creative running offense not located in Philly. Because of Kaepernick, I suspect they’ll use Cover-3 zone almost exclusively and make SF put together drives.

    Defensively, SF just has to hope their secondary holds up. Lynch will get his 100 yards and SF will likely have to limit the big pass plays.

    I thought SF would win 10 games this year and lose to GB or SEA (who I predicted to be in the NFC Championship) in the divisional round, so they already exceeded my expectations. Winning the Super Bowl would be great, but it’s hard to be too upset with the three-year run they’ve had.

    So based on that last paragraph, it looks like I expect them to lose (dying laughing). I’d love a win, but I’m just hoping for a good game.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  131. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    @ Like You Care:
    It’s been awhile since I’ve seen it, but I do remember the first season pushing the envelope a bit so I understand what berselius means. It definitely gets away from that. The first season didn’t do a great job with Walter Goggins either. By the midway point of the series he really starts to shine.

    Great series and another one that had a very good final season though I don’t think the finale was as good as you think it was. Don’t get me wrong. I liked it a lot, but I get the feeling you’d put that up there among the best episodes ever. Maybe not though.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  132. Like You Care

    @ Mucker:

    Yes, that was the episode that turned Breaking Bad into an amazingly crafted show to the best story I’ve ever watched.

    Mucker wrote:

    Honestly, I could flip flop on this and go any of the choices.

    That’s where I am. The Measures episodes were great because of how much the show ascended with them. The series went from a 7 to a 9.5 there. Salud was entertaining as hell and is probably the best single episode for rewatching. Ozymandias was probably the best episode of TV ever.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  137. Mucker

    Damn now you guys have me wanting to watch the series again. I’ll have to finish The Shield now too because I don’t think I ever finished that show.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  143. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    Maybe some of you fine folks can help with this. I was supposed to get a package in the mail today. Priority Mail Express or whatever the fuck they’re calling it now. On the tracking page it shows delivery by 12 pm today and says money back guarantee. The tracking is either not updated or something because I didn’t figure I was getting it today. Anyway, how does one go about getting money back from USPS? Just walk in there and tell the I want some money? Do I need to bring weapons to make sure I get it? Is there an easier way? Can one of you bring me my package?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  150. uncle dave

    @ Suburban kid:
    @ JonKneeV:
    I’m not counting the Cubs out by any stretch of the imagination, and I’d agree that money is (very) more often than not the reason why choices are made. This just seems like a situation that’s more ripe for a non-financial decision than others (i.e. they already have money, he’s probably going to get a nine-figure contract with the possibility of getting another in six or seven years, the career and proximity issues for the wife, other cultural reasons for wanting to be on the west coast, etc.) and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him take a lower offer.

    Kind of OT, but marrying an older woman and having kids at 23 seems like an unusual lifestyle choice for a famous millionaire. Yes, the woman’s a model, but still…

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  158. uncle dave

    Not sure if I can (or should) embed this, but here’s the wife on a game show. Apparently, she’s the one in the black hat. (Also note the fly yellow tux on the host.)

    http://dai.ly/x7oqrr

    This is what it’s come to, videos of Japanese game shows.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  159. WaLi

    @ uncle dave:
    Well look at the convincing arguements to Tanaka for joining the Cubs!

    Renteria said the Cubs’ selling points were the deep reservoir of prospects that would arrive in the majors during the latter years of his multi-year contract if he signs with the Cubs.

    Prospects!! Everyone loves prospects!

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  160. Like You Care

    @ Mucker:

    He’ll probably go higher than I think, but here’s my problem with McCarron:

    1. There are at least eight QBs in this draft with a higher realistic upside, imo.
    2. He has a lot to fix for someone without the upside.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  161. Edwin

    @ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:

    Sometimes it can be cold in the post office, so make sure you wear a mask. Also, just to be on the safe side, maybe you should type out exactly what you want in a letter that you could hand to them, just to be clear what your demands are.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  162. WaLi

    @ Edwin:
    They like creativity though so cut out the letters that make your letter from many different sources such as magazines, newspapers, books, etc.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  164. Like You Care

    @ WaLi:

    I worked in the post office for a few years, so I can help with the lingo.

    For example:

    If you want to say your package is missing, you’d say, “I’m going to follow you home and fucking murder you.”

    If you’d like them to check their system and track your package, you’d say, “Bend over so I can pretend your asshole is a cunt.”

    And many postal workers are hard of hearing, so it’s best to yell.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  166. Author
    Myles

    It looks like arb settlements have been well north of Swartz’ MLBTR projections. I bet after arb raises the Cubs’ payroll isn’t $78MM, more like $82MM.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  169. Author
    Myles

    Here’s an actual Cubs question. If Javier Baez turned in Mark Trumbo’s 2014 line for 8 seasons and played slightly below-average defense at SS for those 8 years, how happy on a scale of 1-10 would you be?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  173. WaLi

    @ Myles:
    It would be hard to be upset about 34 HR a season from a SS. If Trumbo as a 1B put up ~2 WAR then wouldn’t that be ~4 WAR for a SS? I would be happy about that, especially since he hasn’t played a game yet.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  174. Author
    Myles

    Yeah. I’m just trying to imagine what Baez will be in the majors. My best guess is a mid-avg, low-obp, high-slg guy that hits 25-35 HR a year, gets 30-40 doubles a year, and strikes out 200 times without providing any defensive value (albeit at a premium position). That’s trumbo at SS, to me (though I’d say Baez is more .260/.300/.450 then .230/.290/.450). That’s probably 4-5 WAR and I’d be fucking ecstatic.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  175. Akabari

    @ JonKneeV:
    The other thing we need to remember is calling her wife a “celebrity” is kinda like calling one of the spice girls except Beckham a “celebrity”. She hasn’t performed in a few years and she just does TV cameos and magazines once in a while. She’s more a wife than a celebrity at this point.
    Not that I, ya know…listen to Japanese pop music, or anything…. a friend told me.
    Yeah. A friend.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  176. Akabari

    @ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
    I had that issue with USPS last week, too. It was some “kindof” meds I needed, too. They delivery date said one thing, so I called the post office:
    “Well, I don’t see us having received it yet, in fact from here it says it hasn’t left California yet”
    “I can see from here it says in Michigan at least”
    “well UPS brings the packages to us, then we deliver it. So they don’t scan it till it gets to our post office. Even though it has a delivery date, that isn’t a guarantee and you’d ave to call UPS, but I doubt they’ll do anything”
    Fucking sweet. I know your pain.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  178. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    So does that mean I have to wait until next Tuesday to get this from USPS or does Priority Mail Express deliver on Saturday? I didn’t pay for a weekend option or anything. I assumed there would be no problem at all getting today. I even thought there was a chance I’d get it yesterday though I figured today was much more likely.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  179. Akabari

    @ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
    They’ll deliver Saturdays. The way PME works, as I was told by the post office, is the package is handed off to UPS and travels with UPS until it reaches your local post office then its delivered like normal
    Edit: And yeah, I mean. It’s not like I can yell at them “It’s fucking meds, you dickface” but on an aside, i think I got admitted into a study which should help me not have to take mild hallucinigenics in tiny doses just to be able to sleep. So that’s good.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  183. Akabari

    @ WaLi:
    It’s both ways. My package (and my roommate’s, who had the same issue) were both USPS priority mail and the post office explained to us both that they use UPS

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  186. Suburban kid

    I’m sorry, but Tanaka’s career moves are going to trump his wife’s at this point in their lives. This is almost certainly the biggest decision/deal of his professional life. She’s already going along with it by agreeing to move to the states. I think she’s going to support whatever he wants on this one (even if that means playing for the Cubs – (dying laughing) – or whoever).

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  187. Suburban kid

    @ SVB:
    Russell Johnson. Loved him for his brains, but was disgusted by his inability to nail Ginger or Mary Ann, even when they were throwing themselves at him.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  191. Akabari

    @ Suburban kid:
    Why is Renteria even making a pitch? Today Jed it was a “group of 5 people” that included Theo, Ricketts, and himself. So I wonder who the 5th person was… Clark?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  192. Suburban kid

    I googled “sweatpants guru got his shit” and this is what came up

    [img]http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/07/26/article-2179421-143A9F36000005DC-688_468x743.jpg[/img]

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  193. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    So, the Tribune is still full of liars. Here’s what he said, and if I had time I’d write a post about the lying liars at the Tribune.

    “We’re a club that has a lot of talent besides the guys we have here presently,” Renteria said. “The organization has the quality of player coming up that’s going to significantly (make an impact).

    “The question is, in the end, what are we trying to do with these players? Do we want them to believe they’re going to come in here just to be here? No. We want them to come here and know they have to perform, they have to execute and have to play to win. And it takes a lot of different pieces for us as an organization and as a club to come together. It’s going to take a lot of people to do it.”

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  195. uncle dave

    @ Suburban kid:
    Those are some sweet Chanel hobo gloves.

    I think y’all might be underestimating the challenges (real and/or perceived) of making a move to another country. There’s some interesting stuff out there on how international transfers are handled and what impact they have in professional soccer, where there’s ample precedent to look at.

    The difference between Tanaka’s move to the US and, say, the average player from the Caribbean or Latin America is significant. Most of those latins have six years to spend adjusting to life in the minors (and the ones who aren’t good at adjusting wash out). They also don’t have much in terms of an alternative. Tanaka, on the other hand, is already rich, he’s going to get paid no matter where he goes, and he does have other folks who are going to influence his decision. He also won’t have as many fellow countrymen to help him with the adjustment process.

    Maybe he takes the best deal, or maybe the best deal he has is the one he’d have wanted to take anyway. I don’t think that this angle is one that can be entirely dismissed, though.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  196. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    uncle dave wrote:

    Maybe he takes the best deal, or maybe the best deal he has is the one he’d have wanted to take anyway. I don’t think that this angle is one that can be entirely dismissed, though.

    I wouldn’t dismiss it, but I think there have also been enough Japanese players who have come to the US that we could probably say the process is somewhat similar. More than likely, they accept the highest bid with tiebreakers going to closest to contention and perhaps proximity to family.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  197. Smokestack Lightning

    Figures. After I ranted and raved about how the Dodgers probably aren’t in on Tanaka, here comes this piece about them having talks with him all week.

    http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/10311310/los-angeles-dodgers-complete-clayton-kershaw-deal-not-done-spending

    Still doesn’t make sense to me, though. This is a team built to win now more so than 5 years from now (though with pockets like theirs, I suppose they’ll probably always be built to win now). My guess is Tanaka is probably a 2-4 WAR pitcher going forward, which is nice and all, but Cano over the present championship window would likely be worth a good deal more, and the Dodgers have tremendous need at 2B. They have 6 pitchers in their rotation (though Beckett and Billingsley are mighty rickety these days). If Tanaka, then they have to probably deal one or both of Beckett or Billingsley, which means a dump job that will waste even more money. I dunno, maybe this shit doesn’t matter when you have this much money, but I’d be pretty pissed if this were the Cubs wasting oodles of cash like this and for returns that may not make the team that any better.

    Basically I can’t figure out why the Dodgers would forgo the HOF bat at a position of need to create a massive logjam in their rotation over an unproven, very expensive arm. It makes me think the Dodgers are morons who don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  198. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    @ Smokestack Lightning:
    I would guess the Dodgers are in on Tanaka if he proves to be cheaper than Cano in terms of dollars per win. If the cost gets too high then I think they bow out. They’d have signed Cano instead as you’ve pointed out.

    I think it was Dave who said that he really only sees 6 teams as legit bidders and maybe half of them being the ones left at the end or something. I disagree. I think we’re basically blind with regards to how much this is going to cost. If we knew for sure it was $150 million I’d agree with Dave.

    I don’t think we can say that for any certainty. Cubs reporters aren’t know for knowing anything, but they still seem to think the Cubs are a longshot at best. To believe that they’re either ignorant (they are) or they think the Cubs will only spend a certain amount (they will). Should we be confident they know what that figure is? I’m not, but I’m confident they know more than I do.

    I still see at least 10 teams as legit candidates at this point and maybe even more depending on how much it costs.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  199. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89, Sweatpants Guru wrote:

    I think we’re basically blind with regards to how much this is going to cost. If we knew for sure it was $150 million I’d agree with Dave.

    Yeah. Much of my argument is based on the belief that Tanaka will cost 20-25MM per to land, no matter who gets him.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  200. Suburban kid

    uncle dave wrote:

    @ Suburban kid:
    Those are some sweet Chanel hobo gloves.

    That’s Madge by the way. I wouldn’t have recognized her with the veiny arms.

    You might be right about underestimating the challenges (real and/or perceived) of making a move to another country.etc etc. Or, you might be overestimating the challenges. It could either way.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  202. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    @ Suburban kid:

    Tanaka coming to the US is a known known. This is the thing we know we know.

    Since we don’t know what team he’ll play for, this is the known unknown, that is to say, this is the thing that we know we don’t know.

    But there are also unknown unknowns. These are the things we do not know we don’t know.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  205. Mucker

    I have a question…..is it really smart for the Cubs to just throw as much money at Tanaka as possible to make sure they get him? At what point do the Cubs say “Shit, this guy isn’t worth this money”. I hope the Cubs are considered favorites to sign him because they really believe he’s worth it rather than they are just signing him because they feel they have to ala Soriano in 2006.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  207. Edwin

    @ Mucker:

    I think when you go after a FA like a Tanaka, it’s not always about being smart, or making a deal in line with $/WAR valuations. It’s more about how much do you need a player, and how much can you afford. It’s hard to put an exact dollar figure on where that point is for the Cubs.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  209. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    @ Mucker:
    Tanaka’s performance in Japan is a known known. How he’ll do in the US is also known unknown. We know we don’t that. My spreadsheet says the Cubs max bid for any known unknown should be about $150 million. There are also unknown unknowns. Those are the things we don’t know we don’t know.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  211. Mucker

    @ Edwin:
    Well it’s not my money so I don’t really care too much where I won’t be happy they sign him. But I was just curious if this is a situation where they say “fuck it, let’s do whatever it takes”.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  212. SVB

    uncle dave wrote:

    which I’m sure you’re all too young to remember:

    Uh, yeah. Was that the first color cartoon?

    Suburban kid wrote:

    but was disgusted by his inability to nail Ginger or Mary Ann, even when they were throwing themselves at him.

    Professors tend to be very single minded, except for me, I get distracted by this one totally discredited Cubs blog all the time. I’m pretty sure it’s totally eroding what little capability I had to focus.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  216. Smokestack Lightning

    And some more late night Tanaka shit (that none of you fuckers will see until morning):

    Gordo thinks the Cubs have no shot, since he is more aware of how dire their financial situation is than they are, and all but wonders why they even bothered to contact Tanaka in the first place.

    http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/25003436-573/tanaka-to-cubs-beating-out-yankees-dodgers-would-be-huge-upset.html

    Color me shocked by this, as I wasn’t aware Wittenmyer still had a column.

    And CSN’s Mooney facefucks the Hope Monster even more…

    http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/theo-deflects-tanaka-buzz-knowing-cubs-face-tough-questions

    …with this tidbit standing out:

    But sources insist all the Twitter speculation about the Cubs doesn’t match up with the realistic sense inside the organization that a big-money team like the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers will probably go all-out to sign Tanaka.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  217. EnricoPallazzo, Subliminal Assassin Guru, Esquire

    @ Mucker:
    i think that overpaying for tanaka (or anyone) has intangible benefits. you convince the fans that you’re serious (thus driving in more revenue) and you convince other players that you’re serious 9thus making it easier an/or cheaper to sign future FAs). The yankees operated in the red for years, but in every one of those years, they increased the dollar value of the franchise. losing, say $10m a year b/c you’re paying $25m/year for a 2.6 WAR player might not look great, but it can build the value of the franchise. might be worth it in certain situations – say, when you have a tv contract that’s up for renewal.

    not sure if there’s any validity to that, just saying that there might be certain situations where a contract’s value is not strictly tied to WAR.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  218. Smokestack Lightning

    @ EnricoPallazzo, Subliminal Assassin Guru, Esquire:

    Agreed. My primary interest in the Cubs signing Tanaka is probably more about the positive psychological impact he’ll have on the organization and its fans than it is on what he’ll actually do on the field. If the Cubs nab him I expect a loss in terms of strict WAR to $ return. He’ll get paid like a 4-5 win pitcher year in and out but I expect 2-3 is where he’ll shake out. Under normal circumstances that would make me want to pass given the cost, but like everybody else, I just want to see some sign that the Cubs are planning to contend sometime this decade. Tanaka is that.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  219. EnricoPallazzo, Subliminal Assassin Guru, Esquire

    @ EnricoPallazzo, Subliminal Assassin Guru, Esquire:
    perfect example: just read a twitternet whereby F7 implied that a tanaka signing might make him more inclined to stick around. so overpay for tanaka, he sucks, take the loss, sign players for cheap(er), etc…some other step…profit…some other step…perennial contenders for the world series.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  228. Smokestack Lightning

    MLB source believes Cubs are lead team for Tanaka. (@MLBBruceLevine)

    Japanese source said Tanaka loves a challenge and wants to be the man. All that is waiting for him at Clark and Addison. (@MLBBruceLevine)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  229. Suburban kid

    Smokestack Lightning wrote:

    MLB source believes Cubs are lead team for Tanaka. (@MLBBruceLevine)

    Japanese source said Tanaka loves a challenge and wants to be the man. All that is waiting for him at Clark and Addison. (@MLBBruceLevine)

    [img]http://obstructedview.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Hope-Monster1.png[/img]

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  230. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    just get tanaka. fuck this shit. just tell him if he helps Cubs win WS, he will be remembered in baseball forever. not true in LA or NYY. Open the goddam checkbook richetts.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0

Leave a Comment