Over the last week we’ve looked at the top 20 Cubs prospects according to John Sickels and how they’re performing this season. We’ve also looked at 15 or 16 additional players worthy of some discussion for one reason or another. Many of the 2010 draft picks, especially the high school ones, have very little playing time to their name. Few of the 2011 draft picks have any playing time and less than 20 of the 50 have been signed.
I hadn’t intended to write this part in the series, but a few thoughts came to mind as I was writing these last three parts and I thought I’d share them. Anyone who has been around here or read my stuff knows that I haven’t thought too highly of the Cubs farm system this season. I felt that way entering the season, but prior to the season I was a bit more optimistic than I had been. After looking over the performances thoroughly I think I may been wrong. The farm system does appear to be in better shape than I had thought.
The Cubs top prospect, Brett Jackson, is having another great season. Strikeouts are an issue, but he’s getting on base, which is what he’s going to be asked to do at the big league level as he’ll almost certainly be the leadoff hitter. Jackson has needed little to no time to adjust to new levels throughout his professional career and has shown the potential of being a very productive player.
Trey McNutt, the highest ranked pitching prospect entering the season, has suffered some injuries, but none of them arm-related. It hard to figure out too much when looking at his stats when you consider the blister problems as well as the performance after coming back from a collision. He’s not even thrown 50 innings yet.
Ryan Flaherty is hitting the ball exceptionally well. DJ LeMahieu has even done the same and was promoted to the big leagues to sit on the bench for awhile. Robert Whitenack emerged early this season as the breakout performer in the organization only to have his season cut short with elbow surgery.
Jeffrey Beliveau has continued to improve his control while also striking out a ton of batters. He’s very difficult to hit and even righties have struggled against him. He looks like a late-inning reliever for sure. Chris Rusin is in AAA now and has the best control in the organization. He’s not a top of the rotation starter, but if he continues to progress, he could provide some value at the backend of the rotation. Nicholas Struck is only 21 years old and already in AAA. He has more potential than Rusin and considering his age for the levels he’s played in, it’s difficult to estimate his true talent level going forward, but he’s more than held his own against older competition.
Austin Kirk has been ridiculously tough to hit and Matt Szczur has hit everything he’s seen. It seems clear the organization is in a better position than I initially thought.
While there are still no impact players, the system does have a number of players who could contribute some value in the near future.
I hadn’t intended to write this part in the series, but a few thoughts came to mind as I was writing these last three parts and I thought I’d share them. Anyone who has been around here or read my stuff knows that I haven’t thought too highly of the Cubs farm system this season. I felt that way entering the season, but prior to the season I was a bit more optimistic than I had been. After looking over the performances thoroughly I think I may have been too kind previously. The farm system appears to be in worse shape than I had thought.
Brett Jackson’s strikeouts haven’t held him back thus far, but he’s going to have BABIP his way to a decent batting average at the big league level. He’ll walk plenty so his OBP will still be solid, but it could easily be league average or worse. He’s going to strikeout more at the big league level than he has so far, which is not a good sign. He’ll also walk less, have less power, his defense will be worse and there’s already discussion about whether or not he can remain in CF. A leadoff hitter, which is what the Cubs have him pegged as, who doesn’t get on base at an above average rate would be terrible for any offense. If he has to move to a corner, much of his value is gone. There are a lot of question marks with Jackson.
Trey McNutt has had a number of blister issues and a collision that has kept his inning total to less than 50 and those 50 have been unimpressive to just plain bad. His strikeouts declined after his late-season promotion last year and they’ve continued to decline even further. His current strikeout rate leaves one little reason to hope he’ll be anything more than a bullpen arm and maybe not even a good one at that. We already saw what a big decline in strikeouts did to Jay Jackson when he got to AAA.
While Ryan Flaherty continues to hit, he also continues to be passed over for other players like DJ LeMahieu. He’s without a position having played less than half his games at 2nd base. He’s old for his level and the only time he’s been challenged was at the beginning of the 2010 season and he failed miserably.
Beliveau has excellent strikeout numbers and a good walk rate. He’ll more than likely provide value to the Cubs in the future, but they already have Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall at the backend of their bullpen. Beliveau’s value will be limited. At 21, Nicholas Struck is already at AAA, but at 5-11, 185, endurance becomes an issue. Beyond that, he’s allowed nearly a hit per inning and struckout only 7.1 per 9. Solid numbers overall, but not a top of the rotation or even a middle of the rotation pitcher in the future.
Robert Whitenack emerged early as this season’s breakout pitcher, which kind of says enough as it is. Anyway, after his fantastic start, he went down with a torn elbow ligament and will miss a year. Chris Rusin has been solid, but again, he’s a backend of the rotation starter and that’s if he progresses as one would expect.
Matt Szczur has little to no power, but makes a lot of contact. He has decent on-base skills, but even if he progressed as one would expect, he’s no impact player and he’s years away from making any impact anyway.
Alberto Cabrera, ranked 10th by Sickels, has been bad. Number 9 prospect Austin Reed has given up more than a hit per inning at Boise. Number 8 prospect Robinson Lopez strikes out less than 6.5 per 9. Josh Vitters, ranked 7th, hasn’t got a chance in hell of being a Major League player. At number 5 is Hayden Simpson. After getting rocked at Peoria, he’s getting rocked in Rookie League. Jay Jackson was number 4. Enough said. Christopher Carpenter was number 3 and he’s now a reliever so yawn. We already talked about Trey McNutt and Brett Jackson.
Marquez Smith is number 11 and nobody even wanted him in the Rule 5 Draft. DJ LeMahieu is 12th. No power whatsoever. On-base skills are lacking. At 13th was Rafael Dolis and he’s now a reliever and only Ok considering he’s been at AA for awhile now. Brooks Raley is 15th and he strikes out fewer batters than Casey Coleman. Su-Min Jung isn’t any good.
If there weren’t a dozen or more players in the top 20 who have fallen flat on their faces this season, you could bet good money some of them would be out of the top 20. As it is, most probably remain in the top 20 because they’ve all sucked.
It’s true the organization has had some risers this season, but they’ve had more decline. Plus, even the ones who have risen have decent potential. None of them are impact players.
Tim Wilken has had 5+ years to do something with this organization and we get this?
Comments
Hendry’s had a lot longer than that…
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
It’s part of Wilken’s master plan, MB. Also noticed you had a deja vu moment in your piece, but overall I agree with your thoughts.
TOOTBLAN!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing), oh the Cubs
BerseliusQuote Reply
Speaking of Hendry, a product of his ND fetish is getting whacked around pretty good out there.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Try to take an extra base down 8-0. Let’s see what happens. (dying laughing)
cwolfQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), oh the Cubs[/quote]So bad. I’m gonna go watch a movie with the wife.
MO out, fuckfaces.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
What’s the opposite of a nail-biter?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]What’s the opposite of a nail-biter?[/quote]
A manicure?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]A manicure?[/quote](dying laughing) I guess it would be.
mb21Quote Reply
This game is a manicure.
Doesn’t have a ring to it. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Chris Archer is having a good night. The Smokies pitcher, Matt Loosen, having a better one though, with a no-hitter through three innings.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Scraptastic double.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Now it’s a nail-biter
mb21Quote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
DeWitt.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Chris Archer is having a good night. The Smokies pitcher, Matt Loosen, having a better one though, with a no-hitter through three innings.[/quote]He was a 2010 draft pick (23rd round I think).
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
DeWitt.[/quote]
Vital Cog!
melissaQuote Reply
I cursed Loosen. No more no-hitter or shutout.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]What’s the opposite of a nail-biter?[/quote]
Anal fisting.
MishQuote Reply
Bah…no BABIP happiness for Kosuke.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Looks like Archer still has control issues. 54 pitches, only 30 for strikes. Only 2 BB so far though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Wow, I stop following the game for an hour and all hell breaks loose.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]who? (dying laughing), I know nothing about the AL[/quote]I admit, I didn’t know who he (Jordan Walden) was before I looked him up on Fangraphs.
ACTQuote Reply
Garza has nearly doubled his career error total this year. It must be something about the Cubs uniform that makes you suck at defense.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Garza has nearly doubled his career error total this year. It must be something about the Cubs uniform that makes you suck at defense.[/quote]Never heard that theory, but I like it.
mb21Quote Reply
Poor Garza. He got his BABIP all the way down to .305 before this game.
ACTQuote Reply
Castro wuz robbed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Castro is having terrible luck today.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Never heard that theory, but I like it.[/quote]It’s a law, actually.
MishQuote Reply
Pena!
ACTQuote Reply
PEENYA!!!
melissaQuote Reply
The Cubs can’t even lose right (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]The Cubs can’t even lose right (dying laughing)[/quote]
No reason to think they still won’t find a way to lose this game, it’s what they do after all. (dying laughing)
melissaQuote Reply
I got 2-run walkoff sac fly. It’s gonna happen.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing), I put on a dvd and made some dinner. What the fuck happened?
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), I put on a dvd and made some dinner. What the fuck happened?[/quote]Nationals out-cubbing the Cubs.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius] What the fuck happened?[/quote]
Shit just got real. (dying laughing)
melissaQuote Reply
Wow, I didn’t realize Barney’s wOBA has dropped below .300. I’ve been listening to too much Brenly I guess (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
Double WTF at his .298 wOBA and average fielding/baserunning numbers translate to 1 WAR
BerseliusQuote Reply
Sean Marshall is good. How much can we get for him in trade?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Double WTF at his .298 wOBA and average fielding/baserunning numbers translate to 1 WAR[/quote]
fWAR? I think rWAR is a bit more harsh.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Ben Zobrist is a double shy of the cycle.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ben Zobrist is a double shy of the cycle.[/quote]
He won’t get it barring a miracle comeback or the Rays batting around…just walked.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Wow, I didn’t realize Barney’s wOBA has dropped below .300. I’ve been listening to too much Brenly I guess (dying laughing)[/quote]Like, I’ve been plastering this all over FB and Twitter for a week or two now. DUDE.
MishQuote Reply
Archer has shut out the Smokies through six full.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]fWAR? I think rWAR is a bit more harsh.[/quote]
I think rWAR has a higher replacement level, right? It also uses BatRuns and Total Zone.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Double WTF at his .298 wOBA and average fielding/baserunning numbers translate to 1 WAR[/quote]League average wOBA is .319.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I think rWAR has a higher replacement level, right? It also uses BatRuns and Total Zone.[/quote]
Yeah, it’s calculated differently for sure but you’d know better than I. I thought they actually used DRS but I could be wrong.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
April may officially be over…Fukudome 1-for-5.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Being below .300 wOBA actually meant something a few years ago when offense was insane, but now it’s just below average.
mb21Quote Reply
Total Zone in rWAR.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Being below .300 wOBA actually meant something a few years ago when offense was insane, but now it’s just below average.[/quote]
Yeah, my baselines are just all messed up now I guess (dying laughing). It also seems like it was just yesterday that Barney came off the DL
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Yeah, my baselines are just all messed up now I guess (dying laughing). It also seems like it was just yesterday that Barney came off the DL[/quote]I still get messed up when I look at FIP. I’ll see some Cubs pitchers below 4 and think awesome, but then I realize average FIP is 3.85. So yeah, not so good.
mb21Quote Reply
It was just 2009 when average wOBA was .333.
mb21Quote Reply
Trade Rami!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Being below .300 wOBA actually meant something a few years ago when offense was insane, but now it’s just below average.[/quote]
If average is .319, I’d consider .298 a bit worse than “just” below average. But yeah. I’m not complaining too much about Barney because of his production-to-cost ratio.
MishQuote Reply
Rays win.
Jeter stuck on 2998.
Marshall almost lost his gonads on that game-tying hit.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Does correcting a Sully tweet (retweeted by Kapman) constitute a doublekill or shooting fish in a barrel?
MishQuote Reply
Pretty good game between the mini-Cubs and mini-Rays:
http://www.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2010/index.jsp?gid=2011_07_07_tenaax_monaax_1
BJax having a decent night.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Quade should be shot if Byrd sac bunts Soto to 2nd so Campana can pinch hit.
melissaQuote Reply
Wait, are the Cubs gonna bunt with Byrd to give Campana a chance to drive in Soto? (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Fucking small ball.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Unfucking real. Quade is an idiot. Even Brenly called that, Soto too slow to be sac bunted by a guy that’s not a great bunter.
melissaQuote Reply
And now your speed threat is being blocked by a slower man in front of him even if he gets on base (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]And now your speed threat is being blocked by a slower man in front of him even if he gets on base (dying laughing)[/quote]
No longer a problem, one base clogger removed. Anyone who thinks Quade knows shit from shinola is just kidding themselves.
melissaQuote Reply
Bunting with a 3-1 count was stupid. With a 3-1 count, even Byrd will hit like Albert Pujols. Would you have Pujols lay down a bunt?
ACTQuote Reply
At least they got their man on second base now (dying laughing)
Oy vey…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
It worked out anyway. Quade is a genius.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]Unfucking real. Quade is an idiot. Even Brenly called that, Soto too slow to be sac bunted by a guy that’s not a great bunter.[/quote]And relatively, Byrd is one of the team’s better hitters.
And now the Cubs lead. Man, they’ll be off the hook for one of the biggest brain cramps I’ve seen in a while.
MishQuote Reply
Why wasn’t Campana sent in to pinch run for Geo initially? This is just fucking stupid. It’s never a good idea to use Campana as a pinch hitter and especially not when there is a runner on base. You want to have Byrd sac bunt Soto to 2nd so Campana can drive him in? That’s just stupid, of course the Cubs can’t execute it anyway. The Cubs fail to execute a stupid plan and still score, Let’s See What Happens. (dying laughing)
melissaQuote Reply
Walk off 2-run sac fly still in effect.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]Why wasn’t Campana sent in to pinch run for Geo initially? This is just fucking stupid. It’s never a good idea to use Campana as a pinch hitter and especially not when there is a runner on base. You want to have Byrd sac bunt Soto to 2nd so Campana can drive him in? That’s just stupid, of course the Cubs can’t execute it anyway. The Cubs fail to execute a stupid plan and still score, Let’s See What Happens. (dying laughing)[/quote]
After Soto reached, it’s like Quade’s brain decided to GTFO.
MishQuote Reply
It worked, therefore Quade = genius. Done deal sealed.
….except for the part where the LF defense just got bad arm-wise.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]After Soto reached, it’s like Quade’s brain decided to GTFO.[/quote]
That’s seriously one of the stupidest ideas I’ve ever seen from a manager, ever, and I’ve watched the Cubs a very long time. It literally makes no fucking sense. I’ll admit I’ve been no fan of Quade but this was beyond moronic and even dumber than I could have ever imagined.
melissaQuote Reply
Dammit, Marm. What is it with you and putting the leadoff man on base?
ACTQuote Reply
This is the first time I’ve actually gotten to see Marmol pitch this season. Looks like he’s put on a bit of weight.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Dammit, Marm. You made 2 wild pitches all season, and they both come in the same series.
ACTQuote Reply
Thank God.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Dammit, Marm. You made 2 wild pitches all season, and they both come in the same series.[/quote]And might be consequential.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Thank God.[/quote]
Really? Not exactly a Cubs fan
melissaQuote Reply
This was surprising (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cubs not swept
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]Really? Not exactly a Cubs fan[/quote]I’m trying to convert him.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]That’s seriously one of the stupidest ideas I’ve ever seen from a manager, ever, and I’ve watched the Cubs a very long time. It literally makes no fucking sense. I’ll admit I’ve been no fan of Quade but this was beyond moronic and even dumber than I could have ever imagined.[/quote]This assumes the team is actually trying to win. I’m not convinced they are.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I’m trying to convert him.[/quote]
Crane Kenney would like a word with you.
melissaQuote Reply
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110706&content_id=21484654&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&partnerId=rss_chc
mb21Quote Reply
If it was me, I’d say his name is pronounced like Caesar’s Pizza just because it make me laugh.
mb21Quote Reply
Jose Bautista is pretty good at hitting home runs.
ACTQuote Reply
So are the Red Sox, apparently.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Bunting with a 3-1 count was stupid. With a 3-1 count, even Byrd will hit like Albert Pujols. Would you have Pujols lay down a bunt?[/quote]To elaborate further: the average hitter (and what is Byrd if not an average hitter?) has a wOBA of .498 after going 3-1. That’s better than Pujols: it’s Ted Williams territory. Quade essentially asked Ted Williams to lay down a sac bunt (with a catch running).
ACTQuote Reply
(source: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/3/2150664/chart-detailing-how-batters-fare-after-every-count-2002-2010-mlb-data )
ACTQuote Reply
* “catch” should be “catcher.”
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]To elaborate further: the average hitter (and what is Byrd if not an average hitter?) has a wOBA of .498 after going 3-1. That’s better than Pujols: it’s Ted Williams territory. Quade essentially asked Ted Williams to lay down a sac bunt (with a catch running).[/quote]
Cubs.com unfortunately does not have this play as one of their highlights (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
That would have been a perfect moment for the Mercurial Outfielder bunt signal. Where’d that gif go?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Oh yeah, and the infield was expecting a bunt, both making the bunt more risky, and swinging away more appetizing. I bet Byrd could have hit like Barry Bonds on steroids in that situation.
ACTQuote Reply
reggie golden is an interesting guy. he might have the best eye outside of Jackson at this point.
Paul Holiman has a walk, a strikeout and a homer. These are his only options. Ben Wells with a decent start as well
dylanjQuote Reply
I harrassed grabow for 6 strong and then left…
I fly to chicago at 6 am for a weekend of dmb. If you see someone in southcarolina shit or someone in a cubs blue jersey with 41 grux on the back say hello
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Barry Zito has actually been competent coming back from the DL. Helps that he got to face the Cubs and the Padres though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/07/man-dies-after-falling-from-stands-at-rangers-ballpark/
Comments are stupid, but you have to feel bad for the guy and his son, as well as Josh Hamilton who was just trying to do something nice for a fan.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]I harrassed grabow for 6 strong and then left…
I fly to chicago at 6 am for a weekend of dmb. If you see someone in southcarolina shit or someone in a cubs blue jersey with 41 grux on the back say hello[/quote]I won free tickets to the Saturday showing so I’ll see if I see you. I don’t know what I’m wearing yet tho (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/07/man-dies-after-falling-from-stands-at-rangers-ballpark/
Comments are stupid, but you have to feel bad for the guy and his son, as well as Josh Hamilton who was just trying to do something nice for a fan.[/quote]
Watched that live. Can’t believe the guy died. Horrible.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
^^(dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
Mike Trout —–> big leagues
MishQuote Reply
(dying laughing), MB:
…
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
it’s a weird system, Shawn. I did come away thinking that the organization was a little better than I thought and a lot worse at the same time. There are some players with potential to be big league players, but not impact ones. We saw in 2008 that you can have a great team with just really good players. However, prospects fail and it’s just not likely these players reach what we see as their potential. So on that end, it’s just ugly.
mb21Quote Reply
jtsunamiQuote Reply
That should read:
Real VitaminWater to fake book ratio — 3:1
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]it’s a weird system, Shawn. I did come away thinking that the organization was a little better than I thought and a lot worse at the same time. There are some players with potential to be big league players, but not impact ones. We saw in 2008 that you can have a great team with just really good players. However, prospects fail and it’s just not likely these players reach what we see as their potential. So on that end, it’s just ugly.[/quote]
I just thought it was funny. I haven’t paid any attention at all this season, and enjoyed reading the series. That part just made me laugh a little.
On the whole, reading your summaries doesn’t give me any hope in the one place I was looking for it.
As the former neighborhood optimist, I suggest we count our blessing that the trade bait is playing well at the moment.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
I wonder what the forehead to hair ratio is. Or the neck beard to hair ratio.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]I wonder what the forehead to hair ratio is. Or the neck beard to hair ratio.[/quote]
The neckbeard to hair ratio is much less than 1 Orton.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
abbreviated series preview up
http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/previews/series-preview-iowa-cubs-of-chicago-36-53-at-pittsburgh-pirates-45-42.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
No. Cubs system is bad. Probably bottom six right now
We had zero five-star prospects entering the season. We traded 4 of our top 12 for Garza. H. J Lee is ranked No. 22 on BA’s midseason top-prospects list. Lee leads his Hi-A team in OPS. B Guyer leads his AAA team and has gotten two call-ups.
Of the eight top12 Cubbie prospects from the preseason that we retained, most of flopped badly. McNutt has 4.80 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and he’s gotten worse lately.
B Jax is at No. 32 on the midseason list. He still projects well, but he’s not ready. BA is .260, and he’s K’ing 1 of every 4 PA’s. That’d be okay for a big-power guy, not for a guy who can get a leg single on any bleeder to medium short.
Szczur is promising, but he’s got a weird swing and, being at Peoria, he’s several steps away. He’s at No. 48 on the midseason list.
R Flaherty has raised his stock a lot from utility expectations to possible starting 3B. Lefty hitter who hits lefties very well.
W Castillo, S Clevenger could form a nice lefty-righty hitting catching platoon
But we have not one projectable star. And we’ve mostly shuffled in a new group of just-okay prospects in place of a largely failed group. The most telltale fall-off indicator was the absence of good, ready pitchers in the upper ranks; that used to be one of our few strengths. In every conceivable area, Hendry has gone from bad to puke-inducing incompetent.
mikecQuote Reply