It’s the bottom of the 8th inning on Saturday night and I had sat in Kaufmann Stadium and watched the Cubs and Royals play a very good game. It was well pitched. The umpires, at least from my perspective, made all the right calls. There were some nice plays on defense made by each team. Both teams put runners on, but the opposing pitcher was better than the hitters when it mattered.
To be quite honest, I was quite surprised to see these two teams play a game that actually resembled a Major League game. Prior to the game the Royals held a .5 game advantage on the Cubs for the 2nd pick of next year’s draft. Only the Astros have been worse than either of these teams. If we saw what would typically be a minor league game, it would not be the least bit surprising. It was, in fact, exactly what I expected to see this series. Just two very good minor league teams squaring off at the Major League level in a battle for the second worst record in baseball.
So it was refreshing to see a well played game, especially after last night’s debacle. Both teams lived up to their minor league hype on Friday as each team tried to best the other. In the end it was the Royals who proved to be more inept than the Cubs on Friday. But on Saturday, that was good baseball. That was good Major League Baseball.
Prior to the bottom of the 8th, my only complaint to that point was that I thought whoever the hell that AAA pitching coach is for the Cubs should have visited Carlos Zambrano in the 5th inning after he went 1-0 following the walk. A real pitching coach, say Larry Rothschild, would have ran out to the mound to give Z a breather and give him a moment to settle down. Perhaps it makes no difference. It probably doesn’t so it’s only a minor complaint. Can’t blame Zambrano’s ineffectiveness that inning on the pitching coach. That’s Z’s fault. Would have been nice to see a real pitching coach in the Cubs dugout who could have ran to the mound to talk about what they’re going to have for breakfast tomorrow morning. I don’t know. Not likely it made a bit of difference in the end, but it’s something Major League pitching coaches do.
Then came the bottom of the 8th. I was quite pleased with how Zambrano had battled all night. He didn’t have his best stuff, allowed some baserunners, but made pitches when he needed to. After allowing two runs the Cubs came right back with back to back home runs and Z goes out there in the 6th and 7th and has his best innings. Shut down innings.
I look into the bullpen and see a lefty throwing knowing Z’s night is done. Sweet. Good start for Big Z and now they turn it over to the back-end of the bullpen. It’s gotta be Sean Marshall. Tie game, bottom of the 8th, he’s your setup man, it’s obvious. That lefty in the bullpen is Sean Marshall. I didn’t even bother to take a second look because it had to be Sean Marshall. The possibility of another lefty being up never even entered my mind. I’m not joking. I’ve been watching this team since the early 80s and I can honestly say that I took a look into the bullpen, saw the lefty, looked away knowing for certain it was Sean Marshall. Had to be. It fucking had to be, because any other lefty up in the pen would have been flat out fucking retarded. Sean Marshall was up in the bullpen. Or so I thought.
Turns out the lefty is John Grabow. That’s bad enough, but it gets worse. Grabow easily gets Alex Gordon out. Nothing is easy for John Grabow, but trust me, getting Alex Gordon out on this night was easy for him. The Royals naturally pinch hit for Mitch Maier with Jeff Francouer. Speaking of this, is the first time in history that a player whose name had three consecutive vowels in a row was pinch hit for with a guy whose name also had three consecutive vowels? Probalby not, but those names always piss me off. I can never remember how to spell them.
Anyway, Francouer up and Mike Moustakas on deck. For those not paying attention, that’s a right-hander at bat and a left-hander on deck. There’s one out so you’re looking at the next two batters. One righty, one lefty. What do you do?
Well, you have a couple choices. First, you bring out a righty and have a lefty ready in the pen to face Mike Moustakas. Why? Because it doesn’t fucking matter if you have you have a lefty or right on the mound when Francouer comes up. Whoever is facing the next two batters is going to face one righty and one lefty. That’s right. There is no way around it. One righty (Francouer) and one lefty (Moustakas). It’s science.
If you bring in the righty, you have the platoon advantage vs. Francouer but the disadvantage vs. Moustakas. If you leave the lefty in you have the disadvantage vs Francouer and the advantage vs. Moustakas. If you don’t have a calculator or spreadsheet handy, that’s one platoon advantage and one platoon disadvantage. No. Matter. What.
The second option is to go with with the guy in the game or bring in the righty (Jeff Samardzija since he was up in the pen). As bad at baseball as John Grabow is, does anybody honestly believe that Jeff Samardzija is anywhere as close to as good as Grabow? Forget that shit though. Where the hell was Sean Marshall?
You got lucky with Gordon vs Grabow. If you want to do the lefty/righty/left thing, I’m OK with that even though I think it’s not necessary. But no matter what, if you take the lefty out you have another lefty up to replace the righty when Moustakas comes to bat. Under no circumstances do you ever take out any relief pitcher on the planet who is scheduled for one platoon advantage and disadvantage for Jeff Samardzija who is also going to have the same advantage/disadvantage as the lefty.
A well played game by both teams quickly became a game that was difficult to even watch. I don’t mind if players make mistakes. I don’t even mind if the manager occasionally makes a mistake, but this one is unaceptable. These decisions were some of the worst I’ve seen Quade make. The guy couldn’t even figure out that it didn’t matter if you brought a righty in that you were still going to face one righty and one lefty. That’s ridiculous.
I skimmed through the comments last night and I disagree about the Reed Johnson play at the plate. Gordon picked the ball up when Johnson had just rounded third. I send the runner every time in that situation unless it’s someone like Ramirez or Soto. Gordon has a strong arm, the throw wasn’t perfect, but he got to the catcher in time to make the play. It happens. I don’t want station to station baseball.
Off the top of my head last night I figured the WE for the Royals without sending the runners was probably 42 to 43 percent or so and after the out about 55%. Thereabouts. Too lazy to look it up. If I’m wrong, tell me. So that play cost the Cubs a -.125 chance of winning. Pretty big play, but not a huge one by any stretch of the imagination. If Reed scores it’s probably a WE of 36%. So he gained .065 if he scored and lost .125 if he didn’t. He have to be safe on that play two out of ever three times to make it worth it. You may disagree that he wasn’t going to be safe on that one, but in order to gain bases you absolutely must accept that you will occasionally make outs on the bases. That’s just how it works. I don’t know for sure if he’s safe two out of three times, but I’m sending him. I’m sending every runner who has rounded 3rd at the time he picks the ball up.
I hate outs on the bases as much as the next guy, but you’ve got two options: play station to station baseball or accept that sometimes you’re going to run into outs on the bases. I don’t know about you guys, but if I was a manager and I played a team that played station to station, I’m position my outfielders as deep as possible. I’m going to take away every extra base hit but the home run of course. In order to bring those outfielders in, you have to make some outs on the bases.
If you’re not making outs on the bases on those plays, the outfielders are playing too deep. That’s never going to happen because they will come in as far as they need to cut you down right at the breakeven point. The same is true with infield defense on a bunt. You play your 3rd baseman in as far as possible so that if the batter bunts you can get him out at the breakeven point. That way the batter doesn’t have an advantage when he bunts. On the other hand, you give him some advantage on swinging away. There’s a tradeoff and it’s not just on bunts, but running the bases too.
Comments
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Here’s how you get public money for a stadium: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/06/26/free-tickets-helped-cardinals-build-relationships-with-arizona-legislators/ (dying laughing)[/quote]Or you could do what the Cubs did in Mesa. Get the taxpayers to pay for the new ballpark and NOT give away a single dime to anybody. Ricketts was a lot more successful in getting the new spring training stadium than the Cardinals were. There’s never one way to get something done.
mb2111111Quote Reply
I have a rebuttal coming up later tonight to Tim’s post from yesterday. I figure Adam and Tim had already done a rebuttal so I wanted in on the action.
mb2111111Quote Reply
[quote name=mb2111111]Or you could do what the Cubs did in Mesa. Get the taxpayers to pay for the new ballpark and NOT give away a single dime to anybody. Ricketts was a lot more successful in getting the new spring training stadium than the Cardinals were. There’s never one way to get something done.[/quote]What he did in Mesa will not work in Chicago. It just won’t.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Apropos of the title of this article:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]What he did in Mesa will not work in Chicago. It just won’t.[/quote]I disagree, but that’s fine. If I owned the team I’d just move them to Vegan and make more money than I ever imagined. I would hope they’d act as you expect them to because I’d relocate if they didn’t get on their hands and knees and blow me while giving me million dollar bills.
mb2111111Quote Reply
Vegas. (dying laughing) Vegan. (dying laughing)
mb2111111Quote Reply
[quote name=mb2111111]Vegas. (dying laughing) Vegan. (dying laughing)[/quote]
(dying laughing), Julie got some flack for making fun of the fact that Wrigley has gluten-free food and not vegan food last week.
BerseliusQuote Reply
As I was readign this, I started to wonder how one might go about fixing the Cubs, and I realized, I think for the first time, just how truly fucked this org is.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Also,
False.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Also,
False.[/quote]The namecalling will STOP NOW.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]As I was readign this, I started to wonder how one might go about fixing the Cubs, and I realized, I think for the first time, just how truly fucked this org is.[/quote]Wait until you get the end of the post I have coming up later tonight. I disagree with Tim’s post and many of your comments about the so-called team meetings, but at the same time, it’s also plainly clear this team has no reason to try to ever win a championship. None.
mb2111111Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The namecalling will STOP NOW.[/quote]
I’ll pour out all of the hennepin in my fridge in penetance.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb2111111]Wait until you get the end of the post I have coming up later tonight. I disagree with Tim’s post and many of your comments about the so-called team meetings, but at the same time, it’s also plainly clear this team has no reason to try to ever win a championship. None.[/quote]It’s almost as if this org has been so fan-focused for so long, no one in the org has any idea who to really build a winning franchise.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I’ll pour out all of the hennepin in my fridge in penetance.[/quote]BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO[/quote]
It was a trick punishment – I’ve already drank all of it (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]It’s almost as if this org has been so fan-focused for so long, no one in the org has any idea who to really build a winning franchise.[/quote]I don’t think they’re focused at all and I don’t think they have to be. Big city, lots of fans, old ballpark that the overwhelming majority of baseball fans love. The only reason to care about winning is to increase profit, but with the Cubs, you’re profit is already pretty damn good to begin with. In order to win you have to spend a lot of money, which eats into those profits. Sure, more fans show up, more people buy merchandise and all of that, but you can make just as much having a smaller payroll. There’s just no incentive to win.
mb2111111Quote Reply
[quote name=mb2111111]I don’t think they’re focused at all and I don’t think they have to be. Big city, lots of fans, old ballpark that the overwhelming majority of baseball fans love. The only reason to care about winning is to increase profit, but with the Cubs, you’re profit is already pretty damn good to begin with. In order to win you have to spend a lot of money, which eats into those profits. Sure, more fans show up, more people buy merchandise and all of that, but you can make just as much having a smaller payroll. There’s just no incentive to win.[/quote]
Does this mean we should hope for Wrigley Field to be destroyed by a tornado?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I appreciate that point of view, but Reed isn’t that fast anymore either and he also slid to the wrong side of the bag. Speaking of which, people actually blamed Ramirez for not telling Reed to slide to the inside rather than the outside, which was part of the reason the tag was made.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Does this mean we should hope for Wrigley Field to be destroyed by a tornado?[/quote]
You never know!
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I appreciate that point of view, but Reed isn’t that fast anymore either and he also slid to the wrong side of the bag. Speaking of which, people actually blamed Ramirez for not telling Reed to slide to the inside rather than the outside, which was part of the reason the tag was made.[/quote]He has about average speed these days. I’m sending all but the slow runners on plays like that. You’re right that Reed slid to the wrong side of home. Maybe Ramirez should have pointed that out. I don’t know. What I do know is there’s no way that’s an out less than 20% of the time.
Like I said, I don’t want to play station to station baseball. I hate that shit. In order to take bases you have to make outs. That one was an out.
I’d also note that the only time fans complain about a coach sending a runner is when he out. In reality, we should probably complain on about 20% of the outs and 10% of the safe calls, but it’s more like 75% of the outs and 0% of the safe calls. Our anger is based on the runner being out and not whether or not it was a good send.
mb2111111Quote Reply
Let’s also not forget what impact that may have had in not just the later innings, but over the rest of the season. You don’t just send a runner to score the run. You do so to show the opposition you’re being aggressive. This brings the outfielders in a step or two. It makes it easier for the batters to get hits, especially extra base hits. If you only send a runner when it’s obvious he’s safe, the outfield doesn’t come in a step or two. It plays at normal depth most of the time and a step or two back much more often than they would otherwise.
mb2111111Quote Reply
If Reed moves to the inside part of the 3rd base line sooner and slides toward the front of the plate, he’s safe. It wasn’t a bad send. It was bad execution by Reed Johnson and some blame falls on Ramirez for being out of position on that play. He ran toward the 3rd base line from the on-deck circle and waived Reed tot he ground. He should have been on the other side of the plate waiving him toward the inside part of the plate. Once again, it’s just bad fundamental baseball by a team that belongs in the PCL.
mb2111111Quote Reply
I hadn’t seen the replay until a few minutes ago. There’s no excuse for Ramirez to be out of position on that play. We see this shit with the Cubs all the time. Recently Zambrano should have been backing up home and wasn’t there so the runner got an extra base. Throws sail over the cutoff man allowing an extra base. It’s pathetic. This is simple shit.
mb2111111Quote Reply
[quote name=mb2111111]I hadn’t seen the replay until a few minutes ago. There’s no excuse for Ramirez to be out of position on that play. We see this shit with the Cubs all the time. Recently Zambrano should have been backing up home and wasn’t there so the runner got an extra base. Throws sail over the cutoff man allowing an extra base. It’s pathetic. This is simple shit.[/quote]
I figured Rami should’ve been on the other side of the base, but it seemed like he moved out of the way to the other side as soon as he saw the ball go into LF and the pitcher ran to back up home plate. Brain farts. Reed probably should’ve seen him anyway but probably didn’t hear Rami tell him to slide to the other side of the base. Who knows anymore…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I figured Rami should’ve been on the other side of the base, but it seemed like he moved out of the way to the other side as soon as he saw the ball go into LF and the pitcher ran to back up home plate. Brain farts. Reed probably should’ve seen him anyway but probably didn’t hear Rami tell him to slide to the other side of the base. Who knows anymore…[/quote]Yeah, it’s not a big deal to me. Ramirez messed up. Johnson messed up when he didn’t come inside quick enough.
mb2111111Quote Reply
[quote name=mb2111111]Yeah, it’s not a big deal to me. Ramirez messed up. Johnson messed up when he didn’t come inside quick enough.[/quote]
My point of view is that there’s much more blame to be put on Reed than Rami. Yesterday I thought he was going to stop at 3B and when it kept going I actually yelled at the TV because after the multiple TOOTBLANs the night before I thought it was stupid to try to test the Royals’ arms. I probably would’ve just breathed a sigh of relief afterwards but still thought it was stupid if he were safe (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
At least Reed has the excuse that his momentum carried him so far out of the 3rd base line that it was hard to get back to the inside. Ramirez has no excuse. You’re on the other side of the plate every single time. You’re taught to be there in Little League.
mb2111111Quote Reply
I didn’t have time to read b’s series preview, but did he pick 2 of 3 for the Royals? I told my brother that the Cubs would win Friday and lose the next two. I told him Duffy would have the best start of his career to this point because the Cubs swing at literally everything. Which they did. (dying laughing)
mb2111111Quote Reply
Duffy’s big problem so far has been his control so I just figured against the Cubs it’s not that big of a deal. It’s not like he was going to walk 6 or 7 Cubs hitters. I could throw 100 pitches in the dirt and I wouldn’t walk 6 or 7 hitters.
mb2111111Quote Reply
[quote name=mb2111111]I didn’t have time to read b’s series preview, but did he pick 2 of 3 for the Royals? I told my brother that the Cubs would win Friday and lose the next two. I told him Duffy would have the best start of his career to this point because the Cubs swing at literally everything. Which they did. (dying laughing)[/quote]
He actually picked the Cubs to win the series, and they might have if stuff went right. Maybe if he keeps picking the Cubs to lose for the rest of the season, they’ll win the World Series.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Royals made almost as many mistakes as the Cubs on Friday. That game was embarrassing. Despite their mistakes they win the ball if Getz fields it in the 9th. The Cubs were lucky to not get swept in this series. The Cubs had Duffy on the ropes a couple of times, but Zambrano was on the ropes all night as well. I think he had allowed 8 or 9 hits through 5 innings. His last two innings last night were the best two of the night. I thought the Royals would get more than the 2 they did that inning plus Big Z was helped with a couple inning ending double plays. Today’s game never felt that close.
The most surprising thing to me at this series was the lack of Cubs fans compared to the last 5 or 6 years. It was obviously a majority of Royals fans. I didn’t expect that. i thought Friday night might be 50/50 and then the Cubs would dominate the weekend games. Not so. There were probably 2 Royals fans for every Cubs fans. It was pretty cool actually.
They have a bright future ahead with the middle of the order they have. They have the fans in place and they have more who are willing to come out to Kaufmann if they show they can win. I expect the next time the Cubs play in Kansas City it will be 85% Royals fans.
mb2111111Quote Reply
Through 5 innings last night, Z had allowed 11 baserunners.
mb2111111Quote Reply
Zambrano walked 3 and struck out 2. He’s lucky he didn’t get clobbered. No pitcher can have consistent success without striking out (far) more batters than he walks.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]He actually picked the Cubs to win the series, and they might have if stuff went right. Maybe if he keeps picking the Cubs to lose for the rest of the season, they’ll win the World Series.[/quote]
You have stumbled upon my master plan (dying laughing). I still kind of liked the Cubs in the series. These teams sure do love making dumb mistakes.
BerseliusQuote Reply
What’s the rule for on-deck batters? I know they are supposed to get in position, but Ramirez is kind of slow and that play happened in like six seconds. You can definitely see Ramirez try to get into position and wave Reed to slide, and my thought was that he didn’t want to run into the pitcher trying to back up home plate and get an interference call. Not sure.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’m not sure what the rules are, but on-deck hitters get in position all the time. Once that ball leaves the infield Ramirez has to get on the other side of home plate. Instead, he waited in the on-deck circle and then when Reed rounded 3rd he ran up a little bit and motioned Reed to slide. He needed to be on the other side of the plate and telling him to slide toward the front part of home. Mistakes happen. That was definitely one of them, but those are the types of mistakes that should just not happen very often. For the Cubs they happen all the time.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb2111111]Wait until you get the end of the post I have coming up later tonight. I disagree with Tim’s post and many of your comments about the so-called team meetings, but at the same time, it’s also plainly clear this team has no reason to try to ever win a championship. None.[/quote]
The Hendry Brain-Trust meetings? Yeah, no way Hendry comes out and says, “We are done this year. No hope left and trying to trade anyone we can.” The fans that are still going to games now would dwindle down quite a bit and no team would offer them what any of the players are worth. I still don’t see how any MLB GM could honestly believe this club isn’t going to become a seller trying to dump salary as soon as possible.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’m not sure what the rules are, but on-deck hitters get in position all the time. Once that ball leaves the infield Ramirez has to get on the other side of home plate. Instead, he waited in the on-deck circle and then when Reed rounded 3rd he ran up a little bit and motioned Reed to slide. He needed to be on the other side of the plate and telling him to slide toward the front part of home. Mistakes happen. That was definitely one of them, but those are the types of mistakes that should just not happen very often. For the Cubs they happen all the time.[/quote]
Yeah, I thought it was strange that there were six seconds elapsed and Rami had just barely gotten into the picture. I thought he thought Reed wouldn’t be sent.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]As I was readign this, I started to wonder how one might go about fixing the Cubs, and I realized, I think for the first time, just how truly fucked this org is.[/quote]I was explaining to my wife, a casual fan. She was horrified. Then I got depressed because I thought I must be making it sound worse than it is. But no.
binkyQuote Reply
Yeah, BB, that’s basically my argument. I’ll post that in a few minutes.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]I was explaining to my wife, a casual fan. She was horrified. Then I got depressed because I thought I must be making it sound worse than it is. But no.[/quote]
If she wasn’t horrified, then you were doing it wrong.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/some-thoughts-on-the-so-called-team-meetings.html
mb21Quote Reply